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Cohen & Steers REIT And Preferred Income Fund: Not Just A Real Estate Offering

Summary RNP is managed by REIT specialist Cohen & Steers. RNP does not, however, have a strict real estate focus. It might be better to look at RNP as a balanced fund of sorts. Cohen & Steers REIT and Preferred Income Fund (NYSE: RNP ) is an interesting animal that tries to combine in one fund two different investment focuses. For investors seeking simplicity, this could be a good option. For those who want more control over their portfolios, you’d be better off buying a real estate investment trust (REIT) fund and a preferred fund separately. Who is Cohen & Steers? I always include a comment about this company’s origin when I write about it because Cohen & Steers isn’t a household name in finance. But it is one if you are remotely connected to the REIT space. That’s because Martin Cohen and Robert Steers were among the first to create a company dedicated to investing in REITs. They basically helped popularize the space for institutional and individual investors. And, more important, the company they created has lots of experience. If you are thinking about outsourcing your REIT investments to anyone, Cohen & Steers should be on your short list. So, from that standpoint, I like anything they do that involves real estate investing. Only half the fund But that’s only half of what Cohen & Steers REIT and Preferred Income Fund does. The other half of the fund invests in preferred shares. While there’s some overlap, since REITs often issue preferred shares, that doesn’t make Cohen & Steers an expert in, say, preferreds issued by insurance companies. That’s not to suggest that they don’t have the ability to do analyze such securities, just that their business has historically been structured around REITs. And this fund, with only about 10% of its preferred portfolio in REIT preferreds, is definitely more than just REITs. But what exactly is in RNP? Roughly 50% of the fund is, indeed, in REITs. The largest holdings are basically top-quality players. It’s fairly diversified across nine major sectors, with offices, apartments, and regional malls accounted for nearly half of its real estate exposure. Nothing exciting here. Preferred stocks and debt make up the rest of the fund. That side is concentrated in four sectors. Banking preferred stocks alone make up nearly 55% of this side of the portfolio. Insurance, real estate, and utility preferreds are the other big areas. This speaks more to the nature of the preferred market than to anything else, since these group of industries tends to make the most use of preferred stock. It’s worth taking note of the real estate sector’s 10% position on this half of the fund, which means that REITs, in some form, make up about 55% of RNP’s overall portfolio. The big takeaway from that is that this is not a pure real estate investment trust fund. It was never intended to be, but you should keep this fact in the back of your mind if you own it and front and center if you are looking for a pure REIT fund. How’s it done? Looking at total return, which includes distributions, RNP’s trailing ten year return through year-end 2014 was roughly 8% based on the share price (a little under 7% based on the CEF’s net asset value) according to Morningstar. That’s not bad for a fund with an income focus and is roughly in line with the S&P 500 Index over that span. That, of course, assumes the reinvestment of dividends. The price of RNP is down roughly 30% over that span if you used the dividends. Note, however, that dividends over the last six years have totaled roughly seven dollars or so. That pretty much makes up for the entire share price decline right there. While it’s true that the shares are worth less, you have been paid reasonably well along the way… With the other four years of dividends providing the bulk of your take-home return over the span. So, overall, this is a fine fund if you want a decently performing REIT and preferred combo offering. But you’ll need to keep another factor in mind. The big problem RNP makes use of leverage. Toward the end of last year, the fund’s leverage was at around 27%. Leverage is a double-edge sword, aiding performance in good markets and exacerbating losses in bad ones. For example, in 2007 the fund’s return was -27%, according to Morningstar. In 2008 it returned -60%. Those are hard losses to watch unfold and include dividend payments. That said, in 2009 RNP was up 90%, including dividends, and in 2010 it advanced another 50%. So while the fund owns what some would consider “safer” investments, this fund is anything but conservative. This is a fact that shouldn’t be taken lightly. Note, too, that the fund’s inherent exposure to financial preferred stocks on the preferred side of the portfolio were a huge drag during the financial-led 2007 to 2009 recession, when the CEF was hard hit in the market. This type of volatility doesn’t make RNP a bad fund, it just means it’s probably not appropriate for conservative investors. Expenses, meanwhile, at around 1.8%, are elevated by the costs of that leverage. Right now the shares trade at about a 12% discount to NAV. That’s roughly in-line with the fund’s five- and 10-year average discounts of roughly 10%, according to the Closed-End Fund Association. So RNP is hardly on sale right now. But you will be picking up a yield of around 6.75%. At the end of the day The question you have to ask is if that amount of income, most of which has recently been dividend income, is worth the share price volatility that Cohen & Steers REIT and Preferred Income Fund can experience. And the fund is really only appropriate if you want a mix of REIT and preferred exposure in one fund. At the end of the day, I’d say this is a specialty fund most appropriate for those with strong stomachs. It would be a good way, for example, to outsource “boring” sectors and asset classes while still staying true to an aggressive overall investment approach.

Southern Company Doesn’t Look As Good As It Did 12 Months Ago

Summary I’ve recommended buying SO twice over the past 12 months, once at a dividend yield of 5.00% and once at 4.84%. At the current price per share of $49.70, shares are yielding only 4.19%, which I believe is too low, considering the slow rate of dividend growth. I will reconsider if the stock drops by 10% or more. Shares in Southern Company (NYSE: SO ) are currently trading at a price of $49.70, which is $8.32 or 20.1% higher than twelve months ago. I’ve recommended buying SO twice over the past 12 months, once in January of 2014, when the dividend yield reached 5.00%, and once in June, at a current yield of 4.84%. With the recent growth in share price however, the yield has gone down and investors getting in at the current level will get a yield on cost of only 4.19%. SO data by YCharts The dividend growth rate for SO is very low, at 3.74% over the past 3 years and 3.90% annually over the past 5 years. This means it would take 5 years to get back to the yield on cost of 5.0% investors could get 12 months ago. SO Dividend Per Share (5 Year Growth) data by YCharts SO’s revenue for the current fiscal year is expected to reach $18.17 billion, which is an increase of 6.9% to last year’s $17.09 billion. For next year, a further 3.1% increase to $18.73 billion is expected. The trailing twelve month revenues stand at $18.38 billion. The average price to sales ratio for SO over the past 5 years has been 2.2, which is well above the industry average of 1.5 . The current market cap is $44.72 billion. Here’s what SO’s p/s ratios look like at today’s prices:   Dollar amounts Price to sales ratio % above 5 year average Price per share at p/s = 2.2 Trailing twelve month revenue $18.38 billion 2.43 10.5% $44.98 Current FY expected revenue $18.17 billion 2.46 11.8% $44.45 Next FY expected revenue $18.73 billion 2.39 8.6% $45.76 SO Revenue (5 Year Growth) data by YCharts Southern’s 5 year average p/e ratio stands at 18.7. If we aply this multiple to the trailing twelve month earnings per share of $2.34, we get a price per share of $43.76, which is well below the current price. Earnings per share for the current fiscal year are expected to be somewhat higher, at $2.80, putting the forward p/e ratio at 17.8. For next fiscal year, EPS is expected to grow a further 2.5%, to $2.87, which means the 1 year forward p/e ratio is 17.3. SO PE Ratio (NYSE: TTM ) data by YCharts SO Current Ratio (Quarterly) data by YCharts I usually look for current ratios in excess of 1.0, as this indicates current assets are larger than current liabilities. However, with utility companies such as SO, a slightly lower current ratio isn’t an immediate cause for concern, as income streams tend to be very steady and reliable. As we can see in the next graph, SO’s long term debt has slowly but surely been growing in recent years. Low interest rates mean the company is more than able to finance this debt, as net interest costs over the past 12 months were only $800 million, or 4.35% of the company’s trailing twelve month revenue. SO Total Long Term Debt (Quarterly) data by YCharts Conclusion: Buying SO at a dividend yield of 5.0% would have been a great idea. However, considering the company’s slow dividend growth rate, investors getting in now would likely have to wait for roughly 5 years to get to a yield on cost of 5%. Both on a p/e and p/s ratio basis, the company appears expensive compared to historical averages. The long term debt is growing, which isn’t a problem so long as interest rates stay low. I don’t see any reasons to buy at these levels, but may reconsider if the stock drops by 10% or more from its current price of $49.70. Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor and do not provide specific investment advice. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. It is up to investors to make the correct decision after necessary research. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.

Utilities ETF: XLU No. 1 Select Sector SPDR In 2014

Summary The Utilities exchange-traded fund finished first by return among the nine Select Sector SPDRs in 2014. As it did so, the ETF posted the best annual percentage gain in its 16-year history. However, seasonality analysis indicates it could be facing a tough first quarter. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLU ) in 2014 ranked No. 1 by return among the Select Sector SPDRs that break the S&P 500 into nine chunks. On an adjusted closing daily share price basis, XLU rocketed to $47.22 from $36.68, a zooming of $10.54, or 28.74 percent. Accordingly, the ETF outdistanced its parent proxy SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) by an extraordinary 15.27 percentage points. (XLU closed at $47.35 Wednesday.) XLU also ranked No. 1 among the sector SPDRs in the fourth quarter, as it outpaced SPY by 8.28 percentage points. In addition, XLU ranked No. 1 among the sector SPDRs in December, as it outran SPY by 3.83 percentage points. Overall, XLU posted the best annual percentage return in its 16-year history: Its previous record was set in 2003, when it swelled 26.46 percent. XLU appears key to analysis of market sentiment based on the comparative behaviors of the Select Sector SPDRs . If XLU ranks near No. 1 by return during a given period, then I believe market participants are in risk-off mode; if XLU ranks near No. 9 by return over a given period, then I think market participants are in risk-on mode. Figure 1: XLU Monthly Change, 2014 Vs. 1999-2013 Mean (click to enlarge) Source: This J.J.’s Risky Business chart is based on analyses of adjusted closing monthly share prices at Yahoo Finance . XLU behaved a lot better in 2014 than it did during its initial 15 full years of existence based on the monthly means calculated by employing data associated with that historical time frame (Figure 1). The same data set shows the average year’s weakest quarter was the first, with a relatively small negative return, and its strongest quarter was the second, with an absolutely large positive return. The ETF’s October 8.03 percent gain was its sixth-highest monthly return ever. Figure 2: XLU Monthly Change, 2014 Versus 1999-2013 Median (click to enlarge) Source: This J.J.’s Risky Business chart is based on analyses of adjusted closing monthly share prices at Yahoo Finance. XLU also performed a lot better in 2014 than it did during its initial 15 full years of existence based on the monthly medians calculated by using data associated with that historical time frame (Figure 2). The same data set shows the average year’s weakest quarter was the first, with a relatively small positive return, and its strongest quarter was the second, with an absolutely large positive return. Clearly, this means there is no historical statistical tendency for the ETF to explode in Q1. Figure 3: XLU’s Top 10 Holdings and P/E-G Ratios, Jan. 7 (click to enlarge) Note: The XLU holding-weight-by-percentage scale is on the left (green), and the company price/earnings-to-growth ratio scale is on the right (red). Source: This J.J.’s Risky Business chart is based on data at the XLU microsite and Yahoo Finance (both current as of Jan. 7). In the wake of the sea change in bias at the U.S. Federal Reserve , away from loosening and toward tightening, XLU’s record-setting performance in 2014 kind of makes sense, at least in an equity market where share prices are primarily driven by the ebb and flow of asset purchases made by the central bank under one or another of its so-called quantitative-easing programs. It is worth mentioning in this context that the Fed announced the conclusion of purchases under its latest QE program Oct. 29 and that the ends of purchases under its previous two formal QE programs are associated with both a correction and a bear market in large-capitalization stocks, as evidenced by SPY’s dipping -17.19 percent in 2010 and dropping -21.69 percent in 2011. It is also worth mentioning that XLU’s big-time performance last year means that I, as a growth-and-value guy, see neither growth nor value in most of the utilities sector, as indicated by the above chart (Figure 3) and numbers released by S&P Senior Index Analyst Howard Silverblatt Dec. 31. At that time, Silverblatt pegged the P/E-G ratio of the S&P 500 utilities sector as 3.43. In the current environment, I therefore would be completely unsurprised should XLU continue to behave well in the current quarter, not on an absolute basis but on a relative basis (i.e., in comparison with the other Select Sector SPDRs and with SPY). On balance, the ETF may not produce gains, but it might produce losses smaller than those of its siblings. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein by the author do not constitute an investment recommendation, and they are unsuitable for employment in the making of investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein address only certain aspects of potential investment in any securities and cannot substitute for comprehensive investment analysis. The opinions expressed herein are based on an incomplete set of information, illustrative in nature, and limited in scope. In addition, the opinions expressed herein reflect the author’s best judgment as of the date of publication, and they are subject to change without notice.