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February May Be A Blessing Or A Blessing In Disguise For Investors In Nigeria

Nigeria is set for elections next month. The presence of Boko Haram is growing. The dividedness of the Christian and Muslim communities and political parties is concerning. If the election isn’t certain, things could go from bad to worse for Nigeria and investors. Several weeks ago, I opined that Global X MSCI Nigeria Index ETF (NYSEARCA: NGE ) may very well be a great pick-up after oil, tax-loss selling and other market externalities play themselves out. Since then, the price has still been thrust down by oil and currency devaluation. This is a great concern over the nation’s GDP and government budget, the bulk of which are derived from oil. With elections due up next month, how in the world does anyone see opportunity now? First off, I would like to point out that non-oil sector growth has vastly outpaced estimates and has given some relief to many concerns of global entities. Agriculture has done surprisingly well and on a micro level, there are some companies in Nigeria that seem to beat estimates and perform very well, even while Nigeria is in the midst of a potential panic. A great example is Seven Up Bottling Company of Nigeria, PLC. The demographics of Nigeria are also important. The younger people make up the workforce and spending, leading most costs to not be on healthcare unlike MDCs. Spending on healthcare is actually one of the least economically fruitful ways of spending money. Think of it this way; you have an Oldsmobile that you drive to work every day. The car is reliable, until one day it just goes kaput. Instead of spending money on making yourself better off economically, be that a new suit or what-have-you, you have to put that money into getting that car back to where it was a few days ago. You have not gained anything from that spending and that spending is on a service that, spare parts, only makes money for the mechanic(s). The same can be said for health. You are not buying something, an asset, instead you are receiving a treatment. It is nontransferable and only valuable once it is given. For more long term reasons for NGE, please read my other article . Let’s look ahead to what’s important now. Nigeria has an election coming up. For those of you not quite familiar, I will give a brief summary of the situation and the possible conclusions and ramifications for investors. I shan’t go much past the now. I think this is more important currently, but you can read more about other long term aspects elsewhere in conjunction with this. I do this separation because I am long the entire Nigerian market, but currently, I am bearish for the short term. The President of Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan, is up for reelection. His base of support is the oil-rich Niger delta and the southern portion of the country. His opponent, Muhammadu Buhari, is expected to be favored in the northern portion of the country, which is believed to be primarily Islamic, and has been the boiling pot of attacks from terrorist group, Boko Haram. Boko Haram has been attacking much more frequently and it is highly feared that it will jeopardize not only the ability of people to vote, but also the legitimacy of the vote itself. In Nigeria, a president has to win a majority and obtain 25% of the vote from 2/3 of all states. If not all are able to vote, Nigeria may not have a clear winner and with Boko Haram attacking and Christian-Muslim, South-North tensions escalating, it is quite possible, even probable, that the post-election climate will be that of violence. Let’s examine the possibilities. If Goodluck Jonathan wins with the majority and other stipulations needed, the Nigerian market will likely bounce from the loss of uncertainty. Investment in the country may slowly return, after an overwhelming capital flight last year. That would be a bullish sign and would resolve one of the few issues barring my full-on investment in Nigeria. If Buhari were to win with the necessary requirements, this may not seem so bullish. The oil giants have really taken a shine to Jonathan and may not think, and perhaps for reasons, that Buhari will be as amenable to them in passing legislation to reduce vandalism, tax burdens, etc. This would be bearish, but not completely devastating. If no one were to clearly win, then it is highly likely that a physical struggle will ensue. Those with investments still in the country may flee for fear of nationalization or damages. It is evident in Nigeria’s history that this is a real possibility. Guinea, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Mali, and Ivory Coast are just a few nearby countries that have experienced instability in the past few years. We have seen a recession in an already vacuum of wealth, the Central African Republic, due to insurgency which overtook that country and a complete market collapse, of 70 to 80% plus, in the Ivory Coast due to riots in Abidjan. Instability doesn’t bode well for investors, even in a stable nation like the US. Here, when an election is hotly contested and speculative, the market bounces and drops at the drop of a hat. That said, Nigeria is not a bad investment. It just isn’t a good one right now, but if Nigeria’s ducks are in a row, you better believe I will be the first to dump a pile of cash into it.

6 High-Yield Bond CEFs Trump ETFs Like HYG And JNK

Summary After a late 2014 sell-off, high yield bond funds currently offer very attractive mid- to high single-digit yields. Though they contain significant exposure to credit risk, high yield bonds have a relatively low sensitivity to rising interest rates. Investors interested in ETFs like HYG or JNK should consider the more than 30 closed-end funds that focus on high yield debt. Because of their unique structure, closed-end bond funds are able to generate substantially higher distribution income, sometimes with less credit or interest rate risk. High-Yield Bonds can be an important addition to a diversified taxable income-seeking portfolio, generating significant yields with less interest rate risk than alternatives including government or investment grade corporate funds. Accordingly, leading High-Yield Bond ETFs like SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: JNK ) and iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: HYG ) have accumulated combined assets of more than $24 billion. However, investors – especially individual investors – in JNK and HYG should consider the closed-end fund alternatives for high yield bond income. This article will examine six closed-end funds that specialize in high yield bonds that provide superior yields with a similar risk profile. For an in-depth examination of the risks and rewards of high yield bond CEFs please refer to “In Search of Income: High Yield Bond CEFs Part I & Part II . Understanding the Closed-End Fund Structure Closed-End Funds (CEFs) are a form of mutual funds that have existed in the United States since 1893. While CEFs are actually the “original” type of mutual fund traded on US exchanges, they are far less common than the “open-ended” type of mutual funds that most investors associate with the term “mutual fund”. CEFs represent less than 2% ($298 billion) of the $15 trillion mutual fund market. CEFs are used for a variety of active strategies in both the equity and fixed income categories, and are most commonly associated with income generating strategies such as high yield bond investing. The closed-end fund structure is unique among market-listed fund structures because of its combination of three characteristics: Permanent capital – CEFs issue a fixed number of shares at IPO and do not subsequently create or redeem shares except in rare instances. This provides fund managers with permanent capital that is not subject to the whims of investor redemption requests. Continuous trading / market pricing – investors that want to transact shares of a CEF do so on the open market at any point during trading hours, buying from and selling to other individual market participants. Importantly, this leads to the existence of divergences between share price and share value NAV. Use of Leverage – CEFs frequently choose to use moderate amounts of leverage to enhance returns on investor capital. While this does also increase risk and volatility, this leverage can be attractive to investors because borrowing costs required to support it tend to be much lower than any alternative source of leverage financing accessible to individual investors. Closed-end funds and Exchange-Traded Funds are often compared to mutual funds because each type often focuses on a particular sector of the market. Perhaps because the mutual fund industry historically enjoyed high fees, sales loads and profitability the exchanged traded funds focusing on similar sectors have grown in popularity. However, the Closed-End Fund segment is often overlooked for investors interested in a specific sector. Advantages vs. ETFs – Exchange traded funds have exploded in popularity in the past two decades in part because they are exceptionally cost/tax efficient ways to get exposure to certain passive strategies. However, the CEF structure has several advantages over ETFs when investing in segments such as high yield debt. First, CEFs are actively managed, enabling seasoned fixed income portfolio managers to select specific attractive bond issues rather than “buying the market” as an index fund does. Second, CEFs have permanent capital not subject to redemptions which is of particular importance in sectors like high yield debt, where herd mentality can lead to investor redemptions at precisely the moment when bonds are least easily sold, and can make it hardest for ETF managers to “be greedy when the market is fearful”. CEF managers have ability to ride out – and capitalize on – these panics. Third, CEFs are able to employ low-cost leverage to enhance returns. Finally, because CEFs trade a prices significantly different (and typically lower) than their net asset values, savvy investors have opportunity to earn greater yields (earn the income on $100 of bonds with only $90 of investment) as well as potential for capital appreciation. Advantages vs. Mutual Funds – Standard Mutual funds, technically classified as “open-end mutual funds”, offer tremendous variety of both active and passive strategies. However, closed-end funds have several advantages on them as well. In addition to the permanent capital, leverage, and discount pricing described above, CEFs offer continuous liquidity and the ability to control price at which you buy and sell with limit orders, rather than once daily trading after market hours at “blind” prices. Comparing Investment Options With those structural differences in mind, we’ll compare two of the largest high yield bond ETFs, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF and SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF , to six leading high yield closed-end funds ( AWF , GHY , HIO , IVH , NHS , and HYI ). While the selected funds represent only 6 of 33 CEFs in the High Yield category, they provide a good cross-section of fund sponsors, sizes, and risk metrics. (click to enlarge) Income Generation The principal motivation for owning high yield bond funds is, unsurprisingly, high yield. Many high-yield ETF investors may be surprised to find that CEF offerings in the High Yield Bond segment offer substantially higher risk adjusted yields than their ETF counterparts. While there are many factors to consider in comparing the opportunities and risks presented by ETFs and CEFs, the 250+ basis point difference in yield is hard to ignore. (click to enlarge) Note that, because they are actively managed, closed-end fund distributions at times the include return of capital, long-term capital gains or short-term capital gains. However, for the funds we are examining, those factors are virtually insignificant, as shown in the below table. (click to enlarge) Price to Value (aka the closed-end discount) As mentioned above, a core feature of closed-end funds is their tendency to trade at prices that vary considerably from their underlying value, or NAV. This difference is commonly referred to as the premium (or discount) to NAV. When prices are below NAV (which historically has been the case about 90% of the time), the discounts created create two major advantages for CEF investors. First, purchasing at a discount enhances yields since an investor can own the rights to the income generated from a hypothetical $10 of net assets with only $9 of investment. Second, for investors willing to actively manage their holdings, funds purchased at particularly wide discounts can be sold at narrower discounts – or even premiums – for capital gain treatment that enhance the after tax returns from a fund. High yield bond CEF discounts are currently in the 10% range, though wide variation exists. ETFs rarely have meaningful or sustained discounts to NAV. (click to enlarge) Risks Return potential from an investment must be viewed in the context of the risk investors are taking. Bond investors are primarily exposed to two types of risk: (1) default risk, as measured by credit rating, and (2) interest rate risk, as measured by “duration”. The high yield bond sector generally carries moderate to high default risk (the “junk” in junk bonds…) but tend to have low durations, and thus low interest rate risks. As many investors are concerned about the specter of interest rate increases, the shorter duration of all funds – CEF and ETF alike – in the category is attractive to many. Comparing across funds, CEFs are generally equivalent on credit rating and superior on duration, in many cases even when the amplification effect of leverage is considered. (click to enlarge) Expenses Because CEFS are actively managed, adjusted expense ratios typically exceed ETFs by 50-100 basis points. While index ETF fees are 0.4 to 0.5%, CEFs range from a little less than 1% to little more than 1.5%, after adjustment for cost of leverage. (click to enlarge) * According to Morningstar: “By regulation, closed-end funds utilizing debt for leverage must report their interest expense as part of expense ratio. This happens even if the leverage is profitable. Funds utilizing preferred shares or non-1940 Act leverage are not required to report the cost of leverage as part of expense ratio. To make useful comparison between closed-end funds and with both open-end funds and exchange-traded funds, the adjusted expense ratio excludes internal expense from the calculation. In addition, we adjust the calculation’s denominator, basing it on average daily net assets.” Conclusion The high yield bond sector is interesting at current – regardless of investment vehicle chosen – because of its relative lack of interest rate risk and its recent re-pricing in response to the falling price of oil. Investors considering high yield ETFs should give a close look at the CEF alternatives, primarily for the enhanced income distributions and secondarily for the potential gain from a narrowing price discount.

A Low-Tech Index Offering Exposure To The High-Tech Sector

By Robert Goldsborough Investors craving a big helping of large-cap growth stocks with a strong tilt toward the technology sector can consider PowerShares QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ) . A perennial favorite among U.S. large-cap growth investors, QQQ is the sixth most actively traded U.S. exchange-traded fund and has the sixth-most assets of any U.S. ETF. QQQ also offers exposure to leading Nasdaq-listed consumer discretionary firms (18% of assets) and biotech firms (15% of assets) and tracks the cap-weighted Nasdaq-100 Index, which includes the 100 largest nonfinancial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite Index. Given its narrow sector focus, this ETF would work best as a satellite holding in a diversified portfolio. This is a high-quality portfolio with a mega-cap tilt, with more than 87% of assets invested in large-cap companies and more than 93% of assets invested in companies with Morningstar Economic Moat Ratings, those that Morningstar’s equity analysts deem as having sustainable competitive advantages. However, given this fund’s sector tilts, it is more volatile than a broad portfolio of large-cap stocks. For example, over the past 10 years, it has had a volatility of return of 18.0% compared with 14.6% for the S&P 500. When considering whether to invest, investors should take note of the fact that stocks in this fund make up almost the entire 20% tech component of the S&P 500. Despite the relatively low overlap, QQQ has a high correlation in performance with the S&P 500 (90% over the past 10 years) and an even higher correlation with the large technology ETF Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA: XLK ) (98% over the past 10 years). Fundamental View The U.S. technology sector dominates QQQ and accounts for fully 58% of its assets, and large-cap tech firms’ performance determines its fortunes. The single largest dynamic affecting the tech sector right now is the shift to mobile computing and growth in cloud computing. Mobile and cloud computing are truly disruptive forces in the tech sector. As users shift to mobile devices, PC sales continue to fall. Global PC shipments dropped by 10% in 2013 and were flat to slightly down in 2014, with developed markets stabilizing but emerging markets seeing declines, as users shift to tablets. Despite sluggishness in PC sales, the total number of devices sold is expected to rise meaningfully in the years to come, as consumers and businesses adapt to smartphones and tablets. Our analysts project that some 2.6 billion-plus computing devices will ship in 2017–more than twice the total number of devices that shipped in 2012. Across the tech sector, firms are reshaping their portfolios for this ongoing transition. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) in 2013 acquired Nokia’s (NYSE: NOK ) handset business and has developed the Windows Phone operating system, while Intel (NASDAQ: INTC ) has invested heavily in producing microprocessors optimized for mobile devices. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) leads the marketplace with its iPhone and iPad, continually gaining share from struggling competitors. And Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) (NASDAQ: GOOGL ) long has had a dominant position in Internet search and has aggressively invested in its Android operating system for smartphones and tablets, providing it free of any license fees. Having Google software on the device helps to ensure that when users search, they use Google. Enterprise hardware suppliers also are reshaping their businesses. Broadly, we are confident in tech firms’ positioning for growth in the medium term. Tech firms generally are procyclical in their performance, and with continued economic strength, tech firms generally should do well. The Gartner Group estimates that tech spending grew 3.2% in 2014, measured in constant currency, to $3.8 trillion and forecasts a growth rate of 3.2% in 2015. As large tech firms manage and reshape their businesses to adapt to secular declines in PC demand, we expect that they will continue to find ways to benefit from smartphone and tablet growth. To be sure, not all technology players will win in a world dominated by mobile computing and cloud computing. For instance, we view cloud computing as a moderate threat to all IT infrastructure suppliers, as cloud service providers are technically savvy customers. So as enterprises migrate their infrastructure to these service providers, infrastructure suppliers’ pricing power likely will decrease. Apple makes up 13% of the assets of QQQ and is far and away this ETF’s largest holding. Apple surged in 2014 after a turbulent 2013. The company benefited from strong earnings reports and guidance that beat expectations, driven by solid iPhone unit sales in both developed markets and in China. Although iPad sales have continued to lag, investors have been enthused by the launches of two larger-screen iPhones, Apple Pay, and Apple Watch and what it means for Apple’s continued ability to innovate. We expect Apple to remain a leader in the premium smartphone and tablet markets for years to come. Portfolio Construction Known as the Cubes or the Qubes, this ETF tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, which was created in 1985 to represent the Nasdaq Composite Index’s 100 largest nonfinancial stocks by market capitalization. The top 10 holdings account for a significant 47% of the portfolio. While Apple has a narrow moat, this ETF’s next-largest eight holdings all have wide moats. The average market cap of this fund’s holdings is about $96.6 billion. The Nasdaq-100 index rebalances once a year, although it has on occasion conducted special index rebalances in order to prevent any one company from having an outsize impact on the index (the index caps any one company’s weighting at 24%). The last special index rebalance took place in 2011 and was driven by the continued overweighting of Apple. Fees This ETF is relatively inexpensive, with an annual expense ratio of 0.20%. Its estimated holding cost is slightly higher, at 0.25%. Estimated holding costs are primarily composed of the expense ratio but also include transaction costs, sampling error, and share-lending revenue. One alternative is Fidelity Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ: ONEQ ) , which tracks the broader Nasdaq Composite Index. ONEQ contains 1,920 stocks listed on the Nasdaq, making it a much broader portfolio than QQQ’s. Given its broader holdings, ONEQ is less top-heavy, with the top-10 names accounting for about 31.5% of total assets. ONEQ also includes Nasdaq-listed financial stocks, which make up about 6.5% of its portfolio. The average market cap of ONEQ’s holdings (about $31.5 billion) is considerably less than that of the holdings in the Cubes (about $97.0 billion). This can be attributed in part to ONEQ’s 17% exposure to small-cap stocks. ONEQ charges 0.21%, with an estimated holding cost of 0.12%. A cheaper and less volatile large-cap growth fund is Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSEARCA: VUG ) , which has an expense ratio of 0.09%. The performance of QQQ is highly correlated with the performance of VUG (96% over the past five years). Similarly, another large-growth option is iShares Russell 1000 Growth (NYSEARCA: IWF ) , which charges 0.20%. With just more than one third the holdings of ONEQ, IWF is more concentrated than the Fidelity offering. At the same time, it’s far more diverse than QQQ. Even so, QQQ’s performance is highly correlated with the performance of IWF (96% over the past five years). Those seeking more-concentrated exposure to tech names can consider Technology Select Sector SPDR ( XLK ) , which carries a 0.16% expense ratio and holds 71 companies, all of which are information technology and related services, software, telecommunications equipment and services, Internet, and semiconductors. A less-liquid alternative is Vanguard Information Technology ETF (NYSEARCA: VGT ) , which holds 393 companies and charges just 0.12%. Disclosure: Morningstar, Inc. licenses its indexes to institutions for a variety of reasons, including the creation of investment products and the benchmarking of existing products. When licensing indexes for the creation or benchmarking of investment products, Morningstar receives fees that are mainly based on fund assets under management. As of Sept. 30, 2012, AlphaPro Management, BlackRock Asset Management, First Asset, First Trust, Invesco, Merrill Lynch, Northern Trust, Nuveen, and Van Eck license one or more Morningstar indexes for this purpose. These investment products are not sponsored, issued, marketed, or sold by Morningstar. Morningstar does not make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in any investment product based on or benchmarked against a Morningstar index.