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Am I Crazy Enough To Short Volatility Here?

Recent volatility in stocks has presented yet another opportunity to profit. The VXX has moved up sharply after I went long and as a result, I sold my position. I’m now back to being short the VXX on a bet that the markets will calm down this week. Early last week I wrote a piece about how I had gotten short volatility and then reversed quickly after realizing the market was moving against me. That proved to be a fortunate thing to do as I missed the big move up in volatility (in the good way) by not being short. As I detailed in the linked article, I chose to get long right as I sold out of my short position via the short VXX ETF (NASDAQ: XIV ) and moved into a long position in the VIX ETF (NYSEARCA: VXX ) while hedging with covered calls. In this way, I wanted to capture huge premiums that were available on VXX call options and also take advantage of what looked like a coming move up in volatility. As it turns out, that was the way volatility moved last week and the VXX closed up huge on the week. I was fortunate enough to capture most of that move but by hedging with short calls, I did give up some potential upside. Still, being long the VXX for four trading days and hedging with calls netted me a 6% total gain in four days; not bad work if you can get it. The flip from short to long volatility certainly worked out in my favor and given the gains that I achieved in such a short time span, I carefully considered my next move for this week. In doing so, I considered where the VXX had come from and how far it had moved since having a big downturn. This is a one year chart of the VXX and what it shows, as most of us know, is that VXX tends to spike when it does go up and then fall precipitously seemingly without warning. (click to enlarge) I started shorting VXX back in October during the mini-crash that roiled stock markets and since that time, have had pretty good results getting long and short volatility at different times. The most recent spike that has driven VXX up to as high as $37 seems to be running out of steam, in this humble trader’s opinion. And therefore, I’ve decided once more get short volatility via the XIV, the ETF that provides the inverse, unleveraged return of the VXX. For reference, I sold out of the VXX at $36.63 and bought the XIV at $26.45 a few moments later. If you like, of course, you can just short VXX but that’s expensive and difficult to do so just buying XIV is much cleaner. At any rate, the decision was made to get short volatility because I feel like the fear and panic was wavering at the end of the week. Several days of markets being beaten over the head with terrible news and heavy selling tends to exhaust traders and in a world where the central banks of our nations can move markets higher simply by talking, I feel like recent history provides decent precedence from which we can derive the duration and severity of up moves in the VXX. Of course, nothing is perfect and I could be dead wrong about this move being done but in order to make some money, you’ve got to take calculated risks. For that reason, I think getting long XIV here makes lots of sense. There is no doubt that the VXX clearing its previous high from December means we’ve got a situation on our hands. There are plenty of reasons for volatility right now but what I’m betting on is that there will be at least a small reprieve from the panic. Panic, by definition, can only last for so long so a trade into XIV is a bet that the panic is ending and that normalcy will return, at least for a few days. Keep in mind that you don’t need to be right for a long time to make money on this trade; I’m essentially renting XIV until some calm returns to markets again and then it’s back out of the short volatility position. As always, please understand that trading volatility, particularly from the short side, can be quite hazardous. If some shock occurs VXX will spike and XIV will crater, leaving you with massive losses. Please understand how the ETF works and what you’re risking before taking a position. The plan right now is to stay in XIV until one of two things happens; either normalcy returns to markets and XIV moves up very nicely or I’m dead wrong and I get crushed and limp away with my losses. Either way, I think we’ll know this week which one it is and at that point, I’ll reassess which side I want to play on the volatility front. In my first volatility article of 2015 I mentioned I’d keep you abreast of my thoughts and any moves I ended up making and I’m trying my best to do that; please remain engaged in the comments sections because we’re all learning together and sharing thoughts and ideas and I love it. Good luck out there.

Adaptive Asset Allocation: Which Is Better – Quarterly, Monthly, Or Weekly Trading?

Summary The performance of adaptive asset allocation is sensitive to the look back period, as well as to the frequency of market monitoring. The best performance is obtained by monthly monitoring, which significantly outperforms quarterly or weekly monitoring. For the SPY+TLT pair over the 2004-2014 time interval, the highest CAGRs are as follows: 14.70% for monthly monitoring, 12.93% for quarterly monitoring, and 11.74% for weekly monitoring. The best look back periods are 2 to 7 months, 10 to 20 weeks, and 1 quarter. The relative performance of the adaptive allocation strategy is consistent for ETFs and related mutual funds. We obtained similar effects on (SPY, TLT), (VTI, AGG), (FSTMX, FTBFX), and (VTSMX, VBMFX). In a couple of recent articles , we demonstrated that a very simple and well-diversified portfolio may be made up of two instruments – one representing the total stock market, and the other representing the total bond market. These portfolios are quite robust, and achieve decent returns using simple strategies such as rebalancing and momentum-based adaptive allocation. At the suggestion of some readers, we investigate the sensitivity of the adaptive allocation strategy to the frequency of market monitoring and the duration of the look back period. As in our previous articles, we considered the following four portfolios: one built with the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) , the second with iShares and Vanguard ETFs, the third with Vanguard mutual funds, and the fourth with Fidelity mutual funds. ETFs portfolio: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF and SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF. ETFs portfolio: iShares Core US Aggregate Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: AGG ) and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ). Mutual funds portfolio: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (MUTF: VBMFX ) and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (MUTF: VTSMX ). Mutual funds portfolio: Fidelity Total Bond Market Index Fund (MUTF: FTBFX ) and Fidelity Spartan Total Stock Market Index Fund (MUTF: FSTMX ). For purposes of comparison, we simulate these portfolios from December 2003 to December 2014, a total of eleven years. The time period of the study was selected based on the availability of historical data of the investment instruments; AGG was created in September 2003. The data for the study were downloaded from Yahoo Finance, using the Historical Prices menu for the eight tickers: SPY, TLT, AGG, VTI, VBMFX, VTSTX, FTBFX, FSTMX. We use the weekly and monthly price data from September 2003 to December 2014, adjusted for stock splits and dividend payments. The article has two parts. In the first part, we discuss the effect of the frequency of market monitoring. The second part presents the effect of varying the look back period. Part I: Quarterly, Monthly, and Weekly Market Monitoring The first study was done on the SPY+TLT. We compare the results obtained by monitoring the market quarterly, monthly, or weekly in the following manner. Quarterly monitoring is done at market closing on the last trading day of each quarter. Monthly monitoring is done at market closing on the last trading day of each month. Weekly monitoring is done at market closing on the last trading day of each week. The portfolio is at all times invested 100% in either SPY or TLT. All the funds are invested in the instrument with the highest return over the current look back period. The following look back periods were utilized in our simulations: 1 to 4 quarters for quarterly monitoring; 2 to 20 months for monthly monitoring; 5 to 50 weeks for weekly monitoring. The data below show the best investment results over 11 years, from January 2004 to December 2014. The first line is for quarterly monitoring with a 1-quarter look back period; the second is for monthly monitoring with a 3-month look back period; the third for weekly monitoring with a 13-week look back period. It is apparent that monthly monitoring delivers significantly better results than weekly or quarterly monitoring. Table 1. SPY+TLT quarterly, monthly, and weekly monitoring of portfolios January 2004-December 2014 Total Return% CAGR% Max DD% Number of trades Quarterly 281.1 12.93 -19.59 22 Monthly 347.0 14.70 -17.13 29 Weekly 141.1 11,74 -17.37 60 Part II: The Effect of the Look Back Period The effect of the look back period is presented separately for quarterly, monthly, and weekly monitoring. For quarterly monitoring , the look back period was varied from 1 quarter to 4 quarters. The results obtained for the SPY+TLT portfolio are shown in Table 2. It is apparent that a look back of one quarter is significantly better than any other period. Table 2. SPY+TLT quarterly, look back periods from 1 to 4 quarters January 2004-December 2014 Look back [quarters] Total Return% CAGR% Max DD% Number of trades 1 281.1 12.93 -19.59 22 2 77.2 5.20 -29.80 17 3 77.6 5.21 -31.54 14 4 56.4 4.15 -36.75 12 For monthly monitoring , the look back period was varied from 2 months to 20 months. The first two figures show the scatter of the compound annual growth rate (CAGR). A few observations can be made from analyzing these results: The SPY+TLT portfolio is the most sensitive to a change in the look back period. A look back period between 2 and 4 delivers the highest returns. VTI+AGG, as well as the mutual fund portfolios are little sensitive to changes in the look back period. Still, a look back period in the 2-6 month range delivers higher returns. (click to enlarge) Figure 1. CAGR for monthly monitoring with look back periods from 2 to 20 months. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted monthly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 2. CAGR for monthly monitoring with look back periods from 2 to 20 months. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted monthly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 3. Maximum drawdown (DD) for monthly monitoring with look back periods from 2 to 20 months. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted monthly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 4. Maximum drawdown for monthly monitoring with look back periods from 2 to 20 months. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted monthly closing share prices of securities. For weekly monitoring , the look back period was varied from 5 weeks to 50 weeks. The first two figures show the scatter of the compound annual growth rate . A few observations can be made from analyzing these results: The SPY+TLT portfolio is the most sensitive to a change in the look back period. A look back period between 10 and 21 weeks delivers the highest returns. VTI+AGG, as well as the mutual fund portfolios are not very sensitive to changes in the look back period. (click to enlarge) Figure 5. CAGR for weekly monitoring with look back periods from 5 to 50 weeks. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted weekly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 6. CAGR for weekly monitoring with look back periods from 5 to 50 weeks. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted weekly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 7. Maximum drawdown for weekly monitoring with look back periods from 5 to 50 weeks. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted weekly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 8. Maximum drawdown for weekly monitoring with look back periods from 5 to 50 weeks. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted weekly closing share prices of securities. Conclusions The performance of adaptive asset allocation is sensitive to the look back period, as well as to the frequency of market monitoring. The best performance is obtained by monthly monitoring, which significantly outperforms quarterly or weekly monitoring. The optimal look back period varies with the type of assets that make up the portfolio. For the assets considered in this study, the best look back periods are 2 to 7 months, 10 to 20 weeks, and 1 quarter. The author prefers a look back period of 3 months in conjunction with monthly monitoring.

Which Are The Green Alternative Energy Mutual Funds?

Summary There is a wide range of how focused the different green mutual funds are on alternative energy. Some stocks that a mutual fund may hold are easy to classify as alternative energy companies, others are not. Mutual Funds with the greatest alternative energy focus are ALTEX, NALFX and GAAEX. Not all alternative energy mutual funds are created equal. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal , a reporter asked me which alternative energy mutual funds were the most focused on renewables, noting that many mutual funds hold non-energy related companies such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP ) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ). The answer to this question is not as straight forward as one might think. This article sorts out which mutual funds are truly invested in the dynamic and growing green energy sector, and which ones are more peripheral. Greener Than Thou-Revealing How Much a Mutual Fund is Focused on Alternative Energy Despite the desire of many investors to keep their portfolios clean of polluting investments, there is no perfectly pure alternative energy mutual fund. There is, however, a wide range of how focused the different green mutual funds are on alternative energy. Finding out which mutual funds have the highest concentration of alternative energy investments takes a multipronged approach. First, the Roen Financial Report scrutinizes the prospectus of each fund to see if its principles align with alternative energy investment goals. Second, for each company that the mutual fund holds, the annual report and financial filings are thoroughly examined to determine exactly how much of a company’s operations are related to the various green sectors that the Roen Financial Report covers – energy efficiency, environmental * , fuel alternatives, smart grid, solar and wind. Sometimes it is easy to tell whether a mutual fund holds stocks that are in one or more of the alternative energy sectors, but in other cases it is not so obvious. Clearly, pure play companies like First Solar, Inc (NASDAQ: FSLR ), Renewable Energy Group Inc (NASDAQ: REGI ) and SolarCity Corp (NASDAQ: SCTY ) are stocks that alternative energy investors are seeking. There are other companies, though, that have alternative energy products and services as part of their business model, but those operations are not the company’s bread-and-butter. For example, Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI ) is a large industrial conglomerate that has two business units which address alternative energy themes -building efficiency and renewable power solutions. I estimate that alternative energy accounts for perhaps half of JCI’s revenues. Interestingly, shares of JCI are owned by 8 out of 12 alternative energy mutual funds, more than any other single company. Another example of a company with partial alternative energy operations is Valmont Industries (NYSE: VMI ). Valmont manufactures support towers for wind turbines, anemometers, power line transmission, mass transit poles, lighting and related structures. This company cannot be ignored-its contribution is critical to the infrastructure needed to support utility-scale solar, wind and smart grid projects that will continue to be built over the coming decades. However, my analysis attributes an estimated 15% of Valmont’s current earnings are a result of alternative energy projects. Google is another company that blurs into alternative energy, though it is obviously not its main business. Google realizes that it is basically an electricity-based service-no electricity, no Google. Because of this, Google has made a significant commitment to moving toward a more clean and sustainable electric supply. Google has moved on this in no small way, having invested in over $1.5 billion in wind and solar projects . In order to simplify the analysis of how much of a stocks business relates to alternative energy, only the stocks needed to reach at least 50% of a fund’s weighted holdings were included (or at a minimum, the fund’s top 10 holdings). Also, two mutual funds that the Roen Financial Report tracks were left out of the rating system, Allianz RCM Global Water A (MUTF: AWTAX ) and Calvert Green Bond A (MUTF: CGAFX ). AWATX invests in stocks and securities engaged in water-related activities, a sector related to green energy but with more of an environmental focus. Calvert Green Bond is another good choice for green investors, but is a different kind of animal than a stock fund, so it is hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison. Its prospectus states that investments include: …securities of companies that develop or provide products or services that address environmental solutions and/or support efforts to reduce their own environmental footprint; bonds that support environmental projects; structured securities that are collateralized by assets supporting environmental themes; and securities that, in the opinion of the Fund’s Advisor, have no more than a negligible direct environmental impact, which may include securities issued by the U.S. government or its agencies, and U.S. government-sponsored entities. The Greenest Alternative Energy Mutual Funds (click to enlarge) Three funds clearly top the list of having the greatest alternative energy focus: Firsthand Alternative Energy (MUTF: ALTEX ), New Alternatives (MUTF: NALFX ) and Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy (MUTF: GAAEX ). These funds have a high concentration of alternative energy investments, and strongly focused investment principles. Firsthand Alternative Energy Five of Firsthand Alternative Energy’s top 10 weighted holdings are pure play companies such as First Solar , Sun Power (NASDAQ: SPWR ) and Solar City . Firsthand Alternative Energy is very specific in their prospectus, stating that they: …invest at least 80% of the Fund’s assets in alternative energy and alternative energy technology companies, both U.S. and international. Alternative energy currently includes energy generated through solar, hydrogen, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, tidal, biofuel, and biomass. Alternative energy technologies currently include, but are not limited to, technologies that enable energies to be tapped, stored, or transported, such as fuel cells; services or technologies that conserve or enable more efficient utilization of energy; and technologies that help minimize harmful emissions from existing energy sources, such as helping reduce carbon emissions. It is important to note that ALTEX is the smallest of all alternative energy funds that the Roen Financial Report tracks, and we give this fund a low overall investment rank. New Alternatives New Alternatives Fund also has a very good concentration of alternative energy investments. The top six of its holdings are 100% pure play alternative energy companies. Additionally, the top 50% of its weighted portfolio is estimated to be over 75% involved in alternative energy. The investment objective of the fund is not the strongest of all alternative energy funds, but it is very specific: At least 25% of the Fund’s total assets will be invested in equity securities of companies in the alternative energy industry. ‘Alternative Energy’ means the production and conservation of energy in a manner that reduces pollution and harm to the environment, particularly when compared to conventional coal, oil or nuclear energy… The Advisor also considers the perceived prospects for the company and its industry, with concern for economic, political and social conditions at the time. In addition the Advisor considers its expectations for the investment based on, among other things, the company’s technological and management strength. Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy GAAEX has a very strong concentration of alternative energy companies in its portfolio. When looking at the top two-thirds of its holdings, about 90% of those investments are involved in green energy production. Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy also has one of the tightest investment principles guiding the fund: The Alternative Energy Fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in equity securities of alternative energy companies (both U.S. and non-U.S.). Alternative energy companies include, but are not limited to companies that generate power through solar, wind, hydroelectric, tidal wave, geothermal, biomass or biofuels and the various companies that provide the equipment and technologies that enable these sources to be tapped, used, stored or transported, including companies that create, facilitate or improve technologies that conserve or enable more efficient use of energy. Mutual Funds With a Lesser Alternative Energy Focus Funds that the Roen Financial Report rate as having the least alternative energy stocks are Gabelli SRI Green AAA (MUTF: SRIGX ), Portfolio 21 R (MUTF: PORTX ) and Green Century Balanced Fund (MUTF: GCBLX ). Gabelli SRI AAA Prior to last year, Gabelli SRI AAA had more of an alternative energy focus (its previous name was The Gabelli SRI Green Fund), but is now a social screened fund. It does, however, include some alternative energy holdings, such as JCI and VMI. Its investment objectives show that SRIGX has more of an exclusionary screen than a proactive green energy focus: Pursuant to the guidelines, the Fund will not invest in the top 50 defense/weapons contractors or in companies that derive more than 5% of their revenues from the following areas: tobacco, alcohol, gaming, defense/weapons production, and companies involved in the manufacture of abortion related products. Portfolio 21 R PORTX is an environmentally focused fund, which also has a broader social charge. Fewer than expected of its holdings, though, have an alternative energy focus. Only about one-third of its portfolio comprises companies that have a hand in alternative energy sectors. Its prospectus states that: The Advisor believes that the best long-term investments are found in companies with above-average financial characteristics and growth potential that also excel at managing environmental risks and opportunities and societal impact… The Advisor considers a company’s position on various factors such as ecological limits, environmental stewardship, environmental strategies, stance on human rights and equality, societal impact as well as its corporate governance practices. Green Century Balanced Fund Green Century Balanced is a mutual fund that invests in environmentally responsible and sustainable companies, and those not directly in the fossil fuel business. Even though its prospectus is very specific about including companies that have environmental goods and services, very few of the top weighted stocks in its portfolio work in green energy. Instead, many of its top holdings are in technology, health care and financial services. Despite this fact, GCBLX does have a detailed and relevant investment objective: The Fund invests primarily in the stocks and bonds of environmentally responsible and sustainable U.S. companies…whose primary business involves the provision of an environmentally sound good or service, such as appropriate technology for sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, energy efficiency, water treatment and conservation, air pollution control, pollution prevention, recycling technologies, or other effective remedies for existing environmental problems. The Fund also invests in companies whose primary business is not solving environmental problems but which conduct their business in an environmentally responsible manner. Such companies are evaluated on a range of criteria that includes, but is not necessarily limited to, an assessment of each company’s: Environmental performance indicators such as its consumption of natural resources, energy usage, greenhouse gas emissions, toxic emissions, use of toxic chemicals, and solid waste generation; Pollution prevention programs and supply chain environmental policies; Compliance with environmental laws and regulations and its potential environmental liabilities; Environmental management infrastructure and governance procedures; Public reporting on an annual basis of its environmental performance… The Balanced Fund does not intend to invest in companies engaged in the extraction, exploration, production, manufacturing or refining of fossil fuels… Summary My analysis clearly shows that there is a wide range in how committed an alternative energy mutual fund may be in its investments. There is a big difference in the holdings of funds like Firsthand Alternative Energy and New Alternatives compared to Green Century. This information should help guide investors interested in green energy mutual funds to help them know what these funds may or may not be holding. * Though not directly involved in alternative energy, environmental stocks include those in the business of recycling, pollution control, clean water supply and related sectors. While their business is related to the goals of alternative energy by reducing pollution and creating a cleaner planet, it is not as directly related as companies in the energy sector. So for the purposes of this analysis, the factor that environmental companies contribute to a mutual fund’s alternative energy focus was reduced. In other words, a water service company like Xylem Inc (NYSE: XYL ) rates lower than a solar panel manufacturer like Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL ).