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5 Ways To Beat The Market: Part II Revisited

In a series of articles in December 2014, I highlighted five buy-and-hold strategies that have historically outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY). Stock ownership by U.S. households is low and falling even as the barriers to entering the market have been greatly reduced. Investors should understand simple and easy to implement strategies that have been shown to outperform the market over long time intervals. The second of five strategies I will revisit in this series of articles is the “value factor” that has seen stocks with these characteristics outperform the broader market. In a series of articles in December 2014, I demonstrated five buy-and-hold strategies – size, value, low volatility, dividend growth, and equal weighting, that have historically outperformed the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY ). I covered an update to the size factor published on Wednesday. In that series, I demonstrated that while technological barriers and costs to market access have been falling, the number of households that own stocks in non-retirement accounts has been falling as well. Less that 14% of U.S. households directly own stocks, which is less than half of the amount of households that own dogs or cats , and less than half of the proportion of households that own guns . The percentage of households that directly own stocks is even less than the percentage of households that have Netflix or Hulu . The strategies I discussed in this series are low cost ways of getting broadly diversified domestic equity exposure with factor tilts that have generated long-run structural alpha. I want to keep these investor topics in front of the Seeking Alpha readership, so I will re-visit these principles with a discussion of the first half returns of these strategies in a series of five articles over the next five days. Reprisals of these articles will allow me to continually update the long-run returns of these strategies for the readership. Value In the first article in this series, I described the “size factor”, or why small-cap stocks tend to outperform large-cap stocks over long time intervals. The size factor is captured in the Fama-French Three Factor Model that helped earn Eugene Fama the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013. Another of these factors is the “value factor.” The researchers noted that low market-to-book stocks tended to outperform high market-book stocks. Adding the “size factor” and value factor” to the Capital Asset Pricing Model better describes the stock market performance than beta alone. Since we are trying to beat the general market, it makes intuitive sense that alpha would be found in a value factor that was used as a supplement to better describe overall returns. Our second way to beat the market, as proxied by the S&P 500, is then to simply buy value stocks. Below I have tabled the average returns of the S&P 500 Pure Value Index, and show the returns of this index graphed against the S&P 500. For more information on this style-concentrated index, please see the linked microsite . This index is replicated through the Guggenheim S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (NYSEARCA: RPV ) with an expense ratio of 0.35%. The S&P 500 Pure Value Index identifies constituents by measures of high levels of book value, earnings, and sales to the share price. In the five strategies I am detailing to “beat the market”, I will be using trailing 20 years of data, which is the longest time interval that encapsulated all of the relevant indices used in the analysis. (click to enlarge) Source: Bloomberg; Standard and Poor’s Source: Bloomberg; Standard and Poor’s Why has value investing worked historically? Why has the S&P 500 Pure Value Index outperformed over this long sample period? Value investing has been extolled since the days of Benjamin Graham, and put into most visible practice by his pupil, Warren Buffett. Value investing necessitates understanding the difference between a stock that is valued too low by the market, and a stock that is a “value trap” because changes in the business or its industry have created a structural headwind. Value investors then need to have the fortitude to hold their investment when investor sentiment runs counter to their investment themes. On average, individual investors do not have these attributes. In data from “How America Saves”, the fund giant Vanguard has published a wealth of data on defined contribution plans under its management. The table below shows participant contributions in Vanguard’s defined contribution plans over the trailing ten years. Investors should on average be taking a long-term view towards their retirement assets; however, investors owned their lowest percentage of equities in 2009 as markets rebounded from the 2008 downturn, missing a 26.5% total return for the S&P 500 and a tremendous 55.2% return for the S&P 500 Pure Value Index. Source: Vanguard – an updated version of their analysis is linked . In the four years that the S&P 500 produced a negative return in our twenty-year dataset, the value index produced a higher return in the following year. In the Vanguard data, retirement plan participants, who should be taking a long-term view towards their investments, were less likely to own equities after 2008. Value investing is a discipline, and the average investor is not suited to follow this approach, which may be why a low-cost, rules-based exchange-traded fund with a value bent like may be a good solution for some investors. While a value-based strategy has historically outperformed, you can see from the data table below that the value-based index lagged in the first half of 2015. Source: Bloomberg, Standard and Poor’s This 249bp first half underperformance relative to the S&P 500 was the last first half underperformance since 2012. In that year, value stocks rebounded by generating a nearly 18% return in the second half versus a 6% return for the broader market. Value stocks have only produced negative returns over the first six months of four calendar years in the dataset, 1994, 2000, 2008, and 2015. Two of those periods (2000 and 2008) preceded economic recessions and one year 1994 – featured sharply higher interest rates. As I wrote in my 10 Themes Shaping Markets in the Back Half of 2015 , with stock prices near all-time highs and bond prices still elevated from low interest rates despite the first half sell-off, forward returns in asset markets will continue to be subnormal. For long-term investors with a buy-and-hold approach, the value factor has generated alpha over long-time intervals. I will be publishing updated results for three additional proven buy-and-hold strategies that can be replicated through low cost indices over the next three days. Disclaimer My articles may contain statements and projections that are forward-looking in nature, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. While my articles focus on generating long-term risk-adjusted returns, investment decisions necessarily involve the risk of loss of principal. Individual investor circumstances vary significantly, and information gleaned from my articles should be applied to your own unique investment situation, objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Auto Sales On Top Gear: ETFs And Stocks To Ride On

The U.S. automotive industry is on top gear with fat wallets, rising income and increasing consumer confidence adding adequate fuel. This is especially true as auto sales rose 4.4% to 8.52 million units in the first half of 2015, representing the best six months in a decade. And that’s not all, auto sales are on track to hit 17 million for full-year 2015, a record not seen in the last 15 years. Notably, June sales increased 3.9% to 1.48 million units, driven by an 11% rise in light-truck sales. Five of the six major American and Japanese automakers reported strong sales for the last month led by Nissan ( OTCPK:NSANY ), which saw 13% growth. This was followed by the sales increase of 8.2% for Chrysler, 4.2% for Honda (NYSE: HMC ), 4.1% for Toyota (NYSE: TM ) and 1.5% for Ford Motor (NYSE: F ). However, sales at General Motors (NYSE: GM ) dropped 3% in June. Outlook Remains Solid The auto industry is poised to grow given that the economy is gaining traction after a first-quarter slump. The labor market is strengthening, consumer spending is increasing, and the housing market is improving gradually. Further, lower gasoline prices are providing huge boon to auto sales. While a slowdown in China and instability in Europe are the major headwinds, higher demand for pickups and crossovers, a plethora of new models, lower interest on auto loans and the need to replace aging vehicles should continue to drive the industry for the rest of the year. Adding to these strengths would be the summer selling season, which has started off strongly for automakers, and the holiday season at the end of the year which has a tradition of driving sales. Apart from these, about 60% of the industries falling under the auto sector have a strong Zacks Rank in the top 28%, suggesting healthy growth. This is well confirmed by the sector’s strong earnings growth of 8.7% for the second quarter and 22.4% for the third. Overall, auto is expected to be the best sector of 2015 among our 16 Zacks sectors with earnings growth of 24.8%. Given the bullish trends, investors may want to take a closer look at the ETFs and stocks from this corner of the broad market and could ride high with the following products: ETF to Buy Investors should note that there is only a pure play First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto ETF (NASDAQ: CARZ ) in the space that provides global exposure to the 37 auto stocks by tracking the NASDAQ OMX Global Auto Index. It is a large-cap-centric fund and highly concentrated on the top 10 holdings with about 61% of assets, suggesting that company-specific risk is high and that the top 10 firms dominate the returns of the fund. The four prime automakers – Ford, Honda, Toyota, and General Motors – are among the top five holdings. In term of country exposure, Japan takes the top spot at 35.4% while the U.S. and Germany round off the next two spots with 23.8% and 20.1% share, respectively. CARZ is under-appreciated and ignored by investors as indicated by its AUM of only $33.4 million and average daily trading volume of just under 8,000 shares. The product charges 70 bps in fees per year and has gained about 4.4% so far this year. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or ‘Buy’ rating with a High risk outlook. Stocks to Buy We have used our Zacks stock screener to find out the best stocks in the auto space having a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and a Growth Style Score of ‘B’ or better. The Growth Style Score analyzes the growth prospects of a company with a thorough analysis of the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement that evaluate its financial health and the sustainability of its growth trajectory. The results show that stocks with Growth Style Scores of A or B when combined with Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 offer the best upside potential. Meritor Inc. (NYSE: MTOR ) Based in Troy, Michigan, Meritor is a leading manufacturer and supplier of automotive parts across the globe. It supplies drivetrain, mobility, braking and aftermarket solutions for commercial vehicle and industrial markets under the brand names – Meritor, Meritor WABCO, Euclid, Trucktechnic, Mascot, and Meritor AllFit. Meritor has seen rising earnings estimates by 2 cents for the current fiscal year over the past 30 days. The 2015 Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.40 represents a substantial year-over-year growth of 36.9% versus the industry average of 6.82%. Further, the company delivered positive earnings surprises in the last four quarters, with an average beat of 63.56%. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #2 with a Growth Style Score of A, suggesting incredible growth in the months ahead. PACCAR Inc. (NASDAQ: PCAR ) Based in Bellevue, Washington, PACCAR is a global leading manufacturer and designer of premium light, medium, and heavy-duty trucks operating under the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF brand names. The stock has seen positive earnings estimate revisions from $4.51 to $4.53 per share for 2015 over the past 30 days, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.65% versus the industry average of 13.22%. The company delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 4.32% in the last four quarters. The stock has a Zacks Rank #2 with a Growth Style Score of B, meaning that it could be primed for more growth in the months to come. Original Post Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Inside The Crash In China ETFs

China was hot and soaring among all stock markets across the globe for the most of this year thanks to rounds of ultra-easing policies. In fact, China was leading the global markets, attaining the best performing country spot for the first half. But the incredible run was washed away over the past few weeks as concerns brew over the longevity of the stimulus-driven rally and the real health of the economy. Further, worries over lofty valuations raised a panic alarm among investors after a one-year stupendous rally. What Let the Dragon Out Several factors led to horrendous trading in China. First, more than 40% of the mainland China companies halted trading in their shares, locking in up $2.6 trillion worth of shares. This is touted to be the largest wave of trading halts in the history of the Chinese equity market. Additionally, the world’s second largest economy is faltering with slower growth in six years, credit crunch, a property market slump, weak domestic demand, lower industrial production, and lower factory output. Corporate profits are also lower than a year ago. Further, a slew of recent measures including fresh interest-rate cuts, stock purchases by state-directed funds, looser margin-financing rules, central bank pledge of liquidity support, and suspension of new listings are not helping in any way to boost investors’ confidence. Lastly, deepening Greece crisis and Grexit fears shook investors across the globe, a creating risk-off trading environment. The combination of factors led to a dragonish sell-off in the Chinese market. The Shanghai Composite Index plunged over 8% in today’s session, extending its steepest three-week decline since 1992. With this, the index tumbled 32% since its peak in June 12 and wiped out more than $3.5 trillion in market capitalization. On the other hand, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged as much as 8.6% on the day, making the biggest drop since November 2008. ETF Impact Quite expectedly, the terrible trading has been felt in the Chinese ETF world too. Funds in this space also saw big losses over the past one month, putting an end to their winning streaks, and landing them in the bear territory. China ETFs Performance Market Vectors China SME-ChiNext ETF (NYSEARCA: CNXT ) -43.54% db X-trackers Harvest CSI 500 China-A Shares Small Cap Fund (NYSEARCA: ASHS ) -43.49% iShares MSCI China Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: ECNS ) -29.14% Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: HAO ) -25.24% First Trust China AlphaDEX Fund (NYSEARCA: FCA ) -17.27% SPDR S&P China ETF (NYSEARCA: GXC ) -16.38% iShares FTSE China ETF (NASDAQ: FCHI ) -16.14% iShares MSCI China Index Fund (NYSEARCA: MCHI ) -15.57% iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: FXI ) -15.08% PowerShares Golden Dragon China Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PGJ ) -13.92% From the above table, it should be noted that steep declines were widespread among the Chinese ETFs. Interestingly, A-shares ETFs have been the worst performers of the Chinese rout, followed by small caps. Large-cap focused funds and the broad market funds too saw double-digit declines over the past four weeks. Further, ETFs targeting specific sectors like Global X China Industrials ETF (NYSEARCA: CHII ), Global X China Materials ETF (NYSEARCA: CHIM ), Guggenheim China Technology ETF (NYSEARCA: CQQQ ), Global X China Financials ETF (NYSEARCA: CHIX ) and Global X China Consumer ETF (NYSEARCA: CHIQ ) also bore the brunt, declining 27.46%, 25.26%, 21.25%, 16.32% and 13.71% respectively. What Lies Ahead? Given the steep decline in all the corners of Chinese space and huge numbers of trading halts, fears are largely building up in the space. Morgan Stanley ‘s head analyst of emerging markets and global macro economy views this as the biggest bubble in the last 20-30 years, while others are anticipating that China’s market turmoil might be a bigger issue than the Greece crisis. It is not only destabilizing the economy but could also have ripple effects in the global markets if it continues for long. However, the stepped-up measures taken by the government lately will soon start to pay off providing a boost to the stocks. In addition, easy cheap money flows in contrast to tightening policy in the U.S. will allow Chinese ETFs to resume their impressive ascent. Further, continued selling has made the Chinese stocks inexpensive at current levels. This is especially true given the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index have a P/E ratio of 18.91 and 9.7, respectively, compared to 21.3 for the S&P 500 index. So investors should wait until the Chinese market bottoms out and then cash in on the opportunity of the beaten down prices with any of the above-mentioned ETFs having a favorable Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Original Post