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The Natural Gas Market Remains Soft – UNG Is Slightly Down

The price of UNG remains low and has declined by 2% since the beginning of the month. The weather is expected to heat up, but only in parts of the U.S. Will this be enough to drive up the demand for natural gas in the power sector? The natural gas market has started to cool down in the past couple of weeks, as the price of the United States Natural Gas ETF (NYSEARCA: UNG ) has declined by 2% since the beginning of the month. However, it’s still early to consider a downward trend in the price of UNG. And the market is still expected to remain soft in the near term, with higher-than-normal injections to storage, normal temperatures, robust production and low demand for natural gas. Unless the weather heats up, the price of UNG isn’t going anywhere. In the futures markets, contango has gone up mostly for the month of November – this is when the demand for natural gas is likely to pick up on account of higher consumption in the residential/commercial sectors (the start of winter). In November, the extraction season is expected to commence. (click to enlarge) (Data Source: EIA) But for the near-term contracts – September and October – contango hasn’t picked up by much, and as such, it’s not likely to have much of an impact on the roll decay of UNG. In the recent EIA weekly update , underground storage rose by 91 Bcf – a bit higher than market expectations, which stood at 86 Bcf. This was also higher than the 5-year average of 75 Bcf. Furthermore, in the coming weeks, analysts still project that the storage will rise at a faster pace than the 5-year average. Despite the higher pace in injections, the price of UNG has rallied in the past few days. Even the modest decline in natural gas consumption – down by 2% week on week, mainly due to lower consumption in the power sector – hasn’t driven down the price of UNG. The weather, which was expected to heat up, didn’t do so. The average temperatures were close to normal levels. Looking forward, the weather forecasts show colder-than-normal temperatures in parts of the west coast and the northeast. And warmer-than-normal weather throughout the south. Nonetheless, the cooling degree days (CDD) are expected to be higher: 19 degrees higher than normal and 27 degrees above 2014 levels. So we have a mixed signal about where the demand for natural gas in the power sector is heading this week. If the weather does turn out to be warmer than normal. The supply continues to slowly pick up, as production is still 5.4% higher than last year. Also, the number of rigs hasn’t changed much in the past few weeks: According to Baker Hughes , as of last week, the number of gas rigs slipped by 2 to 217. So far, this summer hasn’t been too hot. The power sector, which plays a more important role in this time of the year, relative to other sectors, has kept the price of UNG at its current low level. Unless the weather starts to heat up again, the injections will continue to be higher than normal and UNG will remain low. For more please see: ” On the Contango in the Natural Gas Market “. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Will China Pull Back Up SLV?

China’s possible economic slowdown may have contributed to the recent fall in the price of SLV. China’s demand for silver is expected to grow this year in part due to an increase in installation of solar panels. The physical demand for silver is less likely to impact the price of SLV. While all eyes are set towards the Greek debt crisis, the price of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SLV ) has come down in the past few weeks. Some attributed the fall in prices , in part, to fears of an economic slowdown in China. Nonetheless, China’s demand for silver is still expected to rise this year. But will China pull up the price of SLV? As I have pointed out in the past, the physical demand for silver, while plays an important role in moving the price of silver, is still only secondary to the changes in the demand for silver for investment purposes. The same goes for China’s growing demand for silver. One of the main growing industries in China where the demand for silver has increased is in the photovoltaic business, i.e. the installation of solar panels. So far this year, China was able to ramp up its installation capacity – it reached 5.04 GW in the first quarter. This year, China set a high target of installing a total of 17.8 GW of solar PV. If so, this will account for nearly a third of the global solar PV installations for 2015. How much silver is needed to reach this 17.8 GW goal? According to PV-Tech , it takes nearly 80 tons of silver, or 2.8 million ounces of silver, to generate one gigawatt of electricity from solar. Considering China aims to install 17.8 GW, this means it will need around 50 million ounces of silver. On a global scale, with an estimate of 55 GW, the world’s demand for silver in the PV solar industry will be around 154 million ounces – nearly two and a half times the amount of silver consumed in this industry back in 2014; it’s also 14% of total physical demand of silver. Last year , however, this industry accounted for only 5.6% of the physical demand of silver. Moreover, the demand for silver in this industry has gone down since its peak year – 2011. Color me dubious, but I’m a bit skeptic that China will be able to reach such a high target, let alone need to ramp up its solar industry capacity so rapidly especially now that oil prices have gone down. Keep in mind, in previous years, the role of PV solar was small from the total global demand for silver. And China’s demand for silver, while important, hasn’t driven up the price of SLV in the past few years. But even if you do believe China’s demand for silver will rise and its economy isn’t slowing down, it’s still a stretch to consider this turn of events will increase the price of SLV. Thus, it’s less likely that China, even if it does increase its demand for silver, will drive up SLV. I think the drama in Greece, which has raised the uncertainty in the financial markets mainly in forex, and the potential change in the Federal Reverse’s policy in the coming months are likely to lead the way in moving the price of SLV. When it comes to the Fed, even though Yellen keeps promising it will raise rates this year, the market isn’t convinced: According to the bond market, the implied probabilities of a rate hike in September have fallen to only 14% and 50% in December. The minutes of the FOMC meeting revealed that some members still think it could be too soon to raise rates: “Most participants judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved; a number of them cautioned against a premature decision.” Other members thought the conditions for a rate hike is plausible in the very near term: “Some participants viewed the economic conditions for increasing the target range for the federal funds rate as having been met or were confident that they would be met shortly. They identified several possible risks associated with delaying the start of policy firming. One such risk was the possibility that the Committee might need to tighten more rapidly than financial markets currently anticipate – an outcome that could be associated with a significant rise in longer-term interest rates or heightened financial market volatility.” The Greek saga could also push the rate hike to 2016 if Greece were to exit the EU; a Grexit could further raise the uncertainty in the financial markets and provide an excuse for the doves in the Federal Reserve to err on the side of caution by keeping rates low until the beginning of 2016 and see how the Greek exit plays out. China is expected to increase its demand for silver and the solar industry will likely to take a bigger role in the physical demand for silver. It’s still possible that China’s demand will grow slower mainly if its economy slows down. But as for the price of SLV, it seems less likely that even a higher growth path for China’s silver consumption will drive up, for extended periods, the price of this precious metal. (For more please see: ” Is SLV about to change course? “). Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

How Much Growth Exposure Is In Your Value Index? Perhaps More Than You Think

Summary In order to benefit from diversification within an investment portfolio, we believe investors need to combine assets that are less-than-perfectly correlated. Indexes representing growth and value investment styles often have the same holdings, which diminishes the potential diversification and risk reduction benefit within a portfolio. Investors can realize increased diversification benefits through exposure to pure style-based indexes that have no constituent overlap and weight constituents by style strength instead of market capitalization. To ensure proper style diversification, it’s critical to check your correlations By John G. Feyerer, Vice President, Director of Equity ETF Product Strategy, Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC Diversification. As the old saying goes, it’s the only free lunch in finance. Construction of investment portfolios involves mixing low or uncorrelated asset classes with varying risk/return profiles in order to attain the desired balance of risk and return potential. Correlation is a statistical measure of how securities move in relation to each other. For investors to benefit from diversification, they must combine assets that are less than perfectly correlated. The lower the correlation, the greater the diversification benefit. (While low correlations are good, negative correlations are even better.) Of course, diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss. Style investing as a means of diversification Traditional style investing, commonly used in the asset allocation process, is one means of diversifying a portfolio. A simple example of traditional style investing involves employing both growth and value investment styles across a full spectrum of company sizes – large-, mid- and small-cap. This approach is designed to improve performance, while reducing portfolio risk. Style allocations can also be used to tilt an investment portfolio based on an investor’s market outlook. Historically, investor implementation strategies have focused on finding active managers who could deliver “alpha,” or risk-adjusted performance, to fill each style box allocation. In recent years, passive strategies have also been widely adopted, as evidenced by $160 billion in net flows into style-based index mutual funds and $54 billion in net flows into style-based index exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past three years. During this time, style-based ETFs have grown to represent approximately 10% of the $2 trillion in U.S. ETF assets under management. 1 Constituent overlap can increase portfolio risk Given the desired outcome of improving performance while reducing portfolio risk, we believe it is important for ETF investors to “look under the hood” of the more popular style indices to understand the index construction methodology. Russell and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) provide some of the most widely used style indices, and both have at least 30% constituent overlap between growth and value allocations, as shown in the graphic below. Source: Bloomberg, L.P., May 31, 2015 What do we mean by this? An examination of index holdings illustrates that a number of companies have their weight apportioned between both the growth and value indexes based upon their strength of style. Index providers typically structure their style indexes in this way to provide exhaustive coverage (so that all parent index stocks are included in these benchmark indexes) and cost-efficient* exposure to the broad style market. But the overlap of constituent companies within these indexes typically results in higher correlations, which can help reduce diversification and increase portfolio risk. Given that nearly one-third of both the S&P and Russell style indexes contain the same stocks, investors should evaluate the degree to which they can benefit from diversification through a reduction in correlation. Pure style investing eliminates the issue of constituent overlap Recently, Russell introduced a suite of pure style indexes designed to include only stocks with pure growth and pure value characteristics. Unlike traditional style indexes, the Russell pure style methodology eliminates overlap and weights constituents based upon relative style attractiveness. This approach not only eliminates the issue of constituent overlap, but also focuses the exposure on companies that exhibit the greatest style strength. The table below illustrates these differences. Notice that the Russell growth style and the Russell value style both include four of the same large companies, while the Russell pure growth style and the Russell pure value style have no constituent overlap. Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of May 27, 2015 Now let’s consider the impact on correlations. In the table below, note how highly correlated Russell’s traditional value and growth style indexes are across the various indices: 0.79, 0.73 and 0.84 (a level of 1.00 reflects perfect correlation). This isn’t entirely surprising when you consider that a portion of each index consists of the exact same companies. Now observe the lower correlations between the various Russell pure value indexes: 0.58, 0.44 and 0.64. Russell’s pure style indexes show an average reduction in correlation of 30% when compared to Russell’s traditional value and growth indexes – driven by the fact that there isn’t any constituent overlap between the pure style indexes, as well as the fact that constituents are weighted based on style strength, rather than on market capitalization. Source: Russell Investments, as of July 1998-March 2015 In order to benefit from the “free lunch” that is afforded by diversification, we believe investors need to pay close attention to the correlations between the allocations within their portfolio. Some of the most commonly used style indices have significant constituent overlap – resulting in higher correlations, and thus hampering the ability of investors to reduce portfolio risk. By employing a strict construction discipline, Russell pure style indexes isolate companies that exhibit stronger style characteristics – resulting in a sharper, more focused and stylistically pure index. Learn more about Invesco PowerShares’ suite of ETFs based upon Russell’s pure style methodology. Source Morningstar, March 31, 2015 * Since ordinary brokerage commissions apply for each buy and sell transaction, frequent trading activity may increase the cost of ETFs. Important information The Russell Top 200 Pure Growth Portfolio holds a 0.2% position in Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY ), a 0.76% position in The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS ), a 2.18% position in Ecolab (NYSE: ECL ) and a 2.01% position in Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX ) as of July 8, 2015. The Russell Top 200 Pure Value Portfolio holds a 2.81% position in ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP ) and a 2.97% position in PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC ) as of July 8, 2015. The Russell Top 200® Index , a trademark/service mark of the Frank Russell® Co., is an unmanaged index comprising the largest 200 securities by U.S. market cap. The Russell Midcap® Index , a trademark/service mark of the Frank Russell Co., is an unmanaged index considered representative of mid-cap stocks. The Russell 2000® Index , a trademark/service mark of the Frank Russell Co., is an unmanaged index considered representative of small-cap stocks. Russell is a trademark of the Frank Russell Co. There are risks involved with investing in ETFs, including possible loss of money. Index-based ETFs are not actively managed. Actively managed ETFs do not necessarily seek to replicate the performance of a specified index. Both index-based and actively managed ETFs are subject to risks similar to stocks, including those related to short selling and margin maintenance. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply. The Fund’s return may not match the return of the Index. The Funds are subject to certain other risks. Please see the current prospectus for more information regarding the risk associated with an investment in the Funds. Growth stocks tend to be more sensitive to changes in their earnings and can be more volatile. A value style of investing is subject to the risk that the valuations never improve or that the returns will trail other styles of investing or the overall stock markets. Stocks of small and mid-sized companies tend to be more vulnerable to adverse developments, may be more volatile, and may be illiquid or restricted as to resale. Investing in securities of large-cap companies may involve less risk than is customarily associated with investing in stocks of smaller companies. Investments focused in a particular industry or sector are subject to greater risk, and are more greatly impacted by market volatility, than more diversified investments. The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation of the suitability of any investment strategy for a particular investor. Invesco does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state tax laws are complex and constantly changing. Investors should always consult their own legal or tax professional for information concerning their individual situation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals. NOT FDIC INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE NO BANK GUARANTEE All data provided by Invesco unless otherwise noted. Invesco Distributors, Inc. is the U.S. distributor for Invesco Ltd.’s retail products and collective trust funds. Invesco Advisers, Inc. and other affiliated investment advisers mentioned provide investment advisory services and do not sell securities. Invesco Unit Investment Trusts are distributed by the sponsor, Invesco Capital Markets, Inc., and broker-dealers including Invesco Distributors, Inc. PowerShares® is a registered trademark of Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC (Invesco PowerShares). Each entity is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Invesco Ltd. ©2015 Invesco Ltd. All rights reserved. How much growth exposure is in your value index? Perhaps more than you think by Invesco Blog