Tag Archives: portugal

ETF Stats For August 2015 – Assets Fall As Trading Jumps

ETF industry assets dropped 5.4% in August as trading surged 33.5%. Product count increased by only four because the 24 launches were nearly overshadowed by the 20 ETF deaths. The month closed with 1,768 active listings, consisting of 1,574 ETFs and 194 ETNs. The actively managed fund count held steady at 133, although their assets moved 2.0% higher. Assets shrunk by $115 billion for the month as negative market action swamped the less-than $3 billion of cash inflows. The setback puts overall assets at just a little over the $2 trillion mark and the year-to-date asset gains at just 1.0%. Actively managed funds fared better than passive funds in August as assets increased to $21.2 billion, which represents a 2.0% gain for the month and a healthy 23.1% year-to-date jump. The quantity of ETFs with more than $10 billion in assets slipped from 54 to 52, and these 2.9% of the listings control 56% of the assets. Funds with more than $1 billion in assets declined by 4 to 259 and they hold an 84.7% market share. The average ETF has $1.18 billion in assets, but average does not imply typical. Only 228 products are above average when it comes to assets, while the other 1,540 (87%) are below average. The median asset size across all products is about $75 million. August is often a sleepy month for trading activity as summer vacations tend to put a damper on market volume. This August was far from typical, as ETF trading activity surged to its second-highest monthly level in more than four years. The total dollar volume of ETFs and ETNs was $2.12 trillion for the month. This was a 33.5% jump from July and a whopping 178% surge from August 2014. As usual, the vast majority of the trading was concentrated in relatively few ETFs. 14 products averaged more than $1 billion per day in trading activity, and this elite group captured a 61.1% market share. At the other extreme, there were 1,419 products that failed to muster $10 million in average daily trading. Even though they represent 80% of the products on the market, they accounted for only 2% of the trading action. Realizing how tough it is to succeed in the ETF space, industry leader BlackRock (NYSE: BLK ) closed and liquidated 18 iShares ETFs. 2 of the closing funds had more than $30 million in assets, which is above the $25 million limit for ETF Deathwatch inclusion. So far this year, 11 products with more than $25 million in assets have closed. It may be time to raise the threshold. Currency hedging remains the dominant theme for new launches. 12 of the 24 new ETFs released in August boast a currency-hedged strategy. Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB ) had some early success with this approach, and it now appears to be the firm’s primary thrust for its X-trackers product line. 10 new Deutsche X-trackers ETFs employing currency hedging arrived in August. Additionally, Deutsche closed 9 of its unhedged funds this year. Of the 32 X-trackers listed for trading in the US, 24 use currency hedging, 3 use interest rate hedging, and only 5 are unhedged. August 2015 Month End ETFs ETNs Total Currently Listed U.S. 1,574 194 1,768 Listed as of 12/31/2014 1,451 211 1,662 New Introductions for Month 24 0 24 Delistings/Closures for Month 20 0 20 Net Change for Month +4 0 +4 New Introductions 6 Months 145 4 149 New Introductions YTD 179 5 184 Delistings/Closures YTD 56 22 78 Net Change YTD +123 -17 +106 Assets Under Mgmt ($ billion) $1,993 $25.3 $2,019 % Change in Assets for Month -5.5% +1.5% -5.4% % Change in Assets YTD +1.1% -6.0% +1.0% Qty AUM > $10 Billion 52 0 52 Qty AUM > $1 Billion 252 7 259 Qty AUM > $100 Million 765 35 800 % with AUM > $100 Million 48.6% 18.0% 45.3% Monthly $ Volume ($ billion) $2,040 $80.8 $2,120 % Change in Monthly $ Volume +33.7% +31.0% +33.5% Avg Daily $ Volume > $1 Billion 12 2 14 Avg Daily $ Volume > $100 Million 102 7 109 Avg Daily $ Volume > $10 Million 337 12 349 Actively Managed ETF Count (w/ change) 133 +0 mth +8 ytd Actively Managed AUM ($ billion) $21.2 +2.0% mth +23.1% ytd Data sources: Daily prices and volume of individual ETPs from Norgate Premium Data. Fund counts and all other information compiled by Invest With An Edge. New products launched in August (sorted by launch date): Virtus Newfleet Multi-Sector Unconstrained Bond ETF (NFLT), launched 8/11/2015, is an actively managed ETF with a main objective of providing a high level of current income and a secondary objective of capital appreciation. The ETF will rotate among various global bond market sectors at times the managers believe they will outperform. Yield information is not currently provided. The expense ratio will be capped at 0.80% until 8/10/16 ( NFLT overview ). Deutsche X-trackers MSCI All World ex US High Dividend Yield Hedged Equity ETF (HDAW), launched 8/12/2015, is designed to invest in non-US companies with higher-than-average dividend yields while mitigating exposure to fluctuations between the value of the component currencies and the US dollar. Equities can be selected from both developed and emerging markets, with the largest geographic exposure currently being the UK at about 33%. Current yield is 4.4%. HDAW has an expense ratio of 0.45% ( HDAW overview ). Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EAFE High Dividend Yield Hedged Equity ETF (HDEF), launched 8/12/2015, invests in non-US companies with higher-than-average dividend yields while offsetting value changes between the component currencies and the US dollar using forward currency contracts. Equities are selected from among the MSCI EAFE universe, with the largest geographic exposure currently being the UK at about 40%. Current yield is 4.4%. The ETF sports an expense ratio of 0.45% ( HDEF overview ). Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Emerging Markets High Dividend Yield Hedged Equity ETF (HDEE), launched 8/12/2015, is designed to invest in emerging market companies with higher-than-average dividend yields while mitigating exposure to fluctuations between the value of the component currencies and the US dollar. China leads the way with about a 31% country allocation, and the current yield is 4.1%. The ETF’s expense ratio is 0.65% ( HDEE overview ). Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Eurozone High Dividend Yield Hedged Equity ETF (HDEZ), launched 8/12/2015, invests in European companies with higher-than-average dividend yields while offsetting value changes between the euro and the US dollar using forward currency contracts. The largest geographic exposure is Germany at about 24%, with France coming in next at about 19%. Current yield is 4.2%. Investors will pay 0.45% annually to own this ETF ( HDEZ overview ). Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA: EWRE ), launched 8/13/2015, is designed to provide an investment option composed of the companies in the S&P 500 that are included in the real estate sector, excluding mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs). The holdings are equally weighted and will be rebalanced quarterly. EWRE has an expense ratio of 0.40% ( EWRE overview ). Deutsche X-trackers Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: JPNH ), launched 8/19/2015, will hold 400 Japanese securities that are selected based on qualitative and quantitative measures such as return on equity (ROE), cumulative operating profit, and market capitalization. The ETF then hedges its currency risk between the US dollar and Japanese yen with forward contracts. The expense ratio is capped at 0.45% until 10/1/16 ( JPNH overview ). Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Australia Hedged Equity ETF (DBAU), launched 8/19/2015, invests in large- and mid-capitalization Australian stocks while utilizing currency forwards to minimize fluctuations between the Australian and US dollars. The ETF currently holds 70 securities, with over 50% representing the Financials sector. The ETF sports an expense ratio of 0.45% ( DBAU overview ). Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EAFE Small Cap Hedged Equity ETF (DBES), launched 8/19/2015, is designed to give investors access to small-cap, developed market equities outside of the US while mitigating exposure to currency fluctuations. There are over 2,000 holdings representing 21 countries. The ETF’s expense ratio is 0.45% ( DBES overview ). Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Italy Hedged Equity ETF (DBIT), launched 8/19/2015, is currently invested in 26 large- and mid-capitalization Italian equities. DBIT uses forward contracts to minimizing the value fluctuations between the US dollar and the euro. Holdings of Intesa Sanpaolo and Eni combine to be about 25% of the fund. Investors will pay 0.45% annually to own this ETF ( DBIT overview ). Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Southern Europe Hedged Equity ETF (DBSE), launched 8/19/2015, selects large- and mid-capitalization equities in Spain, Italy, and Portugal while minimizing the value fluctuations between the US dollar and the euro. The underlying MSCI Index excludes Greece, which lies further south than the three constituent countries. Sector allocation is heavy in Financials at nearly 42%, while 56% of the 55 holdings are in Spain. DBSE has an expense ratio of 0.45% ( DBSE overview ). Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Spain Hedged Equity ETF (DBSP), launched 8/19/2015, is currently invested in 25 large- and mid-capitalization Spanish equities. DBSP utilizes forward contracts to minimize the fluctuations between the value of the US dollar and euro. Financials leads the sector allocation at nearly 42%, with Banco Santander the top holding at 17.2%. The ETF sports an expense ratio of 0.45% ( DBSP overview ). Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bear 3x Shares (CLAW), launched 8/19/2015, is designed to return a leveraged daily return of -300% (inverse) of the Dow Jones US Select Home Construction Index. The Index includes a variety of companies that provide home building services and products, such as builders, home improvement retailers, and suppliers of building materials and fixtures. The expense ratio will be capped at 0.95% until 9/1/17 ( CLAW overview ). Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3x Shares (NAIL), launched 8/19/2015, has a goal of providing a leveraged daily return of 300% of the Dow Jones US Select Home Construction. The Index includes a variety of companies that provide home building services and products, such as suppliers of building materials and furnishings, builders, and home improvement retailers. The expense ratio will be capped at 0.95% until 9/1/17 ( NAIL overview ). Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bear 3x Shares (WDRW), launched 8/19/2015, seeks to provide a daily return of -300% (inverse) of an index reflecting the 50 largest regional banks in the US. The banks are selected based on their free-float market capitalization and then equally weighted. The expense ratio will be capped at 0.95% until 9/1/17 ( WDRW overview ). Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3x Shares (DPST), launched 8/19/2015, attempts to provide a 300% daily return of the Solactive US Regional Banks Total Return Index. The Index selects the 50 largest regional banks in the US based on free-float market capitalization and then equally weights the holdings. The expense ratio will be capped at 0.95% until 9/1/17 ( DPST overview ). Market Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (Pending: CRAK ), launched 8/19/2015, invests in the largest and most liquid companies in the global oil refining segment. It currently holds 25 companies that produce gasoline, jet fuel, fuel oil, naphtha, and other petrochemicals. The US accounts for about half of the geographic allocation, with the next largest being Japan at about 10.9%. The manager will cap expenses at 0.59% until 5/1/17 ( CRAK overview ). O’Shares FTSE Asia Pacific Quality Dividend ETF (OASI), launched 8/19/2015, invests in large- and mid-capitalization companies in Asia Pacific that pay dividends. Holdings are selected based on several factors such as liquidity, high quality, low volatility, and dividend yield. The largest country represented is Japan at 43.9%, and the sector allocation is relatively even with six over 10%. OASI has a 0.58% expense ratio ( OASI overview ). O’Shares FTSE Europe Quality Dividend ETF (OEUR), launched 8/19/2015, invests in large- and mid-capitalization, dividend-paying European equities. Holdings are selected based on several factors such as liquidity, high quality, low volatility, and dividend yield. The UK has the largest country allocation at 43.1%. Health Care and Consumer Goods lead the sectors at about 19% each. Investors will pay 0.58% annually to own this ETF ( OEUR overview ). Compass EMP International 500 Volatility Weighted Index ETF (NASDAQ: CIL ), launched 8/20/2015, invests in up to 500 large-cap equities in developed stock markets, excluding the US. The ETF’s selection process starts with screening for companies with net positive earnings for four consecutive quarters. It then selects the largest 500 and weights them based on their daily standard deviation (volatility). Countries with more than a 10% allocation include Japan at 20.5% and the UK at 12.7%. The expense ratio is capped at 0.45% until 6/30/17 ( CIL overview ). Compass EMP International High Dividend 100 Volatility Weighted Index ETF (NASDAQ: CID ), launched 8/20/2015, selects the 100 highest dividend-paying equities from the CEMP International 500 Volatility Weighted Index and weights them based on their daily standard deviation (volatility). The UK tops the country allocation with 19.5%. Australia is close behind at 17.5%. The expense ratio is capped at 0.45% until 6/30/17 ( CID overview ). O’Shares FTSE Asia Pacific Quality Dividend Hedged ETF (OAPH), launched 8/25/2015, is a fund-of-funds seeking to invest in Asia Pacific large- and mid-capitalization equities that exhibit relatively low volatility and high dividend yields while reducing the impact of changes between the value of the underlying currencies and the US dollar. The ETF holds O’Shares FTSE Asia Pacific Quality Dividend ETF (OASI) and then hedges against the currency risk. The ETF’s expense ratio is 0.68% ( OAPH overview ). O’Shares FTSE Europe Quality Dividend Hedged ETF (OEUH), launched 8/25/2015, is a fund-of-funds investing in large- and mid-capitalization equities across the European region that exhibit relatively low volatility and high dividend yields while minimizing the impact value fluctuations between the underlying currencies and US dollar. The ETF holds O’Shares FTSE Europe Quality Dividend ETF (OEUR) and then hedges against the currency risk. It sports a 0.68% expense ratio ( OEUH overview ). Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: VTEB ), launched 8/25/2015, offers diversified exposure to the investment-grade US municipal bond market. Its objective is to provide moderate current income in a long-duration portfolio with high credit quality. Yield information is not yet provided. VTEB has an expense ratio of 0.12% ( VTEB overview ). Product closures/delistings in August: AdvisorShares Accuvest Global Long Short (NYSEARCA: AGLS ) ETFS Physical Asian Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: AGOL ) iShares FTSE China (NASDAQ: FCHI ) iShares MSCI All Country Asia Info Technology (NASDAQ: AAIT ) iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan Small-Cap (NASDAQ: AXJS ) iShares MSCI Australia Small-Cap (BATS: EWAS ) iShares MSCI Canada Small-Cap (BATS: EWCS ) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Growth (NASDAQ: EGRW ) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Value (NASDAQ: EVAL ) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Eastern Europe (NYSEARCA: ESR ) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets EMEA (NASDAQ: EEME ) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Cons Discretionary (NASDAQ: EMDI ) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Energy Sector (NASDAQ: EMEY ) iShares MSCI Hong Kong Small-Cap (NYSEARCA: EWHS ) iShares MSCI Singapore Small-Cap (NYSEARCA: EWSS ) iShares Asia Developed Real Estate (NASDAQ: IFAS ) iShares North America Real Estate (NASDAQ: IFNA ) iShares Financials Bond (NYSEARCA: MONY ) iShares Industrials Bond (NYSEARCA: ENGN ) iShares Utilities Bond (NYSEARCA: AMPS ) Product changes in August: Goldman Sachs discontinued issuing shares of GS Connect S&P GSCI Enhanced Commodity Total Return Strategy Index ETN (NYSEARCA: GSC ) on June 9. It is now a broken product without a functioning share creation and redemption process. Buyers, sellers, and holders beware. The Forensic Accounting ETF (NYSEARCA: FLAG ) became the WeatherStorm Forensic Accounting Long-Short ETF ( FLAG ) effective August 7 . The underlying index changed from the long-only Del Vecchio Earnings Quality Index to the WeatherStorm Forensic Accounting Long-Short Index. The new index is constructed with a 130% long and 30% short (130/30) equity exposure. Fidelity Investments made changes to its commission-free ETF lineup by adding iShares MSCI All Country World Minimum Volatility (NYSEARCA: ACWV ) and iShares Short Treasury Bond (NYSEARCA: SHV ) effective August 24. It also removed iShares MSCI Emerging Markets EMEA ETF ( EEME ) as of August 24 and will remove iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA: IYR ) effective October 31. WisdomTree renamed thirteen of its ETFs effective August 31. Changes included “Dividend Growth” to “”Quality Dividend Growth”, “DEFA” to “International”, and “Equity Income” to “High Dividend”. Announced Product Changes for Coming Months: The iShares iBonds Sep 2015 AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IBMD ) is scheduled to mature and will cease trading after the market closes on September 1. The iShares MSCI USA ETF (NYSEARCA: EUSA ), a capitalization-weighted fund, will undergo an extreme makeover on September 1, becoming the iShares MSCI USA Equal Weighted ETF ( EUSA ). The iShares Japan large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: ITF ), based on the S&P/TOPIX 150 Index, will undergo an extreme makeover on September 4, becoming the iShares JPX-Nikkei 400 ETF ( ITF ). Deutsche X-trackers Regulated Utilities (NYSEARCA: UTLT ) and Deutsche X-trackers Solactive Investment Grade Subordinated Debt (NYSEARCA: SUBD ) will close with September 9 being their last day of trading. State Street will forward split ten of its SPDR industry ETFs effective September 10. VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETN (NYSEARCA: UWTI ) will have a 1-for-10 reverse split and VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN (NYSEARCA: UGAZ ) will have a 1-for-5 reverse split effective September 10 . ProShares UltraShort Telecommunications (NYSEARCA: TLL ) will close with September 14 being its last day of trading. Van Eck Global will close its four international quality ETFs with September 18 being the last day of trading for QEM, QDEM, QXUS, and QDXU. Shareholders that do not sell prior to the delisting will have to wait nearly six weeks (to October 28) to get their money . PIMCO will close three ETFs with September 23 being the last day of trading. Affected funds are PIMCO 3-7 Year U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FIVZ ), PIMCO 7-15 Year U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSEARCA: TENZ ), and the actively managed PIMCO Foreign Currency Strategy Active (NYSEARCA: FORX ). Direxion will perform reverse splits on six of its leveraged ETFs effective October 1 (originally scheduled for September 10). Van Eck Global plans to acquire Yorkville MLP ETFs ( press release ) and hopes to close the transaction in the fourth quarter. Previous monthly ETF statistics reports are available here . Disclosure covering writer: No positions in any of the securities mentioned. No positions in any of the companies or ETF sponsors mentioned. No income, revenue, or other compensation (either directly or indirectly) received from, or on behalf of, any of the companies or ETF sponsors mentioned.

5 Leveraged Europe ETFs To Watch On Greece Deal

After the month-long Greek drama, the European stock market seems to be settling down. This is especially true as the Euro zone leaders agreed to negotiate on a bailout loan for Greece, provided Athens implements tough reforms. The move averts the country from bankruptcy and dismissal from the Euro zone. Inside the Deal Prime minister Alexis Tsipras has no choice but to agree with the harsh austerity measures demanded by the Euro zone in return for the loans. These include streamlining pensions, boosting tax revenues especially VAT, liberalizing the labor market with extended shop opening hours, privatizing the electricity network and introduction of “quasi-automatic” spending cuts if Greece deviates from primary surplus targets. Apart from these, Greece has to raise €50 billion through privatization over the next three years, half of which will be used for the recapitalization of Greek banks. The rest will be split between the debt repayment and investment in the Greek economy. Greece must act on some of these reforms, including tax and pension, by July 15 to regain the faith of the Euro zone leaders. If this happens, Greece would grant a bailout package of up to €86 billion ($96 billion) over the next three years. The deal, awaiting approval from the Greek parliament, will be the country’s third bailout in five years. ETFs to Watch The market cheered a conditional agreement aimed at keeping Greece afloat and securing its place in the Euro zone for the future. The Stoxx Europe 600 index surged almost 2% on Monday, bringing back the appeal for the European equities and the related ETFs. Given this, many investors might have turned bullish now and may want to consider going long on the country. For them, a leveraged play on the European markets could be an excellent idea especially after the Greece deal and the cheap money already flowing into the economy. Notably, leveraged ETFs could lead to huge gains in a very short time frame when compared to the simple products. Below we have highlighted five leveraged ETFs for investors who are bullish on Europe right now: ProShares Ultra FTSE Europe ETF (NYSEARCA: UPV ) This fund seeks to deliver two times (2x or 200%) exposure to the daily performance of the FTSE Developed Europe Index. The benchmark measures the performance of the 515 large and mid-cap securities of the 16 developed market countries: Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The fund has amassed $36.2 million and trades in a light volume of less than 16,000 shares per day. It charges 95 bps in fees per year and has lost 4.6% in the trailing one-month period. Direxion Daily FTSE Europe Bull 3x Shares (NYSEARCA: EURL ) This ETF seeks to deliver three times (3x or 300%) the daily performance of the FTSE Developed Europe Index. The product has AUM of $73.5 million and charges 95 bps in fees and expenses. It trades in moderate volumes of nearly 89,000 shares per day and is down 5.8% in the trailing one-month period. Barclays ETN+ FI Enhanced Europe 50 ETN (NYSEARCA: FEEU ) This is an ETN option providing leveraged exposure of two times the performance of the Stoxx Europe 50 USD Gross Return Index. The benchmark comprises 50 European blue-chip companies selected from within the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. The note has been able to manage assets of $966.8 million but trades in a light volume of 6,000 shares a day. It charges 29 bps in annual fees from investors and has lost 2.2% over the past one month. Credit Suisse FI Enhanced Europe 50 ETN (NYSEARCA: FIEU ) Like Barclays ETN, FIEU also provides two times leveraged exposure to the performance of the Stoxx Europe 50 USD Gross Return Index. It has $289 million in AUM and trades in volume of less than 15,000 shares a day. Expense ratio came in at 0.60%. The ETN is down 2.44% over the past one month. Direxion Daily MSCI Europe Currency Hedged Bull 2x Shares (NYSEARCA: HEGE ) This fund debuted on the market last month and has amassed $4.1 million in its asset base so far. It seeks to deliver twice the daily performance of the MSCI Europe US Dollar Hedged Index, which provides exposure to the European equity market and hedges the euro to the U.S. dollar. The product trades in average daily volume of under 2,000 shares and charges 95 bps in annual fees. It has lost 1% since its debut. Bottom Line As a caveat, investors should note that these products are extremely volatile and suitable only for short-term traders. Additionally, the daily rebalancing – when combined with leverage – may make these products deviate significantly from the expected long-term performance figures. Still, for ETF investors who are bullish on the European equity market for the near term, either of the above products could make an interesting choice. Clearly, a near-term long could be intriguing for those with high-risk tolerance, and a belief that the “trend is the friend” in this corner of the investing world. Original Post

Hold GLD In The Tug Of War Over Financial Stability In 2015

Summary Refuted the recent market doubt of FOMC liftoff in 2015 introduced by Warren Buffett with 3 sources. They are opinions of FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed’s John Williams, strong January 2015 labor data, and influential centrist James Bullard from St. Louis Fed. Current low interest rate environment is put into perspective, and rate hikes will contribute to financial stability in the U.S. Currently, there is a tug of war for financial stability with the U.S. contributing to financial stability and Europe contributing to financial instability. Investors should continue to hold on to GLD even as financial stability has the upper hand this month as the global situation remains fluid and uncertain. Buffett’s Doubt About FOMC Liftoff Famed billionaire investor Warren Buffett has thrown into doubt the feasibility of the first Fed rate liftoff in mid-2015 in a recent interview with CNBC . Buffett makes the point that with the world in trouble, the higher U.S. rates will pull funds into the U.S. and somehow destabilize the global economy. Given the status of Warren Buffett, it is likely that a significant size of the market will be influenced by his opinion. In this article, I am going to look at the possibility of a rate hike in mid-2015, which is the wide market consensus, through 3 different sources. The first source would be the interview which San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams had with Steve Liesman of CNBC. John Williams is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year and has greater influence on monetary policy. It is to be noted that FOMC Chair Janet Yellen was the President of the San Francisco Fed before her ascendancy to FOMC Governor and her current position as Chair of the Fed and FOMC. The second source would be the latest labor market conditions released by the Department of Labor last Friday on 06 February, 2015, for January 2015. This has a high impact on the decision of the Fed to raise rates as part of its employment mandate. The third source would be St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s essay for the Regional Economist last month. While Bullard is not a voting member of the FOMC this year, he is an influential member of the FOMC and has held his current position from March 2011. Research by Macroeconomic Advisers has showed that Bullard has the most impact on the bond market among all Fed policymakers in 2013. He even outshines the then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on an overall basis, but Ben has more influence on a per speech basis. This is due to his position as a policy centrist and his ability to move the FOMC as seen in this Boston Journal article. Hence, his views are an integral part in the analysis of the timeline of the possible rate liftoff. San Francisco Fed’s View of Rate Liftoff San Francisco Fed President John Williams had the CNBC interview recently on 30 January, 2015. Steve Liesman asked the question that is on everyone’s mind, and I reproduce it below (exactly as it appears on the site) for your reference: “LIESMAN: SO DOES ALL THAT KEEP YOU ON TRACK FOR WHAT YOU HAD SAID EARLIER, WHICH IS A MID-2015 FIRST RAKE HIKE, OR LIFT-OFF OF THE FED? WILLIAMS: SO MY CURRENT VIEW AND THIS IS, OF COURSE, MY VIEW. I’M NOT SPEAKING FOR MY COLLEAGUES. IT’S THAT AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR IS THE TIME THAT I THINK IN MY VIEW THAT WE’LL BE GETTING CLOSER TO THE SHOULD WE RAISE RATES NOW OR SHOULD WE WAIT A LITTLE LONGER, COLLECT SOME MORE DATA, GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST? MY VIEWS ARE BASICALLY THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST FEW MONTHS. THE ROUND MIDYEAR IS A GOOD GUESS. FOR WHEN WE REALLY ARE GETTING CLOSE TO THAT POINT, THAT RAISING RATES WILL BE APPROPRIATE. I’M NOT PREDICTING THAT IT WILL BE JUNE OR ANY PARTICULAR MEETING. BUT I THINK WE’RE GETTING CLOSER TO THAT POINT.” Williams had made it clear that he would expect the FOMC to lift rates in mid-2015. Liesman did quite a comprehensive interview with Williams and talked about the issues of employment (which we will revisit again later with the latest report) and inflation. The short story is that Williams has repeated the standard FOMC view that this period of low energy prices is transitory and the Fed has to see past that. His view is that after the end of 2016, this transitory period would have passed and inflation will return to the 2% inflation target. Strong January 2015 Labor Data As for the employment data, Williams predicted a strong economy growing at 3% this year, along with a tight labor market. For 2014, Williams mentioned that the U.S. added, on average, 250,000 jobs per month, and this is strong growth. He would not expect such a strong employment growth this year. If so, he will be pleasantly surprised by the latest January 2015 labor data last week. The Department of Labor reported that the U.S. added 257,000 jobs last month over market consensus of 236,000. This is good news even if it came in lesser than the revised 329,000 for December 2014. In a sign of tight labor market, the average hourly pay rose 0.5% with significant job gains in the retail trade, construction, healthcare, financial services and manufacturing sectors of the economy. The slight increase in unemployment rate was due to 2 factors. The first is a technical readjustment due to new census data collected last year. The second reason is more encouraging because the strong economy has encouraged 155,000 discouraged workers to reapply for jobs. This expanded the labor pool in the U.S., and this is why this is good news despite the slightly higher unemployment rate. Taken together, recent data would encourage the Fed to raise rates at an earlier date. One point to note is that there are some who see the headline growth of 2.6% for the fourth quarter as a disappointment because it is a sharp difference from the 5% figure of the third quarter. However, one should note that the Bureau of Economic Analysis report shows that there was strong growth in consumption, which is 70% of U.S. GDP. It is greater consumption of foreign goods which pushed down net export that caused the relative weakness in the last quarter’s GDP growth. St. Louis Fed’s Support for Liftoff Lastly, I put in Bullard’s view into my analysis of the possible rate liftoff. Bullard penned the following essay titled ” Liftoff: A Comparison of Two Normalization Cycles ” for The Regional Economist last month. He compared the liftoff from September 1992 to February 1993 with rates at 6% to the later liftoff from June 2004 to June 2006 with rates at 5.25%. He described the first liftoff as disorderly and data dependent and the second liftoff as orderly but not market dependent. The disorderly first liftoff with a mixture of 25, 50 and 75 basis point rate hike resulted in a strong and robust economy at the cost of turmoil in the bond markets. The second liftoff was orderly at 25 basis points throughout with consideration for the economic data, but it weakened the economy as low interest rates resulted in a housing bubble, along with lax oversight which burst in 2007. There are 2 things to note in the Bullard’s essay. First, he makes no mention over possible reasons for the Fed not to raise rates this year. In fact, the question is not if the Fed will raise rates, this is a given. The question is how should the Fed raise rates in the most effective way for good economic growth. The second point is more subtle but relevant. Bullard has made the point indirectly that for the sake of financial stability in the U.S., the U.S. should be prepared to take the pain of higher interest rates. It was low interest rates that led to the 2005 housing bubble in the first place, and when it burst, it resulted in a world of pain not only for the U.S., but also the whole world when Lehman Brothers collapsed along with it. There is this central contention that higher interest rates will lead to higher and quality economic growth, and the best way to do so is to raise rates with clear communications to the market. This is the lesson learnt in the 2 rates normalization exercises since 1992. Putting it into Perspective This point of financial stability brings me back to the original point made by Warren Buffett and eventually gold. My opinion is that it is true that the higher interest rates in the U.S. will attract funds to the U.S., and troubled places like Europe, Japan and emerging markets might be adversely affected. There is this view that if the world doesn’t do well, the U.S. will not do well either. However, this is a rather moot point because the funds will want to leave troubled economies in one way or another. The bright spot of the U.S. economy will give these funds a clear destination instead of it being channeled into other asset classes and cause unintended consequences such as a housing bubble. To keep current U.S. interest rate environment in perspective, I quote Williams again (exactly as it appears on the site) from the interview: “LIESMAN: BUT IF INFLATION IS NOT MOVING TOWARDS YOUR 2% TARGET, IF WAGES AREN’T MOVING UP OR ANYTHING CLOSE TO THAT 3% OR 3.5% TARGET, WHY WOULD YOU BE RAISING INTEREST RATES AT THAT TIME? WILLIAMS: WELL I THINK TWO POINTS I WOULD LIKE TO GET ACROSS. FIRST OF ALL, WE ARE GETTING PRETTY CLOSE ALREADY BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS YEAR IN MY VIEW TO FULL EMPLOYMENT. IN OUR EMPLOYMENT MANDATE, I THINK WE’LL BE CLOSER TO ACHIEVING THAT. THE SECOND IS WE HAVE TO REMEMBER WE’RE STARTING FROM A POSITION WITH EXTRAORDINARY MONETARY ACCOMMODATION. WE HAVE ZERO INTEREST RATES, WHICH MEANS NEGATIVE INFLATION ADJUSTED INTEREST RATES. AND OVER A $4 TRILLION BALANCE SHEET. I’M NOT TALKING ABOUT NORMALIZING MONETARY POLICY OR EVEN TIGHTENING POLICY IN A WAY. I’M TALKING ABOUT STARTING TO PROCESS WHERE WE TRIM BACK SOME OF THE EXTRAORDINARY ACCOMMODATION WE HAVE IN PLACE.” I have taken the liberty to underline the most important point in the quote and the rest is to put some context into the quote. This shows that from the Fed’s perspective, this is merely about trimming back the extraordinary monetary accommodation that is long overdue, and this is not as drastic as the market would make it out to be. It should also be noted that the FOMC statement has considered international developments when it issued the bullish statement last month which anchors the mid-2015 rate lift-off expectations. Financial Stability Tug of War Of course, there is the more valid point that it is the opinion of the FOMC voting member that will count in the end result of the actual rate liftoff. After going through these 3 sources, investors should be convinced that rate hikes are likely to be anchored in mid-2015. This is likely to contribute to the financial stability in the U.S. While the current Greek debt drama in Europe is a drag on financial stability, the intention of the FOMC to lift rates is a strong anchor to financial stability. My view is that inflation has a lesser influence on gold prices when compared to the issue of financial stability. The actions of the FOMC will put a floor to the price of gold due to the stability it provides, and funds leaving Europe will find safe harbor in the deep US market. This tug of war between forces of instability in Europe and stability in U.S. is now being pulled in the direction of the U.S. Simply put, the market has priced in the Greek drama last month which saw the sharp gains in gold. This month, the game of brinkmanship is being played out between Greece and the Troika in full public display, but it is unlikely to move the markets much despite the amount of drama generated in the process. This is because the Eurozone is much more prepared to handle the mess of a Grexit with its various backstop mechanisms. Right now, the market assumption is that even if the negotiations fail and Greece has to leave, these backstop mechanisms will be sufficient to absorb the impact. Of course, these assumptions can change as this is a fluid and dynamic situation which will affect other bigger debtor countries like Portugal and Italy. The fallout for these countries is harder to contain. GLD as a Hedge Against Financial Instability (click to enlarge) There are many ways to gain exposure to gold, but my recommendation would be to use the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ) as it is the most liquid Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) for gold exposure with a market capitalization of $30.70 billion and transaction volume of 13 million. We can see from the GLD chart above, the appreciation of GLD from $112 to $126 in January 2015. This 12.5% rise is the market pricing in the European instability, and the subsequent decline from $126 to $118 now reflects the strong economic growth of the U.S., especially the strong labor market data last Friday as mentioned earlier. This has increased the possibility of an earlier rate liftoff by the Fed, which will contribute to greater financial stability in the world. The big question is whether GLD can hold the resistance at $117. Given the instability in Europe, my view is that the $117 resistance level will be a difficult level to cross. However, it is clear that financial stability will have the upper hand this month as the deadline for the Greek debt negotiation is until 28 February, 2015, even if there are pressures to push forward that deadline. As long as both sides are still talking, we can assume that things will be contained at least for this month no matter how drastic the media will make it out to be. In any case, investors should continue to hold GLD in their portfolio and withstand the inevitable volatility in this tug of war over financial stability. Over a longer-time horizon, it is unclear which side will prevail. Hence, it would be a wise decision to hold on to GLD until the situation clarifies itself. Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.