Tag Archives: italy

Why FAs Should Hedge Against Declining AUM: Financial Advisors’ Daily Digest

If a market downturn shrinks your AUM and your clients flee to cash (thus, further reducing your fee basis), you’re looking at a serious reduction in revenue. SA contributor Robert Boslego puts it this way: “Although RIAs with AUM revenue models rarely think that they are in the commodity business, their income fluctuates with asset prices just as an oil producer’s revenues fluctuate with oil prices.” While not predicting the timing of the next downturn, Boslego suggests advisory firms can take actions now to protect against this revenue-jeopardizing eventuality . Indeed, your humble digest editor has in like fashion hedged against his own impending absence during the upcoming Passover holiday by recruiting the resourceful and talented Robyn Conti , who has graciously volunteered to supply advisors with relevant links over the course of the next week. If you are not already subscribed to Robyn’s feed, please do so now – if for no other reason than to receive her own highly engaging bimonthly digest addressing income issues. Below, please find links of interest to advisors, starting with a fascinating post on the transition from accumulation to distribution that we discussed yesterday (you might want to check out all the interesting reader comments):

A Shopping List For Bargain Hunters

The old saying that “things can always get worse” seems to be an apt description for markets so far this year. A poor start to the year has snowballed into an environment in which investors are being paid to “sell the rallies.” Year-to-date global equity markets are down roughly 10 percent in dollar terms, as measured by Bloomberg performance data for the MSCI ACWI Index (NASDAQ: ACWI ). While a few markets, notably Canada and Mexico, are flat to nominally higher, several market segments, including U.S. biotech, China and Italy are down more than 20 percent since the start of the year, according to Bloomberg data for the Nasdaq Biotechnology index and the respective MSCI country indices. Against this backdrop, bargain-hunting investors are asking whether there may be opportunities. My take: Given that the sell-off is occurring in the aftermath of a multi-year bull market, stocks overall still aren’t cheap. That said, it’s not too early to begin compiling a shopping list of potential bargains that may be worth considering . While the selling has returned some value to equities, the best that can be said is that most markets now look reasonable. According to a BlackRock analysis using Bloomberg data, a global benchmark ( ACWI ) is trading at around 16.5x trailing earnings , down around 7.5 percent from last summer’s peak but roughly in-line with the 10-year valuation average. Global stocks look cheaper on a price-to-book ( P/B ) basis, but with the exception of emerging markets equities, they are only trading at a small discount to their 10-year average. If valuation is unlikely to put a floor under markets, there are two other scenarios that could help establish a bottom: signs of economic stabilization or a more aggressive, coordinated response from central banks. As I don’t view either as imminent , markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term. There’s value to be found if you know where to look However, for investors looking to bargain hunt, there are certain segments of the market that are trading at a significant discount. While it may still be too early to pull the purchase trigger, these two segments in particular are worth a closer look. 1. Emerging Markets. After underperforming for the better part of the past five years, emerging market stocks, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, are one of the few, genuinely cheap asset classes. At roughly 1.25x trailing book value, emerging market equities are trading at a level last seen at their trough in early 2009. On a relative basis, using the MSCI World Index as a proxy for developed markets, EM stocks trade at nearly a 35 percent discount to developed markets, the largest such discount since the market bottom in 2003, according to an analysis of data accessible via Bloomberg. 2. Energy stocks . The other universally unloved asset class is energy. While assessing ” fair value ” is always an elusive exercise when discussing commodities, the recent plunge in oil prices seems to have created value in energy-related companies . With energy firms’ earnings still plunging, their price-to-earnings ( P/E ) ratios don’t look very appealing. However, based on P/B measurements, the sector, as represented by the S&P 500 GIC Energy Sector, is trading at the lowest level of the past twenty years and at about a 45 percent discount to the broader U.S. equity market. Even assuming future write-downs, the current discount looks large. Emerging markets and energy have another argument in their favor: Over the past several months, rising volatility has begun to chip away at the momentum trade. Long positions in biotech and tech darlings have already been hit. Downside momentum plays continue to work, but being underweight, or short, energy or emerging market stocks have become very crowded trades. Similar to what has happened to long-side momentum plays , such downside momentum trades are likely to violently reverse at some point. When that occurs, these two segments appear well positioned to benefit. This post originally appeared on the BlackRock Blog.

ECB To Be More Dovish? Watch These ETFs

The European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi surprised the global market yesterday by giving cues of further policy easing in its March meeting. This came on the heels of Draghi’s repeated assurance of a more intensified and protracted policy easing, if need be. With the Euro zone growth picture still dull and the inflationary environment slackening considerably, prospects of further rate cuts and a likely raise in ECB’s ongoing QE measure have high chances of manifestation. Draghi reaffirmed that the ECB will evaluate and ‘possibly reconsider’ the monetary policy in the March meeting. The reason behind this dovish stance was a 12-year low Brent crude which ruined the possibility of any improvement in inflation in 2016. The ECB economists had projected the annual inflation rate to inch up ‘from 0.2% recorded in December 2015 and average 1% this year, rising further in 2017’. But with oil prices sliding 40% more than the time when the projections were made, Draghi is now skeptical of inflation in 2016, as per the Wall Street Journal. At present, ECB expects 2016 inflation to be 0.7% (down from 1% projected earlier) while inflation for 2017 is expected to be 1.4% (down from 1.5% guided previously) (read: Dovish Draghi Drives Up These European ETFs ). The ECB took several meaningful steps in last two years to bolster the common currency bloc. It launched an asset buying program at the start of 2015 and extended the program by six more months to March 2017 at the end of the year. The bank also cut its deposit rate by 10 bps, shoving it deeper into the negative territory to -0.3% (read: 4 European ETFs to Buy on Cheaper Valuations, QE Launch ). While the markets did not appreciate ECB’s year-end stimulus measure as they expected an outsized expansion in the QE policy and steeper cuts in interest rates, global stocks liked ECB’s statement this time around. Market Impact Several Euro zone ETFs rallied on January 21 post Draghi’s comment. Among the toppers were the iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF (NYSEARCA: EWI ) , the Barclays ETN + FI Enhanced Europe 50 ETN (NYSEARCA: FEEU ) , the Credit Suisse FI Enhanced Europe 50 ETN (NYSEARCA: FIEU ) , the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (NYSEARCA: EWU ) and the iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEARCA: HEZU ) with gains of about 2.9%, 1.8%, 1.5%, 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively. Euro also shed gains as evident by 0.03% losses incurred by the CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: FXE ) . The fund shed more gains of about 0.1% after hours. ETFs to Play Investors may take advantage of this euphoria in the European market. The first option is to bet on our top-ranked European ETFs. Below we highlight two options. Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Germany Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBGR ) DBGR is a hedged German equity ETF providing exposure to 56 firms. The fund focuses on Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Health Care sectors. Expense ratio comes in at 0.45%. DBGR has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy) with a Medium risk outlook. DRGR was up 1.3% on January 21, 2016. Deutsche X-trackers MSCI United Kingdom Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBUK ) This hedged UK ETF has amassed about $4 million in assets. The fund holds114 stocks presently and charges 45 bps in fees. Financials, Consumer Staples, Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care have a double-digit weight in the fund. The fund was up 1.4% on January 21 and carries a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy). Investors can also play this move by shorting the euro ETFs. Below, we highlight a few choices in the inverse euro ETF space. These ETFs profit when the euro declines and may be suitable for hedging purposes against the fall in the currency. ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF (NYSEARCA: EUO ) This leveraged ETF looks to provide twice the inverse exposure to the performance of euro versus the U.S. dollar on a daily basis. The ETF charges a hefty annual expense ratio of 95 basis points. The product was up 0.04% on January 21. Investors could book more profits off this fund, should the euro continue to struggle. Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN (NYSEARCA: DRR ) This is an exchange-traded note issued by Morgan Stanley. The product seeks to track the performance of the Double Short Euro Index. For every 1% weakening of the euro relative to the greenback, the index normally gains 2%. The product charges an expense ratio of 0.65% a year and advanced about 1% (as of January 21, 2016). Link to the original on Zacks.com