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5 Outperforming CEFs That Are Insulated From Market Corrections

Summary The 2015 market correction caused a 10% drop across the market, but some CEFs were unaffected. Investing in market-neutral CEFs can help you protect your portfolio in the event of an event. I present a list of the 5 most profitable CEFs that are also uncorrelated to the general market. The previous market correction was a three-day selloff that led us to a market that trended sideways for two months. In total, the market lost 10% of its value before climbing back to its original place: (click to enlarge) Knowing not to freak out and to hold onto your investments is good, but having investments that are uncorrelated to the general market in the first place is better. This article is a follow-up to two other articles on investments uncorrelated to the S&P 500. The first article was on investment categories; the second on index funds. This article will be on CEFs, as per a reader request: (click to enlarge) Correlation In my previous article, I used a five-year lookback period. But if we are to really consider these investments uncorrelated to the market, they should not fall when the market does. Hence, the following comment: For this purpose, in this article, I will only be looking at the most recent market correction as my lookback duration. Thus, the correlation calculation will be from August to November, 2015. Whenever we look at the correlation of two investment instruments, we must use the log of those investments. In this way, we find the correlation of returns, not simply price movement. The result will tell us whether two investments are likely to give the same returns over our lookback period. I wrote some R code to screen CEFs according to the following criteria: Trading above $5 (therefore not a penny stock). Has a correlation of less than 0.3 (in magnitude) to the SPDR S&P500 Select ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ). I then arranged those CEFs in order of greatest return over the past year. I chose the top five CEFs in this list to present to you. Because the top five actually had 3 municipal bond CEFs, I went down the list to add 2 more CEFs outside of this category. The Winners Nuveen Long/Short Commodity TR (NYSEMKT: CTF ) This CEF is a portfolio of long and short futures contracts. CTF purposefully plays a flat game, not taking too many long or short positions. Though it would have been nice to see CTF short energy, making their shareholders lots of cash over the past couple years, CTF has avoided such high-volatility trades. Though CTF’s Nav growth is rather slow, dipping into negative territory, this CEF is trading at a decent discount: -4.36%. The yield is currently 7.54%. Whether CTF can maintain these payouts at its current Nav growth is questionable. The discount is disappearing, however. The discount bottomed out at over -20% in 2014 and has recently bounced back. Thus, if you’re interested in getting in on this high-yield CEF, you should consider doing it soon. Remarkably, CTF is the only CEF in the top five that is not a bond-based fund. Correlation with market-correction phase SPY: 0.27 Babson Capital Corporate Invs (NYSE: MCI ) Here, the focus is on non-investment grade corporate debt. The equities involved are conversion rights, preferred shares, and warrants. Because of the inclusion of conversion rights, the debt here is convertible, which can lead to a dilution of shares. Nevertheless, the yield is high, at 6.80%. However, the surge in price has caused MCI to outgrow its Nav. The Nav sits at a stable 14.70, while the CEF trades at over $17. This CEF is selling at a 10.82% premium. If you buy this CEF, you will be overpaying for the portfolio. But for a long-term investment, MCI seems to provide noteworthy returns. Correlation with market-correction phase SPY: 0.19 Municipal Bond CEFs EV NJ Municipal Bond (NYSEMKT: EMJ ) Blackrock VA Municipal Bond (NYSEMKT: BHV ) Blackrock Muniyield Arizona (NYSEMKT: MZA ) These CEFs offer generous distribution rates of around 5.00. Both BHV and MZA trade at a premium, while EMJ trades at a slight discount. That discount is soon to be gone, as it has been shrinking over the past year. Buying a municipal bond fund can especially benefit you via tax exemptions if you live in a state with high taxes, as these bonds are tax-free investments in most cases. However, realize that EMJ will cause you to pay capital gains taxes on your investment, as it is currently trading at a discount. All of these regions – New Jersey, Virginia, and Arizona – are, to my knowledge, in good shape. But you should perform due diligence and ensure that the local governments aren’t facing problems of paying their debts. Residents in states with high taxes, such as New York, New Jersey, and California, should consider these CEFs. EMJ’s correlation with market-correction phase SPY: -0.09 BHV’s correlation with market-correction phase SPY: 0.25 MZA’s correlation with market-correction phase SPY: -0.11 Doubleline Opportunistic Credit (NYSE: DBL ) With a yield of 8.22, it’s no surprise that DBL isn’t trading at a discount. DBL has almost consistently been trading at a premium. But there have been dips into the discount region. An investor looking for a good deal might keep an eye on DBL and buy at one of these rare discounts. Just remember that a drop in the premium/discount will also typically drop the yield toward the sector’s average. In addition, as time goes on and rates increase, credit-based CEFs such as DBL will likely take a hit. You should also consider leverage here, as rates will likely be rising in the future. Higher leverage implies higher borrowing fees for the fund. DBL might be a good short-term hold, but you should consider dropping it for non-credit CEFs with less leverage before rates rise. Correlation with market-correction phase SPY: 0.02 Strategic Global Income (NYSE: SGL ) Speaking of leverage, here’s a non-leveraged CEF. Previously trading at one hell of a discount, SGL is now trading at “only” a -4.12% discount. This offers the highest discount of all the market-neutral CEFs we looked at today, with a yield of 9.42%. As the name suggests, SGL invests in global bonds. Its holdings branch from Argentina to Russia. These bonds are diversified, with both sovereign paper and corporate notes in the mix. Although a portfolio of such a wide geographical array of holdings is more likely than a focused portfolio to encounter a holding that cannot repay its debt, the fact that SGL is diversified should minimize such problems. The risk is there, but the reward is higher, I believe. This fund doesn’t have many downsides other than the exposure to iffy countries (the average credit rating of SGL’s holdings is still A) and the fact that SGL is taxable. Correlation with market-correction phase SPY: 0.11 Conclusion Overall, we have a wide selection of market-neutral CEFs that can help us generate stable income even during a market correction or crash. Of the five we looked at, I would recommend SGL most to investors in low-tax states, while recommending the municipal bond CEFs to investors in high-tax states. But no matter your choice, rest assured that these CEFs will be least affected by another market correction. Obviously, I simply don’t have the time to cover every industry. While reading this article, you probably thought of at least one investment that should have gone in my “Winners” section. Let me know about it in the comments section below. Request a Statistical Study If you would like for me to run a statistical study on a specific aspect of a specific stock, commodity, or market, just request so in the comments section below. Alternatively, send me a message or email.

Dollar/Yen As A Hedge To Oil Investments

Summary Oil and oil companies seem like attractive bets, however there are many near term risks. In an environment of persistent low oil prices, the BOJ has assured continued QE or increases in QE. The dollar has an inverse correlation to oil, therefore a dollar hedge allows for a pure supply/demand bet on oil. The case for being long oil (NYSEARCA: OIL ) has been made numerous times on this website and others, but I will recap a few of the salient points here for completeness. Oil may be attractive from a supply point of view. Most of the new supply that led to the recent glut came from shale oil wells in the United States. In fact, oil production from other sources of world oil actually declined during the period from 2012 to 2014. Source: Resilience.org Shale oil wells have rapid decline curves compared to conventional wells. Source: oilprice.com As shown above, the production rate is a small fraction of the initial production by years 2-3. Therefore, we ought to expect that roughly two years after oil rig counts began to decline, the supplies of crude oil ought to begin to fall rapidly. However, the timetable for this recovery in oil price has been delayed due to the fact that several E&P companies were slow to stop drilling. In a last ditch effort to produce cash flows from their land, many companies continued to drill even at unfavorable prices. Source: marketrealist.com Though crude began to fall in July of 2014, companies didn’t start reducing rig count until many months later, and rig counts didn’t reach the current lower range until the spring of this year. This led to a situation where US supply didn’t start to roll over until the beginning of this year. Despite the drop in rig counts, the supply coming out of US shale is still higher than it was at the start of the crash in oil prices: Source: QuintoCapital.com This makes for an interesting situation of time arbitrage. The sharp decline in shale wells, combined with a lack of new drilling in the U.S., means that by 2017 (2 years from the peak shale oil supply seen in the above chart) the U.S. supply should be low enough to begin to positively affect oil prices. Investors who are convinced of the above argument may take a long position either in the commodity (via futures) or in specific, cash-rich E&P names that are unlikely to go bankrupt, and wait out the supply-demand imbalance. However, there is a danger in catching a falling knife – commodity speculators are currently riding the trend for lower prices, and stock traders are following suit with oil stocks. In addition, there is a risk that the oil supply/demand mismatch may worsen when Iran brings new production online. A long position in oil or oil stocks could pay off eventually, but lead to disastrous portfolio results in the meantime. Therefore, it is desirable to hedge such a position. The Case for Shorting the Yen ( YCS ) Japan’s central bank, unlike the Federal Reserve, uses a measure of inflation that includes the cost of energy. Thus, the fall in oil prices has set back its goal of ending deflation. Though Haruhiko Kuroda has been insisting that this is a temporary setback, one must consider what would have to happen for an investment in a cash-rich E&P firm to go poorly – namely, we would have to see much lower oil prices before the supply glut ends. Take a look at comments Kuroda made earlier this year (emphasis added): “…however, based on the assumption that crude oil prices are expected to rise moderately from the recent level , the CPI is likely to reach 2 percent in or around fiscal 2015. Needless to say, the Bank maintains its policy stance that it will make adjustments as necessary without hesitation, when there are changes in trend inflation, in order to achieve the price stability target at the earliest possible time. The Bank will not respond to developments in crude oil prices themselves, but in conducting monetary policy, it will closely monitor how they affect inflation expectations — or, in other words, whether conversion of the deflationary mindset will nevertheless proceed.” And, more recently, “The timing of reaching the inflation target depends on oil, he told reporters in Tokyo. Kuroda, 71, reiterated that the BOJ won’t hesitate to adjust policy if necessary.” And “Kuroda said he didn’t see limits to further policy steps, amid concern among private analysts that the BOJ’s campaign — mainly purchases of Japanese government bonds, or JGBs — is running up against constraints. He didn’t think a limit on buying JGBs would come soon.” The latest inflation numbers for September showed inflation at -.1% , a far cry from the 2% goal. While Kuroda stated that the BOJ will not specifically respond to oil prices, lower oil prices are bound to continue to bring down inflation expectations. I take the above comments as basically an assurance that as long as oil prices stay low, the BOJ will continue its QE program, and if oil prices fall further, there is a high likelihood that the BOJ will ramp up its QE program yet again. The Case for Being Long The U.S. Dollar There has been a strong inverse relationship between the dollar (NYSEARCA: UUP ) and oil: Source: quintocapital.com This correlation makes sense: because oil is priced in dollars, the strong dollar has contributed to the fall in oil prices. While Japan has been concentrated on stepping up its QE program, the US Federal Reserve has basically told market participants that it plans to raise rates in December. This divergence in policies is driving the USD/JPY higher, and the oil price lower. So going long the dollar in addition to being long oil provides investors a way to play oil purely for its supply-demand characteristics, rather than its aspect as an alternative currency. A word about China There has been a perception that the crash in Chinese stock prices will lead, or already has led, to weakening oil demand. However, the opposite is actually true – Chinese oil demand is actually up 9.2% year-over-year , as lower prices have stimulated demand. As Stanley Druckenmiller said earlier this year , the cure for high prices is high prices, and the cure for low prices is low prices. Putting it together I think there’s a strong case out there for being long oil right now. However, there is always a risk that the fall in oil could become overdone, and we could see oil prices that are in the $20-$30 range before we see prices in the $60-70 range. In order to hedge this volatility, I think there’s a good case for being long the US dollar, specifically against the yen, which will devalue further if oil either stays low or drops further. Any thoughts are always appreciated.

El Paso Electric: Fairly Valued, No Significant Upside

Summary We initiate coverage on El Paso Electric with a Neutral rating and TP of $40. The TP is based upon company’s future financial performance and historical valuation against industry peers. Current political situation in El Paso may cause challenges in reaching a settlement with the PUCT. Thus, the company would have to face uncertainty related to litigation. PVR anticipates the regulators of Texas and New Mexico to finally allow the significant increase in rate base. However, the current stock price is not including uncertainty related to regulatory. EE would have to apply for relief in rates in challenging jurisdictions as a result of new generation investment. Plain Vanilla Research ((NYSE: PVR )) initiates coverage on El Paso Electric Co. (NYSE: EE ) with a Neutral rating and a target price ((TP)) of $40. Since September, the stock price of El Paso Electric has outperformed the Utilities Sector by 7.28 percentage points (ppts). This is shown in the chart below: (click to enlarge) However, we think that the performance is not sustainable in the future as the company is facing challenges on multiple fronts. This restricts the stock from offering significant upside potential. In addition to that, a dividend yield of only 3% is not very attractive to tempt dividend investors. We will be discussing the challenges below: 1. Political Circumstances In El Paso In the past, proceedings related to change in rate base in El Paso have been engulfed with politics a lot. The company can be anticipated to face an interesting stance from the City Council officials as they will try to create challenges for the company to reach a settlement agreement. Furthermore, the supporters of solar-powered energy have also entered the arena as the publicly-listed corporation is trying to create alterations in rate design, which would cause installers of rooftop solar panels to make a partial requirements fee payment. Instead of reaching a settlement with the City Council authorities, we think the company should play the long game and wait for a decision from the Public Utilities Commission of Texas (PUCT). Although, the road is long and would result in higher uncertainty but it will result in a more favorable decision for the organization. 2. Approval From Texas And New Mexico Regulatory Authorities We anticipate that the regulatory authorities of Texas and New Mexico will allow the significant increase in rate base at the end. However, the current stock price reflects that investors expect the regulatory authorities to allow the increase in rate in any case. We think that slight hindrance in regulatory approval will result in the stock price on a downward trajectory. Texas is responsible for contributing roughly three-fourth to El Paso Electric’s bottom line. Meanwhile, the remaining contribution is from the state of New Mexico. 3. Demand For Rate Relief Requests In Challenging Jurisdictions El Paso has the finished the construction of two peaking units located at the Montana Power Station (MPS). In addition to that, the company will be finished with the construction of the third unit by spring of next year and by year-end, the company intends to complete the construction of the fourth unit. The four units are natural-gas powered and will have a capacity of 352 megawatts ((NYSE: MW )). These units are built to cater the increasing requirement of electricity in El Paso’s service territory. Montana plant and support infrastructure is anticipated to have a cost of $375 million. The company has been lucky to experience an annual growth rate of 1% to 1.5% for the past several years in the service territory. Normally, the industry has been seeing flat or decline in power consumption. Derivation Of Price Objective PVR has based its target price (TP) of $31 at earnings per share ((NYSEARCA: EPS )) of $2.67 along with a forward P/E multiple of 15.39x. The following forecasted income statement reflects as how we have arrived at our 2018 EPS. Currently, El Paso Electric’s stock is exchanging hand at PVR’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 15.44x. In the past three-years, the stock has traded at an average forward P/E multiple of 14.94x. This reflects that the stock is trading at a premium of 6.5% against its three-year average forward P/E multiple of 14.94x. (click to enlarge) Meanwhile, against its peers’ combined forward P/E multiple of 12.23x, El Paso Electric’s stock is presently trading at a premium of 26.2%. In the past three years, the stock has traded at an average premium of 22% against its peers’ combined forward P/E. (click to enlarge) We have arrived at our target forward P/E multiple for El Paso Electric by calculating the three-year average forward P/E multiple of 12.24x for the combined industry peers. After that, we have applied the three-year historical premium of 22% to the historical average peers’ combined forward P/E multiple to reach El Paso Electric’s target forward P/E multiple of 14.93x. We have formulated the peers forward P/E multiple by combining our forward P/E ratios of Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED ), PG&E Corporation (NYSE: PCG ), PNM Resources Inc (NYSE: PNM ), American Electric Power Company Inc (NYSE: AEP ) and Xcel Energy Inc (NYSE: XEL ) along with El Paso Electric. We have given their respective P/E weight according to their market capitalization.