Tag Archives: virginia

WGL Holdings’ (WGL) CEO Terry McCallister on Q2 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

WGL Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: WGL ) Q2 2016 Earnings Conference Call May 5, 2016 10:30 ET Executives Doug Bonawitz – Investor Relations Terry McCallister – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Vince Ammann – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Adrian Chapman – President and Chief Operating Officer Gautam Chandra – Senior Vice President, Strategy, Business Development and Nonutility Operations Analysts Mark Levin – BB&T Sarah Akers – Wells Fargo Operator Good morning and welcome to the WGL Holdings’ Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded and that all participants are in a listen-only-mode. [Operator Instructions] The call will be available for rebroadcast today at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time running through May 12, 2016. You may access the replay by dialing 1-855-859-2056 and entering PIN number 97338125. I will now turn the conference over to Doug Bonawitz. Please go ahead. Doug Bonawitz Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining our call. Before we begin, I would like to point out that this conference call will include forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those predicted in such forward-looking statements. Statements made on this conference call should be considered together with cautionary statements and other information contained in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and other documents we have filed with or furnished to the SEC. Forward-looking statements speak only as of today and we assume no duty to update them. This morning’s comments will reference a slide presentation. Our earnings release and earnings presentation are available on our website. To access these materials, please visit wglholdings.com. The slide presentation highlights the results for our second quarter of fiscal year 2016 and the drivers of those results. On today’s call, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including operating earnings of WGL Holdings on a consolidated basis and adjusted EBIT of our operating segments. A reconciliation of these financial measures to the nearest comparable measures reported in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, or GAAP, is provided as an attachment to our press release and is available in the quarterly results section of our website. This morning, Terry McCallister, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer will provide some opening comments. Following that, Vince Ammann, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer will review the second quarter results. Adrian Chapman, President and Chief Operating Officer will discuss key issues affecting our business and the status of some of our principal initiatives. And in addition, Gautam Chandra, Senior Vice President, Strategy, Business Development and Nonutility Operations is also with us this morning to answer your questions. And with that, I would like to turn the call over to Terry McCallister. Terry McCallister Thank you, Doug and good morning everyone. Our non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter is shown on Slide 3 in our presentation were $89.5 million or $1.78 per share compared to $101 million or $2.02 per share in the second quarter of 2015. On a non-GAAP basis, consolidated operating earnings for the first six months were $148.7 million or $2.96 per share. This compares to $159 million in the prior year or $3.18 per share. The decrease in operating earnings in the second quarter primarily driven by lower results on retail energy marketing and midstream operating segments partially offset by higher results at our regulated utility and commercial energy systems operating segments. At the utility, earnings were higher year-over-year primarily due to strong customer growth and rate recovery related to our accelerated pipeline replacement program. We added approximately 11,300 active average utility customer meters year-over-year, which represent an annual growth rate of approximately 1%. We also remain on track to equal last year’s record spend on accelerated replacement program of $113 million. These investments immediately impact earnings and have been a driver of improved results in the utility since the start of these programs in 2011. On the utility regulatory front, Washington Gas filed an application with Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia in February to increase base rates. Filing addresses rate relief necessary for the utility to recover its cost and earn its allowed rate of return. We also continue to anticipate the filing of a rate case in Virginia in the near future and Adrian will talk more about these developments shortly. On the non-utility side of business, as previously mentioned, our commercial energy systems business delivered improved results. We continue to seek earnings growth driven by the distributed generation assets that we own across the country. We remain on track to invest a record $200 million in this area in fiscal 2016. We have also seen more activity locally in our energy efficiency contracting business. Retail energy marketing segment delivered lower results compared to second quarter of 2015. This was expected given the unusually high asset optimization results in 2015 and our expectation of more normal levels in 2016. Midstream energy services also realized lower earnings in 2015 partially due to the effects of warmer weather on current market prices. Given our results in the first six months and our earnings outlook for the remainder of the year, we are affirming our consolidated non-GAAP earnings guidance in the range of $3 to $3.20 per share for fiscal year 2016. I am now going to turn the call over to Vince who will review our second quarter results by segments. Vince Ammann Thank you, Terry. Turning first to our Utility segment, adjusted EBIT for the second quarter of fiscal year 2016 was $153.9 million, an increase of $1.5 million compared to the same period last year. The drivers of this change are detailed on Slide 5. We continued to add new meters. The addition of 11,300 average active customer meters improved adjusted EBIT by $2.3 million. Higher revenues from our accelerated pipe replacement programs also added $3.1 million in adjusted EBIT. Lower operations and maintenance expense improved adjusted EBIT by $4.4 million. Offsetting these items, lower margins associated with our asset optimization program reduced adjusted EBIT by $2.7 million. The unfavorable effect of changes in natural gas consumption patterns in the District of Columbia reduced adjusted EBIT by $2.6 million. Reduced revenues related to the recovery of gas inventory carrying costs due to lower gas prices decreasing the value of our storage gas balances reduced adjusted EBIT by $600,000. Other miscellaneous items reduced adjusted EBIT by $2.4 million. Turning to the retail energy marketing segment, adjusted EBIT for the second quarter of fiscal year 2016 was $8.4 million, a decrease of $18.7 million compared to the same period last year. On Slide 6, you will see the primary driver of the decrease was lower natural gas gross margins. In the natural gas business, gross margins were $15.7 million lower driven by a decrease in portfolio optimization activity that returned to more historical levels during the quarter. The same quarter in the prior fiscal year showed outsized gains in this area that were not expected to recur in the current year. Electric margins decreased $1.1 million driven by higher capacity charges from the regional power grid operator, PJM that impacted the timing of margin recognition. These costs will decline in the latter half of the year. As stated previously, our retail energy marketing business has increased its focus on large commercial and government account relationships in both the electric and natural gas markets. As a result, the overall number of electric and natural gas accounts both declined this quarter 10% and 7% respectively compared to the prior year. However, indicative of our revised focus, electric volumes increased 7% versus the prior year and natural gas volumes were slightly higher versus the prior year. The increase in commercial load in both electric and natural gas continues to help offset the decline in mass-market customers on a volumetric basis. Operating expenses increased by $1.9 million primarily due to higher commercial broker fees. Next, I will move to the commercial energy systems segment. Adjusted EBIT for the second quarter of fiscal year 2016 was $2.3 million, an increase of $700,000 compared to the same period last year. The increase reflects growth in distributed generation assets in service, including higher income from state rebate programs and solar renewable energy credit sales as well as improved margins from the energy efficiency contracting business. We also saw improved results in our investment in solar businesses related to changes in the recognition of earnings from our solar partnership. These improvements were partially offset by higher operating and depreciation expenses due to additional in-service distributed generation assets and a $3 million impairment related to our investment in thermal solar project recorded during the three-month period. During the second quarter, our commercial distributed generation assets generated over 43,500 megawatt hours of electricity, which is sold to customers through power purchase agreements. This represents a 57% increase in megawatt hours compared to the second quarter of last year. As of March 31, the commercial energy systems segment has invested $449 million in distributed generation assets. Our alternative energy investments, which include ASP, Nextility, and SunEdison represent an additional $128 million of capital investments since inception. We now have approximately $577 million invested in total in this segment. Next, I will move to the midstream energy services segment. Results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2016 reflect an adjusted EBIT loss of $8.4 million compared to a loss of $3.1 million for the same quarter of the prior fiscal year. The decrease is primarily related to the recognition of losses associated with current market pricing. We anticipate these losses will reverse by fiscal year end as we realized the value of economic hedging transactions to be executed during the first two quarters and as certain contractual procedures approach resolution. Results for our other non-utility activities reflect an adjusted EBIT loss of $1.5 million compared to a loss of $800,000 for the same period for the prior fiscal year. Interest expense, primarily driven by long-term debt, was essentially unchanged at $13 million during the second quarter compared to $13.3 million in the prior period. As Terry stated earlier, we are affirming our consolidated non-GAAP operating earnings guidance in the range of $3 to $3.20 per share. This guidance does not include any potential impacts related to the decision in April by the New York Department of Environmental Conservation to deny the Section 401 certification for the Constitution Pipeline, except for the reduction in forecasted AFUDC related to the project. Our expectations for the regulated utility are modestly lower driven by higher O&M costs for system integration work and project expenses related to a new customer service system. On the non-utility side, we anticipate better than expected results in the midstream segment related to the impact of favorable spreads on storage earnings. These will be somewhat offset by lower results in the energy marketing segment as customer growth is expected to be lower than planned for the year. Please note that this earnings guidance includes dilution from the planned issuance of equity in fiscal year 2016. In November, WGL filed a registration statement and launched a program to sell common stock with aggregate proceeds of up to $150 million through an at-the-market or ATM program. WGL first sold shares under this program in February. During the second quarter, WGL issued approximately 466,000 shares of common stock under this ATM program for net proceeds of $31.5 million. I will now turn the call over to Adrian for his comments. Adrian Chapman Thank you, Vince and good morning everyone. I am pleased to provide you with an update on our utility operations and regulatory initiatives. In the District of Columbia, Washington Gas filed an application on February 26 with the Public Service Commission to increase its base rates for natural gas service, which would generate $17.4 million in additional annual revenue. The revenue increase includes $4.5 million associated with accelerated pipeline replacements previously approved by the commission and currently paid by customers through monthly surcharges. On April 27, the commission issued an order approving Washington Gas special contract with the U.S. Architect of the Capitol. This contract for natural gas service will generate annual firm revenues of $2.6 million and results in a reduction of the revenue deficiency in the pending rate case from $17.4 million to $14.8 million. As part of this rate case filing, we requested approval of the revenue normalization adjustment, or RNA. The District of Columbia is currently the only jurisdiction where we do not have revenue decoupling in place. In addition, the filing includes a new combined heat and power rate schedule, which sets forth the framework for the delivery of natural gas for CHP systems to provide flexibility for negotiated rates to better meet customer needs. Finally, in line with our initiatives in other jurisdictions, the filing also proposes new multifamily development incentives to help bring the benefits of natural gas to more residents in the District of Columbia. The application request authority to earn an 8.23% overall rate of return, including a return on equity of 10.25%. A procedural schedule was issued on April 26 by the PSC. Hearings are currently scheduled for October 2016 with the projected issuance of the commission final order in March 2017, which is consistent with their goal of issuing an order 90 days after the close of the evidentiary record. As a reminder, the last rate increase in the District of Columbia was approved in May 2013. In Virginia, we planned to file a new rate case with the Virginia State Corporation Commission on or before July 31. The filing seeks to allow us to rebalance our revenues, expenses and utility investment in the Commonwealth of Virginia and include in base rates the accelerated pipe replacement expenditures whose plant-related costs are currently being recovered in a surcharge. The anticipated filing would transfer approximately $19 million in accelerated pipeline replacement revenues from our current surcharge into base rates. Virginia has a 150-day suspension period, therefore placing new rates into effect for the winter of 2016-2017 subject to refund. Our last rate increase in Virginia was affected in October 2011. Also in Virginia, Virginia allows local distribution companies to recover a return of and return on investments in physical gas reserves that benefit customers by reducing cost, price volatility, or supply risk. Washington Gas entered into an agreement with the producer in May of last year to acquire natural gas reserves in Pennsylvania. However, the SCC of Virginia issued an order denying our gas reserve application. We are continuing our pursuit of a long-term reserve investment opportunity that will benefit our customers and address the issues that were raised by the SCC of Virginia in our previous filing. Once Washington Gas finalizes a new agreement with the producer, we will file a new application with the SCC of Virginia. I would like to now turn the call back to Terry for his closing comments. Terry McCallister Thanks, Adrian. I would now like to highlight a few recent developments and provide an update on the status of our midstream and our distributed generation investments. First, an update on WGL’s investment in the Constitution Pipeline project. On April 22, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation denied the necessary water quality certification for the New York portion of the Constitution Pipeline. While we are disappointed, the partnership remains absolutely committed to the project and intends to challenge the legality and appropriateness of the New York decision. In light of the denial of the water certification and the anticipated action to challenge the decision, target in-service date has been revised to the second half of 2018, which assumes that the legal challenge is satisfactorily and promptly included. We are still evaluating any potential impacts to our financial forecast. As of March 31, WGL Midstream had an equity investment of approximately $40 million in the Constitution Pipeline project. Next, I will turn to our investment in the Central Penn line. Central Penn line is greenfield pipeline segment of Transco’s Atlantic Sunrise project. This project is on track and development activities are proceeding as expected. Central Penn line has projected in-service date to the second half of calendar 2017. WGL Midstream will invest approximately $411 million in the project. And as of March 31, WGL Midstream has invested approximately $51 million. Our third pipeline investment involves Mountain Valley pipeline project. The Mountain Valley pipeline is a proposed 300-mile transmission line through West Virginia and Virginia is designed to help meet the increasing demand for natural gas in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast markets. Project is on track and development activities are proceeding as expected. Projected in-service date is December 2018. WGL Midstream plans to invest $228 million in the project. And as of March 31, WGL Midstream has invested approximately $13 million. In February of this year, WGL Midstream exercised an option for an $89 million equity investment in the Stonewall Gas Gathering system, representing a 35% ownership stake. WGL Midstream’s ownership interest is expected to decrease to 30% during fiscal year 2016, as certain other participants are expected to exercise the rights to invest in the project. The Stonewall system connects with Columbia Gas Transmission, an extensive interstate transmission line that reaches markets across the Mid Atlantic region. M3 Midstream serves as the majority owner and operates the Stonewall Gas Gathering system. The system initiated operations in November of 2015 and is currently gathering 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily from the Marcellus production region in West Virginia. Turning to our commercial energy systems business, our portfolio of distributed generation assets continued to grow this quarter. And as of March 31, we had over 134 megawatts of capacity in-service with an additional 63-megawatt contracted or under construction. WGL Energy recently received approval to build and operate over 15 megawatts of community solar gardens in Minnesota as part of the utility program mandates in that space. WGL Energy has secured subscribers for all of these community solar gardens under a – that are under contract and the target operational date is later in the fall of this year. This investment highlights WGL Energy’s continued strategy of growing its distributed generation assets portfolio by taking advantage of favorable legislation in states like Minnesota. Finally, we look forward to seeing many of you at the AGA Financial Forum in a couple weeks. And that concludes our prepared remarks and we will now be happy to answer your questions. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Thank you. The question-and-answer session will begin now. [Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Mark Levin, BB&T. Please go ahead. Mark Levin Thank you, gentlemen. First question, as it relates to Constitution and maybe how to think about it, as it relates to your long-term guidance and what’s embedded in it, I realize you guys don’t want to quantify it quite yet, but maybe giving us some of the parameters at least to think about? Vince Ammann Yes. Mark, this is Vince. As it relates to our long-term guidance, we – at this point, wouldn’t expect to change that because we think the project is good and it’s worth going forward. So that’s the way we view it from a long-term perspective. What we have done in the short-term is, we have suspended the accrual of AFUDC and that’s just a prudent thing to do, as we are waiting to get this issue resolved. Mark Levin Got it, fair enough. And in your options with regard or the options with regard to Constitution and maybe the timeline as to how to think about how that would proceed? Terry McCallister Yes. This is Terry. I think it’s probably a little premature for us to know that. I think all the partners are looking at that and saying, what are the options, how would we go forward on that. And so I think we are probably just a little – you are probably just a little ahead of the curve for us to know exactly what that looks like, yes. Mark Levin Got it, fair enough. And then finally, just with regard to the gas reserve opportunity, is it reasonable to assume that you guys would be able to strike an agreement sometime this fiscal year. And then the second part to that would be, maybe some of the lessons that you learned from the first attempt? Adrian Chapman Mark, this is Adrian. I think as we have mentioned last quarter, where our target is still to get a filing out before the end of our third fiscal quarter. So I think we are still working towards that as an end result. And I think certainly the commission’s focus was looking at probably the length of the term of the reserve agreement. The 20-year term was a concern of theirs and just uncertainty about pricing in the future. They were – expressed some concern about the different perspectives on the reserves and the volumes in the reserves and what the depletion rates were. So there was some differences of opinion in the hearings about that and I think we just need to be able to give them some greater certainty as to what deliverability would look like, because for a given fixed investment, lower volumes would mean a higher price per dekatherm. So that was the primary concern that they had. So we are working to try to fill those issues, fill those gaps and give the commission comfort with some greater balance of risk associated with an investment. Mark Levin Got it, great. Thanks guys. I appreciate it. Operator And your next question comes from the line of Sarah Akers with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Sarah Akers Thanks. Good morning. Terry McCallister Hi Sarah. Sarah Akers Can you go over again the reasons for the lower utility outlook this year and any sense of the magnitude of the change in expectations there? Vince Ammann I will take a stab at that Sarah, this is Vince. We haven’t – traditionally, throughout the quarter, we haven’t provided specific guidance for the operating segments by – as we go from quarter-to-quarter, just started giving out, as you know consolidated guidance. But the only issue that we are addressing here on the – and what we have discussed is a couple of factors. We continued to see some higher operating expenses in the field as it relates to just leak repairs and system integrity type works that we have been doing that was a little ahead of what we have planned for the current year. We also have seen some higher project expenses. We launched a new e-service portal this year and that’s sort of in advance of going live with our new billing system next year and we had some difficulties when we first launched that and we have spent some dollars to bring that system back to good working condition. So, those are some of the issues that we see that were pretty temporary just for this quarter. And as it relates to the initial guidance and where we saw things last quarter. So, those particular items shouldn’t continue significantly for the rest of the balance of the year. So it’s pretty much a second quarter phenomena that then just caused us to re-think where we were going to be for the rest of the year. So those are the items on the utility side. That’s all I can think of Adrian that is of significance. If you have anything else you want to add, I think. Adrian Chapman No, I think you covered it. Sarah Akers Great. Thank you. And then just one on the midstream, so it sounds like there is some unexpected strength there, do you view that more as one-time opportunistic margins or should that uplift sustain into future years? Gautam Chandra Sarah, this is Gautam. I would say that the up-tick that we saw in midstream is based on the market conditions that we saw in midstream this year that we were able to capitalize on. Now as we have mentioned before, our storage portfolio is a low cost portfolio. So we expected to have good returns in the long-term, but there are some up-ticks and downticks depending on the exact storage spreads in any given year. Vince Ammann Yes. I would only add Sarah, that as we have said – we saw in recent years, we certainly know we can make money on that storage portfolio when the weather is extremely cold and we have the opportunity to pull gas out of storage at real high margins. But what we saw this year is confirming our expectation, which is when the weather is warmer than normal. There is also opportunities to see the seasonal spreads get very significant. So we came out of this winter heating season with a significant amount of gas. As an industry, it’s still in storage and the production levels were still high. So essentially, we saw the front end of the curve come down quite substantially and then yet the pricing for next winter stayed pretty firm. So we saw some good spread opportunities, which is what we would expect when you have warmer than normal sort of winter. So yes, I think as the supply balances out with our country storage, we do see that this is a – the storage play continues to be a low-risk opportunity to create some margins from the value added by storage. Adrian Chapman Sarah, this Adrian. We also hedge forward to some level. When we see that opportunity, we will hedge forward. It’s kind of how big the opportunity, but a lot of it or some of it just lock in a fair amount of value and so when prices fell this last quarter and the forward value didn’t fall, we locked in some of that value. So that’s why we are projecting that pick up during the second half. Sarah Akers Okay, great. Thank you. Operator Again, I would like to remind everyone that you can listen to a rebroadcast of this conference call at 1 p.m. Eastern Time today running through May 12, 2016. You may access the replay by dialing 1-855-859-2056 and entering PIN number 97338125. There are no further questions at this time. And I will turn the call back to Mr. Bonawitz for any additional or closing remarks. Doug Bonawitz Well, thank you all for joining us this morning. And if you do have further questions, please don’t hesitate to call me at 202-624-6129. Thanks and have a great day. Operator This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you for participating. All parties may disconnect now. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) So our reproduction policy is as follows: You may quote up to 400 words of any transcript on the condition that you attribute the transcript to Seeking Alpha and either link to the original transcript or to www.SeekingAlpha.com. All other use is prohibited. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HERE IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE APPLICABLE COMPANY’S CONFERENCE CALL, CONFERENCE PRESENTATION OR OTHER AUDIO PRESENTATION, AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE AUDIO PRESENTATIONS. IN NO WAY DOES SEEKING ALPHA ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS WEB SITE OR IN ANY TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE APPLICABLE COMPANY’S AUDIO PRESENTATION ITSELF AND THE APPLICABLE COMPANY’S SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS. If you have any additional questions about our online transcripts, please contact us at: transcripts@seekingalpha.com . Thank you!

U.S. Manufacturing Shows Signs Of Healing: 3 Mutual Fund Picks

By the end of last year, U.S. manufacturing was tottering on the verge of a recession, after the collapse in commodity prices and a stronger dollar took a toll on American factories. However, based on encouraging readings on factory activity in March, it seems that manufacturing is on a resurgence. Philadelphia, New York and Richmond Fed manufacturing reports were impressive for this month. Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI also ticked up in March, while the ISM manufacturing index had already shown signs of a turnaround last month. A rise in new orders for U.S. factory goods in January points toward an easing in manufacturing slump. For now, even though there is volatility in the oil price movement, it has recovered considerably from its mid-February record low. Moreover, the Fed’s dovish stance in its two-day policy meeting last week has weakened the dollar considerably. In this scenario, it will be prudent to invest in mutual funds that focus on the industrial sector. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLI ) had gained 4.3% on a year-to-date basis, the second-highest among all the S&P 500 sectors. Factory Activity Positive in March Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area turned positive in March for the first time in seven months. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index advanced to 12.4 in March from a negative 2.8 in February. Any reading above zero shows that industrial activity is improving. Separately, new orders and shipments rose significantly. Factory activity in the New York region also expanded this month for the first time since last July. The Empire State manufacturing index rose to 0.6 in March from minus 16.6 in February. While new orders and shipments increased, more manufacturers expect business conditions in the region to improve further in the next six months. A measure of manufacturing activity in the lower U.S. Atlantic region too rose in March. The Richmond Manufacturing Index jumped to 22 this month, its highest level in almost six years. The index had been at a negative 4 in February. The index covers manufacturing activity in the District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and most of West Virginia. Flash PMI Ticks Up, ISM Turns Around Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI came in at 51.4 in March. The PMI showed that manufacturing activity picked up this month from February’s 28-month low of 51. Output and new business volumes moved up at a slightly faster pace compared to February. This reading followed the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) reading on manufacturing activity in February. The ISM manufacturing index increased to 49.5, above January’s reading of 48.2. This indicated that fewer manufacturers had cut back on activities in February than in January. Any reading above 50 shows expansion. Add to this a robust surge in factory orders in January, and it becomes even clearer that the manufacturing sector is coming out of troubled waters. The Commerce Department had reported that new orders for U.S. factory orders rebounded 1.6% in January from a drop of 2.9% in December. New orders increased the most in seven months in January. Factory orders rose broadly in January, with orders for transportation equipment soaring 11.4%. Orders for on-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which indicates business confidence and spending plans, gained 3.4%. Inventory levels, on the other hand, dropped for the seventh straight month, indicating factories were progressing steadily on reducing inventory glut. Buy The 3 Best-Performing Industrial Mutual Funds It looks like the worst of U.S. manufacturing is coming to an end as recent reports on manufacturing activity in core factory hubs such as Philadelphia, New York and Richmond turn out to be promising. An uptick in Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI in March makes us believe that factory activities in the U.S. will improve. In fact, when it comes to the ISM manufacturing index, RBC Capital Markets’ Chief U.S. economist, Tom Porcelli, expects the index to climb above the 50 mark in April. He believes the negative impact of low oil prices and strong dollar will fade. Moreover, record factory orders data in January also show a release from the slump. Banking on this optimism, investors may bet on three industrial mutual funds that not only boast strong fundamentals, but have also given solid returns over a long period of time. These funds possess a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy), have positive year-to-date and 5-year annualized returns, minimum initial investments within $5000 and carry a low expense ratio. Fidelity Select Industrials Portfolio No Load (MUTF: FCYIX ) invests the majority of its assets in securities of companies primarily involved in the research, development, manufacture, distribution, supply or sale of industrial products, services or equipment. The fund’s year-to-date and 5-year annualized returns are 2.9% and 10.1%, respectively. It carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2, and the annual expense ratio of 0.78% is lower than the category average of 1.33%. Fidelity Select Industrial Equipment Portfolio No Load (MUTF: FSCGX ) invests a major portion of its assets in securities of companies principally engaged in the manufacture, distribution or servicing of products and equipment for the industrial sector. The fund’s year-to-date and 5-year annualized returns are 2.9% and 8.3%, respectively. FSCGX carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1, and its annual expense ratio of 0.77% is lower than the category average of 1.33%. Putnam Global Industrial Fund A (MUTF: PGIAX ) invests a large portion of its assets in securities of companies in the industrial products, services or equipment industries. Even though it invests in large and mid-sized companies worldwide, around 80% of its investments are in the U.S. PGIAX’s year-to-date and 5-year annualized returns are 2.2% and 8.8%, respectively. The fund carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1, and its annual expense ratio of 1.27% is lower than the category average of 1.33%. Original Post

FirstEnergy (FE) Charles E. Jones on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Operator Greetings and welcome to the FirstEnergy Corp. Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Meghan Beringer, Director of Investor Relations for FirstEnergy Corp. Thank you. You may begin. Meghan Geiger Beringer – Director-Investor Relations Thank you, Adam, and good morning. Welcome to FirstEnergy’s fourth quarter earnings call. We will make various forward-looking statements today regarding revenues, earnings, performance, strategies and prospects. These statements are based on current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such statements can be found on the Investor section of our website under the Earnings Information link and in our SEC filings. We will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are also available on our website. Please note that on the Investor Relations page of our website we have also included a slide presentation that will follow this morning’s discussions. Participating in today’s call are Chuck Jones, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Pearson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Leila Vespoli, Executive Vice President, Markets and Chief Legal Officer; Donnie Schneider, President of FirstEnergy Solutions; Jon Taylor, Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer; Steve Staub, Vice President and Treasurer and Irene Prezelj, Vice President, Investor Relations. Now I’d like to turn the call over to Chuck Jones. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Thanks, Meghan. Good morning, everyone. I’m glad you’re able to join us. I’m excited to share the results from an important and productive year for FirstEnergy. In 2015 we made tremendous progress on major initiatives across our company. We put a number of obstacles behind us and completed critical work necessary to implement our regulated growth strategy going forward. At the same time, we consistently met our financial commitments to you. Last night we reported operating earnings of $0.58 per share for the fourth quarter and $2.71 per share for the year. These results, which reflect improved operations at our Competitive business, as well as growth in our Transmission business are above our initial guidance range for 2015, and in line with the revised estimates that we provided during our third quarter call despite the mild weather we experienced in the fourth quarter. For the first quarter of 2016, we have provided operating earnings guidance of $0.75 to $0.85 per share. As we will discuss later, we intend to provide additional guidance once we have an outcome in our Ohio Electric Security Plan. Before we move to Jim’s financial review, I’ll take a few minutes to discuss the key events from 2015. First, we removed regulatory uncertainty and important steps to position our regulated utilities for growth with the conclusion of rate cases in West Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Resolving these cases allows us to plan for additional infrastructure and reliability investments at those utilities. In Pennsylvania, we took that next step by filing Long Term Infrastructure Improvement Plans for each of our four operating companies in October. These plans, which were approved by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission last week, outline a projected increase in capital investment of nearly $245 million over five years to help strengthen, upgrade and modernize our Pennsylvania distribution systems. Yesterday, we filed for approval to implement a distribution system improvement charge at each of the four operating companies, which will allow us to recover quarterly costs associated with the capital projects approved in the LTIIPs. In Ohio, we achieved an important milestone for our latest Electric Security Plan by reaching a settlement agreement with the staff of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio and 16 other parties, including EnerNOC, an energy management solutions provider, Ohio Partners for Affordable Energy, a low income customer advocacy group, and IGS Energy, an independent energy supplier. The agreement outlines the ambitious steps to safeguard Ohio customers against retail price increases and volatility in future years, deploy new energy efficiency programs, and provide a clear path to a cleaner energy future by reducing carbon emissions. Our settlement includes an eight-year retail rate stability rider associated with the proposed Purchased Power Agreement. This provision will help protect customers against rising retail prices and market volatility while helping preserve vital base load power plants that serve Ohio customers and provide thousands of jobs in the state. The PPA includes the Sammis Plant in Stratton, Ohio, the Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station in Oak Harbor, Ohio, which recently received approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a 20-year license extension, and a portion of the output of two OVEC plants. The procedural schedule for our Ohio case is nearly complete, with hearings concluded, initial briefs filed, and reply briefs due next Friday. A decision from the PUCO is expected in March. Clearly, there is a lot of talk about the PPA as all interested parties seek to have their voices heard. We firmly believe that our plan serves the best interests of Ohio customers and Ohio communities while supporting competitive markets in the state and PJM. This generation will continue to be offered into PJM’s energy and capacity markets, and the PPA will have no impact on our standard service offer or customers’ ability to shop for their retail electric supply. In fact, we expect that the output from these plants will be treated no differently than the 20% of regulated generation that currently clears in the PJM markets, and that 20% does not include imports into PJM, which from MISO would be primarily regulated generation. I’m sure you’ll have lots of questions about the legal and regulatory process, and Leila’s standing by to share our perspective during the Q&A. We believe our plan is the right one for Ohio, and we remain very optimistic in the outcome, both in Ohio and at FERC. Let’s turn to our Transmission business. We just passed the halfway point of the first phase of our Energizing the Future, transmission investment initiative to meet the reliability needs of our customers and communities. We remain on track to meet our target of $4.2 billion in spending during the 2014 through 2017 timeframe. Consistent with our plan, we spent $2.4 billion in 2014 and 2015, including $986 million last year, on projects to address service reliability, grid modernization and growth. We completed major initiatives to address last year’s Northeast Ohio plant deactivations, and brought online critical new infrastructure to support midstream gas operations in our region. Work in 2016 is expected to include $1 billion in investments on projects such as synchronous condensers at our Eastlake Plant, new line construction projects in West Virginia and New Jersey, Static Var Compensator projects in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and West Virginia, and several new substations, line rebuilds and reconductoring projects. While expansion in the shale markets has cooled, we expect investments over the next several years of about $150 million for work that is already in the pipeline. We also addressed several matters in 2015 that support future investment in this important long-term growth platform. During the fourth quarter, FERC approved our settlement for a forward-looking formula rate structure at our ATSI subsidiary which permits more timely recovery of our investments. In addition, in June we filed to create a new subsidiary named Mid-Atlantic Interstate Transmission, or MAIT. This subsidiary would hold the transmission assets of Met-Ed, Penelec and JCP&L and facilitate new investments that can improve service reliability for those customers. Our proposal is on FERC’s agenda for tomorrow and we are seeking approval from both the Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission and the New Jersey Bureau of Public Utilities by the middle of the year. These structural changes are important steps to ensure timely recovery of our investments and set the stage for continued growth through our Energizing the Future transmission initiative. Turning to our Competitive operations, the PJM capacity market reforms approved by FERC have already begun to have a positive impact on the capacity auction process, although the markets continue to fall well short of being compensatory for long-lived capital assets like base load generation units. Our revised competitive strategy, focusing on stabilizing the business by reducing risk, also produced positive results. In 2015, we sold 75 million megawatt-hours while significantly reducing our exposure to weather-sensitive load and executing a rigorous commitment to economically dispatching our units. As a result, we mitigated the impact of severe weather in the first quarter of 2015 and achieved adjusted EBITDA of $949 million. This is in line with the revised guidance that we provided in October and reflects solid operational results as well as the impact of our Cash Flow Improvement Project. We are holding off on providing adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2017 and 2018 until our Analyst Meeting following the PUCO decision in Ohio. However, we are reaffirming both our 2016 adjusted EBITDA guidance range for the Competitive business of $950 million to $1.05 billion, and our expectation that the business will be cash flow positive each year through at least 2018. Before I move from our Competitive segment, I’ll mention that given the significant decline in the global coal market, we impaired our investment in the Signal Peak mine, resulting in a $362 million pre-tax noncash charge, which Jim will cover in more detail. Finally, I’ll spend a few moments discussing our Cash Flow Improvement Plan and other financial matters. We took a very important step to improve our financial metrics and balance sheet in 2015 through the launch of the Cash Flow Improvement Project. This initiative began in the spring, with a goal to capture meaningful and sustainable savings opportunities and process improvements across the company while continuing to fully meet the needs of our customers, our organization and our employees. I’m very pleased with the results of this effort to-date. We are on track to capture $155 million in savings this year and $240 million annually by 2017, up from our initial goal of $200 million over the timeframe. The results from this initiative will allow us to essentially hold our O&M flat through 2017. We put a lot of risk behind us in 2015, including key initiatives that provide our company with greater strength and flexibility as we pursue our regulated growth plans. I’m also gratified by the response from the rating agencies. In December, citing our shift in strategy and more credit friendly business risk profile, Fitch revised its outlook from stable to positive. Days later, Moody’s affirmed its Baa3 rating with a stable outlook for FirstEnergy Corp., FES and Allegheny Energy Supply, citing our Ohio ESP settlement. Over the past year, I’ve gotten to know many of you and I’ve shared my leadership philosophy, including my commitment to make our company more transparent. I hope you’ve seen that in action over the past year. I’ve told you one of our primary objectives is to improve the quality of our earnings. This year, two significant noncash adjustments got in the way. The annual mark-to-market for pension and OPEB will remain an annual adjustment, either up or down, and the impairment of the Signal Peak coal mine is required, given the current market for coal and the fact that this isn’t a core asset for us. Outside of these two items, earnings quality in 2015 was very solid, and is supported with operational cash flows that showed a $700 million improvement over 2014. We are making solid progress, and once we have an outcome in our Ohio ESP, we should be in a position to provide 2016 full-year earnings expectations and shed more light on the next couple of years, including our regulated growth projections and any future equity needs to support our growth initiatives. It remains our priority to continue strengthening our balance sheet and further de-risk our Competitive business. These steps will help ensure we are well positioned to pursue the next period of regulated growth and success, benefiting our 6 million customers and the local economies we serve, our investors and our employees. Now I’ll turn the call over to Jim for a brief review of the quarter. As always, we reserved plenty of time for your questions before the end of the hour. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Thanks, Chuck, and good morning, everyone. As always, I will remind you that detailed information about the quarter can be found in the consolidated report that was posted to our website yesterday evening. We also welcome your questions during the Q&A or following the call. Our fourth quarter operating earnings of $0.58 per share compares to $0.80 per share in the fourth quarter of 2014. On a GAAP basis, we recorded a loss of $0.53 per share for the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to a loss of $0.73 per share during the same period last year. 2015 fourth quarter GAAP results include special items totaling $1.11 per share. I’ll spend a few moments on two of those items before moving to the review of operating results. The first of these is the impairment charge related to our investment in the Signal Peak mine. As Chuck mentioned earlier on the call, given the weak market for coal globally, in the fourth quarter we wrote off our investment in Global Holding, the parent company of Signal Peak, resulting in a noncash pre-tax charge of $362 million or $0.56 per share, which reduced the value of this investment to zero. As some of you may remember, back in 2011, FirstEnergy sold a portion of its ownership interest in Signal Peak, receiving $258 million in cash proceeds and recognizing a $370 million after-tax gain which included a sizeable step-up in the one-third interest we retained. Presently, the mine remains operational and FirstEnergy continues to provide a full guarantee on Global Holding’s $300 million term loan. Since this investment is no longer a strategic fit for FirstEnergy, we have moved the earnings associated with Signal Peak from our Competitive segment to Corporate/Other for all periods. The second special item is the $0.35 per share annual pension and OPEB mark-to-market adjustment, another noncash item. As discussed in our third quarter call, we anticipated this charge given the plan’s investment performance, which was partially offset by a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate. I will note that for 2016 we have $381 million in required minimum pension funding, with $160 million already contributed to the plan last month. Let’s spend some time walking through the fourth quarter drivers by business units, followed by a brief review of the full year. In our Distribution business total deliveries decreased 6% in the quarter or 2% on a weather-adjusted basis. Residential sales decreased 10.6% and commercial sales decreased 3.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. Our region saw the mildest fourth quarter temperatures in at least 35 years, with heating degree days that were nearly 30% below both last year and normal. The decrease in customer use also reflects the adoption of energy efficient lighting and the impact of other energy efficiency measures. We continue to analyze these efficiency trends and we plan to discuss the expected impact on our load forecast over the next few years when we hold our Analyst Meeting. Sales to industrial customers decreased 3.9% in the quarter as a result of lower usage from our steel, mining, chemical, electrical equipment and manufacturing customers, partially offset by increased usage from the shale gas and automotive sectors. Distribution results were also impacted by higher operating expenses, which included planned reliability spend in the quarter, primarily at JCP&L. In our Transmission business fourth quarter operating earnings increased as a result of higher revenue associated with a higher rate base and ATSI’s forward-looking rate structure, which became effective in January 2015, partially offset by a lower return on equity at ATSI as part of its comprehensive settlement that was approved by FERC in October. In our Competitive business, we recorded strong fourth quarter operating earnings as higher commodity margin was offset with higher operating expenses. The impact of lower contract sales was offset by higher capacity revenues, lower purchased power, fuel and transmission expenses, and increased sales to the wholesale market, reflecting our more open position. Operating costs for the Competitive business were higher in the fourth quarter of 2015, primarily due to expenses related to the nuclear refueling outage at Beaver Valley Unit 2. Finally, at Corporate, a higher effective income tax rate and higher interest and operating expenses reduced operating earnings by $0.08, in line with our expectations. Now I’ll take a couple of minutes to discuss full year results and review the key earnings drivers for 2015. Operating earnings were $2.71 per share compared to $2.56 in 2014. GAAP earnings were $1.37 per share in 2015 compared to $0.71 in the prior year. At our Regulated Distribution utilities, 2015 operating earnings were in line with our guidance. The net benefit of resolved rate cases and generally favorable weather was offset primarily by higher operating expenses associated with planned reliability maintenance. Total distribution deliveries decreased about 1% compared to 2014. In the Industrial segment sales declined primarily due to decreased steel and mining production. Sales to residential and commercial customers were essentially flat compared to the prior year. In the Regulated Transmission segment, operating earnings increased primarily as a result of a higher rate base and a forward-looking rate structure at ATSI in the company’s Regulated Transmission business. In our Competitive business, operating earnings increased significantly, primarily due to improved commodity margin related to higher capacity prices. Adjusted EBITDA was $949 million in line with our expectations. You’ll recall that we began the effort to reposition our sales portfolio in the second quarter of 2014. Our total retail customer count at the end of 2015 was 1.6 million, a decrease of 445,000 customers from December 31, 2014. We sold about 75 million megawatt hours in 2015, including 68 million megawatt hours of contract sales and an additional 7 million megawatt hours of wholesale. We currently have about 61 million megawatt hours committed for 2016 and for 2017 about 38 million megawatt hours are committed, or about half of our expected generation resources. The Ohio PPA would add approximately 23 million megawatt hours on an annual basis, which would essentially close our sales positions through the first half of 2017. In the Corporate segment, 2015 operating earnings were consistent with our guidance, reflecting higher interest and operating expenses as well as a more normal effective income tax rate. 2015 should be recognized as a pivotal year for our company. We were able to raise the operating earnings guidance that we provided, reduce risk and build a solid platform for regulated growth. We’re confident that our efforts will help us reach our goal of creating long-term value for FirstEnergy shareholders. Now I’d like to open the call up for your questions. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Hi. Good morning. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC I wanted to discuss transmission spending opportunities. In your fact book I think it’s slide 45, you talk about a review of the reliability in your ATSI system. And maybe that should be phrased more broadly, but just wanted to check-in in terms of as you assess transmission needs, replacement of 69-kV lines, 138-kV lines, what is your sense in terms of the potential for additional spending to enhance reliability in transmission in particular? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, Stephen, we’ve talked about this a little bit in the past. Our team has identified in excess of $15 billion worth of projects that we could execute, all on our existing 24,000 miles of transmission lines. And that’s our focus. And what we do with those projects is we prioritize them in the best way to drive benefits for customers. And my view is the best investments we can make are the ones that customers are willing to pay for and that you all are willing to invest in. So the opportunity is there for us to make these kind of investments for a long time; the ability to add on an annual basis to that is a little bit challenged by the availability of a transmission construction work force in our country. So I wouldn’t expect that you would see a huge increase on an annual basis, but you could extrapolate out quite a bit into the future how long we can continue to execute this program. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC That’s very helpful. That makes sense. And wanted to shift over to the Ohio PPA discussions. I’m sure there will be many questions on this. At the FERC level, I guess comments are due February 23 or thereabouts, and I know this is obviously not your preferred outcome, but if the FERC case were to go in opposition to the PPAs, could you talk a little bit about what the implications might be, understanding again that that’s not your preferred outcome? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Oh hi, Stephen. This is Leila. So I don’t think it would be the likely outcome either, but – so let me spend a couple of seconds just kind of recount for the group what that would have actually entailed to get to that place. So right now we have an affiliate waiver and the basis upon which it was granted, those items have not changed. If you think about it, Ohio still, the customers are not captive. They can shop. There hasn’t been a law change. That means that the Ohio Commission is still in order to approve the PPA would have to find that the ESP is better than the MRO. They would still be protecting customers. So if you look at those kind of things, again I don’t think that it’s something that the FERC should rescind, if you would. But if they were to do that, what would happen – they would likely apply the Edgar rule. So you could look at the different provisions of how they look at that. There’s several ways to comply with the Edgar rule and one of them looks at non-price terms and conditions. So we would be looking at a hearing dealing with our PPA, and I think there are a lot of things that could be said around the non-term price and conditions that would allow the pricing to stand as well. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Understood. Thank you very much. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gregg Orrill from Barclays. Please go ahead. Gregg Gillander Orrill – Barclays Capital, Inc. Yeah. Thank you. Two questions. The first one is regarding the Competitive business guidance for 2016. And I guess it was the same as it was in the third quarter look, despite the fact that wholesale power prices are down. Could you talk about what the drivers there were? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. Sure, Gregg. This is Donnie. If you take a look at our slide 104 of the fact book you can see the EBITDA guidance. And as you clearly indicated, the fall-off in prices, we reflected that in our open position. We’re down about $3 there. But we’ve also lowered our costs, especially our fossil fuel. We went back and took another hard look at some of the things we’d done in CFIP. We were able to lower that. Net of those two things, the lower revenue from the decline in the open position, net of what we’ve been able to do on the cost side, our commodity margin’s only down about $15 million, which is well in the range of our EBITDA. Gregg Gillander Orrill – Barclays Capital, Inc. Okay, thanks. And then regarding the equity needs, can you talk about your thoughts there in light of some of the write-offs and funding needs that you have? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, I’ve said pretty consistently that we have set a goal of strengthening our balance sheet and getting to where we need to get with the rating agencies without having to use any equity to do that. And I just don’t believe that that is the intent of shareholder equity. We’ve worked very hard this past year. I talked about the results of CFIP. We’ve also made improvements in other parts of our operation, and then we’ve got the entire Ohio ESP to get a resolution on before I think we’re in any position to talk about what future equity needs might be. We talked about $245 million of incremental investment in Pennsylvania distribution. Under the Ohio ESP there’s an extension of the DCR rider plus potential opportunities to invest in increasing the smart distribution network in Ohio. Along with transmission with ATSI, transmission with MAIT, what we need to do and what we plan to do is communicate to you what type of regulated growth rate we’re going to strive for going forward, once we have these last remaining questions done. And then any equity needs are going to be driven off of that. They are not going to be driven off of a need for equity to deal with any of the financial issues that we’ve been trying to wrestle to the ground this last year. They will only be used for growth, and that’s our intent. Gregg Gillander Orrill – Barclays Capital, Inc. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon from KeyBanc. Please go ahead. Paul T. Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. What’s your current thinking around when the Ohio Commission will rule, and kind of what’s your outlook for potential that – that schedule getting delayed? And if it were delayed beyond the PJM auction, how would it impact your bidding behavior? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, as I said in my comments, we’re expecting an answer from the Ohio Commission in March. And so I don’t think it’s going to affect our bidding behavior one way or another. Our Competitive generating business bids in our Competitive fleet. We have regulated generation in West Virginia already that is bid by a regulated generation group. The two do not talk, as required by FERC’s Standards of Conduct. This generation will get bid in by one of those two groups, depending on which side of the fence it’s on. Paul T. Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Can you remind us what the original investment in Signal Peak was? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer We made an original cash contribution, about $150 million. Paul T. Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. And you sold a piece for what, you said $230 million? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Yes. That’s – we sold 50% of our interest and we had a cash proceeds of about $234 million. Paul T. Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Okay. Thank you very much. I’m good. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Eggers from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) Hey. Good morning, guys. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Hey, Dan. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) First question just on – a couple of cash flow questions for you guys, first off. How should we think about bonus depreciation affecting kind of the cash flows coming back in? And how does that get treated at the different utilities/transmission assets as far as adjusting rate base? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Dan, this is Jim. Bonus depreciation, we were already in a large NOL position through the 2018 and 2019 period, so this is just going to extend that beyond 2021. Obviously these years will change somewhat with the approval of the PPA scenario. On the earnings side, it’s really a modest impact from a rate base reduction. We’ll see a little bit on the transmission side and certain of our other jurisdictions that have formula like rate recovery such as the DCR in Ohio. But I would say the impact to our earnings rate base is going to be minimal. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) So should we assume – what kind of cash tax rate are you guys assuming through 2021? Are you at an AMT or sub-AMT level then? K. Jon Taylor – Chief Accounting Officer, VP & Controller Hey, Dan. This is Jon Taylor. We’re at the AMT level. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) Okay. Got it. And then I guess on the pension side, did I read it correctly from the last quarter slides, this quarter slides, that your pension expenses are up about $55 million in 2016 versus 2015 on a pre-tax basis? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Yeah, Dan. Two things that are driving that; first is we had a 25 basis point decrease in the return on assets. So we took that down from 7.75% to 7.5%. And then we also saw a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate, which would increase our interest costs. So the two of those was about $50 million. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) Okay. Got it. And I guess if we look at the kind of, from the K, the five-year funding plans or obligations for pension are up about $600 million through the five-year running period from last K to this K. Do you guys see any funding obligations around that? Or is it – because this is kind of beyond 2016 we’ll wait and see what happens in the interest rate environment between here and there? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Dan, what we have out there, and you’re right, our five-year required contributions are about $500 million higher than what the five-year required contributions were in the 2014 10-K. Our actuary Aon, they recalibrate that annually. And at this point these are fundings that we would be required to make. As we said, we have a $381 million contribution required in 2016. We’ve already made $160 million in January. 2017, we have a $439 million pension contribution. That’s down somewhat from where we were in the 2014 10-K where we had $555 million, but again that’s associated with our actuary recalibrating when our payments are required and some of those payments were moved out to a future year. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) Okay. Thank you. And I guess just last one on the ESP side in Ohio. Does it become a friction point where you have to have a decision in order to implement rates before ESP3 goes away? And how much time or how much cushion do you guys need between PUCO making a decision and you guys being ready to implement? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer So, yes. So it does become that point, but I think it’s going to be a moot question because I fully expect the Commission to act in March. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) So a decision in March gives you plenty of time. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Correct. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) Okay. Very good. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Please go ahead. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Yeah. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Yeah. We can here you. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Excellent. So let me just follow up on what Dan was asking there. First, on the bonus depreciation point, can you elaborate a little bit more on the earnings impact rather than the cash flow? And think about what it does separately to the Transmission and the Distribution side as you think about perhaps the next round of rate case and/or FERC filing? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer At this point, Julien, I would say that the impact on each of the segments would just be pennies. It would not be material at all. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Got it. Could you elaborate why that would be, just be clear, just as you think about? Is that principally because you haven’t filed, or you don’t necessary have a meaningful distribution case contemplated? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Yeah. At this point on the Distribution side, it would only impact the utilities that we have formula-like rates considering the DCR in Ohio. We have rates that are in effect in all of our other jurisdictions will likely be looking to go in for rates in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, but that will not be – we won’t see changes to our rates probably until the 2017 timeframe at this point, but we’ll give you more clarification on that when we have our Analyst Day Meeting. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC And just to clarify Analyst Day expectations, if there is indeed an issue at FERC, I suppose a, you would expect to host your Analyst Day would be in terms of providing guidance, should we continue to expect EBITDA guidance kind of status quo as you laid out? If the 206 is successful. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Yes. Well, I think here’s where we’re at. We’re going to wait till we get the outcome in Ohio. Once we have that then we’re going to give you a little clearer guidelines on what we’re expecting in terms of our Analyst Meeting. One way or another we’re going to be giving you guidance for 2016 that includes the ESP or doesn’t include the ESP based on where we’re at, at that point in time. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Got it. And then lastly on the Signal Peak assets, what’s the situation in terms of the servicing the debt, just the guarantee there? If you can just elaborate in terms of the assets itself? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Okay, Julien. This is Jim. From servicing the debt, the mine continues to service that debt. The only time that we would have a change there is if we become more of a full-time owner of the mine if we would have control of over 50% of that. The first step we would have to do is likely consolidate that debt on to our balance sheet. Right now it’s not consolidated because we’re only a 33% owner. And then ultimately if there was a capital call that the other owners were not able to fulfill that would also likely require us to make that capital call. At the end, of that $300 million, $100 million is purely ours because we own a 33% interest in that and once we understand fully what happens to the mine, if it would happen to shut down then we would be responsible to fill that obligation to the banks. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC The balance of the obligation. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer That’s correct. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Great. Thank you so much. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Good morning. How are you? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Just on, a quick question here. In terms of the PPA associated generation, how much of that if you could remind me, cleared in the 2018/2019 auction? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. This is Donny, Paul. So Sammis and Beaver Valley it all cleared in the 2018/2019 auction. I’m sorry, Sammis and Davis-Besse, it all cleared in the 2018/2019 auction. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. And then you guys brought up sort of an interesting issue here in terms of how your generation in the PPA would be similar to regulated generation, et cetera. And I don’t recall when the Harrison Plant acquisition by the regulated affiliate in Virginia was – or West Virginia, excuse me, was being purchased, this much of an issue in terms of opposition, et cetera, from generators, et cetera. Why do you think in this case it’s being so much more of an issue than it would be in the Harrison case when it sounds to me, and correct me if I’m wrong, the economics would kind of be similar in terms of the impact on the market? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director I am at a complete loss for why it is such a big issue for others, because I do think it is financially the same as what happened with Harrison. These units will no longer supply retail load. They will no longer supply polar load. They are not going to influence the competitive market in any way. So I’m at a complete loss for why it has generated such adamant opposition other than potentially misery loves company. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer And if I could add on just a little bit to that. So if you think about the parade of horribles that EPSA and others highlighted in their complaint to FERC, they talked about if you let these generating units look regulated, have in effect what they called an out of market subsidy, that would crash the marketplace. Well, if you think about PJM, as Chuck alluded to earlier, 20% of PJM is already regulated. And that doesn’t even include the FRR entities. And if you think about what they were talking about, the bidding aspect of this, it’s public information that prior to capacity performance three-quarters, so 75% of the megawatts in the PJM capacity auctions bid at zero. So they bid at price takers. And after CP it was about roughly half. But if you think about it with the new penalty, that what you associated with that penalty should kind of be your new zero. So I would suggest that the new price takers is actually even higher than 50%. So what that would suggest is some of the generators who actually filed this and complained so loudly saying that it was going to crash the market, they themselves actually bid into the capacity market at zero. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. Fair enough. And then just on the… James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Hey, Paul, and just to be clear on the capacity, I said it all cleared. In actuality when you look at our fact book on slide 119, you’d see that there were 525-megawatts in ATSI that did not clear. And… Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC I’m sorry. Go ahead. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer A slice of that may be at Sammis and Davis-Besse, but essentially it all cleared. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC What do you – why would a slice of it not (44:20), I guess? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Well, to the degree we bid all of our units on a curve, there could be a slice that didn’t clear. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. That would be Sammis and Davis-Besse? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Yeah, generally we bid all of our units on a curve, Paul. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. But I mean I guess what I’m wondering, though, is that of the PPA-affiliated plants, some of it may have cleared and some of it may not have cleared. Is that correct? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer It would not look any different than the rest of our unregulated plants, Paul. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. Just to get back to Julien’s question on the – just to make sure I understand on the Global Holding guarantee, the $300 million. It wasn’t clear to me exactly how much on the hook you guys are if the Signal Peak mine becomes uneconomic or unable to – and you don’t get the capital calls from third parties. How much would be the total risk that you guys may or may not have? I’m just – it wasn’t clear completely. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer The total amount would be $300 million, less any types of proceeds that we could get from the sale of the mine. So if we cannot sell the mine for anything, the maximum would be $300 million. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Assuming that there is some value to the mine, we would be able to use those proceeds to reduce that amount of exposure. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Great. Thanks so much. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Hey. Good morning. Just two quick questions I guess on the PPA is first, do you think FERC rules before the May PJM auction? And second, you had mentioned the waiver earlier, that you have a waiver between your utility and competitive generation. Is the waiver unique to a particular PPA or is it I guess for any PPA that goes between your utility and competitive businesses? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer This is Leila. So it covers all the transactions between the utilities and the affiliates. And again, the basis upon which it was granted, the circumstances haven’t changed. The Commission still retains the ability to protect customers. And I apologize, I forgot your first question? Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Just do you think FERC rules before the auction in May? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Oh, whether it will rule, I’m sorry. Yes. Nothing’s carved in stone and they don’t have to. EPSA asked for expedited treatment, but most people believe that they will act before the auction and probably act on the filed paper as opposed to holding a hearing. That would be my best guess. Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Just quickly then, has FERC ever reversed policy and revoked a waiver? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer I don’t know the entire history, but I could tell you what FERC has done with regard to captive customers and shopping. FERC on several occasions has been asked to kind of look behind the curtain and opine whether a state’s particular flavor of retail choice is what they would agree with or not. And FERC has consistently said no, as long as they’re not captive customers, as long as they can shop, then we’re not going to try and second guess what commissions do. Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Please go ahead. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Thanks. Hi, guys. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Hi. Sorry to go on the PPA question again, but I’m just trying to understand the other side. And I know this is clearly not the preferred path, but if the PPA does get cancelled for whichever partner or how it gets cancelled, I’m just trying to paint a picture first from an equity needs perspective and also from a strategic fit perspective. As in, if you do see the PPA getting cancelled, is there any view on how the equity need requirement changes, especially to support the credit? And secondly, strategically do you see this business as still a fit within FE? Or do you look to do an exit in some form at some point? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, first off we have not communicated any earnings guidance for full year 2016, whether the PPA gets done or not, and I’m not going to do that here this morning. What I’ve said is we will deal with that outcome when we have it, and we will communicate at that time what our earnings guidance for 2016 is, what our future growth plans for the utilities are, what our future equity needs might be, if anything, to support that growth. So I think you’re just going to have to be patient and wait for the outcome, and then we’ll tell you where we’re at at that point in time. And beyond that I’ve consistently said I think that Generation, Transmission and Distribution are all critical assets in terms of serving customers. And right now I don’t see any strategic change there for us. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Fair enough. And on the second question, if I look at the generation of the Competitive business and I look at the… Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director And I would remind you that in my remarks I told you that this business is generating positive EBITDA, positive cash flow through 2018 without any benefit from the Energy Security Plan. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Gotcha. And that’s a great lead-in actually to my second question which is, as I think about that positive free cash flow, I guess an important part of that is just the different channels that you sell your generation through. And LCI looks like an important piece of that puzzle. The range that you generally provide for LCI is in the zero to 20-terawatt hours of sales in that LCI direct. 2017 looks like it’s just at 5 terawatt hours right now. And clearly it’s early days and you’re waiting for the PPA. But is there – the reason why I’m focused on it is, the LCI price versus the spot price, there’s like almost a $20 per megawatt hour difference. So I’m just trying to put a lower bound on that LCI sale, as in, at a minimum what level do you see achieving at LCI or LCI channel sales in the 2016/2017 timeframe? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. So this is Donny. I think actually if you look at slide 104 in the fact book it shows LCI, MCI and mass market we’ve got 16.4 terawatt hours closed already for 2016 delivery. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) No, I’m looking at 2017 and LCI for 2017 is 5 terawatt hours which is what I’m looking at. Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. Oh, yeah sure. Yeah. We’ve got a ways to go there. LCI customers generally are shorter terms contracts compared to government aggregation for example. So it would not be unusual to be able to close 10 terawatt hours or 15 terawatt hours in a year prior to the delivery year. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Got you. And do you expect those prices to be at similar levels to where you currently cleared which is around $54 per megawatt hour, $55 per megawatt hour? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. That’s more difficult to say, because what you got to keep in mind embedded in that price is the price of capacity. So a customer in ATSI in the 2015/2016 timeframe is going to look different than a RTO customer and that’s going to look different than a customer in the 2017/2018 timeframe. So it’s very hard for us to say kind of what price we would end up locking those in at. What I would tell you is we would have consistent margins. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Got you. That’s very helpful. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Charles Fishman from Morningstar. Please go ahead. Charles Fishman – Morningstar Research Good morning. This will be quick I think. In comparing the fact sheets, it looks like the transmission spend you’re projecting a little up for 2016, lower in 2017. But nothing has changed with respect to Energizing the Future. I mean the overall project is pretty much on track from the way you initially set it up a couple of years ago, correct? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director That’s correct. Charles Fishman – Morningstar Research That’s the only question I had. Thank you. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director All right. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Okay, well there are no more questions in the queue. I’d just like to thank you all for your continued support. I look forward to getting our answer from Ohio here in a few weeks and then look forward to meeting you all face to face at the Analyst Meeting following that. Thank you. Operator Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude our teleconference for today. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) So our reproduction policy is as follows: You may quote up to 400 words of any transcript on the condition that you attribute the transcript to Seeking Alpha and either link to the original transcript or to www.SeekingAlpha.com. All other use is prohibited. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HERE IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE APPLICABLE COMPANY’S CONFERENCE CALL, CONFERENCE PRESENTATION OR OTHER AUDIO PRESENTATION, AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE AUDIO PRESENTATIONS. IN NO WAY DOES SEEKING ALPHA ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS WEB SITE OR IN ANY TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE APPLICABLE COMPANY’S AUDIO PRESENTATION ITSELF AND THE APPLICABLE COMPANY’S SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS. If you have any additional questions about our online transcripts, please contact us at: transcripts@seekingalpha.com . Thank you!