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SCANA (SCG) Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Operator Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. I will be your conference facilitator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the SCANA Corporation Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded on Thursday, February 18, 2016. Anyone who does not consent to the taping may drop off the line. At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Susan Wright, Director of Financial Planning and Investor Relations. Susan Wright Thank you, and welcome to our analyst call. As you know, earlier today, we announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2015. Joining us on the call today are Jimmy Addison, SCANA’s Chief Financial Officer and Steve Byrne, Chief Operating Officer of SCE&G. During the call, Jimmy will provide an overview of our financial results and Steve will provide an update of our new nuclear project. After our comments, we will respond to your questions. The slides and the earnings release referenced to in this call are available at scana.com. Additionally, we post information related to our new nuclear project and other investor information directly to our Web site at scana.com. On SCANA’s homepage, there is a yellow box containing links to the new nuclear development and other Investor Information sections of the Web site. It is possible that some of the information that we will be posting from time-to-time may be deemed material information that has not otherwise become public. You can sign-up for e-mail alerts under the Investors section of scana.com to notify you when there is a new posting in the nuclear development and/or other Investor Information sections of the Web site. Finally, before I turn the call over to Jimmy, I would like to remind you that certain statements that may be made during today’s call are considered forward-looking statements and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties as shown on Slide 2. The Company does not recognize an obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Additionally, we may disclose certain non-GAAP measures during this presentation and the required Reg G information can be found in the Investor Relations section of our Web site under Webcasts & Presentations. I’ll now turn the call over to Jimmy. Jimmy Addison Thanks, Susan, and thank you all for joining us today. I’ll begin our earnings discussion on Slide 3. GAAP earnings in the fourth quarter of 2015 were $0.69 per share compared to $0.73 per share in the same quarter of 2014. The decrease in earnings in the fourth quarter is mainly attributable to the negative impact of weather on electric margins, as well as on gas margins in our Georgia business. Lower gas margins also reflect $0.07 per share of lost margins due to the sale of CGT early in the year. These losses were partially offset by higher electric margins, due primarily to a Base Load Review Act rate increase and customer growth, as well as lower depreciation expense as a result of a new depreciation study. And lower O&M expense due primarily to labor savings and the impact of the sales of CGT during the first quarter of 2015. Note, too, that abnormal weather decreased electric margins by $0.14 per share and $0.02 per share versus normal in the fourth quarters of 2015 and 2014, respectively. Please turn to Slide 4. Earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2015 were $5.22 versus $3.79 in 2014. The improved results are mainly attributable to the net of tax gains on the sales of CGT and SCI, higher electric margins due primarily to a Base Load Review Act rate increase and customer growth, as well as lower depreciation expense and O&M, as described earlier. These were partially offset by lower electric margins due to weather, lower gas margins — primarily due to lost gas margins of $0.23 per share resulting from the sale of CGT and the impact of abnormal weather on the Georgia business. And normal increases in CapEx related items, including interest, property taxes and share dilution. Although electric margins reflected a negative $0.13 per share due to weather year over year, abnormal weather increased electric margins in both years, accounting for $0.08 per share in 2015 compared to $0.21 in 2014. Slide 5 shows earnings on a GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized basis. Earnings in the fourth quarter of 2015 were $0.83 per share compared to $0.75 per share in the same quarter of 2014. Full-year earnings were $3.73 per share in 2015 compared to $3.58 per share in the prior year. As a reminder, GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized EPS excludes the impact of abnormal weather on electric margins, and the net of tax gains on the sales of CGT and SCI from the first quarter of 2015. Abnormal weather on gas margins is not adjusted in this measure, as gas margins are weather-normalized for the North and South Carolina businesses. And the direct impact of abnormal weather on the Georgia business is generally insignificant. However, the extremely mild weather in the fourth quarter of 2015 was seen in that business as standalone results, as I’ll discuss later. Now on Slide 6, I’d like to briefly review results for our principal lines of business. On a GAAP basis, South Carolina Electric & Gas Company’s fourth-quarter 2015 earnings were down $0.01 per share compared to the same period of 2014. The decrease in earnings is due to lower electric margins due to abnormal weather, and higher expenses related to our capital program, including interest expense and property taxes. These decreases more than offset increases due to the continued recovery of financing costs through the BLRA, customer growth in both the electric and gas businesses, the application of the previously mentioned new depreciation rates, and lower O&M due primarily to labor savings. For the full-year 2015, earnings were higher by $0.12 per share due to increased electric margins, primarily from the continued recovery of financing costs through the BLRA, and customer growth, improved gas margins due to customer growth, and the application of new depreciation rates. These items were partially offset by the effective abnormal weather on electric margins and higher expenses related to our capital program, including interest expense, property taxes, dilution, and continued increases in depreciation exclusive of the impact of the depreciation study. Although weather in both years contributed favorably to electric margins versus normal, 2015 was milder than 2014, with weather contributing $0.08 of margin versus normal in 2015 compared to $0.21 in 2014. PSNC Energy reported earnings of $0.17 per share in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to $0.16 per share in the same quarter of the prior year, primarily due to higher margins from customer growth. For the year ended December 2015, earnings are $0.38 per share compared to $0.39 per share in the prior year. SCANA Energy, our retail natural gas marketing business in Georgia, showed a decrease in fourth-quarter earnings of $0.06 per share in 2015 over the same quarter of last year. Primarily due to lower throughput and margins attributable to the extremely warm weather during the fourth quarter of 2015 as compared to 2014, partially offset by lower bad debt expense. For the 12 months ended December 31, 2015, earnings were down $0.05 per share compared to the same period of 2014, due to the same drivers as the quarter. On a GAAP basis, SCANA’s corporate and other businesses reported a loss of $0.01 per share in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to $0.03 in the comparative quarter of the prior year. Lower interest expense at the holding company and increased margins at our marketing business were primarily offset by foregone earnings contributions from the subsidiaries that were sold during the fourth quarter of this year. For the 12 month period, these businesses reported earnings per share of $1.36 in 2015 compared to $0.01 loss in 2014. Excluding the net of tax gains on the sales of CGT and SCI of $1.41 per share, GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized EPS was down $0.04 from the prior year, due primarily to foregone earnings from the sale of the businesses earlier this year. Offset by lower interest expense at the holding company and increased margins in our marketing business. I would now like to touch on economic trends in our service territory on Slide 7. In 2015, companies announced plans to invest over $2 billion with the expectation of creating over 6,000 jobs in our Carolinas territories. The Carolinas continue to be seen as a favorable business environment, and we’re pleased by the continuous growth in our service territories. At the bottom of the slide, you can see the national unemployment rate, along with the rates for the three states where SCANA has a presence, and the SCE&G electric territory. South Carolina’s unemployment rate is now at 5.5%, and the rate in SCE&G’s electric territory is estimated at 4.7%. At the top of Slide 8, you can see the South Carolina employment statistics as of December 2015 and 2014. Over the course of 2015, South Carolina’s unemployment rate has dropped over a percentage point from its level at the end of 2014. December of 2015 also marked all-time highs for the number of South Carolinians employed and in the labor force. Of particular interest, and attesting to our state’s strong economic growth, almost 80,000 or 3.8% more South Carolinians are working today than a year ago. Said another way, had the labor force not increased during 2015, the unemployment rate would be approximately 3%. The expansion of the labor force is simply evidence of the confidence of some of the workforce to re-enter the market, and the positive migration to the State of South Carolina. As depicted on the bottom of the slide, United Van Lines recently released its annual mover study for 2015, which tracks migration patterns state to state. For the third consecutive year, South Carolina finished ranked second in terms of domestic migration destinations, corroborating our realized customer growth statistics. North Carolina has also been ranked in the Top 5 for the last three years. Slide 9 presents customer growth and electric sales statistics. On the top half of the slide is the customer growth rate for each of our regulated businesses. SCE&G’s electric business added customers at a year-over-year rate of 1.5%. Our regulated gas businesses in North and South Carolina added customers at a rate of 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. We continue to see very strong customer growth in our businesses and in the region. The bottom table outlines our actual and weather-normalized kilowatt hour sales for the 12 months ended December 31, 2015. Overall, weather-normalized total retail sales are up 1.3% on a 12-month ended basis. In conjunction with the continued improvement of economic conditions in South Carolina, the past two quarters have shown an accelerating improvement in usage in the residential market. And now please turn to Slide 10, which recaps our regulator rate base and returns. The pie chart on the left presents the components of our regulated rate base of approximately $9.6 billion. As denoted in the two shades of blue, approximately 86% of this rate base is related to the electric business. In the block on the right, you will see SCE&G’s base electric business, in which we are allowed a 10.25% return on equity. The earned return for the 12 months ended December 31, 2015 in the base electric business is approximately 9.75%, meeting our stated goal of earning a return of 9% or higher to prevent the need for non-BLRA-related base rate increases during the peak nuclear construction years. We continue to be pleased with the execution of our strategy. As a reminder, we’re allowed a return on equity of 10.25% and 10.6% in our LDCs in South and North Carolina, respectively. In response to the normal attrition and the earned returns in our North Carolina business, yesterday PSNC notified the North Carolina Utilities Commission of its intention to file a rate case. We plan to file the detailed case within the next 60 days, where more clarity will be provided. As you will recall, in South Carolina, if the earned ROE of the gas business for the 12 months ending in March falls outside a range of 50 basis points above or below the allowed ROE, then we will file to adjust rates under the Rate Stabilization Act in June. Slide 11 presents our CapEx forecast. This forecast reflects the Company’s current estimate of New Nuclear spending through 2018, and has been updated to reflect what was filed in our quarterly BLRA report, which also reflects the amended EPC that was announced in October 2015. At the bottom of the slide, we recap the estimated New Nuclear CWIP from July 1 through June 30, to correspond to the periods on which the BLRA rate increases are historically calculated. Slide 12 presents the transition payments information and an expected timeframe for our filing with the Public Service Commission of South Carolina. Once these events are complete, we will update the CapEx schedule and the corresponding financing plan. And now please turn to Slide 13 to review our estimated financing plan through 2018. As a reminder, we have switched to open rocket purchases instead of issuing new shares to fulfill our 401(k) and DRIP plans, at least until we have fully utilized the net cash proceeds from the sales of CGT and SCI. We do not anticipate the need for further equity issuances until 2017. And again, the election of the fixed price option would likely change planned equity issuances after 2016. While these are our best estimates of incremental debt and equity issuances, it is unlikely these issuances will occur in the exact amounts or timing as presented, as they are subject to changes in our funding needs for planned project expenses. We continued to adjust the financing to match the related project CapEx on a 50/50 debt and equity basis. On Slide 14, we are reaffirming our 2016 GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized earnings guidance as $3.90 per share to $4.10 per share, with an internal target of $4 per share. We continue to be cautiously optimistic about our long-term view, and are increasing the lower band of our long-term growth rate from 3% to 4%. We are also resetting our base year to 2015 GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized EPS of $3.73. Therefore, our new GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized annual growth guidance target will be to deliver 4% to 6% earnings growth over the three to five years using a base of 2015 GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized EPS of $3.73. This increase represents our projected earnings momentum, driven by our BLRA filings, our stated goal to manage base retail electric returns, and our view of the economy, balanced with our continued assumption of the impacts of energy conservation and efficiency standards. I also wanted to mention that earlier today we announced an increase of $0.12 in our annual dividend rate for 2016, to $2.30 per share, a 5.5% increase. We continue to anticipate growing dividends fairly consistent with earnings, while staying within our stated pay-out policy of 55% to 60%. And finally, on Slide 15, we are very pleased to report that in late December, we successfully completed the syndication of an expanded and extended credit facility. The additional liquidity is important to our nuclear construction project and accelerated CapEx spending at PSNC. The committed lines of credit now total $2 billion. I would like to thank our banks for their enthusiastic support of our liquidity needs, and therefore, the support of our nuclear expansion plans. We are pleased that we continue to receive an excellent response for our nuclear construction from our equity and debt investors, as well as our banks. And I’ll now turn the call over to Steve to provide an update on our nuclear project. Steve Byrne Thanks Jimmy. I’d like to begin by addressing the status of the settlement with the Consortium. Slide 16 presents the outline we have shown in previous discussions, as a recap. As you may be aware, Westinghouse closed on the transaction to acquire Stone & Webster from CB&I at the end of December, and Fluor began work as a subcontracted construction manager at the New Nuclear construction-site on January 4. We continue our analysis of the fixed price option, and will include input from Fluor as they progress. As a reminder, we have until November 1 of this year to unilaterally elect the fixed price option or not. And we plan to take as much time as needed to insure that we make the most prudent decision. Regardless of which scenario we choose, once a decision has been made, we will file a petition with the Public Service Commission to amend the capital cost and schedule for the project. As Jimmy said earlier, we expect to reach a conclusion in the second quarter. Moving on to some of the activities at the New Nuclear construction-site, Slide 17 presents an aerial photo of the site from September of 2015. I’ve provided this photo to give you a view of the layout of the site. And I’ve labeled both Units 2 & 3, as well as many other areas that make up what we call the table top. On Slide 18, you can see a picture of the Unit 2 Nuclear Island. In this picture you can see Module CA20 on the right hand side of the slide along the containment vessel Ring Number 1, which was placed on and welded to the lower bowl. Several of the large structural modules have now been placed inside the Unit 2 containment vessel. As we will discuss shortly, you can also see the beginnings of the shield building, as three courses have now been placed. Slide 19 shows a picture of the Unit 3 Nuclear Island. Module CA04 was placed inside the containment vessel lower bowl back in June, and the auxiliary building walls continue to go further. As you’ll see shortly, we are making progress with the fabrication and placement of containment vessel structural modules on both units. Slide 20 presents a schematic view of the five large structural modules that are located inside the containment vessel. I’ve shown this schematic numerous times before because this expanded view gives you a better feel for how CA01 through CA05 fit spatially inside the containment vessel. As we you may know, we have now placed CA01, CA04 and CA05 for Unit 2, and CA04 for Unit 3. Slide 21 shows a picture of the Unit 2 CA02 module. CA02 is a wall section that forms part of the unit containment refueling water storage tank. As mentioned last quarter, CA02 is now structurally complete and awaiting installation. Slide 22 shows a picture of the Unit 2 CA03, which is the west wall of the unit containment refueling water storage tank. 15 of CA03s 17 sub-modules are on-site, and 12 are now on their assembly platform. Slide 23 shows a picture of the Unit 3 module CA05. This module comprises one of the major wall sections within the containment vessel. Fabrication on the Unit 3 CA05 has been completed, and it has been staged outside the modular assembly building, or MAB. Slide 24 shows a picture of the Unit 3 CA20, which is the auxiliary building module that will be located outside and adjacent to the containment vessel. 68 of the 72 sub-modules are on-site, and 20 of those sub-modules have been upended on the construction platform or flattened for fabrication in the MAB. Slide 25 shows a picture of the beginnings of the Unit 3 module CA01. Module CA01 houses the steam generators and the pressurizer, and forms a refueling canal inside the containment vessel. Currently, we have 15 of the 47 sub-modules on-site, and three of those sub-modules are upright and being welded together in the MAB. Slide 26 shows the progress of the placement of the Unit 2 shield building panels. The first six-panel course was placed during the first half of 2015. During the fourth quarter of 2015, the second six-panel course was set on top of the first course. And at the beginning of this month, we placed the third six-panel course. As the shield building panels are placed and welded together, concrete is poured inside the panels to create the shield building. Concrete has been placed in the first two courses. Slide 27 shows a couple of pictures from the Unit 2 turbine pedestal concrete placement from December of 2015. Overall, more than 2,300 cubic yards of concrete was placed over the course of about 20 hours. Slide 28 shows a picture of the single phase for the 230-ton Unit 2 main transformers. There are four such transformers for each unit. And here you can see one of the four being rigged for placement adjacent to the Unit 2 turbine building. Each unit will have these four, plus six other transformers. All 10 of them in place for Unit 2, and all 10 have been received for Unit 3. On Slide 29, you’ll see the New Nuclear CapEx, actual and projected, over the life of the construction. This chart shows CWIP during the years 2008 to 2020, reflecting the Q4 of 2015 BLRA quarterly report that we filed in February. As a reminder, the BLRA report now reflects the cost from the October 2015 amended EPC. As you can see, we’re currently in the middle of the peak nuclear construction period. The green line represents the related actual and projected customer rate increases under the BLRA, and is associated with the right-hand axis. Please now turn to Slide 30. As we mentioned during our third-quarter call in September, the PSC approved a rate increase of $64.5 million. The new rates were effective for bills rendered on and after October 30. Our BLRA filings for 2016 are shown at the bottom of the slide. And as you can see, we recently filed our quarterly status report for the fourth quarter, and our next quarterly update will be filed in mid May. Not depicted here, but in the update filing I addressed earlier, the timing of that petition isn’t yet known. Finally, I wanted to mention the results of an analysis performed at the direction of the South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff. As you may be aware, the ORS contracted an independent accounting firm to determine whether the revised rate provision under the Base Load Review Act is cost-beneficial to SCE&G customers, consistent with our claims. This independent attestation, and concluded in January, and reaffirmed the significant cost advantage of the BLRA as envisioned when the law was originally passed. This report is available on the ORS’s Web site, and a link to the independent accounting firm’s report can be found in the regulatory document section of the Nuclear Development area of SCANA’s Investor Web site. That concludes our prepared remarks. We’ll now be glad to respond to any questions you might have. Question-and-Answer Session Operator We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jim von Riesemann of Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead. Jim von Riesemann A couple questions on the 4% to 6% growth rate, can you just elaborate again on how that’s calculated? How we should think about the out years? Because if somebody were to do a linear analysis, 2016 would be less than the 4%, if you are just growing 2016 versus 2015, did I make sense, or have I been on too many conference calls today? Jimmy Addison The first part of your question made sense. So how we calculate it is, the average of the annual increases over that three- to five-year period. So we’re comfortable that, that average growth in our plan today is at that 4% to 6% level. Now, the second part I’m not sure I followed. Jim von Riesemann Yes, I don’t think I followed it either. But it’s just really to get to 2016 versus 2015, because you’re not on a 4% plain year over year, especially with your guidance of $4. Jimmy Addison You are saying it’s above it right? Jim von Riesemann Yes. Jimmy Addison Yes, and so — but that’s why we consider it over the entire period, not just any one year. So every year wouldn’t necessarily be within that cone, but overall, the average would be. Jim von Riesemann Okay that I understand. So the question then becomes, with the fixed price option and your updated CapEx on the slides, how much of that is reflective — is anything reflected in, I guess, either your growth rate or for the fixed price option in your CapEx, or even your earnings growth rate? Jimmy Addison So the CapEx is based upon the amended agreement. It does not include the fixed price option. And that’s what our growth rate is based upon. I’m not sure that, if we were to adopt that option, that it would have a material impact on the earnings growth rate. But if we do later this year, and if it’s approved, we will certainly consider that. Jim von Riesemann Okay. And then I guess I have a question on bonus depreciation. Jimmy Addison Sure. Jim von Riesemann Previously, that was about 75 million a year. Have you updated those numbers given the tax extenders from December? Jimmy Addison Yes, that still is a good reference, the 75 million a year in the base business. And of course, what’s different now is the five-year view; so we have not had that in the past. So there’s obviously the potential for the New Nuclear units themselves to qualify for bonus depreciation. Although not at the 50% level, because it phases down to 40% and 30% in 2018 and 2019, respectively, so that’s the only thing that’s outside that $75 million estimate. Jim von Riesemann Okay. And then I guess the last question, really, maybe is for Steve. How — if you think about all of the components to build the two summer units, how much of them are still, say, overseas and still need to be shipped to the place? Or are most of the components on-site at this point in time? Steve Byrne A majority of the major components are on-site. I would say about 85%, and the remainder would be either overseas or domestic production. Of the major components left outstanding that would be overseas — let’s see, one of the — we’ve got two steam generators in Tucson. One of those is being shipped; the other one is nearing completion. I think all of the turbine generator stuff is on-site, condenser stuff is on-site, containment is on-site. We’ve got a couple of passive heat exchangers that are being reworked in Italy. Those should be finished shortly. We had cone pumps; those are domestic, but those won’t show up until 2017. That’s most of the major stuff. Now, when we get into sub-modules, we still have some of the sub-modules for the structural modules, particularly for the trailing unit, Unit 3. They are still in fabrication. And so for example, CA01 is being fabricated between Toshiba in Japan and IHI in Japan. There are 47 different sub-modules that are associated with the unit. 15 have been delivered, 15 of the 47. Seven have shipped. It just takes awhile for them to get here. And so the 25 are yet to be shipped. So we’ve got almost half of those are either on-site or on the ocean. So I think if I were to categorize it, 85% of the major equipment is on-site. And of the remaining stuff, a lot of it is physically complete. Some of it is waiting to be shipped; some is on the ocean now, on its way to our site. Operator Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of UBS. Please go ahead. Mike Weinstein Hi, this is Mike Weinstein, a couple of questions. One, did you say what was causing the drop-off in industrial growth, weather-adjusted? Jimmy Addison No, I really didn’t address that. It’s not a significant change, just showing down there about 0.5%. The one thing that makes it difficult to really address this quarter is, as you’ll probably remember from the national news is, we had a historic flood in central South Carolina. And there was an extensive impact on our industrial customers — everything from as simple as logistics of workers not being able to get to plants, to industrial intakes malfunctioning because of the extremely high water, to impacts on rail. So it’s really difficult to quantify that, so I’m not too alarmed by one period here of slightly down. Mike Weinstein Okay. And what’s causing the steep drop in SCE&G’s on the gas side, on its ROE versus PSNC. Which, when you look at the September numbers, there’s almost no change in North Carolina, but South Carolina really seems to have come off. Jimmy Addison Yes, it’s a function of obviously the rate base additions, as well as the operating cost, et cetera, involved in the units, and as well as the timing. I believe the South Carolina number is as of September 30, and the PSNC number is, I believe, at December 31. We just haven’t filed the South Carolina report yet, so we haven’t updated that one. Mike Weinstein All right, that makes sense. And on the nuclear side, the CapEx looks like it’s about $200 million higher in the peak spending years, 2017 and 2018. And it seems to flow through right into the CWIP. And I’m just wondering, does that mean that — does that result in higher BLRA rate increases going forward? And is that a result of the new — that’s all as a result of the settlement, right? Jimmy Addison Yes, so the CapEx numbers haven’t changed at all from what we presented in the third quarter. And this assumes just the amended agreement, not the fixed price option. All that’s changed is the timing of when they occur in this presentation, Michael, so that’s really the only adjustment. Mike Weinstein Okay, it’s just a timing issue. Jimmy Addison Yes. Mike Weinstein Okay all right and I guess thank you. Operator Our next question comes from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Please go ahead. Travis Miller You mentioned the second quarter, wanted to make the decision then on the fixed price option. Wondered if you could give me a timeline and thoughts on why you wouldn’t wait until November? And then secondly, if you do make that decision in the second quarter, what’s the regulatory schedule look like from that point? Jimmy Addison Let me start and then let Steve jump in. So we said that it’s likely to be Q2. That’s our best judgment. But Steve also said in the opening comments that we have until November. And if we think we need all that time, we will take all that time. So we’re just giving you our most likely estimate of when we think we’ll have a good assessment of Fluor’s input, et cetera, to make that call. And at the point that we feel like we have that and have our information together, we’ll make a filing with the Public Service Commission. And then they have their statutory six months to rule on that. And ballpark, sometime in the middle of that six months, we would be before them to present our information to ask for their support. Steve Byrne Travis, this is Steve. One train of thought would be, take as long as you’ve got to make the decision, which we fully understand. But we did in an ex parte fashion, brief our Public Service Commission on the two options that we would have going forward. And what we told them was as soon as we were complete with our evaluation we would come back to them with the option that we selected. So we intend to do that. One complicator that you might not see that makes my life a little more difficult is that in the interim, I have to sort of keep two sets of books. So I have to base assumptions on both where we’re exercising the fixed price option and we’re not exercising the fixed price option. And if we’re going to exercise one or the other, it’s a lot simpler for me — I can drop the other set of the books. So it takes all kinds of commercial issues off the table and just makes our lives a lot easier. Travis Miller So you briefed the regulators. Has there been any conversation or interaction with interveners or other groups that you think might have opposition to, say, the fixed price option, or at least a preference to one or the other? Steve Byrne Yes, we’ve done a number of briefings, some of which were public. We did a briefing for the legislature, for example. We’ve done briefings with the governor’s Nuclear Advisory Council. And some of the interveners were present during the ex parte briefing we had last November with the Public Service Commission. But there was no interaction with them at that point in time. So we have and will continue to have some interactions, but we don’t know who all of the interveners might be until we file something. And then they’re given the opportunity to intervene. So it’s not a surprise, but we won’t have any more conversation with our Public Service Commission until we make a filing. We aren’t allowed to have any conversation with them about the topic. Operator Our next question comes from Steven Byrd of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Steven Byrd I wanted to just talk about Toshiba for a moment. Toshiba has been in the press of late. And at a high level, just wanted to understand, as you think about their credit position and safeguards and protections for you, how should we think about ways that you can receive protection against potential deterioration in credit quality at Toshiba? Jimmy Addison Yes, well, let me just talk briefly about some contract provisions in a conceptual form, and then I’ll let Steve talk some operationally about the project. So we do have some security provisions in the contract if their ratings fall below a certain grade, and they have triggered those now. And we have initiated that security. And for confidentiality reasons, I’m just not going to get into the details of what that is, how much it is, et cetera. But it’s essentially meant to handle any kind of payment obligations were they not to be able to pay subcontractors, things of that nature. As well as performance obligations if they don’t live up to their terms of the contract, so that’s kind of the financial construct that’s in the contract that we have pulled the trigger on. And I’ll just let Steve talk a little about the project itself. Steve Byrne Yes, we’ve been tracking the situation at Toshiba. Obviously a very large company, I think the Japanese government would be loath to see them fail. But they have submitted obviously a restructuring plan. We were heartened to see in their restructuring plan that they intend to stay in the energy business. While they do intend to shed some of their business lines, they are going to stay in the energy business, which would include nuclear, so that’s a good thing for us. Also we are glad to see that, with the significant changes in leadership and the board at Toshiba, that the person that we have been largely dealing with in the nuclear arena survived that turmoil. And again, we think that’s a good thing. I do believe that Toshiba has been successful at securing some debt from some large Japanese banks just recently. Bankruptcy also doesn’t necessarily mean that things would stop. There are various kinds of bankruptcies. Not that we think it will get to that point, but it doesn’t necessarily mean things at the site will stop. And in addition to the sort of the financial protections that Jimmy just alluded to, we did actually forecast a situation like this back when we were negotiating the EPC contract. Not necessarily that we thought that the larger corporation, Toshiba, might have financial difficulties. But we were really focusing on perhaps the smaller corporations like Westinghouse and/or Shaw might have some financial difficulties. So we do have in the contract some provisions to escrow intellectual properties, such that if there were to be a succession of operations by the contractor, that we could finish the plant on our own. Steven Byrd And just shifting over to the Sanmen project in China, just wondered if you had any update there in terms of the status of Sanmen? Steve Byrne I don’t have any recent updates on Sanmen. We have a team that’s supposed to go over there, I think it’s in the April or May timeframe. So we’ll get more firsthand information then. My understanding is that we still anticipate that Sanmen 1 will come online sometime this year. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Weisel of Macquarie. Please go ahead. Andrew Weisel Two questions, first one is about the new long-term growth rate. Could you maybe talk outside of whether a major pick-up in the economy, what are some factors that could potentially take you to or above the high-end of that 6% level? Jimmy Addison Yes, I think the largest kind of at-risk variable from a positive or a negative standpoint, Andrew, is probably what happens with usage on electric, on the electric side, unrelated to weather. So what goes on in that area I mean, it’s obviously related to the economy, but what do people do with everyday electric consumption? And that’s been very difficult for our industry to model the last several years. It flattened out and was slightly up for us in 2015. That surprised us in a good way, a little. But that continues to be the most difficult thing for us to model. Andrew Weisel Anything on the capital side, obviously the nuclear CapEx estimates are constantly being adjusted. But anything in the base business that might get you, like I said, toward or above the high-end? Or potentially anything that can go wrong that would take you below that low-end? Jimmy Addison We feel pretty good about our CapEx plan. I mean, setting aside the New Nuclear, as you said in your question, which has the dynamic adjustment due to the project. We are doing in the base business the things we need to do to have safe, reliable power. But we aren’t doing a great deal of things beyond that in order to maintain no base rate increases during this period, or pressure on returns, if we were not to have increases. PSNC is probably the biggest story outside of that, with the growth in that area, particularly in the transmission area. And of course, we said earlier that we filed yesterday a notice of a pending rate increase there. But that is fairly well laid out. That could change some, based upon price of steel, and compression, and that kind of thing, over time. But I don’t expect it to vary a great deal. Andrew Weisel And then my other question is about the dividend. Obviously a bigger increase today than what we’ve seen in the past few years. And that takes you right to the midpoint of your targeted pay-out ratio, if we assume the midpoint of the EPS guidance. Going forward, should we expect the dividend to grow more of that kind of 5% range, which is the midpoint of the EPS growth? Or would it be more likely to revert back to the 3% or 4% range like what we’ve seen in the past several years? Jimmy Addison Yes if you’ll bear with me, let me give you 30 seconds of history here. When the recession hit and earnings slowed a great deal, we got outside of our pay-out policy of 55% to 60%. We got up close to 65% — 63% to 65%. We continued to grow dividends during those next few years, but we grew them at about half the rate of earnings growth, so that we could get back within the policy. And now we’re comfortably back within the policy, and our position at this point is, we expect to grow those dividends fairly consistent with earnings growth. Operator Our next question comes from Dan Jenkins with The State of Wisconsin Investment Board. Please go ahead. Dan Jenkins So first of all, I was just curious, on your financing plan for 2016, you show about $1 billion for SCE&G. I was wondering if you could give any insight as to the timing, would that be like throughout the year, or first half, second half? Jimmy Addison Yes, so today, we would model in roughly half of it about mid-year and half of it near the end of the year. That is definitely going to need to be dynamically adjusted to which option we end up electing, and the payment schedule that goes along with that, that we’ve talked about on the last call, as well as briefly on this one. So that’s really going to cause adjustments in that schedule. So I’m fairly sure it will adjust from this, but today’s best guess is about half mid-year and about half near the end of the year. Dan Jenkins Going to the nuclear unit, and in particular, I looked through the report you just filed for the fourth-quarter report. And in particular, it mentioned how the shield building is one of the primary critical path of things — items that’s potentially could, I guess — some of those modules you’re having trouble with, or whatever. So I was wondering if you could expand on that, and what the timing is, you think, when that item will be able to be resolved? Jimmy Addison Yes, I think the shield building items — when you say resolved I think we resolved most of our shield building issues there. The biggest issue that we had really was, they anticipated that the fit-up of this first-of-a-kind items, taking these individual panels that come from Newport News Industrial, or NNI, and then putting them together at the site, welding them up within the tolerances, and then filling them with concrete — was going to be very difficult. We’ve done a lot of mock-ups. We’ve received probably half the panels for the first unit and maybe 25% for the second unit. The placement so far ought to be categorized as going a little better than we had anticipated. So we’ve got 16 courses of steel panels that go in a ring that we eventually will fill with concrete. We’ve placed the first three of those courses already. The first two have been welded, fit and we poured concrete in. And the third course, we recently placed, so we’re welding that. But again, that’s going, I think, better than we had anticipated. So now our focus, since that is the critical path, is insuring that we get the sub-modules, the pieces, the panels, from NNI in a timely fashion. So Westinghouse has taken over the contract that CB&I used to have, so that’s now exclusively a Westinghouse-to-NNI deal, which we think is good. And then the delivery schedule looks to be good. And they’re negotiating a mitigation strategy. And in effect I’ll be going to NNI tomorrow to talk through the mitigation strategy that will accelerate some of those panel deliveries to the site. So I think the shield building, right now it’s going pretty well. But it is our focus area, because it is critical path. Dan Jenkins And then similarly, it talks a little bit about secondary critical paths being the CA20 and CA01 for Unit 3. Are those like parallel paths to the shield building issues, or are they dependent on the shield building path? Jimmy Addison No, Dan, not necessarily dependent on the shield building. But they would come in right in line after the shield building. So once we demonstrate proficiency with shield building, then you focus on whatever is next. So we’re always looking at primary, secondary, tertiary critical paths. So the secondary critical path is, as you mentioned, that CA20 module for the trailing Unit 3. We’ve already set CA20 for Unit 2 obviously. And we did come up with an interesting mitigation strategy for the CA20 module, whereas, on the first unit, on Unit 2, we set it as one piece. On the second one, we’re going to set it in two halves. And so that will save us probably a couple of months in the fabrication. And that’s important, because it actually forms a part of the concrete form work for the rest of the plant. So it’s important that we set that half of that, and use it as a form concrete while we’re working on the second half, and then set the second half. So as of right now, I thought that, that was — that the team on-site came up with that plan, we’re executing on that plan, and we ought to set that first half, CA20, for the second unit, in Q1, late Q1. And then we should set the second half of CA20 for Unit 3 probably early in Q2. Dan Jenkins And somewhat related to that, it mentions on — I don’t know if you have the report in front of you — on page 15 of it, in the middle of it, kind of related to the CA01 and CA20. That on the current schedule, the date doesn’t support the construction schedule for the units, so how is that being impacted in the overall schedule? How should we think about that? How much can that be mitigated? Jimmy Addison Yes, I think a good example of mitigation is the plan that we came up with to split the CA20 module into two halves. And CA01, we’re looking at similar things there. We’re looking to expedite the delivery of the sub-modules from IHI and Toshiba in Japan. Toshiba obviously has all the incentive in the world under the agreement that we negotiated in October to expedite whatever they can. So they both have — since they’re the parent company of Westinghouse, there are both penalties if they don’t do things on time, and there are significant bonus incentives if they do finish on time. So they’ve got as much incentive as we could possibly put into an agreement. So we’ll look to accelerate the schedule for the modules coming out of Japan for CA01. And we’re implementing a strategy to split CA20, set it in two halves instead of one large piece [indiscernible] CA20 portion. Operator Our next question comes from Jonathan Reeder of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Jonathan Reeder One quick point of clarity, so if Fluor’s assessment of the schedule comes back that the current schedule isn’t kind of feasible, how does that work then? Do you have to then negotiate another amended EPC contract before you would file that with the Commission so that the benchmarks, the milestones, are set appropriately in the next kind of approved BLRA? Jimmy Addison Jonathan, I think the short answer is, it depends on how far out they are. If you’ll remember with our last order from the Public Service Commission, we had a plus 18 months for each of the milestones. So as long as we stay within that 18 months, we don’t need to go back in on the schedule. So really, it’s going to depend on how far. But what I more envision is that Fluor might come back and say — in order to get the schedule on time, you have to accelerate this, you might have to bring in more resources than we have in the current plan. So where we think we’re going to peak at, say, 4,000 craft employees, they might come back and say — you need to get 4,500 craft employees. And that kind of an input might drive us towards opting for the fixed price, because more people mean more dollars. Jonathan Reeder Right, so that would impact, I guess, the non-fixed price option, and probably lend more credibility towards selecting the fixed price. That’s the way to think about it? Jimmy Addison Correct. Operator Our next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Michael Lapides A couple of nuts and bolts questions on the gas side of the business. First of all, at PSNC, if you filed later this Spring, when would rates go into effect? I forget, is that a 6- or a 12-month process in North Carolina? Jimmy Addison 6. Michael Lapides Okay. So rates would go in no later than like January 1 next year. And that’s a historical-looking rate case there, or can you do a forward or a big known immeasurable? Jimmy Addison It’s a bit of both. It’s a base historical test year, but you can kind of update for CWIP, as well as cap structure, kind of concurrent with the information being presented and any settlement being discussed or hearing before the Commission. Michael Lapides And on the gas side at SCE&G, when would you file under the Rate Stabilization Act to get a revenue increase? When does that normally happen, and when would that go into effect? Jimmy Addison Yes, so that runs through the end of the heating season, the measurement period through the end of March, and we make the filing in May of each year. And any adjustment either way, if we’re 50 basis points out, would be effective the first of November for the implementation of the typical heating season in the fall although that did not happen this past year. Michael Lapides And then, Steve, one question I just want to make sure I understood that your comments about Toshiba and some of the financial and credit metric issues Toshiba has. And you’ve mentioned that you already started the process with Toshiba to kind of recover some of the security-related funds. Did you do that because of their downgrades? Did you do that because Toshiba is having issues paying some of the local subcontractors, or some of the vendors or suppliers? What was the main driver for starting the process now? Jimmy Addison Hi Michael this is Jimmy, I commented on that earlier, so I’ll clean it up here. No, that’s just procedural. It’s just an option afforded us under the contract. We’ve had no issues that we’re aware of at all with any subs being paid, or anything like that. Operator Our next question comes from Claire Tse of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. David Paz Hi this is actually David Paz. Sorry if I missed this earlier. Does your 4% to 6% EPS growth rate assume any bonus depreciation impact on the New Nuclear units when they come into service in 2019 and 2020? Jimmy Addison Yes, the guidance assumes the bonus depreciation on the base business. We’ve really not contemplated yet or modeled exactly what might happen with the bonus depreciation on the new units themselves. There’s a lot of consideration has to go into that, along with the production tax credits, et cetera, to make sure we maximize the value for the customer. David Paz I see. So it’s not — it essentially hasn’t been modeled in the 4% to 6%? Jimmy Addison Right. David Paz Okay. Do you happen to know, or can I find somewhere in the BLRA filings what the cumulative costs for Unit 2 would be through 2019, as you currently stand today? Jimmy Addison Well, on the amended contract, it’s about — the total price of the units is about $7.1 billion, so you can roughly estimate 50% of that. David Paz Okay. Jimmy Addison David, are you looking for what’s been spent to-date? David Paz Well, not just to-date, but obviously you have the BLRAs by year. But if I knew just what Unit 2’s portion was through that 2019, that’s what I was trying to get a more exact number. But obviously I can ballpark it. Jimmy Addison Yes. We’ve not broken it out between Unit 2 and Unit 3 so yes you’d have to ballpark it. David Paz And then just can you go through the process for how each unit goes into rate base? Like is there a formal filing with the PSC when each unit is completed? How is that process? Jimmy Addison So what we do is, we have to prepare a projected operating cost-year, if you will, so an implementation year. The first phase of the BLRA is to get the plans approved. The second phase happens each year, are the revised rates. And the third is the operating cost going in. And so we’ll have to project what the depreciation and the operating costs, et cetera, are. And that does not require a hearing. It just requires us to present it to the Office of Regulatory Staff and to the Commission like we do the revised rates each year. Operator Our next question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead. Paul Patterson I wanted to touch base with you on the last question there, on the BLRA and the bonus depreciation. It sounds like you guys were trying to — that you were analyzing the PTC and the impact of taking bonus, and what have you. And I’m just trying to get a sense as to what that process is kind of like, and sort of some of the factors that sort of go around that, if you follow me? And how that might change the 4% to 6% potentially? Jimmy Addison Well, the only real impact is likely to be just on financing itself, and any temporary benefits on financing. I mean, bonus depreciation is simply accelerating a deduction that you’re going to get at some point in the future, to an earlier point in time. So you aren’t going to change your total taxes per books, because you’re going to change your deferred taxes. So if you end up with a larger deferred tax credit because of the bonus depreciation, you’re going to end up with lower rate base there in the short run. But in the very short run, it’s just going to have some financing benefits to it, just like the bonus depreciation does on the base business. Paul Patterson Well, that’s what I was wondering. I’m just wondering whether or not — I mean, I understand that. I guess what I’m wondering is, is there any potential impact in the near term if the bonus depreciation was factored into it? In other words, how should we think about the potential sensitivity in the near term if bonus depreciation, which my understanding, is not being factored in now, if it were to come in, can you give us any rule of thumb or thought process as to if there would be impact, and what that impact might be? Jimmy Addison No, we’re talking about something that would potentially be a cash impact in the second half of 2019, so I don’t really see any near-term impact on it. Paul Patterson Okay. So in other words, if the bonus depreciation, there’s no potential for it to take — it would happen then regardless, it wouldn’t be happening any time earlier in terms of your analysis? Jimmy Addison That’s right. That’s correct. Paul Patterson Okay, thanks so much for the clarity. And then just finally on the sales growth, I believe you guys, in your last IRP, were around 1.4% for retail sales growth, I think, just over the long period. Is that still pretty much what you guys are looking at? Jimmy Addison Yes, we’re going to be filing a new IRP, what in the next few weeks Steve? Steve Byrne Yes. Within the next two weeks. Jimmy Addison And we were just reviewing a draft of that earlier this week, and I don’t think where we are at, at this point is materially different. But we’ll be filing that in the next few weeks. Operator Our next question comes from Mitchell Moss of Lord, Abbett. Please go ahead. Jimmy Addison Mitchell, we can’t hear you. Mitchell Moss Sorry about that. Jimmy Addison Okay. Mitchell Moss Okay, good. Just to follow-up on some of the questions on Toshiba’s credit ratings and downgrades. In terms of next steps, if there are further downgrades for Toshiba, is there a — is it kind of like incremental steps of, if there’s a single — if Toshiba’s rating moves down one more notch, there’s sort of one or two more steps? Or is there sort of Toshiba has to fall several rating notches from here before you guys would need to, I guess, do further action regarding taking any security actions? Jimmy Addison Right, so the contractual security provisions I mentioned earlier are binary. Their ratings meet the criteria for us to elect those, or they don’t. And they’ve met those, so there’s no further impacts, there’s no graded scale or anything. Mitchell Moss Okay. So the ratings, where they’re at now, you haven’t needed to take any — there haven’t been any security provisions activated, or there have been? Jimmy Addison There have not been in the past, we recently initiated those and they have 60 days for those to be fulfilled. Mitchell Moss Okay. Jimmy Addison And those are all of the provisions once fulfilled. Mitchell Moss Okay. And just on a more of a technical question, your Slide 13 I believe yes Slide 13 shows debt refinancings at SCANA in 2018 are 170 million utility is 550. Last quarter you had combined it at about 720 all that SCANA and so I just wanted to find out to better understand I see the 550 in terms of just that at the utility I just want those understand 170 million of SCANA debt is? Jimmy Addison Yes, that relates to the South Carolina Generating Company. But it’s one plant that operates solely for SCE&G. All the power goes to SCE&G. So it’s a separately financed plant, but it’s solely related to — we call it GenCo — South Carolina Generating Company. Mitchell Moss Okay. So, it’s not really a holding company debt. Jimmy Addison That’s right but it technically is a subsidiary of SCANA and that’s the reason we presented it that way. Operator And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jimmy Addison for any closing remarks. Jimmy Addison Well. Thank you so far this has been a very eventful and productive year and we’re excited about the new arrangement with Westinghouse and Fleur. We continue to focus on the new nuclear construction and on operating all of our businesses in a safe and reliable manner. We thank you all for joining us today and for your interest in SCANA. Have a good afternoon. Operator The conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a great day. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) 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ALLETE’s (ALE) CEO Al Hodnik on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Operator Good day and welcome to the ALLETE Fourth Quarter 2015 Financial Results Call. Today’s call is being recorded. Certain statements contained in this conference call that are not descriptions of historical facts are forward-looking statements, such as terms defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because such statements can include risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in filings made by the company with Securities and Exchange Commission. Many other factors that will determine the company’s future results are beyond the ability of management to control or predict. Listeners should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect management’s views only as the date hereof. The company undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements or to make any other forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. For opening remarks or introduction, I’d like to now turn the conference over to ALLETE President and Chief Executive Officer, Alan R. Hodnik. Sir, please go ahead. Al Hodnik Good morning everybody and thank you for joining us today. With me is ALLETE’s Chief Financial Officer, Steve DeVinck. Before I began with my remarks, I would like Steve to briefly cover the 8-K we issued last week relating to a non-cash impairment charge at ALLETE Properties. Steve? Steve DeVinck Thank you, Al. Last week we announced that 2015 results were reflected $22.3 million after-tax or $0.46 per share non-cash impairment charge at ALLETE Properties on legacy Florida real estate investment. In response to market conditions and recent transaction activity, we have revaluated our strategy for ALLETE properties to include the possibility of a bulk sale of the entire portfolio which have consummated would likely be below book value. We will also continue to pursue sales of individual parcels overtime. Established in 1991, ALLETE Properties has been a successful business and contributed meaningfully to both earnings and cash flow through 2007. We have not made an acquisition of ALLETE Properties since 2002 and our strategy in recent years has been to thoughtfully exit over time as opportunities arose. Our objective is to unlock capital as we close out this historically successful legacy business and deploy proceeds into our strategy initiative. Al? Al Hodnik Thanks Steve. Earlier this morning we reported our 2015 financial results which reflect many successes for ALLETE during the year despite challenges on several fronts. Our reported earnings per share were $2.92 per share which includes profit from ALLETE Clean Energy’s construction and sale of a wind energy facility, the non-cash impairment charge at ALLETE Properties and acquisition transaction fees related to ALLETE’s energy infrastructure and related services businesses. Our full year results from our operating segments were as expected and Steve will go through the financial details in a moment. ALLETE’s value proposition remains intact and our 2015 results are a good example of how our operating businesses support ALLETE’s mission and how management deals with economic challenges and delivers on shareholder value. Our earnings guidance for 2016 remains at a range of between $3.10 to $3.40 per share and among other things reflects strong cost control efforts and increased cost recovery rider revenue in Minnesota Power, as well as growth at both ALLETE Clean Energy and U.S. Water. Before Steve goes through the earnings results, I would like to highlight several accomplishments from 2015. I believe the tremendous progress we have made on our strategy is clearly positioning ALLETE for continued growth through the end of the decade and beyond. ALLETE’s unique family of businesses is committed to service and reliability as we thoughtfully expand our significant renewable energy platform for answering the nation’s call to transform its energy and water sectors. ALLETE is well positioned to capitalize on an emerging environmental landscape that will not only require cleaner energy sources, but will also plays even greater emphasis on energy and water conservation to meet changing societal expectation. First, I’ll highlight several accomplishments from our regulated operations and additional efforts towards positioning our energy services businesses for the future. If you recall back in 2012, a severe rainstorm caused significant damage to Thomson Hydro, Minnesota Power’s largest hydro generation station. We are pleased that the Thomson Hydro Generating Station came back to full production in the fourth quarter of 2015, after more than 3 years and $90 million of restoration in repair work. This facility provides approximately 70 megawatts of carbon-free generation to our system. Minnesota Power recently completed the mercury emissions reduction project at Boswell Unit 4 which completes the compliance at our largest generating unit. There were also significant advancements during the year with the great northern transmission line, the proposed 220 mile, 500 kV line that will deliver hydro-electric generated electricity from Manitoba to Minnesota Power. During 2015, the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission determined the certificate of need and the route permit application were complete. Minnesota Power anticipates final route in presidential permit approval this spring. Great Northern Transmission Line construction is expected to begin in [Ernest] [ph] in 2017, with completion scheduled for 2020. We recently received commission approval to proceed with a 10 megawatts solar installation which will be built at Camp Ripley, Minnesota’s primary national-guard base near Little Falls on the southwestern edge of Minnesota Power’s service territory. The $30 million project will help Minnesota Power to achieve about one-third of its requirements under the state’s solar energy standard. Construction of the solar array is expected to begin in May, and continue to December with the goal to be producing solar power by November of this year. This creative partnership is a latest example of how Minnesota Power is achieving and advancing its Energy Forward strategy. Energy Forward balances stewardship, reliability, and affordability while maintaining fuel diversity within a generation portfolio that by the early 2020s will be comprised of one-third renewable, one-third natural gas, and one-third coal. All of these construction projects I just mentioned qualify for current cost recovery treatment which has provided as rate recovery outside of a general rate case proceeding. Related to our regulated businesses, on the industrial customer front, Minnesota Power’s taconite customers had a year of challenges to say the least. While there is no lack of domestic steel demand, challenges continue due to high levels of steel dumping into the United States. Minnesota Power’s customers nominated at approximately 80% of their capacity for the first four months of 2016. We continue to work closely with these customers on this and other issues, while we monitor developments with their production levels as we move forward into 2016. As you know, Minnesota Power also serves over a dozen wholesale customers. In September, we reported that electric contracts with 14 municipal customers were successfully amended to extend contract terms through December 31 2024. ALLETE Clean Energy expanded its renewable energy footprint in presence in 2015. During 2015 ACE acquired the 97.5 megawatt Chanarambie-Viking wind generation facility in Southern Minnesota, and they also acquired the 101 megawatt Armenia Mountain wind energy facility in Pennsylvania. ACE currently owns and operates approximately 535 megawatts of wind generating capability across the United States. In addition to owning and operating renewable energy facilities, in late 2014, we announced that ACE obtained the rights to develop and construct a 107 megawatt wind facility for Montana-Dakota Utilities. Earlier this year, we reported that Thunder Spirit was completed as planned at the end of 2015. We are proud of ALLETE Clean Energy’s accomplishments including adding this build-owned-transfer capability to its playbook. And we are excited about its prospects to leverage the cleaner energy future before us. Last but certainly not least, ALLETE acquired U.S. Water Services in early 2015. U.S. Water is a leader in integrated water management to growing number of industrial customers throughout the United States. With societal expectations rising around water quality, conservation, scarcity and reuse, we believe U.S. Water is well positioned to grow while addressing these interests. Financially and operationally, ALLETE had a very successful year even with the headwinds coming at some of our nation’s largest industries. ALLETE’s businesses posted financial result as expected and we made significant strides in executing our strategic plans. I will make some comments about our outlook for 2016 and beyond, but I will first ask Steve to go through the financial details. Steve? Steve DeVinck Thanks Al. For the year, ALLETE reported earnings of $2.92 per share on net income of $141.1 million versus earnings of $2.90 per share on net income of $124.8 million in 2014. Included in 2015 results are $20.4 million or $0.42 per share profit on the construction and sale of the Wind Energy facility by ALLETE Clean Energy, a $22.3 million or $0.46 per share non-cash impairment charge at ALLETE Properties; and $4.8 million or $0.10 per share of acquisition transaction fees related to ALLETE’s energy infrastructure and related services businesses. Earnings in 2014 included $1.4 million or $0.03 per share in acquisition transaction fees and a $2.5 million or $0.06 per share charge associated with an environmental protection agency settlement. ALLETE’s results are within its November 2015 earnings guidance range of $3.35 to $3.50 per share, which did not include impacts of the impairment charge or acquisition transaction fees. ALLETE also met its original December 2014 guidance of $3 to $3.20 per share, which did not include the impacts of the impairment charge, acquisition transaction fees or profit on the construction sale of the Wind Energy facility. Earnings from ALLETE’s regulated operation segment, which includes Minnesota Power, Superior Water Light and Power and the company’s investment in the American Transmission Company recorded net income of $131.6 million, an increase of $8.6 million over 2014. Earnings increased primarily due to higher cost recovery rider revenue, production tax credits, and power marketing sales, as well as lower operating and maintenance expenses. These increases were partially offset by lower industrial sales and higher depreciation interest and property tax expense. In addition, Minnesota Power recorded a reserve in 2015 for estimated refunds of $1.6 million after tax related to MISO return on equity compliance of which $900,000 was attributable to prior years. Our equity earnings in ATC in 2015 also reflected a $3 million after tax charge for reserves related to the same complaint of which $1.4 million after tax was attributable to prior years. Operating revenue from the regulated operation segment decreased $12.3 million or 1% from 2014 primarily due to lower field cost recoveries and gas sales, partially offset by higher cost recovery rider revenue, total kilowatt hour sales, as well as FERC pro forma based rate increases. Fuel cost recoveries decreased $37.1 million due to lower fuel and purchase power cost attributable to our retail and municipal customers. Revenue from gas sales at Superior Water Light and Power decreased $11 million as a result of the unseasonably cold weather in 2014 and warmer than average 2015. Heating degree were approximately 16% lower in 2015 compared to 2014. Cost recovery rider revenue increased $17.8 million primarily due to the completion of our 205 megawatt addition to our Bison Wind Energy Centre and CapEx 2020 projects, as well as higher capital investment balances for the Boswell Unit 4 environmental upgrade. Revenue increased $14.7 million due to a 3.1% increase in total kilowatt-hour sales. Sales to other power suppliers increased 48.4% mostly due to the commencement of the Minnkota Power sales agreement in June of 2014. Sales to our residential and municipal customers were lower due to the decline in heating degree days previously mentioned, and sales to our industrial customers decreased 11.4% primarily due to reduced taconite production. Revenue from our regulated customers increased $6.9 million primarily due to additional renewable, environmental, and other investments. On the expense side, transmission services increased $8.5 million or 19% from 2014, primarily due to higher MISO related expenses. Cost of sales decreased $9.4 million from 2014 due to the previously mentioned lower gas sales at Superior Water Light and Power. Operating and maintenance expense decreased $11.2 million or 5% from 2014, due to cost reduction efforts and $4.2 million charge in 2014, related to the EPA consent decree settlement. Cost reduction efforts resulted in lower wage, vehicle fleet, and miscellaneous employee expenses. These reductions were partially offset by no increases for the operation and maintenance of the 205 megawatt addition at our Bison Wind Energy Center that went into service at the end of last year. Depreciation and amortization expense increased $17.1 million or 14% from 2014, primarily due to additional property, plant and equipment and service. Taxes other than income taxes increased $4.3 million or 10% from 2014, primarily due to higher property tax expenses resulting from higher taxable plant and rates. Interest expense increased $4.7 million or 10% primarily due to higher average long term debt balances. Our equity earnings in ATC decreased $3.3 million or 17% from 2014. As we previously mentioned, our equity earnings in ATC were impacted by a $5.2 million charge, $3 million after-tax, the reserves related to the MISO return on equity compliance. Other income decreased $4.4 million from 2014, primarily due to lower AFUDC-Equity. Income tax expense decreased $14.6 million or 37% from 2014, primarily due to increased production tax credits as a result of the previously mentioned 205 megawatt addition to our Bison Wind Energy Center. Before I move on from the regulated businesses, I want to emphasize that we remain committed to cost containment at Minnesota Power. Despite known operating and maintenance expense increases for the 205 megawatt addition at our Bison facility, I am pleased that regulated operations, operating and maintenance expense is lower than 2014. We are reducing cost at Minnesota Power to reduce rate increases for our customers, improve our return on equity overtime, and manage through the impact of temporary cyclicality facing our customers in taconite mine. ALLETE’s energy infrastructure and related services businesses which include ALLETE Clean Energy, and U.S. Water Services, recorded net income of $29.9 million and $900,000 respectively. Earnings at ALLETE Clean Energy, increased $26.6 million over the last year due to higher earnings from its growing portfolio of Wind Energy facilities and a $24.4 million in profit earned on the construction and sale of the Wind Energy Facility. Operating revenue increased $228.9 million from 2014, with $197.7 million coming from the sale of the wind facility. Acquisitions in late 2014 and during 2015 also contributed to the year-over-year increase. U.S. Water acquired by ALLETE on February 10th of last year, is a leader in integrated water management to a growing number of industrial and commercial customers throughout the United States. U.S. Water Services had net income of $900,000 on revenue of a $119.8 million for the period February 10, 2015, through December 31, 2015. Earnings included $2.2 million of after-tax expense related to purchase accounting for inventories and sales backlog. The total impact of this purchase accounting adjustment is $2.5 million after-tax and is expected to be fully recognized by the first quarter of 2016. The corporate and other segment which includes BNI Energy, ALLETE Properties, and other miscellaneous corporate income and expense, posted a net loss of $21.3 million compared to a net loss of $1.5 million in 2014. The net loss for 2015,included the $22.3 million after-tax impairment charge at ALLETE Properties, and the $3 million after-tax expense for acquisition cost for the acquisition of U.S. Water Services. Earnings per share for 2015,were diluted by $0.36 due to an increase in weighted average shares outstanding. Our effective tax rate in 2015,was 15.2% compared to 22.6% in 2014. The decrease was mostly due to increased production tax credits resulting from the addition at our Bison Wind facility. We anticipate the effective tax rate for 2016, will be approximately 20%. ALLETE’s financial position continues to be solid, driven primarily by higher net income in non-cash expense. Cash from operating activities increased $70.3 million in 2015, to a total of $340.1 million. Our debt-to-capital ratio at year end was 47%. As Al, mentioned, ALLETE’s 2016 earnings guidance initiated last December includes a range of $3.10 to $3.40 per share. I would direct you to the 8-K filed last December for more details and key assumptions as part of our earnings guidance. Al? Al Hodnik Thank you for the financial update, Steve. ALLETE is a growing energy company that provides sustainable energy solutions through initiatives that are regulated utility businesses and at our complimentary energy infrastructure and related services businesses. I will highlight several areas for you along with some of our expectations for 2016, at our regulated businesses, Minnesota Power, will continue to execute its energy forward initiatives and pursue customer growth opportunities. Construction on the Great Northern Transmission line is ready to begin next year, and will provided investment and growth opportunities through the end of the decade. We feel that our energy forward actions have positioned us very well for the CPP, and other regulations. But like many other utilities, we harbor some concerns about ensuring we receive credit for early action taken to the benefit of all stakeholders. As well as the consequential nature of this regulation as it relates to reliability and affordability. While the CPP was stayed last week in a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, we continue to work with stakeholders in shaping Minnesota’s CPP state implementation plan, continue to monitor its legal status and are taking necessary and prudent action to protect the value of our investments. We worked hard to reduce cost at Minnesota Power, and we have made significant progress. We have thoughtfully made workforce reductions with the elimination of approximately 100 position or 8% in 2015. We are pleased that the overwhelming majority of these reductions are made through coal fleet and other forms of attrition. We have also recently filed a proposal to implement Minnesota’s Energy-Intensive Trade-Exposed or EITE legislation signed into law by Governor Dayton. The EITE by design would allow for more competitive rates for large industrial customers. Last week the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission gave the EITE a fair hearing but rejected the petition without prejudice. The commission in taking the action they did, indicated they require more cost benefit information before they could make a final determination. Minnesota Power intends to meet once again with all stakeholders before determining next steps with EITE. In addition, Minnesota Power filed a depreciation life extension request, fully consistent with the environmental upgrades completed at our Boswell generating facility. If approved, this request would share some of the benefits immediately with customers. As I mentioned earlier, our Taconite customers nominated 80% capacity level for the first four months of the year. Nominations will occur in March, for the May to August time period, and in August, for the final four months of 2016. I should say that some of the idling reflected in these lower production levels could provide opportunities that have long, positive effects on taconite production here in northeastern Minnesota. To be specific, Cliffs Natural Resources has publicly shared its plan to retool its United Taconite plant in to produce Eveleth, to produce a fully fluxed taconite pellet. That new product will replace a flux pellet now made at Cliffs Empire operation in Michigan, which is scheduled to shutdown at the end of 2016. On the new customer scene, Essar’s last public update indicated it will achieve full production capability in 2016. As you will recall, the Essar facility will result in approximately 110 megawatts of new load for Minnesota Power, once it reaches full production levels. So the project has had its share of financing and market challenges since it was announced several years ago. We believe this opportunity for additional new load remains intact and operational startup is simply a matter of “when” and not “if”. To date, Essar has invested in excess of $1 billion in this facility which sits on the substantial, and very high quality ore body in Northeastern Minnesota. We do not anticipate any meaningful sales related to the Essar facility in 2016. PolyMet is anticipating the record of decision on its environmental impact state adequacy from the State of Minnesota in February, and action on applicable permits will follow. Construction could commence late this year, and Minnesota Power could begin to supply between 45 and 50 megawatts of new load to a 10year power supply contract that would begin upon start up of mining operation. ALLETE Clean Energy is positioned for earnings growth in 2016, as a result of the wind energy facilities it acquired during 2015. ACE will continue to target acquisitions of existing facilities which have long term power sales agreements in place. U.S. Water will further compliment our core regulated operation, balance exposure to our Utilities industrial customers, and provide potential long term earnings growth. 2015 marked a productive year of post-acquisition integration efforts, as well as a tuck-in acquisition in the southeastern United States. This, as U.S. Water continues its growth strategy, now, as part of the ALLETE family of businesses. Water and energy are intricately linked and attention to this nexus is increasing. Just like energy, we believe regulation and societal expectation will increasingly drive water conservation and that those macro factors along with opportunities for improved profitability will drive a growing emphasis on the efficient use of both water and energy. All of us at ALLETE are excited about our prospects going forward and we look forward to delivering another year of earnings growth. Our Board is confident in our direction, and recently voted to increase the dividend on our common stock. This is the sixth consecutive year we have had raised our dividend, and ALLETE has paid dividends without interruption since 1948. Thank you for your confidence and your investment with us. At this time, I’ll ask the Operator to open up the line for your questions. Question-and-Answer Session Operator [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon from KeyBanc. Your line is open. Paul Ridzon As you talked to your customers with steel exposure, kind of what’s their tone, are we bouncing on the bottom, are we starting to see some potential upside here, or is it just all in the hands of trade commission? Al Hodnik No, I think the sense is that, we’re bouncing off the bottom, at this point in time there are some green shoots beginning to appear, the ITC and some of the trade action that’s already been taken certainly back in Q4 of last year the sort of fuel consumption, some sort of imports within that 35% range, they’re trending down now and heading hopefully below 30% or heading in the right direction outlaid. There’s certainly more work to be done on some of these ITC sort of proceedings that are going on. We expect to hear more about that. I was also pleased to see that Governor Dayton from Minnesota has stepped up with other Governors, the Governors conference, and a dozen or so of the Governors have had conversation about spending more time with President Obama, on sort of additional levels of protection that might be able to be put into place. As you recall President Reagan and President Bush, impose section 201 of the 1974 Trade Agreement, and shutdown steel dumping altogether. And so we continue to push for that Chief of Staff, McDonough, President Obama, Chief of Staff was in Minnesota in December. I participated in that as there are number of steel company executives to express our concerns about steel dumping and so. Overall, I’m feeling more confident Paul, that we’re making progress on the steel dumping side, and that production here in the U.S. on the iron ore side can then follow. There’s certainly no lack of steel demand in the Great Lakes, as you know auto production is strong at this point in time, other durable goods production is pretty strong as well too. So, U.S. domestic production of steel was strong and we just need to end the steel dumping, and I think its heading in the right direction. Paul Ridzon Thank you. And Steve, can you review your commentary on O&M at Minnesota Power? Steve DeVinck Sure, Paul. I will. We remain committed to cost containment at Minnesota Power, to reduce rate increases for our customers, improve our return on equity overtime, and manage the impact of temporary cyclicality facing our customers on the taconite mining. With our 2016 guidance, we projected 2016 regulated operation and maintenance expense to be approximately 5% to 10%, less than 2014. This despite no increases for the operation and maintenance of these addition to our Bison Wind Energy facility. With respect to 2015, it is approximately $5 million to $11 million or 5% less than 2014, approximately $4 million of that is the charge that we had in 2014 for the settlement of an EPA. Paul Ridzon Okay, that’s the part I missed, that’s the part I missed, Steve, thanks. And given how successful you’ve been and how aggressive you continue to be, what’s your outlook on potential for Rate Cases or Rate Case? Steve DeVinck Yeah, our strategy Paul, as you know has been to improve Minnesota Power’s return on equity overtime through expense reductions and more clarity on load growth. Certainly, we made progress on the expense reductions including the workforce reduction Al, previously discussed. Of course, as we talked about consistent with our energy forward strategy, we’re seeking use for life extension at our Boswell facility, consistent with the remaining use for life of the extensive environmental upgrades that we have completed. This annual benefit is anticipated to be approximately $20 million, and reduced depreciation expense of which approximately one third would be returned to customers through the environmental cost recovery rider. We are evaluating the six months extension requested by the Department of Commerce, yesterday. We are also monitoring developments with our industrial customers to better understand future operation expectations. Nominations from our larger power customers are due March 1, as Al, mentioned, for May through August, and we expect to have more information on our talks about general Rate Case when we release earnings for the first quarter of 2016. Paul Ridzon Okay, thank you very much and I guess I’ll see you in a couple weeks. Al Hodnik Thanks, Paul. See you in New York. Paul Ridzon Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next call comes from Brian Russo from Ladenburg Thalmann. Your line is open. Brian Russo Hi, good morning. Just what is the updated net book value — depreciated book value on the floor properties following the impairment? Steve DeVinck Approximately, $50 million. Brian Russo Okay. And what changed from a year ago? What triggered the impairment and is there something pending in terms of a bulk sale, which triggered this impairment? Al Hodnik The impairment was really due to in response to market conditions and other recent transaction activity, where we reevaluate our strategy. This revised strategy incorporates the possibility of a bulk sale for the entire portfolio which if consummated market indicators point to us with that will likely be in sales proceeds below book value. And we’ll continue to pursue sales of individual properties of course overtime. At this time we do not have affirmed sale of ALLETE properties. We expect that as we adjust our selling prices to better reflect market, the sales activity could pick up. As we stated, our objective is to unlock capital as we close out this successful legacy business and deploy the proceeds and our strategic initiatives. Brian Russo Okay, understood. And on the Boswell depreciation study, did I hear you correctly, the Department of Commerce requested a six month extension? Al Hodnik Yes, they did that yesterday. It was requested and granted. Brian Russo Okay. So, requested and granted, got it. Okay, so one of the six months on that. Just remind us what’s assumed in your guidance in terms of demand nominations to the 8% through the first four months or 80% for the entire year? Steve DeVinck So the midpoint of our guidance range, our guidance range is 310 to 340, assumes about 35 million tons of taconite production. And remember that in Northern Minnesota there is at capacities about 41 million tons. Brian Russo Okay, got it. And then you mentioned earlier Essar has publically stated that they assume full operation at 2016, however you guys have assumed no sales to Essar in 2016, are you just being conservative or there is something else that we should be aware of? Al Hodnik We’re just being conservative at this point. The — as I said to you many times and others that the start up of large taconite facilities are — it’s not sort of turn the switch on, and it’s110 megawatts in this case. So there’s a start up period, obviously they’ve had some construction fits and starts too as well. So we just decided to be conservative in 2016 with it and they said they’ve got a $1 billion investment at this stage of the game, and in my mind in our minds at least it’s not a matter of “if” it’s a matter of “when”. Brian Russo Okay. And then lastly, given the challenges that the solar industry is facing now, do you see ALLETE Clean Energy as becoming even more opportunistic as you were in 2015 in pursuing acquisitions? Al Hodnik Well, ALLETE Clean Energy is not going to continue to pursue acquisitions that make sense along all forms of the renewable space, the wind, and solar, and hydro, even clean sort of natural gas projects that come up. We still think cleaner energy forms are involved, the CPP even if it stay, certainly its base is really as cleaner energy forms as well. And so, we’re going to continue to look, they’re going to continue to look. They certainly have a deal flow and a pipeline of opportunities. But we’re going to be very disciplined as we have been and look for those that really provides best opportunities for shareholder value for ALLETE, those that come complete with PPAs, with off takers and credit worthy partners. Brian Russo Okay, thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jay Dobson from Wunderlich. Your line is open. Jay Dobson Steve, earned ROE for 2015 at the regulated operations was? Steve DeVinck Minnesota Power’s total regulated return activity was approximately 8.5% in 2015. We estimate that with full taconite production return on equity would have been approximately 9%. I mean you might be interested about our views on 2016. The midpoint of our 2016 earnings guidance range we estimate Minnesota Power’s ROE would be in the mid-to-high 8% range. We estimate that with full taconite production return on equity would have been approximately 9%. And just a reminder, this does not include any impact from Essar or PolyMet. Jay Dobson Got you. That’s great. And then to the O&M, just for clarity, you said 5% to 10% when you gave guidance lower than 2014, but you got 5% in 2015. So the math isn’t going to be perfect. Is it fair to assume 2016 now relative to 2015, this sort of zeroed 4% to 5% reduction. Steve DeVinck Yes. That is fair. We did better in 2015 than we originally anticipated. So we are happy about that, but your math is probably fairly correct. Jay Dobson Great. And Steve was the real estate drag in 2015 and excluding of course the impairment. Steve DeVinck Yes, thank you. Excluding the impairment ALLETE Properties lost about $1 million. Jay Dobson Great. And then two sort of detailed questions. The purchase accounting impact that U.S Water you sighted is $2.5 million. That was the full impact in 2015. I am stating as the statement, but it’s a question and that’s a pre-tax number? Al Hodnik That is an after tax number and that’s the impact for the full year? Jay Dobson That is. So there will be that little stub period from January 01, 2016 to February 09, 2016 and then it will be exhausted. Al Hodnik Correct. Jay Dobson Great. And then the tax rate 15% roughly in 2015, 20% in ’16. What PTCs are you assuming in the 20% and I only ask that because you said the ’15 was sort of lower than expected, because you had a higher than expected PTCs. Al Hodnik No. I don’t know that it was lower than expected. We had higher PTCs from last year, production tax credits. 20%, it will go up to about 20% in 2016, primarily just due to higher pretax – a higher assumption of higher pretax income. Production tax credits in 2016 and 2015 are probably going to comparable since we had all of our Bison Wind facility in service at the end of 2014. Jay Dobson And then last one. As you think about sort of the acquisitions for U.S. Water and for ALLETE Clean Energy, maybe just talk about sort of what you expect out of acquisitions. Sort of vis-à-vis, I’m just measuring it sort of brutally if you will versus the U.S. Water, which was sort of a big addition, but not a lot of earnings. Steve DeVinck Well, we haven’t really changed our view on size of transaction at ACE. So our size of transaction is $50 million to $150 million plus or minus in that range, but we’d continue to try to pursue it. We had some smaller acquisitions at ACE of course but that’s kind of our focus and as I expressed earlier these broad range of renewable’s are still on the table, so we are not signally looking at Wind in that case. With respect to the U.S. Water tuck-ins if you will, those are likely to be smaller in nature sort of in the $5 million to $50 million range. As we think about our strategic acquisition there, there is a number of factors that come into the strategy in terms of geography and where we want U.S. Water to play and then those opportunities might present themselves. So that’s kind of the range. Both companies have a decent sort of deal flow with strategy to acquire. We also hope on the U.S. Water side accordance, we’d expect organic growth as you know. I think in excess of energy and water, it’s very important and in growing the final expectations are growing and so we just see greater demand for that also. And so organic growth is the part of U.S. Waters go forward strategy as well. Jay Dobson No, that’s great. And then actually just one last question on the Boswell proceeding. The delay for initial comments to August 16, what’s behind that? I mean I recall there was a January date which was extended to February, actually to today and then late yesterday, they extend to August 16. Is it work flow? What sort of driving that? Steve DeVinck Well, we haven’t had any direct conversation with the Department of Commerce regarding that, but I suspect there is a workflow and demand on resources issue down there with the Public Utilities Commission and also with the Department of Commerce. So there is of course a lot of work going on in a number of utilities with projects and with the filings. As you know with regards to Minnesota and what Minnesota is up to on energy policy. So I think it’s largely around sort of demands and resources basically and that would be the basis for their extension. Jay Dobson Got you. And we sort of put that together with EITE and rejecting – although rejected without prejudice and now this delay understanding in response to an earlier question, you indicated you will have more commentary and update on sort of outlook for rate case in 2016 this year – on the first quarter call. How do you think about those two? Obviously, both could be considered context of a broader rate case and at least as an outsider, it looks like on both issues for workflow or whatever the commission sort of kick in the can down the road. Al Hodnik Well, as I said with respect to EITE in the legislation that the legislature passed and the governor signed, we felt we got a fair hearing from the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, almost an 8-hour in length hearings. One of longer hearings that I recall they were very deliberative. There were many good questions that were raised around the EITE. And in the last analysis, since sort of rejecting that petition unanimously, but without prejudice. That’s an important distinction. They more or less want us to go back and identify additional cost benefit relative to the EITE. They provided many good examples of areas of interest of theirs at least. And so we are going to go back with our stakeholders and work with them on that and draw some conclusions as to how we want to approach the EITE on going forward. Could EITE and depreciation and all that end up in the rate case? I suppose it could, but as Steve said earlier, we have a strategy rate now that really depends on cost reduction in ROE improvement in the near term. It also sort of expecting load growth to materialize and we are watching that very closely because lastly taconite nominations and so all of that kind of rules together. But to the extent, could it all fold in together? It certainly could. Is that what the commission and the DoC are necessarily driving towards? I don’t know that I could say that. Jay Dobson That’s great, Al. Thanks for the insight, Steve. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon from KeyBanc. Your line is open. Paul Ridzon Just a follow up. You are beginning of the call you talked about some gives and takes and came back with around 306 ongoing number, wasn’t it about $0.05 of FERC’s reserves that you took out of period? Steve DeVinck Yes, from prior year. That’s probably about what it was probably about a nickel related to prior years. Paul Ridzon So 311 is probably another way at looking at ongoing earnings? Steve DeVinck That’d be another way of looking at it. Yes. Paul Ridzon Okay. Thanks to clarify. Thank you. Operator Thank you. And there is no further questions in queue. I’d like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks. Al Hodnik Well, thank you everyone for being with us and thanks for your confidence and investment with us again. Steve and I look forward to seeing many of you in March 3, in New York. And I certainly will be on the road throughout the year here sharing the ALLETE story. Thanks for spending time with us this morning. Operator Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today’s conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) So our reproduction policy is as follows: You may quote up to 400 words of any transcript on the condition that you attribute the transcript to Seeking Alpha and either link to the original transcript or to www.SeekingAlpha.com. All other use is prohibited. 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FirstEnergy (FE) Charles E. Jones on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Operator Greetings and welcome to the FirstEnergy Corp. Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Meghan Beringer, Director of Investor Relations for FirstEnergy Corp. Thank you. You may begin. Meghan Geiger Beringer – Director-Investor Relations Thank you, Adam, and good morning. Welcome to FirstEnergy’s fourth quarter earnings call. We will make various forward-looking statements today regarding revenues, earnings, performance, strategies and prospects. These statements are based on current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such statements can be found on the Investor section of our website under the Earnings Information link and in our SEC filings. We will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are also available on our website. Please note that on the Investor Relations page of our website we have also included a slide presentation that will follow this morning’s discussions. Participating in today’s call are Chuck Jones, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Pearson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Leila Vespoli, Executive Vice President, Markets and Chief Legal Officer; Donnie Schneider, President of FirstEnergy Solutions; Jon Taylor, Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer; Steve Staub, Vice President and Treasurer and Irene Prezelj, Vice President, Investor Relations. Now I’d like to turn the call over to Chuck Jones. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Thanks, Meghan. Good morning, everyone. I’m glad you’re able to join us. I’m excited to share the results from an important and productive year for FirstEnergy. In 2015 we made tremendous progress on major initiatives across our company. We put a number of obstacles behind us and completed critical work necessary to implement our regulated growth strategy going forward. At the same time, we consistently met our financial commitments to you. Last night we reported operating earnings of $0.58 per share for the fourth quarter and $2.71 per share for the year. These results, which reflect improved operations at our Competitive business, as well as growth in our Transmission business are above our initial guidance range for 2015, and in line with the revised estimates that we provided during our third quarter call despite the mild weather we experienced in the fourth quarter. For the first quarter of 2016, we have provided operating earnings guidance of $0.75 to $0.85 per share. As we will discuss later, we intend to provide additional guidance once we have an outcome in our Ohio Electric Security Plan. Before we move to Jim’s financial review, I’ll take a few minutes to discuss the key events from 2015. First, we removed regulatory uncertainty and important steps to position our regulated utilities for growth with the conclusion of rate cases in West Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Resolving these cases allows us to plan for additional infrastructure and reliability investments at those utilities. In Pennsylvania, we took that next step by filing Long Term Infrastructure Improvement Plans for each of our four operating companies in October. These plans, which were approved by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission last week, outline a projected increase in capital investment of nearly $245 million over five years to help strengthen, upgrade and modernize our Pennsylvania distribution systems. Yesterday, we filed for approval to implement a distribution system improvement charge at each of the four operating companies, which will allow us to recover quarterly costs associated with the capital projects approved in the LTIIPs. In Ohio, we achieved an important milestone for our latest Electric Security Plan by reaching a settlement agreement with the staff of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio and 16 other parties, including EnerNOC, an energy management solutions provider, Ohio Partners for Affordable Energy, a low income customer advocacy group, and IGS Energy, an independent energy supplier. The agreement outlines the ambitious steps to safeguard Ohio customers against retail price increases and volatility in future years, deploy new energy efficiency programs, and provide a clear path to a cleaner energy future by reducing carbon emissions. Our settlement includes an eight-year retail rate stability rider associated with the proposed Purchased Power Agreement. This provision will help protect customers against rising retail prices and market volatility while helping preserve vital base load power plants that serve Ohio customers and provide thousands of jobs in the state. The PPA includes the Sammis Plant in Stratton, Ohio, the Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station in Oak Harbor, Ohio, which recently received approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a 20-year license extension, and a portion of the output of two OVEC plants. The procedural schedule for our Ohio case is nearly complete, with hearings concluded, initial briefs filed, and reply briefs due next Friday. A decision from the PUCO is expected in March. Clearly, there is a lot of talk about the PPA as all interested parties seek to have their voices heard. We firmly believe that our plan serves the best interests of Ohio customers and Ohio communities while supporting competitive markets in the state and PJM. This generation will continue to be offered into PJM’s energy and capacity markets, and the PPA will have no impact on our standard service offer or customers’ ability to shop for their retail electric supply. In fact, we expect that the output from these plants will be treated no differently than the 20% of regulated generation that currently clears in the PJM markets, and that 20% does not include imports into PJM, which from MISO would be primarily regulated generation. I’m sure you’ll have lots of questions about the legal and regulatory process, and Leila’s standing by to share our perspective during the Q&A. We believe our plan is the right one for Ohio, and we remain very optimistic in the outcome, both in Ohio and at FERC. Let’s turn to our Transmission business. We just passed the halfway point of the first phase of our Energizing the Future, transmission investment initiative to meet the reliability needs of our customers and communities. We remain on track to meet our target of $4.2 billion in spending during the 2014 through 2017 timeframe. Consistent with our plan, we spent $2.4 billion in 2014 and 2015, including $986 million last year, on projects to address service reliability, grid modernization and growth. We completed major initiatives to address last year’s Northeast Ohio plant deactivations, and brought online critical new infrastructure to support midstream gas operations in our region. Work in 2016 is expected to include $1 billion in investments on projects such as synchronous condensers at our Eastlake Plant, new line construction projects in West Virginia and New Jersey, Static Var Compensator projects in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and West Virginia, and several new substations, line rebuilds and reconductoring projects. While expansion in the shale markets has cooled, we expect investments over the next several years of about $150 million for work that is already in the pipeline. We also addressed several matters in 2015 that support future investment in this important long-term growth platform. During the fourth quarter, FERC approved our settlement for a forward-looking formula rate structure at our ATSI subsidiary which permits more timely recovery of our investments. In addition, in June we filed to create a new subsidiary named Mid-Atlantic Interstate Transmission, or MAIT. This subsidiary would hold the transmission assets of Met-Ed, Penelec and JCP&L and facilitate new investments that can improve service reliability for those customers. Our proposal is on FERC’s agenda for tomorrow and we are seeking approval from both the Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission and the New Jersey Bureau of Public Utilities by the middle of the year. These structural changes are important steps to ensure timely recovery of our investments and set the stage for continued growth through our Energizing the Future transmission initiative. Turning to our Competitive operations, the PJM capacity market reforms approved by FERC have already begun to have a positive impact on the capacity auction process, although the markets continue to fall well short of being compensatory for long-lived capital assets like base load generation units. Our revised competitive strategy, focusing on stabilizing the business by reducing risk, also produced positive results. In 2015, we sold 75 million megawatt-hours while significantly reducing our exposure to weather-sensitive load and executing a rigorous commitment to economically dispatching our units. As a result, we mitigated the impact of severe weather in the first quarter of 2015 and achieved adjusted EBITDA of $949 million. This is in line with the revised guidance that we provided in October and reflects solid operational results as well as the impact of our Cash Flow Improvement Project. We are holding off on providing adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2017 and 2018 until our Analyst Meeting following the PUCO decision in Ohio. However, we are reaffirming both our 2016 adjusted EBITDA guidance range for the Competitive business of $950 million to $1.05 billion, and our expectation that the business will be cash flow positive each year through at least 2018. Before I move from our Competitive segment, I’ll mention that given the significant decline in the global coal market, we impaired our investment in the Signal Peak mine, resulting in a $362 million pre-tax noncash charge, which Jim will cover in more detail. Finally, I’ll spend a few moments discussing our Cash Flow Improvement Plan and other financial matters. We took a very important step to improve our financial metrics and balance sheet in 2015 through the launch of the Cash Flow Improvement Project. This initiative began in the spring, with a goal to capture meaningful and sustainable savings opportunities and process improvements across the company while continuing to fully meet the needs of our customers, our organization and our employees. I’m very pleased with the results of this effort to-date. We are on track to capture $155 million in savings this year and $240 million annually by 2017, up from our initial goal of $200 million over the timeframe. The results from this initiative will allow us to essentially hold our O&M flat through 2017. We put a lot of risk behind us in 2015, including key initiatives that provide our company with greater strength and flexibility as we pursue our regulated growth plans. I’m also gratified by the response from the rating agencies. In December, citing our shift in strategy and more credit friendly business risk profile, Fitch revised its outlook from stable to positive. Days later, Moody’s affirmed its Baa3 rating with a stable outlook for FirstEnergy Corp., FES and Allegheny Energy Supply, citing our Ohio ESP settlement. Over the past year, I’ve gotten to know many of you and I’ve shared my leadership philosophy, including my commitment to make our company more transparent. I hope you’ve seen that in action over the past year. I’ve told you one of our primary objectives is to improve the quality of our earnings. This year, two significant noncash adjustments got in the way. The annual mark-to-market for pension and OPEB will remain an annual adjustment, either up or down, and the impairment of the Signal Peak coal mine is required, given the current market for coal and the fact that this isn’t a core asset for us. Outside of these two items, earnings quality in 2015 was very solid, and is supported with operational cash flows that showed a $700 million improvement over 2014. We are making solid progress, and once we have an outcome in our Ohio ESP, we should be in a position to provide 2016 full-year earnings expectations and shed more light on the next couple of years, including our regulated growth projections and any future equity needs to support our growth initiatives. It remains our priority to continue strengthening our balance sheet and further de-risk our Competitive business. These steps will help ensure we are well positioned to pursue the next period of regulated growth and success, benefiting our 6 million customers and the local economies we serve, our investors and our employees. Now I’ll turn the call over to Jim for a brief review of the quarter. As always, we reserved plenty of time for your questions before the end of the hour. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Thanks, Chuck, and good morning, everyone. As always, I will remind you that detailed information about the quarter can be found in the consolidated report that was posted to our website yesterday evening. We also welcome your questions during the Q&A or following the call. Our fourth quarter operating earnings of $0.58 per share compares to $0.80 per share in the fourth quarter of 2014. On a GAAP basis, we recorded a loss of $0.53 per share for the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to a loss of $0.73 per share during the same period last year. 2015 fourth quarter GAAP results include special items totaling $1.11 per share. I’ll spend a few moments on two of those items before moving to the review of operating results. The first of these is the impairment charge related to our investment in the Signal Peak mine. As Chuck mentioned earlier on the call, given the weak market for coal globally, in the fourth quarter we wrote off our investment in Global Holding, the parent company of Signal Peak, resulting in a noncash pre-tax charge of $362 million or $0.56 per share, which reduced the value of this investment to zero. As some of you may remember, back in 2011, FirstEnergy sold a portion of its ownership interest in Signal Peak, receiving $258 million in cash proceeds and recognizing a $370 million after-tax gain which included a sizeable step-up in the one-third interest we retained. Presently, the mine remains operational and FirstEnergy continues to provide a full guarantee on Global Holding’s $300 million term loan. Since this investment is no longer a strategic fit for FirstEnergy, we have moved the earnings associated with Signal Peak from our Competitive segment to Corporate/Other for all periods. The second special item is the $0.35 per share annual pension and OPEB mark-to-market adjustment, another noncash item. As discussed in our third quarter call, we anticipated this charge given the plan’s investment performance, which was partially offset by a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate. I will note that for 2016 we have $381 million in required minimum pension funding, with $160 million already contributed to the plan last month. Let’s spend some time walking through the fourth quarter drivers by business units, followed by a brief review of the full year. In our Distribution business total deliveries decreased 6% in the quarter or 2% on a weather-adjusted basis. Residential sales decreased 10.6% and commercial sales decreased 3.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. Our region saw the mildest fourth quarter temperatures in at least 35 years, with heating degree days that were nearly 30% below both last year and normal. The decrease in customer use also reflects the adoption of energy efficient lighting and the impact of other energy efficiency measures. We continue to analyze these efficiency trends and we plan to discuss the expected impact on our load forecast over the next few years when we hold our Analyst Meeting. Sales to industrial customers decreased 3.9% in the quarter as a result of lower usage from our steel, mining, chemical, electrical equipment and manufacturing customers, partially offset by increased usage from the shale gas and automotive sectors. Distribution results were also impacted by higher operating expenses, which included planned reliability spend in the quarter, primarily at JCP&L. In our Transmission business fourth quarter operating earnings increased as a result of higher revenue associated with a higher rate base and ATSI’s forward-looking rate structure, which became effective in January 2015, partially offset by a lower return on equity at ATSI as part of its comprehensive settlement that was approved by FERC in October. In our Competitive business, we recorded strong fourth quarter operating earnings as higher commodity margin was offset with higher operating expenses. The impact of lower contract sales was offset by higher capacity revenues, lower purchased power, fuel and transmission expenses, and increased sales to the wholesale market, reflecting our more open position. Operating costs for the Competitive business were higher in the fourth quarter of 2015, primarily due to expenses related to the nuclear refueling outage at Beaver Valley Unit 2. Finally, at Corporate, a higher effective income tax rate and higher interest and operating expenses reduced operating earnings by $0.08, in line with our expectations. Now I’ll take a couple of minutes to discuss full year results and review the key earnings drivers for 2015. Operating earnings were $2.71 per share compared to $2.56 in 2014. GAAP earnings were $1.37 per share in 2015 compared to $0.71 in the prior year. At our Regulated Distribution utilities, 2015 operating earnings were in line with our guidance. The net benefit of resolved rate cases and generally favorable weather was offset primarily by higher operating expenses associated with planned reliability maintenance. Total distribution deliveries decreased about 1% compared to 2014. In the Industrial segment sales declined primarily due to decreased steel and mining production. Sales to residential and commercial customers were essentially flat compared to the prior year. In the Regulated Transmission segment, operating earnings increased primarily as a result of a higher rate base and a forward-looking rate structure at ATSI in the company’s Regulated Transmission business. In our Competitive business, operating earnings increased significantly, primarily due to improved commodity margin related to higher capacity prices. Adjusted EBITDA was $949 million in line with our expectations. You’ll recall that we began the effort to reposition our sales portfolio in the second quarter of 2014. Our total retail customer count at the end of 2015 was 1.6 million, a decrease of 445,000 customers from December 31, 2014. We sold about 75 million megawatt hours in 2015, including 68 million megawatt hours of contract sales and an additional 7 million megawatt hours of wholesale. We currently have about 61 million megawatt hours committed for 2016 and for 2017 about 38 million megawatt hours are committed, or about half of our expected generation resources. The Ohio PPA would add approximately 23 million megawatt hours on an annual basis, which would essentially close our sales positions through the first half of 2017. In the Corporate segment, 2015 operating earnings were consistent with our guidance, reflecting higher interest and operating expenses as well as a more normal effective income tax rate. 2015 should be recognized as a pivotal year for our company. We were able to raise the operating earnings guidance that we provided, reduce risk and build a solid platform for regulated growth. We’re confident that our efforts will help us reach our goal of creating long-term value for FirstEnergy shareholders. Now I’d like to open the call up for your questions. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Hi. Good morning. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC I wanted to discuss transmission spending opportunities. In your fact book I think it’s slide 45, you talk about a review of the reliability in your ATSI system. And maybe that should be phrased more broadly, but just wanted to check-in in terms of as you assess transmission needs, replacement of 69-kV lines, 138-kV lines, what is your sense in terms of the potential for additional spending to enhance reliability in transmission in particular? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, Stephen, we’ve talked about this a little bit in the past. Our team has identified in excess of $15 billion worth of projects that we could execute, all on our existing 24,000 miles of transmission lines. And that’s our focus. And what we do with those projects is we prioritize them in the best way to drive benefits for customers. And my view is the best investments we can make are the ones that customers are willing to pay for and that you all are willing to invest in. So the opportunity is there for us to make these kind of investments for a long time; the ability to add on an annual basis to that is a little bit challenged by the availability of a transmission construction work force in our country. So I wouldn’t expect that you would see a huge increase on an annual basis, but you could extrapolate out quite a bit into the future how long we can continue to execute this program. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC That’s very helpful. That makes sense. And wanted to shift over to the Ohio PPA discussions. I’m sure there will be many questions on this. At the FERC level, I guess comments are due February 23 or thereabouts, and I know this is obviously not your preferred outcome, but if the FERC case were to go in opposition to the PPAs, could you talk a little bit about what the implications might be, understanding again that that’s not your preferred outcome? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Oh hi, Stephen. This is Leila. So I don’t think it would be the likely outcome either, but – so let me spend a couple of seconds just kind of recount for the group what that would have actually entailed to get to that place. So right now we have an affiliate waiver and the basis upon which it was granted, those items have not changed. If you think about it, Ohio still, the customers are not captive. They can shop. There hasn’t been a law change. That means that the Ohio Commission is still in order to approve the PPA would have to find that the ESP is better than the MRO. They would still be protecting customers. So if you look at those kind of things, again I don’t think that it’s something that the FERC should rescind, if you would. But if they were to do that, what would happen – they would likely apply the Edgar rule. So you could look at the different provisions of how they look at that. There’s several ways to comply with the Edgar rule and one of them looks at non-price terms and conditions. So we would be looking at a hearing dealing with our PPA, and I think there are a lot of things that could be said around the non-term price and conditions that would allow the pricing to stand as well. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Understood. Thank you very much. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gregg Orrill from Barclays. Please go ahead. Gregg Gillander Orrill – Barclays Capital, Inc. Yeah. Thank you. Two questions. The first one is regarding the Competitive business guidance for 2016. And I guess it was the same as it was in the third quarter look, despite the fact that wholesale power prices are down. Could you talk about what the drivers there were? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. Sure, Gregg. This is Donnie. If you take a look at our slide 104 of the fact book you can see the EBITDA guidance. And as you clearly indicated, the fall-off in prices, we reflected that in our open position. We’re down about $3 there. But we’ve also lowered our costs, especially our fossil fuel. We went back and took another hard look at some of the things we’d done in CFIP. We were able to lower that. Net of those two things, the lower revenue from the decline in the open position, net of what we’ve been able to do on the cost side, our commodity margin’s only down about $15 million, which is well in the range of our EBITDA. Gregg Gillander Orrill – Barclays Capital, Inc. Okay, thanks. And then regarding the equity needs, can you talk about your thoughts there in light of some of the write-offs and funding needs that you have? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, I’ve said pretty consistently that we have set a goal of strengthening our balance sheet and getting to where we need to get with the rating agencies without having to use any equity to do that. And I just don’t believe that that is the intent of shareholder equity. We’ve worked very hard this past year. I talked about the results of CFIP. We’ve also made improvements in other parts of our operation, and then we’ve got the entire Ohio ESP to get a resolution on before I think we’re in any position to talk about what future equity needs might be. We talked about $245 million of incremental investment in Pennsylvania distribution. Under the Ohio ESP there’s an extension of the DCR rider plus potential opportunities to invest in increasing the smart distribution network in Ohio. Along with transmission with ATSI, transmission with MAIT, what we need to do and what we plan to do is communicate to you what type of regulated growth rate we’re going to strive for going forward, once we have these last remaining questions done. And then any equity needs are going to be driven off of that. They are not going to be driven off of a need for equity to deal with any of the financial issues that we’ve been trying to wrestle to the ground this last year. They will only be used for growth, and that’s our intent. Gregg Gillander Orrill – Barclays Capital, Inc. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon from KeyBanc. Please go ahead. Paul T. Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. What’s your current thinking around when the Ohio Commission will rule, and kind of what’s your outlook for potential that – that schedule getting delayed? And if it were delayed beyond the PJM auction, how would it impact your bidding behavior? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, as I said in my comments, we’re expecting an answer from the Ohio Commission in March. And so I don’t think it’s going to affect our bidding behavior one way or another. Our Competitive generating business bids in our Competitive fleet. We have regulated generation in West Virginia already that is bid by a regulated generation group. The two do not talk, as required by FERC’s Standards of Conduct. This generation will get bid in by one of those two groups, depending on which side of the fence it’s on. Paul T. Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Can you remind us what the original investment in Signal Peak was? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer We made an original cash contribution, about $150 million. Paul T. Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. And you sold a piece for what, you said $230 million? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Yes. That’s – we sold 50% of our interest and we had a cash proceeds of about $234 million. Paul T. Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Okay. Thank you very much. I’m good. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Eggers from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) Hey. Good morning, guys. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Hey, Dan. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) First question just on – a couple of cash flow questions for you guys, first off. How should we think about bonus depreciation affecting kind of the cash flows coming back in? And how does that get treated at the different utilities/transmission assets as far as adjusting rate base? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Dan, this is Jim. Bonus depreciation, we were already in a large NOL position through the 2018 and 2019 period, so this is just going to extend that beyond 2021. Obviously these years will change somewhat with the approval of the PPA scenario. On the earnings side, it’s really a modest impact from a rate base reduction. We’ll see a little bit on the transmission side and certain of our other jurisdictions that have formula like rate recovery such as the DCR in Ohio. But I would say the impact to our earnings rate base is going to be minimal. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) So should we assume – what kind of cash tax rate are you guys assuming through 2021? Are you at an AMT or sub-AMT level then? K. Jon Taylor – Chief Accounting Officer, VP & Controller Hey, Dan. This is Jon Taylor. We’re at the AMT level. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) Okay. Got it. And then I guess on the pension side, did I read it correctly from the last quarter slides, this quarter slides, that your pension expenses are up about $55 million in 2016 versus 2015 on a pre-tax basis? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Yeah, Dan. Two things that are driving that; first is we had a 25 basis point decrease in the return on assets. So we took that down from 7.75% to 7.5%. And then we also saw a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate, which would increase our interest costs. So the two of those was about $50 million. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) Okay. Got it. And I guess if we look at the kind of, from the K, the five-year funding plans or obligations for pension are up about $600 million through the five-year running period from last K to this K. Do you guys see any funding obligations around that? Or is it – because this is kind of beyond 2016 we’ll wait and see what happens in the interest rate environment between here and there? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Dan, what we have out there, and you’re right, our five-year required contributions are about $500 million higher than what the five-year required contributions were in the 2014 10-K. Our actuary Aon, they recalibrate that annually. And at this point these are fundings that we would be required to make. As we said, we have a $381 million contribution required in 2016. We’ve already made $160 million in January. 2017, we have a $439 million pension contribution. That’s down somewhat from where we were in the 2014 10-K where we had $555 million, but again that’s associated with our actuary recalibrating when our payments are required and some of those payments were moved out to a future year. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) Okay. Thank you. And I guess just last one on the ESP side in Ohio. Does it become a friction point where you have to have a decision in order to implement rates before ESP3 goes away? And how much time or how much cushion do you guys need between PUCO making a decision and you guys being ready to implement? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer So, yes. So it does become that point, but I think it’s going to be a moot question because I fully expect the Commission to act in March. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) So a decision in March gives you plenty of time. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Correct. Daniel L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA ) LLC (Broker) Okay. Very good. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Please go ahead. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Yeah. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Yeah. We can here you. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Excellent. So let me just follow up on what Dan was asking there. First, on the bonus depreciation point, can you elaborate a little bit more on the earnings impact rather than the cash flow? And think about what it does separately to the Transmission and the Distribution side as you think about perhaps the next round of rate case and/or FERC filing? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer At this point, Julien, I would say that the impact on each of the segments would just be pennies. It would not be material at all. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Got it. Could you elaborate why that would be, just be clear, just as you think about? Is that principally because you haven’t filed, or you don’t necessary have a meaningful distribution case contemplated? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Yeah. At this point on the Distribution side, it would only impact the utilities that we have formula-like rates considering the DCR in Ohio. We have rates that are in effect in all of our other jurisdictions will likely be looking to go in for rates in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, but that will not be – we won’t see changes to our rates probably until the 2017 timeframe at this point, but we’ll give you more clarification on that when we have our Analyst Day Meeting. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC And just to clarify Analyst Day expectations, if there is indeed an issue at FERC, I suppose a, you would expect to host your Analyst Day would be in terms of providing guidance, should we continue to expect EBITDA guidance kind of status quo as you laid out? If the 206 is successful. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Yes. Well, I think here’s where we’re at. We’re going to wait till we get the outcome in Ohio. Once we have that then we’re going to give you a little clearer guidelines on what we’re expecting in terms of our Analyst Meeting. One way or another we’re going to be giving you guidance for 2016 that includes the ESP or doesn’t include the ESP based on where we’re at, at that point in time. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Got it. And then lastly on the Signal Peak assets, what’s the situation in terms of the servicing the debt, just the guarantee there? If you can just elaborate in terms of the assets itself? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Okay, Julien. This is Jim. From servicing the debt, the mine continues to service that debt. The only time that we would have a change there is if we become more of a full-time owner of the mine if we would have control of over 50% of that. The first step we would have to do is likely consolidate that debt on to our balance sheet. Right now it’s not consolidated because we’re only a 33% owner. And then ultimately if there was a capital call that the other owners were not able to fulfill that would also likely require us to make that capital call. At the end, of that $300 million, $100 million is purely ours because we own a 33% interest in that and once we understand fully what happens to the mine, if it would happen to shut down then we would be responsible to fill that obligation to the banks. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC The balance of the obligation. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer That’s correct. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Great. Thank you so much. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Good morning. How are you? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Just on, a quick question here. In terms of the PPA associated generation, how much of that if you could remind me, cleared in the 2018/2019 auction? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. This is Donny, Paul. So Sammis and Beaver Valley it all cleared in the 2018/2019 auction. I’m sorry, Sammis and Davis-Besse, it all cleared in the 2018/2019 auction. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. And then you guys brought up sort of an interesting issue here in terms of how your generation in the PPA would be similar to regulated generation, et cetera. And I don’t recall when the Harrison Plant acquisition by the regulated affiliate in Virginia was – or West Virginia, excuse me, was being purchased, this much of an issue in terms of opposition, et cetera, from generators, et cetera. Why do you think in this case it’s being so much more of an issue than it would be in the Harrison case when it sounds to me, and correct me if I’m wrong, the economics would kind of be similar in terms of the impact on the market? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director I am at a complete loss for why it is such a big issue for others, because I do think it is financially the same as what happened with Harrison. These units will no longer supply retail load. They will no longer supply polar load. They are not going to influence the competitive market in any way. So I’m at a complete loss for why it has generated such adamant opposition other than potentially misery loves company. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer And if I could add on just a little bit to that. So if you think about the parade of horribles that EPSA and others highlighted in their complaint to FERC, they talked about if you let these generating units look regulated, have in effect what they called an out of market subsidy, that would crash the marketplace. Well, if you think about PJM, as Chuck alluded to earlier, 20% of PJM is already regulated. And that doesn’t even include the FRR entities. And if you think about what they were talking about, the bidding aspect of this, it’s public information that prior to capacity performance three-quarters, so 75% of the megawatts in the PJM capacity auctions bid at zero. So they bid at price takers. And after CP it was about roughly half. But if you think about it with the new penalty, that what you associated with that penalty should kind of be your new zero. So I would suggest that the new price takers is actually even higher than 50%. So what that would suggest is some of the generators who actually filed this and complained so loudly saying that it was going to crash the market, they themselves actually bid into the capacity market at zero. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. Fair enough. And then just on the… James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Hey, Paul, and just to be clear on the capacity, I said it all cleared. In actuality when you look at our fact book on slide 119, you’d see that there were 525-megawatts in ATSI that did not clear. And… Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC I’m sorry. Go ahead. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer A slice of that may be at Sammis and Davis-Besse, but essentially it all cleared. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC What do you – why would a slice of it not (44:20), I guess? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Well, to the degree we bid all of our units on a curve, there could be a slice that didn’t clear. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. That would be Sammis and Davis-Besse? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Yeah, generally we bid all of our units on a curve, Paul. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. But I mean I guess what I’m wondering, though, is that of the PPA-affiliated plants, some of it may have cleared and some of it may not have cleared. Is that correct? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer It would not look any different than the rest of our unregulated plants, Paul. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. Just to get back to Julien’s question on the – just to make sure I understand on the Global Holding guarantee, the $300 million. It wasn’t clear to me exactly how much on the hook you guys are if the Signal Peak mine becomes uneconomic or unable to – and you don’t get the capital calls from third parties. How much would be the total risk that you guys may or may not have? I’m just – it wasn’t clear completely. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer The total amount would be $300 million, less any types of proceeds that we could get from the sale of the mine. So if we cannot sell the mine for anything, the maximum would be $300 million. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Assuming that there is some value to the mine, we would be able to use those proceeds to reduce that amount of exposure. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Great. Thanks so much. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Hey. Good morning. Just two quick questions I guess on the PPA is first, do you think FERC rules before the May PJM auction? And second, you had mentioned the waiver earlier, that you have a waiver between your utility and competitive generation. Is the waiver unique to a particular PPA or is it I guess for any PPA that goes between your utility and competitive businesses? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer This is Leila. So it covers all the transactions between the utilities and the affiliates. And again, the basis upon which it was granted, the circumstances haven’t changed. The Commission still retains the ability to protect customers. And I apologize, I forgot your first question? Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Just do you think FERC rules before the auction in May? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Oh, whether it will rule, I’m sorry. Yes. Nothing’s carved in stone and they don’t have to. EPSA asked for expedited treatment, but most people believe that they will act before the auction and probably act on the filed paper as opposed to holding a hearing. That would be my best guess. Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Just quickly then, has FERC ever reversed policy and revoked a waiver? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer I don’t know the entire history, but I could tell you what FERC has done with regard to captive customers and shopping. FERC on several occasions has been asked to kind of look behind the curtain and opine whether a state’s particular flavor of retail choice is what they would agree with or not. And FERC has consistently said no, as long as they’re not captive customers, as long as they can shop, then we’re not going to try and second guess what commissions do. Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Please go ahead. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Thanks. Hi, guys. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Hi. Sorry to go on the PPA question again, but I’m just trying to understand the other side. And I know this is clearly not the preferred path, but if the PPA does get cancelled for whichever partner or how it gets cancelled, I’m just trying to paint a picture first from an equity needs perspective and also from a strategic fit perspective. As in, if you do see the PPA getting cancelled, is there any view on how the equity need requirement changes, especially to support the credit? And secondly, strategically do you see this business as still a fit within FE? Or do you look to do an exit in some form at some point? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, first off we have not communicated any earnings guidance for full year 2016, whether the PPA gets done or not, and I’m not going to do that here this morning. What I’ve said is we will deal with that outcome when we have it, and we will communicate at that time what our earnings guidance for 2016 is, what our future growth plans for the utilities are, what our future equity needs might be, if anything, to support that growth. So I think you’re just going to have to be patient and wait for the outcome, and then we’ll tell you where we’re at at that point in time. And beyond that I’ve consistently said I think that Generation, Transmission and Distribution are all critical assets in terms of serving customers. And right now I don’t see any strategic change there for us. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Fair enough. And on the second question, if I look at the generation of the Competitive business and I look at the… Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director And I would remind you that in my remarks I told you that this business is generating positive EBITDA, positive cash flow through 2018 without any benefit from the Energy Security Plan. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Gotcha. And that’s a great lead-in actually to my second question which is, as I think about that positive free cash flow, I guess an important part of that is just the different channels that you sell your generation through. And LCI looks like an important piece of that puzzle. The range that you generally provide for LCI is in the zero to 20-terawatt hours of sales in that LCI direct. 2017 looks like it’s just at 5 terawatt hours right now. And clearly it’s early days and you’re waiting for the PPA. But is there – the reason why I’m focused on it is, the LCI price versus the spot price, there’s like almost a $20 per megawatt hour difference. So I’m just trying to put a lower bound on that LCI sale, as in, at a minimum what level do you see achieving at LCI or LCI channel sales in the 2016/2017 timeframe? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. So this is Donny. I think actually if you look at slide 104 in the fact book it shows LCI, MCI and mass market we’ve got 16.4 terawatt hours closed already for 2016 delivery. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) No, I’m looking at 2017 and LCI for 2017 is 5 terawatt hours which is what I’m looking at. Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. Oh, yeah sure. Yeah. We’ve got a ways to go there. LCI customers generally are shorter terms contracts compared to government aggregation for example. So it would not be unusual to be able to close 10 terawatt hours or 15 terawatt hours in a year prior to the delivery year. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Got you. And do you expect those prices to be at similar levels to where you currently cleared which is around $54 per megawatt hour, $55 per megawatt hour? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. That’s more difficult to say, because what you got to keep in mind embedded in that price is the price of capacity. So a customer in ATSI in the 2015/2016 timeframe is going to look different than a RTO customer and that’s going to look different than a customer in the 2017/2018 timeframe. So it’s very hard for us to say kind of what price we would end up locking those in at. What I would tell you is we would have consistent margins. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Got you. That’s very helpful. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Charles Fishman from Morningstar. Please go ahead. Charles Fishman – Morningstar Research Good morning. This will be quick I think. In comparing the fact sheets, it looks like the transmission spend you’re projecting a little up for 2016, lower in 2017. But nothing has changed with respect to Energizing the Future. I mean the overall project is pretty much on track from the way you initially set it up a couple of years ago, correct? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director That’s correct. Charles Fishman – Morningstar Research That’s the only question I had. Thank you. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director All right. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Okay, well there are no more questions in the queue. I’d just like to thank you all for your continued support. I look forward to getting our answer from Ohio here in a few weeks and then look forward to meeting you all face to face at the Analyst Meeting following that. Thank you. Operator Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude our teleconference for today. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) So our reproduction policy is as follows: You may quote up to 400 words of any transcript on the condition that you attribute the transcript to Seeking Alpha and either link to the original transcript or to www.SeekingAlpha.com. All other use is prohibited. 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