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SCANA’s (SCG) CEO Kevin Marsh on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Operator Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. I will be your conference facilitator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the SCANA Corporation Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded on Thursday, February 18, 2016. Anyone who does not consent to the taping may drop off the line. At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Susan Wright, Director of Financial Planning and Investor Relations. Susan Wright Thank you, and welcome to our analyst call. As you know, earlier today, we announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2015. Joining us on the call today are Jimmy Addison, SCANA’s Chief Financial Officer and Steve Byrne, Chief Operating Officer of SCE&G. During the call, Jimmy will provide an overview of our financial results and Steve will provide an update of our new nuclear project. After our comments, we will respond to your questions. The slides and the earnings release referenced to in this call are available at scana.com. Additionally, we post information related to our new nuclear project and other investor information directly to our Web site at scana.com. On SCANA’s homepage, there is a yellow box containing links to the new nuclear development and other Investor Information sections of the Web site. It is possible that some of the information that we will be posting from time-to-time may be deemed material information that has not otherwise become public. You can sign-up for e-mail alerts under the Investors section of scana.com to notify you when there is a new posting in the nuclear development and/or other Investor Information sections of the Web site. Finally, before I turn the call over to Jimmy, I would like to remind you that certain statements that may be made during today’s call are considered forward-looking statements and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties as shown on Slide 2. The Company does not recognize an obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Additionally, we may disclose certain non-GAAP measures during this presentation and the required Reg G information can be found in the Investor Relations section of our Web site under Webcasts & Presentations. I’ll now turn the call over to Jimmy. Jimmy Addison Thanks Susan, and thank you all for joining us today. I’ll begin our earnings discussion on Slide 3. GAAP earnings in the fourth quarter of 2015 were $0.69 per share, compared to $0.73 per share in the same quarter of 2014. The decrease in earnings in the fourth quarter is mainly attributable to the negative impacted weather on electric margins as well as on gas margins in our Georgia business. Lower gas margins also reflect $0.07 per share of loss margins due to the sale of CGT early in the year. These losses were partially offset by higher electric margins due primarily to a base load review act rate increase and customer growth as well as lower depreciation expense as a result of new depreciation study and lower O&M expense due primarily to labor savings and the impact of the sales of CGT during the first quarter of 2015. Note two that abnormal weather decreased electric margins by $0.14 per share and $0.02 per share versus normal in the fourth quarters of 2015 and 2014 respectively. Please turn to Slide 4. Earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2015 were $5.22 versus $3.79 in 2014. The improved results are mainly attributable to the net of tax gains on the sales of CGT and SCI, higher electric margins due primarily to a base load review act rate increase and customer growth, as well as lower depreciation expense and O&M as described earlier. These were partially offset by lower electric margins due to weather, lower gas margins primarily due to loss gas margins of $0.23 per share resulting from the sale of CGT and the impact of revenue on the Georgia business and normal increases in CapEx related items including interest, property taxes and share dilution. Although electric margins reflected a negative $0.13 per share due to weather year-over-year abnormal weather increased electric margins in both years accounting for $0.08 per share in 2015 compared to $0.21 in 2014. Slide 5, shows earnings on a GAAP adjusted weather normalized basis. Earnings in the fourth quarter of 2015 were $0.83 per share compared to $0.75 per share in the same quarter of 2014. Full year earnings were $3.73 per share in 2015 compared to $3.58 per share in the prior year. As a reminder GAAP adjusted weather normalized EPS excludes the impact of abnormal weather on electric margins and the net of tax gains on the sales of CGT and SCI from the first quarter of 2015. Abnormal weather on gas margins is not adjusted in this measure as gas margins weather normalized for the North and South Carolina businesses and the direct impact of abnormal weather on the Georgia business is generally insignificant. However, the extremely mild weather in the fourth quarter in 2015 was seen in the business’ stand alone results as I’ll discuss later. Now, on Slide 6, I’d like to briefly review results for our principle lines of business. On a GAAP basis South Carolina electric and gas companies’ fourth quarter 2015 earnings were down $0.01 per share compared to the same period of 2014. The decrease in earnings is due to lower electric margins due to abnormal weather and higher expenses related to our capital program including interest expense and property taxes. These decreases more than offset increases due to the continued recovery of financing cost through the BLRA customer growth in both the electric and gas businesses, the application of the previously mentioned new depreciation rates and lower P&M due primarily to labor savings. For the full year of 2015, earnings were higher by $0.12 per share due to increased electric margins primarily from the continued recovery of financing cost through the BRLA and customer growth, improved gas margins due to customer growth and the application of the new depreciation rates. These items were partially offset by the effective abnormal weather on electric margins and higher expenses related to our capital program including interest expense, property taxes, dilution and continued increases in depreciation exclusive of the impact of the depreciation study. Although weather in both years contributed favorably to electric margins versus normal. 2015 was milder than 2014 with weather contributing $0.08 of margin versus normal in 2015 compared to $0.21 in 2014. PSNC Energy reported earnings of $0.17 per share in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to $0.16 per share in the same quarter of the prior year primarily due to higher margins from customer growth. For the year-ended December 2015, earnings are $0.38 per share compared to $0.39 per share in the prior year. SCANA Energy our retail natural gas marketing business in Georgia saw the decrease in fourth quarter earnings of $0.06 per share in 2015 over the same quarter of last year primarily due to lower throughput and margins attributable to the extremely warm weather during the fourth quarter of 2015 as compared to 2014, partially offset by lower bad debt expense. For the 12 months ended December 31, 2015 earnings were down $0.05 per share compared to the same period of 2014, due to same drivers as the quarter. On a GAAP basis, SCANA’s corporate and other businesses reported a loss of $0.01 per share in the fourth quarter of 2015, compared to $0.03 in the comparative quarter of the prior year. Lower interest expense of the holding company and increased margins at our marketing business were primarily offset by foregoing earnings contributions from the subsidiaries that were sold during the fourth quarter of this year. For the 12 month period, these businesses reported earnings per share of $1.36 in 2015 compared to $0.01 loss in 2014. Excluding the net of tax gains on the sales of CGT and SCI of $1.41 per share, GAAP adjusted weather normalized EPS was down $0.04 from the prior year due primarily the foregone earnings from the sale of the businesses earlier this year offset by lower interest expense at the holding company and increased margins on our marketing business. I would now like to touch on economic trends in our service territory on Slide 7. In 2015, companies announced plans to invest over $2 billion with the expectation of creating over 6,000 jobs in our Carolinas territories. The Carolinas continue to be seen as a favorable business environment and we’re pleased by the continuous growth in our service territories. At the bottom of the slide, you can see the national unemployment rate along with the rates for the three states where SCANA has a presence and the SCE&G electric territory. South Carolinas unemployment rate is now at 5.5% and the rate in SCE&G’s electric territory is estimated at 4.7%. At the top of Slide 8 you can see the South Carolina employments statics as of December 2015 and 2014 over the course of 2015 South Carolinas unemployment rate has dropped over a percentage point from its level at the end of 2014. December of 2015 also marked all time highs for the number of South Carolinians employees and in the labor force. Our particular interest in the testing to our state strong economic growth almost 80,000 or 3.8% more south Carolinians are working today than a year ago. So another ways had the labor force not increased during 2015 the unemployment rate would be approximately 3%. The expansion of the labor force is simply evidence of the confidence of some of the workforce to reenter the market and the positive migration to the state of South Carolina. As depicted on the bottom of the slide United Van Lines recently released its annual mover study for 2015 with tracks migration patterns state to state. For the third consecutive year South Carolina finished ranked second in terms of domestic migration destinations co-operating our realized customer growth statistics. North Carolina has also been ranked in the top five for the last three years. Slide 9 presents customer growth and electric sales statistics. On the comp half of the slide is the customer growth rate for each of our regulated businesses. SCE&G’s electric business added customers at a year-over-year rate of 1.5%. Our regulated gas businesses in North and South Carolina added customers at a rate of 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. We continue to see very strong customer growth in our businesses and in the region. The bottom table outlines our actual and weather-normalized kilowatt hour sales for the 12 months ended December 31, 2015. Overall, weather-normalized total retail sales were up 1.3% on a 12-month ended basis. In conjunction with the continued improvement of economic conditions in South Carolina, the past few quarters have shown an accelerating improvement in usage in the residential market. And now please turn to Slide 10, which recaps our regulatory rate base and returns. The pie chart on the left presents the components of our regulated rate base of approximately $9.6 billion. As denoted in two shades of blue, approximately 86% of this rate base is related to the electric business. In the block on the right, you will see SCE&G’s base electric business in which we are allowed 10.25% return on equity. The earned return for the 12 months ended December 31, 2015 in the base electric business is approximately 9.75%, meeting our stated goal of earning a return of 9% or higher to prevent the need for non-BLRA related base rate increases during the peak nuclear construction years. We continue to be pleased with the execution of our strategy. As a reminder we are allowed a return on equity at 10.25% and 10.6% in our LDCs in South and North Carolina respectively. In response to the normal attrition in the earned returns in our North Carolina business, yesterday the PSNC notify the North Carolina utilities commission of its intention to file a rate case. We plan to file the detailed case within the next 60 days where more clarity will be provided. As you will recall in South Carolina if the earned ROE of the gas business for the 12 months ending in March falls outside of range of 50 basis points above or below the allowed ROE then we will have to adjust rates under the rate stabilization act in June. Slide 11 presents our CapEx forecast. This forecast reflects the Company’s current estimate of new nuclear spending through 2018 and has been updated to reflect what was filed in our quarterly BLRA report which also reflects the amended EPC that was announced in October of 2015. At the bottom of the slide, we have recapped the estimated new nuclear CWRP from July 1 through June 30 to correspond to the periods on which the BLRA rate increases are historically calculated. Slide 12 presents the transition payments information and an expected timeframe for our filing with the public service commission of South Carolina. Once these events are complete we will update the CapEx schedule and the corresponding financing plan. And now please turn to Slide 13, to review our estimated financing plan through 2018. As a reminder we have switched to open rocket purchases instead of issuing new shares to fulfill our 401k and DRIP plans at least until we have fully utilized the net cash proceeds from the sales of CGT and SCI. We do not anticipate the need for further equity issuances until 2017 and again the election of the fixed price option would likely changed planned equity issuances after 2016. Now these are our best estimates of incremental debt and equity issuances, it is unlikely that these issuances will occur in the exact amounts or timing as presented as they are subject to changes in our funding needs for planned project expenses. We continue to adjust the financing to match the related project CapEx on a 50/50 debt and equity basis. On Slide 14, we are reaffirming on 2016 GAAP adjusted weather-normalized earnings guidance as 3.90 per share to 4.10 per share with an internal target of $4 per share. We continue to be cautiously optimistic about our long-term view and are increasing the lower band of our long-term growth rate from 3% to 4%. We are also resetting base year to 2015 GAAP adjusted weather-normalized EPS of $3.73. Therefore our new GAAP adjusted weather-normalized annual growth guidance target will be to deliver 4% to 6% earnings growth over the three to five years using a base of 2015 GAAP adjusted weather-normalized EPS of 3.73. This increase represents our projected earnings momentum driven by our BLRA filings our stated goal to manage base retail electric returns and our view of the economy, balanced with our continued assumption of the impacts of energy conservation and efficiency standards. I also wanted to mention that earlier today we announced an increase of $0.12 in our dividend rate for 2016 to $2.30 per share a 5.5% increase. We continue to anticipate growing dividends fairly consistent with earnings while staying within our stated pay out policy of 55% to 60%. And finally on Slide 15, we are very pleased to report that in late December we successful completed the syndication of an extended credit facility. The additional liquidity is important to our nuclear construction project and accelerated CapEx spending at PSNC. The committed lines of credit now totaled $2 billion. I want to thank our banks for their enthusiastic support of our liquidity needs and therefore the support of our nuclear expansion plans. We are pleased that we continue to receive and excellent response for a nuclear construction from our equity and debt investors as well as our banks. And I’ll now turn the call over to Steve to provide an update on our nuclear project. Steve Byrne Thanks, Jim. I’d like to begin by addressing the status of the settlement with the consortium. Slide 16 presents the outline we have shown in previous discussions as a recap. As you may be aware, Westinghouse closed in the transaction to acquire Stone & Webster from CB&I at the end of December and for beginning work as self-contracted construction manager at the new nuclear construction site on January the 4th. We are continuing our analysis of the fixed price option and will include the input from Fleur as they progress. As a reminder we have until November 1st of this year to unilaterally elect the fixed price option or not and we plan to take as much time as needed to ensure that we make the most prudent decision. Regardless of which scenario we chose one the decision has been made we will file our petition with the public service commission to amend the capital cost and schedule for the project. As Jimmy said earlier we expect to reach a conclusion in the second quarter. Moving onto some of the activities at the new nuclear construction site, Slide 17 presents an aerial photo of the site from September of 2016. I’ve provided this photo to give you a view of the layout of the site. And I’ve labeled both Units 2 and 3, as well as many other areas that make up what we call the table top. On Slide 18, you can see a picture of the Unit 2 Nuclear Island and this picture you can see module CA20 on the right hand side of the slide along with the containment vessel being number 1 which has placed on and welded to the lower bowl. Several rewards structural modules have now been placed inside the Unit 2 containment vessel. As we’ll discuss shortly you can also see the beginnings of the shale building as three courses have now been placed. Slide 19 shows a picture of the Unit 3 Nuclear Island. Module CA04 was placed inside the containment vessel lower bowl back in June and the auxiliary building walls continue to build. As you’ll see shortly we are making progress with the fabrication replacement of containment vessels structural modules on both units. Slide 20 presents a schematic view of the five large structural modules that are located inside the containment vessel. I’ve shown this schematic numerous times before because this expanded view gives you a better feel for how CA01 through 05 fits spatially inside of the containment vessel. As you may know, we have now placed CA01, CA04 and CA05 for Unit 2 and CA04 for Unit 3. Slide 21 shows a picture of the Unit 2 CA02 module, CA02 is a wall section that forms part of the in-containment refueling water storage tank. As mentioned last quarter, CA02 has now structurally complete and awaiting installation. Slide 22 shows a picture of the Unit 2, CA03 which is the west wall of the in-containment, we’re filling water storage tank. 15 of CA03’s 17 sub modules are on site and 12 are now on our assembly platform. Slide 23 shows a picture of the Unit 3 module CA05, this module comprises one of the major walls section within the containment vessel, fabrication and the Unit 3 CA05 has been completed and that has been staged outside of the module assembly building or MAB. Slide 24 shows a picture of the Unit 3 CA20 which is the auxiliary building module that will be located at outside and adjacent to the containment vessel. 68 of the 72 sub modules are on site and 20 of those sub modules have been upended on the construction platform for fabrication in the MAB. Slide 25 shows a picture of the beginnings of the Unit 3 module CA01, module CA01 houses the steam generators and the pressurizer and then forms the refueling canal inside the containment vessel. Currently we have 15 of 47 sub modules on site and 3 of those sub modules are upright and being loaded together in the MAB. Slide 26 shows the progress of the Unit 2 Shield Building panels, a first 6 panel course displays during the first half of 2015 and the fourth quarter of 2015, the second 6 panel course was set on top of the first course and then at the beginning of this month we placed the third 6 panel course. As shield building panels are placed and welded together concrete has core insight of the panel to create the shield building. Concrete has been placed in the first two courses. Slide 27 shows a couple of pictures from the Unit 2 Turbine Pedestal concrete placement from December 25, overall more than 2,300 cubic yards of concrete was placed over the course of about 20 hours. Slide 28 shows a picture of the single phase for the 230 ton Unit 2 Main Transforms. There are four such transformers for each unit and here you can see one of the four being rigged for replacement adjacent to the Unit 2 turbine build each unit will have these four plus 6 other transformers also in placing the two and all time then received in the three. On Slide 29, you see the New Nuclear CapEx projected of the vessel construction. This chart shows CWRP during the years 2008 to 2020, reflecting the Q4 2015 BLRA quarterly report that we filed in February. As a reminder, the BLRA report now reflects the cost from the October 2015 amended EPC. As you can see, we’re probably in the middle of the peak nuclear construction period the green line represents the related to actual and projected customer rate increases under the BLRA and is associated with the right hand access. Please now turn to Slide 30. As we mentioned during our third quarter call in September, the PSA approved a rate increase of $64.5 million, a new rate were effective for bills rendered on and after October 30th. Our BLRA filings for 2016 are showed at the bottom of the slide as you can see originally filed our quarterly status report for the fourth quarter and our next quarterly update would be filed in mid May. Not depicted here is the update filing addressed earlier as the timing of that petition didn’t get [indiscernible]. And I want to mention that the results of an analysis performed at the direction of South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff. As you may be aware the ORS contracted an independent accounting firm to determine whether the revised rate provision under the base load review act is cost beneficial to SCE&G customers consistent with our clients. This independent attestation concluded in January and reaffirmed a significant cost advantage that the BLRA has envisioned when the law was originally passed this report is available on the ORS’s Web site and linked to the independent accounting firm report can be found in the regulatory documents section of the nuclear development area of SCANA’s Investor Web site. That concludes our prepared remarks, we’ll now be glad to respond any questions you might have. Question-and-Answer Session Operator We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jim von Riesemann of Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead. Jim von Riesemann A couple of questions on the 4% to 6% growth rate, can you just elaborate again on how that’s calculated, how we should think about the out years because if somebody would do a linear analysis 2016 would be less than the 4% if you are just growing ’16 versus ’15? Did I make sense on that, I have been on too many conference calls today? Jimmy Addison The first part of your question, made sense so how we calculated is the average of the annual increases over that three to five year period. So we’re comfortable that that average growth and our plan to-date is at that 4% to 6% level. Now the second part I’m not sure I followed. Jim von Riesemann Yes, I don’t think I followed it either, but it’s just really to get to ’16 versus ’15 because you’re not on a 4% plain year-over-year Especially with your guidance of $4? Jimmy Addison You are saying it’s above it right? Jim von Riesemann Yes. Jimmy Addison Yes. And so — but that’s why we considered over the entire period not just any one year. So every year wouldn’t necessarily be within that cone, but overall the average would be. Jim von Riesemann Okay that I understand. So the question then becomes with the fixed price option and your updated CapEx on the slide. How much of that is reflective, is anything reflective in I guess either your growth rate or for the fixed price option for the — in your CapEx or even your earnings growth rate? Jimmy Addison So the CapEx is based upon the amended agreement it does not include the fixed price option. And that’s what our growth rate is based upon, I’m not sure that if we would adopt that option that it would have a material impact on the earnings growth rate, but if we do later this year and if it’s approved we’ll certainly consider that. Jim von Riesemann Okay. And then I guess I have a question on bonus depreciation. Jimmy Addison Sure. Jim von Riesemann Previously, that was about 75 million a year. Have you updated those numbers given the tax extenders from December? Jimmy Addison Yes, that still is a good reference of 75 million a year in the base business. And of course what’s different now is the five year view. So did not have that in the past. So there is a — obviously potential for the new nuclear units themselves to qualify for bonus depreciation, although not at the 50% level because it phases down to 40% and 30% and 18% and 19% respectively. So that’s the only thing that’s outside of the $75 million estimate. Jim von Riesemann Okay. And then I guess the last question really maybe is for Steve. How — if you think about all the components to build the two summer units. How much of them are still say overseas and still need to be shipped to the place, or I mean most of the components are on-site at this point in time? Steve Byrne A majority of the major components are on-site, I would say about 85%, and the remainder would be either overseas or domestic production of the major components left outstanding that would be overseas see you wanted a — we’ve got two same generator to do some or one of those is being shipped and the other one is nearing completion. I think all the turbine generator stuff is on-site, condenser stuff on-site, containments on-site. We’ve got couple of passive heat exchangers they are being reworked at in Italy those should be finished shortly. We have cone pumps those are domestic, but those won’t show up till 2017. That’s most of the major stuff. Now we’ll get into sub-modules, we still have some of the sub-modules for the structural modules particularly for the trailing unit, unit three, they are still in fabrication. And so for example CAO1 is being fabricated between Toshiba in Japan and IHI in Japan, there are 47 different sub-modules that are associated with that unit. ’15 have been delivered ’16 in the 47 have shift, it just takes a while for them to get here and so 25 or yet to be shipped. So we’ve got almost half of those are either on-site or on the ocean. So I think I’d like to more to characterize it 85% of major equipments on-site and of the remaining stuff, a lot of it is physically complete, some of it is waiting to be shipped. Some of it’s on the ocean now on its way to our site. Operator Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of UBS. Please go ahead. Unidentified Analyst Hi, this is Mike Weirton, a Couple of questions, one did you say what was causing the drop off in industrial growth weather adjusted? Jimmy Addison No, I really didn’t address it’s not a significant change just showing down there about half a percent. The one thing that it makes it difficult to really address this quarter is as you will probably remember from the national news is we had an historic five year in simple South Carolina and they were expensive impact on our industrial customers. Everything from simple is logistics of workers not being able to get to plan to industrial in-takes malfunctioning, because of the extremely high water to impacts on rail. So it’s really difficult to quantify that so I am not too alarmed by one period here of slightly down. Unidentified Analyst Okay. And what’s causing the steep drop in SCE&G’s on the GAAP side, on its ROE versus PSNC Yes I can see when you look at the September numbers almost hasn’t changed in north Carolina but south Caroline has come off? Jimmy Addison Yeah, it’s a fortune of the obviously the right day’s additions as well as the operating costs etc involved in the units and as well as the timing I believe the south Caroline is as of September 30 and the PSNC number is I believe at 12.31 we just have a thought the south Carolina report, yes we haven’t updated that one. Unidentified Analyst And on the nuclear side the CapEx looks like it is about 200 million higher in the peak spending year ’17 and ’18 and it seems to flow through right into the clip and I am just wondering does that mean that, does that result in higher BLRAs rate increases going forward and is that as a results of the new, it is all as a result of the settlement right? Jimmy Addison Yes so the CapEx numbers haven’t changed at all from what we presented in the third quarter and just assume just the amended agreement not the fixed price option. All that’s change is the timing of when they occurred in this presentation Michael so that’s the only adjustment. Unidentified Analyst Okay, it’s just a timing issue. Okay all right and I guess thank you. Operator Our next question comes from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Please go ahead. Travis Miller You mentioned the second quarter you want to make the decision then on the fixed price option, what do you think, give me a timeline and thoughts on why you wouldn’t wait until November and then secondly if you do make that decision in the second quarter what’s the regulatory schedule look like from that point? Jimmy Addison Let me start and then let Steve jump in. We said that it’s like to be Q2 that’s our best judgment but Steve also said in the opening comments that we have until November and if we think we need all that time we will take all that time. So, we’re just giving you our most likely estimate of when we think we’ll have a good assessment of Fleur’s input et cetera that we’ll be able to make that, to make that call. And at the point that we feel like we have that and have our information together we’ll make a filing with the Public Service Commission and then they have their statutory six months to rule on that and that part sometime in the middle of that six months we would be before them to present our information ask for their support. Steve Byrne It is Steve one that would be take us long as you’ve got to make the decision which we fully understand but we did in an ex-parte fashion brief our Public Service Commission on the two options that we would have going forward and what we told them was as soon as we will complete with our valuation we will come back to them with the option that we selected so we tend to do that. One complication that you might not see that makes my life a little more difficult in the interim I have to sort of key to set the books and if I have to base assumptions on both we are exercising fixed price option and we are not exercising the fixed price option and if we’re going to exercise one of the other it’s a lot simpler for me like the drop the other set of books. so it take all kind of commercial issues off the table and just make the life a lot of easier. Travis Miller So, you did the, you briefed the regulators there is been any conversation or interaction with interveners or other groups that you think might have opposition to so your fixed price option or is it a preference to one or the other? Steve Byrne We’ve done a number of brief things some of which were public, we’re briefing for the legislature for examples and we are briefings with the governors and advisor council and some intervenes were present during the ex-parte briefing we had last November with the Public Service Commission but there was no interaction with them at that point of time. So, we have and will continue to have some interactions but we don’t know who all the interveners might be until we file something and given the opportunity to intervene. So, it’s not a surprise but we won’t have any more conversation with our Public Service Commission until we make a filing we are not allowed to have any conversation on above topic. Operator Our next question comes from Steven Byrd of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Steven Byrd I wanted to just talk about Toshiba for a moment Toshiba has been in the press off late and on a high level just wanted to understand as you think about their credit position and sort of safe guards and protections for you how should we think about way that you can sort of receive protection against the potential deterioration of credit quality at Toshiba? Jimmy Addison Yes, well let me just talk briefly about some contract provisions in a conceptual form and then I’ll let Steve talk some about operationally about the project. So, we do have some security provisions in the contract if their ratings fall below a certain grade and they have forget those now and we have initiated that security now for Company’s other reason I am just not going get into the details of what that is, how much that is et cetera but it is essentially meant to handling kind of payment obligations where they will not be able to pay sub contractors things of that nature as well as performance obligations if they don’t went up to their terms of the contract. So, there is our best kind of the financial construct just in the contract that we have pulled the trigger on and I’ll just let Steve talk a little about the project itself. Steve Byrne Yes we’ve been tracking the situation at Toshiba obviously very large company I think the Japanese government we love to see them fail but they have submitted obviously our restructuring plan we are hardened to see in the structuring plan they intend to stay in the energy business while they do intend to shed some of the business are going to stay in the energy business which would include nuclear such a good thing for us. Also we are glad to see that with the significant changes in the leadership and the Board at Toshiba that the persons we have been largely dealing with in the nuclear arena survive that turmoil again we think that’s a good thing. I do believe that Toshiba has been successful at securing some debt from some large Japanese banks just recently. Bankruptcy also definitely maturely mean that the things would stop other various kinds of bankruptcies not that we think it will get to that point it definitely assume things that the site will stop. In addition to the sort of the financial protections and Jimmy just alluded to we did actually forecast situation like this back and we were negotiating the EPC contract not necessarily that we thought that the larger corporation Toshiba might have financial difficulties but we are really focusing on perhaps the smaller corporations like Westinghouse and [indiscernible] might have some financial difficulties so we do have in the contracts some provisions to Escrow intellectual property such that if that were to be a session of operations by the contractor that we could finish the plan on our own. Steven Byrd That’s really helpful. Since they should be been able to Sanmen project in China just wondered if yet any update there in terms of this status of Sanmen. Steve Byrne I don’t have any recent updates on Sanmen we have a team that’s supposed to go over there I think it’s in the April or May timeframe so will get some more firsthand information then my understanding is that we still anticipate that Sanmen 1 will come online sometime this year. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Weisel of Macquarie. Please go ahead. Andrew Weisel Few questions, first one is about the new long-term growth rate. Could you maybe talk outside of whether major pickup in the economy what are some factors that will potentially take you to or above the high end of that 6% level? Jimmy Addison Yes I think the largest kind of at risk variable from a positive or a negative standpoint Andrew is probably what happens with usage on electric on the electric side unrelated to weather so what goes on in that area I mean it’s obviously related to the economy but what do people do with every day electric consumption and that’s been very difficult for our industry to model the last several years it flattened out and was slightly up for us in 2015 that surprised us in a good way a little but that continues to be the most difficult thing for us to model. Andrew Weisel Anything on the capital side obviously there are Nuclear CapEx that is constantly being adjusted but anything in the base business that might get you like I said that towards or above the high ends or potentially a thing that can do wrong that might take you below that low end? Jimmy Addison No we feel pretty good about our CapEx plan I mean setting aside the nuclear as you said in your question which has the down adjustment due to the project we were doing in the base business the things we need to do to have safe reliable power but we’re not doing a great deal of things beyond that in order to maintain no base rate increases during this period or pressure on returns if we were not to have increases. PSNC is probably the biggest story outside of that with the growth in that area particularly in the transmission area and of course we have said earlier that we found yesterday a notice of a pending rate increase their but that is fairly well laid out that could change some based prices deal and compression in that kind of thing overtime but I don’t expect it to vary a great deal. Andrew Weisel Then my other question is about the dividend obviously a bigger increase there then what we’ve seen in the past few years and that takes you right to the midpoint of your targeted payout ratio if we assume the midpoint of the EPS guidance going forward should we expect the dividend to grow more at that kind of 5% range which is the midpoint of the EPS growth or would it be more likely to revert back to the earlier 3% to 4% range that we would have seen in the past several years? Jimmy Addison Yes if you will bear with me let me give you 30 seconds of history here. When the recession hit and earnings slowed a great deal we got outside of our payout policy of 55% to 60% we get up in the close to 63% to 65%. We continued to grow dividends during those next few year but we grew them at about half the way of the earnings growth. So that we can get back within the policy and now we are comfortably back within the policy and our position at this point is we expect to grow those dividends fairly consistent with earnings growth. Operator Our next question comes from Dan Jenkins with The State of Wisconsin Investment Board. Please go ahead. Dan Jenkins First of all I was just curious on your financing plan for 2016 and I show about a 1 billion for SCE&G I was wondering if you could give any insight of the timing would that be like throughout the year or first half, second half? Jimmy Addison Yes so, today we would model in roughly half of it about mid year and half of it near the end of the year. That is definitely going to need to be dynamically adjusted to which option we end up electing being and the payment schedule that goes on with that, we’ve talked about on the last call as well as briefly on this one so that’s really going to cause adjustments in that schedule so I’m fairly sure it will adjust from this but today’s best guess is about half midyear and about half near the end of the year. Dan Jenkins Going to the nuclear unit, and in particular I was stuck to the report you just filed for the fourth quarter report and in particular mentioned how the Shield building is one of the primary critical path of things, items that’s potentially had I guess some of those modules you’re having trouble with or whatever size, wonder if you could expand on that what the timing as you think with that kind of [indiscernible] will be exiting resolved? Jimmy Addison Yes I think the Shield building items when you say resolved I think we’ve resolved much of our Shield building issues there, the biggest issue that we had really was that — we anticipated that the fit up of this first of the kind item are taking these individual panels that come from Newport News Industrial or NNI and then putting them together at the site loading them up within the tolerance of and filling them with concrete was going to be very difficult, we’ve done a lot of mark ups, to receive our half the panels for the first unit may be a 25% for the second unit. The placement so far like you characterize is going a little better than we had anticipated and so we’ve got 16 courses of steel panels that go in a ring that we eventually will fill with concrete. We’ve placed the first three of those courses already, the first two have been welded fit and put concrete in and the third of course we recently placed that we’re welding that but again that’s going I think better than we had anticipated. So, now our focus since that is a critical path is ensuring that we get the sub modules the pieces of the panels from NNI in a timely fashion and so Westinghouse has taken over the contract it is really nice to have so that’s now our exclusively our Westinghouse to NNI deal, we think it’s good. And then the delivery schedule looks to be good and their negotiating a mitigation strategy and in fact I’ll be going to NNI tomorrow to talk through the mitigation strategy that will accelerate some of those panel delivered to the site so. I think the Shield building right now it’s going pretty well, but it is our focus area because it is critical path. Dan Jenkins And then similarly talks a little bit about secondary critical path being the CA20 and CA01 the CA03 are those like parallel paths to the Shield building issues or are they dependant on the Shield building path? Jimmy Addison No, not — they’re not necessarily dependant on the Shield building but they would come in right in line after the Shield building so once we demonstrate proficiency with Shield building than we could focus on whatever’s next so we’re always looking at primary, secondary, tertiary critical paths. So, the secondary path is as you mentioned that CA20 module for the trailing Unit 3, we’ve already set CA20 Unit to our facility we did come up with a interesting mitigation strategy for the CA20 module whereas on the first unit on Unit 2 we set it as one piece, on the second one we’re going to set it in two half. So, that will save us probably a couple of months in the fabrication and that’s important because it actually forms a part of the concrete formwork for the rest of the plant so it’s important that we set that half of that and use it is as form concrete while we’re working on the second half and then set the second half. So, that said right now so that was — that the team onsite came up with that plan, we’re executing on that plan and we’ve to set that first half CA20 for the second unit in Q1 — last Q1 and then we should set the second half of CA20 bringing the three probably early in Q2. Dan Jenkins And somewhat related to that you mentioned some I don’t know if you have the report in front of you on Page 15 of it, in the middle of it kind of related to the CA01 and CA20 that and the current schedule the date doesn’t support the construction schedule for the Units and so how I guess what is how is that being impacting in overall schedule, how should we think about that, how much can that be mitigated? Jimmy Addison Yes I think, a good example of mitigation is the plan that we came up with to split the CA20 module into two halves and CA01, we’re looking at similar things, we’re looking to expedite the delivery of the sub modules from IHI and Toshiba in Japan. Toshiba obviously has all the incentive in this world under the agreement that we negotiated in October to expedite whatever they can so that they both have the sensitive parent company of Westinghouse so they are both the families that they don’t do things on time and there are significant bonus and centers that they finish on time so they’ve got as much incentive as we could possibly put into an agreement. So we are looking to accelerate the schedule for the modules coming out of Japan, for CA01 and we are implementing strategy to slit CA20 and set in two halves instead of one large piece [indiscernible] CA20 portion. Operator Our next question comes from Jonathan Reeder of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Jonathan Reeder One quick point of clarity, so with Fleur’s assessment of the schedule kind of comes back, the current schedule isn’t feasible, how does that work then, do you have to negotiate and other emended EPC contract before, you would file that with the commission, so that how the benchmarks the milestones are set appropriately in the next approved BLRA? Jimmy Addison Jonathan I think the short answer is, it depends on far out they are if you remember with our last order from the public service commission, we had a plus 18 months for each of the milestones, so as long as you stay within that 18 months, we don’t need to go back in on the schedule. So, really it’s going to depend on how far but what I more envision that Fleur might come back and say in order to get the schedule on time to accelerate this you might have to bring in more resources than we have on the current plan, so we’re going to see just a 4,000 employees, that they might come back and say they need to get 4,500 employees, that input might drive us towards opting for the fixed price because more people mean more dollars. Jonathan Reeder Right, so that would impact, I guess the non fix price option and win more creditability towards slight in the fixed price, that’s the way to think about it? Jimmy Addison Correct. Operator Our next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Michael Lapides A couple of nuts and bolts questions on the gas side of the business. First of all at PSNC as you filed later this spring, when would rates go into effect, does that actually get a six or a 12 month process in North Carolina? Jimmy Addison 6. Michael Lapides Okay, so rates would go and no later than [indiscernible] next year and that’s historical looking rate case there, can you do it for it or a [indiscernible] measureable? Jimmy Addison It’s a bit about, it’s a base historical test here but you can update for equipped as well as cap structure concurrent with the information being presented and any settlement being discussed or hearing before the commission. Michael Lapides Got it and on the GAAP side of SCE&G when would you file and do the rate stabilization act taking out revenue increase, when does that normally happen and when would that go into effect? Jimmy Addison Yes, so that runs through the end of the heating season, the measurement period through the end of March and we make the filing in May of each year and any adjustment either way for 50 basis points out would be effective the 1st of November for the implementation of the heat, typical heating season in the fall, although that did not happened this past year. Michael Lapides Got it, understood and then one question, just want to make sure understood that your comments about Toshiba and some of the financial and credit metric issues, Toshiba has and you mentioned that you’ve already started the process with Toshiba to cover some of the security related funds did you do that because of their downgrades did you do that because Toshiba is having issues paying some of their local subcontractors or some of the vendors or suppliers what was the main driver for starting the process now? Jimmy Addison Hi Michael this is Jimmy, I’ve commented on that earlier, so clean it up to you, that’s just procedural is just an option afforded that is under the contract, we’ve had no issues with that we’re well aware at all of any subs being paid or anything like that. Operator Our next question comes from Claire Tse of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. David Paz Hi this is actually David Paz. Sorry if I missed this earlier, does your 4% to 6% EPS growth rate assume any bonus depreciation impact on the new nuclear units when they come into service in 2019 and 2020? Jimmy Addison The guidance assumes the bonus depreciation on the base business. We have really not contemplated yet or model exactly what might happen with the bonus depreciation on the new unit themselves. So a lot of consideration has going into that long production tax credit et cetera to make sure maximize the value for the customer. David Paz I see. So it’s not essentially haven’t the modeled in the 4% to 6%. Jimmy Addison Right. David Paz Okay. Do you happen to know or kind of find somewhere in the BLRA filings what the cumulative cost per Unit 2 would be through 2019 as you currently stand today? Jimmy Addison Well on the amended contract is about the total units is about 7.1 billion. So you can roughly estimate 50% of that. David Paz Okay. Jimmy Addison David, are you looking for what’s been spent to-date? David Paz Well, not just to-date, but if I, I mean obviously you have the BRLAs by year, but if I knew what just Unit 2’s portion was through that, through ’19 as well as trying to get more exact number, but obviously I can ballpark it? Jimmy Addison Yes. We’ve not spoken about between Unit 2 and Unit 3 so yes you have to ballpark it. David Paz And then just can you just go through the process for how each unit goes into rate base. So is there formal filing with the PSC when each unit is completed. How is that process? Jimmy Addison So what we do is we have to prepare a projected operating cost year if you will. So an implementation year the first phase of the BRLA is to get plans proved. The second phase happens each year on the revise phrase in the third is the operating cost going in. And so we’ll have to project what the depreciation and the operating costs et cetera are and that does not require a hearing just requires us to present it to the office of regulatory staff and to the commission like we do the revise rates each year. Operator Our next question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead. Paul Patterson I wanted to touch base to you on the just on the last question on the BLRA and the bonus depreciation. It sounds like you guys were trying to analyzing the PTC in the impact of taking bonus and what have you. And I’m just trying to get a sense as to what that process is kind of like and sort of some of the factors that sort of go around if you follow me and how that might change the four to six potentially? Jimmy Addison Well, the only real impact is likely to be just on financing itself and any temporary benefits on financing. I mean bonus depreciation is simply accelerating a deduction that you’re going to get at some point in the future to an earlier point in time. So it’s you’re not going to change your total taxes per books, this is and changer differ taxes. So if you end up with the larger deferred tax credit, because of the bonus depreciation you can end up with lower rate base there in the short run. But in the very short run it’s just going to have some financing benefits to it just like the bonus depreciation does on the base business. Paul Patterson Well that is what I was wondering, I mean, I’m just wondering whether or not, I mean I understand that. I guess what I’m wondering is there any potential impact in the near-term, if the bonus depreciation was factored into. Another word how should we think about the potential sensitivity in the near-term, if bonus depreciation, my understanding is not be factored in now, if it were to coming. Is there any, can you give us any rule of thumb or any thought process as to, if there would be impact and what that impact might be? Jimmy Addison No. We’re talking about something is going to that would potentially be a cash impact in the second half of 2019. So I don’t really see in the near-term impact on that. Paul Patterson Okay. So in another words, it’s a bonus depreciation, there is no potential for take. It would happen then regardless one would be happening anytime earlier in terms of your analysis regardless? Jimmy Addison That’s right. That’s correct. Paul Patterson Okay. Thanks so much for the clarity. And then just finally on the sales growth, I believe you guys in your last IRP were around 1.4% for retail sales growth. I think just over the long period. Is that still pretty much what you guys are looking at? Jimmy Addison Yes, we’re going to be filing a new IRP, one of the next few week space and we’re just reviewing and after that earlier this week. And I don’t think where we add at this point is materially different but we will be filling that in the next few weeks. Operator Our next question comes from Mitchell Moss of Lord, Abbett. Please go ahead. Jimmy Addison Mitchell, we can’t hear you. Mitchell Moss Sorry about that. Jimmy Addison Okay. Mitchell Moss Just a follow-up and some of the questions on Toshiba’s credit ratings and downgrades, in terms of next steps there are further downgrades for Toshiba. Is there a — is it kind of like incremental steps or it is a single Toshiba’s rating moves down one more moth there is sort of one or two more steps or is there sort of Toshiba has just all several rating options from here before you guys would be to I guess do further action regarding taking any security actions? Jimmy Addison Right so the contractual on a security provision I mentioned earlier their ratings meet the criteria for us to like those or they don’t and they’ve met those so there are no further impacts there is no greatest dealing? Mitchell Moss So I guess you would so in other words so the ratings where they are at now you haven’t needed to take any, there haven’t been any security provisions activated or there have been? Jimmy Addison There have not been in the past, we recently initiated those and they have 60 days for those to be fulfilled. Mitchell Moss Okay. Jimmy Addison And those are all other provisions once fulfilled. Mitchell Moss Okay. And just on a more of a technical question, your Slide 13 I believe yes Slide 13 shows debt refinancing at SCANA in 2018 are 170 million utility is 550. Last quarter you had combined it at about 720 all that SCANA and so I just wanted to find out to better understand I see the 550 in terms of just that at the utility I just want those understand 170 million of SCANA debt is? Jimmy Addison That relates to South Carolina generating company but it is one plant that operates solely for SC&G all the power goes to SC&G so it’s just the separately financed plant but it’s solely related to we call it Genco something like a generating company. Mitchell Moss Okay. So, it’s not a really holding company debt. Jimmy Addison That’s right but it technically is a subsidiary of SCANA and that’s the reason we presented it that way. Operator And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jimmy Addison for any closing remarks. Jimmy Addison Well. Thank you so far this has been a very eventful and productive year and we’re excited about the new arrangement with Westinghouse and Fleur. We continue to focus on the new nuclear construction and on operating all of our businesses in a safe and reliable manner. We thank you all for joining us today and for your interest in SCANA. Have a good afternoon. Operator The conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a great day. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) 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SCANA (SCG) Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Operator Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. I will be your conference facilitator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the SCANA Corporation Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded on Thursday, February 18, 2016. Anyone who does not consent to the taping may drop off the line. At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Susan Wright, Director of Financial Planning and Investor Relations. Susan Wright Thank you, and welcome to our analyst call. As you know, earlier today, we announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2015. Joining us on the call today are Jimmy Addison, SCANA’s Chief Financial Officer and Steve Byrne, Chief Operating Officer of SCE&G. During the call, Jimmy will provide an overview of our financial results and Steve will provide an update of our new nuclear project. After our comments, we will respond to your questions. The slides and the earnings release referenced to in this call are available at scana.com. Additionally, we post information related to our new nuclear project and other investor information directly to our Web site at scana.com. On SCANA’s homepage, there is a yellow box containing links to the new nuclear development and other Investor Information sections of the Web site. It is possible that some of the information that we will be posting from time-to-time may be deemed material information that has not otherwise become public. You can sign-up for e-mail alerts under the Investors section of scana.com to notify you when there is a new posting in the nuclear development and/or other Investor Information sections of the Web site. Finally, before I turn the call over to Jimmy, I would like to remind you that certain statements that may be made during today’s call are considered forward-looking statements and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties as shown on Slide 2. The Company does not recognize an obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Additionally, we may disclose certain non-GAAP measures during this presentation and the required Reg G information can be found in the Investor Relations section of our Web site under Webcasts & Presentations. I’ll now turn the call over to Jimmy. Jimmy Addison Thanks, Susan, and thank you all for joining us today. I’ll begin our earnings discussion on Slide 3. GAAP earnings in the fourth quarter of 2015 were $0.69 per share compared to $0.73 per share in the same quarter of 2014. The decrease in earnings in the fourth quarter is mainly attributable to the negative impact of weather on electric margins, as well as on gas margins in our Georgia business. Lower gas margins also reflect $0.07 per share of lost margins due to the sale of CGT early in the year. These losses were partially offset by higher electric margins, due primarily to a Base Load Review Act rate increase and customer growth, as well as lower depreciation expense as a result of a new depreciation study. And lower O&M expense due primarily to labor savings and the impact of the sales of CGT during the first quarter of 2015. Note, too, that abnormal weather decreased electric margins by $0.14 per share and $0.02 per share versus normal in the fourth quarters of 2015 and 2014, respectively. Please turn to Slide 4. Earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2015 were $5.22 versus $3.79 in 2014. The improved results are mainly attributable to the net of tax gains on the sales of CGT and SCI, higher electric margins due primarily to a Base Load Review Act rate increase and customer growth, as well as lower depreciation expense and O&M, as described earlier. These were partially offset by lower electric margins due to weather, lower gas margins — primarily due to lost gas margins of $0.23 per share resulting from the sale of CGT and the impact of abnormal weather on the Georgia business. And normal increases in CapEx related items, including interest, property taxes and share dilution. Although electric margins reflected a negative $0.13 per share due to weather year over year, abnormal weather increased electric margins in both years, accounting for $0.08 per share in 2015 compared to $0.21 in 2014. Slide 5 shows earnings on a GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized basis. Earnings in the fourth quarter of 2015 were $0.83 per share compared to $0.75 per share in the same quarter of 2014. Full-year earnings were $3.73 per share in 2015 compared to $3.58 per share in the prior year. As a reminder, GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized EPS excludes the impact of abnormal weather on electric margins, and the net of tax gains on the sales of CGT and SCI from the first quarter of 2015. Abnormal weather on gas margins is not adjusted in this measure, as gas margins are weather-normalized for the North and South Carolina businesses. And the direct impact of abnormal weather on the Georgia business is generally insignificant. However, the extremely mild weather in the fourth quarter of 2015 was seen in that business as standalone results, as I’ll discuss later. Now on Slide 6, I’d like to briefly review results for our principal lines of business. On a GAAP basis, South Carolina Electric & Gas Company’s fourth-quarter 2015 earnings were down $0.01 per share compared to the same period of 2014. The decrease in earnings is due to lower electric margins due to abnormal weather, and higher expenses related to our capital program, including interest expense and property taxes. These decreases more than offset increases due to the continued recovery of financing costs through the BLRA, customer growth in both the electric and gas businesses, the application of the previously mentioned new depreciation rates, and lower O&M due primarily to labor savings. For the full-year 2015, earnings were higher by $0.12 per share due to increased electric margins, primarily from the continued recovery of financing costs through the BLRA, and customer growth, improved gas margins due to customer growth, and the application of new depreciation rates. These items were partially offset by the effective abnormal weather on electric margins and higher expenses related to our capital program, including interest expense, property taxes, dilution, and continued increases in depreciation exclusive of the impact of the depreciation study. Although weather in both years contributed favorably to electric margins versus normal, 2015 was milder than 2014, with weather contributing $0.08 of margin versus normal in 2015 compared to $0.21 in 2014. PSNC Energy reported earnings of $0.17 per share in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to $0.16 per share in the same quarter of the prior year, primarily due to higher margins from customer growth. For the year ended December 2015, earnings are $0.38 per share compared to $0.39 per share in the prior year. SCANA Energy, our retail natural gas marketing business in Georgia, showed a decrease in fourth-quarter earnings of $0.06 per share in 2015 over the same quarter of last year. Primarily due to lower throughput and margins attributable to the extremely warm weather during the fourth quarter of 2015 as compared to 2014, partially offset by lower bad debt expense. For the 12 months ended December 31, 2015, earnings were down $0.05 per share compared to the same period of 2014, due to the same drivers as the quarter. On a GAAP basis, SCANA’s corporate and other businesses reported a loss of $0.01 per share in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to $0.03 in the comparative quarter of the prior year. Lower interest expense at the holding company and increased margins at our marketing business were primarily offset by foregone earnings contributions from the subsidiaries that were sold during the fourth quarter of this year. For the 12 month period, these businesses reported earnings per share of $1.36 in 2015 compared to $0.01 loss in 2014. Excluding the net of tax gains on the sales of CGT and SCI of $1.41 per share, GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized EPS was down $0.04 from the prior year, due primarily to foregone earnings from the sale of the businesses earlier this year. Offset by lower interest expense at the holding company and increased margins in our marketing business. I would now like to touch on economic trends in our service territory on Slide 7. In 2015, companies announced plans to invest over $2 billion with the expectation of creating over 6,000 jobs in our Carolinas territories. The Carolinas continue to be seen as a favorable business environment, and we’re pleased by the continuous growth in our service territories. At the bottom of the slide, you can see the national unemployment rate, along with the rates for the three states where SCANA has a presence, and the SCE&G electric territory. South Carolina’s unemployment rate is now at 5.5%, and the rate in SCE&G’s electric territory is estimated at 4.7%. At the top of Slide 8, you can see the South Carolina employment statistics as of December 2015 and 2014. Over the course of 2015, South Carolina’s unemployment rate has dropped over a percentage point from its level at the end of 2014. December of 2015 also marked all-time highs for the number of South Carolinians employed and in the labor force. Of particular interest, and attesting to our state’s strong economic growth, almost 80,000 or 3.8% more South Carolinians are working today than a year ago. Said another way, had the labor force not increased during 2015, the unemployment rate would be approximately 3%. The expansion of the labor force is simply evidence of the confidence of some of the workforce to re-enter the market, and the positive migration to the State of South Carolina. As depicted on the bottom of the slide, United Van Lines recently released its annual mover study for 2015, which tracks migration patterns state to state. For the third consecutive year, South Carolina finished ranked second in terms of domestic migration destinations, corroborating our realized customer growth statistics. North Carolina has also been ranked in the Top 5 for the last three years. Slide 9 presents customer growth and electric sales statistics. On the top half of the slide is the customer growth rate for each of our regulated businesses. SCE&G’s electric business added customers at a year-over-year rate of 1.5%. Our regulated gas businesses in North and South Carolina added customers at a rate of 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. We continue to see very strong customer growth in our businesses and in the region. The bottom table outlines our actual and weather-normalized kilowatt hour sales for the 12 months ended December 31, 2015. Overall, weather-normalized total retail sales are up 1.3% on a 12-month ended basis. In conjunction with the continued improvement of economic conditions in South Carolina, the past two quarters have shown an accelerating improvement in usage in the residential market. And now please turn to Slide 10, which recaps our regulator rate base and returns. The pie chart on the left presents the components of our regulated rate base of approximately $9.6 billion. As denoted in the two shades of blue, approximately 86% of this rate base is related to the electric business. In the block on the right, you will see SCE&G’s base electric business, in which we are allowed a 10.25% return on equity. The earned return for the 12 months ended December 31, 2015 in the base electric business is approximately 9.75%, meeting our stated goal of earning a return of 9% or higher to prevent the need for non-BLRA-related base rate increases during the peak nuclear construction years. We continue to be pleased with the execution of our strategy. As a reminder, we’re allowed a return on equity of 10.25% and 10.6% in our LDCs in South and North Carolina, respectively. In response to the normal attrition and the earned returns in our North Carolina business, yesterday PSNC notified the North Carolina Utilities Commission of its intention to file a rate case. We plan to file the detailed case within the next 60 days, where more clarity will be provided. As you will recall, in South Carolina, if the earned ROE of the gas business for the 12 months ending in March falls outside a range of 50 basis points above or below the allowed ROE, then we will file to adjust rates under the Rate Stabilization Act in June. Slide 11 presents our CapEx forecast. This forecast reflects the Company’s current estimate of New Nuclear spending through 2018, and has been updated to reflect what was filed in our quarterly BLRA report, which also reflects the amended EPC that was announced in October 2015. At the bottom of the slide, we recap the estimated New Nuclear CWIP from July 1 through June 30, to correspond to the periods on which the BLRA rate increases are historically calculated. Slide 12 presents the transition payments information and an expected timeframe for our filing with the Public Service Commission of South Carolina. Once these events are complete, we will update the CapEx schedule and the corresponding financing plan. And now please turn to Slide 13 to review our estimated financing plan through 2018. As a reminder, we have switched to open rocket purchases instead of issuing new shares to fulfill our 401(k) and DRIP plans, at least until we have fully utilized the net cash proceeds from the sales of CGT and SCI. We do not anticipate the need for further equity issuances until 2017. And again, the election of the fixed price option would likely change planned equity issuances after 2016. While these are our best estimates of incremental debt and equity issuances, it is unlikely these issuances will occur in the exact amounts or timing as presented, as they are subject to changes in our funding needs for planned project expenses. We continued to adjust the financing to match the related project CapEx on a 50/50 debt and equity basis. On Slide 14, we are reaffirming our 2016 GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized earnings guidance as $3.90 per share to $4.10 per share, with an internal target of $4 per share. We continue to be cautiously optimistic about our long-term view, and are increasing the lower band of our long-term growth rate from 3% to 4%. We are also resetting our base year to 2015 GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized EPS of $3.73. Therefore, our new GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized annual growth guidance target will be to deliver 4% to 6% earnings growth over the three to five years using a base of 2015 GAAP Adjusted Weather Normalized EPS of $3.73. This increase represents our projected earnings momentum, driven by our BLRA filings, our stated goal to manage base retail electric returns, and our view of the economy, balanced with our continued assumption of the impacts of energy conservation and efficiency standards. I also wanted to mention that earlier today we announced an increase of $0.12 in our annual dividend rate for 2016, to $2.30 per share, a 5.5% increase. We continue to anticipate growing dividends fairly consistent with earnings, while staying within our stated pay-out policy of 55% to 60%. And finally, on Slide 15, we are very pleased to report that in late December, we successfully completed the syndication of an expanded and extended credit facility. The additional liquidity is important to our nuclear construction project and accelerated CapEx spending at PSNC. The committed lines of credit now total $2 billion. I would like to thank our banks for their enthusiastic support of our liquidity needs, and therefore, the support of our nuclear expansion plans. We are pleased that we continue to receive an excellent response for our nuclear construction from our equity and debt investors, as well as our banks. And I’ll now turn the call over to Steve to provide an update on our nuclear project. Steve Byrne Thanks Jimmy. I’d like to begin by addressing the status of the settlement with the Consortium. Slide 16 presents the outline we have shown in previous discussions, as a recap. As you may be aware, Westinghouse closed on the transaction to acquire Stone & Webster from CB&I at the end of December, and Fluor began work as a subcontracted construction manager at the New Nuclear construction-site on January 4. We continue our analysis of the fixed price option, and will include input from Fluor as they progress. As a reminder, we have until November 1 of this year to unilaterally elect the fixed price option or not. And we plan to take as much time as needed to insure that we make the most prudent decision. Regardless of which scenario we choose, once a decision has been made, we will file a petition with the Public Service Commission to amend the capital cost and schedule for the project. As Jimmy said earlier, we expect to reach a conclusion in the second quarter. Moving on to some of the activities at the New Nuclear construction-site, Slide 17 presents an aerial photo of the site from September of 2015. I’ve provided this photo to give you a view of the layout of the site. And I’ve labeled both Units 2 & 3, as well as many other areas that make up what we call the table top. On Slide 18, you can see a picture of the Unit 2 Nuclear Island. In this picture you can see Module CA20 on the right hand side of the slide along the containment vessel Ring Number 1, which was placed on and welded to the lower bowl. Several of the large structural modules have now been placed inside the Unit 2 containment vessel. As we will discuss shortly, you can also see the beginnings of the shield building, as three courses have now been placed. Slide 19 shows a picture of the Unit 3 Nuclear Island. Module CA04 was placed inside the containment vessel lower bowl back in June, and the auxiliary building walls continue to go further. As you’ll see shortly, we are making progress with the fabrication and placement of containment vessel structural modules on both units. Slide 20 presents a schematic view of the five large structural modules that are located inside the containment vessel. I’ve shown this schematic numerous times before because this expanded view gives you a better feel for how CA01 through CA05 fit spatially inside the containment vessel. As we you may know, we have now placed CA01, CA04 and CA05 for Unit 2, and CA04 for Unit 3. Slide 21 shows a picture of the Unit 2 CA02 module. CA02 is a wall section that forms part of the unit containment refueling water storage tank. As mentioned last quarter, CA02 is now structurally complete and awaiting installation. Slide 22 shows a picture of the Unit 2 CA03, which is the west wall of the unit containment refueling water storage tank. 15 of CA03s 17 sub-modules are on-site, and 12 are now on their assembly platform. Slide 23 shows a picture of the Unit 3 module CA05. This module comprises one of the major wall sections within the containment vessel. Fabrication on the Unit 3 CA05 has been completed, and it has been staged outside the modular assembly building, or MAB. Slide 24 shows a picture of the Unit 3 CA20, which is the auxiliary building module that will be located outside and adjacent to the containment vessel. 68 of the 72 sub-modules are on-site, and 20 of those sub-modules have been upended on the construction platform or flattened for fabrication in the MAB. Slide 25 shows a picture of the beginnings of the Unit 3 module CA01. Module CA01 houses the steam generators and the pressurizer, and forms a refueling canal inside the containment vessel. Currently, we have 15 of the 47 sub-modules on-site, and three of those sub-modules are upright and being welded together in the MAB. Slide 26 shows the progress of the placement of the Unit 2 shield building panels. The first six-panel course was placed during the first half of 2015. During the fourth quarter of 2015, the second six-panel course was set on top of the first course. And at the beginning of this month, we placed the third six-panel course. As the shield building panels are placed and welded together, concrete is poured inside the panels to create the shield building. Concrete has been placed in the first two courses. Slide 27 shows a couple of pictures from the Unit 2 turbine pedestal concrete placement from December of 2015. Overall, more than 2,300 cubic yards of concrete was placed over the course of about 20 hours. Slide 28 shows a picture of the single phase for the 230-ton Unit 2 main transformers. There are four such transformers for each unit. And here you can see one of the four being rigged for placement adjacent to the Unit 2 turbine building. Each unit will have these four, plus six other transformers. All 10 of them in place for Unit 2, and all 10 have been received for Unit 3. On Slide 29, you’ll see the New Nuclear CapEx, actual and projected, over the life of the construction. This chart shows CWIP during the years 2008 to 2020, reflecting the Q4 of 2015 BLRA quarterly report that we filed in February. As a reminder, the BLRA report now reflects the cost from the October 2015 amended EPC. As you can see, we’re currently in the middle of the peak nuclear construction period. The green line represents the related actual and projected customer rate increases under the BLRA, and is associated with the right-hand axis. Please now turn to Slide 30. As we mentioned during our third-quarter call in September, the PSC approved a rate increase of $64.5 million. The new rates were effective for bills rendered on and after October 30. Our BLRA filings for 2016 are shown at the bottom of the slide. And as you can see, we recently filed our quarterly status report for the fourth quarter, and our next quarterly update will be filed in mid May. Not depicted here, but in the update filing I addressed earlier, the timing of that petition isn’t yet known. Finally, I wanted to mention the results of an analysis performed at the direction of the South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff. As you may be aware, the ORS contracted an independent accounting firm to determine whether the revised rate provision under the Base Load Review Act is cost-beneficial to SCE&G customers, consistent with our claims. This independent attestation, and concluded in January, and reaffirmed the significant cost advantage of the BLRA as envisioned when the law was originally passed. This report is available on the ORS’s Web site, and a link to the independent accounting firm’s report can be found in the regulatory document section of the Nuclear Development area of SCANA’s Investor Web site. That concludes our prepared remarks. We’ll now be glad to respond to any questions you might have. Question-and-Answer Session Operator We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jim von Riesemann of Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead. Jim von Riesemann A couple questions on the 4% to 6% growth rate, can you just elaborate again on how that’s calculated? How we should think about the out years? Because if somebody were to do a linear analysis, 2016 would be less than the 4%, if you are just growing 2016 versus 2015, did I make sense, or have I been on too many conference calls today? Jimmy Addison The first part of your question made sense. So how we calculate it is, the average of the annual increases over that three- to five-year period. So we’re comfortable that, that average growth in our plan today is at that 4% to 6% level. Now, the second part I’m not sure I followed. Jim von Riesemann Yes, I don’t think I followed it either. But it’s just really to get to 2016 versus 2015, because you’re not on a 4% plain year over year, especially with your guidance of $4. Jimmy Addison You are saying it’s above it right? Jim von Riesemann Yes. Jimmy Addison Yes, and so — but that’s why we consider it over the entire period, not just any one year. So every year wouldn’t necessarily be within that cone, but overall, the average would be. Jim von Riesemann Okay that I understand. So the question then becomes, with the fixed price option and your updated CapEx on the slides, how much of that is reflective — is anything reflected in, I guess, either your growth rate or for the fixed price option in your CapEx, or even your earnings growth rate? Jimmy Addison So the CapEx is based upon the amended agreement. It does not include the fixed price option. And that’s what our growth rate is based upon. I’m not sure that, if we were to adopt that option, that it would have a material impact on the earnings growth rate. But if we do later this year, and if it’s approved, we will certainly consider that. Jim von Riesemann Okay. And then I guess I have a question on bonus depreciation. Jimmy Addison Sure. Jim von Riesemann Previously, that was about 75 million a year. Have you updated those numbers given the tax extenders from December? Jimmy Addison Yes, that still is a good reference, the 75 million a year in the base business. And of course, what’s different now is the five-year view; so we have not had that in the past. So there’s obviously the potential for the New Nuclear units themselves to qualify for bonus depreciation. Although not at the 50% level, because it phases down to 40% and 30% in 2018 and 2019, respectively, so that’s the only thing that’s outside that $75 million estimate. Jim von Riesemann Okay. And then I guess the last question, really, maybe is for Steve. How — if you think about all of the components to build the two summer units, how much of them are still, say, overseas and still need to be shipped to the place? Or are most of the components on-site at this point in time? Steve Byrne A majority of the major components are on-site. I would say about 85%, and the remainder would be either overseas or domestic production. Of the major components left outstanding that would be overseas — let’s see, one of the — we’ve got two steam generators in Tucson. One of those is being shipped; the other one is nearing completion. I think all of the turbine generator stuff is on-site, condenser stuff is on-site, containment is on-site. We’ve got a couple of passive heat exchangers that are being reworked in Italy. Those should be finished shortly. We had cone pumps; those are domestic, but those won’t show up until 2017. That’s most of the major stuff. Now, when we get into sub-modules, we still have some of the sub-modules for the structural modules, particularly for the trailing unit, Unit 3. They are still in fabrication. And so for example, CA01 is being fabricated between Toshiba in Japan and IHI in Japan. There are 47 different sub-modules that are associated with the unit. 15 have been delivered, 15 of the 47. Seven have shipped. It just takes awhile for them to get here. And so the 25 are yet to be shipped. So we’ve got almost half of those are either on-site or on the ocean. So I think if I were to categorize it, 85% of the major equipment is on-site. And of the remaining stuff, a lot of it is physically complete. Some of it is waiting to be shipped; some is on the ocean now, on its way to our site. Operator Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of UBS. Please go ahead. Mike Weinstein Hi, this is Mike Weinstein, a couple of questions. One, did you say what was causing the drop-off in industrial growth, weather-adjusted? Jimmy Addison No, I really didn’t address that. It’s not a significant change, just showing down there about 0.5%. The one thing that makes it difficult to really address this quarter is, as you’ll probably remember from the national news is, we had a historic flood in central South Carolina. And there was an extensive impact on our industrial customers — everything from as simple as logistics of workers not being able to get to plants, to industrial intakes malfunctioning because of the extremely high water, to impacts on rail. So it’s really difficult to quantify that, so I’m not too alarmed by one period here of slightly down. Mike Weinstein Okay. And what’s causing the steep drop in SCE&G’s on the gas side, on its ROE versus PSNC. Which, when you look at the September numbers, there’s almost no change in North Carolina, but South Carolina really seems to have come off. Jimmy Addison Yes, it’s a function of obviously the rate base additions, as well as the operating cost, et cetera, involved in the units, and as well as the timing. I believe the South Carolina number is as of September 30, and the PSNC number is, I believe, at December 31. We just haven’t filed the South Carolina report yet, so we haven’t updated that one. Mike Weinstein All right, that makes sense. And on the nuclear side, the CapEx looks like it’s about $200 million higher in the peak spending years, 2017 and 2018. And it seems to flow through right into the CWIP. And I’m just wondering, does that mean that — does that result in higher BLRA rate increases going forward? And is that a result of the new — that’s all as a result of the settlement, right? Jimmy Addison Yes, so the CapEx numbers haven’t changed at all from what we presented in the third quarter. And this assumes just the amended agreement, not the fixed price option. All that’s changed is the timing of when they occur in this presentation, Michael, so that’s really the only adjustment. Mike Weinstein Okay, it’s just a timing issue. Jimmy Addison Yes. Mike Weinstein Okay all right and I guess thank you. Operator Our next question comes from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Please go ahead. Travis Miller You mentioned the second quarter, wanted to make the decision then on the fixed price option. Wondered if you could give me a timeline and thoughts on why you wouldn’t wait until November? And then secondly, if you do make that decision in the second quarter, what’s the regulatory schedule look like from that point? Jimmy Addison Let me start and then let Steve jump in. So we said that it’s likely to be Q2. That’s our best judgment. But Steve also said in the opening comments that we have until November. And if we think we need all that time, we will take all that time. So we’re just giving you our most likely estimate of when we think we’ll have a good assessment of Fluor’s input, et cetera, to make that call. And at the point that we feel like we have that and have our information together, we’ll make a filing with the Public Service Commission. And then they have their statutory six months to rule on that. And ballpark, sometime in the middle of that six months, we would be before them to present our information to ask for their support. Steve Byrne Travis, this is Steve. One train of thought would be, take as long as you’ve got to make the decision, which we fully understand. But we did in an ex parte fashion, brief our Public Service Commission on the two options that we would have going forward. And what we told them was as soon as we were complete with our evaluation we would come back to them with the option that we selected. So we intend to do that. One complicator that you might not see that makes my life a little more difficult is that in the interim, I have to sort of keep two sets of books. So I have to base assumptions on both where we’re exercising the fixed price option and we’re not exercising the fixed price option. And if we’re going to exercise one or the other, it’s a lot simpler for me — I can drop the other set of the books. So it takes all kinds of commercial issues off the table and just makes our lives a lot easier. Travis Miller So you briefed the regulators. Has there been any conversation or interaction with interveners or other groups that you think might have opposition to, say, the fixed price option, or at least a preference to one or the other? Steve Byrne Yes, we’ve done a number of briefings, some of which were public. We did a briefing for the legislature, for example. We’ve done briefings with the governor’s Nuclear Advisory Council. And some of the interveners were present during the ex parte briefing we had last November with the Public Service Commission. But there was no interaction with them at that point in time. So we have and will continue to have some interactions, but we don’t know who all of the interveners might be until we file something. And then they’re given the opportunity to intervene. So it’s not a surprise, but we won’t have any more conversation with our Public Service Commission until we make a filing. We aren’t allowed to have any conversation with them about the topic. Operator Our next question comes from Steven Byrd of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Steven Byrd I wanted to just talk about Toshiba for a moment. Toshiba has been in the press of late. And at a high level, just wanted to understand, as you think about their credit position and safeguards and protections for you, how should we think about ways that you can receive protection against potential deterioration in credit quality at Toshiba? Jimmy Addison Yes, well, let me just talk briefly about some contract provisions in a conceptual form, and then I’ll let Steve talk some operationally about the project. So we do have some security provisions in the contract if their ratings fall below a certain grade, and they have triggered those now. And we have initiated that security. And for confidentiality reasons, I’m just not going to get into the details of what that is, how much it is, et cetera. But it’s essentially meant to handle any kind of payment obligations were they not to be able to pay subcontractors, things of that nature. As well as performance obligations if they don’t live up to their terms of the contract, so that’s kind of the financial construct that’s in the contract that we have pulled the trigger on. And I’ll just let Steve talk a little about the project itself. Steve Byrne Yes, we’ve been tracking the situation at Toshiba. Obviously a very large company, I think the Japanese government would be loath to see them fail. But they have submitted obviously a restructuring plan. We were heartened to see in their restructuring plan that they intend to stay in the energy business. While they do intend to shed some of their business lines, they are going to stay in the energy business, which would include nuclear, so that’s a good thing for us. Also we are glad to see that, with the significant changes in leadership and the board at Toshiba, that the person that we have been largely dealing with in the nuclear arena survived that turmoil. And again, we think that’s a good thing. I do believe that Toshiba has been successful at securing some debt from some large Japanese banks just recently. Bankruptcy also doesn’t necessarily mean that things would stop. There are various kinds of bankruptcies. Not that we think it will get to that point, but it doesn’t necessarily mean things at the site will stop. And in addition to the sort of the financial protections that Jimmy just alluded to, we did actually forecast a situation like this back when we were negotiating the EPC contract. Not necessarily that we thought that the larger corporation, Toshiba, might have financial difficulties. But we were really focusing on perhaps the smaller corporations like Westinghouse and/or Shaw might have some financial difficulties. So we do have in the contract some provisions to escrow intellectual properties, such that if there were to be a succession of operations by the contractor, that we could finish the plant on our own. Steven Byrd And just shifting over to the Sanmen project in China, just wondered if you had any update there in terms of the status of Sanmen? Steve Byrne I don’t have any recent updates on Sanmen. We have a team that’s supposed to go over there, I think it’s in the April or May timeframe. So we’ll get more firsthand information then. My understanding is that we still anticipate that Sanmen 1 will come online sometime this year. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Weisel of Macquarie. Please go ahead. Andrew Weisel Two questions, first one is about the new long-term growth rate. Could you maybe talk outside of whether a major pick-up in the economy, what are some factors that could potentially take you to or above the high-end of that 6% level? Jimmy Addison Yes, I think the largest kind of at-risk variable from a positive or a negative standpoint, Andrew, is probably what happens with usage on electric, on the electric side, unrelated to weather. So what goes on in that area I mean, it’s obviously related to the economy, but what do people do with everyday electric consumption? And that’s been very difficult for our industry to model the last several years. It flattened out and was slightly up for us in 2015. That surprised us in a good way, a little. But that continues to be the most difficult thing for us to model. Andrew Weisel Anything on the capital side, obviously the nuclear CapEx estimates are constantly being adjusted. But anything in the base business that might get you, like I said, toward or above the high-end? Or potentially anything that can go wrong that would take you below that low-end? Jimmy Addison We feel pretty good about our CapEx plan. I mean, setting aside the New Nuclear, as you said in your question, which has the dynamic adjustment due to the project. We are doing in the base business the things we need to do to have safe, reliable power. But we aren’t doing a great deal of things beyond that in order to maintain no base rate increases during this period, or pressure on returns, if we were not to have increases. PSNC is probably the biggest story outside of that, with the growth in that area, particularly in the transmission area. And of course, we said earlier that we filed yesterday a notice of a pending rate increase there. But that is fairly well laid out. That could change some, based upon price of steel, and compression, and that kind of thing, over time. But I don’t expect it to vary a great deal. Andrew Weisel And then my other question is about the dividend. Obviously a bigger increase today than what we’ve seen in the past few years. And that takes you right to the midpoint of your targeted pay-out ratio, if we assume the midpoint of the EPS guidance. Going forward, should we expect the dividend to grow more of that kind of 5% range, which is the midpoint of the EPS growth? Or would it be more likely to revert back to the 3% or 4% range like what we’ve seen in the past several years? Jimmy Addison Yes if you’ll bear with me, let me give you 30 seconds of history here. When the recession hit and earnings slowed a great deal, we got outside of our pay-out policy of 55% to 60%. We got up close to 65% — 63% to 65%. We continued to grow dividends during those next few years, but we grew them at about half the rate of earnings growth, so that we could get back within the policy. And now we’re comfortably back within the policy, and our position at this point is, we expect to grow those dividends fairly consistent with earnings growth. Operator Our next question comes from Dan Jenkins with The State of Wisconsin Investment Board. Please go ahead. Dan Jenkins So first of all, I was just curious, on your financing plan for 2016, you show about $1 billion for SCE&G. I was wondering if you could give any insight as to the timing, would that be like throughout the year, or first half, second half? Jimmy Addison Yes, so today, we would model in roughly half of it about mid-year and half of it near the end of the year. That is definitely going to need to be dynamically adjusted to which option we end up electing, and the payment schedule that goes along with that, that we’ve talked about on the last call, as well as briefly on this one. So that’s really going to cause adjustments in that schedule. So I’m fairly sure it will adjust from this, but today’s best guess is about half mid-year and about half near the end of the year. Dan Jenkins Going to the nuclear unit, and in particular, I looked through the report you just filed for the fourth-quarter report. And in particular, it mentioned how the shield building is one of the primary critical path of things — items that’s potentially could, I guess — some of those modules you’re having trouble with, or whatever. So I was wondering if you could expand on that, and what the timing is, you think, when that item will be able to be resolved? Jimmy Addison Yes, I think the shield building items — when you say resolved I think we resolved most of our shield building issues there. The biggest issue that we had really was, they anticipated that the fit-up of this first-of-a-kind items, taking these individual panels that come from Newport News Industrial, or NNI, and then putting them together at the site, welding them up within the tolerances, and then filling them with concrete — was going to be very difficult. We’ve done a lot of mock-ups. We’ve received probably half the panels for the first unit and maybe 25% for the second unit. The placement so far ought to be categorized as going a little better than we had anticipated. So we’ve got 16 courses of steel panels that go in a ring that we eventually will fill with concrete. We’ve placed the first three of those courses already. The first two have been welded, fit and we poured concrete in. And the third course, we recently placed, so we’re welding that. But again, that’s going, I think, better than we had anticipated. So now our focus, since that is the critical path, is insuring that we get the sub-modules, the pieces, the panels, from NNI in a timely fashion. So Westinghouse has taken over the contract that CB&I used to have, so that’s now exclusively a Westinghouse-to-NNI deal, which we think is good. And then the delivery schedule looks to be good. And they’re negotiating a mitigation strategy. And in effect I’ll be going to NNI tomorrow to talk through the mitigation strategy that will accelerate some of those panel deliveries to the site. So I think the shield building, right now it’s going pretty well. But it is our focus area, because it is critical path. Dan Jenkins And then similarly, it talks a little bit about secondary critical paths being the CA20 and CA01 for Unit 3. Are those like parallel paths to the shield building issues, or are they dependent on the shield building path? Jimmy Addison No, Dan, not necessarily dependent on the shield building. But they would come in right in line after the shield building. So once we demonstrate proficiency with shield building, then you focus on whatever is next. So we’re always looking at primary, secondary, tertiary critical paths. So the secondary critical path is, as you mentioned, that CA20 module for the trailing Unit 3. We’ve already set CA20 for Unit 2 obviously. And we did come up with an interesting mitigation strategy for the CA20 module, whereas, on the first unit, on Unit 2, we set it as one piece. On the second one, we’re going to set it in two halves. And so that will save us probably a couple of months in the fabrication. And that’s important, because it actually forms a part of the concrete form work for the rest of the plant. So it’s important that we set that half of that, and use it as a form concrete while we’re working on the second half, and then set the second half. So as of right now, I thought that, that was — that the team on-site came up with that plan, we’re executing on that plan, and we ought to set that first half, CA20, for the second unit, in Q1, late Q1. And then we should set the second half of CA20 for Unit 3 probably early in Q2. Dan Jenkins And somewhat related to that, it mentions on — I don’t know if you have the report in front of you — on page 15 of it, in the middle of it, kind of related to the CA01 and CA20. That on the current schedule, the date doesn’t support the construction schedule for the units, so how is that being impacted in the overall schedule? How should we think about that? How much can that be mitigated? Jimmy Addison Yes, I think a good example of mitigation is the plan that we came up with to split the CA20 module into two halves. And CA01, we’re looking at similar things there. We’re looking to expedite the delivery of the sub-modules from IHI and Toshiba in Japan. Toshiba obviously has all the incentive in the world under the agreement that we negotiated in October to expedite whatever they can. So they both have — since they’re the parent company of Westinghouse, there are both penalties if they don’t do things on time, and there are significant bonus incentives if they do finish on time. So they’ve got as much incentive as we could possibly put into an agreement. So we’ll look to accelerate the schedule for the modules coming out of Japan for CA01. And we’re implementing a strategy to split CA20, set it in two halves instead of one large piece [indiscernible] CA20 portion. Operator Our next question comes from Jonathan Reeder of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Jonathan Reeder One quick point of clarity, so if Fluor’s assessment of the schedule comes back that the current schedule isn’t kind of feasible, how does that work then? Do you have to then negotiate another amended EPC contract before you would file that with the Commission so that the benchmarks, the milestones, are set appropriately in the next kind of approved BLRA? Jimmy Addison Jonathan, I think the short answer is, it depends on how far out they are. If you’ll remember with our last order from the Public Service Commission, we had a plus 18 months for each of the milestones. So as long as we stay within that 18 months, we don’t need to go back in on the schedule. So really, it’s going to depend on how far. But what I more envision is that Fluor might come back and say — in order to get the schedule on time, you have to accelerate this, you might have to bring in more resources than we have in the current plan. So where we think we’re going to peak at, say, 4,000 craft employees, they might come back and say — you need to get 4,500 craft employees. And that kind of an input might drive us towards opting for the fixed price, because more people mean more dollars. Jonathan Reeder Right, so that would impact, I guess, the non-fixed price option, and probably lend more credibility towards selecting the fixed price. That’s the way to think about it? Jimmy Addison Correct. Operator Our next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Michael Lapides A couple of nuts and bolts questions on the gas side of the business. First of all, at PSNC, if you filed later this Spring, when would rates go into effect? I forget, is that a 6- or a 12-month process in North Carolina? Jimmy Addison 6. Michael Lapides Okay. So rates would go in no later than like January 1 next year. And that’s a historical-looking rate case there, or can you do a forward or a big known immeasurable? Jimmy Addison It’s a bit of both. It’s a base historical test year, but you can kind of update for CWIP, as well as cap structure, kind of concurrent with the information being presented and any settlement being discussed or hearing before the Commission. Michael Lapides And on the gas side at SCE&G, when would you file under the Rate Stabilization Act to get a revenue increase? When does that normally happen, and when would that go into effect? Jimmy Addison Yes, so that runs through the end of the heating season, the measurement period through the end of March, and we make the filing in May of each year. And any adjustment either way, if we’re 50 basis points out, would be effective the first of November for the implementation of the typical heating season in the fall although that did not happen this past year. Michael Lapides And then, Steve, one question I just want to make sure I understood that your comments about Toshiba and some of the financial and credit metric issues Toshiba has. And you’ve mentioned that you already started the process with Toshiba to kind of recover some of the security-related funds. Did you do that because of their downgrades? Did you do that because Toshiba is having issues paying some of the local subcontractors, or some of the vendors or suppliers? What was the main driver for starting the process now? Jimmy Addison Hi Michael this is Jimmy, I commented on that earlier, so I’ll clean it up here. No, that’s just procedural. It’s just an option afforded us under the contract. We’ve had no issues that we’re aware of at all with any subs being paid, or anything like that. Operator Our next question comes from Claire Tse of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. David Paz Hi this is actually David Paz. Sorry if I missed this earlier. Does your 4% to 6% EPS growth rate assume any bonus depreciation impact on the New Nuclear units when they come into service in 2019 and 2020? Jimmy Addison Yes, the guidance assumes the bonus depreciation on the base business. We’ve really not contemplated yet or modeled exactly what might happen with the bonus depreciation on the new units themselves. There’s a lot of consideration has to go into that, along with the production tax credits, et cetera, to make sure we maximize the value for the customer. David Paz I see. So it’s not — it essentially hasn’t been modeled in the 4% to 6%? Jimmy Addison Right. David Paz Okay. Do you happen to know, or can I find somewhere in the BLRA filings what the cumulative costs for Unit 2 would be through 2019, as you currently stand today? Jimmy Addison Well, on the amended contract, it’s about — the total price of the units is about $7.1 billion, so you can roughly estimate 50% of that. David Paz Okay. Jimmy Addison David, are you looking for what’s been spent to-date? David Paz Well, not just to-date, but obviously you have the BLRAs by year. But if I knew just what Unit 2’s portion was through that 2019, that’s what I was trying to get a more exact number. But obviously I can ballpark it. Jimmy Addison Yes. We’ve not broken it out between Unit 2 and Unit 3 so yes you’d have to ballpark it. David Paz And then just can you go through the process for how each unit goes into rate base? Like is there a formal filing with the PSC when each unit is completed? How is that process? Jimmy Addison So what we do is, we have to prepare a projected operating cost-year, if you will, so an implementation year. The first phase of the BLRA is to get the plans approved. The second phase happens each year, are the revised rates. And the third is the operating cost going in. And so we’ll have to project what the depreciation and the operating costs, et cetera, are. And that does not require a hearing. It just requires us to present it to the Office of Regulatory Staff and to the Commission like we do the revised rates each year. Operator Our next question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead. Paul Patterson I wanted to touch base with you on the last question there, on the BLRA and the bonus depreciation. It sounds like you guys were trying to — that you were analyzing the PTC and the impact of taking bonus, and what have you. And I’m just trying to get a sense as to what that process is kind of like, and sort of some of the factors that sort of go around that, if you follow me? And how that might change the 4% to 6% potentially? Jimmy Addison Well, the only real impact is likely to be just on financing itself, and any temporary benefits on financing. I mean, bonus depreciation is simply accelerating a deduction that you’re going to get at some point in the future, to an earlier point in time. So you aren’t going to change your total taxes per books, because you’re going to change your deferred taxes. So if you end up with a larger deferred tax credit because of the bonus depreciation, you’re going to end up with lower rate base there in the short run. But in the very short run, it’s just going to have some financing benefits to it, just like the bonus depreciation does on the base business. Paul Patterson Well, that’s what I was wondering. I’m just wondering whether or not — I mean, I understand that. I guess what I’m wondering is, is there any potential impact in the near term if the bonus depreciation was factored into it? In other words, how should we think about the potential sensitivity in the near term if bonus depreciation, which my understanding, is not being factored in now, if it were to come in, can you give us any rule of thumb or thought process as to if there would be impact, and what that impact might be? Jimmy Addison No, we’re talking about something that would potentially be a cash impact in the second half of 2019, so I don’t really see any near-term impact on it. Paul Patterson Okay. So in other words, if the bonus depreciation, there’s no potential for it to take — it would happen then regardless, it wouldn’t be happening any time earlier in terms of your analysis? Jimmy Addison That’s right. That’s correct. Paul Patterson Okay, thanks so much for the clarity. And then just finally on the sales growth, I believe you guys, in your last IRP, were around 1.4% for retail sales growth, I think, just over the long period. Is that still pretty much what you guys are looking at? Jimmy Addison Yes, we’re going to be filing a new IRP, what in the next few weeks Steve? Steve Byrne Yes. Within the next two weeks. Jimmy Addison And we were just reviewing a draft of that earlier this week, and I don’t think where we are at, at this point is materially different. But we’ll be filing that in the next few weeks. Operator Our next question comes from Mitchell Moss of Lord, Abbett. Please go ahead. Jimmy Addison Mitchell, we can’t hear you. Mitchell Moss Sorry about that. Jimmy Addison Okay. Mitchell Moss Okay, good. Just to follow-up on some of the questions on Toshiba’s credit ratings and downgrades. In terms of next steps, if there are further downgrades for Toshiba, is there a — is it kind of like incremental steps of, if there’s a single — if Toshiba’s rating moves down one more notch, there’s sort of one or two more steps? Or is there sort of Toshiba has to fall several rating notches from here before you guys would need to, I guess, do further action regarding taking any security actions? Jimmy Addison Right, so the contractual security provisions I mentioned earlier are binary. Their ratings meet the criteria for us to elect those, or they don’t. And they’ve met those, so there’s no further impacts, there’s no graded scale or anything. Mitchell Moss Okay. So the ratings, where they’re at now, you haven’t needed to take any — there haven’t been any security provisions activated, or there have been? Jimmy Addison There have not been in the past, we recently initiated those and they have 60 days for those to be fulfilled. Mitchell Moss Okay. Jimmy Addison And those are all of the provisions once fulfilled. Mitchell Moss Okay. And just on a more of a technical question, your Slide 13 I believe yes Slide 13 shows debt refinancings at SCANA in 2018 are 170 million utility is 550. Last quarter you had combined it at about 720 all that SCANA and so I just wanted to find out to better understand I see the 550 in terms of just that at the utility I just want those understand 170 million of SCANA debt is? Jimmy Addison Yes, that relates to the South Carolina Generating Company. But it’s one plant that operates solely for SCE&G. All the power goes to SCE&G. So it’s a separately financed plant, but it’s solely related to — we call it GenCo — South Carolina Generating Company. Mitchell Moss Okay. So, it’s not really a holding company debt. Jimmy Addison That’s right but it technically is a subsidiary of SCANA and that’s the reason we presented it that way. Operator And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jimmy Addison for any closing remarks. Jimmy Addison Well. Thank you so far this has been a very eventful and productive year and we’re excited about the new arrangement with Westinghouse and Fleur. We continue to focus on the new nuclear construction and on operating all of our businesses in a safe and reliable manner. We thank you all for joining us today and for your interest in SCANA. Have a good afternoon. Operator The conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a great day. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) 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Portland General Electric Co. (POR) CEO James Piro on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Operator Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Portland General Electric Company’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today is Friday, February 12, 2016. This call is being recorded, and as such, all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. [Operator Instructions] For opening remarks, I would like to turn the conference call over to Portland General Electric’s Director of Investor Relations, Mr. Bill Valach. Please go ahead, sir. William Valach Thank you, Candice, and good morning to everyone. I’m pleased that you’re able to join us today. And before we begin our discussion this morning, I’d like to remind you that we have prepared a presentation to supplement our discussion today, which we’ll be referencing throughout the call. The slides are available on our website at portlandgeneral.com. Referring to slide two, I’d also like to make our customary statements regarding Portland General Electric’s written and oral disclosures and commentary that there will be statements in this call that are not based on historical facts, and as such, constitute forward-looking statements under current law. These statements are subject to factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made today. And for a description of the factors that may occur that could cause such differences, the company requests that you read our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Qs. Portland General Electric’s fourth quarter and full year earnings release were released via our earnings press release and the 2015 annual Form 10-K before the market open today, and the release is available at our website at portlandgeneral.com. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, and this Safe Harbor statement should be incorporated as a part of any transcript of this call. As shown on slide three, leading our discussion today are Jim Piro, President and CEO; and Jim Lobdell, Senior Vice President of Finance, CFO and Treasurer. Jim Piro will begin today’s presentation by providing updates on our operational performance, on Carty construction, our service area economy, and our integrated resource plan. Then, Jim Lobdell will provide more detail around the fourth quarter and full year results, our financing and liquidity, and discuss our outlook for 2016. Following these prepared remarks, we will open the lineup for your questions. And now, it’s my pleasure to turn the call over to Jim Piro. James Piro Thanks, Bill. Good morning and thank you for joining us. Welcome to Portland General Electric’s fourth quarter and full year 2015 earnings call. In 2015, we achieved several key objectives towards meeting our customers’ energy needs, and I’m pleased to share results with you this morning. On today’s call, I’ll provide an overview of our financial results in 2015 and initiate 2016 earnings guidance, give you an update on our operating performance, provide an update on construction at Carty, summarize the economic conditions in our operating area, and outline the status of our 2016 integrated resource plan. Following my remarks, Jim Lobdell will provide details on the fourth quarter, and annual financial results, and end with our key assumptions supporting our outlook for 2016. So let’s begin. As presented on slide four, we recorded net income of $172 million or $2.04 per diluted share in 2015, compared with net income of a $175 million or $2.18 per diluted share in 2014. This decrease in earnings per share was largely due to a record warm winter that resulted in lower residential energy sales compounded by lower than budgeted hydro, wind and the associated lower production tax credits and higher replacement power costs. Management took prudent actions and to temporary operation and maintenance reductions offset approximately $0.09 per share of the financial impacts from weather and power costs. Now looking ahead for 2016, we are initiating full-year earnings guidance of $2.20 to $2.35 per diluted share, which reflects warmer than normal weather and lower wind production in January. Jim will provide more details later in the call. Now for an operational update on slide five, employees across the company did an excellent job in 2015 of improving efficiency, reducing costs and executing our business strategy to deliver value to our customers, shareholders, employees and the communities we serve. Our customer satisfaction remains very high in all segments. Residential business and key customers placed us in the top quartile or better for satisfaction, favorability and trust according to the latest survey results. Also our 2015 generating plant availability was excellent at an average of more than 92% across all of the resources PGE operates. 2015 was the warmest year on record in Oregon. The effects of weather impacted earnings by reducing energy deliveries to the residential sector, especially during the first quarter. As a result, management normally took actions to temporarily reduce operating and maintenance costs, but also work diligently to ensure our delivery system and generating facilities operated extremely well. These actions were critical factors in helping to address the challenges pose by weather and higher power costs throughout the year. In 2015, we continue to demonstrate our leadership in delivering renewable energy and other programs to our customers. In addition to maintaining our standing as the number one renewable program in the nation, we won new awards, established a new offering for our customers and hit a new milestone. Our achievements included PGE’s two wholly-owned wind farms were recognized for being both safe and sustainable. Our newest wind farm Tucannon River is the first energy project in the nation to win the envision, sustainable, infrastructure gold award from the Institute of Sustainable Infrastructure. This award was based on PGE’s contributions related to quality of life, leadership, resource allocation, the natural world and climate risk. Our other wind farm Biglow Canyon earned a Safety and Health Achievement Recognition Award, refer to as SHARP from the Oregon Occupational Safety & Health Division. This is the first time a wind project has qualified for SHARP certification in Oregon and only the second wind project in the United States. Also we enrolled – also we open enrollment on the new renewable power option that enables customers to purchase output from a new 3-magawatt solar installation in the Willamette Valley, providing a way for more customers to support solar generation. And finally, our dispatchable standby generation program passed the 100 megawatt mark. This cost effective customer program helps meet regulatory requirements for non-spinning reserves. I’m very proud of these achievements. Now, turning to slide six for an update on our Carty Generating Station. On December 18, we declared Abeinsa, our engineering, procurement and construction contractor on Carty in default under multiple provisions of the Carty Construction agreement, and we terminated the agreement. As a part of the original construction agreement, PGE required Abeinsa to provide a performance bond to guarantee satisfactory completion of the project, in the event Abeinsa failed to fulfill their contractual obligations. The performance bond was provided by two sureties, Liberty Mutual Surety and Zurich North America for a $145.6 million. Following termination of the construction agreement, PGE in consultation with the Sureties, brought on new contractors and construction resumed during the week of December 21, 2015. Currently, we estimate the total capital expenditures for Carty will be in the range of $620 million to $655 million, including AFDC, and before considering any amounts received from the sureties under the performance bond. And we are targeting an in-service date in July of 2016. The prior Carty construction estimate of $514 million in capital costs, including AFDC was approved by the Oregon Public Utility Commission in the 2016 general rate case. We are currently in discussions with the Sureties regarding their obligations under the performance bond. And we believe they have an obligation under the performance bond to contribute funds towards completing the Carty project. In the event, the total cost incurred by PGE for Carty less any amounts received from the maturities under the performance bond exceeds the OPC approved amount of $514 million or the plant is delayed past July 31, 2016. The company would pursue one or more avenues for regulatory recovery. With regard to an update on the actual construction, all major components are on-site and are currently more than 700 construction workers on-site representing key contractors, including Dean Zimmerman, Sargent & Lundy and Black & Veatch. Now to move to slide seven, where we provide a summary of the company’s current capital expenditure forecasts from 2016 to 2020. These amounts potentially could be augmented with incremental investment related to natural gas supply, system reliability and operational efficiencies that provide value to our customers. In addition, the graph does not include any potential capital of projects from the outcome of our 2016 integrated resource planning process. We will continue to provide updates on our capital expenditure forecast in future earnings calls. Turning to slide eight, Oregon continues to exhibit several positive economic trends. First, unemployment in Oregon in December was 5.4% and approaching the range considered full-employment. Unemployment in our service area was even lower at 4.7% and compares favorably to the U.S. unemployment rate of 5%. Secondly, overall business expansion and new real estate investments continued in 2015. Investors have targeted Portland as a desirable West Coast location and evidenced by the large number of real estate transactions during the year and proposed new projects. With growth in both the number of local startups and in large Silicon Valley companies locating in offices in the region, the Portland Metro area has become one of the fastest growing areas for high-tech employment. In addition, large high-tech industrial customers continue to expand our service area and contribute to weather-adjusted load growth of more than 2% in 2015 over 2014. This is net of approximately 1.5% in energy efficiency and excludes one large paper company who ceased operations in late 2015. Finally, Oregon was once again the number one state for in migration in 2015, according to a study from United Van Lines issued in January 2016 this is the third year in a row that Oregon has received the number one rating. PG’s average customer count continues to increase at approximately 1% year-over-year and looking forward, we expect weather-adjusted load growth in 2016 of 1%, net of approximately 1.5% in energy efficiency and excluding the one large paper company. On to slide nine. With regard to the integrated resource plan, we plan to file the 2016 IRP in the second half of 2016. The IRP assumes a 20-year planning horizon with an action plan for the period 2017 through 2021. The plan will address multiple issues including replacement of our Boardman Plant, which will cease operating on coal at the end of 2020, meeting the renewable portfolio standard of 20% by 2020, additional energy efficiency and demand side actions, additional capacity that needs to meet our customers, and several other topics. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Jim Lobdell, who will go into more depth on our financial and operating results for 2015, and provide the assumptions for our 2016 earnings guidance. Jim? James Lobdell Thank you, Jim. Turning to slide 10. For the fourth quarter of 2015, we recorded a net income of $51 million or $0.57 per diluted share, compared to net income of $43 million or $0.55 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2014. This increase was primarily driven by the addition of Port Westward Unit 2 and the Tucannon River Wind Farm in customer prices, AFDC related to the construction of the Carty Generating plant, and a reduction to O&M in the fourth quarter of this year, offset by an increase in share count 2015, related to the final draw in June under the Equity Forward Sale Agreement. Also, targeted earnings for the fourth quarter 2015 were reduced by warm weather, which had a negative impact of $0.05 in comparison to normal. As shown on slide 11, for the full year 2015, we recorded net income of a $172 million or $2.04 per diluted share, compared with the $175 million or $2.18 per diluted share for 2014. This decrease was largely due to the warmest year on record in Oregon, resulting in lower residential energy sales, compounded by lower than planned hydro and wind conditions, resulting in higher replacement power costs, and lower than anticipated production tax credits, and an increase in share count due to the timing of the final draw under the Equity Forward Sale Agreement. These decreases were partially offset by earnings from two additional generating clients, placed in service, Carty AFDC and a strong effort to temporarily reduce O&M spending for the year. Moving onto slide 12. For the full year, total revenues decreased $2 million. This decrease in revenues was primarily due to a reduction in residential energy deliveries, in addition to lower wholesale and other revenues. These decreases were partially offset by a 1% increase in customer prices. Purchased power and fuel expense decreased $52 million year-over-year, driven by an 8% decline in the average variable power cost per megawatt hour. The decrease was largely driven by a 3% decrease in the average price of purchase power and the economic displacement of Boardman in 2015. Net variable power costs is reported for regulatory purposes were $3 million below the baseline of the power costs adjustment mechanism. However, when adjusting for a couple of one-time transactions which did not flow to the company’s income statement. In 2015, net variable power costs were $6 million above the baseline, reflecting lower wind and hydro generation, partially offset by optimization of the overall power supply portfolio. This compares to $7 million below in 2014. Moving on to slide 13, operating and maintenance costs totaled $507 million in 2015, $23 million higher than in 2014 and $13 million below the midpoint of our original 2015 guidance range of $510 million to $530 million. The higher costs in 2015 were driven primarily by the following increases, $9 million and costs related to the addition of the Port Westward Unit 2 and Tucannon River Wind Farm and $14 million in administrative and general costs including $5 million increase in information and technology expense and an increase of $3 million in non-labor and outside services expense. The reduction in O&M spending relative to our original guidance reflects the company’s commitment to attempt to offset reduced earnings from warm weather in the first quarter of 2015. Depreciation and amortization expense was at the midpoint of our guidance range and increased $4 million of $301 million in 2014 to $305 million in 2015. The increase was primarily driven by a $26 million increase expense and the capital additions offset by a $22 million reduction of the amortization of deferred regulatory liabilities from the Trojan spent fuel settlement and tax credits as they were refunded to customers in 2015. Interest expense increased $18 million in 2015 compared to 2014. This was driven primarily by a $9 million increase resulting from lower allowance for borrowed funds used during construction, combined with a $7 million increase in interest expense due to higher debt outstanding in 2015. Other income net decreased $16 million year-over-year as a result of the $16 million decrease and the allowance for equity funds used during construction as the Tucannon River Wind Farm and Post Westward Unit 2 were put into service in December 2014. Lastly, income tax has decreased $16 million year-over-year, largely due to a $14 million increase in production tax credit and the addition of the Tucannon River Wind Farm. The company’s effective tax rate decreased to 20.7% from 26% in 2014. We did not take bonus depreciation in 2015, and we have not taken it since 2010, because we have favored using production tax credits and other state tax credits with expiration dates over using bonus depreciation. Given the extension of the bonus depreciation through 2019, we will continue to assess our approach each year. On to slide 14, we continue to maintain a solid balance sheet, including strong liquidity and investment grade credit ratings. As of December 31, 2015, we had $550 million in cash, available short-term credit and letter of credit capacity, $867 million of first mortgage bond issuance capacity and the common equity ratio of 50.5%. The company has a $500 million revolving credit facility to meet the company’s liquidity needs, which has a maturity date of November 2019. The company has additional letter of credit facilities totaling $160 million. In January of this year, PGE issued a $140 million of 2.51% Series First Mortgage Bonds, which were used to fund an early redemption of two outstanding Series First Mortgage Bonds. The company plans to potentially issue up to an additional an $160 million of long-term debt in 2016. Moving onto slide 15, on November 3, 2015, The Oregon Public Utility Commission issued an order that when combined with customer credits results in an overall increase in customer prices of approximately 0.7%. These prices were effective in two phases, a 2.5% decrease in the January 1, 2016, and a 3.3% increase when Carty comes into service, provided it happens by July 31, 2016. The changing customer prices will reflect a return on equity of 9.6%, a capital structure of 50% debt and 50% equity, a cost of capital of 7.51%, a rate base of $4.4 billion, and an annual revenue increase of $12 million. As shown on slide 16, we’re initiating full year 2016 earnings guidance of $2.20 to $2.35 per diluted share. This guidance is based on warmer than normal weather, and lower wind production in January 2016, which resulted in roughly an $0.08 impact on earnings. Additional assumptions include the following: retail delivery growth of approximately 1%, weather adjusted, and excluding one large paper company; average hydro conditions, wind generation based on five years of historic production or forecasted studies when historical data isn’t available; normal internal plant operations, operating and maintenance costs between $515 million and $535 million; depreciation and amortization expense between $315 million and $325 million; and the Carty Generating Station in service by July 2016, at approximately the OPUC authorized capital amount of $514 million. Back to you, Jim. James Piro Thanks. As we begin 2016, we are moving forward on initiatives that drive value for our customers and shareholders. Slide 17 displays our key objectives for 2016. First, maintain our high level of operational excellence with a focus on employee and public safety, meeting our operational and performance goals and meeting our financial performance targets. Second, bring Carty Generating Station into service, on or before July 31, 2016. And third work collaboratively, with all of our stakeholders, to prepare our 2016 integrated resource plan and its associated action plan, to meet our customer’s future energy needs, using resources that provide the best long-term balance of cost and risk. And now operator, we are ready for questions. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Michael Weinstein of UBS. Your line is now open. Michael Weinstein Hi, good morning. James Piro Good morning, Michael. James Lobdell Good morning. Michael Weinstein Hey on the results for 2015, we say that you have a temporary reduction O&M of about $0.09 I believe you said at the beginning of the call. James Piro Yes. Michael Weinstein Okay. So, why is that temporary and I’m guessing that since, it’s temporary does that $0.09 is now responsible for higher O&M in 2016 guidance. So, going forward in 2017, we would subtract that $0.09 out again to normalize? James Lobdell No, Mike, I wouldn’t do that. What we did in 2015 was to the extent that we could push off any particular activities and non-impact safety and reliability or customer satisfaction, we took account for that, but I wouldn’t add that back into the following year, just here point in time. We still need to assess or what needs to happen there. James Piro Yeah. In 2016, our O&M is in line with what was allowed in the general rate case and that’s for work that needs to be done on our system, to meet our reliability and customer service obligation. What we looked at in 2015, we’re delaying some types of work and it’s not something we can do permanently. Michael Weinstein Right. And also on the Carty project, is there any chance that you guys can finish the project before July right now or is it something you’re willing to talk about in terms of is the project ahead of schedule or is it exactly on schedule and any slippage by the overall? James Piro Well, we have a schedule and it has this completing the project in July and we have some room, but everything is going to have to go perfect. We have to go through the startup, we have to get all the construction work completed. As I mentioned earlier, we mobilized enough people on the site to do the work. Now, we have to see the productivity and we have to see everything go as we have planned. And so, we’re going to watch it pretty carefully. We’ll know a lot more at our next earnings call. But I would say everything is fully going at this point, and we’re moving and things are happening at the site. Michael Weinstein At what point do you think you’ll finish negotiating with surety providers to figure out exactly how much they are going to assume? James Piro That’s going to be a process. We do have a meeting scheduled in March, but that will be just the first step in the process with them. Michael Weinstein Okay. All right. Thank you very much. Operator Thank you. And our next question comes from Paul Ridzon of KeyBanc. Your line is now open. Paul Ridzon Good morning. How are you? James Piro Good morning. James Lobdell Good morning, Paul. Paul Ridzon Can you parse out the $0.08 headwind we’re facing? How much of that is wind and versus weather? James Lobdell Most of that is all weather, and about $0.02 of it represents wind. And then there’s the PTCs in there as well, which is about a 7.5. Paul Ridzon Okay. Just back to Mike’s question, so how much of the $0.09, how much was differing versus actually just not doing, and then how much of that $0.09 is creeping into this 2016? James Lobdell The O&M forecast that we have provided, the range is to do the work, we need to do in 2016. Things that we didn’t get done in 2015 or delayed or basically incorporated in our budget for 2016. So, we have a budget now. We have a work, we have to get completed and I think, we are aligned with our budget for this year. James Piro And that’s embedded in our guidance. Paul Ridzon Okay. And then just on history of Carty, $514 million was approved and now you’re looking $620 million or more. What kind of – what’s the delta there? James Lobdell We expect cost to $140 million, we check the high-end versus the $514 million. So basically what we’ve got there is we have to remove liens that have been perfected associated with the site. We’ve got a lot of rework that needs to be done, cost to complete the construction, which is closed construction and start-up, site stabilization, their delayed costs that can include productivity, AFEDC and contingency and other costs. Paul Ridzon You are successful in securing the full surety. Carty will come into under budget? James Piro Well, I think it’ll come in pretty much at budget. I think the 514 included the contractor meeting the obligations under the agreement. So, our sense would be is, if the sureties do what we think they’re responsible for doing, we would come in at our budget amount. Paul Ridzon Okay. Thank you very much. James Piro Thanks, Paul. Operator Thank you. And our next question comes from Chris Turnure of JPMorgan. Your line is now open. James Piro Good morning, Chris. Chris Turnure Good morning, guys. James Lobdell Good morning, Chris. Chris Turnure Could you give some more color on Carty? Just another question on that front. How do you plan on financing the incremental cash that you’re going to need to fund that this year? And have you had any conversations with the commission yet, and kind of walking them through what’s going wrong throughout the process and to the degree that you kind of do about it even before late December? James Piro Well, the first part of the question is, how are we going to go about funding the incremental capital associated with the project. I think as we have mentioned previously, we got plenty of capacity under our short-term earnings, access to bank loans that we can provide in order to cover any incremental costs that we have to fund that we’re not getting from the sureties associated with the project. On the regulatory side… James Lobdell Yeah. I can cover that. We’ve been keeping the PUC informed throughout the process. We recently have been asked to provide an update on Carty through a public meeting. However, it hasn’t been scheduled yet. Probably, that meeting would happen sometime in March or April. Chris Turnure Okay. And have you disclosed, how much, let’s say a one month delay in the project past July 31 would mean for EPS? James Lobdell No. We haven’t. Chris Turnure Okay. And then, my second question is just on the legislation now kind of making its way through the legislature over there. Can you give me some color on what do you think the chances of passage are, and then what that would mean for the next, let say five years to seven years of capital deployment and renewable growth opportunities for you guys, because certainly in the long-term it would be a big benefit, but I am focused a little bit more on the near-term. James Lobdell Yeah. So let me give you an update on – it’s called the Oregon clean electricity plan, it’s called H.B. 4036 is the actual bill number. It just passed out of the House’s Energy and Environmental Committee on a 6-4 vote. It will now go to the floor for a vote at the House level. If it passes there than it would move to the Senate Committee, and then worked its way to the Senate. The bill essentially does two major things; number one, it eliminates coal in Oregon by 2030 and for us up to five years later for Colstrip up to 2035. And then, it increases our renewable portfolio standard targets, mostly in the out year. So it’s a 50% standard by 2040. The interim targets are 27% in 2025 versus the current RPS standard of 25%. 35% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 50% by 2040. So you can see from those new numbers, the bulk of the changes would be in the outer years, as we go to a 50% RPS standard. This will all be factored into our integrated resource plan as we work through the process in this case, because we wouldn’t want to go long generation as we think about a higher RPS standard. So, it’s all been factored into our planning at this point, but it is all dependent on that while past seen the legislature and signed by the Governor. So, that’s kind of where it is. We have got support, a number of people are supporting the measure, and there is some opposition to the measure. So, we’ll just have to see how it plays out. Chris Turnure Great. That’s helpful. Thanks. Operator Thank you. And our next question comes from Brian Russo of Ladenburg Thalmann. Your line is now open. Brian Russo Hi, good morning. James Piro Good morning. Brian Russo Could you just remind us the amount of capacity you need to meet the 20% RPS in 2020, any backup capacity necessary and then, the number of megawatts you need to replace on Boardman? James Piro So, in 2020, the RPS standard goes another 5%. It’s probably a very similar to Tucannon River Wind Farm, it’s probably around 100 average megawatts. So, it’d be very similar to adding another Tucannon River Wind Farm. If you’re thinking about the size of that, that was about 267 megawatt of nameplate capacity. So, a lot of it will depend on capacity factor. So, that’s kind of what we’re looking at it. The timing of that still kind of up in the air. With the extension of the PTCs, we’ll have to evaluate when is the right timing for that unit, because we do have renewable energy credits that we can apply. And so, we’re looking at what’s the right timing of that, especially given the extension of the production tax credit. That will all be a topic of our integrated resource planning discussion. As it relates to Boardman, our piece of the capacity is about 520 megawatts, hydropower owns 10% of the project. And so, that is again being evaluated on what to – how we replace Boardman in the IRP. Obviously, I think, prior to H.B. 4036, I think our thinking was likely a natural gas prior plant would be that the type of thing we would do, and we would do and we will have to do an RFP like we did before, but as you know, we’ve said before, Carty has been designed as the two-unit site. So, it would be a very good site to look at the second unit there. But with a 50% RPS standard, we have to kind of consider the entire mix in the long-term trajectory and what’s the right kinds of resources we’re going to need. So, it’s not clear to me at this point, what we will do to replace Boardman, whether it will be more capacity in renewables or base load gas generation. So, that really is the topic of the IRP and we’re just now in the process of developing portfolios that we can look at to see what provides the best balance of cost and risk going forward. Brian Russo And would you need backup power for the – an additional wind farm? James Piro Yeah. As we look at the renewables, as you know, they are not firm energy, at least we haven’t found at this point that really correlate directly with our loads. So, it would be a wind farm, backed up by some type of capacity resource, either a simple cycle turbines or reciprocating engines like Port Westward Unit 2. Again, we have capacity needs. That’s something that’s been identified in the integrated resource plant as we look at what our loss of load probability study show us. And so, that is going to have to be addressed also. But our sense is, we’re going to need additional capacity as we go to a higher RPS standard. Brian Russo Okay. So, just back of the envelope $1,100 a KW for CCGT and maybe $1,500 a KW for wind, I know you talked in probably a $1 billion of potential spend, is that reasonable? James Piro Potentially, again, as you know, we have to go through an RFP. We have to ensure that we have the least cost, lowest risk projects to bring forward. As we’ve said before, we would always want to include our own self build options and I think we’ve demonstrated from the construction of Port Westward Unit 2 and Tucannon, that we can deliver those projects on time and on budget. So, we will want to provide our own projects. We have some sites that are very competitive sites, at least on the gas side, and we’ll continue to look for those wind farms, and wind projects that can meet our renewable standard. Brian Russo And when would you expect to get acknowledgement from the OPUC, and when would be RFP process start, and then finish? James Piro Probably in 2017, we expect the acknowledgement from the commission. James Lobdell We’ll file in the later part of this year. We would expect a position decision in early part of 2017. Then, we will go into an RFP process, where hopefully we’d know the decision by late 2018 and then, move forward from there. Brian Russo Okay. Great. And then, what are the regulatory options for recovery of the Carty costs above what’s in the general rate case? James Piro Well, there’s couple of things. First of all, it depends on what the number is. Obviously, if we’re above that, but only slightly, we’ll evaluate that, and we’ll have to understand the reasons for that. But, the way we would do that is through general rate case, and next subsequent rate case. At this point, we’re not planning on filing a 2017 general rate case, looking to 2018 as a potential. We will then file that case with what we think our prudent capital costs, and we will go through the process to support those costs. If the project is delayed beyond July 31, we will enter into discussions with the stakeholder groups to talk about options to recover the costs. A lot of it will be dependent on when that project will be going online, and we’ll determine what’s the best way to move that forward. We have options and – but a lot of it depends on when that project would come online. Brian Russo Okay. And then, I assume that midpoint of your guidance assumes a zero balance on the PCAM? James Lobdell Yes. Brian Russo And when was the net variable cost set in terms of gas prices or prevailing commodity prices? James Lobdell It was set in November, when we file our final update, which includes cost curves and all our contracts that we have in place. Usually, we’re about 95% hedged against our forward position. So, we’ve locked in those financial or physical contracts on gas as well as any electric purchase contracts. So we’re pretty balanced in November. So, than the variabilities we deal with are hydro, wind and plant availability. So those are things that we feel. The good news is that hydro is about normal this year. We’ve had a really good snowpack early on and we’ll have to see how it goes for the rest of the year, because that normal forecast does assumes normal precipitation for the rest of the cycle. So, we’ll watch that pretty carefully as we see a snowpack build hopefully. Brian Russo And what appears to be lower gas prices now versus I guess what was implied in November, are you able to optimize your generation fleet to kind of capture that spread, so to speak? James Lobdell Not necessarily. A lot of it will depend on what happens in markets in terms of opportunity, but our plans are committed to meet our retail load. And so, we’ve already locked in essentially the gas price for those plants to run and meet our retail load. There may be some opportunity, but probably the only real value is that, if for example, we have lower wind, a lower gas prices would lower our replacement cost instantly with hydro. But on the flipside, if we have a lot of hydro, low gas prices depressed the market price, so we don’t get as much value. So it has kind of pluses and minuses as we think about it. But right now, we’re hedged against where our loads and resources are. Brian Russo Okay. Thank you. Operator Thank you. And our next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. James Piro Hi, Michael. James Lobdell Hi, Michael. Michael Lapides Hey, guys. Congrats on a good year and a good start to 2016. Just curious, thinking about the RFP process and thinking about the IRP as well, does the State of Oregon need capacity or energy or does simply your service territory does and so one of the alternatives in all of this process could be simply increasing the amount of power that could be sent into the Greater Portland area from other parts of the state. The reason that’s, I’m kind of thinking through that is, there are – we’ve seen in other states over the years, Louisiana, Mississippi great example of this also in the desert Southwest, where merchant projects that were in a state like in Oregon or like Louisiana or Arizona, roundup getting bid into RFPs and sold at a price that was well below new build cost. Now, some of the ones in your state, they’re not really in downtown Portland, so there it have to be a transmission alternative, but I think that largely will depend on, is it a state need or is it a part of the state need for new capacity in energy? James Piro So, let me talk about that generally. In the last IRP, projects that were available or bid in, and they were not competitive with new generation, just because of higher heat rates and older units. So they were not successful. And to that extent, nothing has been built since then to my knowledge in the region in terms of new gas fire generation. James Lobdell And then, on top of that, you got several plants that will be taken out of the regional mix, but essentially are the – plants will be going away, Boardman will be going away in 2020, and what has been added to the market place has been mostly in variable energy resources… James Piro Under a contract. James Lobdell Yeah. James Piro Typically under contract. So, you think about Oregon, and maybe the region, I see has been more capacity deficit, our study show that. And there is just not capacity sitting on the sideline. On an energy basis, it’s a really kind of tough issue as we see all these renewables show up in the system. Obviously, what’s going on in California with the Duck Curve and all the solar energy down there, those are the things we’re looking at, but the strong to California is only so large. And so, we have to think about the reliability of that supply as well as the costs. So, those are things that we are evaluating in the IRP, but I would clearly say, there is a need for additional capacity in the region, especially as we add in more variable resources. Michael Lapides Got it, guys. Thanks. One follow-up, unrelated to that. You made some minor changes to your base CapEx forecast in today’s disclosure. Can you just kind of walk us through what drove those changes? James Lobdell Yeah. Effectively, it was just a shifting of dollars associated with our customer information, and meter data management project, and that was essentially it. Michael Lapides Meaning, moving stuff into 2016 from it, can you just like – which years went up, which years went down and what was the – and was that the main driver of that, when I think about 2016, 2017, 2018 or so? James Lobdell Well, the movement of dollars from 2017 to 2016. Michael Lapides Got it. Okay. So, you just moved up the project a little bit. James Lobdell Yes. Michael Lapides Got it. Thanks, guys. Much appreciate it. James Lobdell Thanks Mike. Operator Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock. Your line is now open. Paul Patterson Good morning. James Piro Hi Paul. Paul Patterson Just on H.B. 4036, looks quite ambitious, and I haven’t checked. When it passed, I guess it was about yesterday. Were there amendments that addressed some of the issues that I guess are being brought up by the Oregon PUC? I guess, was there any big changes, or would those issues addressed or do you think that – I mean, it looks like it passed with a pretty good margin, I mean I’m just sort of wondering? James Piro Yeah. It passed to explore, I don’t recall if there is – I was talking to Dave yesterday, there weren’t any major amendments, and there might have been a few tweaks, but nothing that was material to way legislation would setup. I think the important thing to note is that it does still have the cost cap, and that’s currently in the legislation today. It also added another standard around reliability. So it has provided certain protections for our consumers that we think are adequate to address the concerns the commission has raised. Our evaluation looking at price impacts on consumers over the lifecycle is Bill, is somewhere in the 1.5% higher prices. So it’s not materially higher. As I said, the bill has passed, the House Committee, it’s going to the House floor for vote. It can then move to the Senate, where we could see potential other amendments, and we’ll have to see how that plays out in the coming weeks. Paul Patterson It looks like it’s on schedule for the House passage next week – early next week? James Piro That’s correct. And then, it goes to the Senate, Senate Business and Transportation Committee. Paul Patterson Okay. And is energy efficiency part of the RPS standard or is that separate? In other words, I mean, does energy, because I did notice this regional for state thing that was big pushing energy efficiency, is that part of getting to be the standard? James Piro No, because that just reduces our load energy efficiency. It just measures that. We don’t want to continue our commitment to energy efficiency. We use the Energy Trust of Oregon to determine what is the least cost, lowest risk energy efficiency and how to acquire that. We do a very detailed study in our IRP to determine what that is. And so, I don’t think that changes dramatically in this legislation. It just continues to support the need for energy efficiency, but it does not count against the RPS standard in a sense that it’s part of the – how we meet retail load. It would reduce retail load, but it doesn’t necessarily count as – against the percentages. Paul Patterson Okay. Excellent. And then, just in terms of obviously this CapEx forecast, we should expect that once this – we get more information on H.B. 4036 and your IRP, that – those numbers will probably be considerably higher, I would expect, correct? James Lobdell Yeah. I think the question we have to ask and we’ll be looking at this in the IRP is, given the shutdown of Boardman in this high RPS standard, what’s the right timing and quantity of renewables we need to add to the grid, kind of to get us to the 50%. Because you wouldn’t want to necessarily agitate base load gas generation, and then, find out that you have too much generation as you go to a 50% RPS. So we’re going to have to think very, very smartly about the right mix of resources and the trajectory to get to that 50% RPS, and the bill does allow us to may be pre-build ahead of the need if we can demonstrate that’s the cost effective thing to do. So that’s really the magic here in trying to figure this all out is, what’s the right timing of doing this in a way that provides the least cost, lowest risk for our customers. Paul Patterson Okay. Great. The rest of my questions have been answered. Thanks so much. James Lobdell Thank you. James Piro Thank you. Operator Thank you. And our next question comes from Michael Weinstein of UBS. You line is now open. Michael Weinstein Hey guys. A quick follow-up question. On the legislation, as a co-owner of Colstrip 3 and Colstrip 4, just wondering what do you see, how do you anticipate the disposition of that plan once coal by wires eliminate 2035 for it, under the legislation, what do you see happening with it? James Piro So, we’ve thought a lot about that. Obviously, our plan under this would be to recover all the capital costs and decommissioning costs through 2030 or 2035 depending on – the legislation allows us to keep the plan in customer prices through 2035. So, beyond that, the question is, what would we do with the plant. There is options we would consider obviously, if the plant continues to operate, it has value, we could either sell it in an auction, we could sell the power in the market. Those are two considerations as we look forward. And those are the things we’ll have to evaluate as we get closer to that period. And so, we don’t have any answer yet, but we have options. Michael Weinstein On minority owner. James Piro Yeah. We’re a 20% owner in Colstrip 3 and Colstrip 4. So, it’s not like we can decide to shut the project down. And so, we will look at that as we get closer to that timeframe, but those are the two options we would consider. Michael Weinstein Okay. I’m just wondering if there’s been any moves to try to push to sell to [indiscernible] just like they’re doing with Colstrip 1 and Colstrip 2? James Piro Well, yeah, I understand that. And… James Lobdell Yeah. James Piro In Washington, they have a prohibition from utilities buying coal output also. So, I know they’re working on their own issues around units 1, 2, 3, and 4. And we’ll have a lot to see when we get there. I think the landscape can change. Montana is a potential market. Obviously, there are other places that power could be sourced to. Yeah. Michael Weinstein Right. Okay. Thank you. Operator Thank you. And our next question comes from [indiscernible]. Your line is now open. Unidentified Analyst Hi, good morning. James Piro Good morning. James Lobdell Good morning. Unidentified Analyst Just a question on slide 14 regarding the financing. You guys have year marked about a $160 million of additional bonds you may issue. Is that currently embedded in the future testier that you have this year, and then in guidance? What’s the situation with the interest related to that? And what was the site, if you issue it or not? James Piro Yeah. Now, it is included in the guidance already. Unidentified Analyst It’s included in the rate case too. James Piro Including the rate case too. Unidentified Analyst Because I think, do we update the numbers for those bonds or? James Piro Updated for the bonds of … James Lobdell January. James Piro January, yeah. Unidentified Analyst Okay. James Piro Great thing. If you aligned up with the guidance that we have. Unidentified Analyst Okay. And then, just one follow-up question. Now, this is kind of an asset, I just want to make sure I understand it correctly. On the surety bonds, by when do you need to have some kind of resolution on those before you decide to take action at the commission? I mean, you can have the plant in service by your required service date, but when do you need to know about the recovery of the surety bonds before you go to the commission? James Piro Well, right now, our prices are based about on the $540 million, and that’s kind of the agreement we have, the next time we would address this in a subsequent general rate case. And so, we would obviously need to have that resolved by then, but if we’re looking at a 2018 general rate case, we’ve got sufficient time to address that. Again, our hope is that we will get full compensation for the cost exceedance, but that’s obviously something we have to work through with the sureties. Unidentified Analyst Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you and congratulations. James Piro Okay. Operator Thank you. And our next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Michael Lapides Hey guys. Just a quick question on rate case timing again, meaning going forward. It doesn’t sound like you are going to do a lot of construction on stuff related to the RFO or RFP until the 2019 timeframe. Do you anticipate filing again between now and then? James Lobdell Yeah. Right now, our thinking is, 2018 general rate case, but a lot of that will depend on load growth, inflation, cost controls, just a number of factors that we look at. We clearly have not filed for a 2017 rate case and don’t anticipate doing that, absence something going on with Carty. So, we would likely look at 2018. We will make that decision till probably November of this year, when we finish our budget to be filed in February of 2017 for a 2018 general rate case, if we decided to do that. A lot of it will also depend on interest rates, what return on equities are doing. So, there are a whole bunch of factors will go into that decision. But right now, that’s kind of what we’re pointing towards, but we haven’t made a final decision. Michael Lapides Got it. So, you would file in 2017 for 2018, but that really wouldn’t incorporate many of the stuff coming out of the RFP process? James Lobdell Not at this point now. And to the extent there are renewable resources, we do have the tracking mechanism under the current RPS standard, that those can get track in directly when they go into service. So, we’d only be either capacity resources or something other type of thermal resources that would have to get, whether we require a general rate case. So, we could actually track in the renewables with the current standards we have and the mechanism we have. Michael Lapides Got it, guys. Thank you. Much appreciate it. James Lobdell Thank you. Operator Thank you. James Piro Okay. I think that’s the end of the calls. We appreciate your interest in Portland General Electric and invite you to join us when we report our first quarter 2016 results in late April. Thanks, again, and have a great day. Operator Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today’s conference. This does conclude the program, and you may all disconnect. Have a great day, everyone. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) So our reproduction policy is as follows: You may quote up to 400 words of any transcript on the condition that you attribute the transcript to Seeking Alpha and either link to the original transcript or to www.SeekingAlpha.com. All other use is prohibited. 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