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The Labor Market Could Bring Down GLD

Summary The Greek drama keeps moving the markets and the price of GLD also reacts mainly via the movements in the foreign exchange markets. The price of GLD is likely to keep reacting to the progress of the U.S. economy. The non-farm payroll report could move again the price of GLD and raise the odds of a rate hike in September. The Greek drama continues to lead the news cycle and keeps to move the euro against major currencies including the U.S. dollar. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the euro could have an adverse impact on the price of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ). Besides the ongoing bets of whether Greece exits the Eurozone, this week we also have the release of the non-farm payroll report. This report is likely to keep moving the gold market in general and GLD, as the markets try to figure whether the current economic conditions are good enough for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in September. The decision of Alexis Tsipras to call for a referendum is understandable given the high stakes involved, but should have been made a while back, and not so close to the IMF’s payment deadline. For now, the polls suggest the Greeks are likely to accept this deal. Because they are more frightened of what lies ahead with a Grexit over remaining in the Eurozone or in other words better the devil you know… Behind door number one, in the event of a Grexit, the Greeks could face very weak currency, high inflation, unstable, if at all, banking system for years to come. But door number two isn’t too appealing either: elevated unemployment, much higher taxes, lower pensions, and high debt payments for decades. At least under this status quo option, they keep having a strong currency and a working baking system. Who would want to make this lesser of two evils choice? When it comes to the potential impact of the news about a Greek exit or default on its debt on the euro, the situation isn’t straight forward. For one, investors and traders react to the uncertainty following a messy Greek exit with falling stock prices throughout Europe, Asia and U.S. and falling euro against leading currencies. But over the longer run, such a scenario should move the euro upward as part of the weakness of this currency relates to the high debt European countries including Greece. One fewer highly leveraged country in the EU should lead, down the line, to an appreciation of the euro. For GLD, even though higher uncertainty in the financial markets tends to play in favor of precious metals, the potential appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the euro could drag down the price of GLD. (click to enlarge) Source of data: Author’s calculations The other big news item for the week is the non-farm payroll report. This week, the report will be released on Thursday and could move the price of GLD as it has in the past. Last month, the employment report showed a 280,000 gain in number of jobs, which was higher than expected. This time, the market estimates a gain of 231,000 jobs. If the report were to show a higher increase in number of jobs, this could lead to another drop in the price of GLD. (click to enlarge) Source of data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Google Finance Besides the short-term impact of the news of the progress of the U.S. labor market, this news could also raise the odds, which have gone down after the last FOMC meeting, of a rate hike in September. Another issue to keep tabs on is the changes in wages, which have gone up slowly in the past few months – the growth rate reached 2.3% last month. A higher growth rate could also raise the odds of a potential rate hike – it’s another closely monitored data point in the labor report, and so far this year, we have only seen a modest increase in wages. As of the beginning of this week, the implied probabilities for a rate hike in September have reached 14%; for the October meeting, the odds are 28%; and for December, the probabilities are only 50%. These odds still suggest the market isn’t convinced the FOMC plans to raise rates in September. The upcoming non-farm payroll report could have another short-term impact on the price of GLD and move the odds of the possible rate hike in the coming months. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be released next week, but aren’t likely to provide more guidance than the last FOMC meeting. So far, the Fed keeps using the same mantra – the decision to raise rates will be “data dependent” – and as such, we will have to continue to closely monitor the progress of the U.S. economy. For more, please see: ” Gold and Inflation – Is there is relation? ” Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF: A Fund Worth Yodeling About

An established fund whose top holdings include premier global companies. The heaviest weightings have low volatility, are cyclically defensive and have above average dividend yields. The fund is diversified, yet intelligently structured with a strong defensive bias. Switzerland has been the financial safe haven for centuries and naturally, most people think of those legendary ‘Swiss Banks’. What goes mostly unnoticed, though, is their well-diversified export economy with global reach through premier companies. BlackRock’s iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF (NYSEARCA: EWL ) offers perhaps the best product for a long term investment. First, the EWL’s fees and expenses are capped, although the prospectus does not seem to differentiate its management fees formula for capped or uncapped funds. The fund’s objective is to ” track the investment results of an index composed of Swiss equities” in particular, targeting 85% of the MSCI Switzerland 25/50 index of large and mid-cap companies. (click to enlarge) (Source: iShares) The fund’s nets assets are over $1.228 billion invested in 40 holdings. There are over 35.6 million shares outstanding and it trades an average of 115,744 a session. It currently trades at a premium of 0.79% to its Net Asset Value. The average P/E ratio of total holdings is 18.12. The average price to book is 2.39. The share’s beta is 0.79, i.e., it will move about 0.79 points for every 1 point market move, hence, it is less volatile than the aggregate market. The fund’s dividend return is 2.28% at 0.788 per share. The fund’s top holding is the consumer staples giant, Nestlé ( OTCPK:NSRGY ) at 16.0708% of the fund. Nestlé ‘s has 197 operations worldwide. It’s interesting to note that neither Consumer Staples nor food products account for a very large portion of Swiss exports. Coffee is largest percentage of any food export at 15th and 0.72% of total Swiss exports, then chocolate, 46th at 0.30% of Swiss exports. Nestlé’s business model utilizes a global production and distribution network. It procures, produces and distributes regionally from its factories located abroad: Europe has 136 locations, the Americas have 163 and Asia, Oceania and Africa, 143 combined. Hence, Nestlé is insulated from a strong Swiss Franc and can compete regionally. Nestlé is the only Consumer Staple in the top ten but the fund’s largest holding. Nestles ‘ ADR carries a 3.06% annualized dividend of $2.276, a P/E of 16.45, an EPS of 4.52 and a remarkably low beta of 0.521. Nestles sources ingredients responsibly, establishing minimum standards and product ‘traceability’ from 165,000 suppliers and 680,000 individual farmers. Nestles prides itself on its environmental and sustainability requirements. For example, Nestles is currently upgrading its California bottling plants to operate as a ‘zero water use facilities’. (Source: iShares) The second largest holding is Novartis (NYSE: NVS ), at 15.3964% and third, Roche Holdings ( OTCQX:RHHBY ) at 12.9567%. Again, it’s important to note some basic facts of these two premier healthcare companies. Novartis pays an annual 2.33% dividend of $2.259 per share, has a P/E of 23.38 and a low market beta of 0.77. Novartis produces Cardio Metabolic, Retina, Respiratory and Oncology therapeutics. Two familiar subsidiaries are Alcon, the eye care products company and Sandoz, the generic drug manufacturer. Roche ADRs carry a 2.83% annual dividend yield of $1.004, has a P/E of 26.38 and a market beta of 0.5. In addition to diagnostics and screening solutions, therapeutics drugs produced by Roche target Diabetes, Hepatitis, Leukemia, anti-rejection, and West Nile Virus to name a few. Lastly, as it is with Nestles, Novartis and Roche are, philanthropic, socially responsible and have strong sustainability and environmental impact policies. In total 39.5784% of the funds top 10 holdings are in Healthcare, and account for 88.91% of total Healthcare holdings. Financials comprise 20.33% of the fund’s holdings. Financials in the top ten include, UBS Group (NYSE: UBS ), 4.6014%, Zurich Insurance Group ( OTCQX:ZURVY ), 4.0688% ; Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS ), 3.7144% and Swiss Re ( OTCPK:SSREY ) 2.8509%. That works out to 21.267% of the fund’s top ten holdings and 74.941 of the fund’s total financial holdings. The funds motif carries over to the financials also. They have good dividends, low market volatility and concentrated in the top holdings. UBS is a global investment bank as well as wealth and asset managers with offices in 24 countries and all major financial centers worldwide. UBS carries a dividend yield of 2.53% at $0.53 annually, has a P/E of 16.23 with a beta of 1.02 Zurich Insurance provides retail and corporate insurance coverage across the entire spectrum of insurance products in over 170 countries. Zurich Insurance Group carries a dividend yield of 5.50% which works out to nearly $17.00 at its current $308.00 ADR price, has P/E of 11.78 with a beta of 0.399 Credit Suisse provides investment banking and asset management services for high net worth private clients in 50 countries. Credit Suisse has a dividend yield of 2.72% at $0.7464 annually, has a P/E of 22.80 and a beta of 1.08 Lastly, Swiss Re is a leading global reinsurer in 23 countries. Swiss Re has a dividend yield of 4.70% at $4.25 annually, a P/E of 37 and a market beta of 0.97. It’s important to note that according to the WTO , Switzerland’s commercial service exports, which includes financial and insurance services accounts for $93.421 billion or 2.01% of all global services exports. Industrials comprise 11.53% of the fund with only one representation in the top ten, ABB LTD (NYSE: ABB ). At 4.35% of the fund’s holdings, that accounts for 37.728% of all industrial holdings and 6.07% of the top ten holdings. ABB ‘s main focus is on electrical-mechanical equipment. This includes power transmission equipment, surge protection, motors, generators, transformers and linear controllers. ABB provides services and equipment for renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicle systems, network management and marine transport. Because of its experience and focus on energy transmission, ABB’s has extraordinary growth potential in emerging markets as well as in some advanced economies whose power transmission infrastructure is in need of upgrading. The company’s annual dividend is 2.60% at $0.59 per share, a trailing P/E of 19.38 and beta of 1.14. Syngenta (NYSE: SYT ) is a global biotechnical agricultural products and seed producer located in 90 countries. The company focuses on sustainability, their motto being, “Bringing Plant Potential to Life” . Syngenta focuses on efficient crop production with higher yields and cost savings. At 3.71%, Syngenta accounts for 42.546% of all Materials holdings and 5.179% of the top ten holdings. Once again a closer look reveals an annual dividend yield of 2.33% at $1.95, a P/E of 24.01 and a market beta of 0.71. Lastly, COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT ( OTCPK:CFRUY ) , at 3.84% of total holdings is most definitely a Consumer Discretionary company, producing unique ‘quality crafted’ luxury products with global distribution. Some of the more familiar names in the product line are Cartier, Alfred Dunhill, Chloé and Piaget . Richemont comprises 5.36% of top ten holdings and 67.605% of all consumers discretionary in the fund. Simply put, its products target the ‘high-end’ retail market, usually immune to cyclical downturns. The annual dividend yield is 1.03% at $0.847 per share, a somewhat high P/E at 34.74 and a market beta of 1.256. (Source: iShares) The fund is concentrated in its top ten holdings, containing 88.91% of all Health Care, 74.94% of all financials, 85.30% of all consumer staples, 37.728% of all industrials, 42.546% of all materials and 67.605% of all consumers discretionary. Telecommunications, 1.46% of the fund and Energy, 0.80% of the fund do not factor into the top ten holdings. A few other telling statistics of the top ten holdings is the average dividend yield of 2.963%, an average P/E 23.215 and an average beta of 0.8366. Compare this with the average S&P P/E of 21.47 and 1.99% dividend yield. (click to enlarge) (Source: iShares) One caveat: There is a slight currency risk. Switzerland traditionally keeps a strong free float currency and presently its ‘safe haven’ reputation has created demand for its currency and bonds. When a currency weakens against its trading partners, exported products become less expensive. Conversely, if the currency strengthens, exported products become more expensive. The above mentioned Swiss manufacturers had the foresight to utilize a global, material procurement, production and distribution network model, thus avoiding pricing skewed by Swiss Franc currency fluctuations. To be sure, there are other Switzerland focused funds. One of those listed in Seeking Alpha’s ETF hub is the First Trust Switzerland AlphaDEX® Fund (NYSEARCA: FSZ ) . The First Trust’s holdings are heavily weighted towards financials at 32.6% with 14.92% in the top ten. Similarly, 24.07% of the fund’s total holdings are industrials with 11.71% in the top ten. Materials and Consumer discretionary combined, comprise 19.38% of the fund with 7.31% in the top ten. In total, over 76% of total holdings are cyclically sensitive. Essentially, those companies comprising the First Trust Fund are the same companies as in the iShares Swiss focused fund, however the critical feature is the structure of the funds. The weighting of each are nearly inverses of each other. FSZ, by its structure, will have higher cyclical volatility. A second alternative is the Swiss Helvetia Fund (NYSE: SWZ ) . The fund’s website does list the top ten holdings but not the fund’s entire holdings. Judging by the top ten heaviest weighted holdings, SWZ is defensively weighted with healthcare giants Novartis and Roche topping the list followed by consumer staples manufacturer Nestles , followed by the famed Chocolatier Lindt & Spruengli ( OTC:COCXF ). The more cyclically sensitive UBS, Credit Suisse and Swatch group ( OTCPK:SWGAY ) comprise a lesser portion of the top ten holding. It should also be noted that the Helvetia Fund has recently changed its managing advisors. Switzerland has about 50 world class companies so all three funds contain the same companies, more or less. The key is in each fund’s structure. iShares Switzerland focused fund EWL is as carefully crafted as a Swiss timepiece. It weights the best of all worlds: Growth, Dividends and Low Volatility. SWISS ETF Comparison Table 1 month 3 months 1 year 5 years EWL -2.64% 3.81% -2.15% 68.75% FSZ -3.06% 3.84% -5.63% 36.21% SWZ -3.28% 5.56% -17.62% 11.56% (Source: combined) In summary, the iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF ( EWL ) is diversified through globally positioned, cyclically defensive companies and does so without sacrificing growth. All said and done the iShares Switzerland capped ETF is ideal for the investor with a long term view. Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: CFDs, spreadbetting and FX can result in losses exceeding your initial deposit. They are not suitable for everyone, so please ensure you understand the risks. Seek independent financial advice if necessary. Nothing in this article should be considered a personal recommendation. It does not account for your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.

Risk Factors Drive Lazard’s Systematic Approach To Core Investing

By DailyAlts Staff Core investments are those that anchor the portfolio. Typically, investors pursue exposure to broad-market benchmarks, such as S&P 500 or MSCI indexes for stocks, and the Barclays Aggregate Index for bonds, as part of their core holdings, with the intent of minimizing the unexpected. But rather than passively investing in index funds, Lazard (NYSE: LAZ ) thinks investors should take a systematic approach to implementing core investing strategies, and that is the subject of the firm’s latest Investment Focus white paper: Core Advantage: The Case for a Systematic Approach to Core Investing . The Non-Systematic Approach Managers pursuing non-systematic approaches to providing core exposure suffer from several pitfalls, first among which is the tendency for them to introduce unwanted risks to a portfolio in pursuit of benchmark-beating returns. This can happen from overweighting stocks according to style, market cap, or geographic region. While it might prove rewarding under certain market environments, it can result in outsized losses when trends unexpectedly reverse, and this is not what most investors are looking for from their core holdings. The image below shows how market favor has vacillated over time, shifting between growth and value stocks; large caps and small; and developed and emerging markets: The Systematic Approach The authors of Lazard’s paper believe the systematic approach is the best for core investing, because it allows managers to maintain stricter parameters relative to their benchmark, by ensuring against concentration according to market cap, sector, or country. Additionally, using a rules-based, data-driven, and systematic approach allows managers to analyze hundreds, even thousands of stocks within a given universe, in real-time using a bottom-up process; and to combine “robust risk management” with stock selection. How does it work? Well, according to Lazard, various risk factors have been rewarded by markets over time, including valuation, sentiment, and quality, as depicted in the image below: Valuation compares a company’s price to its peers and its own historical record, and favors companies that are inexpensive and offer long-term value. It’s a contrarian approach, and investors need to be prepared to endure short-term, unrealized losses. Sentiment is gauged by looking at the stock’s price strength, relative to the other stocks in its sector and broader benchmark, as well as analyst upgrades. In Lazard’s approach, liquidity is also taken into account by looking at volume-weighted momentum, and companies with strengthening momentum are favored while those with weakening momentum are disfavored. Quality is assessed by stability of returns and low earnings-volatility. According to Lazard, quality stocks are often those in the process of “migrating” from the realm of growth stocks to that of value. Systematic Evolution Systematic investing avoids concentrating investments in any one area and seeks to maintain a composition similar to that of its benchmark. This requires what Lazard calls an “evolving approach,” wherein investment professionals are constantly researching and testing potential improvements to the investment process. Lazard’s own approach, as implemented by the Lazard Equity Advantage team, is “uniquely positioned to help clients achieve their investment goals,” according to Lazard. “This has proved to be a solid foundation on which to build equity asset class exposure – especially through core approaches – and long-term investment program success.” For more information, download a pdf copy of the white paper .