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ETF Strategies To Gain From In The Rest Of 2016

After a lackluster patch, the broader market showed some strength in Q2, but occasional volatility is still showing up. The S&P 500 is striving to stay in the green from the year-to-date look (as of May 18, 2016) (read: S&P 500 Again Shows Weakness: Go Short with These ETFs ). Several marked changes were noticed during this time, including the solid comeback in oil prices and subtle stabilization in the Chinese economy. But it seems that the S&P 500 is far from seeing its past success in the rest of this year. Though the U.S. economy started taking root lately and is expected to see upbeat growth in Q2, volatility will likely rule the market. Imminent ‘Brexit’ vote, further Fed rate hikes and the U.S. election in November will definitely not let the market stay calm (read: British ETFs in Focus on Brexit Talks ). Investors should note that though the Fed hike symbolizes a steady U.S. economy, the imminent reaction is a crash in the stock market in fear of a dearth in cheap money inflows. Against this backdrop, investors may want to know some worthwhile investing strategies. For them we highlight the trending policies in the market and some profitable ETF bets. Analysts Muted on Stocks Bank of America believes that the S&P 500 could slip to its February lows, while Morgan Stanley has applied the famous maxim “Sell in May and go away” to stocks at least till November. Goldman Sachs has also cut its outlook on equities to “neutral” over the coming one year. Now Goldman has gone “neutral” on U.S. (upgraded), Europe (downgraded), Japan (downgraded) and Asia ex-Japan equities. Europe and Japan definitely bear the burden of stronger currencies and weaker financial sectors due to the ongoing negative interest rates. On the other hand, U.S. equities may suffer from choppy earnings, overvaluation concerns and the Fed move. The ripple effects of any crash in the S&P 500 may shake stocks worldwide. So, it’s better to bet on the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SH ) , the ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: EUM ) , or the ProShares Short MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEARCA: EFZ ) . Time for Money Market Instruments? As per Goldman, cash can be an overweight pick this year due to fewer chances of a Fed rate hike. In such a situation, investors can bet on cash-like money market ETFs like the Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: GSY ) and the SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSEARCA: BIL ) . One thing is for sure, a rate hike will hit both stocks and bonds. This is because as the Fed enacts, yields will jump pushing bond prices down. Even Goldman is worrying about the interest rate shock. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: Safety + Yield Investors can also consider long-term corporate bond ETFs like the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF (NASDAQ: VCLT ) for higher yields than treasuries. Goldman Sachs now expects its year-end 10-year yield to be 2.4%, down from the 2.75% it had projected in the first quarter. Bank of America Merrill Lynch pared down its forecast for the yearend 10-year yield to 2% from 2.65% at the start of the year. Morgan Stanley projects a lower 10-year yield at 1.75%, down from 2.7% when the year had started. So, the drive for higher yield is expected in the marketplace. However, since corporate bonds are riskier in nature, honing in on investment-grade ones is a prerequisite. After all, corporate leverage is peaking, so investors need to be aware of default risks. VCLT yields 4.30% annually (as of May 18, 2016). Play Rebound in Oil; but Tread Cautiously Oil prices have seen a lot in last two years. Now that things are turning in favor for oil with shrinking supply glut and a possible recovery in demand, a play on oil is warranted. With oil, investors can also bet on high-yield bond ETFs like the AdvisorShares Peritus High Yield ETF (NYSEARCA: HYLD ) . This is because of the fact that the U.S. energy companies are closely tied to the high-yield bond market, with the former comprising a considerable amount of junk bond issuance. Volatility to Crack the Whip: Play Risk Aware Volatility is expected to be strong in 2016. Investors can deal with this in various ways. While low volatility ETFs like the PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: SPLV ) can be an option, defensive ETFs like the QuantShares U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta ETF (NYSEARCA: BTAL ) and risk-aware ETFs like the SPDR SSgA Risk Aware ETF (NYSEARCA: RORO ) can be tapped too. And last but not the least in queue are volatility ETFs themselves such as the C-Tracks on Citi Volatility Index ETN (NYSEARCA: CVOL ) and the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (NYSEARCA: VIXY ) . Notably, as the name suggests, volatility products are quite rowdy in nature and thus suit investors with a short-term notion. Gold to Hit $1,400? Steep Fed tightening or not, the gold market looks shiny thanks to global political risks this year. Along with many other optimistic analysts, Denmark’s Saxo Bank A/S turned bullish on gold and projected that the price may hit as high as $1,400 this year. This invariably puts gold ETFs like the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ) in focus. Link to the original post on Zacks.com

How To Invest In A Flat Stock Market

Tim Maverick, Senior Correspondent As The Wall Street Journal recently pointed out, both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Industrial Average have not hit a new high in over a year. In fact, the stock market averages are little changed from the levels of late 2014 – not a shock, considering U.S. companies have been in an earnings recession for almost the same length of time. Investors are beginning to lose their patience with this stagnant stock market. Through the week of May 11, 2016, they’ve pulled $67.7 billion from U.S. equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2016, alone. For a market observer, like myself, this stuck-in-the-mud market status doesn’t come as a surprise. Just look at the history behind these dangerous stagnant periods. Muddy Market History According to the Bespoke Investment Group, this will mark the 21st time, since 1930, that the market has gone a year without making a new high. This is one of those dirty little secrets kept under lock and key by brokers and CNBC, alike. The stock market, on occasion, has gone through long periods without making any headway: Thanks to the Great Depression, the market levels of 1929 were not seen again until 1954. The 1970s were no picnic, either, thanks to the oil shock and rampant inflation. In January 1966, the Dow hit the 990 mark, a level that it did not re-visit until 1982. More recently, the Nasdaq hit a closing record of 5048.62 on March 10, 2000. It took another 15 years, in April 2015, for the market to surpass those numbers. While I don’t expect a long-term drought like these earlier periods for the current stock market, history proves that, in times like these, the S&P 500 Index funds are not a reliable path along which to set your hard-earned money. Can you afford to have your money just lying around for a decade or more, only to come up earning nothing? The only reason these funds’ recent history looks remotely positive is due to the flood of central bank liquidity since the financial crisis has floated big-cap boats. Even a casual examination of global markets shows that the central bank actions are losing their punch. And, despite all the liquidity, big cap stocks have been merely treading water since late 2014. Staying Afloat So what can investors do? It’s crucial to find the right investments – as shelter from the storm of earnings recession and rich valuations well above the 10-year average – that still offer some upside and keep your money working. The best place for earnings continues to be the bond market. An undeniable fact is: Thanks to zany central bank policies, there are, globally, nearly $10 trillion in government bonds that trade with a negative yield. That fact will – despite whatever the Fed may or may not do – keep a firm bid under U.S. Treasuries. With my forecast of a 1% yield on 10-year Treasuries within a year, the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) looks very appealing. Further, with the European Central Bank starting its corporate bond buying binge later this month, the Powershares International Corporate Bond Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PICB ) also looks like a winner. This ETF has more than a 50% exposure to European corporate bonds. It’s also important to note that periods of poor stock market returns tend to coincide with strong performances in gold and silver. As pointed out by my Wall Street Daily colleague, Jonathan Rodriguez: gold seems to have broken out on a technical basis. I would play gold through the VanEck Merk Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: OUNZ ), which allows investors to actually convert their holdings into physical gold, if they wish. Thus, this investment can become tangible and, therefore, even more reliable. However, the best way to play stocks, currently, is to stick with the dividend payers. One ETF to grab dividends globally is the WisdomTree Global Equity Income ETF (NYSEARCA: DEW ), which is up about 3% this year in addition to paying quarterly dividends. U.S. stocks make up roughly 55% of the portfolio, led by well-known names like General Electric Company (NYSE: GE ), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM ) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ). The returns from the funds I’ve mentioned project steady gains and I believe they will easily outpace stagnant S&P 500 funds.

Apple, Tesla Self-Driving Cars May Kill Off Consumer Auto Insurance

If Apple ( AAPL ), Tesla Motors ( TSLA ), Alphabet ‘s ( GOOGL ) Google and others succeed in making self-driving cars prevalent by 2040 and ride-hailing startups Uber and Lyft prosper, auto insurance may no longer be needed by many U.S. consumers, says S&P Global Market Intelligence. S&P released five reports this week analyzing the push into self-driving electric cars by Google, Tesla, China’s Baidu ( BIDU ) and others. While the business models of traditional automakers such as General Motors ( GM ) and Ford ( F ) will undergo big changes, the impact of self-driving cars on the $137 billion auto insurance industry and companies like Allstate ( ALL ) could be monumental, says S&P. “The advent of a totally driverless car threatens the core auto insurance liability business model,” said one S&P report. “A shift to driverless cars would theoretically shift the legal liability away from the driver, since the incidence of crashes would likely be reduced, and the liability in a crash would shift from human error to product liability, potentially reducing or removing the need for auto liability insurance.” Here are five other takeaways from S&P’s deep dive into self-driving cars and ride-sharing alliances.  Noting Apple’s $1 billion investment in China’s ride-hailing leader Didi Chuxing, which has an alliance with Lyft, S&P said ride-hailing apps may eventually summon autonomous cars. Uber, the leader in ride-sharing, is losing money, says S&P. Both Uber and Lyft face “competitive markets and issues related to how to classify their drivers and operate within federal laws and local rules.” While Apple has not officially announced plans, it seems to be gearing up in automotive technology. “Multiple hires made since the beginning of last year, including former Tesla employees, indicate an interest,” S&P said. “We also note substantial increases in R&D and capex over the past few years.” General Motors, which in early 2016 invested $500 million in Lyft, intends to integrate autonomous driving technology from Cruise Automation once it completes its planned $1 billion purchase of that company. Lyft drivers are a potential customer base for GM’s upcoming Bolt electric vehicle, says S&P. Radio service providers such as iHeart Communications, formerly Clear Channel, will likely face intensifying rivalries versus Sirius XM Radio ( SIRI ) and  Pandora Media ( P ), as well as Apple CarPlay and Google’s Android Auto. RELATED: Apple Gets Lift From China Ride-Hailing Service Investment Toyota Joins Apple, GM In Finding Ride-Hailing Partners Meet Uber’s Self-Driving Car, As Autonomous Race Heats Up .