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Tesla Faces Model 3 ‘Execution Risk’; Stock Meets Resistance

The complexity and steepness of the Model 3 production ramp planned by Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) is likely to bring big challenges and increased risks, says one analyst who lowered his expectations for the electric car maker. “We are tempering our delivery forecast to account for a slower Model 3 ramp,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, who lowered his price target on Tesla to 242 from 252. Tesla shares rose 0.8% to 219.58 on the stock market today . But shares met resistance at the 200-day moving average. In February, Tesla hit a nearly two-year low of about 141. Tesla said it plans to deliver 500,000 Model 3 sedans by 2018 and deliver 1 million by 2020. “We are all for setting aggressive internal and supplier goals, but as an investor, we believe these targets should be moderated,” Spak wrote. “We were always below Tesla’s vehicle delivery targets of 500,000 by 2018 and 1 million by 2020, but after speaking with industry contacts and reconsidering our model, we are tempering our delivery forecast to account for a slower Model 3 ramp,” he said. The ramp and scale of Tesla’s Model 3 is significantly larger than those for previous models. The starting price for the all-electric Model 3 is $35,000. “In the interim, the Tesla story is about manufacturing, and execution risk is elevated,” Spak wrote. “For the investor with long-term horizons, the ramp is less of a concern. For others, expect a choppy ride with sentiment a large driving factor.” To help accelerate the production ramp, Tesla raised $1.4 billion in capital in a secondary offering, adding to the $1.44 billion in cash and equivalents on the balance sheet as of March 31. Spak forecast a Tesla cash burn of about $1.8 billion this year and $1.3 billion in 2017. By 2018, he estimates, Tesla will have used up its cash supply, suggesting additional capital raises are likely needed. “For now we put another $1 billion equity raise in 2017,” Spak wrote.

Tesla Model 3 ‘Execution Risk’ Leads To Stock Price Downgrade

The complexity and steepness of the Model 3 production ramp planned by Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) is likely to bring big challenges and increased risks, says one analyst who lowered his expectations for the electric car maker. “We are tempering our delivery forecast to account for a slower Model 3 ramp,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, who lowered his price target on Tesla to 242 from 252. Tesla shares were up 1%, near 221, in afternoon trading on the stock market today . In February, Tesla hit a nearly two-year low of about 141. Tesla said it plans to deliver 500,000 Model 3 sedans by 2018 and deliver 1 million by 2020. “We are all for setting aggressive internal and supplier goals, but as an investor, we believe these targets should be moderated,” Spak wrote. “We were always below Tesla’s vehicle delivery targets of 500,000 by 2018 and 1 million by 2020, but after speaking with industry contacts and reconsidering our model, we are tempering our delivery forecast to account for a slower Model 3 ramp,” he said. The ramp and scale of Tesla’s Model 3 is significantly larger than those for previous models. The starting price for the all-electric Model 3 is $35,000. “In the interim, the Tesla story is about manufacturing, and execution risk is elevated,” Spak wrote. “For the investor with long-term horizons, the ramp is less of a concern. For others, expect a choppy ride with sentiment a large driving factor.” To help accelerate the production ramp, Tesla raised $1.4 billion in capital in a secondary offering, adding to the $1.44 billion in cash and equivalents on the balance sheet as of March 31. Spak forecast a Tesla cash burn of about $1.8 billion this year and $1.3 billion in 2017. By 2018, he estimates, Tesla will have used up its cash supply, suggesting additional capital raises are likely needed. “For now we put another $1 billion equity raise in 2017,” Spak wrote.

Tesla Price Target Cut On Model 3; Monsanto Hiked; Best Buy Not A Buy

RBC Capital lowered its price target on Tesla ( TSLA ), Jefferies upped its price target on Monsanto ( MON ) on views that Germany’s Bayer will sweeten its $62 billion takeover offer, and  Best Buy ( BBY ) was downgraded by Citigroup and Deutsche Bank. Tesla RBC Capital trimmed its price target on Tesla to 242 from 252. The electric automaker last week announced a $2 billion stock offering that will be used to fund a production ramp-up for the Model 3. RBC Capital forecast a fresh $1 billion equity raise in 2017 and lowered its estimate for Model 3 shipments. “We were always below Tesla’s vehicle delivery targets of 500,000 by 2018 and 1 million by 2020, but after speaking with industry contacts and reconsidering our model, we are tempering our delivery forecast to account for a slower Model 3 ramp,” said the RBC Capital report. Tesla shares rose 0.9% to 219.90 in early afternoon action on the stock market today . Monsanto Jefferies upped its price target on Monsanto to 132. “We believe a higher-than-$130-per-share transaction is highly likely, with details emerging by August,” Jefferies said in the report. Monsanto on Tuesday rejected a $122-per-share cash offer from  Bayer ( BAYRY ), but signaled it might be open to a higher price. Late Tuesday, Bayer issued a statement sounding hopeful that a deal could be reached. “To date, activist pressure has been limited. If a deal falters, we would expect (a) step-up in pressure for Monsanto to do more with its balance sheet,” said Jefferies. Monsanto stock rallied 2.5% intraday. Bayer fell fractionally. Best Buy Best Buy, which on Tuesday forecast current-quarter profit below views and said its CFO was leaving, was downgraded to neutral by Citigroup and Deutsche Bank. Citigroup cited a lack of hot new consumer electronics products. Virtual reality will not take off until 2017, said Citigroup. “Categories with no secular threats — home improvement and auto parts — are performing better and are more predictable,” Citigroup said. Best Buy shares rebounded 3.6% after tumbling 7.4% on Tuesday. Fleetmatics Pacific Crest Securities upgraded Fleetmatics ( FLTX ) to overweight with a price target of 54. Shares in the mobile fleet management software provider are down 20% in 2016 after surging 43% last year. “With plenty of solid runway for growth, rising (customer turnover) now better understood, a positively received management transition and a conservative earnings outlook for the year, we turn more positive on FLTX,” said the Pacific Crest report. Fleetmatics stock rose 2.4% intraday. In other analyst moves, Needham upgraded Workday ( WDAY ) to buy and raised its price target to 85 from 80. Workday rose 1% to 77.69 intraday.