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Loading the player… Going into Wednesday trading, Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) stock sat at its highest since September, ahead of a first-week Model 3 reservations update expected from CEO Elon Musk later in the day. He said Saturday that the $1,000 refundable preorder deposits for the $35,000 car reached 276,000 — far above analysts’ expectations and Tesla’s own. Will give an update tonight for the 3 day total, then last one on Wed for the full week. All efforts focused on accelerating the ramp. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 2, 2016 Tesla Motors Stock Analysis Tesla stock rose more than 3% in each of the three trading days following Thursday’s unveiling of the electric Model 3, a mass-market vehicle expected to compete with gas-powered cars like BMW’s 3 Series and similarly priced ones from Volkswagen ’s ( VLKAY ) Audi, Daimler ’s ( DDAIF ) Mercedes-Benz and Toyota ’s ( TM ) Lexus, as well as electrics like General Motors ‘ ( GM ) Chevrolet Bolt. The stock is building the right side of a very long, deep base. But Tesla currently only gets a 51 Composite Rating out of a possible 99 from IBD. The CR factors in its earnings and loss history, stock moves and more. Can Tesla Build Model 3 After Model X Miss? This week, Tesla missed its Q1 car unit sales expectations. So, can Tesla build all those Model 3s in light of its difficulty getting out just shy of 15,000 cars last quarter? The company said Monday that “severe Model X supplier parts shortages” of just a few parts were due partly to its own “hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1.” So many preorders of the $35,000 Model 3 so soon can create a big production backlog. The Model 3 is due out starting in late 2017. CEO Musk says he’s rethinking production planning. Tesla Analysts Forecast Production Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brad Erickson predicts Tesla “can deliver 370,000 vehicles” in 2020, Stifel’s James Albertine sees 200,000, and Tesla has predicted half a million. On how many Model 3 reservations will turn into sales, Erickson sees “huge optimism, but modest lack of conviction of actual purchase,” given that the deposits are fully refundable and only $1,000 each. Erickson is keeping his Tesla stock rating at sector weight. He says, “we need more comfort with the upside scenarios … before becoming more constructive on the stock.” Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are on average only mildly positive on Tesla stock, with a lot of future expectations already built into the price. Of 21 analysts polled, nine call Tesla a buy or strong buy, five a hold, and seven an underperform. Related : Tesla Stock Shrugs Off Parts Shortage; Model 3 Reservations Pass 276,000 This Is What It’s Like To Ride In A Tesla Model 3 Scalper1 News
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