I altered my outlook for gold on Christmas Day, moving from a short view held from September 5 to a long view at what turned out to be perfect inflection. Since marking highs in January, gold and the GLD have again given way. The catalyst working against gold has been a strengthening relative dollar value, I believe greatly on concerns about the euro and Greece’s disruption to it. I see the Greece issue being resolved favorably near-term, and I believe the relative weakness that will follow for the dollar will again lift gold and the GLD. While some risks exist against my view, I see most of those either balanced or priced into the value of gold and the GLD at current levels. On Christmas Day 2014, I ended my short opinion on gold and gold relative securities with the publication of this report, Gold Outlook for 2015 – Buy & Hold Here . I also suggested the best way to play a reversal in gold was through the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX ). But I never got on the record with my SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD ) followers, some of whom may not be aware of my positive turn. At this point, after a pull-back from a high price point of above $125 in January, and currently trading at roughly $115, I see current value marking a near-term bottom in the SPDR Gold Trust , and can suggest purchase of the gold security again. I believe gold prices should stabilize and rise from here, as the value of the dollar gives way against major foreign currencies. Though I see some risk that capital could flow heavily into U.S. equities, and potentially draw from gold investments over the short-term, I see gold and the GLD security good to go long-term. Even as the Fed raises interest rates this year, I still anticipate the dollar will give way and allow gold to go higher long-term, as Fed transparency has greatly priced this fact into the dollar already. 3-Month GLD Chart at Seeking Alpha The chart here shows the early year run up of gold from lows marked at the end of 2014, before giving way again more recently this year. I ended my negative outlook for gold initiated on September 5, 2014, and turned to a positive perspective for the commodity on Christmas Day. I just about perfectly captured the inflection point you see in the chart above in doing so, similar to how I did at the start of 2014 and in September of 2014. But since marking highs in January, gold and the SPDR Gold Trust have backed off a bit. This report marks my first published article on gold and relative securities since my early calls to buy and serves as an important reassurance to metals investors about my long-term view from this level. Today, trading near $115, the SPDR Gold Trust suffers from the recent strength of the dollar gained on the euro and yen. Against the yen, a recession in Japan and extraordinary central bank steps in that nation allowed the dollar some room to grow. Against the euro, the economic deceleration of Europe and the extraordinary actions of the European Central Bank (ECB) did the same. But the question raised about Europe more recently, due to the disruptive elections in Greece and its new government’s push for alterations to its bailout agreement, have given an extra lift to the dollar this year. Fear of a Greece exit from the eurozone has been overblown, in my opinion, and has been the thesis for a slew of investment recommendations I’ve made recently for and against other securities. For instance, I see the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (NYSE: UUP ) dropping to $24 soon. That move would come on relative dollar weakness, which would also lift gold up again. Relative Securities YTD TTM SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY ) +2.2% +16.3% PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish +3.2% +16.0% SPDR Gold Trust +1.6% -9.1% iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV ) +3.9% -25.2% Market Vectors Gold Miners +8.4% -22.5% As it pertains to the SPDR Gold Trust and gold prices, I believe that when the Greece question is answered favorably, possibly as early as today (Friday February 20th) and surely by February 28th, the dollar will start to give way to the euro. The dollar has already shown signs of wanting to do so and U.S. interest rates have likewise risen from recent lows. However, the saga has continued and the catalyst for a move is still chained, with pent-up energy waiting for a true and definite resolution. The dollar has had other reasons to give way recently. Japan just reported that it has formally exited recession, though the Bank of Japan remains likely to stick to its extraordinary easing strategy near-term. Europe is seeing signs of economic improvement as well, and many of its markets have already enjoyed a rally, with only Greece and Spain lagging due to political uproar. The recent peace accord in Ukraine offers hope that some geopolitical stability may be in the offing. All these developments support my thesis along with the catalyst I see in a Greece resolution. Risks exist against my thesis as well. The U.S. Federal Reserve remains on a path toward raising interest rates, but I believe much if not all of this probability is priced into the dollar and thus gold prices. The Fed has so well telegraphed its moves, thanks to its efforts toward transparency, that few will be surprised when the Fed finally does start to raise rates. And let me remind the reader that interest rates are at historic lows and abnormally low considering the strength of the U.S. economy. At this point, some argue, it is irresponsible not to raise interest rates and that the Fed flirts with future risk of inflation. Secondarily, terrorism in Europe has become a reality and could drive another flight to quality to the U.S. dollar, and thus is a threat against this thesis. However, one might argue that the same risk is likely intensified now for the United States, which is stepping up its own efforts against the Islamic State. Finally, if a Greece resolution occurs, it should also drive a rally in U.S. equities in my opinion. There is risk that gold could serve as a source of capital to fund it. I would argue that U.S. treasuries and other near cash assets are more likely to serve that purpose, especially given gold’s benefit from a weaker dollar. As a result, I see the risks here priced in and/or balanced. I feel comfortable recommending the SPDR Gold Trust at this value, after showing signs of stabilization here at an important technical support which likewise exists for gold here. The world is not a united utopia today, and humans will continue to reach for gold as a default currency against the risk of imperfectly government backed and risky fiat currencies. Gold has increased in use as a reserve currency, increasingly replacing the dollar in many central bank stores, offering indication of what I suggest. The dollar has become overextended in my opinion, due to the Greek scare and the previous weakness of Europe and Japan. However, those factors are now giving way, and the dollar should as well, allowing gold and the SPDR Gold Trust to gain. I follow gold closely and so investors in the sector may find value in following my column . Disclosure: The author is short UUP. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.