Tag Archives: undefined

Rate-Sensitive, Energy-Sensitive Sectors Now Down 10%-Plus

Flashy sub-segments like cyber-security and biotech continue to soar. Yet the belief that U.S. equities can stampede ahead indefinitely is sheer lunacy. Several rate-sensitive areas have already entered 10%-plus correction territory. Bullish borrowers have increased their margin debt to invest in stocks from $445 billion in January to $507 billion today. And why not? The overall price movement for growth sectors of the stock market remains healthy. Flashy sub-segments like cyber-security and biotech continue to soar. For example, I allocated a small portion of moderately aggressive client assets to the PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (NYSEARCA: HACK ) in early February. Its series of higher lows since its inception lent credibility to the notion of adding dollars to the high growth, high reward area. Yet the belief that U.S. equities can stampede ahead indefinitely is sheer lunacy. Consider the reality that exports have been tumbling, labor productivity has been stalling and inventories (supply) have been rising significantly faster than sales demand. No matter how the media spin it, the economy is hurting. Now factor the economic headwinds into current and/or future corporate profits and revenue. What do you get? You come up with some of the highest price-to-sales (P/S), price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios in the history of stock market valuation. Who cares, right? “Follow The Fed” advocates argue that global central banks have orchestrated exceptionally easy terms for borrowing, making bonds unattractive and stocks the only place to stash money. They maintain that modest rate increases amount to little more than moving from ultra-accommodating policy to extremely accommodating policy. Still, amateur historians might wish to recount that rate hikes in questionable economic environments (e.g., 1929, 1948, 1980) were met with recessions and stock market bears. Others might want to address the historical truth that the epic collapses of the previous decade (i.e., 2000-2002, 2007-2009) occurred alongside a Fed that had been cutting rates aggressively. Might I be more inclined to yield to a “don’t fight the Fed” reasoning if the 10-year were pushing 1%? I imagine I would be buying the harsh pullback that likely occurred along the way. If the 10-year were hugging 2%? I might expect stocks to hold serve. In contrast, the higher the 10-year climbs due to fears of an imminent tightening campaign, the more likely rate-sensitive stock assets will drag the broader market downward. Remember, the S&P 500 has not witnessed a 10% correction in roughly four years. On the other hand, several rate-sensitive areas have already entered 10%-plus correction territory. Real estate investment trusts in the Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSEARCA: VNQ ) are off -11.4%, while utilities in the SPDR S&P Sector Select Utilities have dropped -13.2%. The hardship in the energy arena has been equally challenging. Broad-based energy corporations in the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE ) may be well off their March lows, but the influential sector fund is still down a bearish -21% from a 2014 pinnacle. Similarly, the JPMorgan Alerian MLP Index ETN (NYSEARCA: AMJ ) – hit by the double whammy of rising yields and price depreciation in crude/natural gas – currently resides in a bear cave with a -21.5% decline. Even the transporters in the iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSEARCA: IYT ) has witnessed intra-day depreciation of -11.5%; the current price of IYT is also below a long-term 200-day moving average. For the record, I believe the bond rout is closer to running its course than marching forward. There is not much technical support for my belief, other than oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) indications. Support for the 10-year Treasury in and around 2.5% may even be a decent entry point for government bond investors. Consider the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IEF ). The U.S. 10-year is trading 10 basis points lower at 2.4% on Thursday. If you had a choice between owning Spain’s 10-year sovereign debt at 2.1%, Germany’s 10-year bund at 0.9%, or the U.S. 10-year at 2.4%, which would you choose? (Note: I recognize that many would choose “None of the Above.” Nevertheless, foreign investors, pension funds and central banks all require government debt; the supply is limited. The dramatic taper tantrum in bonds that occurred in 2013 reversed itself in 2014. Similarly, the bond rout to this point in 2015 is likely to see a sharp reversal in the 2nd half of 2015 or in early 2016.) On the whole, depending on the client, cash levels have been raised to 10%-25%. I have lowered stock and fixed income exposure due to the execution of stop-limit loss orders as well as the elevated correlations across asset classes; the elevated correlations make it particularly difficult to protect portfolios with traditional diversification. In contrast, a tactical asset allocation decision to raise cash makes it possible to acquire shares of stock or bond ETFs at lower prices in the future. Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.

The Worst Performing Funds Of Q1 2015

Gana LLP has recently reviewed the worst performing Mutual Funds of 2014. The question is whether these funds will continue to perform badly and if there are systemic issues with these funds or whether the performance is merely an aberration. Regularly the best way to achieve great returns is not by picking the best securities but by avoiding the bad securities. Warren Buffett once said: “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.” In doing our analysis on the worst performing funds we will look at three categories: Bond Funds, Equity Funds and Alternative Funds. Worst Mutual Funds of Q1 (Bonds): Pioneer Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt Fund (MUTF: LCEMX ) Year-to-date Performance: -5.6% The worst performing bond fund category for the first quarter in 2015 was emerging-market debt fund, the Pioneer Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt Fund . Many suggest that the strong U.S. dollar and the weak economies in emerging markets created downside pressure on this fund that invests at least 80% of its net assets in debt securities in emerging markets. While the yield for LCEMX is 5.56%, the price risk in current economic conditions makes investing in this funds risky in the short term. Other funds in this space also had problems like the Loomis Sayles International Bond Fund (MUTF: LSIAX ), which had a Q1 return of -4.4%. Worst Mutual Funds of Q1 (Equity): U.S. Global Investors Global Resources Fund (MUTF: PSPFX ) Year-to-date Performance: -12.4% The increased value of the United States dollar, coupled with a tenuous world economy and increasing oil supplies have place pressure on funds like the U.S. Global Investors Global Resources Fund . PSPFX was the worst performing natural resources fund in the Q1 2015. PSPFX had a worse quarter than the average commodities funds that invest heavily in oil. It is also worth nothing that it has been a bad quarter for utilities based funds. The broad sector index, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLU ), ranks below 80% of its category peers for the first quarter falling nearly 7%. Worst Mutual Funds of Q1 (Alternative): KKM Armor Fund (MUTF: RMRAX ) Year-to-date Performance: -30% KKM Armor Fund is worst-performing mutual fund of the first quarter of 2015. The first quarter of 2015 was not volitile and betting on volatility funds turned out to be a bad idea. RMRAX is a long volatility fund that seeks to correlate to the CBOE Volatility Index, known as VIX – a fund that many advisers recommend holding for a short period. Other alternative mutual funds losing big in the first quarter were those that bet against areas of market strength, such as the U.S. dollar. For example, the Rydex Weakening Dollar 2x Strategy Fund (MUTF: RYWDX ), which seeks to match double the inverse of the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index – so as the United States dollar increased in value, RYWDX lost.

Seeking Alpha On Day 1

Summary How should a new investor begin? How can you get the fullest use out of Seeking Alpha? What have I learned in over 900 days of writing for Seeking Alpha? Seeking Alpha – Completely Unofficial User’s Guide* *See comment section for someone asking if this is an official user’s guide. Welcome to Seeking Alpha. If this is your day one using this site, here is an unofficial welcome along with my thoughts and encouragement as someone who has written on it over the course of the past few years (day 1,000 coming up shortly). You can use it as a guide with the caveat that it is simply what worked for me. My one overriding message is to think for yourself. That message holds true here as well as elsewhere on the site. Approaching The Start Line Seeking Alpha is largely about the topic of security selection. This is an interesting, important, and often fun topic. However, it is not the most important topic and does not come first. To be ready for day one investing and to get the fullest use out of the ideas on security selection, there are eight steps that are crucial to have taken. They include: paying off any bad debt, setting a careful and frugal budget, setting up any tax-advantaged accounts that you can access, funding an emergency fund, funding a down payment for a home, setting up a brokerage for taxable investments, funding your healthcare, and simplifying each aspect of your financial life. If these are not first taken care of, the topic of individual security selection is premature. Once you have taken those steps, then you are ready to approach the starting line. Protecting You From… You It is good to learn from your mistakes, but far better to learn from others. So, while you are new, it is probably best to be thoughtful about how much you are willing to expose your financial life to the ideas – even the best ideas – that you read about on Seeking Alpha and other similar sites. Some articles are designated as “Top Articles” and others as “Editors’ Picks,” but you can never safely outsource thinking for yourself or managing your own risk. How much should you risk on your favorite ideas? This is a question that you should ask yourself before you get enthused by something you read here or on similar sites. In particular, you can protect your financial life from amateur (or professional) errors by diluting the amount of resources that you give yourself access to. I fully (maybe even over-) fund the following, diverting a substantial amount of resources away from what I put to work on Seeking Alpha ideas: life insurance, cash, pre-purchasing appreciating assets that I eventually want, education for my kids, and additional capital for my kids’ investments and entrepreneurship. After those five priorities are funded, I am left with a substantially reduced amount of capital for my own ideas. This reduction protects me from me. Besides taking money off of the table to reduce my downside to an acceptable outcome, it also reduces the daily stress to have less at risk. I don’t mind if I risk turning my 21st century life into a pleasant 19th century life, but I want zero chance of turning it into a 14th century life. After the above steps, I have far less ability to hurt myself and those I most love. I have protected my downside and can go to work on my upside. Navigating The Site Profile Page Now that you are ready to start, where do you begin? On day one, I started by setting up my profile . Once you do, too, then you become a part of the Seeking Alpha community. If you are new to investing, you can begin the process of identifying what kind of investor you are. Like-minded investors can follow what you write and you can follow them in turn. Home Page The home page offers a lot of information; sometimes it can almost be too much. Except for top articles , articles are mostly organized chronologically, so they come and go quickly. Early on, I would simply read articles based on titles that interested me. Later, I was able to make judgments about who I considered some of the best writers , who I then followed and read their subsequent articles. Instablog Instablogs are less formal, sometimes fun sites that individuals set up to discuss their ideas. I use them for ideas that are not perfect fits for articles, but are still interesting to me and might be interesting to others. Since articles are organized around specific companies, Instablogs can be useful for more generalized content and content outside of the public equity markets. Premium Authors A recent addition to the site in the last few months has been its premium author program. That is where you can subscribe to what Seeking Alpha describes as: Value-added investment services from top SA contributors It is not necessary and it is not for everyone. However, you may choose to check it out. If it is not a good fit, you can subsequently cancel it and get a refund on the balance of your subscription. Incorporating Seeking Alpha Into Your Investing Strategy I am probably as enthusiastic about Seeking Alpha as anyone, but even for me, it is only a small part of my investing strategy. Even Seeking Alpha’s founder blogs on a separate site . How does it fit into other online resources and an overall financial plan? Vetting authors – how do Seeking Alpha stock picks measure up? Who can you rely on? This is a question that I have often asked myself . I have five criteria, including: money – someone who has made some, flexibility – writers without a narrow mandate, introspection – ignorance is fine if it is not covered up, proximity – a writer close to his subject in the real world, and performance – this is the big one. In terms of number 5., where do you find performance data? While it is only a crude instrument, I have found TipRanks to be a useful supplement to Seeking Alpha. Past performance is the best predictor of success. – James Simons Executing Ideas Once you find an idea that you like, you will need a way to put it to work. So, in addition to Seeking Alpha, you will need a broker that you like and trust. My primary criterion is price with a secondary consideration for the strength of its online trading platform. It is a fairly commoditized business. Different investors have different preferences. Something to consider: if you have a significant retirement account at Vanguard, it comes with a large number of free trades. With a $1 million balance, you get 25 free trades. With a $10 million balance, you get 500 free trades. I also like Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW ), in part because it is able to take delivery of paper certificates, which I often use. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) has the best service, in my experience, but it is looking for clients that generate a substantial amount of annual trading commissions. Leucadia’s (NYSE: LUK ) brokerage, Jefferies is a fine compromise for smaller accounts than are of interest to GS. Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR ) is great on price, great on its trading platform, and almost comically inept at customer service. Picture trading with a brokerage that learned efficiency and charm from the DMV. Goal A common goal is to beat the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY ) over a three- to five-year time horizon. SPY serves as a convenient standard – if you are not going to be able to beat it or do not want to try, you can always buy it instead. What is SPY and how hard has it been to beat it? Here are SPY’s major pluses, minuses, and attributes that an active investor needs to beat. “+” 1.) Performance In terms of performance, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has returned over 600% since inception. In terms of dividend growth investing, SPY has had a growing dividend over that period. In percentage terms, the SPY yield is currently under 2%. Over the long term, SPY has beat most asset classes and trounced the average investor returns. “+” 2.) Cost The net expense ratio for SPY is an extremely low 0.0945%. The extremely high liquidity in SPY shares means that you pay a tiny bid/ask spread when buying and selling. “+” 3.) Diversification SPY is diversified across hundreds of shares, so permanent impairment of capital is unlikely over the very long term. It is certain that at least one SPY component company will go bankrupt. It is unlikely that all five hundred will. In that unlikely event, you will probably have greater concerns than the return on your investment portfolio. “-” 1.) Hyperactivity How is it possible that SPY could have a multiple of the average investor returns, as shown in the above chart? Almost any passive exposure outperforms the average investor. Part of the answer is hyperactivity. SPY trades over 16 million shares per day. Which side of these trades has edgy information about the market’s direction? Most frequently, neither side does. But average investors attempting market timing frequently buy and sell at the worst possible times. Market timing efforts typically buy when markets appear certain and sell when markets appear to be uncertain. In doing so, they tend to pay a high price for the comfort of greater certainty. “-” 2.) Reconstitution There is a pronounced S&P 500 inclusion effect. Average SPY constituents cost about 9% more than non-constituents. This impact might be durable and could impact you both when you buy and sell SPY. But the SPY value including dividends is reduced proportionately. “-” 3.) Forced Selling SPY, by definition, owns equities in the S&P 500. So, when a SPY constituent member is involved in a corporate transaction that creates a security that does not qualify, then SPY’s managers have to sell it. The trading of components in and out of the S&P 500 is often constrained and sloppy. It is not the S&P 500 managers’ jobs to trade such securities with any price sensitivity. Such trading often follows the narrow, specific mandates of SPY at the expense of getting the best prices. Once you contemplate the salient pluses and minuses of SPY, you can then ponder whether or not this is something worth trying to improve upon. Even the great investor Warren Buffett favors a passive investment very similar to SPY for most of his wife’s trust. He did not select Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A ) (NYSE: BRK.B ) as the investment vehicle. Instead, he said: My advice to the trustee couldn’t be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers. You may want to do the same with some or all of your money. Only once you have determined if you want to select securities do you need to bother with sites such as Seeking Alpha. As for me, I do some of each – some passive and some active management of my assets. Conclusion If this is your first day on the site, I hope that some of what I have learned and passed on will be of benefit to you. It took me almost one thousand days to learn. It is what I wish I knew on day one. Seeking Alpha can be a fun, useful, and lucrative part of your financial life. If you think for yourself and find ideas worth putting to work, you can both learn and profit. Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: Chris DeMuth Jr is a portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital. Rangeley invests with a margin of safety by buying securities at deep discounts to their intrinsic value and unlocking that value through corporate events. In order to maximize total returns for our investors, we reserve the right to make investment decisions regarding any security without further notification except where such notification is required by law.