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Will Santa Claus Bring Volatility?

Summary Historically, the holidays provide a brief period of decreasing volatility. This December is filled with unknowns. These unknowns will determine whether stocks finish naughty or nice this year. Hello everyone, I hope you have been doing well. Volatility has turned its head again and is close to backwardation. The purpose of this article is to examine past volatility events and determine the likeliness of a prolonged period of backwardation here. For the basis of discussion, we will use the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA: VXX ). During the last spike in volatility, VXX performed well and has still not touched the previous lows set in August, see below: (click to enlarge) Historically, this time of year bodes well for inverse volatility products such as the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (NASDAQ: XIV ). However, this year, the Santa Clause rally has a Federal Reserve rate hike to deal with. The last spike in volatility came on the back of a decision by the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates. This was taken as a weak sign for the U.S. economy and investors seemed happy to sell off shares to mark the first real correction since 2011-2012. This spike in volatility created a long period of backwardation, see below: (click to enlarge) Now it appears that solid jobs data has put the Federal Reserve back on track for a December rate hike. Financials rallied for a couple of sessions but have since given back the bulk of their gains after news of new capital rules. Retailers were hit hard after very weak guidance from Macy’s (NYSE: M ). Oil stocks continue to take a beating due to stubbornly high inventories and a very strong dollar. What does all this spell for volatility? A very interesting holiday season. Remember back to the article where we discussed the two types of volatility events. You have economic events that drag out over longer periods of time and you have political events that tend to be very short lived. Volatility markets are now struggling with economics. Even though the market recovered, volatility has remained elevated from the ultra-low numbers we saw in the first half of 2015. Volatility investors are becoming more fearful that the U.S. economy may go from slow growth to none at all. Judging by the jobs numbers, the U.S. economy is doing better than most have expected it to. It is going to be a very competitive holiday season for retailers and a warning from one company does not spell doom for the entire industry. After Macy’s warned on traffic, most online retailers remained unchanged. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) has even changed course and opted to offer almost all of its Black Friday deals online. Times change and industries must change as well to remain competitive. What to Watch For I have three things on my volatility radar right now. Retail sales and the Santa Claus rally deserve to be recognized this time of year. Typically, a positive start will result in subdued volatility. Will online retailers more than make up for slow foot traffic? I believe the answer is yes. Score one for Santa. The mid-December possible government shutdown. I absolutely hate gridlock in politics and government shutdowns really aren’t the image we want to portray. But, those events were some of the easiest money ever made on volatility trades. Here’s a look at VXX during the last government shutdown: (click to enlarge) Score one for volatility. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. To hike or not to hike. I believe over the next month or so, the market will price in a hike in rates only leaving the possibility of disappointment in not getting the rate hike they were expecting. Score two for volatility. Conclusion My scorecard shows a higher chance of volatility than we typically see this time of year. If volatility begins to enter overbought conditions by the beginning of December, I will be looking for a short-term short position in VXX or a small long position in XIV. Keep your eye on the ball and wait for an event to play out before you jump in too soon or chase after something that is already gone. It is important to analyze the situation as it develops. We saw during the last volatility event how trigger-happy investors are right now and we could see more of the same should conditions worsen. This should be in your volatility game plan. Thank you so much for reading and for more information on timing the VIX, volatility ETFs, and related volatility education, please check out my library of articles here on Seeking Alpha .

VWEHX: Giving You High Yields Since The ’70s

Summary High-yield bond fund that has shown good returns over the last decade. Junk bonds are in the top end of credit quality. Option to help with reducing risk and volatility in a portfolio. Mutual funds are a great way to improve risk adjusted returns for investors. There are many options when looking for high yield investments and recently I have been looking at high-yield bond funds. Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares (MUTF: VWEHX ) holds high rated “junk bonds” and aims for investors who are looking for consistent income. Since inception in 1978 the fund has had an average annual return of 8.48%. With how well the bonds are chosen and a high yield, this fund has the potential to fit into many portfolios. While it may not beat the market in overall return, there is going to be less risk and volatility to worry about. Expense Ratio The expense ratio is .23% for the minimum investment. This is a surprisingly low expense ratio for an actively managed fund seeking high-yield bonds. There is a minimum investment of $3,000 to invest in this mutual fund. The Lipper peer average expense ratio was 1.11% as of 12/31/2014. The management team had a turnover rate of 34.7% the last fiscal year and has performed well compared to similar funds. Yield VWEHX has a distribution yield of 5.58%, which is great for more current income in a portfolio. The combination of a high yield and a low expense ratio make this fund a definite option. While this fund is correlated on a short term basis to stocks, the high yield needs to be taken into consideration. During an extended down period for the market this high yield is going to greatly reduce the overall loss. However, when we are in a bull market a bond fund is not going to see a lot of growth. Here’s a comparison to the S&P: Even though you can definitely see the correlation, there is a massive difference in volatility. Over a long period of time VWEHX has performed very well on a returns basis because of the high yield. Because of how this fund functions, I wouldn’t have it in my portfolio unless I had a good utilization for the yield. Diversification Here’s a graph showing bond sector allocation: Along with 402 holdings, VWEHX has broad diversification. All the different sector and company exposure is a good first step in protecting against risk. Among the 402 holdings, there is a good balance of diversity without investing too much in a few companies. There is only one holding with over 1% and quickly shifts to the tenth being at .80%: On top of being well diversified, the management has shown over decades their process to choose bonds has worked. The fund uses a fundamental process when looking at credit quality. With how the bonds are chosen there is generally a higher credit quality and less volatility than competitors. The average annual returns over the past ten years has been 6.56% and over five years has been 6.33%. This has been a top performing high yield bond fund since its inception and continues to perform. I normally wouldn’t pay attention to one-year periods, but it makes a point of how this fund does during a bump. Over the last year the fund has had an annual return of .91%, which is in the top 10% for funds in this category. VWEHX’s high yield has saved the day again here. An interesting point to look at this fund is the yield and performance while selecting high-quality junk bonds as shown in the following chart: 90% of the holdings are B3 or above. Management has stated that they will never have more than 10% of the holdings below B quality. Over 85% is in the top end of non-investment grade bonds. There has been some speculation as to how management finds bonds, which can be found here . Whatever exact strategy is used, Wellington Management has done a good job choosing investments for this mutual fund. Conclusion VWEHX is broadly diversified and has had a high sustainable current income. VWEHX has higher credit quality bonds compared to the others junk bond funds. Management has used a credit selection process, which has shown a lower return volatility compared to competitors. High-yield bond funds will have a correlation to the market, but the lower risk and high income coming in from a high yield will get rid of massive bumps in volatility. I would want this fund around 5%-10% of my heavily indexed portfolio to help with income and reduce overall volatility.

Portfolio Construction Techniques: A Brief Review

Summary The mean-variance optimization suggested by Henry Markowitz represents a path-breaking work, the beginning of the so-called Modern Portfolio Theory. This theory has been criticized by some researchers for issues linked to parameter uncertainty. Two main approaches to the problem may be identified: a non-Bayesian and a Bayesian approach. Smart Beta strategies are virtually placed between pure alpha strategies and beta strategies and emphasize capturing investment factors in a transparent way. The article does not determine which strategy is the best, since I believe that the success of an investment technique cannot be determined a priori. Introduction How to allocate capital across different asset classes is a key decision that all investors are required to make. It is widely accepted that holding one or few assets is not advisable, as the proverb “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket” suggests. Hence, practitioners recommend their clients to build portfolios of assets in order to benefit from the effects of diversification. An investor’s portfolio is defined as his/her collection of investment assets. Generally, investors make two types of decisions in constructing portfolios. The first one is called asset allocation, namely the choice among different asset classes. The second one is defined security selection, namely the choice of which particular securities to hold within each asset class. Moreover, portfolio construction could follow two kinds of approaches, namely a top-down or a bottom-up approach. The former consists in facing the asset allocation and security selection choices exactly in this order. The latter inverts the flow of actions, starting from security selection. No matter the kind of approach, investors do need a precise rule to follow when building a portfolio. In fact, the choice of asset classes and/or of securities has to be done rationally. The range of existing strategies is considerably wide. Indeed, one may allocate his/her own capital by splitting it equally among assets, optimizing several functions and/or applying some constraints. Every day in the asset management industry, there are plenty of strategies that are proposed to investors all over the world. The aim of this article is to provide the reader with a comprehensive summary of those. Static and Dynamic Optimization Techniques To begin with, it is worth distinguishing the existing portfolio optimization techniques by the nature of their optimization process. In particular, static and dynamic processes are considered. In the former case, the structure of a portfolio is chosen once for all at the beginning of the period. In the latter case, the structure of the portfolio is continuously adjusted (for a detailed survey on this literature, see Mossin (1968), Samuelson (1969), Merton (1969, 1971), Campbell et al (2003), Campbell & Viceira (2002). Maillard (2011) reports that for highly risk-averse investors, the difference between the two is moderate, whereas it is larger for investors who are less risk averse. Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization Within the static models, it is common knowledge that the mean-variance optimization suggested by Henry Markowitz represents a path-breaking work, the beginning of so-called Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). In fact, Markowitz ( 1952 , 1959 ) presents a revolutionary framework based on the mean and variance of a portfolio of “N” assets. In particular, he claims that if investors care only about mean and variance, they would hold the same portfolio of risky assets, combined with cash holdings, whose proportion depends on their risk aversion. Despite of its wide success, this theory has been criticized by some researchers for issues linked to parameter uncertainty. In fact, the true model parameters are unknown and have to be estimated from the data, resulting in several estimation error problems. The subsequent literature has focused on improving the mean-variance framework in several ways. However, two main approaches to the problem may be identified, namely a non-Bayesian and a Bayesian approach. Two Approaches As far as the former is concerned, it is worth reporting several studies. For instance, Goldfarb & Iyengar (2003) and Garlappi et al. (2007) provide robust formulations to contrast the sensitivity of the optimal portfolio to statistical and modelling errors in the estimates of the relevant parameters. In addition, Lee (1977) and Kraus & Litzenberger (1976) present alternative portfolio theories that include more moments such as skewness; Fama (1965) and Elton & Gruber (1974) are more accurate in describing the distribution of return, while Best & Grauer (1992), Chan et al. (1999) and Ledoit & Wolf (2004a, 2004b) focus on methods that aim to reduce the estimation error of the covariance matrix. Other approaches involve the application of some constraints. MacKinlay & Pastor (2000) impose constraints on moments of assets returns, Jagannathan & Ma (2003) adopt short-sale constraints, Chekhlov et al (2000) drawdown constraints, Jorion (2002) tracking-error constraints, while Chopra (1993) and Frost & Savarino (1988) propose constrained portfolio weights. On the other hand, the Bayesian approach plays a prominent role in the literature. It is based on Stein (1955) , who proved the inadmissibility of the sample mean as an estimator for multivariate portfolio problems. In fact, he advises to apply the Bayesian shrinkage estimator that minimizes the errors in the return expectations, rather than trying to minimize the errors in each asset class return expectation separately. In following studies, this approach has been implemented in multiple ways. Barry (1974) and Bawa et al (1979) use either a non-informative diffuse prior or a predictive distribution obtained by integrating over the unknown parameter. Then, Jobson & Korkie (1980), Jorion (1985, 1986) and Frost & Savarino (1986) use empirical Bayes estimators, which shrink estimated returns closer to a common value and move the portfolio weights closer to the global minimum-variance portfolio. Finally, Pastor (2000), and Pastor & Stambaugh (2000) use the equilibrium implications of an asset-pricing model to establish a prior. Simpler Models To attempt portfolio construction throughout optimization is not the only alternative, though. In fact, alongside the wide range of portfolio optimization techniques, it is also worth considering other rules that require no estimation of parameters and no optimization at all. DeMiguel at al (2005) define them as ” simple asset-allocation rules “. For instance, one could just allocate all the wealth in a single asset, i.e., the market portfolio . Alternatively, investors may adopt the 1/N rule, dividing their wealth according to an equal-weighting scheme. At this point, the reader may wonder why one should consider this kind of rules. In fact, techniques that require no optimization should not be optimal according to any measure. However, as far as the naïve 1/N is concerned, some researchers have reported some interesting results. For instance, Benartzi & Thaler (2001) and Liang & Weisbenner (2002) show that more than a third of direct contribution plan participants allocate their assets equally among investment options, obtaining good returns. Moreover, Huberman & Jiang (2006) find similar results. Similarly, DeMiguel et al (2009) evaluate 14 models across seven empirical datasets, finding that none is consistently better than the 1/N rule in terms of Sharpe ratio, certainty-equivalent return or turnover. However, Tu & Zhou (2011) challenge DeMiguel et al. (2009) combining sophisticated optimization approaches with the naïve 1/N technique. Their findings confirm that the combined rules have a significant impact in improving the sophisticated strategies and in outperforming the simple 1/N rule. Moreover, other naïve rules are reported by Chow et al. (2013), such as the 1/σ and the 1/β, included in the so-called low-volatility investing methods. In particular, they report that low-volatility investing provides higher returns at lower risk than traditional cap-weighted indexing, at the cost of underperformance in upward-trending environments. Smart Beta Strategies Finally, it is worth mentioning a special group of strategies that are extremely popular among asset management firms, known as Smart Beta strategies. Smart Beta strategies are virtually placed between pure alpha strategies and beta strategies, and emphasise capturing investment factors in a transparent way, such as value, size, quality and momentum. Examples of these strategies are risk parity, minimum volatility, maximum diversification and many others. Apart from the wide range of these kinds of techniques, it is critical to highlight why they are so diffuse among practitioners. Their enormous success is due to several interesting advantages, including the flexibility to access tailored market exposures, improved control of portfolio exposures and the potential to achieve improved return/risk trade-offs. Final Remarks This article aims to be a summary of the most notorious techniques considered in the existing literature, but the list is far from being complete. Moreover, the article does not analyze which strategy is the best, since I believe that the success of an investment technique depends on several factors, including the time frame considered, the kind of assets, the geography of the examined portfolio, the client’s preferences, and it surely must rely on a quantitative application using real or simulated data.