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No Imminent Lift Off? Time For These Dividend ETFs

Dividend investing has seen a lukewarm year so far in the U.S. as the markets speculated a faster-than-expected Fed lift-off prompted by steady growth in the domestic economy. As a result, most dividend ETFs are trading in red in the year-to-date frame. However, a volatile start to Q4 has once again put the spotlight on income-focused investing. Moreover, a still-patient Fed and the likelihood of more cheap money inflows cheered up dividend investing all over again. Be it bonds, high dividend equities, or pass-through securities, picks that target higher yielding securities have fared well since the dovish September Fed meet. The allure rose further after the U.S. economy reported sub-par job data for the month of September last week. The soft jobs’ report has raised questions over the health of the U.S. economy and the fate of Fed’s policy tightening. Headline job gains for September came in at 142K versus the estimated 200K and the prior month’s tally of 136K (read: ETFs that Gained & Lost Post Dismal Job Data ). The originally reported July tally was also revised lower to 223K from 245K originally. The year-to-date monthly pace of job gains now averages 198K, though the pace for the last three months was way lower at 167K. This goes against the monthly average of 260K for 2014. While a subdued inflation data and global growth worries were already obstacles on the course of the Fed policy, the job data made the case worse and Fed’s policy tightening seems some way off. Investors who were earlier overconfident about a December rate hike in the U.S., have now started to push back the timeline to early next year, presuming a sluggish U.S. economic rebound. While it is a decent setting for capital gains, Treasury bond yields slumped and are at 2.07% at the time of writing, leading some to believe that a new bull market may be at hand. In this type of an environment, investors can count on income picks for Q4. While individual stock pick is always an option, ETFs give options to fairly diversify one’s portfolio. 4 Dividend ETF Picks for Q4 SPDR S&P International Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: DWX ) If you want to stay global, DWX could be your ticket as this fund focuses only on high yielding stocks from around the globe. After all, most developed economies are supposed to carry on their accommodative stance next year unlike the U.S. This is done by tracking the S&P International Dividend Opportunities Index, a benchmark that holds about 100 securities in its basket. Currently, the $1 billion-fund is a bit heavy on traditional high yield sectors like financials (24.8%), utilities (22.8%), telecom (15.9%), and energy (14.2%), though no single company accounts for more than 3.4% of the total assets. In terms of yields, this pays a solid 5.91%, while it charges investors a reasonable 45 basis points a year in fees for the service. The fund was up over 6.9% in the last five days (as of October 5, 2015). Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSEARCA: VYM ) This large cap centric fund provides exposure to the high yielding U.S. dividend stocks by tracking the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index and could thus be a lucrative option for those seeking higher current income. The ETF is one of the largest and popular choices in the dividend ETF space with AUM of over $10.3 billion. Expense ratio comes in at 10 bps (read: 3 Excellent Dividend ETFs for Growth and Income ). In terms of sector, the fund is widely spread out with financials, consumer goods, technology, industrials, health care, and oil & gas taking double-digit exposure in the basket. The fund yields 3.33% as of October 5 and was up over 5.6% in the last five trading sessions. The ETF has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a Medium risk outlook (read: 3 Cheap Value ETFs with Strong Dividend ). Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHD ) This fund tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, which measures the performance of high dividend yielding U.S. stocks that have a record of consistently paying dividends. Notably, companies, that raise dividends regularly, appear steadier than those which offer higher yields. In a market crash, these dividend aristocrats stand out pretty strong and navigate through volatility. The product has already amassed roughly $2.51 billion in assets and has a dividend yield of 3.15%. The fund charges a meager 7 bps in fees and trades in solid volume of more than 500,000 shares per day. Consumer Staples is the fund’s focus sector with about one-fourth exposure followed by IT (19.74%) and Industrials (13.85%). It currently has a Zacks Rank #3 and added about 5.3% in the last five trading sessions (as of October 5, 2015). SPDR Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: SDY ) This fund provides exposure to the 102 U.S. stocks that have been consistently increasing their dividend every year for at least 25 years. It follows the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index and has amassed $12 billion in AUM. Volume is solid, exchanging more than 765,000 shares in hand, while expense ratio comes in at 0.35%. The product is widely diversified across components as each security accounts for less than 2.81% of total assets. Financials is the top sector taking up one-fourth of the portfolio while consumer staples (15.1%), industrials (13.4%) and utilities (11.8%) round off the next three spots. The fund was up nearly 5% in the last five days and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3. Link to the original post on Zacks.com

2 Aristocrat ETFs

Summary Both NOBL and SDY replicate the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index. A long-term investor might consider to possess a position in this type of ETF instead of purchasing dozens of different stocks. Here is a comparison between these two ETFs with high-quality holdings. Following my recent article regarding the SPDR Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: SDY ), I have been asked whether SDY is also attractive when compared to the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NYSEARCA: NOBL ). In order to compare between these two exchange-traded funds, I have added a third benchmark that represents the S&P 500 Index: the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ). At first, I looked at the profile of the two ETFs that aim to follow the Dividend Aristocrats index. ETF Profile: Based on information from etfdb.com, it seems that in term of fees, both SDY and NOBL share the same expense ratio at 0.35% a year. SPY is cheaper, as it charges only 0.09%. Another observation is that the number of SDY’s holdings is double that of NOBL’s holdings. SDY is actually following the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index, or “The Index of Champions”. This list includes more than 100 companies and can be found in David Fish’s CCC list . This is a composition of companies that increased their dividends in the last 25 consecutive years, including companies that had paid higher dividends in every calendar year. NOBL includes 53 holdings which follow the criterion of annual dividend increase for at least 25 years. The full list of Dividend Aristocrats can be found here . The difference in lists is demonstrated through both the top ten holdings and the sector-wise distribution of each ETF’s holdings: (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) While NOBL holdings are leaning towards Consumer Defensive and Industrial sectors with companies like The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG ), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ) and Pentair Inc. (NYSE: PNR ), SDY is almost equally invested in Consumer Defensive, Industrials as well as Financial Services and REITs. Companies like Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE: FRT ), National Retail Properties, Inc. (NYSE: NNN ) and 1st Source Corporation (NASDAQ: SRCE ) are captured in SDY and not in NOBL. That is the reason why SDY can provide a higher dividend yield. ETF Performance: When comparing the performance of SDY, NOBL and SPY, we can see that since January 2014 until September 2015, NOBL actually did very well. In the recent sell-off, it actually dropped the least compared to the other two ETFs. NOBL ETF was established in late 2013, so it does not possess a historical performance track record. SDY’s return is lower on both the 3-year returns as well as the 5-year returns compared to SPY, as it is heavily tending towards Value holdings, while SPY’s holdings includes Growth companies. ETF Volatility: When comparing the volatility of these three ETFs, based on the Coefficient of Variation metric (Standard deviation divided by Average price), it was SDY which demonstrated the lowest volatility in the long run (0.035), while NOBL demonstrated lower volatility throughout the recent sell-off (0.023). ETF Payout: Both NOBL and SDY are trying to follow an index of dividend-paying stocks. NOBL has a short payout history, and therefore, by using the 2014 payout levels, which was 80c per share, the dividend yield in 2015 should be ~1.74%. If extrapolating the distribution that was paid in the first half of 2015, the dividend yield is expected to be closer to 2%. So, NOBL’s dividend rate is ~2%. SDY usually pays an extra payout in the last quarter of a calendar year. Using at the distribution levels of $3.74 per share in 2014, the yield is very close to 4%. Using the first half of 2015 as a proxy for the second half of the year, the yield is 2.5%. In either case, it is clear that the higher diversity that SDY holds allows the ETF to pay higher dividend yield to its shareholders. Conclusions: Both SDY and NOBL are ETFs that replicate indexes of top quality. NOBL’s core holdings are the top 50 Dividend Aristocrats, while SDY’s holdings list is broader. The broader list allows SDY to pay higher dividend, but it holds slightly higher risk. For investors who seek dividend income, SDY is the way to go. For investors who seek high quality with low volatility, NOBL is the way to go. For investors who are willing to take higher risk, care less about the dividend for higher return in the long run, SPY is the way to go. I am currently in favor of SDY due to its payout. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: The opinions of the author are not recommendations to either buy or sell any security. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decision.

An Opportunity During Cloudy Days

Summary The volatility in the markets continues . With anxiety arrives opportunities. Here is one ETF with relatively low volatility and high dividend yield. The stock markets continue to move aggressively up and down. The uncertainty regarding the FED’s action next week drives the investors to levels of high anxiety where every small publication or clue regarding the coming interest rate hike leads to high volatility. History showed us that volatility phases are not short by nature and the best example to use is the 2011 summer selloff that took place due to the European debt concerns, and moreover, due to the U.S. credit rating downgrade. The length of high volatility phase back than was about three months, from early August till mid October. As the markets continue to be highly volatile opportunities for the long term, patient, investor are piling up. The first group of candidates to explore are the group of Aristocrats. Dividend Aristocrats are companies that have increased their dividend payouts to shareholders every year for the last 25 years. Among the more familiar names in this group are The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO ), Chevron (NYSE: CVX ), AT&T (NYSE: T ) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ). Overall there are about fifty members in this prestigious list of dividend stocks that are included in the Dividend Aristocrats index. Since pursuing fifty stocks in not really achievable the next best thing is to pursue an holding in an ETF that follows this index. SPDR Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: SDY ) is a passive ETF that seeks to replicate S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. I have written about SDY back in April when concerns regarding a correction that was coming about arose. Based on etfdb.com SDY has total of 101 holdings. That means that beyond tracking the Dividend Aristocrats Index the ETF is following the “Index of Champions” which, based on David Fish’s latest article , includes 106 companies. In order to assess the attractiveness of SPY compared to other ETFs I used the list of my best Big Cap ETFs that were published back in July : Vanguard Value ETF (NYSEARCA: VTV ), Vanguard Russell 1000 Value ETF (NASDAQ: VONV ), Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF (NYSEARCA: VOOV ) and SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ). The behavior back in 2011: (click to enlarge) When looking at the graph which compares the performance of the five ETFs, going from January to October 2011, we can see that SDY delivered the best return compared to all benchmarks. During that time period between January to October it delivered a positive 1.8% while the other ETF delivered negative returns up to -3.9% . When zooming in to the crisis period, between June to October 2011 it was again SDY that delivered the best performance, dropping by only 2.2% while the other benchmark ETFs went down by up to 7.8% . When comparing the volatility of these ETFs using a Coefficient of Variation metric (Standard deviation divided by Average price) SDY also comes out with the lowest volatility score. Back to 2015: (click to enlarge) When comparing the same list of ETFs during a similar timeframe in 2015, going from January to September, SDY is still one of the better ETF performers delivering a -8.8% which is only second to SPY which delivered -6.3% during that timeframe. When zooming in to the crisis period, June to September 2015, SDY delivered the best return at -8.9% while the other ETFs delivered lower performance all the way down to -10.7% . While delivering the highest performance DY also demonstrated the lowest volatility during that timeframe of high volatility. Based on Morningstar.com SDY’s current dividend yield is at 2.46%. In 2014 the ETF delivered more that $3 to its shareholders and therefore I believe that the dividend return at these levels is higher that 3%. Conclusions: With high volatility arrive opportunities. SDY is an ETF that follows one of the most prestigious indexes. With lower volatility compared to its benchmarks I find it very attractive and waiting for it at $65. Happy investing Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: The opinions of the author are not recommendations to either buy or sell any security. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decision.