Tesla Goes To Geneva Motor Show: What It Means For Model X
Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) stock rose a fraction Monday as a Credit Suisse analyst sounded optimistic on production after a visit with the new CFO in a Tesla car factory tour, ahead of the Geneva International Motor Show. Shares earlier in the day were up more than 3%, before reports of a walkout of more than 100 union workers at Tesla’s battery factory site in Nevada. This could be a week to watch the electric car maker’s stock for those reasons, and with Tesla — which doesn’t frequent all the major auto shows — taking part in the Geneva auto show that starts Thursday. A post on Twitter by @TeslaMotors on Monday highlighted how Tesla will use the show to give the Model X crossover its European debut. “Model S keeps an eye on his big brother as it arrives in Europe,” Tesla tweeted Monday, adding the hashtags #MeetModelX and #GIMS, for the show name. What the company says at the show could yield clues about how strongly it’s been able to ramp up initially-slow production of the Model X. For instance, how soon could a European buyer expect to take delivery after ordering a Model X? Global Equities Research co-founder Trip Chowdhry told IBD last quarter that deliveries appeared to be kept especially close to the automaker’s home base, in California. Other automakers’ introductions and comments at the show will provide a checkup on potential competition from the likes of Toyota ( TM ), BMW, Daimler ( DDAIF ) and Volkswagen ( VLKAY ). Model S keeps an eye on his big brother as it arrives in Europe for @gims_live #MeetModelX #GIMS pic.twitter.com/wq8lf2ixpV — Tesla Motors (@TeslaMotors) February 29, 2016 Toyota, for example, plans the world debut of its 2018 Lexus LC 500h hybrid luxury sport coupe in Geneva, after its initial peek at the North American International Auto Show in January. The Geneva show starts with press days on Tuesday local time, which is Monday night on the U.S. East Coast. Toyota’s press conference was set for 11:30 p.m. ET Monday, with details expected on its new multistage hybrid system. Many electrics and hybrids will be on display, from BMW, Hyundai and others, while conventional SUVs are seen making a strong return coincidental to low oil prices. Getting ready for the Big Day #MeetModelX #GIMS #GenevaMotorShow pic.twitter.com/P8D6hSSyih — Tesla Motors (@TeslaMotors) February 29, 2016 When Will Tesla Model 3 Debut? Tesla is due to unveil its smaller vehicle, the mass-market Model 3, on March 31, while it’s also building a battery gigafactory in Nevada that is key to bringing battery costs down enough so that a car can sell for $35,000 — about half of the entry price for Tesla’s current luxury lineup, the Model S sedan and Model X crossover. The Model 3 is meant to compete with the likes of the BMW 3 Series and Volkswagen’s Audi A4, as well as long-range EVs such as General Motors ’ ( GM ) Chevrolet Bolt. However, not all is running smoothly in gigafactory construction. At least 100 workers at the site near Reno walked off the job on Monday, protesting the use of workers from other states, Bloomberg reported, citing a union official as the source. Analyst Chowdhry contrasted conventional automakers against Tesla in a Monday research note in which he said the gigafactory may be worth $600 billion on its own. He considered that it was started with a $5 billion investment while the rest of the auto industry “is burning more than $8 billion per year on advertisement.” Tesla doesn’t advertise. Analysts Tour Tesla Factory Credit Suisse recently hosted an analyst tour of Tesla’s car assembly plant in Fremont, Calif., where participants got a Q&A session with Tesla’s new chief financial officer, Jason Wheeler. “The plant seemed more evolved since we were there in mid-2014 . . . more organized and automated,” Credit Suisse analyst Dan Galves wrote in a research note Sunday. He kept his outperform rating on Tesla stock. Galves added that “over time, the company sees potential for substantial production cost declines” and “the CFO clearly sees operating leverage and cash burn reduction as top priorities in 2016.” From a production setup first targeted at about 40,000-50,000 for the Model S and Model X combined, Galves wrote, capacity actions over the last 18 months included, among other things, a final assembly capable of more than 100,000 units a year. Tesla’s ability to scale-up production is one thing that analysts have been watching closely. If the ramp-up of Model X production progresses well and reviews are positive, Galves says, Wall Street may “look through” the point that significant improvements in cash flow and margin are apt to be weighted toward the back half of this year. Analyst Chowdhry told IBD at the end of Q4 that Tesla was keeping a “tight feedback and production loop” by making its initial Model X deliveries relatively close to its Northern California factory location. “Remember this car is completely new — it has a lot of new designs, new suppliers and a lot of features that have never existed before,” he said. The falcon-wing doors that open up and flex to avoid hitting a garage ceiling are a case in point. IBD Tesla Stock Analysis Tesla doesn’t currently get a strong ranking from IBD — its Composite Rating is just 21 out of a possible 99, but Tesla stock has recently made a run back up to near its key 50-day line. It tanked below the line Jan. 4 when the company gave its preliminary fourth-quarter and 2015 car unit sales report of 50,580 vehicle deliveries for the year, at the low end of its guidance, as demand skepticism took hold . The rebound began the second week of February as Tesla 2016 car-deliveries guidance was set at between 80,000 and 90,000 Model S and Model X units. (That week in Tesla’s Q4 report , which included a surprise Q4 loss amid costs of production ramp-up, actual 2015 deliveries came in at 50,658 vehicles.) While the S&P 500 index has declined 5% this year, Tesla stock is down 20% year to date after gaining 8% in 2015, jumping 48% in 2014, and rocketing 344% in 2013.