Federal regulators and Verizon Communications ( VZ ) have zeroed in on airwaves that could make the U.S. the global leader in rolling out 5G wireless services. One market opportunity for 5G may be as a challenger to the cable TV industry’s broadband dominance. Think Verizon Wireless, not Verizon’s FiOS-branded landline service, vs. the likes of Comcast ( CMCSA ) or Charter Communications ( CHTR ). First, though, airwaves need to be freed up for 5G. That’s where high-frequency radio spectrum, also called millimeter wave, comes in. In particular, U.S. regulators are focused on the 28 gigahertz frequency band, analysts say. Most wireless phone services today use radio frequency below 3 GHz. If 28 GHz or millimeter wave rings a bell, that’s because several fixed wireless startups (WinStar, Teligent, Nextlink, Terabeam) tried and failed in commercializing products relying on high-frequency airwaves during the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. Business models were suspect, and their LMDS (local multipoint distribution services) were susceptible to interference from rain and other environmental conditions. Waves Of The Future? When the tech bubble burst in 2000-01, the LMDS startups perished. Technology advances, however, could make the high-frequency airwaves prime candidates for 5G. “In the 1990s, with LMDS, mobile data wasn’t mature, and neither was the Internet, and neither was the electronics industry — it couldn’t make low cost, mmWave devices,” said Ted Rappaport, founding director of NYU Wireless, New York University’s research center on millimeter-wave technologies. “Wi-Fi was really brand new then, and broadband backhaul was not even built out. LMDS was originally conceived to be like fiber, to serve as backhaul (long-distance), or point-to-multipoint, and was not for mobile services. Fast forward to today, backhaul is in place to accommodate demand, and electronics at mmWave frequencies are being mass-produced in cars. Demand for data is increasing more than 50% a year, and the only way to continue to supply capacity to users is to move up to (millimeter wave).” The Federal Communications Commission in October opened a study looking at 28, 37, 39, and 60 GHz as the primary bands for 5G. While the FCC says 28 GHz airwaves show promise, some countries have been focused on higher frequencies rather than 28 GHz. FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler, speaking at a U.S. Senate committee hearing on March 2, said: “While international coordination is preferable, I believe we should move forward with exploration of the 28 GHz band.” Wheeler said that the U.S. will lead the world in 5G and allocate spectrum “faster than any nation on the planet.” Verizon Makes Deals Verizon, meanwhile, on Feb. 22 agreed to buy privately held XO Communications’ fiber-optic network business for about $1.8 billion. In a side deal, Verizon will also lease XO’s wireless spectrum in the 28 GHz to 31 GHz bands, with an option to buy for $200 million by the end of 2018. XO’s spectrum covers some of the largest U.S. metro areas, including New York, Boston, Chicago, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles, as well as Tampa, Fla. and Austin, Texas. Verizon CFO Fran Shammo commented on the XO deal at a Morgan Stanley conference on March 1. “Right now we have licenses issued to us from the FCC for trial purposes at 28 GHz. The XO deal gave us additional 28 GHz,” Shammo said. “The rental agreement enables us to include that (XO spectrum) in some of our R&D development with 28 GHz. So that just continues the path that we’re on in launching 5G as soon as the FCC clears spectrum.” He noted that Japan and South Korea plan to test 5G services using 28 GHz and 39 GHz airwaves. Some analysts doubt 28 GHz airwaves will be on a fast track. “We are skeptical, not only on the timing of the availability of 28 GHz, but also its ultimate viability in a mobile wireless network,” Walter Piecyk, analyst at BTIG Research, said in a report. Boosting signal strength at higher frequencies is a challenge for wireless firms. Low-frequency airwaves travel over long distances and also through walls, improving in-building services. One approach to increase propagation in millimeter wave bands, analysts say, is using more “small-cell” radio antennas, which increase network capacity. Wireless firms generally use large cell towers to connect mobile phone calls and whisk video and email to mobile phone users. They also install radio antennas on building rooftops, church steeples, or billboards. Suitcase-sized antennas used in small-cell technology are often mounted on lamp posts or utility poles. Verizon has been testing small-cell technology in Boston. When Will 5G Happen? Verizon says it will begin rolling out 5G commercially in 2017, though its plans are still vague. While many wireless service providers touted 5G plans and tests at the Mobile World Congress in February, makers of telecom network equipment are being cautious. “General consensus (at MWC) seemed to indicate that the 2020-time-frame will mark full-scale 5G deployments,” Barclays analyst Mark Moskowitz said in a report. Verizon has said it doesn’t expect 5G networks to replace existing 4G ones. While 5G is expected to provide much faster data speeds, wireless firms also expect applications that require always-on, low-data-rate connections. The apps involve data-gathering from industrial sensors, home appliances and other devices often referred to as part of the Internet of Things. Both Verizon and AT&T ( T ) have recently touted 5G speeds up to 1-gigabit-per-second. That’s roughly 50 times faster than the average speeds of 4G wireless networks in good conditions. AT&T Chief Executive Randall Stephenson recently said 5G speeds could match fiber-optic broadband connections to homes. At the Morgan Stanley conference, Verizon’s Shammo also said 5G could be a “substitute product for broadband.” Regulators would like to create new competition for cable TV companies. But, Verizon says, it’s still early days. “With trials, we’ll figure out exactly what we can deliver, what the base cases are,” said Shammo. “5G has the capability to be a substitute for broadband into the home with a fixed wireless solution. The question is can you deploy that technology and actually make money at a price that the consumer would pay?” Sanyogita Shamsunder, Verizon’s director of network infrastructure planning, says high frequencies can support 5G. “Radio frequency components today are able to support much wider bandwidth (think wide lanes on the highway) when compared to even 10 years ago. What it means is we are able to pump more bits at the same time,” said Shamsunder, in an email. “Due to improvements in antenna and RF technology,” she added, “we are able to support 100s of small tiny antennas on a small die the size of a quarter.”