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Bill Gross Cautious On Rate Hike In 2015: 2 Investment Grade Bond Funds To Buy

According to the ‘Bond King’ or bond investor extraordinaire William Hunt ‘Bill’ Gross, the good times may be over and many asset prices may drop in 2015. Record-low rates have failed to spur enough economic growth, according to Gross, and he believes the Fed may not be in a position to hike rates until late this year, if it at all does. “With the dollar strengthening and oil prices declining, it is hard to see even the Fed raising short rates until late in 2015, if at all,” said Gross, who is now in charge of the Janus Unconstrained Bond Fund. In an investment outlook for the Janus Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE: JNS ), Gross said investors would look for alternatives to risky assets. Gross Warns of ‘Minus Signs of Returns’ Gross seemed extremely cautious on 2015. Global economic growth is not enough even after years of low rates, and this may lead investors to seek alternatives to risky assets. The fact that borrowing costs are still stuck at near zero even after over half a decade of the end of the recession shows investors’ lack of confidence in the economic strength. “Be cautious and content with low positive returns in 2015. The time for risk taking has passed,” said Gross. He added, “At some future date … asset returns in many categories may turn negative.” This year has already begun on a dismal note for the benchmarks, registering their biggest declines to begin a year since 2008. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 2.6%, 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively, year to date. However, 2014 too had begun with losses for these benchmarks. Gross however supports holding high-quality assets that have stable cash flows. He said that investors’ focus on “Treasury and high-quality corporate bonds, as well as equities of lightly levered corporations with attractive dividends and diversified revenues both operationally and geographically.” Debt Supercycle? Bill Gross warned of “minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes” at the end of 2015. The creation of cheap money by the central banks might face a troubled end. Gross believes that the realization of the debt supercycle approaching an end would show the markets’ gains as ‘debt-fueled sugar high,’ reported The Wall Street Journal. The recent years of the Bull Run was sparked by low rates and accelerated credit growth. Gross states that the central banks have countered challenges by rounds of credit creation and low rates. Gross said: The power of additional and cheaper credit to add to economic growth and financial-asset bull markets has been underappreciated by investors since 1981…Investors have continued to assume that monetary (and at times fiscal) policy could contain the long-term business cycle. However, Gross believes that the debt supercycle is nearing its end. It ends “when yields, asset prices and the increasing amount of credit place an unreasonable burden on the balancing scale of risk and return.” Growth Concerns Global economic growth concerns surfaced in 2015, with the Eurozone particularly posting dismal growth numbers. Japan too had entered a technical recession. Chinese economic data was shaky as well. However, the U.S. has outperformed these major economies and reported 5% growth in the third quarter of 2014. Gross believes that the growth rates in developed and developing nations are failing as a lot of capital is put into “risk-free” capital markets instead of the real economy. Now, there are concerns about Greek exiting the euro. The latest turmoil comes while the oil prices have slumped below $50 a barrel. These factors have combined to send the U.S. markets tumbling by the worst margins to start a year since 2008. Fed’s Stance In the Fed statement following the two-day policy meeting last month, the central bank sounded positive regarding economic growth and also mentioned that they will show some patience before hiking interest rates. The Fed stated: Based on its current assessment, the committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. Investment Grade Bond Funds to Benefit A low interest rate environment is favorable for investments in bond funds. This stems from the fact that market value of a bond is inversely proportional to the interest rates. The primary forms of bond risk include default risk and the interest rate risk. The latter is obviously the most important these days. Meanwhile, global government bond yields dropped to a new low recently. 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield was down to 1.964% on Tuesday, the lowest since May 2013. Gross warns that investors “do not look, therefore, for economic growth to be the magic elixir for 2015.” He suggests, “Investors should be flexible and consider more liquid securities. Fixed income with shorter maturities is one starting place.” Investors agreeing with Gross’ views may thus look for investing in Investment Grade Bond funds. Bill Gross suggests “high-quality corporate bonds.” Here we will suggest 2 Investment Grade Bond Funds that carry a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) as we expect the funds to outperform its peers in the future. The funds have decent 1-year return. They also have beta of less than 1. Funds having betas within this range will show less volatility than the broader markets. BlackRock Total Return Services (MUTF: MSHQX ) seeks total return that outperform Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Over 90% of the fund’s assets are invested in varied fixed-income securities such as corporate bonds and notes, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, convertible securities, preferred securities and government obligations. It mostly invests in investment grade fixed-income securities. It is a feeder fund, investing in a corresponding “master” portfolio. The fund has a one-year return of 8.3% and carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy). It has a one-year beta of 0.94. It carries an expense ratio of 0.76% as compared to category average of 0.86%. Nuveen Core Plus Bond A (MUTF: FAFIX ) seeks to provide current income along with limited risk to capital. It invests the majority of its assets in bonds. These include U.S. government securities that may include zero coupon securities, residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities, and corporate debt obligations among others. The fund has a one-year return of 5.2% and carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy). It has a one-year beta of 0.92. It carries an expense ratio of 0.77% as compared to category average of 0.86%.

How Are Housing ETFs Poised For The New Year?

The housing construction market has recovered at a steady and gradual pace in the second half of 2014 after a slump at the beginning of the year. Overall economic growth, improving job numbers, growing consumer confidence, moderating home prices, stabilizing mortgage rates and a low level of housing inventory all led to the improvement. A string of housing data released lately portrays a mixed to slightly positive picture of the housing market. Existing home sales and new home sales rose in the month of October. Though housing starts declined in October and November, analysts in general believe the broader housing trends are stable to slightly positive and will pick up momentum in the New Year. Homebuilders are also turning more optimistic as demand for new homes rises with an improving job market and growing consumer confidence. Homebuilders’ confidence, as indicated by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo housing market index, rose 4 points to 58 in November. Though the index declined a point to 57 in December, it is still well above 50, which is the demarcating line between expanding and contracting activity levels. However, what keeps us concerned are the chances of a rise in short-term interest rates in 2015 as the Fed has already ended its six-year long quantitative easing program in October. Though the Fed had earlier promised to keep the key interest rate at record low for a ‘considerable time,’ investors are speculating about the timing of the planned rate hike. The robust job numbers might draw the Federal Reserve closer to raising interest rates. Higher interest/mortgage interest rates may have a moderating effect on housing demand and pricing. ETFs to Tap the Sector Given the improving fundamentals, the homebuilding sector deserves a closer look. For investors willing to play the space in a less risky way, an ETF approach can be a good idea. This technique can help to spread out assets among a wide variety of companies and reduce company specific risk at a very low cost. Below, we have highlighted three ETFs that are worth looking into. The SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA: XHB ) XHB is one of the more popular homebuilding ETFs in the market today with assets under management of around $1.48 billion and a trading volume of roughly 4.07 million shares a day. The fund has an expense ratio of 35 basis points. The fund holds 37 stocks in its basket, with 44% of the assets going to mid caps and 6% comprising large cap stocks. Despite the smaller holding pattern, the fund does not appear to be concentrated in the top 10 holdings. The fund has just 34.1% in the top 10 with Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW ), Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE: WHR ) and Restoration Hardware Holdings (NYSE: RH ) occupying the top 3 positions with asset allocation of 3.64%, 3.63% and 3.56%, respectively. The fund’s assets include 33% homebuilders, 15% household appliances securities, 26% specialty retail stocks and the balance 26% building materials companies. The fund carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a high level of risk. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSEARCA: ITB ) Another popular choice in the homebuilding sector is ITB, which tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index. It has $1.55 billion in assets with a trading volume of roughly 3.5 million shares a day, while its expense ratio is just 45 basis points. The fund holds 39 stocks in its basket, out of which only 12% are large cap securities. The fund has a concentrated approach in the top 10 holdings with 62.9% of the asset base invested in them. Among individual holdings, top stocks in the ETF include D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI ), Lennar (NYSE: LEN ) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM ) with asset allocation of 10.97%, 10.53% and 9.67%, respectively. Homebuilders accounts for around 64% of this fund. The fund carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a high level of risk. The PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construction Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PKB ) This ETF comprises around 30 housing companies and has its assets invested across all classes of the market spectrum. Engineering and construction stocks comprise 21% of the fund, followed by building materials companies that account for 17%. A look at the style pattern reveals that the fund has a preference for value stocks. The fund manages an asset base of $58.0 million and has an expense ratio of 63 basis points. The fund has only 16% in large cap securities and 46.1% in the top 10 holdings. The fund carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a High level of risk. To Sum Up The housing market has improved dramatically from the trough year of 2009. Homebuilding activity is expected to take a cue from improving job numbers and a rebounding economy. Though the timing of a rise in interest rates creates uncertainty, homebuilders are increasingly optimistic of a pick up in sales in the New Year.

In Search Of Income: Covered Call CEFs (Part II – Specific Funds)

Summary There are 20+ covered call CEFs that Convergence Investments considers potentially investable. Funds can be measured and should be evaluated based on income generation, NAV performance, valuation, and a variety of other factors. We currently find BDJ, ETJ, and NFJ to be well balanced, attractive funds worthy of investor consideration. Our previous article profiled and analyzed the sector of closed-end funds that utilize covered call strategies. Please refer to that article for a background description on the sector as a whole. This article will dig deeper into specific recommendations of especially attractive covered call CEFs for income-seeking investors to consider. Universe of Included Funds The Convergence investing universe consists of more than 475 closed-end funds across all available equity and bond sectors, after filtering for funds that we consider not investable for a variety of reasons (the most common being size/liquidity, NAV transparency). The covered call segment consists of the following closed-end funds: BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust (NYSE: BDJ ) BlackRock International Growth & Income Trust (NYSE: BGY ) BlackRock Global Opportunities Equity Trust (NYSE: BOE ) BlackRock Enhanced Capital & Income Fund (NYSE: CII ) Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund (NYSE: EOI ) Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund II (NYSE: EOS ) Eaton Vance Risk-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (NYSE: ETJ ) Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund (NYSE: ETV ) Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Buy-Write Opportunities Fund (NYSE: ETW ) Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (NYSE: ETY ) Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund (NYSE: EXG ) First Trust Enhanced Equity Income Fund (NYSE: FFA ) GAMCO Natural Resources Gold & Income Trust (NYSE: GNT ) Guggenheim Enhanced Equity Income Fund (NYSE: GPM ) ING Global Advantage & Premium Opportunity Fund (NYSE: IGA ) ING Global Equity Dividend & Premium Opportunity Fund (NYSE: IGD ) Cohen & Steers Global Income Builder (NYSE: INB ) Voya Natural Resources Equity Income Fund (NYSE: IRR ) Madison Covered Call & Equity Strategy Fund (NYSE: MCN ) Madison Strategic Sector Premium Fund (NYSE: MSP ) NFJ Dividend & Premium Strategy Fund (NYSE: NFJ ) Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund (NYSE: STK ) Evaluating Investment in Covered Call Funds There are many qualitative and quantitative factors that prospective investors can consider when evaluating a closed-end fund. Convergence Investments summarizes these many factors into six dimensions useful for comparing and choosing investments: Distribution Yield – How much – and what type(s) – of distribution (aka “yield”) does the fund offer? How likely is it that the fund can maintain or increase this distribution in future? NAV Performance – How has a sector’s or individual fund’s NAV changed in the recent past? What is the outlook for future NAV trends? Valuation – Where is the current market price relative to current NAV for a fund or sector? How does this premium (or discount) to NAV compare to the past and to other fund categories? Risk – What level and type of risk is an investor bearing to earn distributions and potential capital gains? Stewardship – Does a fund have strong management? Are its management fees reasonable? Does the board have shareholder-friendly policies in place? Tradability – How readily can we take a position (long or short) in a particular fund? What are the liquidity (market cap, average daily volume) and trading costs (average spreads, short borrow fees) involved? Distribution Yield Significant distribution yields are among the top motivators for closed-end fund investors. While there are many nuances to fund distributions, including how they’re generated and how sustainable they appear to be, the top-line yield number drives much of the sentiment and investor behavior. Generally, funds within the segment offer a NAV yield* of between 6 and 10%. However, investors seeking superior yield within the this sector may give special consideration to NFJ, STK, GPM, or IRR, all of which boast distribution yields of greater than 10% of NAV. *Note that numbers quoted here are calculated as a percentage of NAV rather than market price to provide a more accurate measure of the income generated from portfolio assets. Investors holding closed-end funds at a discount to NAV will earn yields greater than the NAV yields. For instance, a fund trading at a 10% discount will have a price yield of 10/9 ths or 1.11x the NAV yield. (click to enlarge) Seasoned CEF investors know that distribution rates (often referred to as “yield”) are not all created equal. The source of distributions matters as much as the size of distributions in determining the attractiveness of the income stream generated by a given fund. In the case of covered call CEFs, return of capital (ROC) is quite common and, in our view, is usually a positive – or at least neutral – feature of a fund. Please see our previous article for further explanation. The below chart ranks each covered call fund by the estimated** effective tax rate on distributions in the past 12 months for a hypothetical taxpayer based on the allocation of each fund’s distributions to the four buckets of distributions: ROC, long-term gains, short-term gains, or income. The author is not a tax expert. This analysis is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute tax advice. It’s somewhat surprising how widely the effective tax rates vary for the funds, at least in the current period. Note that ROC distributions have the effect of lowering cost basis and thus trigger increased capital gains upon eventual sale of the fund. Certain funds, such as GNT, may have low effective tax rates in part because they have declined substantially in NAV so may be selling positions at a capital loss. However, other funds like EXG which have also eroded NAV in the past year and purport to be tax managed, had distributions taxed at effective rates of upwards of 40% in this hypothetical case. Categorization of distributions can change dramatically from year to year so do not treat this analysis as anything other than an illustration of the importance of carefully monitoring changes to the taxation status of your funds’ distributions. (click to enlarge) **This estimate assumes a California married-filing-jointly household with AGI of $400,000 with tax rates as follows: ROC is tax free (note: ROC reduces cost basis and will trigger increased taxable gains upon sale of the fund) Long-term gains are taxed at 29.1% (15% federal, 10.3% state, 3.8% NII) Short-term gains and income are taxed at 47.1% (33% federal, 10.3% state, 3.8% NII) NAV Performance Investors disagree about how to interpret recent increases in net asset value. Momentum-oriented investors may see this as a trend likely to continue while mean reversion investors may see exactly the opposite. Convergence generally views recent increases in NAV as a positive factor at both the sector and fund level because we believe that sentiment-driven fund flows tend to play out over months and quarters, not days and weeks. We also view increasing NAV as an indicator of manager skill and of protection against cuts to a fund’s distribution. Covered call funds have varied widely in the past 12 months with some funds like GNT, IRR, and BGY falling more than 15% in the past year while others like STK, FFA, and EOS have grown NAV by 5+ percent. (click to enlarge) Valuation A major reason to invest in closed-end funds rather than ETFs or traditional mutual funds is the possibility for informed investors to take advantage disconnects between fund price and fund NAV, often referred to as the fund’s premium or discount. We seek to purchase funds at sizeable discounts, and ideally at discounts beyond that which is normal relative to history and/or relative to a fund’s peers in category. Purchasing at a discount offers two attractions. First, purchasing at a discount enhances yields since an investor can own the rights to the income generated from a hypothetical $10 of net assets with only $9 of investment. Second, for investors willing to actively manage their holdings, funds purchased at particularly wide discounts can be sold at narrower discounts – or even premiums – for capital gains that enhance the total returns from a fund. Note: Convergence follows the convention of representing all premiums (price > NAV) as a positive number and all discounts (price < NAV) as a negative value. Among the funds in this sector all but two trade at discounts to NAV, and several including MSP, BOE, MCN, BDJ, BGY, and IGD, trade at double-digit discounts. It's worth noting that deep discounts have not always been the rule in this fund category, with the group in aggregate priced at a premium to NAV as recently as mid-2010. (click to enlarge) Risk There are no free lunches. Covered call CEFs offer high single-digit or even double-digit yields to investors as compensation for the various risks that investors are being asked to take. Covered call CEFs most significantly expose investors to equity market risk, measured by "beta" to the broader S&P 500 index. We believe this metric is most useful when comparing day-to-day measurements of NAV, rather than price, vs. the broader market to accurately measure how much market risk the portfolio itself is exposed to. While all funds in the category have a beta less than 1.0 (i.e., are relatively less sensitive to market volatility than an S&P 500 index fund), certain funds such as ETJ, IRR, and MSP carry beta factors below 0.7 and may be suited to investors looking to avoid equity market risk. (click to enlarge) A second type of risk to which covered call CEF investors are exposed is concentration risk , or the lack of diversification within the portfolio's holdings. To some investors, concentration in a single sector (e.g., Financials) may be a feature rather than a bug. Seligman's STK, after all, is a top performing fund in part because it's concentrated in technology stocks. However, most investors will prefer diversification to concentration. The below chart illustrates each fund's concentration of holdings in seven major sectors and ranks (from top to bottom) concentration, calculated in a manner similar to the Herfindahl Index from the field of antitrust law. Almost all funds in the category are well diversified but investors should be aware that IRR, STK, and GNT all carry specific investment mandates that must be suited to their needs and beliefs. (click to enlarge) Expenses Expense ratios are almost universally accepted as an important criteria in fund selection. However, the unique structure of closed-end funds makes the calculation of relevant expense ratios non-trivial. Convergence favors using a measure of management fees, excluding cost of leverage, as a percent of gross assets instead of the typically higher ratio that complies with "40 act" reporting requirements. In our opinion, the ability of CEFs to use leverage with borrowing costs far below what we would pay a broker is to our benefit and cost of capital borrowed for investors' benefit should not be a strike against fund managers. Further, we believe that measuring the expense ratio we pay to fund managers per dollar of portfolio assets they are managing is a more fair way of measuring value-for-money when comparing fees among CEFs or when comparing CEFs to unlevered structures like mutual funds and ETFs. All funds in this category charge fees of between 0.8% and 1.25% per annum, which we believe to be reasonable in consideration of the relatively active nature of covered call strategies. (click to enlarge) Liquidity Liquidity, or how easily an investor is able to find a willing counter-party to a buy or sell transaction, is a metric whose importance varies greatly by individual investor. On one extreme, an investor purchasing only a few hundred shares of a fund with intentions of holding for months or years should care very little about liquidity. However, investors trading in moderate to large quantities, and with intentions of medium to short holding periods, should begin to consider fund liquidity as an important hidden cost to investment. Funds including MSP and MCN are illiquid enough that even relatively modestly sized trades may represent a meaningful share of daily market volume. Investors should exercise caution with lower liquidity funds, potentially limiting total investment and scaling in/out of positions in small volumes. (click to enlarge) Conclusion As this article has outlined, there are many dimensions on which you may compare funds. However, we highlight three funds of interest based on their across-the-board attractiveness. BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Founded 10 years ago, the current management has been in place since 2010. Its portfolio of holdings can be characterized as blue chip. Recent changes in the source of distributions from ROC to income and more recently back to primarily ROC may have contributed to the discount to NAV to widen to a very attractive 12%. We believe the stewardship is strong with management fees below 1% and absence of a managed distribution policy. It offers a dividend reinvestment plan which has all dividends and distributions reinvested in shares unless otherwise directed. EV Risk-Managed Diversified Equity This fund distributes an annualized 10%+ monthly based on a NAV which is discounted nearly 12% in current trading, though recent performance has lagged behind peers. Unlike many of its peers, recent distributions have been largely characterized as income rather than ROC. It has a funds reinvestment policy that, unless the shareholder directs otherwise, all distributions will be reinvested. As is typical of the segment, it carries no leverage. Its holdings are fully invested in large US equities. AllianzGI NFJ Dividend Interest & Premium This fund seeks to pay current income while producing capital appreciation. It distributes at a rate of 11% which has recently been characterized primarily as ROC so as to minimize tax impact. It has a history of trading near NAV, making the current ~8% discount to NAV an attractive entry point. The fund is somewhat concentrated in financials (23%) and energy (14%) which may explain the recent widening of discount. Over 10% of assets are in foreign stocks. Management fees are slightly less than 1% and its historically successful portfolio managers have been in place since the fund's inception in 2005. Additional disclosure: Convergence Investment Management may recommend various securities included within this article for inclusion for individual client portfolios. These recommendations may change at any time and are specific to the individual client's objectives and risk tolerance.