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Q2 2015 U.S. Equity Fund Performance Summary

By Tom Roseen Despite hitting multiple record highs and triple-digit lows over the three months, the markets were generally in a sideways pattern during second quarter 2015. While the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ Composite managed to break into record territory in mid-June, advances to new highs were generally just at the margin. However, at June month-end concerns about the Greek debt drama, looming U.S. interest rate increases, Puerto Rico’s inability to service its public debt, and China’s recent market crash weighed heavily on investors. A positive finish for equities on the last trading day of June wasn’t enough to offset the Greek debt-inspired meltdown from the prior day, and many of the major indices witnessed their first quarterly loss in ten, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 losing 0.88% and 0.23%, respectively, for Q2, while the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.75%. However, the average equity fund (+0.09%) just managed to stay in the black for Q2, stretching the winning streak to three quarters in a row. For the quarter only 43 of Lipper’s 96 equity and mixed-equity fund classifications posted positive returns. For the second consecutive quarter Lipper’s World Equity Funds macro-classification (+1.22%) was at the top of the leader board, outpacing the other three broad equity groupings. USDE Funds (+0.03%) took the runner-up position for the quarter, followed by Mixed-Asset Funds (-0.66%) and Sector Equity Funds (-1.80%). In total, only 48% of all individual equity and mixed-asset funds posted plus-side returns for the quarter. Lipper’s preliminary Q2 2015 fund-flows numbers showed mutual fund investors were net redeemers of fund assets for the quarter, withdrawing an estimated $35.7 billion from the conventional funds business (excluding exchange-traded funds [ETFs]). During the quarter investors were net redeemers of money market funds (-$47.1 billion), equity funds (-$5.5 billion), and municipal bond funds (-$1.7 billion), but they were net purchasers of taxable fixed income funds (+$18.6 billion). In line with Q1 2015 and despite increasing geopolitical concerns, for Q2 U.S. fund investors favored nondomestic equity funds over domestic equity funds, injecting $34.5 billion versus withdrawing $40.0 billion, respectively. Nevertheless, conventional fund investors continued to show a clear preference for developed-market funds (+$33.9 billion) over emerging-market funds (+$3.4 billion) during the quarter. ETF investors (authorized participants) were net purchasers for Q2 2015, injecting $29.9 billion into equity ETFs while also being net purchasers of taxable fixed income ETFs (+$1.7 billion) and municipal debt ETFs (+$0.6 billion). The Sector Equity Funds macro-group (-1.80% [quarter] and -2.82% [June]) housed four of the five top-performing classifications in the equity universe for the quarter, but couldn’t keep itself out of the red, being once again relegated to the fourth-place spot of Lipper’s four macro-classifications. The macro-classification was dragged down by its also housing the four worst performing classifications in the universe. At the top of the list for the first quarter in 29 the Commodities Energy Funds classification (one of Q1’s laggards) returned 9.27% for the quarter and 0.40% for June. The classification benefitted from a rise in oil and gasoline prices during the quarter. The next best performing classification- Commodities Agriculture Funds (+5.28% for the quarter) benefitted from June’s rally in grain prices. Despite the on-again, off-again nature of the Greek debt drama, a volatile Chinese market, and a resurgence of news surrounding the possible default by Puerto Rico of its sovereign debt, the World Equity Funds macro-classification (+1.22%) remained at the top of the charts for the second consecutive quarter. Fund investors continued to pad the coffers of developed-market funds in our tally of estimated net flows for the quarter, but they also injected net new money into emerging markets-related funds. Despite its late-month meltdown in June, China Region Funds (+7.64%)-for the second quarter in three-outpaced the other classifications in the group for the quarter, followed by Japanese Funds (+3.95%),International Small-/Mid-Cap Growth Funds (+3.91%), and International Small-/Mid-Cap Core Funds (+3.82%). Japanese Funds got a boost from export-related stocks after the yen showed continued weakness against the greenback. India-related securities suffered from volatility at the beginning of June after the Reserve Bank of India revised its inflation forecast higher, pushing India Region Funds (-3.58%) to the bottom of the macro-classification for the first quarter in eight.

Time To (Re)Focus On AllianzGI’s Convertible/Income Bond Fund

Summary For the first time in three years, NCV has traded at a discount to trading price, and this prompted the need for a review of the fund. Since my last NCV/NCZ primer (NCZ/NCV Primer), both NCV/NCZ have maintained their monthly distributions and investors have collected approximately 18% in dividend income. NCV remains a great investment vehicle for yield hungry investors with a healthy debt maturity and sector mix. The markets have been nothing close to stable for the last few weeks and this has led to the broader investment community to lose focus on their investment objectives and strategies (I mean both retail and institutional investors). For the first time in three years, the AllianzGI Convertible & Income Fund (NYSE: NCV ) has traded at a discount to trading price, and this prompted the need for a review of the fund. First off, this isn’t the first time it has happened (the price to trade below the net asset value). NCV has dipped below it’s net asset value several times historically in similar fashions – generally in response to drastic market events (in this case it’s Greece’s and Puerto Rico’s debt default scares). When the markets edge lower, like they have in the last three weeks, and many investment vehicles are impacted due to this concern, I refer to it as ” headline risk ” and without a question, the current headline risk with Greece is not good, but it isn’t going to be THAT bad for the global economy. Investors should remember/realize what exactly is at play here. In this case, it is a country defaulting/postponing/determining how to payoff debt to an entity that is unlevered and does not contain counter party risk (IMF, Germany, European Union, all other creditors). Investors, and the rest of the investment community, should realize that Greece’s headline risk is fairly isolated from investment vehicles like NCV (and the AllianzGI Convertible Fund II (NYSE: NCZ )), which trade and are meant to be benchmarked against convertible bond indices. Therefore, I felt it is time to refocus closed end fund investors back on to NCV, where global macro headline risk should not dictate the performance of convertible funds of U.S. denominated equities. Since my last NCV/NCZ primer ( NCZ/NCV Primer ), both NCV/NCZ have maintained their monthly distributions and investors have collected approximately 18% in dividend income and have been able to book 22% of returns assuming dividends were reinvested. To review the fund’s strategy, NCV invests in short to medium term convertible bonds of companies based in the United States mainly and they achieve a 12% distribution rate by levering their assets by around 33% at all times to benefit from the increased investment, and generate the high monthly distributions of approximately 13% (based on recent price levels). NCV achieves these returns in two main forms: Direct investment into convertible debt via underwritings and secondary market trading. Intra-day trading based on market opportunities to capture mispriced debt events. The downside of NCV’s strategy is that it can face liquidity constraints for some of its debt and may take on the wrong positions which will impact NAV, but difficult to compute on the market price front, making the performance of the current investments fairly difficult to transcribe. NCV Market Price vs. Net Asset Value Price Chart – NCV trades at a healthy premium to the funds net asset value price and for the right reasons… Yield demand. Source: Morningstar As shown above, NCV has consistently traded above its Net Asset Value, and this is largely due to the fact that NCV pays out a substantial dividend compared to other closed end funds. Since NCV consistently yields a monthly 12% (13% at current trading prices), investors made up of both retail and institutional distinctions have found that a 12% distribution rate is very attractive considering it can be a long term investment and executed by a reputable investment manager, Allianz. Investors do not mind paying a slight premium on the fund for the return of an above average distribution rate. NCV Annual Returns vs. Convertible Bond Benchmarks – NCV sell-off is a market overreaction (click to enlarge) Source: Morningstar Above, NCV’s trading price is compared to its convertible benchmark and based on the above chart, YTD 2015 is one of the first times where you see a divergence of NCV’s share price vs. convertible benchmark prices, outlining this investment opportunity. Generally, NCV has been able to beat this index by maintaining an active investment portfolio of convertible debt, granting positioning options the convertible bond index does not benefit from (since it is a passively tracked index). NCV Asset Allocation – The majority of the assets are in Convertible debt, which is concentrated in the United States and far from Europe Source: Morningstar To highlight why I wanted to publish this article, above is a pie chart of NCV’s asset allocation, of which is made up of 75%+ U.S. denominated debt and far from European risk. Just for clarification, the above chart is from Morningstar.com and Morningstar’s asset allocation for closed end funds is automated, confusing investors slightly since convertible debt can be identified as either “bonds” or “other” for various securities. In this case, the bonds and other categories are the convertible debt categories. NCV Bond Maturity Breakdown – With medium-term debt making up the majority of the investment portfolio, AllianzGI portfolio managers can maintain the portfolio mix for long-term investors… (click to enlarge) Source: Morningstar NCV Distributions – Investors should not see the distribution mix change, with focus to remain in distributing income to investors long term. Source: Morningstar Finally, I wanted to highlight several other factors that can help investors refocus on NCV. First, the income distributions are almost completely made up of convertible debt income funds and therefore gives investors the stability of payments since the bulk of the payouts are not driven by intra-day trading bets/performance/strategies, unlike other closed end funds. Second, the recent market price drop can be tied to the headline risk I mentioned/discussed earlier and the fact that NCV holds a portion of U.S. stock holdings in its portfolio, capturing some of the downside that the broader markets have locked onto. Third, investors who originally invested in NCV remain yield hungry and the closed end fund substitutions aren’t really here (there are only a few closed end funds that focus on convertible bonds and simultaneously yield 12% to investors). In my view, the price drop will be corrected back upward after investors have had time to digest the headline risk from Europe and broader market underperformance. NCV remains a great investment vehicle for yield hungry investors with a healthy debt maturity and sector mix, and investors should not mistaken the recent global economic issues with a closed end fund investing in convertible bonds. Disclosure: I am/we are long NCV, NCZ. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Flurry Of New Currency Hedged ETFs Fuels Price War

Currency hedging ETFs have been in vogue this year, given the ultra-loose monetary policy across the globe and a strong U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies. The bullish trend in the dollar is likely to continue, as the Fed is primed to increase interest rates for the first time since 2006 later this year as the U.S. economy roars back to life. While cheap money flows are making international investment a compelling opportunity for U.S. investors this year, a strong dollar could wipe out the gains when repatriated in U.S. dollar terms, pushing international investment into the red, in spite of well-performing stocks. As a result, investors are flocking to currency-hedged ETFs. This has a double benefit. While these ETFs tap bullish international fundamentals, they dodge the effect of a strong greenback. So far, WisdomTree Investments (NASDAQ: WETF ) has been clearly leading the space with the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: HEDJ ) and the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DXJ ) having AUM of $20.7 billion and $18.7 billion, respectively, thanks to the first-mover advantage, liquidity, price and brand name. However, its dominance now seems to be challenged by a flurry of new currency-hedged ETFs that have fueled a price war in the space. This is especially true as some issuers such as PowerShares, ProShares, State Street (NYSE: STT ) and iShares have come up with low-cost products in recent months that are much cheaper than those offered by WisdomTree. These could provide stiff competition to the established ETFs in the space, dulling their appeal. Here, we have highlighted some of the low-cost currency-hedged ETFs, all launched on the market in the past couple of months. ProShares Hedged FTSE Japan ETF (HGJP) This ETF provides exposure to the Japanese equity market with no currency risk by tracking the FTSE Japan 100% Hedged to USD Index. It charges just 0.23% in annual fees, which is half the expense ratio for a similar exposure provided by other products. Expense ratios for the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBJP ), the iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: HEWJ ) and DXJ are 0.45%, 0.48% and 0.48%, respectively. ProShares Hedged FTSE Europe ETF (HGEU) This fund targets the European market and provides a hedge against six major European currencies. It follows the FTSE Developed Europe 100% Hedged to USD Index, charging investors 0.27%. Here again, the expense ratio of HGEU is half compared to that of 0.45% for the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Europe Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBEU ), 0.51% for the iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEARCA: HEZU ) and 0.58% for the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF ( HEDJ ). PowerShares Europe Currency Hedged Low Volatility Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: FXEU ) This ETF offers new ways to gain exposure to European stocks, and is perhaps the first product providing two popular ETF investing strategies – low volatility and currency hedging – at the same time. Despite the fact that its unique features and combo offer what the others lack, FXEU charges a low expense ratio of 0.25%. SPDR EURO STOXX 50 Currency Hedged ETF (NYSEARCA: HFEZ ) This ETF looks to track the performance of the EURO STOXX 50 Hedged USD Index. It is basically a holding of the SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF (NYSEARCA: FEZ ), with currency hedge tacked onto it. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.32%, which is lower than that of many other products in the European currency-hedged space. iShares Currency Hedged MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (NYSEARCA: HAWX ) This fund offers exposure to stocks in the developed (excluding the U.S.) and emerging markets by tracking the MSCI ACWI ex USA 100% Hedged to USD Index, while at the same time providing a hedge against any fall in the currencies of the specified nation. It is basically a holding of its unhedged version, the iShares MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Index ETF (NASDAQ: ACWX ), with currency hedge tacked onto it. The product charges 0.36%, which is cheaper by 4 bps compared to the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI All World ex US Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBAW ) providing a similar exposure in the space. Given the lower expense ratios, these ETFs could see solid asset flows in the coming months if they succeed in outperforming or at least remain on par with the others in the space. The trends too should continue to favor international investing. Original Post