Tag Archives: energy

Duke Energy: A Utility Stock For Your Income Portfolio For 2015

Summary Company’s long-term performance will be positively affected by planned growth investments. Growth investments will drive its rate base and earnings growth in the long run. DUK remains committed to achieving its targeted dividend payout ratio of 65%-70%. I reiterate my bullish stance on Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK ). In this article, I will discuss in more detail the ongoing capital expenditures that the company is making, which will portend well for its financial performance. Also, I will briefly discuss the 4Q’14 earnings outlook. DUK has been progressing well with its healthy capital expenditures in regulated operations. The company’s planned capital expenditures for the next five years remain healthy, and I believe DUK will deliver decent earnings growth in the long run. Moreover, the effect of the healthy earnings growth will improve its cash flow base, due to which the company will make hefty dividend payments in the long run. The stock offers an attractive dividend yield of 3.6%, which makes it a good investment option for dividend-seeking investors. Smart Growth Investments set to Improve DUK’s Financial Performance U.S. utility stocks delivered healthy performances in 2014. Moving forward, I believe 2015 will be another good year for the utility sector. As far as DUK is concerned, the company has carved out its plans to deliver a healthy performance in the long term through acceleration in capital expenditure for long-term growth generating projects. As per its growth plans, focused on regulated operations, the company is planning to spend approximately $16-$20 billion on several growth projects from 2014 to 2018, focused on its new power generation projects. The company revealed that it will be constructing three major generation projects in Florida, with an investment of approximately $1.9 billion . Also, DUK is planning to build a 1,640MW joint cycle plant worth $1.5 billion. In addition, the company has been making progress with its two new combustion turbine plants in Suwannee, which are expected to be in service by the end of 2018. Moreover, regulators have approved DUK’s project to build a 750MW Lee natural gas plant in South Carolina, which will start providing services by the end of 2017. The value of these growth investments lies in the betterment of the company’s power generation capacity due to a significant improvement in regulated operations, which will portend well for its rate base and earnings growth in the long run. Along with power generation projects, DUK has been gradually increasing its renewable energy portfolio. So far, the company is progressing well with the constructions of its 400MW wind energy project and 100MW solar project. DUK has recently acquired a 20MW solar project from Geenex and ET solar Energy Corporation; the project’s site, being located in Dominion North Carolina Power’s service area, will allow the company to generate revenue by selling electricity generated from the project for a period of 15 years. In future, DUK will be making more investments in its renewable generation projects. All these renewable energy generation investments will not only diversify the company’s generation mix, but will help it meet environmental standards. I believe DUK’s increased focus on renewable energy sources will deliver a significant upside to the company’s financial performance in the long run. In addition, DUK is actively evaluating all growth opportunities in international markets to generate growth in the long run. Also, DUK is conducting a strategic examination of international operations to get tax benefits of approximately $1.7 billion . The company’s strategic overview of international operations is still in progress, but by the time DUK will start pursuing tax saving initiatives for its international operations, its stock price will be positively affected. Owing to DUK’s healthy capital expenditures for the next five years, active investments in renewable energy resources and international growth opportunities, I believe the company’s earnings will be positively affected in the long term. Analysts are expecting that DUK’s long-term earnings will grow at approximately 4.76% , better than Southern Company’s (NYSE: SO ) earnings growth of 3.63% . The company is scheduled to report its 4Q’14 earnings next month. The company will provide an update on its future capital expenditure outlook; any increases in planned capital expenditures will positively affect the company’s growth potential and stock price. Also, the company will provide the 1Q’15 and full year 2015 earnings guidance. Analysts are expecting DUK to report an EPS of $0.88 for 4Q’14. In the last four quarters, the company reported three earnings beats. The one earnings miss was due to an impairment charge related to Midwest assets. I believe that as the company has finalized the sale of Midwest assets, it will report strong earnings for 4Q’15. The following table shows the actual EPS and consensus EPS estimates for the last four quarters. (click to enlarge) Source: Yahoofinance.com Healthy Returns DUK has been sharing its success with shareholders through dividends. The company recently announced a quarterly dividend payment of $0.795 , which marked its 85th consecutive year of dividend payments. The company currently offers a healthy dividend yield of 3.60% . The company’s impressive cash flows have been backing these impressive dividend payments, as shown below. DUK’s healthy growth prospects indicate that its cash flow productivity will improve in the years ahead, helping it affirm its commitment to rewarding shareholders through dividend payments. Owing to its ability to pay dividends consistently in upcoming years, I believe DUK remains a good investment option for shareholders. Moreover, the company can use $2.8 billion in cash proceeds from the Midwest assets sale to repurchase shares or boost dividends. Owing to DUK’s shareholder-friendly cash return policy, I believe the company will utilize all growth prospects that could support its healthy cash return policy in order to ensure consistent dividend increases in the years ahead. The following table shows the ongoing increases in dividend per share, ROE, dividend payout ratio and dividend coverage for the company, for 2012 and 2013. The table also includes my estimated figures for 2014 and 2015. (Note *Dividend Coverage Ratio = Operating Cash Flow/Annual Dividends) Dividend Per Share Dividend Payout Dividend Coverage ROE 2012 $3.03 70% 3x 9.5% 2013 $3.12 71.7% 2.9x 6.3% 2014(E) $3.15 69.6% 3.2x 7.6% 2015(E) $3.25 68.7% 3.8x 7.7% Source: Company’s Reports and Equity watch’s Calculations Using Estimates Conclusion DUK’s long-term performance will be positively affected by planned growth investments. The growth investments, directed at improving the company’s operational performance, will drive its rate base and earnings growth in the long run. Also, DUK’s healthy growth prospects will portend well for the betterment of its cash flow base, which will allow the company to consistently increase dividends. Moreover, DUK remains committed to achieving its targeted dividend payout ratio of 65%-70% . Due to the aforementioned factors, I remain bullish on DUK.

Which Are The Green Alternative Energy Mutual Funds?

Summary There is a wide range of how focused the different green mutual funds are on alternative energy. Some stocks that a mutual fund may hold are easy to classify as alternative energy companies, others are not. Mutual Funds with the greatest alternative energy focus are ALTEX, NALFX and GAAEX. Not all alternative energy mutual funds are created equal. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal , a reporter asked me which alternative energy mutual funds were the most focused on renewables, noting that many mutual funds hold non-energy related companies such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP ) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ). The answer to this question is not as straight forward as one might think. This article sorts out which mutual funds are truly invested in the dynamic and growing green energy sector, and which ones are more peripheral. Greener Than Thou-Revealing How Much a Mutual Fund is Focused on Alternative Energy Despite the desire of many investors to keep their portfolios clean of polluting investments, there is no perfectly pure alternative energy mutual fund. There is, however, a wide range of how focused the different green mutual funds are on alternative energy. Finding out which mutual funds have the highest concentration of alternative energy investments takes a multipronged approach. First, the Roen Financial Report scrutinizes the prospectus of each fund to see if its principles align with alternative energy investment goals. Second, for each company that the mutual fund holds, the annual report and financial filings are thoroughly examined to determine exactly how much of a company’s operations are related to the various green sectors that the Roen Financial Report covers – energy efficiency, environmental * , fuel alternatives, smart grid, solar and wind. Sometimes it is easy to tell whether a mutual fund holds stocks that are in one or more of the alternative energy sectors, but in other cases it is not so obvious. Clearly, pure play companies like First Solar, Inc (NASDAQ: FSLR ), Renewable Energy Group Inc (NASDAQ: REGI ) and SolarCity Corp (NASDAQ: SCTY ) are stocks that alternative energy investors are seeking. There are other companies, though, that have alternative energy products and services as part of their business model, but those operations are not the company’s bread-and-butter. For example, Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI ) is a large industrial conglomerate that has two business units which address alternative energy themes -building efficiency and renewable power solutions. I estimate that alternative energy accounts for perhaps half of JCI’s revenues. Interestingly, shares of JCI are owned by 8 out of 12 alternative energy mutual funds, more than any other single company. Another example of a company with partial alternative energy operations is Valmont Industries (NYSE: VMI ). Valmont manufactures support towers for wind turbines, anemometers, power line transmission, mass transit poles, lighting and related structures. This company cannot be ignored-its contribution is critical to the infrastructure needed to support utility-scale solar, wind and smart grid projects that will continue to be built over the coming decades. However, my analysis attributes an estimated 15% of Valmont’s current earnings are a result of alternative energy projects. Google is another company that blurs into alternative energy, though it is obviously not its main business. Google realizes that it is basically an electricity-based service-no electricity, no Google. Because of this, Google has made a significant commitment to moving toward a more clean and sustainable electric supply. Google has moved on this in no small way, having invested in over $1.5 billion in wind and solar projects . In order to simplify the analysis of how much of a stocks business relates to alternative energy, only the stocks needed to reach at least 50% of a fund’s weighted holdings were included (or at a minimum, the fund’s top 10 holdings). Also, two mutual funds that the Roen Financial Report tracks were left out of the rating system, Allianz RCM Global Water A (MUTF: AWTAX ) and Calvert Green Bond A (MUTF: CGAFX ). AWATX invests in stocks and securities engaged in water-related activities, a sector related to green energy but with more of an environmental focus. Calvert Green Bond is another good choice for green investors, but is a different kind of animal than a stock fund, so it is hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison. Its prospectus states that investments include: …securities of companies that develop or provide products or services that address environmental solutions and/or support efforts to reduce their own environmental footprint; bonds that support environmental projects; structured securities that are collateralized by assets supporting environmental themes; and securities that, in the opinion of the Fund’s Advisor, have no more than a negligible direct environmental impact, which may include securities issued by the U.S. government or its agencies, and U.S. government-sponsored entities. The Greenest Alternative Energy Mutual Funds (click to enlarge) Three funds clearly top the list of having the greatest alternative energy focus: Firsthand Alternative Energy (MUTF: ALTEX ), New Alternatives (MUTF: NALFX ) and Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy (MUTF: GAAEX ). These funds have a high concentration of alternative energy investments, and strongly focused investment principles. Firsthand Alternative Energy Five of Firsthand Alternative Energy’s top 10 weighted holdings are pure play companies such as First Solar , Sun Power (NASDAQ: SPWR ) and Solar City . Firsthand Alternative Energy is very specific in their prospectus, stating that they: …invest at least 80% of the Fund’s assets in alternative energy and alternative energy technology companies, both U.S. and international. Alternative energy currently includes energy generated through solar, hydrogen, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, tidal, biofuel, and biomass. Alternative energy technologies currently include, but are not limited to, technologies that enable energies to be tapped, stored, or transported, such as fuel cells; services or technologies that conserve or enable more efficient utilization of energy; and technologies that help minimize harmful emissions from existing energy sources, such as helping reduce carbon emissions. It is important to note that ALTEX is the smallest of all alternative energy funds that the Roen Financial Report tracks, and we give this fund a low overall investment rank. New Alternatives New Alternatives Fund also has a very good concentration of alternative energy investments. The top six of its holdings are 100% pure play alternative energy companies. Additionally, the top 50% of its weighted portfolio is estimated to be over 75% involved in alternative energy. The investment objective of the fund is not the strongest of all alternative energy funds, but it is very specific: At least 25% of the Fund’s total assets will be invested in equity securities of companies in the alternative energy industry. ‘Alternative Energy’ means the production and conservation of energy in a manner that reduces pollution and harm to the environment, particularly when compared to conventional coal, oil or nuclear energy… The Advisor also considers the perceived prospects for the company and its industry, with concern for economic, political and social conditions at the time. In addition the Advisor considers its expectations for the investment based on, among other things, the company’s technological and management strength. Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy GAAEX has a very strong concentration of alternative energy companies in its portfolio. When looking at the top two-thirds of its holdings, about 90% of those investments are involved in green energy production. Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy also has one of the tightest investment principles guiding the fund: The Alternative Energy Fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in equity securities of alternative energy companies (both U.S. and non-U.S.). Alternative energy companies include, but are not limited to companies that generate power through solar, wind, hydroelectric, tidal wave, geothermal, biomass or biofuels and the various companies that provide the equipment and technologies that enable these sources to be tapped, used, stored or transported, including companies that create, facilitate or improve technologies that conserve or enable more efficient use of energy. Mutual Funds With a Lesser Alternative Energy Focus Funds that the Roen Financial Report rate as having the least alternative energy stocks are Gabelli SRI Green AAA (MUTF: SRIGX ), Portfolio 21 R (MUTF: PORTX ) and Green Century Balanced Fund (MUTF: GCBLX ). Gabelli SRI AAA Prior to last year, Gabelli SRI AAA had more of an alternative energy focus (its previous name was The Gabelli SRI Green Fund), but is now a social screened fund. It does, however, include some alternative energy holdings, such as JCI and VMI. Its investment objectives show that SRIGX has more of an exclusionary screen than a proactive green energy focus: Pursuant to the guidelines, the Fund will not invest in the top 50 defense/weapons contractors or in companies that derive more than 5% of their revenues from the following areas: tobacco, alcohol, gaming, defense/weapons production, and companies involved in the manufacture of abortion related products. Portfolio 21 R PORTX is an environmentally focused fund, which also has a broader social charge. Fewer than expected of its holdings, though, have an alternative energy focus. Only about one-third of its portfolio comprises companies that have a hand in alternative energy sectors. Its prospectus states that: The Advisor believes that the best long-term investments are found in companies with above-average financial characteristics and growth potential that also excel at managing environmental risks and opportunities and societal impact… The Advisor considers a company’s position on various factors such as ecological limits, environmental stewardship, environmental strategies, stance on human rights and equality, societal impact as well as its corporate governance practices. Green Century Balanced Fund Green Century Balanced is a mutual fund that invests in environmentally responsible and sustainable companies, and those not directly in the fossil fuel business. Even though its prospectus is very specific about including companies that have environmental goods and services, very few of the top weighted stocks in its portfolio work in green energy. Instead, many of its top holdings are in technology, health care and financial services. Despite this fact, GCBLX does have a detailed and relevant investment objective: The Fund invests primarily in the stocks and bonds of environmentally responsible and sustainable U.S. companies…whose primary business involves the provision of an environmentally sound good or service, such as appropriate technology for sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, energy efficiency, water treatment and conservation, air pollution control, pollution prevention, recycling technologies, or other effective remedies for existing environmental problems. The Fund also invests in companies whose primary business is not solving environmental problems but which conduct their business in an environmentally responsible manner. Such companies are evaluated on a range of criteria that includes, but is not necessarily limited to, an assessment of each company’s: Environmental performance indicators such as its consumption of natural resources, energy usage, greenhouse gas emissions, toxic emissions, use of toxic chemicals, and solid waste generation; Pollution prevention programs and supply chain environmental policies; Compliance with environmental laws and regulations and its potential environmental liabilities; Environmental management infrastructure and governance procedures; Public reporting on an annual basis of its environmental performance… The Balanced Fund does not intend to invest in companies engaged in the extraction, exploration, production, manufacturing or refining of fossil fuels… Summary My analysis clearly shows that there is a wide range in how committed an alternative energy mutual fund may be in its investments. There is a big difference in the holdings of funds like Firsthand Alternative Energy and New Alternatives compared to Green Century. This information should help guide investors interested in green energy mutual funds to help them know what these funds may or may not be holding. * Though not directly involved in alternative energy, environmental stocks include those in the business of recycling, pollution control, clean water supply and related sectors. While their business is related to the goals of alternative energy by reducing pollution and creating a cleaner planet, it is not as directly related as companies in the energy sector. So for the purposes of this analysis, the factor that environmental companies contribute to a mutual fund’s alternative energy focus was reduced. In other words, a water service company like Xylem Inc (NYSE: XYL ) rates lower than a solar panel manufacturer like Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL ).

Tax-Loss Harvest Swap – A Prudent Move For Energy Investors

Summary In this article, we will discuss a popular tax strategy called a “loss-harvest swap”. This is effectively a legal version of the SEC-outlawed “wash-sale”. This is particularly relevant for investors with current unrealized losses in energy companies. A tax-loss harvest swap works well in times of indiscriminate selling within a sector, such as the recent selloff in oil. Whenever there are substantially alike securities to “swap” one position for another, this strategy can work well. The strategy also works well (better in fact) with ETFs. Loss-Harvest Swap Example Take this example portfolio. You’ll see we have some unrealized losses in Ultra Petroleum, a small-cap E&P company. Since the broad selloff in energy, many small-cap E&Ps have gone on sale. There are several which have fallen more than UPL and which we wouldn’t mind owning instead of it now. Say our swap of choice is SWN , a larger E&P trading at a similar valuation of 3.5x trailing cash flow, and more stable long-term Marcellus acreage. The stock has fallen 39% over the past year, compared to UPL’s 35%. A loss-harvest swap calls for a sale of UPL and a buy of SWN. From a portfolio standpoint, my risk / reward would be basically unchanged – I am still long a small-cap E&P company that is substanitally correlated to the sector. I might eventually end up with more gains from SWN than UPL, or less – that is a risk. But, I also generate some immediate & guarranteed tax benefits. Tax Savings The exact amount of the tax savings depends on your tax bracket: The savings vary, but the point is that these tax savings were obtained without much risk, and are essentially free money. If you have some short term capital gains, this is pure gold. Also, if your realized losses exceed your realized gains for the year, one can use $3000 of the losses to reduce one’s taxable income, and carry over the rest to next year. How Often to Harvest Losses Tax-loss harvesting is a strategy that can be used fairly often. Taking trading commissions into account as a cost, and leaving some margin for error for divergence between your swapped securities’ returns (don’t want inadvertently destroy alpha by buying an inferior name), you could easily make the case for an automatic swap at set thresholds (for example- harvest at every 5% loss). As such, you could benefit from even minor market volatility after you buy– and lock in a lower cost basis. However, swapping more often will generate trading costs, so I recommend using a discounted broker such as Interactive Brokers or Optionshouse (these are two I have used in the past). Also, keep in mind tax strategy is not a substitute for a good investment strategy – make sure you have the latter in place first. For a stock or sector that keeps falling, using 2 substantially-alike securites, one can swap one for the other once every 31 days and still remain in the clear with respect to the SEC’s wash sale rules. Using 3 alike securities, such as 3 ETFs which track the same index (yes, that is still allowable under SEC wash sale rules), one could swap more often than that, one just cannot swap the same security in 31 days.