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Northwestern Corporation: Great Business Fundamentals

Summary Montana has a healthy, stable population that pays its utility bills. Hydroelectric generation acquisition changed the company for the better. The acquisition did increase leverage. Debt is manageable, but free cash flow should go to paying down debt. NorthWestern Corporation (NYSE: NWE ) is an electricity and natural gas provider that serves the energy needs of hundreds of thousands of customers in Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Unlike many utilities that have diversified into non-regulated activities, NorthWestern remains a pure-play regulated utility. Management has been wise, making strong moves to diversify away from coal-fired generation in a bid to lower regulatory risk. In turn, investors have rewarded this move, with shares returning roughly double the return of the broader utility index since the September 2013 announcement of the purchase. Will this long-term outperformance continue? Renewable Energy Diversification Those that have followed my work know that I have been especially critical of utilities that have not begun to meaningfully diversify away from coal, shifting power generation into cleaner plays such as natural gas and hydroelectric generation. Coal will continue to play an important, but shrinking, role for most utilities in providing stable energy generation for some time. We all know that sometimes the wind doesn’t blow or the water doesn’t run. But its days of dominance are numbered and utilities must position themselves for a future where coal is not the primary source of power generation, primarily due to continued pressure from environmental regulation. From what I’ve found, utilities in the Midwest have been especially guilty of ignoring renewables. NorthWestern Corporation, operating right next door to many of these slow-to-adapt utilities, has not been ignoring industry trends. The $900M acquisition of eleven hydroelectric facilities from PPL Montana was a game-changer for the company, shifting more than 50% of available base-load generation to renewable water and wind. Hydroelectric is a great source of power for utilities to meet light-load requirements on most operational days. There is no fuel cost to worry about, which reduces operational headaches, and the assets are obviously quite clean when it comes to greenhouse gas production and waste. Best of all, NorthWestern got these facilities for a steal of a price. Montana In Focus The vast majority of NorthWestern’s earnings comes from its Montana operations. When you think of Montana, you probably think of something like this: ‘ * Wildnatureimages.com This honestly isn’t too far from the case. Montana is a vast state, with low population density and a high concentration of people over the age of 65. However, this doesn’t make it a poor market for a utility. The unemployment rate has remained under the U.S. national average for many years (currently at an incredibly low 4.0%), and population growth remains stable. * NorthWestern Energy Investor Presentation Along with this, bad debt write-offs for NorthWestern are incredibly low, even during the recession where you would expect a jump in defaults. With more than 80% of Montana revenue coming from residential customers, low unemployment and bad debt write-offs creates a situation of high stability and predictability when it comes to company earnings. For utility owners, this should be far more important than chasing growth potential. Steady as she goes is the name of the game. Operating Results (click to enlarge) Electric operations revenue growth has accelerated, especially for full-year 2015, due to approval of increased rates related to the hydroelectric acquisitions that have come into effect. Gas operations revenue has fallen, but like with all natural gas utilities, this is a function of the underlying commodity price rather than a lack of demand. As natural gas prices have fallen, the cost of gas passed along to consumers as part of rider agreements falls as well, resulting in lower revenue. Investors should remember, however, that NorthWestern’s fixed margin per unit of gas sold remains the same. Lower gas prices mean higher gross and operating margins for the natural gas division, which we can see coming down in 2015’s estimated full-year results. (click to enlarge) As I usually do with utilities, I look to see that operational cash flow can cover capital expenditure requirements and dividend payments. If not, the utility is likely stuck in a cycle of taking on debt to cover its obligations. For NorthWestern, total cash flow from operations will grow greatly in 2015, eliminating some of the slightly larger deficits we saw in 2013 and 2014, likely a result of larger capex requirements for its new hydroelectric facilities. Overall, leverage for NorthWestern has gone up as a result of its hydroelectric and wind acquisitions, which cost a touch over $1B. Total long-term debt now stands at $1.8B, putting its net debt/EBITDA ratio at around 4.5x, which is on the high side but manageable for the time being. Management here has been traditionally cautious – all of NorthWestern’s debt is non-callable, long-term fixed rate debt. The company does have $455M of debt coming due by 2019 ($150M 2016, $55M 2018, $250M 2019), which it will have to refinance. I’d expect this to price around 4.5% on mid-term extensions (coming due in 2030) which will actually reduce the company’s interest expense somewhat given the 6%+ coupons these issuances have carried. Conclusion Overall, NorthWestern is a well-run utility. Management seems to be taking all the right steps and the 3.75% annual dividend yield is solid. 12.5x ttm EV/EBITDA is on the high side, but the company likely carries a premium given the strong growth performance and future earnings profile. I wouldn’t be a buyer at current prices, but I’m keeping the shares on my watchlist.

VWEHX: Giving You High Yields Since The ’70s

Summary High-yield bond fund that has shown good returns over the last decade. Junk bonds are in the top end of credit quality. Option to help with reducing risk and volatility in a portfolio. Mutual funds are a great way to improve risk adjusted returns for investors. There are many options when looking for high yield investments and recently I have been looking at high-yield bond funds. Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares (MUTF: VWEHX ) holds high rated “junk bonds” and aims for investors who are looking for consistent income. Since inception in 1978 the fund has had an average annual return of 8.48%. With how well the bonds are chosen and a high yield, this fund has the potential to fit into many portfolios. While it may not beat the market in overall return, there is going to be less risk and volatility to worry about. Expense Ratio The expense ratio is .23% for the minimum investment. This is a surprisingly low expense ratio for an actively managed fund seeking high-yield bonds. There is a minimum investment of $3,000 to invest in this mutual fund. The Lipper peer average expense ratio was 1.11% as of 12/31/2014. The management team had a turnover rate of 34.7% the last fiscal year and has performed well compared to similar funds. Yield VWEHX has a distribution yield of 5.58%, which is great for more current income in a portfolio. The combination of a high yield and a low expense ratio make this fund a definite option. While this fund is correlated on a short term basis to stocks, the high yield needs to be taken into consideration. During an extended down period for the market this high yield is going to greatly reduce the overall loss. However, when we are in a bull market a bond fund is not going to see a lot of growth. Here’s a comparison to the S&P: Even though you can definitely see the correlation, there is a massive difference in volatility. Over a long period of time VWEHX has performed very well on a returns basis because of the high yield. Because of how this fund functions, I wouldn’t have it in my portfolio unless I had a good utilization for the yield. Diversification Here’s a graph showing bond sector allocation: Along with 402 holdings, VWEHX has broad diversification. All the different sector and company exposure is a good first step in protecting against risk. Among the 402 holdings, there is a good balance of diversity without investing too much in a few companies. There is only one holding with over 1% and quickly shifts to the tenth being at .80%: On top of being well diversified, the management has shown over decades their process to choose bonds has worked. The fund uses a fundamental process when looking at credit quality. With how the bonds are chosen there is generally a higher credit quality and less volatility than competitors. The average annual returns over the past ten years has been 6.56% and over five years has been 6.33%. This has been a top performing high yield bond fund since its inception and continues to perform. I normally wouldn’t pay attention to one-year periods, but it makes a point of how this fund does during a bump. Over the last year the fund has had an annual return of .91%, which is in the top 10% for funds in this category. VWEHX’s high yield has saved the day again here. An interesting point to look at this fund is the yield and performance while selecting high-quality junk bonds as shown in the following chart: 90% of the holdings are B3 or above. Management has stated that they will never have more than 10% of the holdings below B quality. Over 85% is in the top end of non-investment grade bonds. There has been some speculation as to how management finds bonds, which can be found here . Whatever exact strategy is used, Wellington Management has done a good job choosing investments for this mutual fund. Conclusion VWEHX is broadly diversified and has had a high sustainable current income. VWEHX has higher credit quality bonds compared to the others junk bond funds. Management has used a credit selection process, which has shown a lower return volatility compared to competitors. High-yield bond funds will have a correlation to the market, but the lower risk and high income coming in from a high yield will get rid of massive bumps in volatility. I would want this fund around 5%-10% of my heavily indexed portfolio to help with income and reduce overall volatility.