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Companhia Paranaense de Energia’s (ELP) CEO Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna on Q3 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) (NYSE: ELP ) Q3 2015 Earnings Conference Call November 12, 2015 12:00 pm ET Executives Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna – CEO Luiz Eduardo da Veiga Sebastiani – CFO & IR Officer Gilberto Mendes Fernandes – Business Management Director Sergio Luiz Lamy – CEO, Copel G&T Ricardo Goldani Dosso – CEO, Copel Renováveis Acacio Massato Nakayama – Assistant Director, Copel Distribuição Adriano Fedalto – Accounting Superintendent Analysts Carolina Carneiro – Banco Santander Lilyanna Yang – UBS Operator Good afternoon and thank you for waiting. Welcome to the Earnings Call for Companhia Paranaense de Energia Copel to discuss the results of the Third Quarter of 2015. All participants are in listen-only mode during the company’s presentation. And later, we’ll have an Q&A session, when further instructions will be provided. [Operator Instructions]. Before proceeding, we should mention that forward-looking statements that might be made during this conference call related to Copel’s business outlook, projections, operating and financial projections are based on beliefs and assumptions of the company’s management as well as on information currently available. Forward-looking statements are no guarantee of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and, therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors may also affect the future results of Copel, and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. With us today in the conference call we have Mr. Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna, CEO of the company; Mr. Luiz Eduardo da Veiga Sebastiani, CFO and IR Officer; Gilberto Mendes Fernandes, Business Management Director; Mr. Sergio Luiz Lamy, CEO of Copel G&T; Mr. Ricardo Goldani Dosso, CEO of Copel Renováveis; and Acacio Massato Nakayama, Assistant Director of Copel Distribuição. The presentation will be delivered by Copel’s management, and can be followed on the company’s website www.copel.com/ir. Now, I will turn the conference to Mr. Luiz Fernando Vianna, CEO of the company. Please Mr. Luiz Fernando. Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna Good afternoon. Welcome to the conference call for the 3Q ’15 earnings. Events which are considered to be very important to discuss about our company and also about some perspective of the sector, I remember that in our prior opportunity to talk, we were close to have the Provisional Measure 68 disclosed and it has been published mid-August. It brought important change in the rules for the power plant auctions that it had expired contracts and also the perspective of other GSF restructuring. Since then the discussion is about the provisional measure and its consequences really have taken us a lot of our time. About the restructuring of the GSF, we have discussed a lot on this matter internally and we have participated actively in tutorial discussions all aiming the best scenario for the company. From the beginning of November and now by the means of the technical standards of 238/2015 has presented the conditions for the restructuring. Right now we are concentrated in the analysis of the feasibility of this agreement that the renewal of the injunctions that protect the generators of the cost related to GSF since June of this year. Now about the power plant auctions which contract has not being renewed the new rules that allow the concession to keep part of the energy to be produced became more attractive for the assets but on the other hand, the demand paying the payments of grant fee which becomes a great challenge for project especially our sectorial scenario that hasn’t told the restriction, cash restriction to generators and also our economic scenario that also limits the funding option. On the part of the distributors we had an important advance and the expansion perspective for the concession contract. The Federal Accounting Board had its questions answered and now has concluded the process recommending to the MME the expansion of 40 concessions among them further distribution. The agency also has already presented proceedings of the amendment for that expansion and there are conditions for the efficiency in two dimension, service quality and economic finance management, sustainability. So right now we are analyzing other conditions and we are going to submit our decision to shareholders in an extraordinary general meeting that is already being set for December 2. The third quarter also was marked by a more profound Brazilian economic crisis and that has impacted the energy consumption; it’s rough 2.7% vis-à-vis the third quarter of the prior year, according to EPE data. Considering our [indiscernible] market the figures are much better but also negative. The captive market had of drop of 1% vis-à-vis the same period of the prior year and the total market that considers the captive market and for consumers had a drop of 2.5% that impacted the economic results of the distributor in this period. Along the last month also we have seen an improvement in the hydrology especially of regions South and Southeast and along with the reduction of the demand has encouraged the government by the Electric Sector Monitoring Council to switch off the most expensive thermal power plants after August with that reduction in the cost of energy for the system and also the reduction of the tariff that dropped from 55 megawatt-hours to 45 megawatt-hour and releasing a little bit of cost up here for consumers. It’s important to mention that our TPP Araucária has not been impacted by that measure; it’s still operating and available for operation. Along the third quarter that plant has operated during 55 days and made conservative with 548 gigawatt to the system. Still talking about hydrology, the improvement in the reservoir and the switching off of the TPP have allowed higher energy production coming from the HPP, therefore, reducing the exposure to GSF that was an 86% in the 3Q ’15 above the 80% that we have seen in the first half of 2015 and aligned to what we have seen between July and September of 2014. Now Slide number 4, I would like to say that the Federal Regional courts of the 1st Region has approved Copel’s DNT request and suspended any time of bonus related to the concession contract for either HPP up to the moment when analyzes that administrative process that deals with the request to exclude the liability relating to the delay and the conclusion of the plant’s work. With that injunction we are protected about delivery energy in the contract [indiscernible] since the beginning of October is still in the legal area we should highlight the decision of the Supreme Court that has ignored a decision from the Parana Court that determined that Copel should pay R$540 million to Ivaí Engenharia related to concession work of CCH Derivação do Rio Jordão in the 1990s. Copel now is waiting for the publication of this court’s decision and also the answer of Parana Justice Court and with shareholders and the market informed about the process. So we mention the period’s results I would like to highlight that all in parts that are part of the portfolio Brisa Potiguar Complex are already operating. Therefore, we have reached 278 megawatts in an commercial operation we have already produced 422 gigawatt-hour of wind energy in 2015. It is also important to highlight that the four wind parks São Miguel do Gostoso Complex, which it has 108 megawatts of installed capacity and it is a partnership between Copel and Voltalia are also ready to operate. We’re just waiting for the conclusion for this transmission lines and that activity is on the direct accountability of other agents and after that we will start commercial operations. Now the challenge is to start the concession of the wind with Cutia Wind Complex that has 13 wind parks and totals 332 megawatts of installed capacity, and that has provided answer that to — precursor to start commercial operations in 2017 and in 2019. Now I will turn the floor to Luiz Eduardo Sebastiani, our CFO and IR Officer and he’s going to go into the details of our earnings in the quarter. Luiz Eduardo da Veiga Sebastiani Thank you very much, Mr. CEO, Vianna, this is very important moment for the company. The relationship with investors, with the market relatively new information, information important for about our company and we have here superintendents in addition to the officers already mentioned, we have our financial superintendent and also our business development director among our other directors. So good afternoon everyone. Thank you once again for taking part on this conference call about our results. On Slide 5, as you can see we have operating revenue that has increased 20% in the first nine months of 2015 overcoming the R$11 billion. The main reason for that expansion is the growth of 35% of the revenue and that is a result of adjustments defined by Aneel and applied to the tariffs of Copel Distribuição. And we had just an annual adjustment in June and an extraordinary adjustment in March and that was needed to pay increase of energy cost and charges. Also, we have the recognition of almost R$1 billion regarding the result of assets and liabilities in the period. That amount was registered in the first half of the year and it comprised mainly by the tariff deferment and those end up being recovered by tariff after the adjustment in June 24 of this year. And when we consider adjusted figures of the third quarter that is a negative recognition in R$16 million. Now the supply revenue that it has major product of the phase of Copel GeT and total phase of Thermoelectric Araucária reduction of 5% up to September. In Slide 6, we have cost of operating expenses that reached R$10.4 billion between January and September of 2015, 27% higher than the one we had in the same period of last year and that can be explained mainly by the elevation of energy cost that were marked for resale that increased 44% vis-à-vis the same period of last year. That increase is a reflection of the higher cost with acquisition of energy at Itaipu that has increased due to the tariff adjustment and also the dollar appreciation. In addition to that also contributed to the adjustments of contract that were adjusted by the inflation, at the end of transfer of funds from CDE and ACR accounts that offset cost is over $1 billion last year. Also we had an increase of 46% in charges cost reflecting mainly in higher ESS related to the dispatch of thermal power plants out of the order of merit. Manageable cost has increased 16% in the first nine months of 2015 due to the higher expenses with personnel and outsource services and as a consequence of the inflation that has reached around 10% investors at time and the cost increase needed to sustain the growth of the company and to keep the quality standards. I would like to highlight that we have here in Parana along the year a lot of events, climatic events that were very severe and they have generated extraordinary cost. It sounds like [indiscernible] EBITDA is 10% lower than the one we had in the same period of last year totaling R$1.6 billion with a margin of 14% on the operating revenue. The cash generation of Copel GeT accounts for 66% of the consolidated EBITDA positively sound 10% and Copel Telecom 5%. Other companies of the group account for 19% and the main contribution here comes from Araucária TPP. About the EBITDA margin in Copel GeT has closed the first nine months of year with the margin of 30%, Distribuição 2% and Telecom 43%. On Slide 8, we have the consolidated net income for Copel has reached R$863 million up to September of 2015, 19% lower than the same period of 2014 due mainly to lower GSF and also the reduction of the POD sale. Analyzing the subsidiaries’ results we can see that Copel Distribuição it had a net income of R$98 million reserving the loss that happened in the same period of last year. Copel GeT close the period, the first nine months of the year was a net income of R$705 million, 29% lower than the same period of last year and Copel Telecom R$43 million of net income aligned with the same period of 2014. So these were our highlights, we are now available for your questions. I would like to ask your permission Mr. CEO and also our analysts or investors that are following us. We would like right now to make comments or announcements or explanations due to analysis that has been already published in the market and that is about Copel Distribuição balance sheet. Here we have with us, our accountant superintendent that has an important role in the company but also in the sector. He has done accounting of the first in this area and also in the regulating energy sector, and so it’s very important to have him with us and he’s Adriano Fedalto and we are already anticipating to listeners a few comments on that matter. Thank you very much Mr. Adriano. Adriano Fedalto Good afternoon everyone. Thank you for this opportunity to add a little bit more information about our figures of Copel Distribuição. We have seen that this work is our intense quarter for all the distributors; they are going into a process of renewing concessions that is our case as well, and we had very specific events here of Copel and we would like to talk about them so that we can add more information about what has already been seen our accounting for the third quarter, so I would like to ask your permission to tell you a little bit more in my accounting language so that you can have more information. You have seen just like all of us the third quarter and we will be talking us specifically about the third quarter of 2015. We have seen that Copel Distribuição had a negative EBITDA of R$85 million. This is the figure that we would like to go over with you. We have some very specific events in the sector and some specific events for Copel, and we will bring to you a brief review of those. So now I will ask you, your permission to break the ground. Well let’s start by talking about the revenue of Copel Distribuição. We had an event advance now in the third quarter that has generated R$36 million of PIS and COFINS, taxes that has not been recognized. We have a practice here at Copel and all the distributors, everyone operates in the non-cumulative regimen of pace and [indiscernible] and we have been following those movement in credits and we adjust our tax bracket in a way that we have to charge our consumers. But now in the third quarter 2015 that amount, that amounted to R$36 million; the adjustment required time. So you will see the adjustment in these brackets of our consumers now in the fourth quarter and we will recover part of that amount or actually the full amount in the fourth quarter, so this is the first adjustment when we do the reconciliation of R$85 million of the negative EBITDA. I would ask you to follow that up with us so that we come up to the total amount that we really reflect the reality of the company in terms of the EBITDA so right now are just R$36 million. A second event that have also impacted specifically the third quarter is related to the tariff flag. We had an adjustment of R$33 million in the quarter due to effective receivables in June of 2015 and you may see that in our document, so we have other sectorial assets then they have been adjusted for the third quarter and R$33 million so this is another event because of the tariff receivables that was being posted as sectorial assets and it has been adjusted in the third quarter. We have revenue adjustment of R$5 million that is in accounting, that is re-accounting of CVA, we have been seeing CVA and the movement they become even more complex with time so their adjustments here some re-accounting and those were R$5 million, so please consider that as a non-recurring adjustment. Now going forward with the revenues, we have R$14 million from estimates of R$57 million of amortization of [indiscernible] two specific event first R$14 million once again, we have closed with the best information possible in June 30 and when you concluded the date, we have to do an adjustment of R$14 million. Now the amortization of CVA usually the amounts were not representative and in our cases specifically with the deferral of R$1 billion that we had accumulated in the sectorial asset account and transferred that after June. We have a specific effect of R$7 million which is recurring from June to July. Also, they have been adjusted now in this third quarter, so these event is specific event and I would like to have your understanding here just making it very clear these were specific events. And finally the last adjustment that we see in revenues that we had revenues not accounted, not posted R$42 million. Now that happened now here in the R$42 million that has impacted our results. As soon as the market recovers this will be also posted either in the fourth quarter or when the market recovers itself in the first quarter of next year but this is not a loss for the company, just an adjusted because of the fluctuation of the market as we have seen in the last quarter. So this fact of situation of events total R$130 million, R$137 million and, therefore, we have negative EBITDA 85% and you can take that out we’ll have a positive EBITDA of R$20 million which will bring it best to reality. We had several off timely events, I mean, once in a lifetime event and they had some temporary effect here. Now going forward, the cost we had some specific events once again for the sector for the company that have reviewed the concession or are reviewing the concession. We discussed a lot with Aneel and distribution sector and especially the companies that are right now that just gained a renewal of their concessions and or July 7 most of them have their contract expired and we need it to reflect the debt on our balance sheet. And what was the better estimate for a financial balance, how much I will be reimbursed if I have to give away my concession. So since we operate it up to the expiration of course we need to deal with that number. So what was the best disclosure of our balance sheet in September are now have guided us by the means of a report directed to the whole sector. And so given if a concession is replaced we’ll have at least 24 months to do that adjustment, a possible bidding so that the new concession takes over the process. So the criteria was to work with 24 months of that financial asset transfers to an intangible asset. Therefore, our quote will increase and we’ll work with that amount divided by 24 and that is going to affect the revenues that I am receiving to operate the concession. So that even is going to be reflected in all concessions areas that are undergoing the process at Amanhã (phonetic) and also that reflects the moment of the slow down also that has impacted our EBITDA reducing it to R$11 million in the quarter. Follow-up that figure again in our reconciliation. Something else that happened specifically in Copel is what we had low additional costs. We are already working with process for tariff review in our distributors. We are receiving them now and we are preparing ourselves so that our base can be referred with the lowest addition as possible. Therefore, we analyze all our work, everything we are doing in a serious so that we can adjust ourselves to the regulating standards that we consider reasonable and that quarter there we had an adjustment of R$11 million. Also there was a reclassification our financial expenses to operating expenses. Therefore, this impacted the EBITDA and R$13 million that was to VACATICV (phonetic) or amount that we pay are consumers. 2015 was intense climatically speaking. We then were closing that as financial expenses. As all companies in the electric sector we are adjusting ourselves with the conditions and characteristics of the sector and to the new accounting rules. And so we have the R$13 million financial expenses there being classified now as operation of expenses, so this also once again there is one-time thing. And finally in other adjustment in the results, in the third quarter of 2015 when we compare it to the second one is it an increase for the allowance of provision or doubtful debt account. We are very close now — there was an increase in the third quarter because of the increase in our traffics but was an event that we thought in this third quarter of 2015. Consequently, all these adjustments in our account of expenses reflected R$45 million. So if we start at 85 of our average and add up all of the events or the expenses we then will be with an EBITDA that should be over R$111 — sorry once again ask your permission to say it, and I just want to help our shareholders and investors. We are seeing specifically our expenses with depreciation and amortization it is only adjusted for EBITDA purposes and now is R$67 million and we see that if we calculate it in a more macro manner and building our base of 2015 you’re going to reach R$87 million. So we have an expectation of depreciation. We will adjust our EBIT expectation and we find our adjustments relating our EBITDA expectations. And I will conclude saying about the supply. I notice that this known in the market in the sector but we Copel use a criteria that is very sophisticated so that we have a better disclosure of our figures and we work with 30 days and 31 days. So in the quarter that closes 30 days we will see a little bit higher amount of that, and for September 30 we have variable R$10 million because of the 30 days that will also be adjusted in October because of that criteria. So in summary, now to open the Q&A session that I’m sure everyone is interested and that’s what I had to say. If you have any questions I’ll be available to answer them and I want all of you to be helping you to bring transparent figures, transparent numbers, that’s our objective always. Thank you very much. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Now we are going to start the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question is from Mr. Marcus [indiscernible] at JPMorgan. Mr. Marcus? Unidentified Analyst Good afternoon, Vianna and Sebastiani. Thank you for this opportunity. I have two questions, both related to the Distribuição. The first one is related to the renewal of the assets that have been proposed by Aneel. My question is, is it really worthwhile for Copel to renew that asset? If we check the leverage level that was indicated by Aneel so that you could renew the concession and should you have to have extra funding there maybe if I can just restate in R$1 million so if we analyze the adjusted EBITDA going to need an even if we completed that and we work with an EBITDA higher R$300 million a year it is still very far. So my question is would it be good to renew even if it’s better to try indemnity? We have the assets of R$2.5 billion and to work with something close to R$4 billion, would that make more sense to investors once within we have better return this way rather than having an asset with a low level of efficiency? If you despite keep this asset what sort of measures can we see in terms of distributor recovery efficiency gain so that we could work closer to the regulating agencies to generate value to shareholders, that is, in the last three years the company was very clear relating to your level of efficiency in the near future and when we look the figure three years later we see that there is a long way to go. So I have data here from the Distribuição. If it were adjusted material services the third quarter of 2015 vis-à-vis third quarter of 2014 the quarter yield has increased to 28% way above inflation. So that’s only a fact in terms of a trajectory of manageable cost, are they feasible to be reduced? And I already thank you for your answer and for this opportunity. Unidentified Company Representative Good afternoon. [indiscernible] everyone. This is Acosta (phonetic), I am the assistant director of the distributor. About your question, first, the expansion of the contract yesterday the approval was a rectification of the contractor or the proceedings of the contracts have been approved for the expansion of the distributor contract. In fact, the new contract comes with a few innovations also related to the economic financial sustainability of the concessionary agent. So this is new vis-à-vis what we had in a prior client contract and now it’s we have a strong management in terms of the performance of the contract for keeping the concession more 30 years. As far as Copel is concerned, we have no doubt that we should renew the contract. Obviously Copel is adapting itself and was waiting for the condition and you can see that we are trying to be compliant with the new condition, especially about the sustainability and that is going to be renewed especially checked in the next five years. So in terms of cost then and mitigation and other indicators that will be considered especially quality indicators we are already working. Yet, we have the variables that are not controllable the same but we do understand that for cost reduction and in order to reach the quality index for the new contract we depend on the company’s action. Here we could mention an automation program for the rural sector where we still have a strong contribution in the quality topic and we have already started planning starting in 2016 for the next three years the company will invest in automation in the rural sector. And surely in controlling the duration of interruptions and reducing that according to our target. And with that we will also automate the rural grid and at work, and of course, we are working as well to reduce cost and to work faster and to reduce the displacement that we have and the number of people that we need to have complete the target stated in the new contract. And obviously that’s an investment means more working more remuneration. I’m sorry to insist that you understand that these measures are business mention I’m not to have to company close to the regulatory EBITDA or you have additional measures for that? It is obvious that these are specific measures that we are adopting and we see that there is a greater facility and a scale gain. And of course we — if we consider continuing the actions we are already practicing. Then terms of course this is major effective tool to the compliance with the regulations. Thank you. Operator Our next question is from Mr. [indiscernible], Credit Suisse. Unidentified Analyst Hello everyone, good afternoon. I have a quick question. About the auction of expired concession you said that you’re interested in keeping public disclosure, public disclosure is one that does not have the grant an impairment. What is the idea of Copel about this auction? Are you going to take part on that? Are you going with your own capital? Can you give us any idea how these things work? Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna This is Luiz Fernando. Yes, Copel will take part on that, this is Lot B, and we have not decided what we are going to do, if we are going to go in alone, it will have a partnership, we are deciding between today and tomorrow, and we already have funding for that operation. And [indiscernible] on capital and third-party capital. Unidentified Analyst And finally, your objective is Parigot de Souza or other product lines as well? Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna No, only Parigot de Souza and the other small clients that come with it. Unidentified Analyst Okay that’s fine. Thank you. Operator Our next question is from Ms. Carolina Carneiro, Santander. Ms. Carolina? Carolina Carneiro Good afternoon everyone. About the auction, can you give us an overview? Are you going to take part on the A minus 1 auction that should happen this year? And can you talk a little bit about the selling price of those? And if you can also talk about contracting energy, we know that you have certain amount of energy for next year, so I would like to know if you have anything else to tell us about that contract? Thank you. Sergio Luiz Lamy Good afternoon Carolina, this is Sergio Lamy, Copel GeT. About the first question Auction A minus 1 of this year, no, it’s not going to be possible for Copel to participate because we do not have energy for sale after 2016. Therefore, we would not be able to participate on the A minus 1 auction. For the other years 2017 on this we would have a commercialization strategy and that strategy starts to be deployed at the end of 2015 and it will continue along 2016. I would like to add we even started the participation of A minus 1 but with disclosure of the selling price, as we have mentioned, we decided to stay out of it and wait for another opportunity. Operator Ms. Carolina. Next question is from Mr. [indiscernible] from Citigroup. Unidentified Analyst Thank you for the call. About Colider with the injection of Copel did not do anything else on this quarter, so what is the talk, what the regulator do you have a perspective about when this is going to be analyzed? And another question on the distribution, should we keep on waiting for the next quarter increase that we saw in the last quarter; should we see a reduction what is the perspective for the short term? Thank you. Sergio Luiz Lamy Good afternoon, Katie, this is Mr. Luiz Lamy, Copel GeT. About the first question Colider product plant. Our request to anticipate to takeover was because we understand there was a delay from the agencies to decide about the responsibility for Colider? So now to bring directors had meeting results, and in that meeting they promised us that this would be discussed in April. And so far in October nothing has happened but we understand that there was not another possibility other than to try and anticipate that and that has been done in the first region. I don’t know if that answer is enough for you but maybe Acacio now can talk about the distributor. A – Acacio Massato Nakayama Good afternoon, Katie. Yes, of course, there is special attention in terms of cost and to be close to the regulatory cost, the major variation that we have seen is that we still keep on we intend to decrease cost but the climate and other factors have been causing the increase in manageable cost. The idea is that as we have seen previous technologies that might mitigate that to try and re-establish effective possible in our system reducing backend improving quality and maximizing our productivity reducing cost. Now going back to Colider, we should not expect much or an answer in conclusion in the short-term, am I right? Unidentified Company Representative No. On the contrary, there is decision, this board decision of anticipated guardian or trust that should happen, we expect to have an answer of the deliberation still this year that is what we expect. Thank you. Operator Our next question is from Mr. Marcello Scott from UBS. Unidentified Analyst Thank you all. I would like to go back to cut out questions. I understood that you had 20% of contracted energy and that contract increase in the long year, when you say that you have no energy available to sell, is that because they want to have a buffer for GSF or may be a protection for Colíder or other power plants that might be delayed, that is my first question thank you? Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna Good afternoon Marcello, yes, that is yes, we have certain amount of contracted energy and we are saving time for a buffer for the GSF for taxes in the next year and just to cover Colíder that should just become operational and in the midst of next year okay. And what you have in terms of forecast of GSF for next year and another question, if you have a favorable decision about Colíder, if you get this waiver from now, do you understand that you could have an offset which in theory you have already said in terms of energy, so do you understand that you could have some type of exemption because of what is already paid for. Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna Can you please repeat your question? Yes, the first question is GSF for 2016 and my second question is that if you have a favorable decision about what you have already paid in terms of penalty. Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna Okay, our expectation for GSF in 2016 is of 84% more or less that’s an average for the year, and decision about Colíder will redirect our strategy related to the amount of energy we have for 2016 depending on the decision where we will have a favorable expectation about what we have requested and obviously that could place us in a more comfortable situation in terms of energy for next year and we could look for commercialization. Unidentified Analyst So just confirming, you expect 84% of GSF for 2016 right? Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna Yes. Operator Our next question is from Ms. Lilyanna Yang from UBS. Ms. Lilyanna? Lilyanna Yang Thank you for this opportunity. Good afternoon everyone. About Copel Distribuição, can you tell us a little bit, what you expect to have in terms of demand for next year and were you short or long in managing distribution for this year? And can you talk about the recurring of EBITDA for the next year, I want to understand if you have a specific program, some specific effort to reduce your PMSO that’s around R$80 million higher than the regulatory levels? Second question about your dividend policy do you intend to pay on the net income, I would like to have an idea about the capital structure because now we’re showing 2.5 times higher net for EBITDA. Thank you. Luiz Eduardo da Veiga Sebastiani Lilyanna, this is Sebastiani. Lilyanna, can you repeat your question especially the one related to the distributor? Lilyanna Yang Of course, about distribution, I would like to have an idea of specific measures you would have to reduce the level of operating cost that team has sold now R$280 million higher than what would be the target regulatory level? And can you give us perspective of volume and demand for next year and is in this year now that you have an exposure or with the surplus of energy at Copel Distribuição because I’m trying to understand the result of the third quarter in addition to the items that have been mentioned by you on the beginning? Luiz Eduardo da Veiga Sebastiani Thank you very much, Lilyanna. Good afternoon, Lilyanna. The distributor will keep on working to reduce cost especially now in a more adjusted manner because of the no contract that is under analysis on our side and obviously some rules have been added and the distributor will adjust itself to comply with the concession contract, that show that the measures that are providing results are compliant with the contract. So we will keep on following the same path. About contracting energy, so far that this year is not exposed and is within the regulatory condition. Lilyanna Yang What about the demand? Can you tell us anything about it? Luiz Eduardo da Veiga Sebastiani About the demand and consumption we have seen a movement because of economic scenario of the country that is reflecting on the energy consumption as well as with a strong impact on the residential market because of the tariff increase. It is a natural movement, but in our market in Parana, we have seen a low retraction and we expect to see a recovery after 2016 when [indiscernible] starts moving again and considering that Parana has an agro-industrial area that is strong in with mechanism to mitigate impact. Lilyanna Yang Okay, the second question is for Mr. Sebastiani that is related to the dividend levels. Luiz Eduardo da Veiga Sebastiani Thank you very much, Lilyanna. There are no chances in the payout policy of the company. We are at a very interesting level wanting companies that are found and even that we might have an increase in the dark because leverage and investments. We have not concluded the need of payout operations right now. Thank you. Operator Please wait while we wait for more questions. Our next question is from Carolina Carneiro, Santander. Ms. Carolina. Carolina Carneiro I am sorry it got disconnected. I just would like to add a question to my prior question. What is under your assumption, is it 0.84 is that for next year? What type of the demand drop are you working with to reach the figure in considering that you foresee a GSF so high for 2016? Just to make it clear this was though was not able to listen, I got disconnected earlier on. But why are you not considering with the Provisional Measure 688 with the final — its final terms? So what would you have to change in the provisional measure, so do you see any possible changes to it so that you would consider being complaint about GSF for 2016? Unidentified Company Representative We estimate an instability from now on. In terms of the demand, we should not have significant changes in our forecast and of course that this figure takes into consideration that you’re are not able to recover reservoirs such as a southeast even if we have a good rainy season, if not able to recover that trap we expect that this recovery should happen in a longer term. So we still believe on the possibility of having a GSF very low for next year. About Provisional Measure 688, since we have most agents and that provisional measure and the part of it that talks about has a hydrological risk for non-contracted energy in the ACR in the regulated contracted environment the proposal and the current proposal really does not please use, does not please Copel, and I can tell you that it does not believe most of the generators agents, and of course, we have not made a final decision yet in terms of that situation. We’re doing our math and obviously we request that more openly soon. But there is nothing that I can tell you right now, the way that is being placed — a set for non-contracted energy. Does not – the decisions has not been made. We’re [indiscernible] all studies to make a final decision. Yes, we of course sees the possibility of having a final proposal of change from the government. Well obviously the measure is still under evolving. There is a possibility of some adjustment done to it, but we do not believe in major changes there. We do not expect to have important and relevant changes in what has already proposed in that provisional measure. Thank you very much. Do you have an expectation for a long-term contract…. Carolina Carneiro Do you have an expectation for a long-term contract to price? How many — I’m sorry five yes, it could be five years? Yes, you have a stronger commercialization, I don’t know how liquidity is, but do you have a price expectation for three, five years? Unidentified Company Representative Carolina, we are working internally following strategies of the company and — it will not be wise to disclose that information was more objective data available. So we will keep our internal work being done about that information, and I apologize for not being able to tell you more. Thank you very much. Operator If there are no further questions, I would like to turn before to the company or management for final remarks. Luiz Fernando Leone Vianna This is Luiz Fernando Vianna, and my final remarks are that the sectorial crisis will impact the companies and the sector. We’re taking all measures needed to mitigate great crisis and in spite of the results we believe that we have been able to successful [indiscernible] and we expect that Provisional Measure 688 that should be appro1ved next week and we expect it will help us unlock the short-term market, because it’s totally strong. And that prioritization ends up worsening the crisis. But maybe the sector has to grow through this problem to find a solution and then have the market going back to work. And that’s all we have to say, thank you very much. Operator The conference call of Copel has concluded. Thank you very much for your participation and have a nice afternoon.

Why The U.S. Stock Market Never Completely Recovered

Clearly, the global economic slowdown remains a headwind for U.S. stocks. The same canaries in the investment mines that stopped serenading last summer are straining their vocal chords once again. In sum, the S&P 500 has never fully recovered because global economic headwinds, equity overvaluation and anemic market breadth remain. Some things go unnoticed. For example, the S&P 500 rallied 13% off its closing lows (1867) set in late August. Lost in the shuffle? The popular benchmark has yet to revisit its closing highs (2130) registered back in May. In essence, the corrective activity that began in the springtime as a function of a faltering global economy, overvalued equities and weakening market internals has yet to run its course. What’s more, these factors that led to the August-September sell-off in risk assets are unlikely to dissipate quickly. Let’s start with the macro-economic backdrop. Data show that quantitative easing (QE) in Europe is not stimulating borrowing activity the way that it stimulated borrowing activity in the United States. If European consumers and European businesses are fearful to take out loans – or if creditors are unwilling to extend credit – the euro-zone economy is unlikely to show improvement. Similarly, European stocks would not experience much of a boost from share buybacks. Not surprisingly, then, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSEARCA: VGK ) failed to rise above its 200-day moving average; it never came close to recapturing its 52-week high. At this moment, the euro-zone proxy is still 12% below its high-water mark. Europe is hardly the only canker sore on the world stage. Japan recently revised its economic growth projections lower. China is slowing dramatically. And nations that depend upon natural resources exports (e.g., Australia, Canada, Brazil, Chile, etc.) are witnessing yet another downturn in commodity prices. In fact, the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF (NYSEARCA: DBC ) has plummeted back to levels not seen since the late August free-fall for U.S. stocks. The bullish case for U.S. stocks continues to rely on the notion that the rest of the world does not matter. Ironically, the Federal Reserve did not raise borrowing costs in September and cast doubt on any rate hike this year when it stated that “…global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity.” The central bank subsequently backtracked at its October meeting by removing its commentary on global issues altogether. So do the economic hardships abroad matter or not? They matter with respect to corporate earnings and revenue. Consider the reality that corporate profits as well as sales were negative for the recent quarter (Q3) and that multinationals with greater overseas exposure witnessed steeper year-over-year declines. Clearly, the global economic slowdown remains a headwind for U.S. stocks. What’s more, declining earnings and declining revenue continue to pressure U.S. stock valuations . We are now looking at a price-to-sales ratio of 1.84 – one of the highest P/S ratios on record. The third component that sent stocks tumbling back in August was the softening of market internals . In particular, the discrepancy between the S&P 500’s Advance-Decline (A/D) Line and that of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) pointed to fewer and fewer large companies holding up the benchmark. Here in November, the disparity appears to have resurfaced. Some researchers have been particularly outspoken on the lack of market breadth. Heading into the current week of trading, Strategas Research Partners noted that ” the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 have contributed more than 100% of the year’s roughly 2% gain .” They added that ” the 10 biggest stocks in the index accounted for just 19% of the gains last year and 15.2% of the index’s return in 2013 .” We should let the above data sink in for a moment. In 2013 as well as 2014, the S&P 500’s appreciation was attributable to most of its components. In 2015? Only the 10 biggest large-caps account for the positive spin. It gets worse. The same canaries in the investment mines that stopped serenading last summer – high yield junk bonds, emerging market stocks, small company stocks, commodities – are straining their vocal chords once again. The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: HYG ) appears destined to retest its 52-week lows in the same way that commodities via DBC have. In sum, the S&P 500 has never fully recovered because global economic headwinds, equity overvaluation and anemic market breadth remain. Transporters, industrials, energy, materials, retail, leisure, household products, utilities, real estate, media, healthcare – a wide variety of sectors and sub-sectors have been buckling. It follows that it should not be all that surprising to see the S&P 500 buckle as well. Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.

Just Energy (JE) Q2 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Just Energy Group Inc. (NYSE: JE ) Q2 2016 Earnings Conference Call November 12, 2015 02:00 PM ET Executives Rebecca MacDonald – Executive Chair Deb Merril – Co-CEO James Lewis – Co-CEO Pat McCullough – CFO Analysts Nelson Ng – RBC Capital Markets Damir Gunja – TD Securities Kevin Chiang – CIBC Carter Driscoll – FBR Operator Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Just Energy Group Incorporated Conference Call to discuss the Second Quarter 2016 Results for the period ended September 30, 2015. At the end of today’s presentation, there will be a formal Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the meeting over to Deb Merril. Please go ahead, Deb. Deb Merril Thank you very much. Hi. My name is Deb Merril. I’m the Co-CEO of Just Energy and I would like to welcome you all for our fiscal 2016 second quarter conference call. I have with me today Rebecca MacDonald, our Executive Chair; my Co-CEO, James Lewis; as well as Pat McCullough, our CFO. Pat and I will discuss the results of the quarter as well as our expectations for the future. We will then open the call to questions. Before we begin, let me preface the call by telling you that our earnings release and potentially our answers to your questions will contain forward-looking financial information. This information may eventually prove to be inaccurate, so please read the disclaimer regarding such information at the bottom of our press release. We are extremely pleased with the results this quarter. Our business continues to perform very well delivering results that demonstrate a significantly improved profitability profile of the company, as well as highlight our ability to generate meaningful cash flow to meet our ongoing capital commitments, while funding our strategic growth. Our profitability profile continued to improve as a result of our margin per customer improvement initiatives. As a result, we were able to convert solid top-line revenue growth during the period to a 44% increase in base EBITDA. During the quarter, we added 290,000 gross customers in total, this fully offset the attrition and failure to renew within our customer base of over 4.6 million residential customer equivalent, as well as resulted in net customer additions of 4,000 RCEs. While down year-over-year it’s important to understand that these net additions were accomplished in the midst of our ongoing margin improvement initiatives which as you all are well aware has resulted in the company greatly improving the overall profit goals. This aligns with our pursue to driving more margin per customer and highlights our commitment to only accept new customers that meet our profitability profile, even if that results in temporary increases into attrition. Our goal is to optimize absolute profit, absolute cash and absolute returns for our shareholders. If that means we have the color our book order slightly to deliver superior absolute returns that’s what we’ll do. Now that doesn’t mean we aren’t claiming we’re on growth. We will grow in three ways. First, we’re going to increase of our footprint to bring our product to the markets. We’re currently evaluating our opportunities both domestically and internationally to do this. Second, we’ll increase the number of products per customer through adding new products and technology into our portfolio. Finally, we’ll continue to pursue relationships with strategic partners to deliver broader energy management solutions, like our partnership with Clean Power Finance. I’ll also give more detail on these things in my closing comments. This was a great quarter for our business. The improve profitability drove significantly improved cash flow, an increase based on some continuing operations. In addition base funds from continuing operations increased 59% during the quarter and we achieved a payout ratio of 50% during the second quarter. These are levels that this company has not seen in years. In early September, we successfully renegotiated the credit facility, resulting in an increase to our line of credit for an additional three years under favorable terms. Simultaneously, we continue to reduce our long-term debt while growing earnings. We are very pleased to be able to say that our book value net debt was under three times our trailing 12 month base EBITDA, significantly improved from 4.3 times just one-year ago. We’re working hard to further improve upon that significant accomplishment and we remain committed to further reducing this ratio and in time would like to see that ratio closer to two. We remain committed to running the financially prudent organization for the benefit of shareholders. Our aim is to de-lever, restructure our existing debt, protect the $0.50 per share dividend and protect our owners from further deletion — from future deletions. Overall, the results for the quarter in the first-half with fiscal 2016 exceeded management’s expectations and provides us great confidence we can continue to deliver throughout the back half of our fiscal year and beyond. With that I’ll turn it over to Pat. Pat McCullough Thank you, Deb. As Deb said, we had another outstanding quarter in terms of both profitability and cash flow. In fact this is the third straight quarter in which the business has delivered greater than 20% year-over-year growth in both base EBITDA and base funds from operations. The business is performing exceptionally well and we’re beginning to see a consistency in our ability to take exceptional top-line performance and deliver even more impressive bottom-line results. Much like the first quarter you can see that amplification effect again in our second quarter as we drove top-line revenue growth by 18%, grew gross margin by 26% and delivered even higher year-over-year growth and base EBITDA 44%. As I said last quarter, this is very important to us as it means that we’re doing more with every dollar of sales that we bring into the company. The continued improvement in our operating results is also reflected in our cash flow performance in the quarter. We ended the quarter with 89 million in cash and cash equivalents, up from 79 million at the end of fiscal 2015 and up from $30 million 12 months ago. In addition base funds from operations increased 59% from the same quarter last year and are up 72% during the first six months of the year compared to last year. Let me cover some of the highlights of the second quarter and then provide some added color in certain areas. In the period, gross margin was up 26% to $167.2 million both the consumer and commercial divisions were able to increase gross margin year-over-year by double-digit, as a result of management’s ongoing margin per customer improvement initiatives as well as lower commodity cost and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. As we’ve discussed in great detail with you over the course of the past year, we continue to successfully execute our margin per customer improvement initiatives in which we remain focused on implementing a more disciplined pricing strategy, in which we only accept new customers that meet our profitability targets and allow lower margin customers to a trip [ph]. The result of the past year demonstrate the success of this initiative as we’ve improved our year-over-year gross margin by 22% on a trailing 12 month basis with even more progress available to us. To add some additional color on a most recent effectiveness of this initiative. We’re now signing consumer margins at $209 per RCE which compares to $188 one year ago. The higher margin on consumer customers is an important positive trend as these customers are largely locked into multi-year contract terms. On the commercial side margins are now being added at $84 per RCE which compares to only $80 one year ago. Perhaps just as notable is the widening gross margin spread between customer added and customers loss in both divisions during the period. Base EBITDA of $45.7 million grew 44% year-over-year even while absorbing 3.4 million of commercial prepaid commission expense. This was due to last quarter’s change in our commercial commission firms. Before the impact of prepaid commission expense, we actually grew year-over-year base EBITDA by an outstanding 55% during the quarter. The consumer division contributed 29.5 million to base EBITDA for the quarter, an increase of 75% while the commercial division contributed 16.2 million to base EBITDA, a 9% increase year-over-year. Within commercial there was a 32% increase in base EBITDA before the impact of prepaid commission expense. As Deb mentioned earlier, we continue to effectively manage overhead cost. General and administrative expenses declined year-over-year after taking into account the impact of the stronger dollar on U.S. based cost. Selling and marketing expenses increased by over 23% from the same quarter last year. However, nearly all of the increase was driven by the stronger dollar and prepaid commission expense. Similar to general and administrative expenses our fixed sales and marketing cost were actually flat year-over-year after that adjustment. Let me close with an update on our other key financial metrics and balance sheet items. The payout ratio from base funds from continuing operations was 50% for the three months ending September 30th, compared to 78% reported in the same quarter of fiscal 2015. On a trailing 12 month basis, the payout ratio has now decline to 62% overall. We ended the quarter with 88.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, an increase of 197% from 29.8 million reported in the year ago period. We reported no debt outstanding on the credit facilities at quarter end as compared to 163.1 million drawn last year. The increase in cash balances and decrease in credit facility withdrawals over the past year have resulted in 222 million of additional corporate buying power. As we head into the fiscal third quarter, I want to stop and remind everyone [Audio Gap] expensed for fiscal 2016. We expected over half of that 20 million will be expensed in the upcoming third quarter. This will of course also affect the payout ratio in the third quarter. With that said, we remain committed to reaching and maintaining a payout ratio of less than 70% in the near-term as we continue to grow FFO while remaining committed to our current dividend policy. At quarter end long-term debt was $685.5 million, a decrease of $126.3 million or 16% year-over-year. Booked value net debt was 2.96 or less than three times the trailing 12 month base EBITDA, significantly improved from 4.3 times just one year ago and something the team here is extremely proud of accomplishing in a relatively short time frame. As Deb mentioned, we renegotiated the credit facility during the quarter resulting in an increased line to 277.5 million for an additional three years under favorable terms from a very impressive group of syndicate lenders. No cash was withdrawn on the facility as of September 30, 2015. During the quarter, we also purchased 3.3 million of the 330 million convertible debentures under our NCIB program. During the past year $6 million of the $330 million convertible debentures have been repurchased under this program. In summary, the business has delivered outstanding results in the first half of fiscal 2016 and we expect this to continue in the second half of the year. As such we are reaffirming our previously provided guidance of $193 million to $203 million of base EBITDA for the full year fiscal 2016, an increase of 7% to 13% when compared directly to fiscal 2015. Please keep in mind that the guidance for fiscal 2016 includes $20 million of incremental deductions in base EBITDA related to the recently implemented change to our commercial commission terms, meaning that management have effectively raised our guidance for the year by $20 million. When adjusted for this $20 million change in classifications base EBITDA actually is increasing by 18% to 24% in fiscal 2016. With that, I’ll turn it over to Deb for some concluding remarks. Deb Merril Thank you, Pat. Having heard more of the details from Pat, I trust you can appreciate why the team here at Just Energy is enthusiastic about the progress being made. We are very proud of the financial improvements, but even more importantly, we are excited about the opportunities to grow this business through new initiatives. I’ll just make a few final comments to update you on some of these exciting growth initiatives. From a geographical expectation perspective, the UK business continues to thrive. Today, that market has grown to become 6% of our customer base at 275,000 RCEs in total. This is a very profitable piece of the business for our company and we are seeing growth both on commercial and the consumer side. We believe this early success validates or model and our ability to compete outside of North America taking the lessons learned and evaluating new avenues for growth and new market that will benefit from our innovative approach to energy management solutions. Given or greatly improved financial position, we are actively evaluating new market opportunity that offers from demographic, clear participation and industry trend and favorable regulatory landscape across new parts in the world. From a product innovation perspective, we believe a large part of our continue success, will be driven by our ability to provide innovative, value driven products to meet customers need. We’re finding these types of products are gaining more appeal and presenting more value per customers which in turn allows us to price our energy management solutions at more premium points as well as retain customers for a longer duration and drive sustainable profitability for the future. For example, our flat bill offering, which are now being marketed in Ontario, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia and the UK allow consumers ultimate predictability. We introduced this product over two years ago in Ontario and based on that success we rolled it out on a broader scale just in the last few months. These products remove the price and volume risk from customers billed by guaranteeing them the same price every month for their energy supply regardless of price fluctuation or changes in usage. We can demonstrate greater than average margins on its offering as customers see the value and predictability in this product. Another example is our smart thermostat, where we currently have almost 50,000 customers today with the product. The smart thermostat are bundled with the commodity contract and our experience indicates that customers with bundled product have lower attraction and higher overall profitability. Further expansions of flat bill offering smart thermostat and other innovative products or key drivers for continued growth of Just Energy and we’ll keep adding new innovative product bundled with technology to drive continued improvement and the profitability of the business. Before concluding, let me provide you with an update on our solar business. Just Energy Solar program remains on track. The feedback has been very positive and the door-to-door efficiencies are proving to support strong growth in this platform. We commenced our initial pilot phase in California and New York with a volume of customer signed during this initial pilot resulting in higher-than-expected profit. We continue to integrate lessons learned through our pilot program into our go-to-market strategy, we brought in key talent to support our solar growth and we are working closely with our partner Clean Power Finance to create innovative new products that address the challenges within the solar market associated with strict underwriting criteria as well as installation capacity. Based on the success for the pilot launch, operations will continue to grow with further expansion and the near-term, while continuing to push the industry forward towards developing more value-add customer friendly products. During Q1 and Q2, Just Energy added hundreds of new solar customers and by fiscal year-end we expect to have [indiscernible]. To summarize, we’re operating from a greatly improved financial position, which we expect will continue to strengthen. Our financial flexibility, combined with our commitment to maintaining a capital-light model, supports our ability to pursue our growth strategy, which focuses on new geographies, innovative products that meet customers changing demands, and new energy management solutions that will continue to disrupt the traditional utility model. Our first half performance puts us on track to achieve our full year expectations. As we are now beginning our largest seasonal sales generated quarters. With that, we’ll now open for questions. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Nelson Ng from RBC Capital Markets. Nelson please go ahead. Nelson Ng Quick question on the 2017 debts, can you just give us update on programs in terms of the — I guess eventual refi of that debt and I guess based on what you know today and what’s your — what the most likely solution for that debt? Pat McCullough Thanks Nelson. This is Pat. Let’s talk about what we’re trying to do in reference what Deb was talking about. So as we look at the overall strategy we tend to de-lever, we like to restructure that debt and we’re obviously focused on the 2017 330 million converse given their size and being an earliest maturity. But we’re also looking to protect shareholders from future dilution. So what management is attempting to do right now is restructure those 330s with a pure debt instrument. And in our pursuits of doing that if we’re able to do that we’ll obviously protect the shareholders from a future dilutive instrument. If we’re unable to accomplish that through a pure debt instrument then we obviously know that the Canadian convertible market, the U.S. convertible market maybe price a debt with stock warrants will be there for us. But the company is really aiming to protect the shareholders in terms of restructuring net debt. Prior to going towards something with an equity hook. Nelson Ng And then just kind of moving on to weather, I think everyone has been talking about El Niño lately, can you just comment about the weather derivatives you have and what type of variability you would expect in fiscal Q4 if the weather turns out to be quite warm? James Lewis Nelson this ism James Lewis. From our perspective as you know, we look to stabilize our all financials there and we put the weather hedge in place. As we’ve said historically, we expect that weather hedge to perform effectively in the range of 0% to 5% in terms of dollar impact there. But historically we’ve done a much better job of identifying new ways to protecting ourselves and we feel like that weather hedge that put in place in the last few years has served us well. Nelson Ng And I guess just one last question, I think Deb mentioned that you guys are looking to expanding to new regions, I presume you’re talking about new countries rather than new states and provinces? And also does that mean you’re kind of expanding your European presence? Deb Merril What I think — the UK expansion, we’re very pleased with the success of it and it kind of proved out the model that we can take what we know here and what we do unique here to other countries where it make sense. So we are actively looking at Europe and other parts of the world right now, to decide where we want to expand to next. It will be all be based on making sure that our model fit there as well as what technology is available, what we can really do in that market as far as bringing some alternatives that is unique. So the answer is yes and probably most of it will be international expansion. We have some utilities in some markets that we’re not currently in, which will round that out over the next bit, but most of the focus will be international. Operator And our next question comes from Damir Gunja from TD Securities. Damir, please go ahead. Damir Gunja Just wanted to touch on — obviously, you’ve done a great job taking you margins up and letting go of the lower margin customers coming up for renewal, where would you see along that process when you look at your book, I am just trying to think about the coming year and sort of how much of that process has been completed and how much is left? James Lewis Damir, I think, James here again, I think when you look at our book right now, the way we’ve evaluated is as we go forward, we look at the market that provide us the greatest flexibility and profitability, one of the things that we’ve done as we analyzed the market and the brokers, we look at the brokers who are providing us the high margin [Audio Gap] customers are the ones we’re working with to make sure we are giving those folks what they need for them to be successful which is allowing us to be successful. And then on the flipside on the residential, what we’re looking at as Deb talked about those innovative products, the places that slowed it down are some of the utilities that can’t handle them, that can’t handle like a [indiscernible] or other innovative type product and we’re working feverishly on those markets. So that’s the way we look at it to go forward. We think we see growth for the foreseeable future here as we move forward. Damir Gunja Is there a number that you can peg, like could you say 25% of the book is still at lower margins or is it 10% or is it 5%? That’s probably a tough thing to answer. Deb Merril It’s really, Damir, it’s on discipline. So it’s not necessarily looking at the bookings and saying when to get rid of these customers, it is disciplined around every product, ever opportunity we have to interact with customer and get a customer. We want to maintain discipline around margins. So those are the things that drive that number not necessarily — okay, we’re 10% through this or 95% through this, it really is a matter of discipline on how we’re operating the business. Damir Gunja Could you give us a little bit of color by region, say Canada, UK versus U.S. or you’re seeing the best margins or is there good and bad in every market? Deb Merril There is definitely, and there are ebbs and flows as well. So if you look at, markets like Texas are highly competitive, but we have profitable products with the ecobee and some other things that we bundled together. So really it just depends on the market and kind of customers we’re going after. Operator [Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from Kevin Chiang from CIBC. Kevin, please go ahead. Kevin Chiang Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just more of a housekeeping question for me. I know you’ve change some of your, I guess accounting practices to be more transparent with some of these commission costs moving to the SG&A line and if you do highlight, it will be a $40 million, I guess headwind in 2017. Given some of the margin left you’re seeing and pushing to solar. Would you expect 2017 earnings to be higher than fiscal 2016 even in the face of this $40 million headwind reflecting some of these margin improvements and new opportunities or is that too bigger of a step-up to deal with? Deb Merril Yes. Kevin, I think from our perspective. We’re going to shoot for that double-digit growth, I think even in 2017 that 8% to 10% probably, is obviously a big headwind to overcome. So we believe that given what we’re seeing in our book as well as some of these other initiatives, that we can still maintain that. Kevin Chiang And just to clarify from that perceptively, when you look at 8% to 10% I presume a lot of that will be driven by solar, sounds like that’s going well. Do you have a sense or are you able to share with us that how much solar contributes to your outlook into fiscal 2017, even qualitatively I know you don’t have official guidance out there right now. Pat McCullough Yes, Kevin. The majority of that profit improvement will come from the three prongs of our gross strategy, which are international, geographic expansion, bring new products those flat billed products and anything like solar, those energy management solution add-ons. The uplift of that any organic the profit potential of the classic products and the classic book that we’re carrying forward. We think we can offset that 40 and still get us in that range of double-digit percentage growth. Operator And our next question comes from Carter Driscoll from FBR. Carter, please go ahead. Carter Driscoll So maybe you could help me understand, utilities can’t handle flat bill or may be qualitatively which geographies might struggle and why that should be a problem and I have several follow-ups. James Lewis Carter, which you’ll find is that some of the utilities for example and we called them rate ready market where you have to provide a rate to those customers. It can’t handle flat bill type product. So we have to be more innovative now, we adjust and communicate to customers and provide innovative product to customers in those jurisdictions. And that various by utility, so you might have multiple utilities in let’s say the state of Pennsylvania, where a few of the utilities you can do it and then few you can. Deb Merril So Carter essentially, they say give us your per kilowatt hour rate and we’ll small side of that time to customer volume and then we’ll build them for you. So in that case it’s very hard to back into a flat bill. Does that makes sense? Carter Driscoll Yes. I mean it’s almost like they’re a bigger intermediately then there are in another market, is that fair? Deb Merril Yes. There are certain utility that bill us, bill our charges on their bill and send to the customer and collect and then bring it back to us. And there are some markets where we bill the customer directly, which obviously gives us the most flexibility. Carter Driscoll I mean is the rational that they’re trying to strict closure to the customer is to why you see that being implemented into an intra-geography basis? James Lewis So Carter I think just historical. I think when you look at, the only product historically those folks have offered have been fixed rate type products or rate type products. As companies like us, have gotten more innovative and you’ve got more product whether it’s screen related, whether it’s thermostat, whether it’s LED lighting or the energy management warrantees those type of products you need to be innovative in places that allow us to bill gives us the greatest flexibility and places where we’re not allowed to build, we have to come up with alternatives to be innovative, but we think we can conquer those challenges. Carter Driscoll Okay. Thank you for that color. Moving over to solar, so obviously you’re in two markets today on regulated, one on the regulated. What are your expectations of moving into more unregulated market tradition or regulated markets to sell it as a bundle in terms of its ability to effect incremental margin. I mean are there differences, that you see between the two distinct markets where there could be a decided difference in margins. And again I realize I’m speculating here to some degree but that as you gear up to kind of port over from your pilot program over the next several quarters to new territories. I’m just trying to get a sense of where you think that margin contribution can come from and I realize it’s still going to be a small portion of your overall growth going forward in the near-term? Pat McCullough Yes. It’s a good question Carter, this is Pat. So if you think about California for example today, we can sell gas in California, we’re bringing residential rooftop solar to California. Smart thermostat and some of the future products that we’re planning can all be brought for the California resident. So the only thing we can’t deliver is that off peak power that this party come from the [indiscernible] in California. If you compared that to New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, we can get the whole product offerings to our customers. If you think about regulated states that we’re not in today, think Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, this provides us an anchor product to enter those markets. So when we think about what Solar does for us; it number one, allows us to be more germane in a place like California where we’re only selling gas, it allows us to offer a superiors premium value prop to our current deregulated markets and then thirdly, it allows us an entry point into new markets that we don’t serve today. Carter Driscoll And then maybe just following up on that, obviously there is a bit of push back from the utilities in certain areas probably of a project and Solar city going head-to-head in that metering, Hawaii making a change, California as well. How do you think about that metering policies and their effect on maybe the territories you choose to go into, I guess you target for solar expansion? Deb Merril Carter, I think from our perspective we want policies that give customer choice and are definitely against anything that will limit their ability to take advantages of some of these things. And utility has vested interest of their own if they are trying to fight for as well. But we think there is plenty of opportunity for us to focus on the areas where we’re able to affect a customer’s sale in a positive way or how they manage their energy in a positive way. So while we’re probably on the side of Solar City and others just try to ensure that customers have all the options that they can possibly have to be able to be innovative in their home around energy. Carter Driscoll UK business, obviously I think your first target is a residential side and recently began targeting the commercial side, is there any color you can give us in terms of the split of the customers that you mostly added there, I think you’ve gone from 4% to 6% of total in the last couple of quarters? And then remind us again maybe some of the other countries in Continental Europe that might be more favorably exposed to your product offering? Deb Merril We actually started on the commercial side carter. So we took our commercial portal for pricing business customers over there quickly and was able to improve the performance of pricing and delivering price to sales channel over there. So that was the first foray into it, which has great, we cut our teeth, we learned the market, we know we have a lot of great people over there that work for us and make all this happen. So then we went into residential about a year later and residential we’ve actually focus a lot on the online shopping, we just recently started tele-sales and we’re looking at other options for us to be able to get customers. The interesting thing is taking some of the U.S. based things that we’re doing here with smart thermostat, slot bills and things like that and bring them over to the UK is very promising and it’s also very challenging because the regulators there only allow you to have four prices flash products at any given time. So that’s really a challenge for us, so if we sell a one, two and three year product then we — there is a three or four options. So we’re very limited on the number of products. But we are the only one over there who is currently marketing a flat, been getting some attention from a lot of people over there trying to understand what that actually looks like and seeing whether they believed or not. So we think eventually it’s going to take hold and really provides some innovation over there. As far as other expansion, we’re looking at Germany, Netherlands, Japan is the regulating coming up next year we’re looking at that. So we had a lot of things going on, but we’ll kind of approach this in the same way we approached the UK, which is what’s the opportunity, what’s the investment and making sure we have local talent and possibly partnerships in these areas that we can be able to grow efficiently and prudently. Carter Driscoll I am sorry just one housekeeping item, I think you talked about potentially entering year thousands [ph] of solar, I am assuming at fiscal year? Deb Merril Yes. Operator [Operator Instructions] Deb Merril Alright, so if there is no other questions, I want to thank everybody for their time and for your support and Pat, Jay and I and Rebecca would also like give a special thanks to all of the Just Energy family employees in all three countries that we currently have focus working to make this vision happen. So very much appreciate their efforts and appreciate your support and look forward to talking to you next time. Thank you very much. Operator Thank you. 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