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No. 2 residential solar installer Sunrun ( RUN ) could trigger Hawaiian solar growth with a Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) battery-backed storage offering following regulators’ 2015 decision to cut net-metering subsidies, a Credit Suisse analyst said Monday. And despite a bulkier subsidy cut in Nevada that doesn’t grandfather in existing customers, Sunrun will flare on its impressive access to capital, Credit Suisse analyst Patrick Jobin wrote in a research report. Jobin retained an outperform rating and 21 price target on Sunrun stock. Sunrun stock was up a fraction in afternoon trading on the stock market today , while shares of No. 1 installer SolarCity ( SCTY ) were down 1%. IBD’s 21-company Energy-Solar industry group was down nearly 1%, after falling 1.5% Friday. It ranks No. 54 out of 197 groups tracked. Year to date, Sunrun and SolarCity stocks are down a respective 43% and 47%, under-performing the industry group that has fallen 22% on continued volatility in Nevada despite Congress’ late December extension to a key federal subsidy. Still, “industry dynamics continue to favor Sunrun and SolarCity and highlight increasing barriers to entry,” Jobin wrote. “Further, we were impressed with Sunrun’s ability to outmaneuver peers in the capital markets.” Jobin sees a 214% upside to Sunrun stock. Sunrun, SolarCity Curb 2016 Growth In Q4, Sunrun guided to 40% growth in 2016 vs. consensus expectations for 60%-80% growth, echoing SolarCity, which earlier indicated 44% growth vs. traditional annual growth of 80%. But Sunrun and SolarCity differ in their rationale. SolarCity is aiming to become cash flow positive. Sunrun is focusing on cost reductions and maximized returns and, this month, guided to a 15% year-over-year reduction in 2016 for its channel business . Instead, Sunrun now expects to double its direct business over the course of 2016. “The company is on the fastest path to reaching the ‘Holy Grail’ of residential solar leasing companies whereby the third-party capital can cover all upfront costs,” Jobin wrote. Sunrun also unveiled a solar-plus-storage solution coined BrightBox to reinvigorate Hawaiian solar growth, after the state suspended payments to solar customers for excess energy fed back into the grid. The state was at 17% solar penetration when that vote came down. Firms like SunPower ( SPWR ), SolarCity, SolarEdge ( SEDG ) and Sunrun have long worked to make solar storage economical. Without it, utilities must buy the excess energy fed back into the grid. In 2015, however, Nevada and Hawaii cut net-metering payments to solar customers. Within a day, SolarCity and Sunrun said they would exit Nevada, the latter threatening to file suit. Now, Sunrun has managed to reduce its solar storage costs by 50% year over year, Jobin wrote. BrightBox customers are expected to reduce their utility bills by 15%. “The adoption of solar plus storage, if economic, can mitigate the risk in other states if utilities degrade the economics of net-metered energy,” he wrote. And “a solar plus storage solution in Hawaii should allow growth to resume.” In Hawaii, neighborhood constraints have restricted new customers from adopting solar. The BrightBox solution circumvents those restrictions, allowing Sunrun to tap into the remaining 83% of the state without solar. Scalper1 News
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