Scalper1 News
Wall Street bandied SunPower ( SPWR ) stock Thursday after the No. 2 solar company reported forecast-topping Q4 sales and earnings but issued Q1 sales guidance that halved analyst views, which CEO Tom Werner said stemmed from project “drop downs” to yield company 8point3 Energy Partners ( CAFD ). There was a 12% disparity Thursday between the high and low points of SunPower stock. Shares were up as much as 4.7% earlier, but in afternoon trading on the stock market today , SunPower stock was down 4%, near 23. Analysts were forgiving. Credit Suisse analyst Patrick Jobin says that SunPower is “bucking the trend” of solar demand challenges and investor fears of a capital squeeze. Solar is a capital-intense industry, and limited access to capital can strangle growth. “SunPower is bucking the trend and remains in a healthy position with a clean balance sheet and an execution track record that is enabling growth,” Jobin wrote in a research report. He retained his outperform rating and 32 price target on SunPower stock. EBITDA Shift Buoys Q4 For Q4, SunPower reported $1.36 billion in sales ex items and $1.73 earnings per share minus items, up 124% and 563%, respectively, vs. the year-earlier quarter. Both metrics topped the consensus view for $1.27 billion and $1.52. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) surged 347% to $379.9 million. CFO Charles Boynton, on the company’s earnings conference call Wednesday, pointed to a $65 million shift in EBITDA after projects expected to be completed in the current quarter actually wrapped up in Q4. SunPower finished 2015 with $556.5 million EBITDA, up 49%. Sales minus items and EPS ex items came in at $2.6 billion and $2.17, flat and up 63%, respectively, and beating consensus expectations. The EBITDA shift impacted Q1 and 2016 guidance, Boynton said. SunPower lowered 2016 EBITDA guidance by that $65 million, to $450 million-$500 million, and sees $0-$25 million in Q1. For the year, SunPower expects $3.2 billion-$3.4 billion in sales minus items, where analysts had modeled for $3.42 billion. Yieldco Drops Impact Q1 Guide But the Q1 sales-minus-items view for $290 million-$340 million was far short of Wall Street views for $675.7 million. CEO Werner attributed the guidance miss to the timing of project drop-downs to 8point3. SunPower and First Solar ( FSLR ) teamed up to form the yield company last year, a company formed to own assets that produce predictable cash flows. Yieldcos are gaining headway in the solar industry. “We’re building projects in Q1 that we won’t sell to 8point3 until Q3, so we don’t get the revenue and the income until Q3,” Werner told IBD on Thursday. “It’s the timing of the ‘drop down’ of projects to Q3.” Investors are warming to the yieldco idea, Werner says. 8point3 made its IPO in June, pricing shares at 21. It now trades near 16%, up 3% Thursday afternoon. “Think of it (the yieldco) as strategic and the core of what we do,” Werner said. During Q4, SunPower dropped down its first project to 8point3 — a 20-megawatt project for California’s Kern County School District consisting of 27 carports at various locations across the district, according to a SunPower press release. And the 135-MW Quinto solar project in central California is now also generating energy for 8point3. Power Plants To Fuel Growth In 2016, Werner expects 60% of sales to stem from SunPower’s utility business. In Q4, power plants comprised 77% of SunPower’s sales. Residential and commercial accounted for 13% and 10%, respectively. SunPower’s vertical overlap and geographic expansion will help growth, Werner told IBD. On the call, he emphasized SunPower’s investment in China and the U.S. China and the U.S. are at opposing ends of the solar spectrum. China, Chile and South Africa have heavy investments in utility-scale solar. The U.S., Japan and Europe are more focused on rooftop solar. In the U.S., extension of a key subsidy, the Investment Tax Credit on solar, will help the rooftop business boom in 2016, Werner says. And companies like Apple ( AAPL ) and Stanford University have created their own hybrid — an offsite utility with a direct access line, Werner said. He also sees growth stemming from SunPower’s Helix platform, which aims to cut installation time. Werner likened it to a solar system for a modular home; the cables are precut, and a roofing company merely snaps them together. “You don’t need all the trade labor,” he said. “You can have a roofing company install a system and then just a little electrician time. It’s five to 10 times faster.” SunPower continues to partner with Tesla ( TSLA ), Sunverge and Stem for solar storage solutions. Two homebuilders in California and Germany are offering it as a standard option, Werner said. Scalper1 News
Scalper1 News