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Summary Short-term, headwinds exist related to heavy capital expenditures and poor weather forecasts. Long-term, spending should be down and income up, freeing up cash flow for shareholder returns. Two natural gas-fired plant openings, one in 2016 and one in 2020, will be key to company success. Portland General Electric Company (NYSE: POR ) is an electric utility that operates wholly within the state of Oregon, providing power to nearly 50% of Oregonians with over 3,400MW of available energy generation. Primarily serving residential customers, the company’s bottom line has been bolstered by domestic migration to the Northwest. From 2010-2014, the Portland metropolitan area added over one hundred thousand new residents – an annual growth rate of 5.2%. This strong local population growth has helped bolster earnings results and shareholder returns, with investors reaping 100% in total return over the past five years, roughly double the return of utilities indexes. Does Portland General have more room to run or has the utility run its course? Future Is Natural Gas, Profit Is With Hydro * Portland General September 2015 Investor Presentation Portland General has a diverse portfolio of power generation. Including purchased power, 36% of power was created from renewable sources and an additional 25% generated from cleaner-burning natural gas. This is going to change drastically over the next few years, however. Given Oregon’s progressive nature, it wasn’t a surprise to see Oregon residents campaign for clean power. Management quickly bowed to customer and political pressure, leading to plans for the elimination of all coal-fired generation in Oregon. Under the Boardman 2020 plan, Portland General will close its 518MW Boardman coal asset by 2020, instead building a natural gas facility on the site. This will be a costly project, but doing so will save the company $470M in required upgrades to meet emissions guidelines had the plant remained open until 2040 as previously guided. The risk here is that the new plant is delayed and is not completed by the time Boardman is scheduled to be mothballed. Portland General relies heavily on the Boardman plant to produce electricity as coal-fired generation is in many cases the cheapest and most reliable asset the company has. Coal represents 16.5% of available resource capacity but generated 28% of the load in 2015 and is run at capacity nearly constantly. The company’s peak power load in 2014 was 3866MW which was already above currently available company-owned power generation and the shortfall from the Boardman plant closure could force Portland General to increase purchased power during peak times. While these costs will inevitably be passed along to the consumer because of Portland General’s clauses with the Public Utility Commission of Oregon, higher prices could still cause a slack in energy demand and bad press is never good for the bottom line. The company’s Carty Generating Station, slated to be completed in 2017, will help cover future shortfalls built is imperative for investors to track how the new Boardman facility’s construction is proceeding over the coming years. This risk is noted in the company’s 10-K: “Beyond 2018, PGE may need additional resources in order to meet the 2020 and 2025 RPS requirements and to replace energy from Boardman, which is scheduled to cease coal-fired operations in 2020. Additional post-2018 actions may also be needed to offset expiring power purchase agreements and to back-up variable energy resources, such as wind generation facilities. These actions are expected to be identified in a future IRP. PGE expects to file its next IRP with the OPUC in 2016.” – Portland General, 2014 Form 10-K From a profitability standpoint, the key to the company’s energy costs however is hydroelectricity. Hydroelectric generation can be the lowest cost source of generation for Portland General if conditions are right. The state of the Deschutes and Clackamas Rivers (tributaries of the Columbia River) is key. Both of these rivers’ headwaters are fed by the Cascades, a mountain range spanning from Canada to Northern California. In general, the greater the snowfall, the better the power generation is for hydroelectric when the spring thaw comes. Unfortunately for Portland General shareholders and highlighted in a recent prior SeekingAlpha article by Tristan Brown , weather models show lower than average snowfall likely for Oregon, along with a more mild winter in regards to temperature. This presents a double whammy for Portland General in the form of higher energy costs and lower revenue in the winter months during which customers typically draw around 10-15% more electricity than in the summer months. Past Operating Results (click to enlarge) Operating results have been steady and rather uneventful over the past five years (my own estimates used for the back half of 2015). Of note however is depreciation/amortization costs have been increasing dramatically due to the large capital investments the company has been making over the past five years, developing relatively more expensive wind/solar farms and the costs associated with the Carty Generating Station. Overall, this is steady-as-she-goes results that utility investors like to see. (click to enlarge) Frequent readers of my utilities research know that I look for solid coverage of capital expenditures and dividends from operating cash flow for mature utilities. Starting in 2013, Portland General reversed course and begun stepping up the leverage as capital expenditures rose for the natural gas plants at the Carty Generation Station and the old Boardman location. To fund this, Portland General issued $865M in long-term debt in 2013/2014 and also issued $67M worth of common stock in 2013 to cover the cash flow gaps. While this picture looks currently worrisome, it should moderate over time. Capital expenditures are expected to fall from the $600-650M range in 2015 to $289M in 2019, back to levels we saw in 2011/2012 when cash flow was positive. Unfortunately, Portland General won’t see much recovery in the form of increased rates because of offsetting factors, based on the overall breakdown of the 2016 rate case filing: (click to enlarge) Conclusion Portland General saw a little bit more renewed interest after the 7% dividend increase in 2015, well in excess of 2% annual growth from 2009-2014. In regards to operating income, however, 2016 looks unclear given the poor weather outlook. Earnings per share are likely to be flat to down in 2015/2016, so I would not expect a repeat of that hefty 2014 dividend increase. Before entering a position, I would like to see the valuation come down along with more visibility on completion of the two big natural gas facilities (early 2016 should give excellent insight into schedule on Carty Generation Station). Overall, however, shares are quite fairly valued given the long-term prospects of the region. Being long won’t hurt you. Scalper1 News
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