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Executives Ignacio Galan – Chairman & CEO Jose Sainz – CFO Francisco Martinez Corcoles – Business CEO Analysts Martin Young – RBC Carolina Dores – Morgan Stanley Javier Garrido – JPMorgan Securities Stefano Bezzato – Credit Suisse Iberdrola SA ( OTCPK:IBDRY ) Q4 2014 Earnings Conference Call February 18, 2015 3:30 AM ET Unidentified Company Representative Ladies and gentlemen, first of all, thank you for joining us this morning. It is with great pleasure that we welcome you in the presentation of 2014 results. As usual, this event is structured in a similar manner to our previous results presentation. First, we will begin with an overview of the results and the main developments during the period given by both our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ignacio Galan, and our CFO, Mr. Jose Sainz. We also have with them, as usual, Mr. Francisco Martinez Corcoles, our Business CEO. At the end of the presentation we will then move onto the Q&A session. For this part we will first take questions from the room, followed by queries submitted via the web, and finally those with questions on the phone. However, we kindly request for you to avoid asking questions on the phone if possible due to the frequent poor sound quality. So please make your queries only through that channel as a last resort. We would expect that the event will last no more than 75 minutes, hoping that you find the presentation both useful and informative. Now without further ado, I will hand over to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ignacio Galan. Thank you very much again. Please, Mr. Chairman. Ignacio Galan So good morning, everyone. First I would like to thank you for attending this results presentation, either those who are here in London or through the webcast. We always appreciate very much your interest in our company. I will try to make a summary a bit on our Outlook 2014-2016, which was presented to the market and to yourselves a year ago. Since that time, Iberdrola has set the path to achieve the objectives in this period and we have already closed 2014 delivering results above the guidance. The progressive improvement of operating performance along the year has boosted EBITDA growth to 3.1%, reaching almost €7 billion. The positive also contribution from all geographies has allowed us to offset the lower result of pain in Spain due to negative impact of the regulatory measures that have been imposed in the last year. Net investment over the period amounted to €2.8 billion, reinforcing our strategic geographic diversification and our focus on regulated businesses, two main strategic pillars of our company. Regarding the balance sheet, the management of Iberdrola has reduced net debt by nearly €1.5 billion to €25.3 billion. As a consequence, the net debt to EBITDA ratio improved to 3.6 from 4 times in 2013, moving close to our 2016 goals and targets. Finally, net profit amounts €2.3 billion after having recorded non-recurring expenses of €128 million related to a new efficiency plan implementation, mostly in Spain, which will provide cost saving from this year on. These results allow us to maintain our commitment to shareholders and distribute the remuneration of at least €0.27 per share, which will be proposed for approval to the next Annual General Meeting. Let me start with a brief review of the main operating highlights of the period by country. We show how we’re implementing the strategic vision behind Outlook 2014-2016. United Kingdom, we already have defined rate cases, approved up to 2021 in transmission and until 2023 in distribution, which a total investment allowance of more than €8.2 billion over the period. In renewables, our first offshore wind power plant, West of Duddon Sands, is already in operation. And in Germany, the construction of our second Wilkinger offshore farm is underway. In regard of generation businesses in UK, all the existing facilities we offer in the capacity mechanism option have been awarded, totally 2261 megawatts. And in the retail businesses we have implemented the new IT system, which is already delivering efficiencies now. In United States, significant progress has also been made in networks. The new rate case has been approved in Maine for one year. Our high-voltage line out to Canada has been completed and the new projects to extend the New York transmission system are underway. In renewables, we finished the construction of the Baffin wind farm with 200 megawatts. And we have also qualified another 600 megawatt of the new project to be built up to 2016 under the new PTC extension approved by the end of last year. Finally, at the corporate level, we have completed the integration project to optimize the company structure in United States. In Mexico, we’ve already taken advantage of the new opportunities provided by the energy reform. Two CCGTs and two cogeneration plants are under construction and we’re already signing contracts with private consumers. In renewables, we’ve also two wind farms under construction and a pipeline of more than 100 megawatts to be built in the new year — in the next years. Positive news also comes from Brazil, where the drought impact has been mitigated for the tariff increases. Moreover, forward financial conditions had been agreed for the return regulatory asset base in falling tariff reviews. This current regulatory framework allows us to keep investing in the distribution activity in order to respond to the increasing demand and extend the access of electricity supply. In renewables, we have been awarded two auctions to build six new wind farms. Furthermore, the 1.8 gigawatt Teles Pires hydro power plant has been completed. Finally, in Spain, the structural tariff deficit has been solved and now only temporary adjustments are pending. In networks, we have already achieved a record quality of supply and we have further progressed in efficiencies by implementing the new program to continue optimizing our businesses, adapting our activity to the condition established in the new regulatory framework. Moving back to 2014 results, EBITDA amounted €6.965 billion, 5.5% above of our guidance, in growing 3.3% versus the previous years, as I mentioned before. All regions, except Spain, have positively contributed to this growth, offsetting the impact of the Spanish regulatory measures. By businesses, generation supply has a very good performance with an increase of 15.4% in EBITDA, almost reaching €2.3 billion. The higher production with more efficient generation mix, the better performance of the power plant and the normalization of retail margins in the United Kingdom have been the main drivers of our growth. In networks, EBITDA grew 5.6% to €3.5 billion. The return on investment and the good operating performance in UK and Brazil explain this improvement. Finally, the renewable business has been heavily impacted by regulatory measures in Spain, as I mentioned before as well, where EBITDA has fallen 37% versus previous year. Thanks to the contribution of Latin America 65% plus, United Kingdom 40% plus, and United States 10% plus, the drop in EBITDA for the global renewable business has been reduced to only 11.7% and amounts €1.3 billion. In 2014 we have invested €2.8 billion, 30% over 2013. Following our strategic pillars, these were mainly focuses in regulated activities within a stable and attractive framework, which accounted 87% of the total. By countries, United Kingdom attracted 46% of the total, followed by United States with 24% and Spain 18%. Our investment in Mexico and Brazil increased 65% to almost €330 million. If we include our proportion in Neoenergia, which, as you know, we’re not consolidating according to new IFRS standards, investment in Latin America amounts to almost €700 million, representing 20% of the total. Regarding cash flow, all our businesses are generating cash and still net investment, in-line with our strategic guidelines. The operating cash flow amounts €5.5 billion and after deducting investment, this figure is €2.6 billion. Thanks to the positive free cash flow generation and the progress in the divestment program, we have continued improving our already sound financial position. Regarding the divestment program, disposals alone in 2014 have exceeded €1 billion, thus increasing the accumulated amount in 2012 to €2.2 billion, close to our €2.5 billion target to be reached by the end of 2016. Net debt has been reduced almost €1.5 billion to €25.3 billion, not considering the amount in cash paid in December regarding the [inaudible] executed in 2014. We normally used to pay in January instead of December. And our main financial ratios have been improved. We’re now closer to the target set for 2016. This has been possible thanks to our active financial management along the year. We have issues amounting to more than €1.8 billion under favorable market conditions, which proceeds has been used to buy back all older notes with a proposal of reducing the cost of the debt and increasing its maturity. We have also reconfigured syndicated credit facilities, amounting to €7 billion, in order to improve their conditions, thus optimizing liquidity while reducing the cost while maintaining more than 30 months of financial need cover. Furthermore, we have been able to assign €1.2 billion of the credit rights for 2013 tariff deficit to a group of financial institutions with the corresponding reduction in the net debt. With all these operations, total costs associated to the debt has been reduced 18 basis points to 4.35%. And the company has no new financial needs for 2015. Average maturity date has been also increased to 6.3 years. All these highlight that Iberdrola has a sound business model, able to deliver operational growth even under unfavorable conditions for our high-quality portfolio of assets, which are balanced geographically with a balanced geographical diversification, an active financial management and a strong focus on operational efficiency. Our model, as we have demonstrated over the years, offers an attractive and sustainable return to all our shareholders. As evidence of this, total shareholders’ return delivered by Iberdrola reached 30.1% over the last year, above all the main European industry competitors and referenced indices, 11 percent points higher than the Eurostoxx Utilities and 20.6 percentage points above the IBEX 35. On the other hand, I would like to highlight the contribution of Iberdrola to the society. In 2014 our total direct contribution to tax and fiscal authorities in the countries in which we’re present exceed €5.5 billion. This figure includes our taxes, which amount €2.4 billion and represent almost half of the total profit before taxation and those collected by Iberdrola to be paid for the fiscal authorities. Moreover as a utility company, our activity has a significant impact on the economy as a whole. According to estimates by Analistas Financieros Internacionales, including indirect inducted impact, our total contribution to tax and fiscal authorities around the world amounts almost €10.5 billion. At the same time, Iberdrola is strong committed to the creation of the stable and quality employment. During 2014, 1,800 new employees were hired by the company for a total workforce of 27,500 people. Additionally, 700 apprentices join us along the year. And as we truly believe that employees are the key for our success of the company, we provide them with more than 40 hours of training per person during the year and here again, Iberdrola accessing engine for growth in the different markets where it operates. According to the referred estimate by Analistas Financieros Internacionales, Iberdrola Group contributes to the generation of 350,000 jobs around the world. Additionally, we’re at the forefront of the work-and-life balance measures. As proof of this is the certificate as family responsible company we have received in Spain and the recognition of best company to work in Brazil. As an impact of this job creation is due to the purchases of goods and services of €5.4 billion last year to more than 18,000 suppliers. Let me underline the high quality of most of our contractors. 93% of them have A or — A-plus or A sustainability level. 92% has been certified on the ISO quality and environmental management system or OHSAS health and safety system. In terms of corporate governance, we have been implementing measures to increase geographic diversification independence among our Board members. In this sense, seven national origins are represented in our 14 Board directors. 80% of them are independent. In addition, all members of audit and risk supervision committee come from countries other than Spain. Beside we’re among European companies with the largest number of women in the Board, 36%. And all the committees of the Board have chaired today with very well-qualified women. Thanks to our effort in this matter, last year Iberdrola was selected for the second time the Spanish company with the best corporate governance practices according to the World Finance. Additionally we have been ranked number one in terms of fiscal transparency among all IBEX 35 companies. Let me now conclude with a reference to the delivery of our main targets set in the Outlook 2014-2016. In 2014, Iberdrola has obtained better results than those previously forecasted during the day of investors. Concerning our profit and loss account, EBITDA was 5.5% higher and net profit improved 1.1% better than our guidance after recording the non-recurring expenses of €128 million already mentioned. With all this impact, EBITDA would have increased 7.5% and net profit 5.5%. As regards balance sheet strength, net debt reduction is on track to our €25 billion target to reach by 2016. In-line with that, the net debt/EBITDA ratio has improved to 3.6 times, closer to 3.5 times target by 2016. Finally, we have reaffirmed out commitment to maintain our shareholder remuneration of at least €0.27 per share. Looking ahead to year 2015, we expect EBITDA to grow above 2014, thanks to the positive contribution of the networks and renewable businesses. Our investment regulated activities, especially in UK and United States, together with efficiency measures undertaken will have a positive impact under the assumption of an average wind resource. The positive evolution of EBITDA together with an active financial management should drive an increase in recurring net profit versus last year. As regards the balance sheet, we expect to further reduce net debt and the net debt/EBITDA ratio close target set by 2016. Finally, the results allow us to reinforce our commitment with shareholders announced in the Outlook 2014-2016. Firstly, we will maintain a shareholder remuneration floor of €0.27 per share through a scrip dividend to guarantee an [inaudible] and sustainable yield. To avoid the dilution effect, the Board of Directors will propose to the Annual General Meeting the cancellation of 148.5 million shares. This capital reduction will represent 2.3%, will be instrumented through the redemption of the existing 2.1 treasury stock and the additional treasury shares buyback program, approved yesterday by the Board of Directors, representing a maximum of 0.2% of the total capital. In order to reach a final total number of shares of the permanent value of €6.240 billion. With that, I finish my presentation. And now I hand over to Pepe, who will present the Group results in further detail. Jose Sainz Thank you, Chairman. Good morning. I’m going to go through the P&L quickly as always. As you know, both the 2014 and 2013 results are reported in IFRS 11 that accounts the stake at or below 50% using the equity method. The deconsolidation of Neoenergia is the main impact at the EBITDA level but compensated at the net profit. The comparison versus 2013 also is positively affected at the EBIT level due to the asset impairments that we carried out last year and negatively at the tax level due to 2013 balance sheet revaluation. Exchange rates have had a small positive impact in our results. The pound has appreciated around 5% against the euro. But, as you know, we follow the trading average so the dollar has fallen 0.2% and the real has fallen 9% against the euro. So I would say that the impact at the EBITDA level would be around €50 million and at the net profit level would be only around €10 million. So this means that in 2015 we will see a net positive impact from the dollar and the pound revaluation against the euro. Revenues fell 3.4% to €30 billion, while procurements dropped a greater amount, 7.5%, to €7.8 billion due to the lower cost of our production mix. Consequently the gross margin grew 3.4% to €12.2 billion, improving from the 0.5% growth seen in the first nine months. Reported net operating expenses rose 4.8% to €3.6 billion, affected mainly by an efficiency plan launched on the fourth quarter that has allowed us to reduce redundancies and will have a positive impact in the next years. The cost of this plan that we have launched in the fourth quarter has been €128 million, impacting personnel expenses that grew 6.8%. Excluding this plan, personnel expenses would have been flat on the year. Reported net external services grew 2.8%. The growth is mainly due to the UK business, linked to the increase of capacity in renewables and cost associated to the new IT system that the Chairman has commented in retail, where we had some implementation difficulties that are now being resolved and also due to marketing campaigns and consultancy services in the ED1 filing. This counts in the non-recurring impact of efficiency measures, as I commented you, €128 million, whose benefits will crystallize in the coming years. Net operating expenses rose 2.3 points below the gross margin. So the operating efficiency improved from 29.4% to 28.8%. I’m talking about the recurrent operating efficiency. Levies grew 1.5% versus the 9.5 fall at September due to the accounting of the social bonds in Spain of €66 million and the higher taxes in the UK, around €45 million. These negative have been partially compensated by the favorable €130 million court ruling in Spain that we accounted in Q2, as we have already explained in previous quarterly reports. Reported EBITDA for networks grew 5.6% to €3.5 billion, improving from the 0.5% fall at September, especially with a positive performance in all geographics, except Spain, and especially in Brazil due to the accounting changes approved in Q4 that allows the recognition of regulatory assets to be collected in the future. Exchange rate improvement has also helped in the UK, where it has had €52 million, has been flat in the United States and negative in Brazil, taking away around €27 million. In Spain, the EBITDA fell 0.8% to €1.4 billion as a consequence of the efficiency plan costs that have impacted networks and, as I mentioned, accounted in Q4 because we have had a slight higher gross margin. In the UK, EBITDA grew 3.7% to £827 million as a result of the 6.1% increase in gross margin due to the higher asset base and a consequence of greater investments. There is also an 8.1% increase in net operating expenses with higher personnel cost and external services linked to the ED1 process, as I have commented. In the U.S., EBITDA is up 7.7% to slightly over $1 billion with gross margin growing 2.2%. Higher revenues as a result of the rate cases and the contribution of the main-line, in addition to the 6.1% improvement in net operating expenses are the main business drivers. In Elektro, the EBITDA grew 36.5% to BRL935 million, improving from the fall at September due to the accounting changes in 2014 — at the end of 2014 as we’re accounting for the or registering the regulatory assets to be collected in subsequent years. All of this had a net positive impact of around BRL200 million and we have been also helped by the 38% increase in tariffs in August. As you remember, Elektro had an increase in August. Net operating expenses grew 10.7%. In generation and supply, EBITDA is up 15% to €2.3 billion due to a strong operational performance with a 6.7% higher gross margin and helped by the reduction in levies due to the court’s ruling I mentioned before. In Spain, the EBITDA reached €1.5 billion with a 5% increase in gross margin to the 8.2% higher output held by the hydro production and the nuclear production. And this higher output and lower cost have compensated slightly lower prices in Spain. The 9.4% lower levies offset the 6.2% increase in net operating expenses following the efficiency measures that I have commented. In the UK, the liberalized EBITDA was £368 million, recovering for the weak 2013 as plants performed better and retail margins normalized, although still a low. As a matter of fact, the EBIT-over-sales ratio of the business as a whole is only at 1.3%. In Mexico, EBITDA grew 0.6% to $465 million, improving from the fall in September. As we commented, the negative one-off impact associated with the renegotiation of private contracts in the first half has been finally reversed by better margins and good operational performance. Renewables, as the Chairman commented, fell — the EBITDA fell 11.7% to €1.3 billion driven by Spain with a 37% fall or €247 million, affected by the remuneration cost from the Spanish regulatory measures. The positive contribution of the rest of geographies partially compensates the fall in Spain. As a consequence of this, now is the U.S. the largest contributor to the EBITDA in renewables with 37%. Gross margin fell 7.6% and net operating expenses increased 5.6%, especially due to the new offshore operational capacity that has just come in-line. In general in renewables, the operating capacity was up 3.3%. The average load factor fell 0.6 points to 27.2% and the output decreased slightly. Average price dropped 8% due to the Spanish market. In the U.S. specifically, the EBITDA grew 10.7% to $658 million, thanks to the 0.9% output increase and the trading profits that we took advantage due to the weather conditions in the first quarter. In Spain, the EBITDA was down €247 million to €421 million with a €339 million negative impact from the new regulation in 2014 versus and €122 million impact that we already accounted in 2013. In addition, prices and load factor decreased compared with the extraordinary wind conditions of 2013, although in general the output was solid. In the UK, the EBITDA grew 8.7% to £214 million with higher average capacity offsetting the lower onshore load factor. West of Duddon Sands offshore wind farm has contributed to £34 million. In Latin America, EBITDA rose 65% to €71 million thanks to a 28% higher average capacity in Mexico and Brazil and a 45% increase in output. In the rest of the world, EBITDA decreased 33% to €73 million due to the sale of 184 megawatts of our Polish wind farms in 2013. EBIT reached €3.940 billion, €1.7 billion more than in 2013, which included €1.8 billion of gross asset impairments, mainly related to the U.S. gas and renewables. Depreciation and amortization grew €149 million, mainly driven by the UK with the addition of operating capacities in renewable and higher investments in systems and in networks. We have also taken advantage of the strong operating results to make over €100 million of non-recurrent provisions in renewables and network business. Net financial costs improved 12% to €1.1 billion due to the €132 million lower debt-related costs thanks to a 7% decrease in average net debt and an average total net cost improvement of 18 basis points, thanks to the float and interest debt increase. There is also a €96 million of gross capital gains from the sale of our stake in EDP, partially compensated by the lack of dividend collected from EDP, the lower contribution of the tariff deficit resolution due to the lower yearly average and the lower FX derivative gains as this year the euro has depreciated against our basket of currencies versus 2013. Equity contribution fell 34% due to the €70 million negative impact in Neoenergia and €31 million of Garona, partially compensated by the revaluation of our stake in Gamesa. Non-recurrent results added €214 million to our profit before taxes due to capital gains in the sale of a nuclear JV in the UK, our stake in Bahia de Bizkaia and Itapebi. Reported net profit fell 9.5% to €2.327 million as a consequence of the higher tax rate in 2014 versus 2013 that included €1.5 billion of tax gains in Spain due to asset revaluation and one-off impacts of lower corporate tax in the UK. Going quickly through the financing, by the end of 2014, Iberdrola regulatory receivables pending to collect was €386 million following the sale of the 2013 tariff deficit in December. At year end we had €224 million of generation taxes pending to be collected and €162 million of 2014 temporary tariff deficit to be collected during 2015. The financial strength of the Group, as the Chairman said, continues to improve with a €1.2 billion reduction in our reported net debt to €25.6 billion, even considering, and this is very important, a €978 million negative exchange rate impact due to the euro depreciation against our basket of currencies at year end. Not on the trailing average of the year, as you can see in our results, basically the impact of our currencies has been slightly positive but, at the net debt, it has had an impact of also almost €1 billion that will be reversed or will be normalized during 2015. Pro-forma net debt including tariff deficit totals €25.3 billion excluding the 2014 interim dividend paid in December, when it is usually paid in January. Iberdrola has improved its pro-forma leverage ratio from 43% to 41% in one year. Despite the fact that I commented, that the FX exchange penalized our solvency ratios, as you can see in the right slide of — in the right part of the slide, 2014 ratios have improved during the year strongly. The interim scrip dividend paid in December 2014 obviously affects the year-end financial metrics, so we have put the financial metrics with and without the interim dividend. But excluding this impact, the net debt to EBITDA, as the Chairman has said, is around 3.6 times, which is close to the 3.5 times target. FFO over net debt close at 21.5%, up from 20.8% one year ago and our retained cash flow over net debt ended at 18.6% versus 17.5% one year ago. As the Chairman also has said, during 2014 the Group has continued to adapt the level of liquidity to focus on improving our financial cost. As of today, Iberdrola has available liquidity of around €9 billion, covering more than 30 months of financial needs, even in a stressed scenario and there are no new net financing needs for 2015, although we will continue active liability management that helped us to reduce our cost of debt and increase our average debt maturity to 6.3 years in 2014. So thank you very much. Question-and-Answer Session A – Unidentified Company Representative Okay. I suspect that we’re going to start with the questions from the room. Martin Young, the first one. Then Carolina. Martin Young It’s Martin Young from RBC. Two questions, your strategy is very clear. You intend to increase the weight of regulated activities in the mix of the business. That has led to you being connected with a number of acquisition opportunities, notably in the U.S. Just wondered if you could give us some play there on where we stand with your aspirations to expand regulated activities outside of Europe. And then secondly, and please feel free to not answer the question if it’s too early in the day, but the CMA in the UK has come out with some initial observations about the supply market this morning, and I just wondered what Iberdrola/Scottish Power’s response to the initial findings are. Thank you. Ignacio Galan So I think on the first one, thank you very much for already saying that we have so clear the strategy. I think we have clear strategy, it’s true. So we would like to put all our investments clearly on the areas, geographical areas in business which are stable, predictable and with reasonable returns. That is already being provided by networks. It’s provided in certain countries by renewables, or in certain countries by power generation with PPAs, long-term PPAs. That’s clear. So relating to United States, I think as we mentioned, I think we have already in this moment completed the rate case in Maine and we have already completed the transmission line with this already to connect Canada with Massachusetts. We’re now in progress for another transmission, important transmission, which will allow Maine as well not only to bring electricity from their other neighbors, but as well to be able to export certain electricity produced potentially by wind farms they are planning to build in the state. In New York now we’re already involved in two projects, transmission projects, to inject electricity into New York city. One is the project called Transco, which is a joint venture with the main companies of the region. In another one, which is a stake, is going to take probably a bit longer, which is a high-voltage DC line, which should come as well from the neighbor state into New York city, across the motorways which is coming to New York. It’s a project with over $1b investment, which we’re involved on that one as well. But I think it’s not for immediately, but I think we’re working to push them on. Apart from that, I think this year we will start with the rate case on New York, so which we expect to have already as well as we did in last time for five years. We would try to negotiate off an extension as well for WR, which would allow us to have already clarity in this one. We have to be to take into consideration and still the needs of New England of investment in network existed very high. Their politicians are very concerned about what is happening any time which appear the storms. Those days they are suffering the consequences of the storms. Even this idea is not very bad because accordingly I was last week there in Maine and they said, the snow is dry. So for those what we’re familiar with, we have not so much snow, we’re not distinguishing which of the dry snow and the wet snow. It seemed the bad one is the wet one, the dry one is not so bad. Anyway, this already had some consequences. So altogether it means there are a lot of chances in this area to do much more things. And I think that is what we’re working at this particular moment. The CMA analysis, the Financial Director was commenting that in terms of returns, we’re obtaining in the business in this country, in Britain, power generation and retail 2013. We have negative EBIT and last year was already 1.3%, I think you mentioned 1.3% EBIT margin. I think with 1.3% EBIT margin, the only thing could happen is the thing can be improved. Because I think with 1.3% margin, it’s difficult to stand, to build new power plants and to already provide the energy needs that this country requires. So I think that is our case, I don’t know the rest of the companies, but I suppose they are not much different. I think in certain cases when they’re talking about margin, they talk about gross margin. But I think behind gross margin they know the cost we have to be contemplating. I think in our particular case EBIT margin last year in Britain was 1.3%. Try not to worry, previous year, it was negative EBIT in this country in power generation. Fortunately, 18% of our business in this country is not related with power generation in every way. So most of its as regulated activities, as you know, which is transmission, distribution and renewables. Carolina Dores Carolina Dores from Morgan Stanley. I have two questions. First one, you’re at your net debt targets for 2016. Already, your results are better than you have guided for. I think you are very comfortable by meeting guidance in 2016. So how are you thinking about capital redeployments? Do you think that 2015 could be the year when you conceded dividends growing modestly? Or you think for the next 12 months you more focus on looking at your growth options being in the U.S. or Mexico, which seem to be your core focus? And my second question, it’s on the €130 million — €128 million provisions that you’ve done this year. What is the benefit on earnings that you expect will have from this investment done in 2014? Ignacio Galan So related to 2015, I think we’re in February. We’re expecting therefore an Investor Day by October. So I think as most as I can say in February, is what I was saying. It’s how I’ve foreseen the year. I’ve foreseen the year in power regeneration retail to normalize the condition. Last year was very, especially here in terms of hydro production, in wind production with lower prices. This year, the prices are more normalized and the pricing is more normalized. That is what I was putting in my slide. We’re seeing better performance in terms of networks and in terms of renewables. And we know that because the investment we have already made and because of the efficiency measure we take out over the year. So this €120 million is a reduction in personnel of the range of 400, 500 people, which have already a positive effect in the accounts of the year in the range of €30 million. So which I think is a payback on the range of three years or something else. Can we face another one? So I think that is the thing. So, I think, what I can say today, how we’re foreseeing 2015 today is that altogether we’re going to have a better year in terms of EBITDA. So we’re seeing a year, and now we cannot already, talking about these extraordinary things with non-recurring items we can already have incurred the year. So that’s why we talk about recurring net profit. So seeing the EBITDA can be better than last year with today [inaudible]. And we expect the recurring net profit as well will be better than last year. And we cannot already foresee what sort of extraordinary items can already affect to the profit and loss account. But I think in terms of recurrent EBITDA, in terms of net profit we’re seeing already a better year than previous year because of these things I mentioned. And the more investment, and as well, the help in certain cases of the rate of exchange, so as well is helping the U.S. dollar rates, etc., etc. Altogether, we’re seeing today those things. I think who had the opportunity across the year, across the quarters, to be already seeing how that, let’s say, outlook that you can see today. If that is we’re consolidating or that is already improving or is not — whatever changes could happen. But we’re already, let’s say, today optimistic about how it’s going to perform this year. That is what we say today and across the year, we will see if that is more or less optimistic, what we’re seeing today. Unidentified Company Representative [Technical Difficulty]. And then Javier Garrido, and afterwards, Stefano. Unidentified Analyst I just have one question. It’s about the UK. I’m trying to understand EBITDA in power generation. Apparently you have two numbers here. In the press release it’s 456 and the presentation it’s 368. I guess it’s a typo. If I stick to the 456, it’s quite remarkable improvement compared to last year. And you have mentioned improvement in supply margins and normalization in power generation. But I would like to understand it better, because I see combined cycles production down 12%, coal down 6%, deteriorating clean spa spread. Is that normalization coming on from ancillary services? Just any explanation, thanks. Jose Sainz The difference is that one is expressed in euros and the other is in pounds. So £250 — it’s million pounds, while €400 plus is euros. That is the main change, no? Unidentified Company Representative Javier Garrido. And afterwards, Stefano from Credit Suisse. Javier Garrido A couple of questions, firstly, on 2015 guidance, I understand that you don’t want to be more precise, but just to be clear, would you still be looking for EBITDA growth with stable currencies? If we were to eliminate the benefit of the currency appreciation, would you still be seeing EBITDA growth in 2015? And then the second question is on the outlook for the dividend. Now, as you have said, net recurrent income is starting to increase, should start increasing in 2015. When or where would you start to feel comfortable to discuss dividend increases, after having been able to sustain the dividend in a very difficult period? When do you think — or what is the level of profitability that you will need to see in Iberdrola to start to consider increasing the dividend? Thank you. Ignacio Galan I think the second question is very simple. I think we have already, now we’re already pay out on the round of 70%, I think we have been already talking with goal like to normalize this leverage of around 60% to 65%, something else. So it means we need to grow more in terms of net profits in order to increase that one. But apart from that, I think we have another couple of goals, or targets. Therefore, the fixed one is the debt, and the debt/EBITDA ratio. So I think in the moment we achieve the debt and the EBITDA ratio in the net profit is enough to start reducing this level of payout. I think we will consider that is the time for increasing the one. Nevertheless, I think the yield which we’re already paying today, and stability, then we can already offer toward another one. I think we can say something in Iberdrola, we see Iberdrola equal of predictability and stability. In a year of tremendous surprise on the regulatory field we suffered during 2013 and 2014 has been able to maintain our dividend. We have been able to maintain or improve our financial solidity, and that is what is important. So I think we will not — we consider then the shareholders, it’s already evaluating quite a lot about predictability and stability. We’re not already with the rationable yield we’re offering today, which I think is very good. It’s not the same thing companies who already know such a predictability and stability, which are offering already yields, which in very many cases, nobody knows what is going to come and companies, we’re already the most trading and systematically we’re already fulfilling what we’re saying. And I think we’re fulfilling what they are saying because we’re precisely this strategic model which is already this geographically based diversification. This already business mix, which are already allowed to us, to have ready our let’s say even in the very negative circumstances we have been living during 2013 and 2014 with certain dramatic regulatory changes. We have been able almost to serve globally. The result, even in one country, we’re relieving suffering because of those things that is what we’re really foreseeing, and that is what we offer. So in terms of 2015, I think — I insist, so I’ll be delighted to be able to give more detail. But I think we’re in February, and I think we’re depending on a lot of things during the next 10 months. So I think today, the most I can say then, I’m optimistic about the this year, I’m optimistic in terms of EBITDA, I’m optimistic in terms of recording net profits. But it’s 10 months to come. In 10 months to come, I think — I don’t know what is going to be the rainfall, how the wind is going to perform, what is going to be the result of the regulatory negotiation. We’re on the way. We don’t know what is going to happen with — except the drought in Brazil, so it’s very many things. So altogether we’re seeing with our risk analysis, what I can say is our risk analysis gave us confidence that we’re going to have a better year than the previous year, that is the most I can already say today, altogether, in all the areas. I think in a couple of months we will meet ourselves again. We will see the results of the first quarter. That is what I say today. It corresponds or is improving or is not improving. In six months we will meet again, so we will be seeing. I was telling you last year that probably the result of this year will be, we start from an EBITDA, we were seeing negative, we were systematically increasing EBITDA growth month after month, quarter after quarter. And I was telling you that probably we will be in the range of the 3% increase in EBITDA. It was 3.1%, so — but I think everyone know that after the results of the first half, so I think I wouldn’t say that in February. Okay? Unidentified Company Representative Stefano, and then you, sorry. Stefano Bezzato Stefano Bezzato, Credit Suisse. Three questions, if I may, the first one on your views, your expectation on the CO2 market reform which is currently ongoing at EU level. The second one, you mentioned the drought in Brazil. What’s your current assessment of the risk of power rationing? And could this jeopardize your targets for this year in terms of EBITDA and net income? And finally, can you just provide the achieved power price that you expect to achieve in 2015 in Spain? Thank you. Ignacio Galan So view to reform. I think very many thing has already happened in this area in the last 12 months. Do you know, we’re already a group of companies what we’re 40%, let’s say 80% of the European electricity sector. And we’re another group of companies, which is the European Round Table with 10%, we’re the 50 largest industries in Europe. In the last 24 months we have been visiting regularly all the European leaders. We’ve already made press conference, we have already been meeting everybody and just trying to put in mind about our goals, our ambition to have already a European industrial renaissance, and at the same time, to be already more competitive in the energy sector and a bit cleaner. So all these things have motion, very many of these thoughts have been taken into consideration by European Union. And then, that’s why they are already fixing for 2030 targets. It’s mostly a single target, which is a carbon reduction by 40%. With 33% roughly to reduce by 20% between 2020 and 2030. So what this was between 19 years and 20 years. So in 20 years, our European target was reduced to 20% emissions. And in 10 years, we have already, we have ambition to reduce by another 20%. So that is another consequence, collateral consequences. But, together with this, there are a couple of things more very important, is that I was recently with the new Commissioner of Energy, Mr. Canetti [ph]. I was recently as well in Davos with President for European Energy Union, Mr. Sefcovic and both of them in their public speeches, they have said very clearly, that they will like to implement a real eight years emission trading scheme which works properly. And for making that properly, they are already trying to advance as soon as possible, their reserve stability mechanism, which allows to withdraw from the market 100 billion tonnes of carbon, which is already, there is one which are affecting negative to the price of the carbon. So they are concerned then the ETS, the European Trading Scheme would not work if there are a lot of free advances in the market, and that has to be controlled by another one. So I think that too is important, is a step forward. So European Union has already agreed and this has to be, this recent mechanism has to be implemented between before 2021, but both either by President for the European Energy Union, or the Commissioner of Energy and Climate Change, they are doing their best. And they said recently in a conference to do their best for to be implemented no later than 2017. What does it represent? If that happen, so automatically price of carbon prices will increase, and that will help to make the switching from one thing, not least to other ones without increasing the cost, because now at the moment it’s very, very particular with low prices of oil. I don’t know for how long it’s going to be, but with the low price of oil that will be a good opportunity without increasing the cost for the citizens to try to switch from dirty technologies to cleaner technologies. Same thing is happening in the United States at this moment with the switching from coal to gas, yes, thanks to the low cost and prices of the gas in this particular moment. So I think that is going on. So my expectation is then the current prices is going to increase. What is the trend? Should we as quick as the eight years in the market as stability, system, will we implement it? It’s as soon as we implement it, the sooner we’ll increase this one. And it depends as well how much of those 900 million tonnes which are already free allowances in the market will be already controlled from another one in order to make to make that that will not affect the market as a whole. Related to rationing and Brazil, perhaps you can already comment better than myself. So as far as I know, so the situation continues in old situation. I have to say something in favor of the Brazilians, is that suffering as much as they’re suffering as consequence of this terrific drought they are suffering, but they are trying for all means to keep the market rules working. So they have been already doing all the necessary for not intervening in the market, just leaving the market and using other tools such as injecting money into the system from the national buyout, looking for credit and loans. So we get in the system, do we pay long-term? And looking even to modify the terms of the distribution license, which in such a way then they then they can replay through an extension of their period. Together with increases in rates, which I think is tremendous, which I think increases they are already making systematically. Pepe was informing that recently was increasing upwards by 40%. Now they are new [inaudible] of increases. So that is a positive thing. So they are trying to maintain the market rules at any price, doing whatever necessary for maintaining that one. What is going to happen, if that continues, they made the rationing. So we had already that in the past, and we managed. So I think we managed, we managed in a satisfactory manner. But I think they are doing the best for avoiding that. So I think now the problem is not the rationing only. Because of the power generation, even in certain towns and areas, it’s for water supply. I think you can already say it in the area San Paolo that they are drilling wells just for supplying water to the citizens. So that is the situation. But the positive thing is that in this environment they are trying to keep and maintain the rules as much as they can using whatever resources. The prices in Spain so almost [inaudible]. Francisco Martinez Corcoles Yes for 2015, it’s about 58, 59, something like that. We have already hedged about 40 terawatt hours and in terms of — this is in terms of energy and price, but in terms of margins, it’s almost the whole margin needs that because the rest of production out of this value is going to be thermal production that will be run on market basis, and so this close more or less the margin. Yes allow me to add something about Brazil. They are working on something that this even more rational on this line that [inaudible] has mentioned that these voluntary programs of production instead of rationing, so they are working on these and rather we will see something if needed in terms of voluntary action of people to reduce their consumption. Unidentified Analyst I had a question, two questions for me please. The first one is on Spanish power demand. As we’ve seen, despite the recovering economy, the Spanish power demand hasn’t really grown. What’s your view going forward? Because we’ve seen I think 0.5 production last year on temperature adjusted basis. The second question is about Longannet, the UK’s second largest power plant. I think you invested a lot of money in it, and you’ve also decided not to enter into the capacity auction. What’s your view going forward, taking into account they have been some press reports about the plant having to bear higher cost of network compared to their peers? Thank you. Ignacio Galan So good news in terms of demand, I think in Spain, I have already two years ago, on the group of the largest Spanish company what we already, what we called the [inaudible], we prepared a document I was presenting it here in London and you were present, I presented in Boston, I presented in New York in Washington and we were saying, is Spain a country for opportunities? And I was already, yes, mentioning that Spain is a country where we’re never warm. We’re hot or cold. We’re passing from cold to hot without moving through a period of warm, so I think we pass for the situation we were already close to being able to be rescued or to ask for the bailout to a moment that we have the economy more healthy and a more growing economy. I think that is the nature of our country, that is the nature of the Spanish. And one other is for years we have already created an industry very competitive, very competitive, very technified, but what we have already the temperature demand was so high that nobody care in selling outside of the country because all of the production was sold just in the neighborhood. So suddenly the internal situation because we’re becoming from hot to cold, beside nobody will decide to buy anything, and to consume anything. And all this inn excess of very competitive production were spotted. And I think with this export I think we’re booming the export and now the confidence is coming back again to the citizens. The export is booming and the citizens’ internal confidence is increasing, one plus another one is making the economy is growing on levels according with our estimate more closely with 3% than 2% this year, and probably next year. We’re creating employment more than all the others, and probably last year we created something like 400,000 jobs and this year, probably we’re going to repeat or even increase these numbers, so that is the positive. How is that manifest in the demand, electricity demand? In the electric demand is happening two things. First of all, in the residential one, there are a lot of devices we’re introducing in our houses, which makes the efficiency is coming inside of the houses. I think the lighting is different, we consume less. The devices, electrical devices, refrigerators, TVs etcetera are consuming less. It’s true then we’re using more electrical devices, so I think that is partially compensated. But there is something which is changing in the rules. We have not to link GDP with the demand. So I think it’s something was a correlation in the past. In our opinion, it’s not to be any longer. So the second area is in the area of services as well as the situation, the same one, hotel, restaurant, etcetera put in devices which are more efficient towards what it was before which is partially compensated because they are putting more electrical equipment in each of those things. In the industry, I think in the industry, which is the area which is last year was growing the demand. This year, the industry continues growing strongly and the demand as a whole, January and February is growing. I think January grows 3.2%, 5% in January and in February? 5% growth. So I think all this, seeing that the devices introduced in the houses, the devices introduced in the services are such, we’re consuming less. So it means we’re using much more those ones because they are more economical activity. In the industry they are already efficient in terms of the ordinary consumption that is the area that is more clearly it’s already increasing. So the demand in Spain is at this moment, it’s increasing much about what normally have two increase according with the net efficiency, introducing the system. So it means the economy is accelerating in this process if we analyze on the perspective of the electricity demand. Longannet, well, I think this country has already particularity. It’s the only country in Europe, where the transmission charges are not already the same for everybody independent of the distance where are the power plants. So in other words, the model is that the most — less costly power plant should be if it’s in the center of London. So I think if in Hyde Park they are allowed to make a power plant, this power plant will be almost zero transmission. So in essence it’s not easy to bring gas and coal to whatever, in the center of Hyde Park. I suppose the Londoners will not very pleased to see all those in this beautiful park which is in the center of the town. So those power plant which is more far away, they are already penalized in terms of transmission charges. There is one retail process to the consumer centers. In the case of Longannet, this is an example. I think when demand in the spreads are very low and the charges are very high. Only those ones which are close to the demand centers are those ones we have chance to keep open. And that’s why we will not ask for — we don’t think with Longannet to auction because we have to keep open this up to 2020, up to 2018 or 2019, which at the moment we cannot receive. So capacity payment but we have to keep open that one as to the level and we have to be continue paying a huge amount of money which, in certain cases is double, then at most we can expect for the capacity payment, that is relative. But Longannet is needed for the electricity in the northern parts of England — of Britain, up to the moment that the more interconnection will be created, or in other words, will be created and that is the discussion we have already in this particular moment. So saying that, so the production of Longannet is practically matched with the production we’re having to take with renewables. When Longannet plan was to be assisted with production with wind farms which we’re already building our project plant here, so I think almost one is matching another one which I think is going not to be dramatic. Saying that, as Pepe mentioned, the margins in retail and wholesale in this country is 1.3%, so I think — in EBIT, so I think it’s not dramatic about everything so our business in this country is regulated. So when you see ourselves in Britain look up Scottish power is a regulated business, transmission, distribution and renewables, which are already the particular circumstances. Okay. Unidentified Company Representative Any additional question in the room? Okay, we have a block of questions from the web, coming from Virginia Sanz from Deutsche Bank, Javier Suarez, Mediobanca, Gonzalo Sanchez-Bordona, BPI, and Daniel Rodriguez from Fidentiis. The first one is Spain about the Spanish generation. Does the company see the possibility or necessity of significant closing down capacity in Spain? Ignacio Galan It’s depends. I am going to reply in a Galician style. In the north-west of Spain is a region which is Galicia, which I like very much these people, which are very sympathetic. When you ask a Galician — their prime minister is Galician — so when you ask anything, always the reply, it depends. So you never know when you — that they joke when you say you are already in the stairs and you close with a Galician, you never know if he goes up and down, because always he reply in a sentence, I’m going to reply Galician. It’s depends. If the demand continues growing at 5%, so it means all the power is going to be needed in a very short period of time. If the demand is growing, we shall see, but I think we’re in certain cases, what we’re not ready is spending much more a big amount of money in those power plants which we’re not already using a lot in this particular moment. We’re already trying to optimize the cost for keeping open certain of those ones we can expect that aid can be needed in certain short period of time during the year. In another one that we’re spending can’t be used in the middle term. So I think there are a lot of circumstances around which we don’t know what is going to happen. What is going to happen with carbon prices? How is this going to affect the coal power plants existing in Spain and Europe? It’s going to happen the same thing in Spain and with this happening in Europe or in the States, which they call power plant not closed just because the carbon prices or just because of [inaudible] restriction or just because whatever are these things. We don’t know. I think the fact we have certain power plants, they are already not used very much, mostly combined cycles, which if it continues the demand growing, it’s going to be used much more. And if all this ATS etcetera is implemented and the carbon prices increase, so probably those ones which it needs to be closed first are the coal power plants and not the combined cycle. So I think it’s — we’re living in a moving environment. In this moment, depending on a lot of things, and this lot of things is going to affect completely, completely on the future of the energy mix in Spain and Europe in the next few months and years. Unidentified Company Representative Okay, the next question is regarding the retained margins in the UK. What is your view on them during 2015? Do you expect similar profitability levels as in 2014? Francisco Martinez Corcoles Okay. Yes, for 2015, we expect something quite similar to the one that we run into today, what we have seen in 2014 involves aspects in wholesale generation and retail. Simply this, there are not much more information we can give you. All the tariff decreases has been already done, and all of them has been in the same line. On the other hand, CMA has initial thoughts, show no concern about the four main topics that were under investigation on the CMA file, that were no evidence of generation market power, nor that remains of vertical integration, no lack of wholesale transparency and retail price indicator not coordinated. So I cannot tell more than this, everything is going to be in the same line. The prices have been cut to a level that it should be. All the — we think in this environment, all the Big Six are in the same line. Even the smallest, the supplier that they have a number of customers smaller are in the same line, so everything will be let’s say steady in state. Unidentified Company Representative Okay. Next question is regarding the M&A and is it still the asset rotation inaudible for Iberdrola? Ignacio Galan So I’m not seeing the need in this moment, I think we said our divestment is almost done, so we plan to divest €2.5 billion almost €2.2 billion has been already invested. So we have not seen need of that investing in a short-term something else just to complete this one. I think we can already make things up over the year and I think we’re not already planning to make anything. I think this is a goal, but that’s it. Unidentified Company Representative Next question is regarding the numbers. It’s the tax rate for 2015, expected for 2015 and 2016. And financial cost expected, the interest cost expected during 2015, according with the evolution of interest rates. Jose Sainz The tax rate will be somewhere around 25%, 26%, similar to what we have this year. And financial cost, we’re expecting also to reduce it by around 15 basis points to 20 basis points next year. Unidentified Company Representative Next question is regarding the exchange rate impact. Could you quantify the possible translation positive effect on your 2015 accounts on the strengthening of the U.S., pound and Latin coverage situation of the euro? Jose Sainz Well as of today, I would say that it is a nice impact. I think that we could be clearly of €150 million impact only due to the exchange rate. Unidentified Company Representative And the final question is regarding renewables. Can you quantify the additional megawatts installed during 2015 in 2016? And how many will come from offshore capacity? Ignacio Galan [Indiscernible] which is close to me here saying to me, I don’t know if 400 or 500 megawatts. So between 400 and 500 megawatts new operating capacity. Unidentified Company Representative Okay, that’s all, we’re all set. Ignacio Galan Okay, thank you very much. So I hope that in the next session we will be able to disclose more of things about how they think the year is going to perform. But I think I would like to summarize that last year’s results, we were already very happy with those. I think they were very much better than those ones we were expecting and the expectation for the year as well are positive. That is a summary. What we can present to-date to you. Thank you very much. Scalper1 News
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