Author Archives: Scalper1

Tesla Motors And ‘Cousin’ SolarCity Breach Key Support

Loading the player… SolarCity ( SCTY ) and Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) are breaching support at key levels in the stock market today. SolarCity reports quarterly results next Monday. The stock rose nearly 5% Wednesday morning on a bullish analyst rating, but it reversed lower amid a market sell-off. SolarCity fell 10.6% to 23.65, breaking below its 50-day moving average in quick turnover. The stock has fallen for five straight sessions. SolarCity is trading about 63% off its 52-week high, as shares have been scorched in recent months by Nevada’s new net-metering rules. Guggenheim initiated coverage on the solar panel installer with a buy rating and a price target of 38. On Monday, Credit Suisse cut its price target on SolarCity to 62 from 89 while maintaining its outperform rating. When it reports after the close next Monday, SolarCity is expected to report a 61% revenue rise, while its per-share loss widens to $2.34 a share from $1.52 a share last year. SolarCity’s “cousin company” Tesla — which is helmed by SolarCity Chairman Elon Musk — reports after the close tonight, Wednesday evening. Tesla stock sank 4.2% to 222.56, breaching support at its 50-day and 200-day lines. Tesla is projected to show a widened bottom-line loss on sales growth of 45% as the automaker ramps up production of its Model X car, projected to go for $80,000 and up. Tesla’s Powerwall battery storage units are now beginning residential installations. SolarCity, whose founders are Musk’s cousins, is incorporating the Tesla batteries into its own energy storage system. Meanwhile, SolarCity rival Sunrun ( RUN ) reports earnings next Thursday. The August 2015 IPO’s sales are projected to come in at $83.4 million, down 16% from Q4, while its loss deepens from last quarter to 53 cents a share. Sunrun is up nearly 60% from its February low, but it is still nearly 50% below its all-time high reached in December. Sunrun fell 1.6% Wednesday . Elsewhere in the solar panel space, Solaredge ( SEDG ) fell 4%, and First Solar ( FSLR ) retreated by 2%. First Solar has lost 16% in five days since reporting weaker-than-expected revenue last week. Sunpower ( SPWR ), which reports earnings Thursday, fell 2.35%.

Tesla Losing Two Executives Ahead Of Q1 Report; Stock Slides

Just hours before it was due to report first-quarter financials, Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) confirmed Wednesday that two of its key executives were leaving, sending its stock tumbling. Around midday, Bloomberg broke the news that Greg Reichow , Tesla’s vice president of production, and manufacturing chief Josh Ensign will exit the electric automaker, bringing the number of vice presidents who’ve left so far this year to five. Reichow, who joined in 2011, was a particularly significant player at Tesla, having led a team responsible for “building an all-new manufacturing organization from the ground up and for making Model S and Model X a reality,” according to Chief Executive Elon Musk. Reichow’s departure was described as a leave of absence, but its length wasn’t specified. Bloomberg also cited an anonymous source saying that glitches in the launch of the Model X SUV were tied to the executives’ departures, though Tesla denied this. Tesla stock fell 4.2% to 222.56 on the stock market today . The stock has been sliding for the last week, as sentiment ahead of the quarterly report has been mixed to negative. On Friday, Robert W. Baird analyst Ben Kallo cut his first-quarter estimates  based on the troubled launch of the Model X, a few days after UBS analyst Colin Langan wrote that the Model 3 sedan, currently taking pre-orders ahead of its release, could not be profitable with its $35,000 price tag. On the other hand, on Tuesday Stifel analyst James Albertine affirmed his buy rating, and defended the Model X. “Despite Model X launch hiccups, including a 2,700-unit recall related to third-row seats that could fold forward during a crash, we think management approached this as an opportunity to showcase its world-class customer service and may have improved the brand,” Albertine wrote in his research note.

Digging Into 2 New DoubleLine ETFs

It’s difficult to dispute the success of the first ETF offering from DoubleLine, which has managed to acquire more than $2.3 billion in assets during its short 14-month tenure. The SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF (NYSEARCA: TOTL ) is a hybrid strategy that is sourced from two prominent fixed-income mutual funds that are run by Jeffrey Gundlach. I have long been a fan of Gundlach’s approach and have owned his flagship DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (MUTF: DBLTX ) for myself and clients for some time now. I have also recommended the TOTL strategy for those who are seeking a core fixed-income fund with a lower average duration than the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Looking at a chart of TOTL versus its benchmark over the last year, the active fund has aggressively lagged the passive index. This has primarily been a result of the strength in treasuries and investment grade corporates in addition to differences in duration exposure. TOTL isn’t designed to kill the benchmark in a falling interest rate environment that favors longer duration. It’s designed to offer a more competitive yield with moderated interest rate risk. That’s its true value for those who are seeking a differentiated approach to their fixed-income allocation. Note that TOTL currently sports a 30-day SEC yield of 2.90% versus 1.90% for the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: AGG ). Recently, Gundlach and State Street released two new actively managed ETFs that are also aimed at setting themselves apart from the pack. These include the SPDR DoubleLine Short Duration Total Return Tactical ETF (BATS: STOT ) and the SPDR DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income ETF (BATS: EMTL ). STOT is aimed at an even more conservative mix of bonds with a similar multi-sector approach as TOTL. The fund sports a modified adjusted duration of 2.40 years compared to TOTL’s 3.73 years. Think less price volatility and also a concomitant step down in yield. The new fund hasn’t paid a dividend yet, so we don’t know exactly what the difference in yield will be. However, suffice it to say that this type of fund will be deemed more of a place holder for those who want to focus on capital preservation with a small income stream. Bear in mind, you will have to pay a 0.45% expense ratio to access the STOT conservative strategy. That sounds on the high side for a short duration bond fund, but may still be acceptable for those who are stepping out of an even more expensive mutual fund alternative . There are also several other active low duration competitors in the ETF space by the likes of PIMCO, Guggenheim, Fidelity, and others. The more interesting fund from my perspective is EMTL. Prior to the launch of this ETF, there were only four other actively managed bond funds in the emerging market category. That makes for a very enticing opportunity to exercise their expertise in country screening, security selection, risk management, and duration positioning. The EMTL portfolio will be managed by Luz Padilla, who runs the emerging market strategies for the open ended DoubleLine mutual funds as well. One of the advantages of the looser active management restrictions in EMTL is that the fund manager can select both corporate and sovereign debt in the portfolio. Most passively managed indexes and even some of their active counterparts are relegated to one or the other. The comingling of these two emerging market bond classes can potentially unlock greater value and allow for superior differentiation from its peers. At the outset, EMTL has heavy exposure to bonds in Latin America via Mexico, Peru, Colombia, and Chile. It currently sports a modified adjusted duration of 5.34 years and will likely offer a competitive yield to other funds in this category. This type of fund may offer investors a way to add a tactical emerging market bond allocation in tandem with core fixed-income or other strategic yield enhancing plays. Furthermore, this fund only sports a modestly higher expense ratio than traditional options as well. EMTL carries a net expense ratio of 0.65% versus 0.50% in the PowerShares Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PCY ) and 0.40% in the iShares JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Fund (NYSEARCA: EMB ). The Bottom Line It will be interesting to watch how both these new offerings evolve over time and whether the active management underpinnings add value for shareholders over a passive benchmark. DoubleLine has been known to make some bold calls with their global bond exposure and these funds will likely stand out from the pack in their overall positioning. Disclosure: I am/we are long TOTL, PCY, DBLTX, EMB. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: David Fabian, FMD Capital Management, and/or clients may hold positions in the ETFs and mutual funds mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell, or hold securities.