Author Archives: Scalper1

Google Report For ‘Unplugged’ YouTube Service Follows Hulu Splash

YouTube, the video website of Alphabet ( GOOGL )-Google, aims to roll out a new paid subscription service called “Unplugged” that would offer customers a bundle of cable TV channels streamed over the Internet, says a report. The Bloomberg report comes after Hulu on Monday disclosed plans to stream live content from two of its parents, 21 st Century Fox ( FOXA ) and Walt Disney ( DIS ). Comcast ( CMCSA ), the third co-owner of Hulu and owner of NBC Universal, was not included in the initial plans. CBS ( CBS ) has its own stand-alone Web service to consumers. The Bloomberg “Unplugged” report notes that Google’s YouTube has not secured programming rights for the online video service. Speculation over YouTube “Unplugged” also comes amid a firefight over federal regulators’ proposal to open up the pay TV set-top box market to more competition. Comcast, AT&T ( T ) and others object to the Federal Communications Commission’s set-top box proposal . They’ve charged that it might favor Google. The FCC says that only pay TV subscribers will gain access to programming, and that copyright protections will be preserved. Google, critics say, aims to swap its own advertising for the local ads sold by cable TV companies. Fox, Disney, CBS and Time Warner ( TWX ) have objected to the FCC proposal. According to the Bloomberg “Unplugged” report, YouTube has overhauled its technical architecture for the live product, slated to arrive as soon as 2017. Google last month introduced YouTube Red, which costs $10 monthly. It features movies, original content and other fare. Fox, Comcast-NBCU and CBS agreed to provide YouTube Red with content, while Disney did not. Hulu competes with Netflix ( NFLX ) and Amazon.com ( AMZN ) in the subscription video-on-demand sector. Dish Network ( DISH ) offers Sling TV, and has been gaining more content partners, including Fox.

What’s In A Multiple?

What’s a company worth? Seasoned investors know that finding the answer to that question is more art than science. One way to do so is from the bottom up, to calculate a firm’s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow methodology. The other is to come at the question from the top down, by using a relative valuation approach via market multiples. While there are many types of multiples, each reflects the market’s evaluation of a company’s expected operational performance, and can be used to cut across times, sectors, and markets. Investor expectations about future revenue growth and profitability both play a key role in driving multiples. Investors obviously prefer high levels of both. But if there’s only one to be had, which combination do investors value more highly? Superior growth and low profitability? Or lower growth and high profitability? Credit Suisse recently analyzed the performance and multiples of companies with market capitalizations of more than $1 billion (excluding financial firms and utilities) between 2004 and 2015, to find out. Not surprisingly, the bank found that companies with above-median projected growth in revenue and above-median projected profitability traded at an 11.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, compared to just 7.5x for firms with below-median estimates for future revenue growth and profitability. (For reference, the median projected revenue growth was 5.4 percent and the median profitability was 6.5 percent cash flow return on investment.) But back to the question of revenue growth versus profitability. It turns out that firms with below-median forecasted growth but above-median projected profitability earned higher EV/EBITDA multiples (10.2x) than faster-growing but less profitable companies (8.7x). Furthermore, increases in expected profitability had more of an effect on valuations than did an increase in expected sales. Regardless of whether a company is expected to grow above or below the market median, if it manages to improve profitability above median levels, the effect is dramatic – an additional 2.7 times enterprise value relative to the company’s forward cash flows. That was more than twice the effect that improving revenue growth – an additional 1.2 times EV/EBITDA – awarded to those companies that managed to climb into above-median revenue growth territory. Those that were able to vault over the median in both categories saw multiples rise by 4x EV/EBITDA. In short, growth matters more when you combined it with superior return on capital. Source: Credit Suisse HOLT Corporate Advisory It’s interesting to note that the current preference for profitability over growth is a relatively recent phenomenon. Between 2004 and 2007, companies with above-average revenue growth expectations traded at higher valuations than those with high profit expectations. During the financial crisis, there was no clear pattern to investor preferences, but high-profitability companies began to deliver higher premiums in 2012. One possible rationale for the shift: Over the past decade, it’s been easier to keep returns on capital up than to produce drastic increases in sales. Fewer than one-third (29 percent) of companies that produced above-average revenue growth between 2004 and 2009 did the same between 2010 and 2015, while nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of companies that were highly profitable in the first five-year period remained so in the second. Investors, in other words, can be fickle. So how should that affect executive decision-making? For executives making resource allocation decisions, it’s clear that both profitability and growth matter. But understanding exactly what drives investor sentiment about a company is important not only in choosing between competing strategies – those promising faster growth or superior profitability (or, in an ideal world, both) – but also what to buy and how to buy it. Knowing how expectations of future growth and profitability drive valuations can help companies decide on the right price to pay for potential targets as well as secondary decisions, such as whether equity or cash purchases make more sense. In other words, multiples matter for more than just bragging rights. Original Post

Investing Action Plan For Thursday: Alibaba, Mobileye, 3D Systems On Tap

Here’s your Investing Action Plan for Thursday: What you need to know as an investor for the coming day. Alibaba Group ( BABA ), 3D Systems ( DDD ), Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) supplier Mobileye ( MBLY ), Sprouts Farmers Market ( SFM ) and shale producer EOG Resources ( EOG ) are all due to report earnings Thursday. Alibaba Top Chinese e-commerce site Alibaba is on tap to announce results for its fourth quarter, ended March 31, prior to the market opening on Thursday. Investors will look for a rise in the value of goods sold on its various platforms. The company, sometimes called the Amazon.com ( AMZN ) of China, reported better-than-expected earnings last quarter, but shares fell after it said that growth in gross merchandise volume, a measure of total value of goods sold, shrank from the prior quarter. First-quarter gross merchandise volume will be key in the upcoming report. Consensus is for a 21% increase in earnings to 56 cents a share on a 33% hike in revenue to $3.58 billion. Alibaba fell 0.9% in afternoon trading on the stock market today . Mobileye The advanced driver assistance systems maker, which sells to luxury electric carmaker Tesla Motors and others, also reports early Thursday. Tesla, General Motors ( GM ), Ford Motor ( F ) and other automakers, along with tech giants like Alphabet ( GOOGL )-owned Google and reportedly Apple ( AAPL ), are racing to develop autonomous, self-driving car technology. Mobileye’s backup cameras and other high tech gear are seen as key to such systems. On April 19, Mobileye announced a partnership to expand in China with Chinese e-commerce site Ingdan.com, a unit of Hong Kong-based Cogobuy Group. Under terms of the deal, Ingdan.com will sell Mobileye products on its site. Mobileye was down 4.4% Wednesday. Tesla reports first-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday. Analyst consensus is for per share loss to deepen to 57 cents from 37 cents in Q1 2015 as it boosts spending to expand Model X production and build the Gigafactory battery plant in Nevada. Tesla slid 4.7% ahead of results and amid reports that key production chiefs are leaving. 3D Systems 3D Systems will report first-quarter earnings before the market opens Thursday . 3D printing could be poised to recover from a two-year decline. Leaders 3D Systems and Stratasys ( SSYS ) — which reports May 9 — grew at a rapid pace for years by selling so-called “additive printers,” which create physical objects by layering on materials such as plastic and metal to build a variety of devices. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are looking for 3D Systems’ earnings per share minus one-time items to be flat at 5 cents a share vs. Q1 2015 and are projecting a slight dip in revenue to $156.3 million. Sentiment is positive though after 3D Systems crushed estimates last quarter, reporting a 19-cent profit, more than six times the expected 3 cents, and its $183.4 million revenue easily topped forecasts. 3D Systems tumbled 5% intraday Wednesday, undercutting its 50-day line, after tumbling 7.4% Tuesday and 6.3% Monday. Stratasys fell 3.9%. Sprouts Farmers Market Natural and organic foods grocery Sprouts Farmers Market ( SFM ) reports first-quarter financial results early Thursday. Consensus is for earnings to rise 16% to 29 cents a share and revenue to climb 18% to $1.01 billion.But Sprouts has beaten earnings estimates in the last two quarters. Sprouts hass gotten a series of analyst upgrades recently, including Oppenheimer raising its price target Monday to 30 from 26 with a hold rating. Sprouts rose 0.5%. In contrast, rival Whole Foods Market ( WFM ) has delivered below market performance this year and is scheduled to report after the close Wednesday. Its earnings and revenue growth both shrank the last two quarters in a row. Its stock is down 15% year to date and was down about 1% Wednesday afternoon. EOG Resources Oil and natural gas producer EOG Resources ( EOG ) will report results late Thursday. Gas prices climbed to a six-month high at a national average of $2.22 per gallon as the industry tries to recover from plunging prices. EOG is expected to record an 84 cents loss vs. a 3 cent profit in the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue is projected to fall 28.1% to $1.67 billion. EOG shares were down 1.5% Wednesday. On Wednesday, Carrizo Oil & Gas ( CRZO ) and Noble Energy ( NBL ) raised production targets .