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Disney’s Exit From Toys-To-Life Video Games Could Boost Activision

Walt Disney ‘s ( DIS ) decision to end its Infinity interactive toy and video game product line could provide a lift to rivals in the toys-to-life business, namely Activision Blizzard ( ATVI ) and Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment, a unit of Time Warner ( TWX ). Disney announced Tuesday that it is getting out of the self-published video game business and canceling its Infinity game series. Disney took a $147 million charge to its fiscal-second-quarter results to close the division. Disney’s Infinity exit leaves Activision’s Skylanders, Warner’s Lego Dimensions and Nintendo ‘s ( NTDOY ) Amiibo in the toys-to-life games segment. The toys-to-life genre involves the use of figurines or action figures that are placed on a small platform to interact with on-screen play for game consoles. “Disney’s announcement that they are exiting the toys-to-life category in a production capacity creates some interesting opportunities,” Cowen analyst Doug Creutz said in a report Thursday. “First, we think it paves the way for a significant bounce back in Skylanders sales this year; second, we suspect the Disney IP (intellectual property) will eventually wind up as part of WB’s Lego Dimensions franchise.” Toys-to-life video game sales, excluding sales of stand-alone toys, peaked in 2013 with the launch of Infinity, Creutz said. The category declined 20% in 2014 and was flat in 2015, he said. Nintendo launched Amiibo toys in 2014, but it doesn’t have a stand-alone game like Infinity, Skylanders and Lego Dimensions. Amiibo toys are integrated into existing Nintendo games. “With Activision now the only player planning to launch a toys-to-life game in 2016 (there will be some Dimensions playsets but no new game), if the category remains flat, Skylanders could grow by as much as 300%,” Creutz said. “This would be a source of surprise upside to Activision’s guidance. “In any case, the elimination of a competitor can only be a positive for both Activision and WB’s profitability from the category.” Cowen rates Activision stock outperform, with a price target of 44. Activision stock was up a fraction, above 37, in afternoon trading on the stock market today . The shares broke out of a cup-with-handle base at a 34.76 buy point on April 13. Cowen rates Disney and Time Warner stocks as market perform. Disney stock was down a fraction Thursday afternoon, while Time Warner was down more than 1%. RELATED: EA Stock Soars Like ‘Star Wars’ Millennium Falcon After Q4 Beat .

How Amazon Aims To Disrupt Microsoft, Sony In Gaming Consoles

Video games are far from the first thing that comes to mind when thinking of e-commerce leader  Amazon.com ( AMZN ). Yet the company’s conspicuous presence at the March Game Developers Conference suggests it is ready to play. At the San Francisco conference, Amazon set up one of the largest exhibits, a multilevel edifice complete with artificial grass. Within the compound, a massive black booth was emblazoned with the logo of Twitch, the video-game-focused live streaming site Amazon bought in 2014 for nearly $1 billion. And nearby rested a machine that printed T-shirts. The company was courting developers, giving out swag and touting its new game engine called Lumberyard. This — its game development business focused on creating high-quality titles — is part of Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ efforts to strike gold in the $40 billion video game market. “Amazon’s   interest in  games  is  entirely a function of our   focus on customers,”  Mike Frazzini, vice president Amazon Games, told IBD. “G ames is a  really interesting space,  where there’s a number of different sets of customers  to obsess about.” Amazon has been in gaming for more than a decade, selling games via its e-tail website. Still, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told IBD the company is behind its rivals. “Amazon is late to the party,” Pachter said. “But it’s more committed than others. Bezos never was into games, and he’s trying to get it all — music, video and now games.” Frazzini wouldn’t comment on whether the company was late: “We’ve been focused on gamers,  game developers,  and this body of customers that sits kind of in the middle,  for a long time.” Amazon May Not Need Its Own Console Some observers say Amazon could come out with its own game console. But Pachter says Amazon might look to disrupt the game console market by enabling some of its devices, such as its Fire TV or Kindle, to play lower-end games. “What do you need a console for?” Pachter said. “Why not get an Amazon Fire TV box?” If costs fall, though, perhaps a console is possible, he says. “What if (in the future) a super high-end graphics card is $10 and a CPU $25? Then Bezos could sell you a console for $50.” New game consoles now start nearer to $300. Amazon declined to comment on future plans. Apple ( AAPL ) and Alphabet ‘s ( GOOGL ) Google also are in position to attract more video game business, Pachter says. Patcher sees smartphones also taking more and more business from consoles. Today’s phones are already powerful computers, he says, and will only improve — with better graphics chips and microprocessors. He says smartphones could be used to play even high-end video games broadcast onto a television. Sony ( SNE ) didn’t respond to requests for comment. Microsoft ( MSFT ) didn’t make executives available to comment. Nintendo ( NTDOY ), the third of the big console makers, was hit hard when smartphones became commonplace for mobile gaming, since Nintendo had focused on its own devices. Still, Sony and Microsoft have a strong research and development effort behind their PlayStation and Xbox consoles, so Amazon would not find it an easy market to disrupt, some say. “Sony and Microsoft have a large market share,” Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia told IBD. “I don’t know when Amazon can launch its own console. It’s a very difficult market to crack open.” Amazon Lumberyard And Underground Underground is a novel concept in the industry. Instead of trying to attract players with free mobile games and then up-sell them on virtual swag once playing, Amazon says that its approach, which it calls Underground, encourages developers to make better games that keep players playing. To compensate developers, Amazon pays for every minute played, but it’s unclear just how Amazon plans to make money with such a strategy. In September, Underground had about 700 games, and analyst Pachter says it’s looking to establish itself as a dominant content market, much like the way Amazon dominates e-tail. Still, content still remains king in the video game industry, which is likely why Amazon built Lumberyard, a development platform that provides the building blocks software engineers need to make games quickly and efficiently. One of Lumberyard’s selling points is that it’s hooked in to Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company’s cloud computing services provider. “T he idea of L umberyard is to provide a triple-A game engine   that’s capable of achieving the highest possible quality of game, t hat’s also deeply connected with AWS  to allow games to connect to the cloud to create those multiplayer experiences to help them grow  and build a vibrant audience of fans,” Frazzini said . Amazon aims to leverage its range of e-commerce-related gaming businesses to attract developers.  If Amazon can make inroads among developers, then it gains key leverage in the video games field. “Video gaming is a razor blade model — consoles make no money,” analyst Bhatia said. “It’s imperative you get support from content creators.” But several developers told IBD they’re concerned with how Amazon is structuring the deal, fearing that a loosely worded license agreement will let the Seattle-based company bully them in the future into using other Amazon add-on services, such as Twitch or AWS. Amazon Must Build Trust With Game Developers Likewise, Amazon needs to convince developers to switch from one of the two dominant video game engines — privately owned Unreal and Unity. Developers have to chose one, and the costs of changing are high. According to analysts, Lumberyard doesn’t offer a valuable enough reason to switch. To succeed, Amazon will have to earn developers’ trust. Amazon’s Frazzini says that while building Lumberyard, Amazon consulted a “small group” of customers in a “confidential fashion, who helped guide the development of what we ended up building. And the response has been very positive.” Spokeswoman for video game powerhouse ActivisionBlizzard ( ATVI ) Mary Osako declined to comment on Lumberyard and Amazon’s plans. Rival Electronic Arts ( EA ) spokeswoman Sandy Goldberg said that the company has “a number” of Android mobile app games on Amazon’s Underground platform and that the company works closely with Twitch as well, though she declined to elaborate further. But Amazon doesn’t see the video game engine market as a winner-take-all. “There are some game engines that developers can choose from, and that’s what’s great about the games industry — developers have a choice,” Amazon spokeswoman Rena Lunak told IBD via email. “We think the industry is more than big enough to support multiple commercial game engines. ” One way Amazon is trying to woo developers through value-added services is with Amazon Merch, which lets content creators hawk T-shirts on their storefronts featuring their brand and get royalties on each sale. While on the periphery of Amazon’s gaming push, it serves to illustrate that Amazon’s approach is comprehensive, and it is willing to leverage its massive e-commerce platform in any way possible. Another method for wooing developers is by linking AWS to the Lumberyard engine — among other services that Amazon’s mighty e-commerce empire offers. The ability to use its massive scale and expertise in e-commerce might be enough to ensure that Amazon can stake its claim in the video game market.

Teen Interest In Console Gaming Good For EA, Activision, Take-Two

A survey of U.S. teens showed interest and spending on console video games is climbing, boding well for game publishers Activision Blizzard ( ATVI ), Electronic Arts ( EA ) and Take-Two Interactive Software ( TTWO ). Piper Jaffray surveyed 6,500 teenagers nationwide for its 31st semiannual teen survey. Of more than 4,000 video game respondents, 78% own a current-generation game console or expect to in the next two years, up from 73% in the fall survey. Plus, teen video game spending intentions reached new highs in the survey. Piper analyst Michael Olson, in the investment bank’s research report, reiterated his overweight ratings on Activision, EA, Take-Two Interactive and retailer GameStop ( GME ). Teens in the survey expect to spend, on average, $214 this year on video games, up from an 11-year average of $152. “The rising level of interest and ownership in consoles is a clear positive for the game publishers (ATVI, EA, TTWO) and GameStop (GME) as it speaks to the console cycle’s potential to drive software growth in 2016 and 2017,” Olson said in the report Tuesday. Male teens surveyed said they allocate 20% of their overall spending on food, 15% on clothing, and 13% on video games. “Amazingly, video games ranks higher than cars (10%) and electronics (9%),” Olson said. “We believe this is yet another sign that video game consoles are not losing mindshare and, in fact, may be more popular than ever.” Current-generation game consoles include Microsoft ’s ( MSFT ) Xbox One, Nintendo ’s ( NTDOY ) Wii U and Sony ’s ( SNE ) PlayStation 4. Olson anticipates strong spending on video games in the next 12 months, driven by an uptick in the overall quality and quantity of major games. These include new titles in such popular franchises as Activision’s “Call of Duty” and EA’s “Titanfall.”