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It’s an ambitious plan by Amazon ( AMZN ), to procure a fleet of 40 airline freighters and lessen its dependence on FedEx ( FDX ) and United Parcel Service ( UPS ). The 40 aircraft that Amazon plans to have fully operational by 2018 will enable it to bring as much as 30% of its current delivery volume in-house, according to a research report Monday by Moody’s Investors Service analyst Jonathan Root. In terms of short- and medium-haul aircraft, Amazon’s fleet would be 21% the size of UPS’ and 14% the size of FedEx’s, says Root. In terms of payload capacity, Amazon’s fleet would be 26% the size of UPS’ and 17% of FedEx’s, excluding their largest freighters that fly mostly long-haul routes for those companies, Root wrote. “As significant as that sounds, the business that UPS and FedEx will lose may not be as bad as it sounds,” Root wrote. “Revenue and average daily volumes at UPS and FedEx will be hurt, but there’s plenty of opportunity for them to replace that lost business with growing volumes from higher-yielding customers” and growth in e-commerce. Root also says that Amazon is one of the least profitable customers for UPS and FedEx, because Amazon’s size enables it to negotiate considerable discounts. “The extent to which UPS and FedEx can offset volume declines from Amazon with new business from other customers will determine how beneficial or detrimental Amazon’s plan will be to the companies’ segment operating margins,” Root wrote. Amazon stock was down a fraction, near 700, in afternoon trading in the stock market today , after touching a record high above 722 on May 12. It’s an IBD Leaderboard stock. UPS stock was down a fraction, while FedEx was up a fraction. The threat would grow if other large retailers follow Amazon’s lead, which he says is possible. “We understand that Wal-Mart Stores ( WMT ) is investing to improve its e-commerce positioning by building eight e-commerce warehouses,” Root wrote. Wal-Mart already offers free shipping on orders of more than $50, and it might broadly offer an e-commerce membership that includes free shipping, as Amazon does with its Amazon Prime membership service. Still, it’s not clear how deeply Amazon will dive into transportation services. “We estimate that Amazon could build a competing U.S. ground network for between $8 billion and $15 billion,” Root wrote. “We believe the company has the financial capacity to continue adding fulfillment centers, pickup locations and local and regional delivery operations, it if chooses to do so.” More than that, Amazon could offer its delivery services to the many third-party sellers on its site. “Such an offering would be more problematic for UPS’ and FedEx’s longer-term financial performance,” Root wrote. Scalper1 News
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