Tag Archives: utilities

Low P/E Stock Of The Day No. 15: The AES Corporation

Summary Shares are currently trading at a P/E of 9.7x. Business are very stable due to contracts and low competition. However, the company has a poor record of asset allocation. In this series, I will select a low P/E stock to analyze. I define low P/E as anywhere from 5x to 10x, as any lower and we may be looking at special situations. Read the last edition here ! The AES Corporation (NYSE: AES ) is a diversified utility company whose operation spans across the globe. It has facilities in the U.S., Andes, Brazil, MCAC (Mexico, Central America, and Caribbean), Europe, and Asia. The company generates income from two lines of business, power generation and electricity distribution, this allows the company to capture profits across the value chain. Despite the company’s comprehensive offering, the stock meandered for years, and is currently trading at a TTM P/E of 9.7x. For an established and stable business, this is no doubt a low multiple. So is there a good justification? Stable Businesses The company’s power generation business currently sources from a variety of fuel types. Around 35% of the company’s plants are fueled by gas, 30% by coal, 29% by renewables, and 5% by oil, diesel, or petroleum coke. Evidently, the majority of the electricity is generated from environmentally friendly resources (natural gas and renewables), this is important as the governments around the world are imposing increasingly stringent environmental regulations. The power generation segment also operates on contracts. Although they are not decades long, the company’s average contract term is around 7 years, so they do provide stability in the medium term. The utility business primarily sells electricity directly to consumers (the power generation segment sells to corporate customers or other utility companies). This means that demand is not correlated to the general well-being of the economy, as consumers will use electricity no matter what. In addition, the company’s utility subsidiaries are often the sole distributors in their respective areas. This means that there is very little direct competition and it is unlikely that new entrants would want to compete with an established business that has already invested an enormous amount of capital on infrastructure. This provides a sustainable competitive advantage for the utility business. What I Don’t Like Despite revenue growth, the company has not been able to maintain the same level of profitability. This means that the management has not been keen on picking the right assets to invest in. In the graph above we can visualize the impact (or lack thereof) of growth. Over 10 years, revenue has risen 67% from $10.25 billion in 2005 to $17.15 billion in 2014. However, operating cash flow per share did not grow at all. This means that growth has not delivered any value to shareholders. In the chart below, we can see that the company has spent significant cash on various investments, which corresponds to the revenue growth. Without a corresponding rise in operating cash flow, I believe that the management is incapable of conducting proper asset allocation. Despite having a stable business, this alone makes me believe that the current P/E ratio is justified. Unless we see a management shakeup, I do not think that The AES Corporation would be a good investment. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

3 Funds For Liquid Assets

Global water resources are poorly managed, if at all and population growth is creating stresses on existing water resources. Advanced and newly emerged market economies are addressing the problem via private sector investment. Guggenheim, Invesco and First Trust offer funds specializing in the water management industry. In the famous opening scene of ‘Lawrence of Arabia’, Lieutenant Lawrence (Peter O’Toole) is shocked to see a man shot dead simply for drawing water from a well without having permission. Lawrence, a naive newcomer to the unforgiving desert argues with the Sheik (Omar Sharif) who shot the man. The Sheik ends the argument: ” He was nothing. The well is everything… he knew that, ” he said angrily. Although this may be taken as mere Hollywood drama, wars have been actually been fought over water. ‘Water Conflicts’ have occurred in the desert regions of North East Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East. The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Development declared 2005 – 2015 an International Decade for Action, designated “Water for Life” . According to the UN: … Around 1.2 billion people, or almost one-fifth of the world’s population, live in areas of physical scarcity, and 500 million people are approaching this situation. Another 1.6 billion people, or almost one quarter of the world’s population, face economic water shortage… …Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century… …There is enough freshwater on the planet for seven billion people but it is distributed unevenly and too much of it is wasted, polluted and unsustainably managed . In fact: Around 700 million people in 43 countries suffer today from water scarcity. By 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under water stressed conditions. With the existing climate change scenario, almost half the world’s population will be living in areas of high water stress by 2030, including between 75 million and 250 million people in Africa. In addition, water scarcity in some arid and semi-arid places will displace between 24 million and 700 million people. Thanks to the deep ‘reservoir’ of Exchange Traded Funds managed and organized by the world’s largest investment firms, there is likely to be ‘a capital’ solution to the problem, and thus presents a patient investor with a conduit to profit from a water management industry buildout. There are three listed funds to be found in Seeking Alpha ETF pool. All three came to the market in 2007. In order of 1 year performance are the Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index ETF (NYSEARCA: CGW ) , the Invesco PowerShares Global Water Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PIO ) and the First Trust ISE Water Index Fund (NYSEARCA: FIW ) . The main features are described below: Fund Manager and Symbol Tracking Index Investment Strategy Year to Date 1 Year 3 Years Fees and Expenses Recent Price Distribution Yields Guggenheim: CGW S&P Global Water Index Passive 1.85% -3.46% 13.71% 0.65% $28.34 1.77% Invesco: PIO NASDAQ OMX Global Water Index Active 3.66% -1.39% 15.31% 0.76% $23.07 1.27% First Trust: FIW ISE Market Cap weighted Index Passive -6.62% -8.88% 11.91% 0.59% $29.94 0.71% ( Data from Guggenheim, Invesco and First Trust Websites) Two of the three funds, Guggenheim’s CGW and Invesco’s PIO are globally diversified, whereas, of the First Trust Fund’s 36 holdings, 33 are U.S. based, with one Brazilian, one U.K. and one Grand Cayman Island based company. As far as the two globally diversified funds, CGW and PIO, the two charts demonstrate that the top sector weightings are nearly identical. ( Data from Guggenheim and Invesco ) Needless to say, there are only a limited number of holdings which fit the category. Guggenheim’s CGW has over 50 holdings, Invesco’s PIO has 35 holdings and First Trust’s FIW has 35 holdings. It’s reasonable to conclude that there’s some overlap between funds. Indeed, on closer inspection, only seven of the First Trust Fund’s holdings may be found in either the Guggenheim or Invesco funds. On the other hand 24 of the 35 Invesco fund holdings are also holdings of the Guggenheim fund; that is to say almost half of the Guggenheim fund’s holdings are also holdings in the Invesco fund. This is in spite of the fact that each fund tracks a different index in this asset subclass. Further, as demonstrated in the geographical weightings charts, the top seven heaviest weighted regions of both Guggenheim’s CGW and Invesco’s PIO are identical. On the other hand, First Trust’s FIW is virtually a U.S. centric water industry fund and the most unique of the three. ( Data From Guggebheim, Invesco and First Trust) All three funds have similar performance over the past three years. Hence, what should an investor consider to be the deciding factor as to which fund to invest in? A strange as it may sound, it might be best to ignore the usual metrics and to investigate where the worst water shortages exits, where the worst water pollution exit and which governments will be quick to respond. One notable example which has made headlines recently has been concerns about the water pollution in Brazil, particularly in Rio de Janeiro, host city to the 2016 summer Olympic Games. It just so happens that Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo ( OTC:CSBJF ) accounts for 1.365% of the Invesco fund and 1.01% of the Guggenheim fund. Just briefly: The Company is engaged in the provision of basic and environmental sanitation services in the State of Sao Paulo, as well as it supplies treated water and sewage services on a wholesale basis. The Company operates two segments: water supply and sewage services. It operates water and sewage services in approximately 364 municipalities of the State of Sao Paulo . -(Reuters) Although Rio is several hundred miles to the north in the neighboring state, having the eyes of the world suddenly focused on the polluted waters of Rio, it would be reasonable to expect the Brazilian government to budget funds towards water cleanup before the Olympic games begin. A second example may be found in China’s remarkable economic miracle, lifting millions out of poverty and driving economic growth the world over. However, it was not without environmental costs. Air and water quality issues have been largely ignored as the economy develop. Both Guggenheim and Invesco allocate 9% towards China. Below is a table of companies common to both. Company Name (Symbol/Exchange) Business Weighting Beijing Enterprises Water Group ( OTC:BJWTY ) Water Reclamation, Desalination, Sewage Treatment, Consultancy Services; global as well as domestic projects. CGW: 2.04% PIO: 4.01% China Everbright Water ( OTCPK:BOTRF ) Water Reclamation, Industrial Waste Water Treatment, Sludge Treatment CGW: 2.52% PIO: 0.595% China Water Industry Group (1129.HK/Hong Kong) Water Supply, Sewage Treatment, Water Infrastructure Construction; at least 7 water/sewage related subsidiaries CGW: 0.14% PIO: 0.449% (Overlap of CGW and PIO China Exposure) Not every holding is a ‘pure-play’ water resource management company. For example, Guggenheim’s CGW has a 2.4% position in Guangdong Investment ( OTCPK:GGDVY ), a property developer with a subsidiary holding in water resource management. Also, Invesco’s PIO has a position in China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd ( OTCPK:CLPXY ), an electric power generating company focusing on wind and coal power, and a position in First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR ) the well-known photovoltaic panel manufacturer. Neither company seems to be directly related to the water industry, however, First Solar does offer liquid separation recycling solutions and Longyuan Power generates electricity from ‘tidal power’. Lastly are those water concerns here in the United States, most notably California. It’s been well publicized that California reservoirs are critically low and that wells are drilling into deep aquifers which took tens of thousands of years to form and will take hundreds of years to replenish. First Trust’s FIW fund does have positions in California Water Utilities through California Water Services Group (NYSE: CWT ) and its subsidiaries: The Company through its wholly owned subsidiaries provides water utility and other related services in California, Washington, New Mexico and Hawaii… …The Company’s business consists of the production, purchase, storage, treatment, testing, distribution and sale of water for domestic, industrial, public and irrigation uses, and for fire protection. It also provides non-regulated water- related services under agreements with municipalities and other private companies. The non-regulated services include full water system operation, billing and meter reading services. – (Reuters) Another California Water Utility Service Company is American States Water (NYSE: AWR ), the parent company of Golden State Water Company whose business is in: The purchase, production and distribution of water in 75 communities in 10 counties in the State of California… …GSWC’s water utility operations have a diversified customer base, residential and commercial customers account for the GSWC’s water sales and revenues. -(Reuters) Also, American States Utilities , another wholly owned subsidiary of AWR is contracted by the U.S. government to supply water services to military installations. To sum up, those fortunate enough to be living in advanced economy nations have plentiful access to high quality potable water. However, poor management, growing population which demands water as well as agricultural products will certainly bring about changes in the way water is purposed and distributed. So the investor has choices in this very specialized area. The First Trust Fund focuses on the domestic U.S. water industry. No doubt between California and the U.S. Federal Government funds can be made available, should the situation worse. However, the drought problem in the United States may resolve itself should normal rain and snow falls resume. On the other hand, heavily polluted waterways, critical to the health and well-being of the general populations in Brazil and China will not simply resolve themselves and will require spending and many years of new infrastructure construction. Hence the Guggenheim CGW and Invesco PIO fund are better positioned for global solutions. The main risk in those two funds is whether the governing bodies of newly emerged nations consider environmental issues a top priority. Hence all three funds have the potential to provide good returns, and likewise all three incur risks. The ultimate risk, however, will be the accrued cost of ignoring the haphazard way water resources are managed the world over. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: CFDs, spread betting and FX can result in losses exceeding your initial deposit. They are not suitable for everyone, so please ensure you understand the risks. Seek independent financial advice if necessary. Nothing in this article should be considered a personal recommendation. It does not account for your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.

Southern Company: 4.8% Yield And Decades Of Dividends

Summary Investors can expect 7.8% to 8.8% total returns from Southern Company. The company has an exceptionally long dividend history. Is Southern Company over indebted? Southern Company (NYSE: SO ) is a large cap utility that supplies electricity to 4.5 million customers in Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida. What stands out about Southern Company is its stability and consistency. The company has paid dividends every quarter since 1948 . In addition, the company has not reduced its dividend as far back as I can find. My records stopped in 1982 – it’s been at least that long since the company has been forced to reduce its dividend payments. The image below shows its more recent dividend history: (click to enlarge) These are not small dividends either. Southern Company currently has a dividend yield of 4.8%. The company’s long history of dividend payments makes it a member of the Dividend Achievers Index. Click here to download a list of all 238 members of the Dividend Achievers Index . It’s not just Southern Company’s dividends that are stable. The company’s stock price exhibits low volatility as well. Southern Company’s 10-year average stock price standard deviation is just 16.9%. For comparison, the only other large cap stocks I’ve found with lower standard deviations over the last decade are Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ) and Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED ). If you are interested in high yields and stability with inflation-beating growth, then Southern Company makes a compelling investment to consider further. Business Overview Southern Company generates over 90% of its earnings from the heavily regulated utilities industry. The remaining income comes from competitive wholesale electricity sales. The image below shows the company’s current and “under-construction” portfolio of power assets. The company’s entire portfolio is spread across the Southern half of the United States – hence the name “Southern Company.” (click to enlarge) Growth Prospects Let’s be very clear: Southern Company is not a fast grower . The company has compounded earnings per share at 3.0% a year over the last decade. Dividends per share have grown slightly faster at 3.9% a year. The company currently has a payout ratio of 80%. As a result of Southern Company’s high payout ratio, investors should expect dividend growth in line with earnings per share growth going forward. One way that businesses with stable cash flows boost growth is through share repurchases. Reducing the number of shares increases earnings on a per share basis. Unfortunately, Southern Company regularly raises capital through share issuances . This dilutes current shareholder ownership and reduces earnings per share (all other things being equal). Over the last decade, Southern Company has increased its share count at 2.3% a year. Had Southern Company been able to finance its growth without increasing share count, its earnings per share growth rate would have been a more respectable 5.3% a year over the last decade. Fortunately, management does not plan to fund its current growth plans with more share issuances. The company’s financing plan ( in the image below ) aims to rely exclusively on debt through 2017. Simply halting share issuances will go a long way toward improving Southern Company’s growth. (click to enlarge) Southern Company showed earnings per share growth of 1.5% in its most recent quarter . Southern Company is expecting earnings per share growth of between 3% and 4% in fiscal 2015. This is also in line with management’s long-term earnings per share growth goals. Given the company’s history, growth of 3% to 4% a year seems likely. This earnings per per share growth, combined with the company’s current 4.8% dividend yield, gives investors in Southern Company expected returns of 7.8% to 8.8% a year. Current Troubling Issues Southern Company has experienced 2 recent setbacks , which have hurt earnings in the short-run. First, the company is building a coal gasification plant in Mississippi. The plant was originally expected to go online in May of 2014 but has been stalled due to ongoing construction delays. The plant is now expected to go online during the first half of 2016. This 2-year delay has already cost Southern Company over $1 billion. Secondly, Southern Company is also experiencing delays for the construction of its Vogtle nuclear plants. The completion date has already been delayed 18 months . Every month of delay will cost Southern Company an extra $40 million. The full 18-month delay is expected to cost over $700 million While troubling, these delays to not reflect long-term threats to Southern Company’s dominant position in the electric utility markets which it serves. Utilities form natural monopolies. They are highly regulated as well. These two factors make utility businesses in general – and Southern Company in particular – highly stable. Balance Sheet and Recessions Southern Company is heavily indebted, as most utilities are. The company has around $25 billion in debt. In addition, the company has another $1.2 billion in unfunded pension liabilities. On top of that, Southern Company has $1.3 billion in preferred stock as well. The company has $220 million in cash. The company has annual interest expenses and preferred dividends of around $870 million a year. Annual operating income is around $4 billion. While Southern Company has a large debt load, the company is not at risk of defaulting thanks to its large, stable cash flows. The company’s performance over the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 gives an example of consistency of Southern Company’s earnings: 2007 earnings per share of $2.28 2008 earnings per share of $2.25 2009 earnings per share of $2.32 2010 earnings per share of $2.36 Final Thoughts It is very unlikely that Southern Company generates double-digit returns for investors going forward. Still, total returns of 7.8% to 8.8% a year, coupled with low risk and low volatility, make Southern Company an interesting choice for investors needing both safety and current income. The company’s high 4.8% dividend yield and extremely low stock price deviation give it an above-average rank among dividend stocks with long histories using The 8 Rules of Dividend Investing. Southern Company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 using adjusted earnings. The company is likely trading around fair value at this time given its decent total return prospects and high scores for stability. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.