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Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 8/21/15

Major averages tanked on higher volume. As of yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 is now 4.6% off its high making it the second largest pullback all year in this trendless market. Still, the NASDAQ pullback of 6.8% is the largest pullback it has had this year. Whether this devolves into a correction of at least 10% remains to be seen. If so, October 2014 was the last time the NASDAQ had such a correction, and June 2012 was the last time the S&P 500 had such a correction. The market could find a floor as it has done many times in this QE environment when things looked the worst, but this time could very well be different since the market has shown considerable exhaustion all year, with fewer and fewer stocks leading the way.

White Mountains Insurance Group Is Preparing For A Financial Storm

WTM is slowly selling off its insurance businesses. The insurance industry is not what it once was. The WTM management team is one of the few who are awake to the risks. The CEO of White Mountains Insurance Group (NYSE: WTM ), Ray Barrette, has voiced concerns about the insurance industry and the general economic environment in his management reports over the last several years. Barrette’s comments are often times indirect by referring to the insurance market as highly competitive. Other times his statements are blatant, claiming that low interest rates and highly competitive insurance pricing do not offer insurance companies an adequate return for their risk exposure. He has voiced concerns with government debt, inflation and rising interest rates, which of course could bankrupt an insurance company if these scenarios happened sharply and unexpectedly. The investment management of WTM coincides with Barrette’s viewpoint. WTM has kept its bond portfolio very short term, far more conservative than the industry average. Large cash holdings are always on the books. WTM has also favored insurance lines that are short tail, as long tail lines can take many years for the claims to settle and are exposed to inflation risks. In my opinion, WTM is one of the most conservative and cautious insurance holding companies operating in the insurance space. There are other cautious holding companies, such as Fairfax Financial Holdings (OTCPK: FRFHF ) and Alleghany Corporation (NYSE: Y ), but WTM has them beat in its paranoia. Not only does WTM have shorter term bonds than these other companies, but WTM has been selling its insurance companies off whereas other insurance holding companies have been buying them and trying to consolidate. On July 27th WTM announced its sale of Sirius Group for 127% of its book value in cash. I found this surprising, as this company accounted for nearly half of WTM’s consolidated premiums and was by far its most profitable underwriter, having combined ratios in the 70-80% range. Selling a core asset such as this implies a bleak outlook for the insurance industry. The sale of Sirius Group is not the whole story. WTM is also selling its portion of Symetra Financial Corporation (NYSE: SYA ), of which it owned 17% of the outstanding shares alongside other partners such as Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A ) (NYSE: BRK.B ). After selling Sirius Group and Symetra Financial, only one of its three major insurance companies are still on WTM’s books, and that is OneBeacon Insurance Group (NYSE: OB ). WTM also has several other insurance holdings such as HG Global/BAM, but they’re small compared to what has been sold off. I believe these actions taken by WTM are very wise. The insurance industry has come under a lot of pressure in recent years. The macro environment has interest rates near zero percent interest. In normal times during the last several decades, low interest rates would push insurance companies to charge higher premiums to balance lower investment returns. However, the current state of the world comes with pathetically low rates, high debt both public and private, and irresponsible governments that simply will not operate within a balanced budget. Low interest rates and overpriced bond and stock markets are forcing other investment managers to seek returns elsewhere by invading the insurance space. Because of the new entrants, existing insurance companies cannot raise their prices during low interest rate environments. This is squeezing the profit margins out of the industry in an unprecedented manner. Warren Buffett has recently commented on the poor state of the insurance industry. Buffett stated that insurance has become “fashionable” for investment managers. I can understand his frustration, but I don’t think fashionable is the right explanation. Other investment managers are going into insurance because there are few other places to go with their money. The investment environment is dismal right now, and additional profits from insurance float are seen as a relatively safe way to enhance returns with few other options. WTM is cashing out of the insurance business, and at a premium to book value. This is truly contrarian when the rest of the insurance industry is trying to consolidate through mergers and acquisitions to become more competitive in a crowded industry. WTM is playing it smarter. WTM is accumulating large cash holdings and investing in startup companies, mostly services, that require minimal capital upfront. WTM’s portfolio is slowly being transitioned into a barbell, with a highly defensive cash component, and a small but highly aggressive component composed of start up companies. A barbell such as WTM’s is the best way to play the current macro environment, in my opinion. If deflation sets in, their large cash position will rise in purchasing power and provide many opportunities in an ensuing market correction. If inflation sets in, WTM’s cash will devalue to some extent but at least their insurance exposure will be reduced. Insurance companies could drop substantially in value under a scenario of high inflation and/or rapid interest rate increases. WTM is a very well managed company. I have been a fan for many years. However, I do not own shares of WTM right now because I perceive them to be fairly valued. The premium over book value that WTM is receiving in its sales of Sirius and Symetra is already reflected in the current share price. The share price has risen substantially since the sales have been announced at the end of July. Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

A Dim Light Shines Out Of The Deep Value Investing Cave

One tea leaf indicator that is used to get a sense of the future direction of the overall stock market is the number of stocks moving down in price. More stocks are now trading below their 200-day moving average than above it. Some investors might view this negatively, but an increasing number of stocks falling in price is a telling sign that brighter days lie ahead for deep value investors. Falling stock prices are a necessary but insufficient condition for deep value stocks to bubble up to the surface. This may seem counter-intuitive to investors who desire an ever-rising stock market, but for value investors, the opportunity to find true bargains increases following a significant market decline. One of Benjamin Graham’s more aggressive value investing strategies was to purchase stocks trading below their net current asset value . If a stock was beaten down in price so far to where it traded below what a private owner would value it upon liquidation, investors could take advantage of the anomaly and scoop up the bargain. Holding a deep value stock until the market price exceeds its net current asset value has historically produced excellent returns over the long term. An ever greater number of stocks trending below their long-term moving average is consistent with a future environment conducive to deep value investing. Some percentage of stocks trading below their moving average will eventually reach a valuation level consistent with Graham’s original concept of a true bargain. The chart below shows the percentage of net current asset value stocks that experienced a significant price decline before making their way into a deep value portfolio. (click to enlarge) Source: V. Wendl, The Net Current Asset Value Approach To Stock Investing , (2013): p. 184 . As indicated in the chart, nearly 80% of all stocks lost money over the previous five-year period before entering the net current asset value portfolio. This holds true in both bull and bear market years over the 50-year-plus study period. As more stocks join the growing herd trading below their 200-day moving average, a certain percentage of them will fall to such an irrationally low price point that deep value investors might take an interest in them. Waiting for stocks to reach a true bargain basement price level requires patience. It is a process that unfolds gradually over time. If most stocks are in a general decline , as they are currently, the evidence shows that some will continue to fall in price to a price point below net current asset value. The chart below shows the performance of a typical net current asset value stock over the five -year period of 1955-2008 before it entered the deep value portfolio. The chart is restricted to rolling five-year time periods when the overall stock market was in decline. There existed 10 overlapping five-year periods over the past 50-plus years when the stock market dropped in value. (click to enlarge) As indicated in the chart, more than half of the stocks declined in price by more than 60% before entering the net current asset value portfolio. Over a typical five-year losing period in stocks, the ones trading below liquidation value experience close to seven times the price drop in comparison with the overall market. This unfolds over years, not months. Mr. Market is at times tenacious, forcing deep value investors to wait a long time before labeling certain stocks a true bargain. Remaining on the lookout for a crack of light peering through the financial engineering monstrosity blocking our view of true bargains is the hallmark of a true disciple of Graham’s teachings. Share this article with a colleague