Tag Archives: stocks

Playing The Ratings Game

By Alan Gula Care to take a guess at Lehman Brothers’ credit rating right before its bankruptcy? I’ll give you some help. Investment-grade ratings range from AAA down to BBB- (on the Standard & Poor’s ratings scale). Anything below investment grade (BB+ and below) is considered high yield , which is also known as speculative grade, sub-investment grade, or “junk.” The higher the credit rating, the higher the perceived credit worthiness. In other words, high-rated companies can probably pay you back. Thus, you’d assume Lehman Brothers had a solidly junky rating – perhaps CC – reflecting the high risk of default during the credit crisis… right? Actually, Lehman had an “A” rating right before it went bust! The major ratings agencies – Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Services, and Fitch Ratings – took a lot of flak for this egregious misjudgment. To be sure, credit ratings still provide valuable information. In fact, looking up the credit rating and reading the commentary from the ratings agencies is a great place to begin when evaluating a stock. You can access Standard & Poor’s ratings for free by registering on their site. Just keep in mind that the ratings agencies may have missed some material risks. Therefore, we should really take notice when a company has a high-yield rating. Yet, most equity investors are unaware of the credit ratings of their holdings. For example, the following table shows three real estate investment trusts (REITs) that are in the S&P 500. Equinix Inc. (NASDAQ: EQIX ), Crown Castle International Corp. (NYSE: CCI ), and SL Green Realty Corp. (NYSE: SLG ) specialize in data centers, wireless communications towers, and commercial properties, respectively. I guarantee that the vast majority of retail investors in these stocks have no idea that the S&P’s long-term issuer rating of these REITs is sub-investment grade. It’s easy to see why these REITs have relatively low ratings, too. Their net debt (debt minus cash) to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) ratios are all at least 4.0 times, which is high. The average net debt/EBITDA in the S&P 500, excluding financials, is 1.36 times. At a time when many high-yield bonds are coming under significant pressure, investors need to be vigilant . I’m not saying that these companies will default on their debt. However, I do think these REITs should have much higher yields to compensate investors for the additional risk, which is being ignored. The cost of debt capital will likely rise for most high-yield issuers during the next few years. This will be a painful process for unsuspecting equity investors in highly leveraged companies. Most stock watchers fail to appreciate the inextricable linkage between the credit and equity markets. Keep in mind, very few companies have rock solid balance sheets like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ), which is AAA rated. Sadly, many people’s idea of “research” involves pulling up a stock chart and (improperly) drawing some trend lines. If that’s the extent of your analysis, then you shouldn’t be investing in individual stocks. Stick with exchange-traded funds (ETFs). If you insist on individual stocks, at least do some credit analysis on your portfolio. You’ll thank me when defaults spike, sending shockwaves through the credit – and equity – markets. Link to the original post on Wall Street Daily

From The Studs Up: Building (And Rebuilding) A Portfolio With MPT

An optimal investment portfolio contains assets intended to show well in the light and in the dark. That means it’s built to suit for your risk tolerance and target time frame, for moments of market clarity and uncertainty. We’re talking about modern portfolio theory (MPT), which aims to optimize potential returns for nearly any given risk. Modern portfolio theory has a fresh-sounding resonance, but it’s a 63-year-old investing model structured on three elements: asset allocation, diversification, and periodic rebalancing . At its roots, MPT is a basic investing model – and by now a fundamental one – that embraces diversification and equilibrium while sticking to a measured regime of the classic buy low/sell high. “The idea is that by sticking to that kind of discipline, you can ride out the down markets by staying diversified, and not making rash moves when the market is going up significantly or pulling back,” says John Bell, director of guidance platforms and tools at TD Ameritrade. For example, asset classes whose prices go sharply higher tend to become overweighted and could warp the balance. “If you’re consistently rebalancing back to a target, in general you will be selling the assets that are most highly valued and overpriced, and buying those things that are undervalued and underpriced,” Bell adds. “Buy low/sell high is what rebalancing allows you to do without attempting to introduce biases into your analysis. The beauty of calendar-based rebalancing is there’s nothing more magical about it other than enforcing some discipline,” he says. Mix of Materials Modern portfolio theory was first penned in 1952 by economist and Nobel Prize laureate Harry Markowitz, who used mathematics to support his theory that you can minimize risk and maximize returns by holding a combination of asset classes that aren’t correlated to each other and that align with your personal appetite for risk as well as your age . In other words, with MPT, you spread the risk among assets that don’t typically behave in the same way. It all boils down to these three components: Asset allocation. Investment products span asset classes that might include stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, international holdings, and emerging markets. Ideally (although this isn’t always the case), each asset class performs differently over time and has different levels of risk. For instance, equities typically have higher risk than fixed-income products, but the return is generally greater over time. Diversification. MPT disciples choose assets that don’t correlate to each other, like oil and food, or technology and apparel, domestic versus foreign, large cap versus small cap, and so on. Rebalancing. Consider regular realignment of a portfolio to the target asset allocation already in place. Certain stocks in your portfolio, for example, might soar and upend your targets. Rebalancing allows you to get back on task and, MPT proponents argue, tends to lower the portfolio’s risk. Check Emotions at the Door Why such lasting power for MPT? Because self-control practiced through rebalancing manages two emotions that typically prompt investors to make bad decisions: greed and fear. “Human behavior sometimes trumps logic and sound thinking,” Bell says. “People tend to buy at the absolute worst time and sell at the absolute worst time. Discipline takes the human emotion part out.” But MPT is not bullet-proof. It’s aimed at helping you dodge what’s called “undiversifiable” risk, or what happens when you have all your investment eggs in one asset-class basket and that class stumbles. If all your money was tied up in stocks in 2008, you likely lost a big chunk of change. Wealth Accumulation MPT also follows a basic school of thought about accumulating and keeping wealth. In your 20s, when you have decades of investing before you, conventional wisdom urges taking more risks, perhaps investing more heavily in equities than fixed income in your portfolio weightings. The assumption is that you have time to recover from a harrowing market event that could wipe out 50% of your portfolio. Remember 2008? But if you’re in your 60s, when time has snuck up on you, MPT says it’s best to protect your wealth by taking a more conservative approach without swaying too far from your goals. Those who ran for the hills and converted equities to cash in 2008 probably missed the bull market that followed. MPT cannot – and does not claim to – eliminate “systematic” risk, or what happens when the entire market takes a tumble. But it can soften the blow. Rather than suffering a 50% loss along with the stock-market crash of 2008, a well-balanced portfolio may have set you back only 25% or sometimes less. “You’ll very rarely ever be at the top or the bottom of a broad group of asset classes, but most likely in the middle. That makes sense, because you have a mix of all the asset classes,” Bell says. Disclaimer: TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. Commentary provided for educational purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results or investment success. Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before investing.

Finding Value With The Piotroski F-Score: Results

The final results of the Piotroski F-Score experiment. The portfolio lost half of its value mainly due to the fall in the price of oil. The experiment wasn’t a total failure. It has been a year since I began my Piotroski F-Score experiment (Finding Value With The Piotroski F-Score). Unfortunately, the results of the experiment are less than impressive, although the unexpected collapse in the price of oil is partially to blame. You can find the first part of this series, which explains the methodology behind the F-score, as well as an initial summary for each company, here . The second part, assessing the portfolios performance up to the beginning of February can be found here. Part three. Part four. The thesis behind my F-Score experiment was simple. The Piotroski F-Score was designed to hunt out value opportunities that are profit-making, have improving margins, don’t employ any accounting tricks and have improving balance sheets . As a contrarian value investor, I was interested in seeing how this strategy performed in the real world. It is both a way to discover value stocks and trade them without fundamental analysis, the screening criteria and investments are based purely on the financials (something Benjamin Graham recommended). Piotroski recommended scoring the bottom 20% of the market in terms of price to book value and rating these companies based on how many F-Score criteria they passed. The criteria looked at points such as leverage, liquidity, profitability and operating efficiency. One point is awarded for each criterion the company passes and the stocks that score the highest, eight, or nine are regarded as being the strongest candidates for recovery. Using the following system, Piotroski’s April 2000 paper Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers, demonstrated that the Piotroski score method would have seen a 23% annual return between 1976 and 1996 if the expected winners were bought and expected losers shorted. This time last year I selected 20 companies that passed Piotroski’s criteria and were, at the time of initial investment, trading below book value per share. I constructed a hypothetical portfolio investing $1,000 in each company excluding commissions. The positions were based on financial data only with no weighting to fundamental factors. The companies selected were: Noble (NYSE: NE ), Ternium SA (NYSE: TX ), Unit (NYSE: UNT ) Ocean Rig (NASDAQ: ORIG ), CYS Investments (NYSE: CYS ), Pacific Drilling (NYSE: PACD ), Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc (NYSE: HOS ), OM Inc. (NYSE: OMG ), Speedy Motorsports (NYSE: TRK ), Gulfmark Offshore Inc (NYSE: GLF ), Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc (NASDAQ: SCHN ), Bill Barrett (NYSE: BBG ), Penn Virginia (NYSE: PVA ), Steel Excel Inc (OTCQB: SXCLD) McClatchy Co (NYSE: MNI ), Ducommun Inc (NYSE: DCO ), Vantage Drilling Co (NYSEMKT: VTG ), Nuverra Environmental (NYSE: NES ), Willis Lease Finance (NASDAQ: WLFC ) and Ellington Residential Mortgage (NYSE: EARN ). How did the portfolio perform? (click to enlarge) Values taken after market close 11/20/2015. A 49.32% loss in 12 months is a terrible performance. Dividends received over the period totaled $61.20, although these cash payments didn’t do much to soften the blow. OM Group was taken p rivate by Apollo Global . It’s clear that turbulent oil markets were to blame for this underperformance. There’s no way the strategy could have identified or prevented the carnage in the oil sector over the past year or so. And there is no reason to give up on the F-Score after just one year of poor returns, so I’m going to continue the experiment for another year but make several adjustments. A new crop of stocks will be selected using the same criteria as the ones that qualified last year. However, this time around I’m also going to short hypothetically the 20 worst stocks — as the original F-Score study suggested. Moreover, I’m going to run another portfolio alongside the one described above which will exclude all resource stocks. I’ll be publishing the details of these two portfolios over the next week. Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.