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How To Find The Best Sector Mutual Funds: Q3’15

Summary The large number of mutual funds hurts investors more than it helps as too many options become paralyzing. Performance of a mutual funds holdings are equal to the performance of a mutual fund. Our coverage of mutual funds leverages the diligence we do on each stock by rating mutual funds based on the aggregated ratings of their holdings. Finding the best mutual funds is an increasingly difficult task in a world with so many to choose from. How can you pick with so many choices available? Don’t Trust Mutual Fund Labels There are at least 225 different Financials mutual funds and at least 632 mutual funds across ten sectors. Do investors need 63+ choices on average per sector? How different can the mutual funds be? Those 225 Financials mutual funds are very different. With anywhere from 22 to 523 holdings, many of these Financials mutual funds have drastically different portfolios, creating drastically different investment implications. The same is true for the mutual funds in any other sector, as each offers a very different mix of good and bad stocks. Consumer Staples ranks first for stock selection. Energy ranks last. Details on the Best & Worst mutual funds in each sector are here . A Recipe for Paralysis By Analysis We firmly believe mutual funds for a given sector should not all be that different. We think the large number of Financials (or any other) sector mutual funds hurts investors more than it helps because too many options can be paralyzing. It is simply not possible for the majority of investors to properly assess the quality of so many mutual funds. Analyzing mutual funds, done with the proper diligence, is far more difficult than analyzing stocks because it means analyzing all the stocks within each mutual fund. As stated above, that can be as many as 523 stocks, and sometimes even more, for one mutual fund. Any investor worth his salt recognizes that analyzing the holdings of a mutual fund is critical to finding the best mutual fund. Figure 1 shows our top rated mutual fund for each sector. Figure 1: The Best Mutual Fund in Each Sector (click to enlarge) Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings How to Avoid “The Danger Within” Why do you need to know the holdings of mutual funds before you buy? You need to be sure you do not buy a fund that might blow up. Buying a fund without analyzing its holdings is like buying a stock without analyzing its business and finances. No matter how cheap, if it holds bad stocks, the mutual fund’s performance will be bad. Don’t just take my word for it, see what Barron’s says on this matter. PERFORMANCE OF FUND’S HOLDINGS = PERFORMANCE OF FUND If Only Investors Could Find Funds Rated by Their Holdings… Oak Associates Red Oak Technology Select Fund (MUTF: ROGSX ) is the top-rated Information Technology mutual fund and the overall best fund of the 632 sector mutual funds that we cover. The worst mutual fund in Figure 1 is Vanguard World Utilities Index Fund (MUTF: VUIAX ), which gets a Neutral rating. One would think mutual fund providers could do better for this sector. Disclosure: David Trainer and Max Lee receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Volatile Trading Week Produces Somewhat Muted U.S. Fund Flows

For the fund-flows week ended Wednesday, September 2 the U.S. equity markets experienced a roller coaster ride. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced four triple digit move days (two up and two down) to close the week with a gain of 0.4%. This volatility was spurred on by the continued fears about the economic slow-down in China (the down days) counter balanced by strong U.S. economic data (sharply revised upwards second quarter GDP numbers) and a bounce in oil prices. Underscoring the increased volatility in the market was the increase in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) which spiked at greater than 30. Any value above 20 for the VIX is a warning sign to investors that the market is ripe for wide shifts in momentum. This week’s fund flow results did not reflect the up and down nature of the trading as most of the data produced was a continuation of current trends. Breaking down this week’s fund flows information by macro groups (equity funds, taxable bond funds, municipal bonds and money market funds) and by fund type (mutual funds and ETFs) we saw that all of the mutual funds groups experienced net outflows. Taxable bond mutual funds (-$4.3 billion) suffered through their sixth straight week of negative flows. Within the taxable bond fund group investors took money out of Lipper’s High Yield Funds (-$714 million) and Loan Participation Funds (-$451 million) in what can be viewed as fight to safety in this time of uncertainty. Municipal bond mutual funds and equity mutual funds also extended their recent losing streaks with their second and third consecutive weeks of net outflows, respectively. Contradicting the other groups, money market funds did reverse their current trend with outflows of over $10 billion after four consecutive weeks of net inflows which totaled almost $50 billion. There was some positive news within the ETF universe as equity ETFs (+$4.8 billion) and taxable bond ETFs (+$4.3 billion) both were the beneficiaries of sizeable net inflows. For equity ETFs it was third net inflow in four weeks as SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY ) paced the field by taking in $7.2 billion of net new money. The inflows into taxable bond ETFs marked their third consecutive week of positive results with almost $7.3 billion net inflows during the time period. (click to enlarge) Share this article with a colleague

Warren Buffett’s Railroad Vs. The Other Monopoly Board Pieces

In 2010, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway acquired railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe. This article looks at how that business has performed as compared to its large rail peers. While BNSF has proven itself to be a solid business, this doesn’t take away from the publicly available alternatives. If you were completing a modern-day monopoly board, the four U.S. railroads included would likely be Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP ), CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX ), Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC ) and Burlington Northern Santa Fe. The first three are independently traded, public companies that I have reviewed in the past . Their collective investment performance over the last decade or so has been quite exceptional. On February 12th of 2010 Burlington Northern became of subsidiary of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A ) (NYSE: BRK.B ), hence why it escaped the previous examination. Yet the company still provides independent annual reports , giving us the opportunity to explore Buffett’s railroad against the others. Here’s a look at the revenue generated by each company over the past eight years: Revenue ($b) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BNSF $15.61 $17.79 $13.85 $16.60 $19.23 $20.48 $21.55 $22.71 UNP $16.28 $17.97 $14.14 $16.97 $19.56 $20.93 $21.96 $23.99 CSX $10.03 $11.26 $9.04 $10.64 $11.74 $11.76 $12.03 $12.67 NSC $9.43 $10.61 $7.97 $9.52 $11.17 $11.04 $11.25 $11.62 Note that all numbers are in billions. From this view, you can see that all four companies are rather large and relatively comparable. Their respective footprints have been mapped out, and it’s a matter of working to improve each year. Union Pacific started the period as the largest company by revenue, followed by BNSF, CSX and Norfolk Southern. Incidentally, this is also how these four railroads ended the period. Here’s a look at the average compound growth of each company’s sales:   Revenue Growth BNSF 5.5% UNP 5.7% CSX 3.4% NSC 3.0% Thus far, in relation to past revenues and growth, Buffett’s BNSF most closely resembles Union Pacific. Next up we can look at operating income: Operating Income ($b) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BNSF $3.51 $3.90 $3.21 $4.46 $5.27 $5.96 $6.67 $6.99 UNP $3.38 $4.08 $3.39 $4.98 $5.72 $6.75 $7.45 $8.75 CSX $3.16 $3.62 $3.07 $3.07 $3.42 $3.46 $3.47 $3.61 NSC $2.59 $3.08 $1.96 $2.68 $3.21 $3.12 $3.26 $3.58 This table tells a similar tale. BNSF started with a slightly higher amount of operating income than Union Pacific, but ended the period in the same order as above. Here’s a look at the growth characteristics of operating income for each company:   Op Inc Growth BNSF 10.4% UNP 14.6% CSX 1.9% NSC 4.7% Note that these growth rates differ materially from revenue growth. As such, we know that the companies’ margins either progressed or contracted during the period. Indeed, this is what we observe: Operating Margin 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BNSF 22.5% 21.9% 23.2% 26.9% 27.4% 29.1% 30.9% 30.8% UNP 20.7% 22.7% 24.0% 29.4% 29.3% 32.2% 33.9% 36.5% CSX 31.5% 32.1% 33.9% 28.9% 29.1% 29.4% 28.9% 28.5% NSC 27.4% 29.1% 24.6% 28.1% 28.8% 28.3% 29.0% 30.8% In the case of BNSF and Union Pacific you see drastically improved operating margins, from around 20% in 2007 to over 30% by 2014. Norfolk Southern also showed improvement, albeit not to as large of an extent. As such, these companies had operating income that greatly outpaced overall revenue growth. CSX, on the other hand, saw its operating margin decrease during the period, resulting in operating income growth that trailed overall revenue growth. A CSX advocate might see the numbers above and note that the company has showed great consistency, and now with the lowest margin, has the best opportunity for future improvements. An impartial viewer might suggest that Union Pacific certainly showed the most improvement, but doing so again would be a more formidable task. Here’s a look at net income over the years: Net Income ($b) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BNSF $2.20 $2.36 $2.01 $2.66 $3.27 $3.72 $4.27 $4.40 UNP $1.86 $2.34 $1.83 $2.78 $3.29 $3.94 $4.39 $5.18 CSX $1.34 $1.37 $1.15 $1.56 $1.82 $1.86 $1.86 $1.93 NSC $1.46 $1.72 $1.03 $1.50 $1.92 $1.74 $1.90 $1.99 This table should be especially appealing for those looking for conservative investments with staying power. During the throws of the recession, each company was still churning out over a billion dollars in profit on an annual basis. Naturally both revenues and income declined during this period – people tend to ship fewer things in lesser economic times – but not to a degree of high worry. If you can make billions of dollars in the worst of times, it follows that you’re setting yourself up well for the best of times. Here’s a look at each companies’ overall earnings growth:   Growth BNSF 10.4% UNP 15.8% CSX 5.4% NSC 4.5% Once more note that these numbers differ from overall revenue growth. In this case, each company showed earnings growth that outpaced total sales growth. As such, we know that the net profit margin improved during this time. Indeed, this is what we observe: Net Profit Margin 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BNSF 14.1% 13.3% 14.5% 16.0% 17.0% 18.2% 19.8% 19.4% UNP 11.4% 13.0% 12.9% 16.4% 16.8% 18.8% 20.0% 21.6% CSX 13.3% 12.1% 12.7% 14.7% 15.5% 15.8% 15.5% 15.2% NSC 15.5% 16.2% 13.0% 15.7% 17.2% 15.8% 16.9% 17.2% BNSF, CSX and Norfolk Southern went from the low-to-mid tends to the upper-teens. Meanwhile, Union Pacific once more showed the greatest improvement: starting with the lowest margin and ending with the highest. In viewing the high level metrics and growth rates, Union Pacific showed its might throughout – even compared to Buffett’s BNSF. Which, incidentally, is likely a reasonable explanation as to why shares would have provided 20% annualized returns over the past decade. Yet that’s not to suggest that the other railroads haven’t been solid businesses and investments as well. Moderate revenue growth can turn into rather robust earnings-per-share growth due to the quality and nature of the business. Ideally you’d like to continue on to a per share analysis to get a better feel for shareholder growth and the underlying valuation – both of which can vary drastically from business performance. In the case of the publicly traded railroads, each has committed to reducing its share count and paying an increasing dividend. These items would enhance the results seen above, and allow shareholders to gain an even larger piece of the investment pie. But alas BNSF is now a subsidiary, which leaves our views at the business level. Naturally you don’t want to take your investment cues based solely on the actions of another person. Your goals and their goals could be vastly different. Just because Buffett likes a railroad doesn’t mean that you have to as well. Yet it can be instructive to think about the process. You can start to think about the industry, the consistent profits, the high barriers to entry, the monopoly-like enterprise, all of it. From there it can be useful to see if Buffett grabbed the best one. If so, you can still own a portion of it indirectly through Berkshire. If not, you can become a direct owner in another and start to build your own railroad empire. BNSF has indeed proven itself to be a profitable business with immense staying power. Yet this alone does not mean it’s the only or best choice. From a high level view, especially considering the shareholder rewards, the above publicly traded options appear to be just as compelling on a business level. The next step is determining a reasonable price to pay. Disclosure: I am/we are long BRK.B. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.