Netflix About-Face Smoothes Charter-TWC Approval Process
As goes Netflix, so goes regulatory approval of cable TV industry mergers? The notion that the Web video streamer is a bellwether for government approval could gain credence if Charter Communications ’ ( CHTR ) proposed acquisition of Time Warner Cable ( TWC ) gets the OK. Netflix ( NFLX ), which opposed Comcast’s proposed purchase of TWC, is fine with Charter’s deal. The Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission thwarted Comcast ’s ( CMCSA ) TWC acquisition in April 2015. Netflix’s endorsement aside, the deal has plenty of opponents. Consumer groups and local phone companies in January stepped up criticism of a Charter-TWC merger. Satellite TV broadcaster Dish Network ( DISH ) and AT&T ( T ) had earlier warned about the combined Charter-TWC’s clout over Internet video. And even former TWC parent, media giant Time Warner ( TWX ), has voiced similar worries. Yet many analysts contend the Charter-TWC deal stands a high chance of approval, even if California regulators delay a closing until June. And Netflix’s stance is one big reason analysts expect approval. Bryan Kraft, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, cited Netflix when saying Charter has garnered support from “key tech constituents.” And said Craig Moffett, senior analyst at MoffettNathanson, in a research report: “Netflix’s 180-degree turn to support Charter speaks volumes.” Besides TWC, Charter is also seeking approval to buy privately held Bright House Networks. Charter must pay TWC a $2 billion break-up fee if the deal is blocked. On Charter’s Q4 earnings conference call early Thursday, Charter CEO Tom Rutledge said the company is aiming to close the TWC deal in late March. Charter has petitioned California regulators to move up a hearing date. He says Charter expects a green light from the Department of Justice and FCC. “We remain hopeful that the process can be completed in March,” Rutledge said. Charter stock closed down 3.7% Thursday at 169.93. Netflix Likes Charter’s Net Neutrality Stance What’s behind Netflix’s change of heart on cable consolidation? Critics say that a Charter-TWC deal would create a broadband duopoly. No. 1 cable firm Comcast and a combined Charter-TWC, which would be No. 2, would reach more than 70% of U.S. homes with broadband service, says a Barclays report. Combined, Comcast-Charter would have nearly 43 million high-speed Internet customers. Charter, whose biggest shareholder is John Malone’s Liberty Broadband, has aimed to disarm critics. For one, it is not following the lead of Comcast, which is forging ahead with “usage-based” data pricing — charging for data consumption like wireless phone companies do, with caps on monthly usage. In a growing number of markets, Comcast now charges an extra fee if customers go over a 300 gigabyte monthly limit. Charter, on the other hand, has promised not to impose data caps on customers. Netflix likes that, says Moffett. On Netflix’s Q4 earnings conference call last month, CEO Reed Hastings said, “I think it (Charter-TWC) would be a tremendous positive for the (over-the-top Internet TV) industry, because Charter has agreed to a multiyear, strong net neutrality policy, something no one else has publicly agreed to, and that would cover not only the Charter footprint, but the Time Warner cable footprint.” Charter has promised that it will provide free connections to its network for Netflix and others for three years. Interconnection fees were an issue in Netflix’s opposition to the Comcast-TWC deal. The FCC, meanwhile, imposed new public-utility-type regulation on broadband services this summer. These revised net neutrality rules are being challenged in federal court by Internet service providers. Net neutrality rules bar ISPs from throttling, blocking or prioritizing Web traffic. The worry is that the FCC will extend its authority over broadband pricing in the long run. Most of the conditions of Comcast’s purchase of NBCUniversal expire in 2018, so the Charter-TWC deal presents a new opportunity for the FCC to clamp down on the industry. While analysts expect approval of the Charter-TWC deal, they also expect that approval to come with many conditions. Some conditions could involve Liberty’s Malone. Liberty Broadband ( LBRDA ) would own 20% of the new Charter. Malone’s sprawling media and telecom holdings include stakes in Liberty Global ( LBTYA ), Discovery ( DISCA ), All3Media, Starz ( STRZA ) and Lionsgate ( LGF ). “Malone’s ownership of distribution and content assets globally implicitly has a scale larger than even Comcast, but with a much more fragmented ownership structure and working relationships,” says a Barclays research report. Analysts say that the FCC’s study of the Charter-TWC deal could go beyond ownership structure and board overlaps and into strategic relationships. Besides the FCC, state regulators have been taking a close look at Charter’s deals. In December, New York granted approval for the Charter-TWC deal. Charter agreed to expand its broadband service to more areas and provide discounts to low-income households. Charter, like Comcast, has expanded voluntary low-income programs. California, however, might not hold a key hearing on Charter’s TWC deal until June. “The California PUC (public utility commission) appears to be the long pole in the tent,” Mike McCormack, a Jefferies analyst, said in a report.