‘Elephant’ Intel Dances, But 12,000 Layoffs Could Signal Recession
No. 1 chipmaker Intel ( INTC ) will cut 12,000 jobs by mid-2017, and that will help kick off a “recession” with nearly 400,000 tech positions to be cut this year, a Global Equities Research analyst predicted Tuesday. Late Tuesday, Intel added another domino to the layoff train, joining VMware ( VMW ), Yahoo ( YHOO ), BlackBerry ( BBRY ), Autodesk ( ADSK ) and NetApp ( NTAP ), which recently announced plans to collectively lay off 5,125 employees. Intel’s 12,000-cut represents 11% of its global workforce. Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry says it’s just a drop in a 369,000 bucket (his prediction for tech layoffs that will be announced this year) and argued against a Federal Reserve rate increase amid what he calls a likely oncoming recession. PC Transition Will Be ‘Messy’ On Wednesday, Wall Street was largely split on Intel’s mixed Q1 , with at least five analysts still rating Intel stock a buy. At least two analysts cut their price targets, however, and another downgraded Intel stock. In early afternoon trading on the stock market today , Intel stock was up 1.5%, near 32. But shares are down 8% for the year vs. a 3% decline in IBD’s 39-company Electronic-Semiconductor Manufacturing industry group. For Q1 ended April 2, Intel reported $13.7 billion in sales and 54 cents earnings per share, up a respective 7% and 20% year over year. The consensus of 45 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected $13.8 billion and 48 cents. PC chip sales rose 2%, but that trailed stronger growth in data center, Internet of Things and security — up a respective 9%, 22% and 12%. Nonvolatile memory chip sales fell 6%. Current-quarter sales guidance for $13.5 billion, plus or minus $500 million, lagged the consensus for $14.2 billion. Intel’s April quarter benefited from an extra week. Intel’s transition from a PC-oriented company will be “messy,” Credit Suisse analyst John Pitzer wrote in a research report. Late Tuesday, CEO Brian Krzanich said the layoffs would allow Intel to save $750 million in the first year and $1.4 billion per year starting by mid-2017, so that the company can “intensify” investments in key growth areas. Pitzer reiterated an outperform rating and a 40 price target on Intel stock. ‘Trying To Be More Nimble’ PCs represented 55% of Intel’s Q1 sales vs. 58% a year earlier. In 2011, the client computing group accounted for 65% of Intel’s revenue. The company is aiming to trim that to 50%, which Semiconductors Advisers President Robert Maire calls a “milestone.” “Intel is certainly trying, perhaps with varying degrees of success, to get revenue from many other markets,” Maire wrote in a research report. “While individually, none hold a candle to the PC market, collectively they have been a great offset.” Unlike other companies, Intel isn’t in the red while transitioning, Maire noted. He likened the restructuring — which includes transitioning CFO Stacy Smith into a role leading sales, manufacturing and operations — to teaching an elephant to dance. The elephant theme was popular Wednesday. “Who says elephants can’t dance?” Summit Research analyst Srini Sundararajan queried in a report. Sundararajan reiterated his buy rating and 37 price target on Intel stock. “Keeping (2016) capital expenditures the same ($9.5 billion at the midpoint) while proceeding with a layoff confirms that Intel is trying to be more nimble and refocusing itself away from the PC,” he wrote in a report. During Q2, Intel will recognize a $1.2 billion restructuring charge. But the second half of 2016 looks promising, Sundararajan said. Intel dropped full-year guidance to mid-single-digit growth vs. earlier views for mid- to high-single-digit growth. Sundararajan says this suggests a big second-half-year recovery, with revenue up 13%.