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Pure Storage Continues Path To Disrupt IBM, EMC, NetApp In Storage

Pure Storage ( PSTG ) received an upbeat review ahead of its first-quarter earnings report next week, with an analyst saying the flash storage market appears to be growing faster than expected. Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brent Bracelin said Pure Storage appears to be gaining market share at the expense of legacy storage vendors including IBM ( IBM ), NetApp ( NTAP ) and EMC, which Dell is acquiring. “Reseller and partner feedback during March and April suggests demand for flash remains strong, particularly for Pure Storage,” Bracelin wrote in a research note. Pure Storage makes storage products based on flash chips, designed for the business enterprise market. Flash-based storage arrays are much faster than disk-drive storage systems but generally come at a higher price. Flash is seen as the future of storage, with that transition well underway but still in the early stages. The vast majority of the storage spend is still with the largest incumbents, including NetApp, IBM and EMC. Pure Storage is growing fast, but it’s still incurring large losses. Pure Storage continues to invest heavily to support a business model that is on pace to quickly scale to a $1 billion run-rate within five years after shipping its first product, Bracelin wrote. The company has $604 million in cash and no debt, and it remains on track to reach positive cash flow by the end of 2018, he said. “We estimate Pure’s revenue could grow by 60%-plus this year, driven by flash share gains,” Bracelin wrote. Pure Storage is set to report earnings after the market close Wednesday, for its fiscal Q1 ended April 30. The Wall Street consensus estimate on revenue is $138 million, up 86% year over year. The bottom-line consensus, as polled by Thomson Reuters, is for a per-share loss minus items of 23 cents, vs. a 26-cent loss in the year-earlier quarter. Pacific Crest continues to rate Pure Storage stock overweight, or buy, “based on the promising potential to build a next-generation storage franchise, strong balance sheet with over $600 million in cash, and the longer-term profit potential,” Bracelin wrote. Bracelin has a price target on Pure Storage stock of 24. The company came public in October 2015, raising $425 million with an initial public offering that priced 25 million shares at 17. Pure Storage stock was near 14.50, up 1%, in afternoon trading in the stock market today .

‘Elephant’ Intel Dances, But 12,000 Layoffs Could Signal Recession

No. 1 chipmaker Intel ( INTC ) will cut 12,000 jobs by mid-2017, and that will help kick off a “recession” with nearly 400,000 tech positions to be cut this year, a Global Equities Research analyst predicted Tuesday. Late Tuesday, Intel added another domino to the layoff train, joining  VMware ( VMW ), Yahoo ( YHOO ), BlackBerry ( BBRY ), Autodesk ( ADSK ) and NetApp ( NTAP ), which recently announced plans to collectively lay off 5,125 employees. Intel’s 12,000-cut represents 11% of its global workforce. Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry says it’s just a drop in a 369,000 bucket (his prediction for tech layoffs that will be announced this year) and argued against a Federal Reserve rate increase amid what he calls a likely oncoming recession. PC Transition Will Be ‘Messy’ On Wednesday, Wall Street was largely split on Intel’s mixed Q1 , with at least five analysts still rating Intel stock a buy. At least two analysts cut their price targets, however, and another downgraded Intel stock. In early afternoon trading on the stock market today , Intel stock was up 1.5%, near 32. But shares are down 8% for the year vs. a 3% decline in IBD’s 39-company Electronic-Semiconductor Manufacturing industry group. For Q1 ended April 2, Intel reported $13.7 billion in sales and 54 cents earnings per share, up a respective 7% and 20% year over year. The consensus of 45 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected $13.8 billion and 48 cents. PC chip sales rose 2%, but that trailed stronger growth in data center, Internet of Things and security — up a respective 9%, 22% and 12%. Nonvolatile memory chip sales fell 6%. Current-quarter sales guidance for $13.5 billion, plus or minus $500 million, lagged the consensus for $14.2 billion. Intel’s April quarter benefited from an extra week. Intel’s transition from a PC-oriented company will be “messy,” Credit Suisse analyst John Pitzer wrote in a research report. Late Tuesday, CEO Brian Krzanich said the layoffs would allow Intel to save $750 million in the first year and $1.4 billion per year starting by mid-2017, so that the company can “intensify” investments in key growth areas. Pitzer reiterated an outperform rating and a 40 price target on Intel stock. ‘Trying To Be More Nimble’ PCs represented 55% of Intel’s Q1 sales vs. 58% a year earlier. In 2011, the client computing group accounted for 65% of Intel’s revenue. The company is aiming to trim that to 50%, which Semiconductors Advisers President Robert Maire calls a “milestone.” “Intel is certainly trying, perhaps with varying degrees of success, to get revenue from many other markets,” Maire wrote in a research report. “While individually, none hold a candle to the PC market, collectively they have been a great offset.” Unlike other companies, Intel isn’t in the red while transitioning, Maire noted. He likened the restructuring — which includes transitioning CFO Stacy Smith into a role leading sales, manufacturing and operations — to teaching an elephant to dance. The elephant theme was popular Wednesday. “Who says elephants can’t dance?” Summit Research analyst Srini Sundararajan queried in a report. Sundararajan reiterated his buy rating and 37 price target on Intel stock. “Keeping (2016) capital expenditures the same ($9.5 billion at the midpoint) while proceeding with a layoff confirms that Intel is trying to be more nimble and refocusing itself away from the PC,” he wrote in a report. During Q2, Intel will recognize a $1.2 billion restructuring charge. But the second half of 2016 looks promising, Sundararajan said. Intel dropped full-year guidance to mid-single-digit growth vs. earlier views for mid- to high-single-digit growth. Sundararajan says this suggests a big second-half-year recovery, with revenue up 13%.

Apple Earnings Quality Better Due To GAAP-Only Reporting, Says UBS

Apple ( AAPL ), IBM, and Cisco Systems ( CSCO ) have higher earnings quality than some 3D printer makers, based on their GAAP vs. non-GAAP accounting, says UBS. Tech companies, and some others, typically report both non-GAAP  earnings — which exclude stock options grants to employees and often other items — and earnings under GAAP (generally accepted accounted principles), which include everything. Financial analysts typically provide non-GAAP estimates for quarterly results, and those numbers frequently get more play in quarterly earnings stories in the business press. “Non-tech investors sometimes recoil at the liberal non-GAAP reporting by tech companies and its acceptance by investors,” noted UBS analyst Steven Milunovich in the research report. Milunovich says a large difference between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings should be taken into account in assessing a stock’s price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratios. “Apple’s financial statements embody the same user-friendly nature as its products in only reporting GAAP numbers,” he wrote. Milunovich also said the GAAP to non-GAAP EPS difference for  IBM ( IBM ) is just “modest,” and is a “relatively conservative” 12% for Cisco. IBM is slated to report its Q1 earnings on April 18, and Apple on April 25. IBM stock fell 0.3% to 152.07 on the stock market today. Apple rose 1% to 111.12, closing just below Apple’s 200-day line after the stock topped that key level intraday for the first time in 2016. Milunovich is the second tech analyst in a week to take a close look at GAAP vs. non-GAAP earnings. Citigroup analyst Mark May last week slashed his price target on LinkedIn ( LNKD )  and also lowered its targets on shares of  Amazon.com ( AMZN ),  Alphabet ( GOOGL ),  Facebook ( FB ) and  Netflix ( NFLX ) in a report that examined the earnings dilution from stock compensation grants . Milunovich says restructuring charges also impact GAAP vs. non-GAAP accounting. The UBS analysts flagged the leading makers of 3D printers. He said that in 2015 “both Stratasys ( SSYS ) and 3D Systems ( DDD ) had large impairments, especially Stratasys’ write-off of MakerBot, creating the biggest gaps (in GAAP vs. non-GAAP accounting)” among the companies he looked at. Storage vendors including Nimble ( NMBL ), NetApp ( NTAP ) and EMC ( EMC ) also had relatively large differences in GAAP vs. non-GAAP earnings, he wrote.