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Best And Worst Q1’16: All Cap Value ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings

The All Cap Value style ranks fourth out of the twelve fund styles as detailed in our Q1’16 Style Ratings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. Last quarter , the All Cap Value style ranked fourth as well. It gets our Neutral rating, which is based on aggregation of ratings of 11 ETFs and 272 mutual funds in the All Cap Value style. See a recap of our Q4’15 Style Ratings here. Figure 1 ranks from best to worst the seven all-cap value ETFs that meet our liquidity standards and Figure 2 shows the five best and worst-rated all-cap value mutual funds. Not all All Cap Value style ETFs and mutual funds are created the same. The number of holdings varies widely (from 20 to 2025). This variation creates drastically different investment implications and, therefore, ratings. Investors seeking exposure to the All Cap Value style should buy one of the Attractive-or-better rated ETFs or mutual funds from Figures 1 and 2. Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Five ETFs are excluded from Figure 1 because their total net assets are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The Northern Lights Fund Trust II Al Frank Fund ( VALAX , VALUX ) is excluded from Figure 2 because its total net assets are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. The PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1000 Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PRF ) is the top-rated All Cap Value ETF and the Transamerica Partners Institutional Large Value Fund (MUTF: DIVIX ) is the top-rated All Cap Value mutual fund. PRF earns an Attractive rating and DIVIX earns a Very Attractive rating. The First Trust Value Line Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: FVD ) is the worst-rated All Cap Value ETF and the Copley Fund (MUTF: COPLX ) is the worst-rated All Cap Value mutual fund. FVD earns a Neutral rating and COPLX earns a Very Dangerous rating. Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC ) is one of our favorite stocks held by PRF and earns an Attractive rating. Wells Fargo was also featured as a long idea in November2015. Wells Fargo’s ability to grow after-tax profits ( NOPAT ) has been extremely impressive. Over the past decade, the company has grown NOPAT by 12% compounded annually. Over this same time, Wells Fargo has consistently earned a double-digit return on invested capital ( ROIC ) and over the trailing-twelve-months, earns an 11% ROIC. Despite the impressive business strength, the company remains undervalued. At its current price of $48/share, Wells Fargo has a price-to-economic book value ( PEBV ) ratio of 0.9. This ratio means that the market expects the company’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 10% from current levels. If Wells Fargo can grow NOPAT by just 5% compounded annually for the next decade , the stock is worth $67/share today – a 40% upside. Orbcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: ORBC ) is one of our least favorite stocks held by FRAVX and earns a Dangerous rating. Over the past five years, Orbcomm’s NOPAT has declined by 20% compounded annually. In fact, the business has never generated positive economic earnings in any year since going public in 2006. Orbcomm currently earns a bottom-quintile ROIC of 1%. In spite of the poor fundamentals, ORBC is up nearly 20% in the last year and is now significantly overvalued. To justify its current price of $7/share, Orbcomm must grow NOPAT by 34% compounded annually for the next 14 years. Figures 3 and 4 show the rating landscape of all All Cap Value ETFs and mutual funds. Figure 3: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst Funds Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 4: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Funds Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings D isclosure: David Trainer and Kyle Guske II receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Ormat Technologies’ (ORA) CEO Isaac Angel on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Operator Good morning and welcome to the Ormat Technologies’ Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Rob Fink of Hayden, IR. Please go ahead. Rob Fink Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for joining us today. Hosting the call are Isaac Angel, Chief Executive Officer; Doron Blachar, Chief Financial Officer; and Smadar Lavi, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. Before beginning, we’d like to remind you that the information provided during this call may contain forward-looking statements relating to current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections about future events that are forward-looking, as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements generally relate to the company’s plans, objectives, and expectations for future operations and are based on management’s current estimates and projections of future results or trends. Actual future results may differ materially from those projected as a result of certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risks and uncertainties, please see Risk Factors as described in Ormat Technologies’ Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC. In addition, during the call, we will present non-GAAP financial measures such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and management reasons for presenting such information is set forth in the press release that was issued last night, as well as in the slides posted on our website. Because these measures are not calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP, they should not be considered in isolation from the financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP. Before I turn the call over to management, I would like to remind everyone that the slide presentation accompanying this call may be accessed on the company’s website at ormat.com, under the Events & Presentations link that’s found on the Investor Relations tab. With all that said, I’d now like to turn the call over to Isaac. Isaac, the call is yours. Isaac Angel Thank you very much, Rob, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today for the presentation of our fourth quarter and full-year 2015 results and our outlook for 2016. Starting with Slide 4, this was a very strong conclusion to a very good year for Ormat. Our product segment outperformed our expectations, growing 23% for the year. Balancing headwinds related to the commodity prices with segment revenue in our Electricity segment. Our Electricity segment delivered 8.6% growth in generation that will support our future revenues growth. Despite challenges related to commodity prices, we maintained solid margin levels. This performance peaks to both our balanced business model and our methodical efforts to improve operational efficiency, improve profit margins, and diversify revenue. Our strong financial performance was only a small part of our achievements. In 2015, we took meaningful steps to increase shareholder value by completing the Northleaf and restructuring transactions, building our strategy, and starting to implement it. We continue to enhance all aspects of Ormat’s value chain to improve our performance as well as to progress with near and long-term strategic initiatives in our core geothermal business and in new activities to continue and provide long-term and sustainable growth. I will elaborate on the progress we have made and our plans for the future after Doron will review the financial results. Doron? Doron Blachar Thank you, Isaac, and good morning everyone. Let me start by providing an overview of our financial results for the full-year ended December 31, 2015. Starting with Slide 7, total revenues for 2015 were $594.6 million, up 6.3%, compared to $559.5 million in 2014. The increase was driven by increased revenues in our Product segment of 23.4% compared to 2014 and was partially offset by 1.7% decrease in our Electricity segment, which represented 63.2% of total revenues. In our Electricity segment, as you can see on Slide 8, revenues were $375.9 million in 2015 compared with $382.3 million last year. The decrease in this segment was mainly due to a $30 million reduction in the revenues generated in the power plants that are tied to oil and natural gas prices, as well as lower revenues in Puna power plant having lower generation as a result of last year [indiscernible]. The decrease was offset mainly by additional revenues generated by the second phase of McGinness Hills and Don Campbell power plant in Nevada, which commenced operation in February and September 2015 respectively. In the Product segment, on Slide 9, full-year revenues were $218.7 million, compared to $177.2 million in 2014, which represented 23.4% increase. This increase was primarily due to the increased backlog we had at the beginning of the year and commencing revenue recognition on the new contracts as we signed early in the year. Moving to Slide 10, the Company’s combined gross margins for 2015 was 36.7% compared to 36.4% in 2014. In the Product segment, gross margin was 38.8% compared to 38.4% in the prior year. The increase was driven primarily by a shift in product mix and different margin in the various sales contracts for 2015, and improvements made in our – at our Ormat Manufacturing Facility. In the Electricity segment, gross margin was 35.5%, similar to 2014. Despite, the $30 million decrease in our annual revenues, as a result of lower natural gas and oil prices, we were able to maintain the same margin due to the operational improvements we conducted in our power plant as well as the addition of the second phase power plant in McGinness Hills and Don Campbell that came online in 2015 and in which we benefited from the economical scale. In 2015, 40% of our electricity revenues were tied to oil and natural gas prices. In February, we held our exposure to natural gas for 2016. In the past, we use forward contracts to hedge our revenue and adjusted EBITDA. This year, in light of the low natural gas and oil prices, we decided to hedge on natural gas exposure by setting coal option. This hedging strategy together with a transition to a fixed price PPA for Heber 1 power plant significantly reduces our exposure and we believe revenue and adjusted EBITDA in 2016 will be less vulnerable than in 2015. Moving to Slide 11, 2015 full-year operating income was $164.1 million compared to $143.5 million in 2014. Operating income attributable to our Electricity segment for 2015 was $99.3 million compared to $90.4 million for 2014. Operating income attributable to our Product segment was $64.7 million compared to $53.1 million in 2014. Moving to Slide 12, interest expense net of capitalized interest for 2015 was $72.6 million compared to $84.7 million in 2014, a 14.3% decrease year-over-year. This decrease was primarily due to lower interest expense as a result of principal payment of long-term debt and the revolving credit line with bank, a decrease in interest related to the sale of tax benefits and a slight increase related to interest capitalized to project. The decrease was partially offsets by an increase in interest expense related to a loan received to finance the construction of the second phase of the McGinness Hills power plant. Moving to Slide 13, net income attributable to the Company’s stockholders for 2015 was $119.6 million, or $2.43 per diluted share, compared to $54.2 million, or $1.18 per diluted share for 2014. The net income includes approximately $48.7 million non-recurring and non-cash income tax benefit and related expenses recorded in the third quarter of 2015 relating to new tax law in Kenya, which extended the period of utilizing investment deductions from five years to ten years for our Olkaria 3 power plant in Kenya. Excluding the non-recurring income tax benefit and related expense, net income attributable to the company’s shareholders was $70.9 million, or $1.44 per diluted share, compared to $54.2 million, or $1.18 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2014. Now, I’d like to go over a few quarterly financial highlights beginning with Slide 14. For the fourth quarter of 2015, total revenues increased 14.6% to $171.1 million, compared to $149.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2014. Revenues in the Electricity segment increased 4.8% to $97.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2015, up from $93.3 million in the fourth quarter of last year. Revenues in the Product segment was $73.3 million, an increase of 31%, compared to $56 million in the fourth quarter of last year. Now on Slide 15; operating income for the fourth quarter of 2015 increased to $49.1 million, compared to $34.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2014, representing 41.1% increase. Net income attributable to the company’s stockholders, for the fourth quarter of 2015, were $23 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, compared to $7 million, or $0.15 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2014. Please turn to Slide 16 on adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA for 2015 was $291.3 million, compared to $272.7 million in the same period last year, which represents a 6.8% increase. This increase was despite $22 million reduction in our annual adjusted EBITDA as a result of lower natural gas and oil prices. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2015 was $79.1 million, compared to $68.3 million in the same quarter last year, which represents a 15.8% increase. Reconciliation of the EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA is described on the appendix slide. Turning to Slide 17, cash and cash equivalents, as of December 31, 2015, was $185.9 million. We generated $190 million in cash from operating activities, and invested $152.5 million in CapEx. The accompanying slide breaks down the use of cash during the year. Our long-term debt, as of December 31, 2015, and the payment schedules are presented in Slide 18 of the presentation. The average cost of debt for the company stands at 5.9%. I would also like to mention that Ormat’s equity passed for the first time the $1 billion mark [ph] in which $1.08 billion. On February 23, 2016, Ormat’s Board of Directors approved the payment of a quarterly dividend of $0.31 per share for the first quarter. The dividend will be paid on March 29, 2016 to shareholders of record as of the closing business on March 15, 2016. In addition, the Company expects to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.07 per share in the next three quarters. That concludes my financial overview. I would like now to turn the call to Isaac for an operational and business update. Isaac? Isaac Angel Thank you very much, Doron, starting with Slide 20 for an update on operations. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, this was a very good year for Ormat, and I would like to elaborate on some of the achievements being accomplished. We have discussed few times in 2015, the joint venture with Northleaf Partners through which we monetize the portion of our portfolio and provided the company with additional capital for expansion. The partnership has progressed exactly as we hoped it would and we expect to add the second phase of Don Campbell power plant with the joint venture in the first half of 2016. We also successfully completed the share exchange transaction with our former parent entity, Ormat Industries. The net result of this transaction increase the public float of our stock from approximately 40% to approximately 76% of our total shares outstanding, which helped to expand and improve our liquidity. This transaction also streamlined and simplified Ormat’s corporate structure. With these two milestones, serving as a foundation, we share with the market a new multi-year strategic plan for long-term sustainable growth at an Analyst Day in March in New York. This plan involved facility optimization to maximize profitability, geographic expansion, and market expansion involving Ormat transitioning from a leader in geothermal energy to a global leader in renewable energy. During the year, we have refined and started to implement a number of the elements of the new plant and pleased to report that we made significant steps to gain each of these components of our strategy. Moving to Slide 21; we made improvements in all aspects of our value chain with using manufacturing lead-time, improving management control and procurement. This process translates into a significant improvement in gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin, if [indiscernible] on the Electricity segment on Slide 22, generation in 2015 was 4.8 million megawatt hour compared to 4.5 million megawatt hour in 2014, which represents 8.6% increase primarily as a result of the second phase of Don Campbell and McGinness power plants that commenced operation in 2015. We have made planned level adjustments, designed to optimize our electricity generation including the elimination of older or less efficient components with the goal of improving profitability. This progress is evident in the financial results we are reporting today. We see improvement in the adjusted EBITDA per megawatt with the similar levels in 2015 compared to 2014, despite commodity impact on revenues. We see a significant reduction in O&M cost and we see a reduction in CapEx per megawatt from a range of $4.5 million to $5 million per megawatt to a range of $4 million to $4.5 million per megawatt. We believe that new capacity that was recently added from Olkaria power plant in Kenya should further improve operation margins, which will in turn drive higher levels of adjusted EBITDA and profitability. Turning to Slide 23, we also made progress in our geographic expansion goals as evidenced by the recent announcement the signing of binding Memorandum of Understanding to acquire, gradually, 85% of geothermal power plant in the Island of Guadeloupe. As we stated at the Analyst Day, growth through M&A is a key part of our overall strategy. Our strong balance sheet positions Ormat well to execute additional strategic execution – acquisitions. As it relates to our goal of expanding our technological and geographical base in the geothermal market, we announced the milestone collaboration with Toshiba. For nearly five decades, Ormat is focused on and maintain a leadership position with low to medium to the geothermal projects. Toshiba is the recognized leader in the higher-end of the technology. Together, Ormat and Toshiba are well positioned to bid on and win product contracts as well as potential projects based on the combined technologies of these two leaders. Already we are seeing expansion of opportunities related to this collaboration. Finally, looking this market expansion to new activities, we are evaluating several solar PV projects outside the U.S., as well as storage projects in the U.S. Turning to Slide 24 to an operation update. Our current generation capacity increased to nearly 700 megawatts. We made a few adjustments to reflect the updated status of our generating capacity. We increased McGinness Hills and Don Campbell complexes generating capacity to 83 megawatts and 41 megawatts respectively to reflect the enhanced performance of these plants. The generation capacity of Ormesa complex was reduced to 42 megawatts mainly to a permanent shutdown of one of the steam turbines and some of the old OECs not that we optimized plant performance. Turning to Slide 25; we’ve continued to expand our portfolio of geothermal plants. In January, we’ll reach commercial operation of Plant 4 in Olkaria III complex in Kenya. This expansion increased the complex total generation capacity by 29 megawatts to 139 megawatts. Together with the McGinness Hills and Don Campbell second phase in the last 12 months, we commenced commercial operation of three new power plants in an aggregate capacity of over 90 megawatts. All three plants were constructed and start operation well ahead of planned schedule and will contribute to 2016 revenues. We will not have been achieved – we will not have been able to achieve this, if we don’t have an in-house products division. Again reinforcing the importance are vertically integrated and well balanced business model. Moving to Slide 26 for an update on projects under construction. We plan to add 160 megawatts to 190 megawatts by the end of 2018 by bringing new plants online, expanding existing plants as well as adding capacity from a recent acquisition. As part of this expansion plan, we recently announced the commencement of construction of the Platanares geothermal project in Honduras. In December 2015, we concluded the drilling activity as well as extensive tests that support our decision to construct a 35 megawatt project, which is larger than initially estimated. The project expects to reach commercial operation by the end of 2017. We also initiated development of efforts in two projects in Nevada: Tungsten Mountain and Dixie Meadows are each expected to generate 25 megawatts to 35 megawatts, once they come online in 2017 or 2018. We have drilled several exploration wells both sides. And while drilling activities ongoing, we are making progress towards securing PPAs. We believe that these projects may qualify for the production tax credit. In Sarulla, Indonesia, engineering and procurement for the first phase is completed, while in progress for the other two phases. The construction for the first phase is in progress. The infrastructure work has been substantially completed. The major equipment including Ormat’s OECs and Toshiba’s steam turbine for the first phase have arrived to the country, larger portion already at the site. The drilling of production injection wells is also in-progress for all three phases, but currently the project company is experiencing some delays mainly in the meeting some of the drilling milestones as well as few EPC milestones. It should also be noted that project is facing some cost overruns resulting mainly from drilling. The consortium members are examining the significance of these cost overruns and their potential implications for the project’s budgets as well as for the financing of the project since the cost overruns and drillings delays may impact the project’s ability to drove on the debt financing and force additional equity investment by the consortium members. All contracting milestones under Ormat supply agreement were achieved and the manufacturing work is currently progressing as planned. The first phase of operation is expected to commence towards the end of 2016. And the remaining two phases of operations are scheduled to commence within 18 months thereafter. We also expect to close the acquisition of Bouillante Geothermal Power Plant in Guadeloupe Island by May 2016, which will be immediately accretive to Ormat’s EPS. The projects are just described as well as additional projects including Menangai in Kenya are under various stages of development and expected to support our expansion by the end of 2018. Besides the investment in new projects, we are continuing our exploration and business development activities to support future growth. If you could please turn to Slide 27, you’d see that our CapEx requirement for 2016 is approximately $264 million. We plan to invest a total of approximately $83 million in capital expenditures, on new projects, under construction and enhancements and additionally approximately $101 million are budgeted for exploration activities. Development of new project is investment in new activities that reflects expenditure under the new strategic plan and maintenance CapEx for operating projects. In addition, $63 million will be required for debt repayment. Turning to Slide 28 for an update on our Product segment. Our backlog, as of February 23, 2016, stands approximately $256 million. Our backlog together with the new contract that we expect to sign will support our financials. Moving to Slide 29 for a regulatory update. Increasingly, government and private sectors are taking actions to fight climate change and move towards to low carbon resilient and sustainable future. We have seen this in the United States as key states set long-term goals, established minimum requirements and create incentives for the use of renewable energy. As we have previously noted, in October, California expended on its existing renewable portfolio standard or RPS policy. The new low requires that utilities procure 50% of their electricity from renewables by 2030, an increase of 33% required by 2020. Hawaii is an even more aggressive low requiring that 100% of its energy come from renewables by 2045. And in December, the United States Congress agreed to grant extension to the tax credit for geothermal energy as part of the broader production tax credit program. While these programs within the United States are encouraging, in December we also saw action on a global level. In December 2015, 195 countries signed a historic agreement at the Paris Climate Change Conference, held in Paris. For the first time, all countries committed to setting nationally climate targets and reporting on their progress. We believe that submission of national targets in five years cycles signal to investment within technology innovators that the world will demand increased use of renewable energy in the decades to come. This comes after a group of 20 countries including the U.S., U.K., France, China, and India pledged to double their budget for renewable energy technology over the next five years as part of a separate initiatives called mission innovation. World leaders are clearly increasing the focus on renewable energy. Geothermal is based on the energy is uniquely positioned to benefit from this trend and Ormat is focused on remaining a global leader in this space. Turning to Slide 30 for our 2016 guidance. In 2016, we expect total revenue to be between $620 million and $640 million. We expect revenue in our Electricity segment to be between $410 million and $420 million. The Electricity segment revenue guidance assumes current oil and natural gas crisis. For the Product segment, we expect revenues to be between $210 million and $220 million. We expect 2016 adjusted EBITDA from $300 million to $310 million. This estimate includes approximately $9 million of expected income related to tax equity transactions compared to $25 million in 2015. Excluding this demand, the expected increase in adjusted EBITDA should reflect an operational growth of between 9% to 13%. We expect annual adjusted EBITDA attributable to minority’s interest to be approximately $17 million. This amount assumes the inclusion of the second phase of Don Campbell power plant in the joint venture with Northleaf. In summary, 2015 was a very good year for Ormat and I’m excited about our future. The significant declines in the price of oil and natural gas have impacted many industries and we are not immune, while we cannot predict what will happen in the commodity markets during 2016. We can state with growing confidence that the demand for renewable energy is growing. Volatility of fossil fuels only contributes to this demand. This creates an environment where leaders, like Ormat, can grow and expand their market share. It is truly an exciting time to be a part of this great company, and I’m optimistic about the future of Ormat into geothermal industry in general. This concludes our remarks for today and I thank you very much for your ongoing and continued support. Operator? Question-and-Answer Session Operator Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Paul Coster of JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Mr. Coster, you may proceed. Paul Coster Sorry I had my mute on there. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Congratulations on concluding an excellent year. So looking forward, I wonder if perhaps you can take us through your sort of cash outlook for the year, it looks to me like you’ll be using in excess of $100 million of your cash balance, unless you tap into new sources of finance. So perhaps you can talk us through that please? Doron Blachar Hi, Paul, thank you. This is Doron. Basically, when we look, we do need – we do have an increased capital plan and increased gross plan. As the PTCs were extended, we are planning to do one or two tax equity transactions. And in addition to that some of the projects that we are constructing like in Honduras or one of the two projects in Nevada that we’re now finishing the exploration phase in Tungsten and Dixie, we will do project finance for them. So the construction will be financed with the specific loan program. Paul Coster Okay. So, you’re not going to be – you don’t anticipate tapping the debt or equity markets this year? Doron Blachar No, to the extent no – unless, we will increase our accelerated growth, which is expected. Paul Coster Right. Can you – you talked to us a little bit about the Toshiba partnership? You alluded to sort of benefiting you already. What is the nature of the benefit you’re seeing? Isaac Angel Hi, Paul. This is Isaac. I think it’s one of the best things happened during the last year. In the last six months, we have exposure to much more projects than we did in the past because of the fact that both companies are approaching a high-end, low-end and middle-end of the projects together. Actually, we have even a win, which I cannot speak about it as of now, but we will talk about it in the very near future. And I’m very, very optimistic that this collaboration will bring in 2016 more and more projects, specifically in other countries mainly in Europe and Southeast Asia. Paul Coster Okay. My last question is looking at your anticipated deployment activity, it looks to me like revenues and I assume EBITDA should accelerate a little bit in 2017, just eyeballing the megawatts that come online. Is that a reasonable assumption to make? Isaac Angel It was a short answer and unfortunately I have a long – it was a short question and I have a long answer. As you realize with the year passing through and we have $256 million contract in Sarulla, which will be ending in sometime during 2017. We have to accelerate our Product segment, but you realize that it will be difficult to staying the same growth in Product segments with this project ending. But on the other hand realizing that and we announced it on March in New York, the company is making tremendous efforts to accelerate the Electricity segment and we believe we will continue – we will sustain growth, but not necessarily it will be divided in the same percentage between products and electricity looking forward. On the other hand, I should say, we’re not giving any outlook for 2017 or 2018, and the only outlook that we’re giving is in 2016. But, in general, if you look within the next five years, we are expecting a step-up function in our Electricity segment, and the company is doing tremendous efforts and as part of the accelerated CapEx that you’re seeing to build more and more power plants internally and also externally. Paul Coster Very good, thank you very much. Isaac Angel Thank you. Operator Our next question comes from Dan Mannes of Avondale Partners. Please go ahead. Dan Mannes Good morning and also congratulations on a strong quarter and a strong year. Isaac Angel Thank you very much, Dan. Dan Mannes A couple of follow-ups. First, the acquisition in Guadeloupe – first, congratulations on getting an acquisition done. Can you give us a little bit more color maybe on the structure of the PPA, they’re number one. And number two, is this – the closing of this transaction included in your guidance for 2016 or not. Doron Blachar Hi, Dan. It’s Doron. For the second part, yes. The guidance includes the acquisition of Guadeloupe response. The first part basically, the PPA in Guadeloupe has a capacity payment and has an energy payment. We cannot – we still don’t own the assets at closing, haven’t happened. So we cannot discuss too much in details, because we still don’t own the power plant, but there is a capacity and an energy payment that grows up – goes up as the generation goes up. Dan Mannes Okay. And maybe could you walk through the structure of the purchase, does it face – you’re going to own all – 85% of all 15 megawatts this year or you own a piece of that and then it grow – then there are multiple payments to them? Could you maybe just walk us through how that works? Doron Blachar We’re going to own upon closing 80% of the facility, and then the investment – the acquisition and the investment structure says that in the next two years from the closing. Recently, Ormat will increase its capital investments to the company and by putting in more cash into the company; the percentages will go up and will reach once all the cash is invested to 85% ownership by Ormat. Since, we are going to have 80% on closing. We will consolidate obviously the company. We are the controlling shareholders. And our people actually have been there already and analyzing the projects to see how we can expand it sooner rather than later. Dan Mannes Got it. A real quick one on Tungsten and Dixie Meadows, it’s great to see you guys are finding some more drilling success. Can you talk at all about the PPA market for those plants, the last several Nevada plants, you’ve sold into California. Alternatively, is this an opportunity to perhaps get a commercial PPA? If you could talk to us about the PPA environment, that would be helpful? Doron Blachar Dan, do you know as I know that the PPA environment in the U.S. is a bit suffering in the last few years. On the other hand, Ormat was – we successfully achieved few PPAs in the last year or so. And even though I cannot talk on the details, but I’m optimistic that our future growth in the Electricity segment will come both from the U.S. and from the other countries. And I’m very optimistic that we will be able to gain PPAs for these two power plants and more in the U.S. Dan Mannes Okay. Doron Blachar But unfortunately, I’m not in a position to talk about terms, numbers and so on. I really hope that this will be an outline very soon. Dan Mannes Okay. Olkaria 3 with the completion of the most recent phase, can you maybe help us to understand the new agreement you have and your ability to expand this and also is this included in the some portion – is another leg of Olkaria 3 included in the 160 megawatts to 190 megawatts that that you’ve laid out through 2018? Doron Blachar Well, no – first of all, no doubt that Olkaria is one of our most successful prospects. And there is an opportunity to increase Olkaria to the third phase as we already have assigned PPA. I don’t know if we disclosed it, but it is 400 megawatts, which 29 of them are already consumed. And there is a possibility to increase it to Olkaria 5, but it is not in the numbers that mentioned in the 180 megawatts – sorry, 160 megawatts to 190 megawatts. Isaac Angel I would like maybe just to add a little bit color. In the 160 megawatts to 190 megawatts, obviously, we have projects that are not finalized or have final PPAs and finish exploration. These are projects that are in the process. And at the end of the day, we don’t know exactly all the projects that will come in. We have seen today, this next phase is not in the numbers, but exploration and resources tend to change over time. And so we might see that there is additional result and may be an addition to increase it or not, so it’s not in the initial estimate, but it can obviously come in, if that is something that will go out or whatever. Doron Blachar Dan, I will reiterate, what I just said to Paul before. We are working very, very diligently to make this step up function as I talked about it in our meeting last year and I think that this will fuel the growth of Ormat in the next upcoming five years or more. And it will come both from the U.S. as I said and elsewhere, specifically from African countries and Southeast Asia. Dan Mannes On that note, one of the major geothermal owners in Southeast Asia at least through some trade publications is reportedly considering selling and this will be a very major asset that could be a step change in terms of your output if you pursed it. Is that – without discussing a particular M&A opportunity, how serious are you on M&A at this point and would you consider kind of assets of that time – type of scope and scale? Isaac Angel Dan, it’s very, very premature way. We got the same teaser yesterday and we are looking into it. Don’t forget that we are talking about an asset of over maybe $2 billion. So, it’s something that we should certainly look into, but it’s very early to talk about it seriously. Dan Mannes Okay. And then my final question, as you look at the Product segment, we’ve been really impressed with the way you’ve been able to maintain margins last year, a lot of that you guys have done internally in terms of improving operations. Historically, you’ve kind of managed expectations as it relates to product margins, maybe a little bit lower than what you put up the last year. Can you maybe help us out a little bit in terms of how to think about sequential margins in the Product segment for 2016 and beyond? And secondarily, as you mentioned your backlog of 260, most of that’s going to go out the door in 2016. It sounds like you have pretty high confidence you’re about to bring in some more material backlog in the fairly near-term? Isaac Angel On the margin sides, we are confident that we will be able to keep somehow the margins on the levels that we are. It might deviate a bit depending on the product mix that in the countries that we are operating in. On the second thing, as I said before, it will be very difficult to maintain the same levels of product going forward when you lose or not lose – losing is not the right word, when you finish successfully a $256 million projects. On the other hand, we are bringing in new products – product constructs. But as I said before, I’m not really worried because our strategy that calls for increasing rapidly the growth in the electricity demand will basically fuel the growth of the Company as a total, and not necessarily we will be able to keep – to maintain the same ratio as we have today, which is pretty high as you have noticed in the last year. So I’m optimistic for the future, but not necessary in the same ratio in numbers. And to conclude I believe that the profitability is sustainable. Dan Mannes Sounds good. Thanks so much for all the color. Isaac Angel Thank you. Operator [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Ella Fried of Leumi. Please go ahead. Ella Fried Hey, I also like to congratulate you on the result. I have two questions. First is regarding the Toshiba Corporation, what do you say that it is already reflected in the Product segment or do you see it affecting the product segment beyond Sarulla? Isaac Angel Hi, Ella. Thanks for your congrats. And first of all, it’s not reflected in 2015 numbers, but it is reflected in 2016 and the backlog as it stands now, still not a very substantial number, but we expect that this number will grow looking forward. And to the second part, it’s pretty much the same answer as I gave to Dan and Paul before on the mix of Electricity and the products looking forward. Ella Fried Thank you. And the second question is regarding your hedge for the next year. Could you elaborate basically or maybe give some numbers regarding this hedge? Isaac Angel Basically, what we did – basically in light of the very low oil and natural gas prices and since we have exposure to this commodity and we’ve decided to sell a call option, basically it hedges Ormat on the downside, not 100% on the downside, but it hedges Ormat up to a certain point on the downside and generates additional EBITDA to the company. The main idea of this hedge is to hedge the budget, which is the basis for the guidance. So we can keep it. So it’s a bit of different structure than a simple forward and standard forward has a selling of a call and buying a put, so we actually exercised half of the forward selling at call only. Ella Fried So you had there like most of the cash flow of Puna? Isaac Angel Puna on the oil and on the gas Ormesa and the left part of Heber that is still on – on the gas part. Ella Fried Okay. Well, thank you and again very impressive results. Isaac Angel Thank you very much. Operator Our next question comes from [indiscernible]. Please go ahead. Unidentified Analyst Hi, good morning or good evening. Also congratulations on your great 2015 results. Two questions. First of all with 2015 ahead, are you planning any divestments of power plants like you did or joint ventures like you did with Northleaf. And the second question is what’s going to happen in 2018 when the contract for Ormesa has come to expire? Doron Blachar Okay, Daniel, for us it’s good morning as we are in Reno. And for the first part, we are happy with our partnership with Northleaf and we are pooling in the second part of Don Campbell to the joint venture. We don’t have current partnerships plan in any other power plants and if [indiscernible] obviously we will notify the market on that. And on Ormesa, 2018, I wouldn’t be worried about it. We are working on it since last year and I’m optimistic that we will be able to resign PPA, which will not be linked to the gas prices in Ormesa. Daniel Wasserman And how many CapEx would be necessary in order to keep the reserve or to keep it going? Doron Blachar There is no CapEx required at this stage. We made lots of modifications in Ormesa. Last year, we shutdown a steam turbine part of the older equipment, re-change the structure of the operations. And at the end of the day even though we decreased the output of the power plant, we increased seriously the profitability. And there is – at this stage, there is no serious CapEx – any serious CapEx requirement over there. And Ormesa will serve our growth 2018 and onwards. And again – it will again decrease our exposure to natural gas prices by another one-thirds. Daniel Wasserman Okay, thank you. Doron Blachar Thank you. Operator The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect your lines. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) 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AES Tiete’s (AESYY) CEO Britaldo Soares on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

AES Tiete S.A. ADR ( OTCPK:AESYY ) Q4 2015 Earnings Conference Call February 24, 2016 9:00 AM ET Operator Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to AES Tiete Energia S.A. conference call that is operated by Chorus Call Brasil. In this conference call we will talk about the earnings results of 2015 of the Company. The IR area of AES Tiete Energia also informs you that the release of these earnings result is already available on our site, ri.aestiete.com.br. All participants are connected on a listen-only mode and subsequently, we will have a Q&A session where we will give you further instructions to participate. [Operator Instructions] and we would like to remind you that this conference call is being recorded and is also being transmitted through webcast through the site ri.aestiete.com.br. On behalf of AES Tiete Energia, we would like to clarify that forward-looking statements made during this conference call regarding business prospects, projections and operating targets and financial targets of the Company are forecasts based on current expectations. These expectations may change due to variables like market conditions, economic performance of the country and economic performance of international markets. The presentation will be followed by the slides that you may visualize through the webcast and they will be carried out by our CEO, Mr. Britaldo Soares and the Vice CEO of Investor Relations, Mr. Francisco Morandi. At the end, our officers will be at your disposal to answer any further questions. Now, I would like to give the floor to Mr. Britaldo Soares. Please Mr. Britaldo Soares, you have the floor. Britaldo Soares Good morning to all, we are now going to begin the presentation of the results of AES Tiete for 2015. I’m going to give you a summary of some highlights of 2015 and then I’ll turn the floor over to Francisco Morandi who’s going to give you more details. Today with us are Julian Nebreda, which according to the material fact, last week, will be appointed the new CEO of the AES Brazil Group and also our VP for Operations in Generation, Mr. Italo Carvalho Freitas, and as you all know, Italo Freitas will be the new CEO of AES Tiete Energia as of April 1, 2016. Also with us is VP of Institutional Relations, Mr. Paulo Camillo, the VP for Legal and Compliance, Mr. Pedro Bueno and the VP of Generation Business, Mr. Ricardo Cyrino and with the Investor Relations team. Moving on to Slide 2, we will begin with hydrology, and I would like to highlight the improvement in the affluence in the period. The average affluence in the southeast, mid-west regions in the end of 2015 was 85% of the long term average. That is 15 percentage points above the 70% of 2014. Average affluence in the quarter was above the historical average and at the end of Q4 2015 was 105% of the long term average relative to 74% in Q4 2014. It was therefore possible to see higher levels in the reservoirs in the system as compared with the previous periods, and at the end of 2015, the level was 29% relative to 22% at the end of 2014. The reservoir levels of our power plants also had an increase by 30 percentage points and at the end of 2015 were at 65% relative to 35% in December 2014. This recovery in the levels of the reservoirs have also to do with the lower consumption by 2% when we compare 2014 to 2015. The lowering at the end of the quarter was a 7.1% as compared with 12.2% in Q4 2014. As regard to the year of 2015, the lowering was 15.8% as compared with 9.3% in 2014. This lowering of the MRE in 2015 is in line with the Company’s guidance and had an impact of R$593 million on the Company’s bottom line. This will be talked about by Francisco. As regard to the commercialization strategy, in this quarter, we sold 140 megawatt average for three years at an average price of R$152 per megawatt hour for delivery as of 2016. We currently have contracted 95% of our available energy for 2016 and 88% for 2017. I would also like to highlight the completion of the Company restructuring of AES Tiete in December 2015. AES Tiete has been incorporated by its previous controller, Companhia Brasiliana de Energia and was then called AES Energia S.A. Brasiliana de Energia had an investment, had a stake in AES Eletropaulo, Uruguaiana, Elpa and Servicos, and all of these stakes were transferred to a new holding of the Group, which is called Brasiliana Participacoes. The main objectives of thee corporate restructuring were to strengthen AES Tiete as the platform for growth of AES in Generation in Brazil, to improve corporate governance by migrating AES Tiete to level 2 of BM&FBovespa to consolidate liquidity by means of negotiating a single instrument, the unit and the negotiation started as of January 4th and units are composed by 1 common share and 4 preferential shares, and then also it simplifies the shareholders’ agreement between AES and BM&FBovespa thus making the decision-making process of AES Tiete faster. Moving on to Slide 3, we consider this restructuring and to allow for comparisons, we will present to you the financial results of AES Tiete before the merger and the results of the continued operations of AES Tiete Energia S.A., excluding the results of those companies, which were transferred to Brasiliana Participacoes. Let’s begin with AES Tiete S.A. before the merger. We saw that the net revenue for the year was R$2.3 billion in 2015, 18% lower than the revenue of 2014 and this has to do with the lower volume and price of energy sold in the spot market. The costs and OpEx excluding depreciation amounted to R$1.2 billion in the year, a 46% drop relative to 2014. They were impacted by the reduction of the Company’s exposure to the spot market, which also reflects a lower volume and price of the spot in the period. Therefore, it went from R$688 per megawatt hour to R$287.20 per megawatt hour in 2015. Manageable PMSO in 2015 was R$197 million, an 8% reduction in actual terms as compared with 2014. This was a better performance relative to the zero projection that we had in the beginning of 2015. The cost reduction in actual terms has to do with our initiatives to improve efficiency, manage assets and realize costs in the last few years. EBITDA amounted to R$1.4 billion this year relative to R$918 million in 2014. In view of the reduction of costs and OpEx and consequently the net income increased to R$726 million, relative to R$449 million in 2014. Analysing the EBITDA of the continued operations of AES Tiete Energia we can see that EBITDA was R$1.3 billion in 2015, relative to R$914 million in 2014. This has to do with the positive effect of the reduction of costs with energy bought from AES Tiete. The net income for the year was R$739 million in 2015 relative to R$413 million in 2014, a 79% increase in view of the lower cost of energy bought and the tax credit for R$43.7 million arising from the corporate restructuring. As regard to the payout of dividend AES Tiete Energia’s management has proposed a payout of complementary dividends of R$463.8 million relative to Q4 2015, totalling R$721 million for the year 2015, with a payout of 99.3% in the year. As regard to relevant recognitions, the Company continued in the Corporate Sustainability Index of Bovespa for the 9th consecutive year. In 2014, we were awarded the Eloy Chaves Golden Award which recognizes safety standards. I’m now going to turn the floor over to Francisco Morandi to continue the presentation. Francisco Morandi Thank you, Britaldo. Good morning to all. Moving on to Slide 4, you see the levels of the reservoirs and the thermal dispatch. As you can see on the graph on the left-hand side, there was an improvement in the level of reservoirs which started and these levels were 22% in December 2014 and are now 29% of the useful volume in December 2015. As said before, the recovery of the reservoir levels of the national integrated system has to do with the better affluence and this, in Q4, it was 116% above the historical average in the long term, relative to 80% in Q4 2014. There was also a lower load in the year, and the reduction was by 2%. On the right-hand side of slide, you see the evolution of the reservoirs as compared with the volume of thermal dispatch in the last few years. You see that thermal dispatch is still high but begins to be reduced. In the quarter, thermal dispatch was 14.7 gigawatt average, relative to 17.4 gigawatt average in Q4 2014. On Slide 5, we present a comparison between the thermal dispatch in the merit and outside the merit order since January 2012 and the trends of the spot price. As you can see on the graph, as of May 2015, you can see a relevant increase in the dispatch out of merit order, which can be seen in grey in the graph and this explains the low amounts of the spot price, especially in the southeast and mid-west. The thermal dispatch in January 2016 is at 12 gigawatt month, gigawatt average, only 4 gigawatt hour in the merit and the rest out of the merit order. The spot pricing generally was R$31 per megawatt hour. We believe that the reason for this high dispatch in this period has to do with the conservative attitude of CMSE to ensure better levels in the reservoirs to face the dry periods in April. However, the position adopted by CMSE to maintain thermal generation in high levels, using dispatch out of the merit order allows for a gap between the formation of prices of energy and the actual operation of the system. This additional cost of dispatch out of the merit order is borne by consumers through the ESS, a charge on the system and makes — skews the formation of prices in the market. This is a point that should be reviewed. Moving on to Slide 6, we show the main information relating to the level of the reservoirs and the energy generated. The affluence seen in the regions, southeast and mid-west where our dams are, closed the fourth quarter of 2015 at the 105% under the historical average. That is above the 74% of Q4 2014. As a consequence, more energy was generated quarter on quarter at the expense of 138%. As you can see on the slide, the volume of the energy generated increased in terms of — in yearly terms and in quarterly terms. In Q4 2015, it was 1,169 megawatt average, the equivalent to 104% of our assured energy relative to 848 megawatt average in Q4 2014. On the right-hand side, we present the trend of the levels of reservoirs which at the end of 2015, had 65% of equivalent energy relative to 35% in the fourth quarter of 2014. Yesterday, just so you know, our reservoirs were at 94.5%. On Slide 7, you see the lowering in the MRE for 2014 and ’15. The lowering in Q4 2015 was 7.1%, that is, 5.1 percentage points lower than what we saw in Q4 2014, which was 12.2%. This is due to the recovery of affluences in the period and this affluence was 116% above the historical average in Q4 2015, relative to 80% in Q4 2014. When we look at the lowering at an annual basis, you can see an increase by 6.5 percentage points. In the year 2015, lowering was 15.8% relative to 9.3% in 2014. This can be explained by the negative hydrology in the first half of 2015, by the maintenance of thermal dispatch and by the lower load. As said before, the GSF and its impact in the Company are in line with the projections. Therefore, there was a negative impact on the Company’s EBITDA for R$593 million in 2015, which is lower than the impact seen in 2014, which was R$816 million, however, a very challenging impact for our business. When we talk about the cash position of the Company, I am going to talk more about it, but since the July 1, 2015, APINE obtained an injunction for all hydro generators like our Company, which prevents the impact of the GSF to be allocated to those generators who have this injunction. Considering that we did not adhere to the proposal of accepting the GSF, we are still covered by this injunction. As regard to our forecast for the GSF impact in 2016, it will not be significant for our result, given our contracted position for 2016 and the low prices of the spot market expected for the year, bearing in mind the current hydrological scenario. On Slide 8, we present the result for the billed energy and the net revenue. The billed energy as reduced by 6% in Q4 2015, relative to Q4 2014 because of the lack of energy sold in the short term and the reduction of volume of energy sold under the contract with Eletropaulo. In a yearly comparison, there was a reduction by 4% in the billed energy, and this was because of the drop in billed energy in the spot market. The net revenue therefore in Q4 of 2015 was reduced by 28% as a result of the lower volume of energy billed in the spot market and a lower price in the comparison between the periods. On a yearly basis, the drop was by 18%, because of the reduction of the energy sold in the spot market, which was partially offset by the greater net revenue coming from the higher price of energy sold to AES Eletropaulo. Net revenue in Q4 2015 went to R$637 million and in 2015, was R$2.6 million. In the upcoming Slide 9, we talk about the cost of 2015 compared to the ones in 2014, the light blue part shows the impact of the price reduction in the spot market and a consequent lower cost purchasing energy due to the reduction of the spot price of the period. It is possible to absorb a reduction of 46% in the cost on a yearly comparison. Now, regarding manageable cost, there was an increase of 2% in the quarter, mainly due to the increase of the line of personnel readjusted to salary of 8% registered in July on a higher headcount in the quarterly comparison. Now, if we assess the real growth, there was a drop of 7.6% in the yearly comparison performance above the guidance that previously was announced by the Company that forecast zero growth in real terms. When we see slide 10, we can see that the EBITDA registered in the fourth quarter totalled R$404 million, vis-a-vis a negative EBITDA, up R$37 million on the fourth quarter of 2014. Throughout the year, the EBITDA was R$1.402 billion presenting an increase of 53% when compared to the year 2014. Our net income was R$233 million this quarter, compared to a loss of R$76 million during the fourth quarter of the past year. At the year, net profits were R$726 million, 62% above what was registered in 2014. The main factors that explain the performance of the quarter are lowering of the period seasonality of physical guarantee and a drop of the volume of energy delivered to Eletropaulo in the period regarding dividend payout. As mentioned, the Company’s management approved a payout of R$463.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2015 and added to the value distributed in 2015, totalled R$721.1 million throughout the year with a payout of 99%. This distribution will be deliberated in the general meeting of the Company that will take place on April 30 this year. It is important to highlight that this payout of dividend was calculated that on registered income by AES Tiete Energia, excluding from this calculation, the spun-off assets of the operations of AES Eletropaulo, AES Elpa, AES Uruguaiana and AES Servicos. For comparison, if we consider the same criteria to determine the value that would be paid out via the result of AES Tiete before the incorporation, our total dividend would be in the range of R$432.1 million, the value would be R$31.7 million, would be the proposed payout and it has been submitted to be approved in the general meeting. On the upcoming slide, Slide 11, we will talk about the investments. The investments of the fourth quarter of 2015 totalled R$62 million. This is an increase of 44% vis-a-vis, the R$4 million invested during the fourth quarter of 2014. Most of these investments were destined to modernize and preventive maintenance of the plants. We would like to highlight our Vermelha, Barra Bonita, Bariri and Ibitinga plant. In addition to around R$9 million that were for projects of IT to optimize the internal operational processes. Throughout the year investments totalled R$168 million, 10% above the investments of 2014 and above the announced projection due to the increase of interest rate capitalized in the period. The investments of these were for preventive maintenance and modernization of our plants and to maintain its operating conditions and to assure the availability of power generation with productivity gains, efficiency and greater generation of revenue in the upcoming years. In our next slide, Slide 12, we observe that operating cash generation of the quarter was R$409 million affected by the drop of the average spot price between periods and an injunction obtained by APINE that is of June 1, 2015 that prevents hydroelectric displacement be allocated to the generators that hold this injunction of the settlement. Through the year, we see an operating cash generation of R$1.25 billion vis-a-vis operating cash generation of R$1.19 billion in the year of 2014. Due to the matters that have been approached previously, the free cash of fourth quarter of 2015 was positive in R$317 million vis-a-vis to positive R$179 million of the same period last year. This performance is due to an increase of R$574 million in operating cash generation. This is a result of a lower impact of GSF, lower volume of spot price in 2015 and an injunction which prevents the GSF to allocate the holders of the generators obtained, now the issuance of a promissory note in December of 2014 of R$500 million and an increase of net financial expenses in a quarterly comparison which results in an increase in interest rates in the period. So, the final balance of our cash in the fourth quarter of 2015 was R$739.6 million compared to the R$501.4 million of the fourth quarter of 2014. Now, regarding the position of 2015, the free cash was R$496 million, totalling R$441 million lower than what was registered in 2015. Now, this performance is due mainly to the settlement of the first issuance of debenture and the second issuance of promissory notes, issued in December — amortized in December 2015, partially offset by the fourth issuance of debentures and lower expense of income tax, R$262.4 million due to a lower result between the compared period. As a result, the cash balance totalled R$739.6 million in 2015, when compared to the R$501.4 million in 2014. Now, when we talk about indebted net, Slide 13, we can see our level of leveraging that close, fourth quarter of 2015, 6.5 times the net debt to EBITDA reflection of the lowering of the [indiscernible] of the APINE injunction and the reduction of gross indebtedness of the Company, our net debt closed the quarter at R$644 million versus R$1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2014 affected by the settlement of the first issuance of debentures on April 1, 2015 with amortization of R$300 million and the settlement of the second issuance of the promissory note on December 17, 2015 with amortization of R$500 million partially offset by the fourth issuance of debentures in the middle of December of 2015. Throughout the timeline of the debt amortization we can absorb a debt of R$161 million that was amortized in 2015. This value is broke out by the maturity of the first series of the fourth issuance of debentures. In 2016, we don’t expect amortization. In 2017, we will amortize R$235 million mainly regarding the amortization of the second series of the fourth issuance. Now, in terms of our evolution of customer portfolio on Slide 14, we can see the evolution focus contracting our own energy as of 2016 considering the termination of the contract with AES Eletropaulo in December of 2015. The level of contracting for 2016 is already at a safe level of approximately 95%. Thus, for 2016, we have decided to maintain a parcel of available energy in order to reduce possible exposure, risks in the short term market due to hydrological risk. For 2017, we have traded 88% of the available energy which guarantees the Company certain flexibility to carry as of 2018. Now, for 2018, we have traded 60% already for 2019, 26% and for 2020 we have traded 12% of available energy as you can see in the chart. Since October, we have traded approximately 140 average megawatts in a period of three years and average prices of R$152 per megawatt hour to be delivered as of 2016. Our expectation is that — in terms of price, will be in the range of R$120 to R$150 per megawatt order to be delivered as of 2018. After this, I would like to give the floor back to Britaldo. Britaldo Soares Thank you, very much Francisco. In a nutshell, the year of 2015 has shown a number of challenges for the electric sector, downturn of energy consumption in the country and the partial recovery of our hydrology, the drop of the average spot price, were strongly affected in the positive variation of the net income and the drop of operating expenses and cost. When we compare 2015 and 2014, the impact of GSF dropped from R$816 million in 2014 to R$593 million in 2015. Now, regarding energy contracting and following the strategy that we defined, well, we have created a portfolio of contracts that is very consistent, that positions us positively for the upcoming year, being able to do our contracting in a consequent and an adequate fashion. In addition to this, I would like to talk about our corporate reorganization. We are simplifying the decision process of the Company, more — that is more simplified and we are preparing the Company to grow, that is a trend and to improve our corporate governance and to improve its liquidity. That would be the unit negotiation. Before we go to our Q&A session, I would like to give the floor to Julian Nebreda, that as we communicated through a relevant fact on the past 17th, now he is chairing the AES Group in Brazil and subsequently, Italo de Freitas that is the AES — is the Chair of AES Tiete. Julian Nebreda Thank you, very much Britaldo. It is a great satisfaction that I become CEO of the Group AES Brazil, this is as of April 1st. One of my missions is to drive the growth of AES in the country through business expansion of generation of AES Tiete. It is impossible to see the future without recognizing what this Company is today. I would like to thank now, Britaldo for his excellent work in the past years that he has dedicated and how he has dedicated his time to the companies of AES. I am absolutely sure that he will continue contributing as the Chair of our Board of our Company, but I also — I now would like to give the floor back to Britaldo. Britaldo Soares Thank you, very much Julian, and now I will ask Italo to please. I give him the floor. Italo Carvalho Freitas Good morning to everyone. I would like to thank everybody for participating in this conference call. I would like to take advantage to tell you that I will be focussed on the operational excellence and looking for the growth of this Company. It is important to recognize the achievements of Britaldo throughout the time. He was a CEO when we were just started, great evolution. He is part of the — for nine consecutive years of sustainable — it was the first generator in America to be certified in asset management. A result of a consistent effort developed in order to guarantee our operational excellence. Britaldo also was in the forefront of the commercial transformation preparing the Company for challenges of the free market. Thank you very much. Britaldo Soares Thank you very much. Now, we will start our Q&A session and now we are at your disposal. Thank you, very much. Question-and-Answer Session Operator [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ms. Carneiro from Santander. Carolina Carneiro Good morning to all. I wanted to ask you a question given that you talked about the Company’s future, the restructuring, so what is going to be the strategy for Tiete now, going forward? Are you going to take part in auctions? Are you going to focus more on existing assets? Are you looking at any M&A? What is your focus today relative to the focus that the AES Group would have relative to the type of source you would be looking for going forward? Britaldo Soares Thank you, Carolina. I’m going to ask Ricardo Cyrino to address your question and then I will add anything as I may deem necessary. Ricardo Cyrino Good morning, Carolina. As regards to our growth strategy, it is in place and we are looking for projects underway. We had two thermal projects underway for 500 megawatt in the state of Sao Paulo and we are developing a third thermal project, also in the state of Sao Paulo. We have been developing projects with solar energy. One of them is being prepared to take part in a reserve auction, a project for 150 megawatt in Sao Paulo with an additional 30 megawatt in Minas Gerais and this is close to Agua Vermelha and we are also looking for opportunities developed by third parties, wind, farms in the northeast so we can look at these projects and assess them. So, we assess opportunities in terms of acquisitions, be it for renewable sources like wind or other sources as we may deem important. Britaldo Soares Thank you Cyrino. As Ricardo said, you might have noticed that there is no substantial change in the strategy. We basically continue to focus on thermal as before and this also has to do with our obligation to expand in Sao Paulo and we’re also focusing on renewable sources. We are developing solar projects in the concession areas and also we look for M&A opportunities and we look for wind projects. So, this is the backbone of our strategy. Something else that we have been doing, and this can be for the mid-term is technology to store energy in batteries and the precedent market still has to be developed. We have to work on the regulatory front. First case is being structured now, and as you might know, AES is a leader in the space on this type of technology and we are bringing that into AES Tiete. Carolina Carneiro Thank you very much. Operator The next question comes from Mr. Peretti from JPMorgan. Henrique Peretti I have a question having to do with the long term price. You have megawatt average for three years at R$152 but your expectation is between R$120 and R$150 as of 2015. If the average price is R$152, why don’t you believe that the price could be higher than R$150 in the long term and do you think it is closer to R$120 or R$150? Given that the prices in the short term are very low because of the hydrology, I could maybe assume that in the short term clients could be paying R$100, and then above R$150 in 2018. So, the weighted price would be R$150 for three years. Am I right in my assumptions? Could you give us a little bit more color please? Britaldo Soares Thank you, Henrique. I’m going to ask Ricardo Cyrino to address your question and I will jump in if necessary. Ricardo Cyrino Hello Henrique, good morning. Yes, the range of price is wider now. As of 2018, your comment is right, the short term prices, especially for 2016 are extremely low, in view of the recovery of the reservoirs and the lower demand. So, this combination of better hydrology and lower demand gives us a buffer for 2016 and the prices drop a lot in 2016. The spot price is expected to remain low in 2016 and there will be an addition on top of this price for the next few years, R$60, R$70, these are this week’s figures for 2016. For 2017, prices are expected to be low. R$100, R$110 per megawatt hour and there is a new variable there, the uncertainty relative to the hydrology. Are the reservoirs going to hold these good levels or not? When you go further away in 2018, R$120, R$150 for three year contracts, so this would cover from 2018 to 2020. So, we have this wider range of prices. We don’t know when the economy’s going to recover. If the economy should recover faster, prices will be driver upwards. If the hydrology is good and the economy takes longer to recover, we will work on the lower part of the range, but in five years, the guidance is for a marginal cost of expansion and we are talking about a range above R$150, but we’re focussed on three years. That is why the range is so big. Henrique Peretti Yes, I was thinking that if the short term price, the market price is R$60, R$70 for 2016 and then R$70 or R$100 for 2017 reaching R$150 in 2018, so the weighted average wouldn’t be R$152 for three year contracts. So, for 2018 you might be closing contracts above R$150. As I read it, the prices as of 2018 would be way above R$150 to give us a weighted average at R$152. So, are you being conservative? Ricardo Cyrino Now, I understood the other part of your comment. Yes, you’re right, when we closed these deals that we are reporting on today, it was October, November, December 2015 and the prices in the market were higher and yes, for 2018 the prices were in the range of R$160 per megawatt hour. So, we expected that prices would be higher also in 2016. That was the market condition at that time. We closed contracts at R$152 per megawatt hour. Since, we expected prices to go down shortly in 2016, in the A minus 1, we sold a lot of energy at R$142 per megawatt hour and these are December prices. So, this volume is what we are reporting on today. Then with the increase in the inflow, we saw a decline in short term prices and they influence the price of contracts in the first two years. So, R$152 are contracts that we closed in Q4, with all the uncertainties that there were at that time in terms of the hydrology, the load for the years 2016 and going forward. Henrique Peretti Oh good. I thought you had signed contracts in the first quarter. Thank you so much for the clarification. I had a last question, what is the profile of clients who are signing this type of contract? Ricardo Cyrino The profile of clients is very varied, very diversified. We have large clients, industrial clients, commercial clients. We have some contracts with generators and few contracts with trading commercializing companies. It’s a diversified portfolio. Operator [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Luciano Costa from Reuters. Luciano Costa Good morning. Thank you all for the call. We had recent news that Duke Energy might sell their assets in Brazil and Tiete is seen by some analysts as a Company that could have synergy and be interested in those assets. Are you looking at these assets? What is your analysis — how do you analyze, how do you assess Duke? Britaldo Soares Luciano, we always look at what is happening in the market and we do that very carefully. What I can say is that this asset has been put in the market many times. So, yes, we see what happens in the market. That’s what I can say now. Operator Since there are no further questions. I would like to turn the floor over to Mr. Soares for his final remarks. Britaldo Soares I would like to thank you all very much for participating for attending our conference call and being so kind to me and I would like to make myself available together with the team to take any other questions you might have about the results of 2015. Thank you very much and have a nice day. Operator AES Tiete’s conference call has now ended. We thank you all for participating. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. 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