Tag Archives: nreum

Eco Friendly: Making Money As Oil Falls

Summary Introduction: auto makers and the aluminum industry. Symmetry between oil costs and lower aluminum. Overview of last year’s pick: Norsk Hydro. Looking to the Future and Growth. Conclusions. Making more of our vehicles out of aluminum equates to continually lower demand for oil. Existing regulations in Europe and America require that each new generation of automobiles be more fuel efficient than the last. Car manufacturers around the globe are switching to aluminum in an effort to reduce gross vehicle weight and by doing so reduce fuel consumption. Yesterday Clark Schultz , SA News Editor released a note about Ford (NYSE: F ) and the closed loop recycling program that has been put in place at the company’s facilities. The system allows Ford to recycle every piece of scrap aluminum that is created during the production of the new F-150. This is helping to reduce the higher production cost of the new more fuel efficient truck . The trend is here to stay and in large part has been responsible for the increase in the price of aluminum over the last few years. Currently, orders by automobile manufacturers show more growth than any other sector of the aluminum market, but we will come back to that later. Although price appreciation may appear slight, it was achieved while working through an excess in warehouse inventories. Inventories are now near historical lows and supply can only be described as tight. Neat Synergy Savings Aluminum production is particularly energy intensive. This makes large producers like Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) particularly sensitive to oil price. There is a nice symmetry to the reduction in fuel consumption and demand for aluminum. As oil prices decline, the cost of aluminum could also decline. It would seem more likely, given the tightness in supply that margins will increase for producers like Alcoa before the price of aluminum declines substantially. In addition, increased recycling of aluminum is also reducing energy demand. It takes about 10% lees energy to produce recycled aluminum than it does by normal production. I covered this topic last year in the first eco friendly article that covered Norsk Hydro (OTCQX: NHYDY ). Like Alcoa, Norsk Hydro is a large aluminum producer and will certainly benefit from these savings and increased demand. I would like to take a look at what separates Hydro from the rest of the crowd. What gives them that extra competitive edge? Norsk Hydro It is almost exactly 1 year since I released my first article about Norsk Hydro. At that time I had a price target of $10.50 for December 2014 and $15.25 for December 2015. I guess we should have a look at performance then and see if we are on track. NHYDY data by YCharts 34% increase for the year is not bad especially given recent market action. The stock did trade 3% higher yesterday on a down day for the markets but at $5.32 we are still a long way from the $10 price target. Even the highs in July and November were just over $6, so what happened? All Values NOK Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Revenue 18.28B 18.27B 19.7B EPS (Diluted) 0.19 0.09 0.29 EBITDA 1.72B 1.45B 2.63B EBITDA Growth -3.43% -15.73% 81.48% Gross Income 2.85B 2.62B 3.67B Some of the highlights:- Revenues were stable throughout the year. ESP grew 222% from Q2 to Q3 based of higher aluminum prices Gross Margins expanded to 18.6% in Q3 before the largest decline in oil price. The company did have some real currency headwinds this year which muted performance. The strong US dollar and Euro both had an effect against the NOK. I do not anticipate a repeat of this in 2015. There is much talk in the Eurozone about another round of stimulus next year. In the US, the FOMC appears to be more dovish and many say we will not see a rate hike soon. Either of these two outcomes will positively impact Norsk Hydro. If both happen then it is even better. Trust in Management to deliver So far, these have all been external factors that the company has little control over. Good management does not just sit around and wait for things to improve; so what has the company been doing over the last year. In my first article, I covered some of the improvement efforts that the company had planned. 2009 was the last time that aluminum prices were at these levels and at that time Hydro was still losing money. The company set forth the $300 plan which aimed to reduce the cost of production of aluminum by $300 USD per metric ton. They successfully completed that program last year, a 35% reduction in CapEx. The program was so successful that they expanded it to cover smelters also looking to reduce costs by a further $100 USD per metric ton. That program has been successfully achieved this year. They then decided to expand this operating principal to the B to A division of the company. At the last earnings call, the CEO Svein Richard Brandtzaeg said: “I’m very pleased to announce that the effects From B to A improvement program in Bauxite & Alumina are coming true. The bottom line as maintenance costs following the power outages are coming down. And we can observe a reduction in cost in our reported third quarter a continuation of the B to A program was a high priority and you should continue to expect positive developments even in this business setting.” So it would seem that the margin improvements in the 3rd quarter are here to stay. The company is the most efficient producer of aluminum in the world. They have been so aggressive in conserving energy costs that the goal is now to be carbon-neutral by 2020. Continued expansion of recycling will be important in achieving this, and as we said earlier recycling adds to the bottom line. The zero footprint target over the next 5 years may initially appear unachievable but the company has consistently delivered on all of their promises so far. CO2 emissions have been reduced by 70% since 1990 and the company views this as a competitive advantage. As the world looks to industry for the answers to climate change, Norsk Hydro is very well positioned to answer. So, here is a list of other developments for the last year, all of which will add to Hydro’s bottom line in the future: February 25th EUR 130 million automotive investment in Germany to lift BiW capacity to 200,000 t/year from current 50,000 t/year April 30th EUR 45 million recycling investment in Germany to reach 100,000 t/year UBC capacity May 8th Permanent closure of 180,000 t/year Kurri Kurri smelter in Australia. Old and inefficient June 13th Enova supports planned technology pilot at Karmøy with NOK 1.5 billion June 23rd New long-term power contracts of a total 2.7 TWh for Norwegian smelters July 3rd Announcement to take control of Søral aluminium plant in Norway September 9th Sunndal production optimized by replacing remelt volumes with SU3 production September 12th Included on Dow Jones Sustainability Indices for 15th time October Alumina production at Alunorte increased to 6.0 million t/year All of which have positive implications for the company going forward. So what does this mean for earnings? Realized improvement efforts from 2011 to 2014 amounts to 3.7 billion NOK ($0.5B USD approx.). Anticipated further improvements would add another 1.5 billion NOK ($0.2B USD) over 2015-16. This does not include the synergy saving expected from the Sapa joint venture. I guess it is time to take a look at that. Is the extruded aluminum division of the company and is run as a joint venture with Orkla ASA (OTCPK: ORKLY ) ADR. There is a nice press release about the formation of the company if you would like to read it. Sept. 12, 2013 press release. For now I will just tell you what they do. They are the global leader in this area. They make building systems and aluminum tubing primarily. In terms of what the goal is, I am going to borrow directly from Hydro’s Capital Markets Day Presentation. •Continue improvement efforts and realization of annual synergies through rightsizing portfolio •Maintain No. 1 position in North America and Europe through unique network, R&D expertise, process capacity and strong customer focus •Develop attractive positions in high-growth markets •Capitalize on expectations of a continued strong US market, and respond to more challenging outlook for Europe and South America A further 1 billion NOK in synergy savings is anticipated over the next 2 years. Once you combine that with the previously-mentioned 1.5 billion for 2015-16, you get 2.5 billion NOK permanent savings over the next 2 years. It is another large reduction in expenditures. In October Hydro was spending about $550 USD per mt of aluminum on oil. How much has that come down? We have looked at all these highlights and have not even talked about growth. I guess it is time to go back to the automobiles as promised. Growth The company expects to see 6% CAGR in transportation between now and 2024. The largest component of which will come from the automobile manufacturers. For each 10% reduction in vehicle weight, manufacturers gain 5-7% in fuel economy. The table below illustrates emission targets from around the world, which will be a key driver behind demand and growth. (click to enlarge) We are already starting to see this shift occurring as outlined earlier by Ford. The economy in Europe is still a concern at the moment, but the headlines yesterday are very encouraging. Mitsubishi November European car registrations: +12.8% (OTCPK: MMTOF ) Jaguar Land Rover November European car registrations: +4.2% (NYSE: TTM ) Mazda November European car registrations: +7.1% (OTCPK: MZDAY ) Volvo November European car registrations: +11.0% (OTCPK: GELYF ) Nissan November European car registrations: +20.4% (OTCPK: NSANY ) BMW November European car registrations: +9.7% (OTCPK: BAMXY ) These headlines are just confirming the data from the prior month, and October sales. Mitsubishi had seen a rise of 68%, Mazda 25% and Nissan again near 20%. It is not all about Transports for Norsk Hydro as outlined in the Capital Markets presentation; the company sees 4% CAGR in Construction and 5% CAGR in Electrical and Electronics by 2024. Conclusion This is a long-term shift in the attitudes of consumers, manufacturers and governments. I can find no other company as well positioned as Norsk Hydro to meet this demand in the aluminum industry. In my opinion the proactive steps taken by management puts Norsk Hydro 5 to 10 years ahead of their competitors. I say that in relation to the ability to leverage the environment, sustainability and corporate responsibility as a competitive advantage. The company’s tag line for the Capital Markets presentation was “Better, Bigger, Greener” and could be seen as a working outline for all industry looking to the future. The fact that the company is going to be even more profitable while achieving this should be a lesson to every manufacturer and producer out there. You do not need to rape the planet in order to make money. The company has too much going on for me to cover it all here. I highly recommend that you do your own research and read the Capital Markets Day Presentation in full. Currency fluctuations bring another complexity to this stock, so make sure that you also take those into account before making your own decisions. I do not view this as a short-term investment, although I do believe money can be made with a shorter time horizon. I view this as a multi-year or decade-long investment opportunity. I am happy to maintain a price target of $15-$16 over the next year or two. Management has faith in the company which has been illustrated by insider buying as recently as last month. I will finish by saying that I also forgot to mention the 3% dividend, which I expect the company to maintain going forward. Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks. Additional disclosure: This article may contain certain forward-looking statements. I have tried, whenever possible, to identify these forward-looking statements using words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “estimates,” “expects,” “plans,” “intends,” “potential” and similar expressions. These statements reflect my current beliefs and are based on information currently available. Accordingly, such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such statements. I undertake no obligation to update or provide advice in the event of any change, addition or alteration to the information contained in this article including such forward-looking statements.

Otter Tail Corporation: Diversifying With Diversification

Otter Tail Corporation is a diversified utility. Its electrical segment supports its dividend payments while its manufacturing and infrastructure segments offer earnings growth potential. Otter Tail has paid a dividend since 1938. From 1975 to 2008, it increased the dividend annually. With the onset of the financial crisis, dividend bumps were put on hold. Otter Tail is positioned to grow earnings from recent investments as well as cap-ex plans in its manufacturing and infrastructure segments. As earnings grow, its share price should naturally increase. Diversification in a portfolio is strongly recommended. With the recent pressure in the oil and gas industry, it’s easy to understand how a single-focused portfolio could be devastated. Of course, allotments to different sectors for the purpose of diversification vary depending on the goal of the portfolio. The utilities sector is typically included to provide a stable income stream. It is not uncommon for a utility company to offer a dividend yield above the market average. With that in mind, many investors aren’t necessarily looking for share price appreciation when they invest in a utility name. After all, the growth potential for a utility company is quite often limited. But, Otter Tail Corporation (NASDAQ: OTTR ) is a different duck – uh, otter – forget it, it’s a different type of utility company. Otter Tail is a diversified utility company operating in four distinct business segments. It produces and distributes electricity to 130,000 customers in Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota. In the other three of its four business segments, it provides manufacturing and infrastructure contracting services under the moniker of Varistar. It is exactly this diversification that differentiates Otter Tail from many of its utility competitors. In its latest investor presentation , Otter Tail management explains its strategy: “Strong and stable regulated electric operations provide cash flow to support dividends.” So, in that regard, Otter Tail is much like other electric utility companies. On the other hand, Otter Tail is also striving to grow: “Manufacturing and Infrastructure businesses provide above average earnings growth potential.” This excerpt from the 2013 annual report details well Otter Tail’s strategy: “The Company has lowered its overall risk by investing in rate base growth opportunities in its Electric segment and divesting certain nonelectric operating companies that no longer fit the Company’s portfolio criteria. This strategy has provided a more predictable earnings stream , improved the Company’s credit quality and preserved its ability to fund the dividend . The Company’s goal is to deliver annual growth in earnings per share between four to seven percent over the next several years, using 2012 as the measurement year. The growth is expected to come from the substantial increase in the Company’s regulated utility rate base and from planned increased earnings from existing capacity already in place at the Company’s manufacturing and infrastructure businesses.” (emphasis added) Dividend Support In the electric utility sector, rates are regulated. Rates grow based on capital expenditures. For the next five years, Otter Tail’s rate base growth is already approved. Based on 2013 rates, Otter Tail has either the lowest or next-to-lowest rate base compared to its competitors in the three states where it operates. Its compound annual growth rate for its average rate base is expected to equal just over 10% per year through 2018. This steady income stream, as mentioned above, is how Otter Tail supports its dividend payments. Having paid a dividend since 1938, Otter Tail is also committed to growing its dividend. From 1975 to 2008, Otter Tail bumped its dividend annually. When the financial crisis ensued, it forced Otter Tail to abandon raising dividends. But, it neither eliminated or lessened dividend payouts through the recovery even though its dividend payout exceeded its net income in 2009 , 2010 , 2011 and 2012 . In February 2014, Otter Tail raised its dividend for the first time since 2008. The chart below compares Otter Tail’s net income to dividends paid. (click to enlarge) Compared to other electric utility companies, Otter Tail is a more-than-fair payer. The utilities sector averages a yield of 3.16 with electric utilities averaging 3.35. In the diversified utilities segment of the utilities sector, only one domestic company offers a higher yield than Otter Tail. But, the chart below displays an important consideration when evaluating dividend paying companies – the earnings compared to the dividend rate also known as the payout ratio. The chart shows the higher-yield-payer, Pattern Energy Group (NASDAQ: PEGI ) and Otter Tail’s direct competitors in the three states it serves, MDU Resources Group (NYSE: MDU ), ALLETE (NYSE: ALE ) and Xcel Energy (NYSE: XEL ). (click to enlarge) The next chart compares the same companies in regard to dividend rate, the stock’s 50-day moving average and the resulting dividend yield. (click to enlarge) Between the two charts, Otter Tail’s allure as an income-producing investment becomes clearer. Growth Support In its non-regulated Varistar business, the three segments are Manufacturing, Plastics and Construction. Otter Tail expects increased earnings potential in these segments. The next chart displays the consistency of the regulated electric segment’s annual net income for the past few years compared to the other three segments’ net income. It is clear in this chart how the financial crisis impacted Otter Tail’s bottom line. (click to enlarge) As the excerpt from the 2013 annual report details, some growth will come from “the substantial increase in the Company’s regulated utility rate base.” The chart below displays the rate base projections and a subsequent extrapolated annual EPS projection for the electrical segment. (click to enlarge) The latter part of the 2013 excerpt references “planned increased earnings from existing capacity already in place at the Company’s manufacturing and infrastructure businesses.” In the recovery years following the financial crisis, Otter Tail undertook two distinct paths. It divested itself of business that did not fit its criteria. It also invested in manufacturing and infrastructure capacity. The chart below shows both historical and planned investments in those three segments. (click to enlarge) The return on capitalization has been growing since 2009 as shown in the next chart. (click to enlarge) In the 2014 third quarter earnings call, management commented about the manufacturing and infrastructure segments: “We expect these companies to provide approximately 25% of Otter Tail Corporation’s earnings, while earning a return on invested capital in excess of our weighted average cost of capital.” Understanding Varistar The company’s SEC filings describe the Varistar segments succinctly: “Manufacturing consists of businesses in the following manufacturing activities: contract machining, metal parts stamping and fabrication, and production of material and handling trays, horticultural containers and produce packaging. These businesses have manufacturing facilities in Illinois and Minnesota and sell products primarily in the United States. Plastics consists of businesses producing polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipe at plants in North Dakota and Arizona. The PVC pipe is sold primarily in the upper Midwest and Southwest regions of the United States. Construction consists of businesses involved in commercial and industrial electric contracting and construction of fiber optic, electric distribution, water, wastewater and HVAC systems primarily in the central United States.” The manufacturing segment of Otter Tail provides custom metalwork services through BTD. BTD has five locations in the midwestern United States. In June 2014, The Fabricator named BTD to the number three spot on its FAB 40 list. The Fabricator is a magazine focused on North America’s metal forming and fabricating industry. The FAB 40 list is sorted by self-reported annual revenue. In October 2013, BTD was honored as Minnesota’s Large Manufacturer of the Year. BTD’s customer list includes industry leaders such as 3M, Caterpillar, Cummins, GE, John Deere, Polaris and many more familiar names. Though somewhat confusing, T.O. Plastics is also an Otter Tail manufacturing company (not a plastics company). It provides thermoformed products and packaging solutions to a host of industries. T.O. Plastics has two strategic locations in the St. Paul/Minneapolis area to serve the many medical device manufacturers headquartered nearby. T.O. Plastics is also food packaging compliant and ISO compliant. Northern Pipe Products is one of Varistar’s two plastics businesses. It is headquartered in Fargo, North Dakota and produces PVC pipe and products. NPP serves many municipal water, rural water, plumbing and irrigation markets in the midwestern United States and Canada. Its products are third party inspected and tested by industry QA agencies. VinylTech also sells PVC pipe. Its pipe is primarily used in sewer and wastewater applications. VinylTech is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona. Its products are also inspected and tested by third party agencies. In the construction segment, Varistar operates Aevenia in Moorhead, Minnesota and the Foley Company in Kansas City and Nashville. Aevenia provides construction expertise to the energy and electrical construction sector regarding transmission and distribution, substations, fiber optics, underground and urban telecom and power projects. The Foley Company is a specialty contractor to the mechanical and general construction industry. It has over 100 years of experience on projects such as water/wastewater, industrial/power, commercial/healthcare and fabrication. As shown in the chart below, revenues for Varistar returned to pre-crisis levels in 2011. However, the net income level is still lagging. Full-year 2014 net income may finally surpass the 2007 level. The second chart displays the profit margins for the applicable time period and reflects the same recovery trends. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) Stepping a level deeper, the profit margins relative to each Varistar segment are displayed comparing 2007 to 2014 year-to-date. As shown, the manufacturing segment is the laggard in regard to margin recovery. (click to enlarge) Varistar’s Outlook Otter Tail recently decided to commit $33 million in capital investment to Varistar’s BTD. At its Detroit Lakes plant, stamping and tooling capabilities will be enhanced. Also, a plant expansion will allow raw materials to be housed in the same facility as production rather than in an offsite warehouse. This will reduce the costs to transport and track raw materials while providing an overall better production flow. This warehouse consolidation and plant expansion will span 2015 and should be operational early in 2016. At the Lakeville plant, paint and assembly services will be initiated. The painting services will eliminate an outsourcing process, which will tighten processes related to logistical tracking and scheduling requirements. Addressing operational efficiencies such as this should help drive profit margins upward as well as provide additional revenue. Otter Tail expects the painting capability to be operational in the first quarter of 2015. In the Plastics segment, Otter Tail is positioned to benefit from the rising global demand for plastic pipe. According to Underground Construction Magazine , the demand for plastic pipe is projected to increase 8.5% annually through 2017. In August 2014, a summary of a recent market research report about the U.S. Plastic and Competitive Pipe Market estimated the industry will grow to $13.6 billion annually by 2018. Plastic pipe has been replacing copper, concrete and steel due to its lower cost, ease of installation, better performance and corrosion resistance. While the demand for HDPE pipe is expected to see the strongest growth percentage through 2018, the demand for PVC pipe is expected to continue to dominate. The domestic commercial construction industry was slow to recover after the financial crisis. The American Institute of Architects reported early in 2014: “With such sustained growth in design activity, continued improvement in construction activity will follow suit. While the residential sector has led the upturn in the ABI, firms specializing in the commercial/industrial sector have reported solid results for most of the past year. Even firms serving the institutional sector have generally been reporting modest levels of growth over the past year.” By its mid-year review , even with weather slowing progress at the beginning of 2014, the AIA found: “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.” The Value of Diversification Otter Tail’s diversification strategy has proven fruitful for its shareholders. For the past ten years, shareholder return was a compounded average of 5.6%. Most of this return is the result of the tidy dividend. Remembering the dividend is supported by the earnings from the electrical segment, the chart below displays the EPS by segment and shows the solid footing supporting the dividend. (click to enlarge) Further, comparing the corporate costs to Varistar’s earnings, the chart below displays two factors – the decreasing costs allocated to corporate and the increasing gains from the Varistar segments. The footing for share price appreciation is solidifying. (click to enlarge) Referencing the planned capital expenditures and the steadily increasing return on capital displayed in the charts above, it is reasonable to further expect share price appreciation. When share price appreciation meets a tidy dividend, a shareholder’s return becomes quite intriguing. Additional disclosure: I belong to an investment club that owns shares in OTTR.