Tag Archives: management

Lipper Fund Flows: Gains For All Groups

By Patrick Keon Lipper’s fund macro-groups (including both mutual funds and exchange-traded funds [ETFs]) experienced aggregate net inflows for the fourth consecutive week-taking in over $56 billion of net new money during that time. The groups had positive flows of $24.8 billion for the fund-flows week ended Wednesday, October 28, paced by money market funds, which had net inflows of $15.7 billion. The other macro-groups all posted gains for the week as well; equity funds took in $8.4 billion of net new money, while taxable bond funds (+$432 million) and municipal bond funds (+$349 million) recorded more modest increases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+3.6%) and the S&P 500 Index (+3.5%) both posted strong performance numbers for the week. The indices were bolstered by improving economic data on the home front, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings reports from the technology sector, measures to ease global growth concerns, and the Federal Reserve’s leaving the window open to a possible interest rate hike before year-end. The week got off to a roaring start as both indices pocketed roughly 2.8% in combined gains during the first two trading days. Strong U.S. economic data and talk of more quantitative easing in Europe were the triggers on Day One. U.S. existing-home sales posted strong numbers for September (+4.7%), while new applications for unemployment benefits were at near-40-year lows. Across the pond, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stated that the central bank may extend stimulus measures if global growth continues to be a concern. The rally continued on Day Two as tech companies Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Amazon.com all posted stronger-than-expected earnings, while China announced a surprise interest rate cut (its sixth in less than a year) in an attempt to revive its slumping economy. The market experienced another bump on the last trading day of the week when the Fed hinted that the long-awaited interest rate increase may finally arrive in December. The Fed indicated that the global landscape will become less of a concern in December’s discussion, and the determining factors will be the next two monthly jobs reports (the Fed is looking for some additional improvement) and the inflation rate (for which the Fed has set a 2% target). The week’s net inflows for money market funds (+$15.7 billion) represented the fifth week in six of positive flows, which brought over $55 billion of net new money into the group. Institutional money market funds (+$11.6 billion) and institutional U.S. government money market funds (+$8.6 billion) were the two largest contributors to the week’s gains. Equity ETFs were responsible for the lion’s share of the net inflows (+$8.2 billion) for the equity group, while equity mutual funds contributed $221 million to the total. The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) (+$2.5 billion) and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLV ) (+$769 million ) had the two largest individual increases on the ETF side. For mutual funds-contradicting the trend we’ve seen all year-nondomestic equity funds had net outflows for the week (-$339 million), while domestic equity funds had positive net flows (+$560 million). Mutual funds were responsible for all the net inflows for taxable bond funds (+$660 million), while ETF products saw $228 million leave their coffers. Lipper’s High Yield Funds and Core Plus Bond Funds classifications (+$787 million and +$570 million, respectively) recorded the two largest net inflows on the mutual fund side. For ETFs, two Treasury products had the largest individual net outflows: The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IEF ) (-$602 million) and the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IEI ) (-$410 million). Municipal bond mutual funds took in $148 million of net new money-for their fourth consecutive week of positive flows. Funds in Lipper’s High Yield Municipal Bond Funds classification (+$181 million) accounted for all of the week’s net inflows.

The European Local Recovery: Introducing A New Index

By Jeremy Schwartz Earlier, we discussed how positive trends in the European economy showing domestic growth are leading the eurozone , while global trade has been one of the weak points. 1 We also discussed how our favorite leading indicators of the economy-both M1 growth and the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator-were showing positive signs that bode well for future trends in the local economy. 2 What could be a good way to position toward this local economic recovery? Creating an Index to Respond Strongly as Economic Conditions Improve At WisdomTree, we build innovative equity Indexes that offer the opportunity to express certain characteristics or have greater potential to respond to different economic trends. If an economic recovery in Europe is truly taking hold, we wanted to create an Index that best reflects these local economic conditions. WisdomTree thus created the WisdomTree Europe Local Recovery Index to reflect attributes of an improving domestic economy that is less reliant on the global export markets. Especially over the past five years, certain more defensive sectors of the MSCI EMU Index have exhibited lower correlation to changes in the economy and the leading indicator of activity, the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator. These defensive sectors thus may not offer the most representative exposures to improving economic conditions within the eurozone. Over the past five years, those same defensive sectors have exhibited lower betas when measured against the returns of the MSCI EMU Index. In times of turmoil or uncertainty, this could be a potentially positive attribute, but if an investor truly believes in the prospects for a eurozone economic recovery, these lower-beta defensive sectors are likely to be least responsive to a more positive growth environment. Defensive Sectors Less Correlated to Changes in Economic Activity and Sentiment (click to enlarge) Positioning in Cyclicals: No Defensives In positioning for local economy recovery, these data points lead us toward a preference for cyclical sectors over defensive sectors. Within the WisdomTree Europe Local Recovery Index, the Consumer Staples, Health Care, Telecommunication Services and Utilities sectors are not eligible for inclusion. Two important factors are driving allocations in the WisdomTree Europe Local Recovery Index: Stock Selection: In addition to the aforementioned sector screens, there is also a geographic revenue requirement to ensure a domestic European focus: constituents must derive more than 50% of their revenue from inside Europe, giving focus to what is happening within Europe and less sensitivity to the global growth outlook. Weighting: We also employ a weighting methodology to maximize sensitivity to improving economic conditions. This process tilts the weight toward stocks whose returns have been most correlated to changes in economic conditions, defined by the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator discussed above. This unique weighting methodology ranks stocks by their correlation to the Economic Sentiment Indicator and, using a smoothed weighting process, tilts weight from the traditional benchmark market capitalization weights toward stocks that are more responsive to changes in economic sentiment and activity. Formally, the weights are set by two factors: 25% according to their market capitalization percentages, and 75% according to how correlated each stock is to economic activity over the last five years (based on each stock’s returns and its relationship to the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator). Bottom Line 3 : Local Focus: WisdomTree Europe Local Recovery Index has nearly 70% of its weighted average revenue coming from within Europe. Opposite of WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Index: This is a distinctly complementary approach to that employed by the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Index, which requires constituents to derive more than 50% of their revenue from outside Europe. The weighted average revenue exposure from Europe in that Index is only 30%. Unhedged Local Exposure Complements Hedged Exporters: There has been a huge amount of interest in currency-hedged eurozone exporters in 2015. The unhedged local recovery basket provides a nice complement both from its unhedged nature and the distinctly different profile of stocks represented in the local recovery Index. Based on the macroeconomic trends discussed in our blog post ” A Recovering Eurozone Economy: Where Should You Position? ,” this local recovery index should also be a focal point for traditional unhedged replacements, as the local economy is showing relative strength within the European economy. Sources Bloomberg, Eurostat and WisdomTree, with data as of 6/30/15. Bloomberg, European Commission, European Central Bank and WisdomTree, with data as of 9/30/15. Bloomberg, FactSet, with data as of 9/30/15. Important Risks Related to this Article Investments focused in Europe increase the impact of events and developments associated with the region, which can adversely affect performance. Jeremy Schwartz, Director of Research As WisdomTree’s Director of Research, Jeremy Schwartz offers timely ideas and timeless wisdom on a bi-monthly basis. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Jeremy was Professor Jeremy Siegel’s head research assistant and helped with the research and writing of Stocks for the Long Run and The Future for Investors. He is also the co-author of the Financial Analysts Journal paper “What Happened to the Original Stocks in the S&P 500?” and the Wall Street Journal article “The Great American Bond Bubble.”

The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF: Contrary Investing

The Greek economy is in extremely depressed conditions. The Greek economy has the support and backing of the EU and ECB. The support, and investment of the EU might make the risk of investing well worth the potential rewards. The famous Greek philosopher, Plato, once said ” Courage is knowing what not to fear. ” Although one might first imagine bravery in some frightful situation, the words might have just as much impact for the investor. For example, most investors have been steering clear of Greece, perhaps not understanding what’s not to fear. True, Greece has been through some difficult times since the collapse of the credit market in 2008. However, many other European Union members had also stood at the precipice but have since recovered. As it is now, the European Union is still feeling the effects of the deep recession in the years following 2008, but the worst has passed for every EU member, including Greece. Knowing what is not to fear from investing in Greece, begins with realizing that Greece is still an EU member as well as a Eurozone member. There has been no default on Greek sovereign bonds and importantly, the European Central Bank as well as the European Commission as well as the strongest members of the EU, Germany. True, the Greeks have sacrificed much, even though they’ve twice elected a government opposed to harsh austerity practices that would have worsened the already depressed Greek Economy. Less than a year after the headline making financial drama, Greece is standing shoulder to shoulder with fellow EU members, doing its part offering Humanitarian support for the tide of refugees fleeing the war torn Middle East and North Africa. Greece, it seems, is still as much a part of the EU, as it ever was. Currently, the economy has extraordinary high unemployment, homelessness and a lack of private sector investment. The point is that Greece has hit bottom and yet survived. Right now, the Greek economy is being supported by the Greek government as well as the EU. Eventually, private investments will return but regaining foreign investor confidence won’t be quick, nor will it be easy. However, economic tragedies have occurred throughout the world many times in the past century only to be followed by remarkable turnarounds. With that in mind, an investor having established a well-diversified and well-founded portfolio may wish to risk capital in this contrarian motif. The best and probably only way to buy the Greek investible market is through the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSEARCA: GREK ) . The fund is small, but has surprisingly good volume for an obscure investment. The fund inception was in December of 2011 when Europe, as well as Greece suffered a recovery relapse, yet as the price history chart demonstrates, nearly doubled by March of 2014. From 2014 to the present, the fund has given up those gains, and again trades at its inception price. The fund has had annual distribution since inception resulting in a yield of 1.77% after fees and expenses. (click to enlarge) Some of the fund’s investments are unusual; the total number of holdings is a mere 30 when counting cash, liquid U.S. Treasuries, and ADRs and common of the same holdings, separately. Before looking into a sampling of these holding, the funds sector allocations need to be specified. The fund weights Financials the heaviest. This is a key component of future capital appreciation for this fund as the Greek financial sector has contracted as far as it could without banks actually folding. With this weighting in the Financial Sector, as the economy and banks recover, it will reflect in the fund’s market price. The second heaviest weighted sector is Consumer Staples. In spite of being a defensive sector, Greek consumers have been hard pressed with reduced wages or job dislocations. Again, by being so heavily weight in a depressed economy, Consumer Staples will be among the first to reflect improvement in the fund’s price as consumers are better able to afford staple products. Consumer discretionary is third in fund weighting. Again, by the logic of economic recovery, as more and more consumers accrue discretionary Euros and once basic needs are met those Euros will eventually find their way back into the discretionary sector. These three sectors, Financials, Consumer Staples and Discretionary accounts for over 65% of the fund. Bank Holdings Symbol Dividend Payout Ratio EPS 5 Year Growth Total Debt to Equity Price/Book Market Cap ( Billions USD) ROI/ROE National Bank of Greece NBG 0.00% 0.00% -70.50% 67.11 0.29 $4.1146 NA/-3.89 Alpha Bank OTCPK:ALBKY 0.00% 0.00% NA 19.38 0.20 $1.346 NA/-4.42 EuroBank Ergasias OTCPK:EGFEY 0.00% 0.00% NA 14.81 0.10 $0.418 NA/-26.24 Piraeus Bank OTCPK:BPIRY 0.00% 0.00% NA 11.56 0.08 $0.521 NA/-24.65 Grivalia Properties Athens:GRIR 3.67% 43.89% of Cash Flow -0.76 7.30 0.59 $0.767 5.15/5.51 Data from Reuters To be sure, it’s difficult to find positive metrics when examining the Greek private banking system. However, the basic premise is ‘knowing what not to fear.’ As long as the ECB is working with the Greek government and is standing behind the private banking sector, there’s little chance that any particular one would default. Further, such an incident would destabilize the already weak economy. It isn’t impossible, but highly unlikely at this point. It could be argued that the private Greek banking system may replicate Japan’s so called ‘Zombie Banks.’ The difference is that Japan has the world’s third largest economy and stands on its own. Greece, with its small struggling economy has the resources and trade partnerships of European Union. There’s no comparison. If there was ever a single ‘Consumer Staple’ company to hold, it would be Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO ) . In this case the fund holds a Switzerland based Coca-Cola franchise producer of non-alcoholic soft drinks, with the well-known Coca-Cola brand soft drinks. Officially it goes by the name Coca-Cola HBC [LSE: CCH]. The licensed franchise pays 1.65% dividend with a 47.86% payout ratio and a market cap of $3.6 billion USD. The company has real earnings at about $0.41 per share resulting in a P/E of 24.31. The fund’s Consumer Discretionary holdings are a little more diverse. Folli Follie ( OTCPK:FLLIY ) is a global fashion and apparel retailer in over 30 countries with over 900 points of sales. Jumbo ( OTCPK:JUMSY ) specializes in toys, baby items, seasonal items books and stationary. The ‘unusual’ holding in the group is OPAP ( OTCPK:GOFPY ) which translates from Greek as Organization of Football Prognostics . The company provides lottery operation services as well as providing feasibility studies for lottery games. Consumer Discretionary Holdings Symbol Dividend Payout Ratio EPS 5 Year Growth Price/Sales Price/Book Market Cap ( Billions USD) ROI/ROE Jumbo SA Athens:BELA 0.00% 0.00% 5.62% 2.06 1.50 $1.098 11.23/13.60 Folli Follie OTCPK:FLLIY 1.56% 3.75% of Cash Flow 2.09 1.10 0.84 $1.124 9.95/11.20 Opap OTCPK:GOFPY 8.50% 18% of Cash Flow -4.71 0.56 2.30 $2.355 20.20/21.50 Data from Reuters The next largest sector holdings are in Telecom, Materials and Utilities. Hellenic Telecommunication ( OTCPK:HLTOY ) is the Telecom Sector at about 12% of holdings. The company has a market cap of $3.81 billion USD, pays a small dividend of 0.94% and has earnings of $0.24 per share resulting in a P/E of 23.15. The company sells at 1.06 times sales and a rather high total debt to equity ratio of over 100. The company has three segments, long distance, land-line and mobile. It should be mentioned that the Greek government held 10% of the company but divested itself of that to Deutsche Telecom ( OTCQX:DTEGY ) . As far as the materials company holdings, Titan Cement ( OTCPK:TITCF ) is, as the name suggest, a cement manufacturer but also related building materials such as aggregates, cement blocks and dry mortar. Viohalco, [Brussels: VIOH] on the other hand, is a cross border merger of Belgium based Cofidin with Hellenic Copper and Aluminum. Materials Symbol Dividend Payout Ratio EPS 5 Year Growth Price/Sales Price/Book Market Cap ( Billions USD) ROI/ROE Titan Cement OTCPK:TITCF 1.55% 24.30 -24.27 1.22 1.06 $1.411 2.29/3.55 Viohalco Brussels:VIOH 0.00% 0.00% NA 0.17 0.54 $0.490 -1.30/-2.33 Data from Reuters It should be noted in the above two examples that the advantage of EU membership has attracted larger, stronger commercial EU entities willing to risk investing in Greece. Public Power Corp ( OTCPK:PUPOF ) is an electric service provider, generating electricity from Hydro, fossil fuel and renewables. It has two subsidiaries: Hellenic Electricity Transmission System and Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network. Athens Water and Sewer ( OTCPK:AHWSF ) is exactly as its name suggests. The interesting holding is Terna Energy ( OTCPK:TREAF ) specializing in renewables, generating power from biomass, wind farms and also provides energy management services. Utility Holdings Symbol Dividend Payout Ratio EPS 5 Year Growth Price/Sales Price/Book Market Cap (Billions USD) ROI/ROE Service Public Power PUPOF 0.00% 0.00% -0.56 0.20 0.20 $1.115 0.71/1.72 Electric Athens Water & Sewer Athens: EYDR 3.47% 0.2% -3.31 1.88 0.67 $0.562 2.99/4.71 Water & Sewage Terna Energy TREAF 0.00% 0.00% -17.46 1.81 0.91 $0.289 1.52/4.26 Renewable Energy Data from Reuters The major Energy holding is Motor Oil Hellas ( OTCPK:MOHCY ) . The company refines oil to lubricants, aviation fuel, gasoline heating oil, LPG and asphalt. Its market cap $1.137 billion USD and does not pay a dividend. Its EPS is about $0.64 resulting in a P/E of 16.50. Its price to sale multiple is 0.15, price to book 2.24 and to cash flow, 7.06. Hellenic Petroleum is essential a petroleum and petrochemical refiner and producer. The company also pursues oil and gas exploration, power generation and energy trading. Ellaktor ( OTCPK:ELLKY ) is a construction company providing buildings, infrastructure, waste treatment, industrial and quarry mining. Metka ( OTCPK:MTKAY ) is an abbreviation for ‘Metal Construction in Greece’ and services the Energy, Infrastructure and Defense industries with metal fabrication products. Industrial Holdings Symbol Dividend Payout Ratio EPS 5 Year Growth EPS Price/Book Market Cap (Billions USD) ROI/ROE Hellenic Petroleum ELPE:GA 4.89% NA NA $ -0.69 0.94 $1.485 -5.84/-11.30 Ellaktor ELLKY 0.00% 0.00% NA $ -0.31 0.36 $0.288 -1.39/-6.06 Metka MTKAY $ 1.15 $0.417 12.06/13.21 Data from Reuters To sum up, the fund has the same structure as any general single country focused fund. The difference being is that the fund covers a small, depressed economy. The metrics in the tables clearly show projected negative growth for most of these companies for the next several years. On the other hand, the nation of Greece is as economically depressed as a nation might possibly become in modern Europe; however, the EU put the brakes on a complete collapse. So the significant difference is that Greece has the support as a member of the much more advance, wealthier, diverse and resource rich EU economy. Further, as noted above, larger more stable European companies are willing to invest capital in Greece. According to Global X, there’s a 0.06% custodial fee and a management fee of 0.55%, hence fees exceed the industry average of 0.44%. The distribution is annual, with a 30 day SEC yield of 1.77%. The return on equity is 2.10%, a P/E of 26.17 and price to book of 0.55. Once again, this is investment will take patience and is best suited for a high risk tolerant portfolios. However, an experienced investor might realize that in the bigger picture, knowing the support Greece receives from its fellow EU members, that there’s little to fear and much to gain.