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The Psychology Of Losing Streaks And How To Overcome Them

By Maria Meramveliotaki-Simon In trading, consecutive losses are very common and some traders do not take it at heart. Instead, they try to make the best out of it, learn, adjust their strategy or money management plan if needed and just get on with it. It is not always that easy, however, to have this attitude. It is not unlikely, if you ever had a number of consecutive losing trades, to have thought that you are an incompetent trader or that you are possibly not fitted for live trading. You may have experienced anxiety, disappointment and anger at yourself or anyone else that is involved (such as your broker or the market). This is a natural human reaction that has a chemical basis; a losing streak activates the production of cortisol, our body’s stress hormone. While cortisol’s primary function is to prepare our body to cope with danger by increasing glucose, the prolonged exposure to it that comes in tandem with losing streaks will render us anxious or even sad. Anxiety and sadness will then work as “containers” for negative thinking. Suddenly, we see the world through those black glasses and we may engage in various unhelpful thoughts: ” I am a loser”, ” I will never make it”, “Should have never traded”. But what happens as you think in this manner? Your anxiety, disappointment and anger increases and with them comes a lot of confusion, feeling scattered, unsure, lacking in confidence and belief. There are some typical ineffective behaviours that traders may then fall into such as Overtrade to reduce losses Revenge trade to get back at the market Become extremely risk averse and trade too small or not trade at all Give up and close trading account Escaping The Vicious Cycle Of Losing Streaks If you do engage in some of the ineffective behaviours mentioned above, it is likely that you will end up trapping yourself in a vicious cycle. This is because risky trading behaviors such as overtrading or revenge trading are likely to make you lose again and, therefore, evoke the same unpleasant emotions and unhelpful thoughts that led you to it. Click to enlarge In order to exit the vicious cycle of losing streak psychology: 1. Become aware of the emotions that have emerged. Ask yourself: What am I feeling? Am I disappointed? Anxious? Am I Angry? 2. Understand the thinking pattern that accompanies these emotions. What is your mind telling you? Is it pulling you down, sabotaging you or maybe intimidating you? Typical thoughts following a losing streak would be: I am a lousy trader. Should have given up long time ago My strategy must be wrong; I have been wrong all the way I cannot afford to just let it be. I must make back the money I lost It is just embarrassing to have lost more than half of my balance 3. Are you about to make trading decisions according to what you are feeling or thinking? Is this the best way to trade? Has this helped you to succeed in the past? 4. You can choose to break the cycle. Having unhelpful thoughts and emotions is very different from acting on them . Remember that if you act on them, you maintain the vicious cycle. Instead of acting on your thoughts, keep your purpose in mind and act according to your goals: Examine if there are aspects of your strategy & methodology that need to be changed. You may opt to do so by going back trading on a demo for a while. But while demo can provide you with valuable insights about your strategy, it cannot simulate real market conditions; your psychology is going to be completely different when you trade live. Take a look at your risk/reward ratio. Are your stop losses too narrow or too wide? It often takes the time to determine the best ratio and you may have to be wrong before you get it right. When you trade, focus entirely on the present moment. Your mind may attempt to remind you of the past, or scare you with negative future possibilities. You must learn not to buy into it, because if you do, you will end up back in the vicious cycle. Your focus must be what’s happening in the market now. Keep educating yourself on trading. You could attend webinars, read online tutorials or join relevant forums. Exercise patience. You may be in the right way to achieve your trading goals and it could be that it just hasn’t happened yet. Be patient, have belief and don’t buy into negative self-talk. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Investment Opportunities Flow From Water Initiatives

By Sherree DeCovny Large parts of the world are running short on water – even experiencing “desertification” – at an alarming rate. Innovative solutions being implemented by the public and the private sectors may offer interesting opportunities for investors. Several factors are driving water shortages. Climate change could have the greatest global impact. Some projections have temperatures around the globe warming by three to four degrees (Fahrenheit) over the next century, which would affect water in many ways. Some areas would stay the same, but many others would be either flooded or stricken with drought. Population growth is also putting pressure on clean surface freshwater resources in lakes and rivers. Brackish water must be treated before it is used for human consumption, and groundwater is harder to use because it must be pumped. According to Julie Gorte, senior vice president for sustainable investing at PAX World Management, 96.5% of all the water on Earth is brackish and 1% is saline. Only the remaining 2.5% is fresh, and of that, 1.2% (0.03% of all water) is surface fresh water. Of the surface fresh water, 30% is groundwater, and 69% is currently locked up in glaciers and icecaps. The more fresh surface water is used, the more it becomes contaminated. Industrial use is a major issue. For example, hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” takes about 5 million gallons of water to frack a well once. The water becomes highly contaminated, and treating it is extremely expensive. Some countries with large populations are experiencing drought conditions, yet much of their water is contaminated. About 60% of China’s groundwater – which makes up about one-third of the country’s water resources – was rated unfit for human consumption by China’s Ministry of Land and Resources. In India, 80% of sewage flows into rivers without being treated, according to a 2013 study by the Centre for Science and Environment. Accessing water in underground aquifers is also a challenge. Boreholes can be neglected for years or can be vandalized (sometimes as a result of war). In such cases, wells need to be rehabilitated. In other cases, springs are unprotected, which allows the water to become contaminated. Many communities lack the financial resources to hire engineers and well drillers with the expertise to access and protect the water. Where water is accessible, commercial applications, such as farming, often deplete the supply. Finally, the availability of ongoing service and support for communities that have previously benefited from safe-water projects is an important consideration. “For every community that receives first-time access, another community somewhere else is losing the access they once had because of lack of maintenance or continued investment in their water system,” says Stan Patyrak, vice president of strategy and development at The Water Project. Innovative Solutions In developing countries, not-for-profit organizations, such as The Water Project, collaborate with local organizations to help improve their capacity to provide sustainable water and sanitation projects. The Water Project’s programs in sub-Saharan Africa focus on water delivery and service, community engagement, hygiene, sanitation training, and ongoing monitoring. Programs sometimes use outside (private sector) hydrogeologists, engineers, and consultants. Moreover, local businesses supply spare parts and provide ongoing maintenance. Drilling and repairing wells, building dams, protecting springs, and harvesting rain are often the easy part. The main challenge is keeping water flowing. People from the community, local and national governments, and the private sector all have a role to play. In developed countries, public authorities are addressing the problem through cultural change and technological innovation. Consider the example of Las Vegas. Of 280 major US cities, Las Vegas ranks at the bottom of the list in terms of rainfall, which may explain why it is one of the most water-efficient cities on Earth. Its public authority has taken steps to protect the availability of fresh water by regulating where grass can be put on golf courses, for instance, and what kind of water can be used in fountains. In the US, California is a case study for drought. In some municipalities, especially near coastlines, salt water is intruding into the groundwater. If too much fresh water is being taken out of the groundwater, sea water will seep in and make the groundwater brackish or saline. It then cannot be used for agriculture, drinking, or hygiene without treatment. One potential solution frequently used in the Middle East is desalination; the problem with this process, however, is that it is not environmentally friendly. Desalination plants suck water from the ocean, put the contents through a reverse osmosis process, and then dump the briny waste back into the ocean. Desalination is also energy intensive and reliant on fossil fuels, although companies are starting to use solar energy and wind to power the plants. In California, WaterFX will soon open the first commercial solar-powered desalination plant. The modular technology is located right where it is needed, in this case in the Central Valley – the heart of the state’s agriculture. Rather than processing ocean water and then transporting it inland, the company recycles unusable, salty drainage water from irrigation into potable water for use by local water districts. “Amazingly, this process changes farmers from being huge water consumers into water producers. They can actually get paid for their water,” says Rona Fried, CEO of SustainableBusiness.com. “And the resulting clean water costs about the same as what farmers pay today, much less than water desalinated from the ocean.” Other methods are being used to minimize the amount of water used in agriculture. Drip irrigation alone can reduce water usage by 20%. Software and sensors allow farmers to track moisture levels in the soil (minimizing irrigation), and drones are beginning to be used to monitor soil conditions from above. Farmers will likely switch to crops that match their local water conditions. California is turning to other innovative solutions as well. Orange County is implementing artificial groundwater recharge systems, which route surface water back into the groundwater, as well as using treated wastewater for such purposes as drinking and agriculture. Los Angeles recently dropped 96 million “shade balls,” which float on water and block sunlight, into a reservoir holding 3.3 billion gallons of water, thereby reducing evaporation and making the water less susceptible to algae, bacterial growth, and chemical reactions. Investment Opportunities As US water and sewer systems deteriorate, an estimated $1 trillion in new investments will be needed to rehabilitate water infrastructure over the next 25 years, according to the American Water Works Association. Further, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that the cumulative capital investment gap for US water infrastructure will rise from $100 billion in 2015 to nearly $200 billion in 2040. “The massive amount of investment required provides an opportunity to invest in municipal securities over the next 20 to 30 years,” says Zareh Baghdassarian, municipal and corporate credit analyst at NewOak Capital. “Four of the top five issuers – California, New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania – offer domestic investors a double tax-exempt status on returns, and the issuers have high credit ratings.” For example, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power’s municipal bonds (5s in 2044) yield around 3.5%, which equates to almost 8% when the double tax exemption is counted. Municipalities have contracts with regulated utilities that provide water to residents and treat the water. Water utilities are public companies, so investors may trade in their stocks and bonds. In addition, they can invest in public companies – which supply the industry with pumps, pipes, filtration and treatment systems, and other technology – as well as water-related technology companies, such as biotech firms. It is also possible to make private equity investments in small companies that are innovating in this space. Of course, because smaller companies have different financial characteristics than larger public ones, returns may be more volatile. Another recent development comes for the exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector. The PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PHO ) is based on the NASDAQ OMX US Water Index. The constituents of the index are selected by Rona Fried (CEO of SustainableBusiness.com). She first looks at how much of the company’s revenue is driven by water solutions, shooting for a minimum of 50%. Companies that are considered leaders in the industry may also be included, even if water is not their dominant product. She then looks at how a company runs its water business from a sustainability perspective. For example, do wastewater treatment companies use chemicals to treat water, or are they using advanced technologies that treat water biologically? Are they improving the energy efficiency of their plants and incorporating water recycling and/or bio-gas? As Gorte points out, investors hoping to earn a return need to keep in mind that any company, security, or idea is capable of underperforming depending on economic factors and the financial/business cycle. Some industries are more cyclical than others. Utilities tend to have less cyclical volatility, and technology companies may be more volatile. Ultimately, Gorte believes investors should look for well-managed companies. “There’s a lot of innovation in how to move water around and treat it and make it available more efficiently with less loss,” she concludes. “That’s a nice, long-term secular growth prospect.” Sherree DeCovny is a freelance journalist specializing in finance and technology. This article originally ran in the November/December 2015 issue of CFA Institute Magazine . Disclaimer: Please note that the content of this site should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute.

Time To Invest In Emerging Markets? 5 Mutual Fund Picks

Slowdown in the Chinese economy, wild swings in currencies and tumbling commodity prices are dragging emerging markets down. Brazil and Russia have already entered recession. Most of the investors fear that the financial crisis in emerging economies is a bigger issue than Eurozone concerns and a hike in interest rates in the U.S. Emerging markets witnessed capital outflows faster than ever in the fourth quarter of 2015. They are now facing a wide range of risks that might weigh on their sovereign, corporate and bank ratings. However, in the face of insurmountable odds, emerging countries have remained relatively resilient for the last couple of years. What protected them from a full-blown crisis was perhaps their beefed up foreign exchange reserves. Macroeconomic headwinds notwithstanding, emerging countries are also projected to grow at a steady rate in the near term. Moreover, fears that have resulted in selling, deleveraging and down-sizing emerging economies also now work in their favor. Bargain-hunting investors should look for investing in this oversold market. Hence, if an investor is willing to stay invested for the long term, then emerging market funds can be a good bet. Investors Pull Money from Emerging Markets Investors pulled $270 billion from emerging markets last quarter that surpassed withdrawals during the financial crisis of 2008. China led the outflows, with about $159 billion pulled out of its economy in December alone. Barring China’s outflows, the emerging markets could have witnessed inflows in the quarter, according to Capital Economics Ltd.’s economist William Jackson. Concerns about weakness in China’s currency led investors to dump riskier assets. Last year, China surprised investors by devaluing its currency, which eventually led to a rout of $5 trillion in the nation’s equity markets. Subsequently, China plunged into bear market territory last month, with its manufacturing activity contracting at the fastest pace in January since August 2012. Separately, according to the Institute of International Finance, investors pulled $735 billion from emerging economies in 2015, the first year of net outflows since 1988. Emerging Markets Risk Intensifies Higher interest rates in the U.S., a stronger dollar, declining commodity prices and a rise in geopolitical tension are adversely affecting credit ratings in emerging countries. Fitch Ratings downgraded Brazil’s and South Africa’s sovereign ratings in December. These macroeconomic headwinds are also negatively impacting emerging markets’ corporate and bank outlook. Meanwhile, private sector debt turned out to be a key challenge in emerging markets. Private sector debt has surged in emerging markets in the last 10 years. Seven large emerging nations including Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey witnessed a collective rise in their private sector debt to an estimated 77% of their GDP in 2014, significantly up from 46% in 2005, according to Fitch’s analysis. Is It All Over for Emerging Markets? On an individual basis, however, most of these emerging economies haven’t added much debt compared to the size of their economies. India’s and South Africa’s private debt-to-GDP ratio increased by 17 and 11 percentage points, respectively, according to Capital Economic Ltd. The private debt-to-GDP ratio for Malaysia and Indonesia also came in at 18.5 and 12.5 percentage points, respectively. Meanwhile, growth in emerging market economies slowed down to a pace of 3.7% in 2015, according to the World Bank. A year earlier, the pace was around 4.5%. However, the World Bank expects growth in emerging economies to rise by 4.2% this year followed by a steady increase of 4.8% and 4.9% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Moreover, Russia’s GDP, which constitutes a major part of emerging market GDPs, is also positioned to contract less, eventually having a positive impact on the overall growth of the developing nations. Russia’s GDP of around $1.2 trillion is about 4% of emerging markets’ $28 trillion economy. According to Alberto Ades, head of global economic research at Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC ), the pace of contraction in Russia’s GDP this year will slow down to 0.5% from last year’s contraction of 3.7%. In 2015, Russia was responsible for reducing about 15 basis points from overall emerging markets’ economic growth. This year, it is expected to shave only 2 basis points. Separately, Daniel Hewitt, a senior emerging-markets economist at Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS ) said that emerging economies will expand at an average rate of 4.3% in 2016, higher than 4.1% last year. He believes easing of economic contractions in Russia along with Brazil and Venezuela will help emerging markets to grow in 2016. 5 Emerging Market Funds to Buy Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience, banking on adequate foreign exchange reserves. For example, India accumulated reserves of $325 billion by 2014, while its reserves were merely $5.6 billion in 1990, according to the World Bank data. Indonesia and Thailand too piled up $112 billion and $157 billion, respectively, by the end of 2014. As many developing countries are in a much sounder shape than they appear, investors might have a look at emerging market mutual funds, keeping in mind a long-term view. These funds generally tend to do well over the long haul due to their higher risk content. However, they may stand out in the short term as well. Emerging market funds had tanked almost 50% during the global financial crisis in 2008, but quickly recovered, gaining more than 65% in 2009. Also, it will be prudent to invest in such emerging mutual funds that have less exposure to the beleaguered Chinese economy. We have shortlisted the top five emerging market funds. They have an impressive five-year annualized return, a minimum initial investment within $5000, low expense ratio and a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy). T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond Fund (MUTF: PREMX ) provides current income and capital appreciation. PREMX invests a large portion of its assets in government and corporate debt securities of emerging nations. PREMX’s 5-year annualized return is 3.5%. PREMX carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 and the annual expense ratio of 0.93% is lower than the category average of 1.16%. As of the last filing, Argentine Republic 7% was the top holding for PREMX. Fidelity New Markets Income Fund (MUTF: FNMIX ) invests the majority of its assets in debt securities of issuers in emerging markets and other investments that are tied economically to these markets. FNMIX’s 5-year annualized return is 4.7%. FNMIX carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 and the annual expense ratio of 0.84% is lower than the category average of 1.16%. As of the last filing, US Treasury Bond 3% was the top holding for FNMIX. JPMorgan Emerging Markets Debt Fund (MUTF: JEMRX ) seeks high total return and normally invests a large portion of its assets in emerging market debt investments. JEMRX’s 5-year annualized return is 4.4%. JEMRX carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2 and the annual expense ratio of 0.77% is lower than the category average of 1.16%. As of the last filing, Argentina Rep 8.28% was the top holding for JEMRX. Fidelity Advisor Emerging Markets Income Fund (MUTF: FMKIX ) seeks capital appreciation. FMKIX invests a major portion of its assets in securities of issuers in emerging markets and other investments that are linked economically to these markets. FMKIX’s 5-year annualized return is 4.6%. FMKIX carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2 and the annual expense ratio of 0.88% is lower than the category average of 1.16%. As of the last filing, US Treasury Bond 3% was the top holding for FMKIX. Franklin Emerging Market Debt Opportunities Fund (MUTF: FEMDX ) seeks high total return. FEMDX invests the majority of its assets in debt securities of “emerging market countries” that the World Bank considers to be on the developing curve. FEMDX’s 5-year annualized return is 2.3%. FEMDX carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2 and the annual expense ratio of 1% is lower than the category average of 1.16%. As of the last filing, United Mexican States 4% was the top holding for FEMDX. Original Post