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New Jersey Resources (NJR) Q1 2015 Results – Earnings Call Webcast

The following audio is from a conference call that will begin on February 04, 2015 at 10:00 AM ET. The audio will stream live while the call is active, and can be replayed upon its completion. If you would like to view a transcript of this call, please click here. Are you Bullish or Bearish on ? Bullish Bearish Neutral Results for ( ) Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Submit & View Results Skip to results » Share this article with a colleague

Volatility Is Whipsawing Investors, Which Side Are You On?

Volatility has been swinging wildly in recent weeks. This provides investors with trading opportunities but the risks are large. I’ll outline my forecast for volatility and what side of the trade I’m on right now. A couple of weeks ago I wrote about how I was taking the plunge and shorting volatility by proxy using the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA: VXX ) and its inverse ETP, the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (NASDAQ: XIV ). I’ve been trading in and out of volatility since the flash crash of last October and while I’ve had pretty good fortune, trading volatility is not for the faint of heart. The moves are swift and brutal and if you’re wrong, you’ve got to be willing to move quickly. Sometimes that means taking a beating in the process but living to fight another day because the profits can be huge if you’re on the right side of the trade. Last time I visited volatility I was, as I said, shorting it. Another VIX spike had just occurred and I took the plunge and shorted the VXX via XIV, the inverse ETP to VXX. I shorted the VXX by selling my long VXX position at $36 and buying XIV at $26 on the same day. It turns out that was a decent move because, as you can see below, the spike end that day. (click to enlarge) I rode the plunge in the VXX to a price of $29+ on the XIV before taking profits and as we can see, the VXX bottomed a short time after. If we fast forward to last week, I actually took a long position in VXX at $31.60 and put on the same covered call trade I outlined for you in early January . This is my preferred method for getting long volatility for two reasons. First, in case you’re wrong, you have some cushion to the downside. And while a full-blown meltdown cannot be fully abated with call premiums, it helps. Secondly, when volatility is high like it is now, premiums on the VXX are downright enormous. You can collect a 3%+ premium for a weekly call that expires in five days when implied volatility is high. That’s how you put the odds in your favor and that’s how I like to play VXX. On Friday, as volatility spiked once more, I sold out of my profitable VXX long position and subsequently went long the XIV, thereby shorting the VXX, on Friday morning at a price of $27.25. As it turns out, I was way early on that move, as the VXX finished the day roughly 8% higher than where I began shorting it and that’s why it’s important to understand the risks when trading volatility; the moves can be swift and huge and cause eye-popping gains and losses in the process. However, I’m undeterred by a few hours of action and as long time readers will note, the first time I shorted volatility in October started out much the same way with large losses that eventually turned around. Of course, I don’t have a crystal ball but I feel that traders are getting tired of the negativity at that while I obviously missed the top, I think I was somewhat close. As for this week and the coming weeks, I don’t see a lot of real negative catalysts. The oil crash story is getting old and the worries about deflation, while well-grounded, can only dominate headlines for so long. The ECB and the Fed continue to bazooka money into the markets whenever somebody sneezes and that means volatility spikes should be met with some buying interest and buying interest means lower volatility. Of course, some unexpected event could arise but that is true 100% of the time and not exclusive to current circumstances. My outlook for volatility is that we’ll see it die down in the first week of February and depending on when the cool down period happens, I’ll look to make my move out of XIV. But for now, I’m short volatility because the VXX at $37 is not a sustainable condition. Granted, VXX may go much higher than it is now and if it does, I’ll add to my short position but at $37, I’m willing to take a bet that the top is near. If we take a look at the chart above we can see a very well defined channel that the VXX has been trading in since December and with shares nearing the top of that channel, that’s why I’ve gotten short. I wish, of course, I’d gotten short $2 later than I did, but those are the breaks sometimes. So while I’m currently sitting on a very fresh, very painful loss on my short position, the chart gives me lots of hope that the losses will be short-lived. I like a short VXX position down to $32 or so and maybe lower depending on how long the selloff takes when it happens, because it will; it always does. I think investors are facing fatigue from the negativity and that fatigue will lead to an exhaustive blow out of volatility, which, just maybe, is what we saw on Friday. Either way, I think lower volatility is headed our way. Disclosure: The author is long XIV. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

ETB Vs. ETV: What’s The Difference?

Summary At a quick glance, ETV and ETB look like almost mirror images of one another. ETV’s longer-term performance hasn’t been as good as ETB’s, based on market price. But based on total return, ETV has done a little better over time. If I had to choose, ETB would be my call. A pet peeve of mine is when a fund sponsor has two similar funds available that, on the surface, appear to be clones of one another. That’s exactly the case with the Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund (NYSE: ETV ) and Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Income Fund (NYSE: ETB ). But when you look just a little closer, the differences are there – they’re just subtle. The same… One of the first things I look at when examining a fund is its objective. In the case of ETV : “The Fund’s primary investment objective is to provide current income and gains, with a secondary objective of capital appreciation.” ETB’s objective is, word for word, the same. And the managers are the same, too. With Walter A. Row and Thomas Seto heading things up since each of the funds’ initial public offerings. Which brings us to one relatively minor distinction between the two funds. ETV IPO-ed on June 30, 2005. ETB IPO-ed on April 29, 2005. This is a virtually irrelevant fact at this point, but it is a difference. Even the standard deviation, a measure of share price volatility, of the two funds is roughly the same. According to Morningstar, both funds have five-year standard deviations of about 9.5 versus a standard deviation for the S&P 500 of around 13. So they aren’t as volatile as the overall market, which can be good and bad. For example, over the trailing five-year period, they each captured around 60% of the market’s advance and 60% of the market’s decline. ETV is a touch better on both sides, gaining a little more and losing a little less. But the variance is tiny. … But different So, in a number of ways, ETV and ETB are virtual clones of each other. For example, over the trailing five-year period through the end of January (neither has 10-year numbers just yet), ETV’s annualized return is 11.4% based on its net asset value, or NAV, and 12.7% based on its share price. ETB’s annualized returns are 11% and 11.2%, respectively, over the same time span. Morningstar’s numbers are total return, which includes distributions, but it’s worth noting that the returns are fairly similar based on NAV. Furthermore, total return since the inception of each fund is only nine basis (0.09) points different based on NAV, according to Eaton Vance, bringing the pair’s performance even closer together. Yield, however, is a noteworthy differences. ETV’s yield is around 9.5%, according to the Closed-End Fund Association, and ETB’s yield is about 8.2%. Right now, ETV’s monthly distribution is $0.1108 and ETB’s distribution is $0.108. ETB’s NAV is a little over a dollar higher than that of its sibling. The biggest difference, however, is probably in the portfolios. At the end of last year, ETV’s largest sector weighting was in technology, at nearly 36% of the portfolio. That was more than double the second- and third-largest sectors combined (consumer discretionary at 14.6% and healthcare at 14%). Technology was materially overweighted relative to the S&P 500, where tech stood at roughly 20% of the index. Technology was ETB’s largest sector weighting, too. But it came in at roughly 18%, a couple of percentage points lower than the index. The financial sector, meanwhile, was the fund’s number two sector, at just a touch under 18%. The consumer discretionary sector came in third, with a weighting of about 14%. The weighting of both the consumer discretionary and financial segments were just slightly above the index. In fact, when looking at the broader portfolios based on sectors, ETB looks far more like the index than its sibling. It isn’t an index clone, but the differences are at the margins. ETV, on the other hand, is clearly making a big bet on technology – that must be where the managers see “opportunity.” The weighting given to each fund’s largest holdings is also worth a comment. ETV, for example, had over 20% of its assets in its top four holdings – all of which were tech names. And eight of the top 10 holdings were tech, with a ninth that could arguably be technology, too. ETB’s top four holdings were closer to 10% of its portfolio. In fact, you’d have to reach out to the top 10 holdings at ETB to get to 20% or so of assets. And the mix in that top 10 was comparatively diverse. “Opportunity” is the key Clearly, the use of the word “opportunity” in the name of ETV is about the fund’s ability to stray quite far from its benchmark. That’s neither good nor bad, but is something investors should keep in mind. Over the longer term (since inception) it doesn’t appear to have done too much to help performance, though over the past five years it looks like it has been a slight benefit. That said, looking at each fund’s distributions, return of capital has been a big component. The use of options strategies virtually guarantees this. However, between 2010 and year-end 2013, ETV’s NAV went from roughly $14.50 to $14.80. The NAV is currently around $14.50 again. So, over last four years, the NAV has gone virtually nowhere. ETV data by YCharts ETB, meanwhile, watched its NAV go from $15.60 at the start of 2010 to $16.25 at the end of 2013. Its current NAV is about $15.85. ETB has been better able to build value for its shareholders than ETV, if only by a little bit. That is likely attributable to the lower distribution and yield – even though ETB’s name includes the word “income.” For my money, I’d recommend ETB over ETV, leaving the upside potential of seeking out “opportunities” to someone else. Slow and steady is more my speed, because the relatively large bets that ETV is taking may pan out, but there’s the chance that they don’t. For example, if you look at NAV back to the start of 2009, ETV actually looks like a better option because of a 39% NAV advance that year, compared to ETB’s 30% increase. That said, go back one more year to 2008, and you see that ETV fell 25% more than ETB in what was a brutal year for the stock markets (ETV fell 28.5%, compared to ETB’s more modest decline of 22.8%). There are always trade-offs in investing and ETV and ETB are no exception. The differences are somewhat minor, and even where they do show up, performance hasn’t been disproportionately impacted over the long term. That leads me to err on the side of caution – the more diversified portfolio and lower distribution of ETB. Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.