Tag Archives: investing
Targeting 35% Upside For The AES Corporation
Summary We are adding the AES Corporation to our “buy” list. Both the fundamental and technical analyses indicate a potential for a 35% gain over the next few years. The key risk is our assumption that cash flows do not materially deviate from their long-term uptrend. Introduction The AES Corporation (NYSE: AES ) has been exposed to a number of headwinds recently, most notably falling energy prices across the globe, rapidly appreciating U.S. Dollar and weak demand coming from the emerging markets, particularly Brazil, Argentina and Colombia. The most recent negative surprise was the Q3 revenue miss of as much as $1.5bn, which prompted the management to revise down their 2016 earnings guidance below analyst estimates. Cost cutting measures have been put forward to offset the macroeconomic headwinds by 2018 and we see them as a necessary adjustment. It is difficult to judge whether they work out as planned, but it is encouraging to see that the leadership is taking the appropriate steps to keep the business viable. Furthermore, Andres Gluski (the CEO) emphasized their focus on free cash flow as a source of shareholder value, and we believe that this is an appropriate measure for estimation of AES Corporation’s long-term investment value. Valuation Our valuation model for AES is based on the company’s ability to generate cash. The key measure of cash flows that we use is free cash flow, which is the total cash inflow from operations minus the dividends and capital expenditure outlays. This is effectively the amount of “excess” cash that the company is making and therefore accruing to its lenders and shareholders. While we do look at historic cash flows, cash flows projections are of crucial importance because markets are forward looking. Our estimated cash flows for the next 10 years are simply based on the previous trend, as we do not have access to analyst estimates for AES. After 10 years, we assume that the growth rate of cash flows falls back to its previous trend and remains on it for the next 10 years, after which it normalizes towards the sustainable rate of 3.9% per annum, based on the average real GDP growth over the last 15 years and the average inflation rate of 2%. The chart below shows the historic (blue line) and projected free cash flows (red line). (click to enlarge) To calculate the total value of the firm, we discount the projected cash flows and the company’s terminal value by its weighted average cost of capital ( OTC:WACC ). Our estimate of AES’s cost of debt is 7.28%, based on their interest expense and amount of debt outstanding in the last fiscal year. The cost of equity is calculated using the 10 year treasury yield as the “risk-free” proxy plus the implied equity risk premium of 9.13% times the historic beta of 1.1675 for the stock. Some of the other key metrics summarized below: •Beta = 1.17 •ERP = 5.98% •Cost of Debt = 7.28% •Cost of equity = 9.13% •Debt to Assets = 54.45% •WACC = 7.73% •Current Price = $9.9 •Fair Price = $26.52 (167.9% return) After discounting the projected free cash flows and the company’s terminal value in 10 years’ time, we subtract the current value of debt and arrive at the total equity value of 17,887,985, which equates to $26.52 per share. With today’s share price at $9.9, re-pricing towards the estimated fair value would require a return of 167.9%. The green line in the below chart represents the estimated “fair value” per share, with the dashed lines showing the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval based on stock’s volatility. (click to enlarge) Relative Valuation American Electric Power Company (NYSE: AEP ), Pinnacle West Cap. (NYSE: PNW ), Firstenergy (NYSE: FE ), Nrg Energy (NYSE: NRG ), Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED ), Cms Energy (NYSE: CMS ), Dte Energy (NYSE: DTE ), Entergy (NYSE: ETR ), Nextera Energy (NYSE: NEE ), Dominion Resources (NYSE: D ), Xcel Energy (NYSE: XEL ), Exelon (NYSE: EXC ), Ppl (PP and), Pg&E (NYSE: PCG ), Pub.ser.enter.gp. (NYSE: PEG ), Edison Intl. (NYSE: EIX ), Southern (NYSE: SO ), Teco Energy (NYSE: TE ), Pepco Holdings (NYSE: POM ), Eversource Energy (NU) are AES’s closest peers within the S&P 500. The table below can help us understand AES’s valuation in relative terms. Table 1: Relative Valuation Table, S&P 500 peers AES AEP PNW … Median Lower Quartile Upper Quartile PE 11.60 15.10 17.20 … 16.90 13.23 20.50 PC 2.48 6.31 6.33 … 6.31 4.81 6.83 PB 1.63 1.58 1.57 … 1.61 1.56 1.75 ROE 17.02 10.13 9.46 … 10.13 9.08 11.51 EPS Growth (5 year) -1.03 2.39 39.79 … 1.03 -1.73 6.80 Beta 1.17 0.58 0.72 … 0.59 0.55 0.69 AES Corporation benefits from very low price multiples, which indicates that the bad news are already in the price. price to earnings ratio of 11.6x is below the lower quartile for the group (13.2x). The same is the case for the price to cash flow and price to book multiples, currently standing at 2.5x and 1.6x, respectively. (click to enlarge) Even more importantly, the price to book ratio of 1.6x looks very attractive in the context of the return on equity of 17.0%. The chart above shows that this makes the company look significantly undervalued relative to peers, given the current industry relationship between this price multiple and underlying profitability. The stock looks attractive from the technical perspective as well. While in the short term the price could fall to as low as 8.6%, a failure to break below this level would confirm the wedge-like formation in play, targeting roughly 35% upside, depending on the timeframe. While a potential break below the support would imply further short term weakness, we see current price as an opportunity to buy due to the 2.5 times greater upside. Of course, if rate hikes in the U.S. push the U.S. dollar higher, investors will need to exercise more patience until the target is reached. (click to enlarge) Conclusion In summary, the company leadership has already taken action to counter the unfavorable impact of macroeconomic developments across the globe. The cost cutting measures that are aiming to support the free cash flow generation through 2018 may or may not work as planned, but investors should focus on risk management and diversification rather than crystal ball gazing. Our discounted cash flow model indicates roughly 35% upside (the lower end of the fair value range, the conservative target), which is also supported by long-term technicals. AES Corporation looks significantly undervalued relative to peers as well, thereby ticking all our boxes. As a result, we are adding this stock to our “buy” list today.
Portfolio Construction Techniques: A Brief Review
Summary The mean-variance optimization suggested by Henry Markowitz represents a path-breaking work, the beginning of the so-called Modern Portfolio Theory. This theory has been criticized by some researchers for issues linked to parameter uncertainty. Two main approaches to the problem may be identified: a non-Bayesian and a Bayesian approach. Smart Beta strategies are virtually placed between pure alpha strategies and beta strategies and emphasize capturing investment factors in a transparent way. The article does not determine which strategy is the best, since I believe that the success of an investment technique cannot be determined a priori. Introduction How to allocate capital across different asset classes is a key decision that all investors are required to make. It is widely accepted that holding one or few assets is not advisable, as the proverb “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket” suggests. Hence, practitioners recommend their clients to build portfolios of assets in order to benefit from the effects of diversification. An investor’s portfolio is defined as his/her collection of investment assets. Generally, investors make two types of decisions in constructing portfolios. The first one is called asset allocation, namely the choice among different asset classes. The second one is defined security selection, namely the choice of which particular securities to hold within each asset class. Moreover, portfolio construction could follow two kinds of approaches, namely a top-down or a bottom-up approach. The former consists in facing the asset allocation and security selection choices exactly in this order. The latter inverts the flow of actions, starting from security selection. No matter the kind of approach, investors do need a precise rule to follow when building a portfolio. In fact, the choice of asset classes and/or of securities has to be done rationally. The range of existing strategies is considerably wide. Indeed, one may allocate his/her own capital by splitting it equally among assets, optimizing several functions and/or applying some constraints. Every day in the asset management industry, there are plenty of strategies that are proposed to investors all over the world. The aim of this article is to provide the reader with a comprehensive summary of those. Static and Dynamic Optimization Techniques To begin with, it is worth distinguishing the existing portfolio optimization techniques by the nature of their optimization process. In particular, static and dynamic processes are considered. In the former case, the structure of a portfolio is chosen once for all at the beginning of the period. In the latter case, the structure of the portfolio is continuously adjusted (for a detailed survey on this literature, see Mossin (1968), Samuelson (1969), Merton (1969, 1971), Campbell et al (2003), Campbell & Viceira (2002). Maillard (2011) reports that for highly risk-averse investors, the difference between the two is moderate, whereas it is larger for investors who are less risk averse. Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization Within the static models, it is common knowledge that the mean-variance optimization suggested by Henry Markowitz represents a path-breaking work, the beginning of so-called Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). In fact, Markowitz ( 1952 , 1959 ) presents a revolutionary framework based on the mean and variance of a portfolio of “N” assets. In particular, he claims that if investors care only about mean and variance, they would hold the same portfolio of risky assets, combined with cash holdings, whose proportion depends on their risk aversion. Despite of its wide success, this theory has been criticized by some researchers for issues linked to parameter uncertainty. In fact, the true model parameters are unknown and have to be estimated from the data, resulting in several estimation error problems. The subsequent literature has focused on improving the mean-variance framework in several ways. However, two main approaches to the problem may be identified, namely a non-Bayesian and a Bayesian approach. Two Approaches As far as the former is concerned, it is worth reporting several studies. For instance, Goldfarb & Iyengar (2003) and Garlappi et al. (2007) provide robust formulations to contrast the sensitivity of the optimal portfolio to statistical and modelling errors in the estimates of the relevant parameters. In addition, Lee (1977) and Kraus & Litzenberger (1976) present alternative portfolio theories that include more moments such as skewness; Fama (1965) and Elton & Gruber (1974) are more accurate in describing the distribution of return, while Best & Grauer (1992), Chan et al. (1999) and Ledoit & Wolf (2004a, 2004b) focus on methods that aim to reduce the estimation error of the covariance matrix. Other approaches involve the application of some constraints. MacKinlay & Pastor (2000) impose constraints on moments of assets returns, Jagannathan & Ma (2003) adopt short-sale constraints, Chekhlov et al (2000) drawdown constraints, Jorion (2002) tracking-error constraints, while Chopra (1993) and Frost & Savarino (1988) propose constrained portfolio weights. On the other hand, the Bayesian approach plays a prominent role in the literature. It is based on Stein (1955) , who proved the inadmissibility of the sample mean as an estimator for multivariate portfolio problems. In fact, he advises to apply the Bayesian shrinkage estimator that minimizes the errors in the return expectations, rather than trying to minimize the errors in each asset class return expectation separately. In following studies, this approach has been implemented in multiple ways. Barry (1974) and Bawa et al (1979) use either a non-informative diffuse prior or a predictive distribution obtained by integrating over the unknown parameter. Then, Jobson & Korkie (1980), Jorion (1985, 1986) and Frost & Savarino (1986) use empirical Bayes estimators, which shrink estimated returns closer to a common value and move the portfolio weights closer to the global minimum-variance portfolio. Finally, Pastor (2000), and Pastor & Stambaugh (2000) use the equilibrium implications of an asset-pricing model to establish a prior. Simpler Models To attempt portfolio construction throughout optimization is not the only alternative, though. In fact, alongside the wide range of portfolio optimization techniques, it is also worth considering other rules that require no estimation of parameters and no optimization at all. DeMiguel at al (2005) define them as ” simple asset-allocation rules “. For instance, one could just allocate all the wealth in a single asset, i.e., the market portfolio . Alternatively, investors may adopt the 1/N rule, dividing their wealth according to an equal-weighting scheme. At this point, the reader may wonder why one should consider this kind of rules. In fact, techniques that require no optimization should not be optimal according to any measure. However, as far as the naïve 1/N is concerned, some researchers have reported some interesting results. For instance, Benartzi & Thaler (2001) and Liang & Weisbenner (2002) show that more than a third of direct contribution plan participants allocate their assets equally among investment options, obtaining good returns. Moreover, Huberman & Jiang (2006) find similar results. Similarly, DeMiguel et al (2009) evaluate 14 models across seven empirical datasets, finding that none is consistently better than the 1/N rule in terms of Sharpe ratio, certainty-equivalent return or turnover. However, Tu & Zhou (2011) challenge DeMiguel et al. (2009) combining sophisticated optimization approaches with the naïve 1/N technique. Their findings confirm that the combined rules have a significant impact in improving the sophisticated strategies and in outperforming the simple 1/N rule. Moreover, other naïve rules are reported by Chow et al. (2013), such as the 1/σ and the 1/β, included in the so-called low-volatility investing methods. In particular, they report that low-volatility investing provides higher returns at lower risk than traditional cap-weighted indexing, at the cost of underperformance in upward-trending environments. Smart Beta Strategies Finally, it is worth mentioning a special group of strategies that are extremely popular among asset management firms, known as Smart Beta strategies. Smart Beta strategies are virtually placed between pure alpha strategies and beta strategies, and emphasise capturing investment factors in a transparent way, such as value, size, quality and momentum. Examples of these strategies are risk parity, minimum volatility, maximum diversification and many others. Apart from the wide range of these kinds of techniques, it is critical to highlight why they are so diffuse among practitioners. Their enormous success is due to several interesting advantages, including the flexibility to access tailored market exposures, improved control of portfolio exposures and the potential to achieve improved return/risk trade-offs. Final Remarks This article aims to be a summary of the most notorious techniques considered in the existing literature, but the list is far from being complete. Moreover, the article does not analyze which strategy is the best, since I believe that the success of an investment technique depends on several factors, including the time frame considered, the kind of assets, the geography of the examined portfolio, the client’s preferences, and it surely must rely on a quantitative application using real or simulated data.