Qunar’s Airline Battle Won’t Slug No. 1 Chinese Agency Ctrip: ITG
Qunar ‘s ( QUNR ) ongoing dispute with China’s airlines won’t hurt China’s No. 1 online travel agent Ctrip.com ( CTRP ), which is expected to report March-quarter travel sales that doubled vs. last year, ITG analyst Henry Guo said. Ctrip and Qunar stocks split on the stock market today , with shares of Ctrip 1.7%, as Qunar fell 1.5%. IBD’s 11-company Leisure-Travel Booking industry group was up a fraction. For Q1, Guo expects Ctrip to report 4.19 billion to 4.29 billion yuan ($640 million to $650 million), topping the consensus view for 4.16 billion yuan. Ctrip hasn’t yet set a date for its Q1 earnings release. That outperformance would follow a months-long battle with flagship carrier Air China — along with some other local airlines including Hainan Airlines and its Hong Kong Airlines unit, as well as China Eastern’s Shanghai Airlines — over fees charged by booking agents such as Qunar. Ctrip acquired a stake in Qunar after the two formed a partnership last year. In the wake of airlines’ refusal to list on Qunar.com, the site now directs users to Ctrip.com or to airlines’ official websites, Guo wrote in a research note. “We believe this should help drive Ctrip’s organic transportation revenue growth and partially offset Qunar’s air-ticketing weakness,” he wrote. Hotel occupancy in China fell to 53.1% in Q1 from 53.6% in the prior quarter, Guo said, but revenue per available room surged 2.2% year over year, “suggesting improved monetization for the whole hotel industry.” At the same time, he says InterContinental Hotels Group ( IHG ) and Hilton Worldwide ( HLT ) reported 8.3% and 8% year-over-year growth for their Chinese operations, respectively, and Marriott International ( MAR ) saw revenue per available room in Asia rise 6.8% vs. last year. Guo expects Ctrip to report a 76% to 86% jump in accommodations sales vs. the year-earlier quarter, topping the company’s guidance for 70%-80% growth. He sees Ctrip’s travel segment more than doubling revenue. Packaged tours — one of Ctrip’s growth engines — has benefited from outbound travel to high-demand destinations like Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia, Guo wrote. Relaxed visa requirements have helped fuel outbound travel. He expects 52% year-over-year growth in this segment.