Tag Archives: ideas

Equity CEFs: Enough Is Enough, Consider The Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund

Summary I realize this is a “have” market and you have to own what works but sometimes, the valuation of some CEFs become so absurd, you can’t ignore it. A number of CEFs are getting to this absurd level, including some REITs, but one fund I have owned a small position in for years I believe is especially attractive. You would be hard pressed to find an equity CEF that has had as good an NAV performance historically as the Cohen & Steers Infrastructure fund, despite a subpar year. I’m going to write this article rather quickly after yesterday’s market close since I wanted to get this out fresh today. The disgust in this market is becoming palpable as investors throw in the towel on what doesn’t work and are forced to buy what does, even at all-time highs. But there comes a point, like in the fall of 2008, when investors are flat-out wrong and making what I would consider to be emotional and short-sighted decisions. I believe we are at such an inflection point with a number of equity CEFs, but none more so than the Cohen & Steers Infrastructure fund (NYSE: UTF ) , $18.96 market price, $23.18 NAV, -18.2% discount, 8.4% current market yield . You read that right. UTF now trades at an unbelievable -18.2% discount with a market price well over $4 below its NAV. Think about this for a minute. UTF went public back in March of 2004 at a $19.10 NAV and a $20 market price (after a $0.90 sales credit per share). So after paying quarterly distributions averaging say, 6% to 7% annually, Cohen & Steers has still been able to grow UTF’s NAV from $19.10 to $23.18 today, even with some subpar years like 2015. You would be hard pressed to find any other equity CEF that has accomplished that. How strong has UTF been historically? Here is UTF’s Annual Performance figures taken from UTF’s Fact Sheet dated 9/30/2015. (click to enlarge) How many CEFs do you think have beaten the S&P 500 in both total return market price and NAV since their inception? Trust me, not many. And UTF has accomplished this as a global equity fund, including a portion of its portfolio in high yield corporate bonds and preferred securities. UTF also happens to be one of the largest CEFs at $2.8 billion in total assets so it is quite liquid. Here are UTF’s top 10 holdings as of 9/30/15. (click to enlarge) Now has UTF had a good past year? No, but I guess if you don’t own Facebook (NASDAQ: FB ) , Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ) , Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG ) (NASDAQ: GOOGL ) o r Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX ) in your portfolio somewhere, you probably wouldn’t be having a good year either it seems. Year-to-date, UTF’s NAV is down -5.5%, but that’s hardly what I would call a disaster, especially considering what sectors UTF invests in. UTF is an infrastructure fund which means its owns mostly global stocks in the utility, communication tower, toll roads, rails and satellite sectors. Here is UTF’s sector and geographic breakdown. (click to enlarge) Obviously, UTF is invested in some areas that are under an immense amount of pressure this year, i.e. energy MLPs for example, but you’re also talking about a management team that has been in place since the fund’s inception and has weathered many storms. Barron’s also recently wrote a very positive article on two of UTF’s top positions shown above, Crown Castle International (NYSE: CCI ) and American Tower (NYSE: AMT ) , when it came out with this article on October 17th, How To Profit From The Real Estate Play In Wireless Stocks . If you can’t access the article since Barron’s is subscription based, here is a brief highlight from the article. The companies have slightly different identities. American Tower is the largest with the most international exposure, while Crown Castle has focused on U.S. urban areas. SBA is the smallest and fastest-growing. But the opportunity is the same. The stocks could each rise 20% or more in the coming 18 months, especially as investors shrug off near-term concerns and focus on the big picture. Also consider that UTF has been steadily raising its distributions over the years, most recently this past March from $0.37/share to $0.40/share and now offers an 8.4% current market yield, a healthy bonus over its very reasonable 6.9% NAV yield. Conclusion You almost have to go back to 2008 to find opportunities like this in my opinion. Now I have no crystal ball in regards to where interest rates go or if the utility, energy or “have not” sectors gets worse before they get better, but I do know that when emotions drive CEF market prices to these discount levels, your risk/reward improves dramatically if you just hold onto the fund and even add to your position on any added weakness. The Federal Reserve’s resolve to raise interest rates does not mean the end of anything and everything interest rate sensitive, though that seems to be the consensus of the markets right now, particularly in CEFs. But at some point, there will be a leveling of emotions and sanity will creep back into the market. UTF has been one of the best long term performers of all the CEFs I follow though it has historically traded at a wide discount. But that shouldn’t deter you from owning this fund as that is hardly an indication of its historic market price performance and in fact, some of the worst CEFs I follow trade at premium market prices despite having horrible market price performance. UTF’s -18.2% discount may be a valuation anomaly but it also presents an opportunity for investors to pick up one of the best windfall yield bonuses I have seen in years. In other words, the fund has only to cover a modest 6.9% NAV yield, which is a big reason why UTF has been so successful at growing its NAV over the years as a leveraged CEF, but because of the -18.2% discount, investor’s can receive a bonus 8.4% windfall market yield. Emotions are running high right now and investors, big and small, are jettisoning anything that hasn’t “worked” this year to chase what has. Though I have also been forced to adapt to this strategy, I also believe there are opportunities that can become either a “have” or “have not” as well. UTF has now become a “must have” opportunity.

Things Won’t Stay The Same

My kids keep growing up, and it continues to surprise me. One who was just learning to stay upright is now a constant chatterbox and a daredevil on her Strider bike. The other seems to have grown a foot this year, and has gone from quiet and reserved to confident ringleader of her friends. But the realization I’ve recently had is that it is so easy for us to assume the current state of affairs will perpetuate into the future. The little baby who was so happy to sit and play with a toy was suddenly gone, whether I was prepared for it or not. Someday soon, both of my girls will be in high school fighting over clothes and car keys. In the moment, that is hard to remember. Whether things are great and everyone in the house is sleeping and happy and playing nicely together or we’re up four times a night and separating a fight every twenty minutes, it is easy to believe that this is how things will always be. In behavioral finance, this effect is known as recency bias . It is our strong tendency to extrapolate recent events forward into the future. And investors do this all the time. I mean all the time . In March 2009, as the stock market was approaching generational lows, the most popular headlines and predictions were that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, having just passed below 7000, would continue to drop as low as 3000. And of course, the most famous example of recency bias is the book Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market . Published near the height of the stock market in 1999, when the DJIA was just above 11,000, the book was wildly wrong. But it was a perfect example of how easy it is for us to see a pattern and project it into the future. We haven’t learned much since the 2008-2009 bear market or the late ’90s tech bubble. Oil prices seem to been in a near free fall for the past few years. So guess what is being predicted? More declines! Goldman Sachs suggested that oil prices could go to $20 a barrel in September. Of course, in 2008, Goldman Sachs also predicted that prices, then over $140 a barrel, would eventually surpass $200 a barrel. Making professional predictions is fairly easy – you take the recent changes and extrapolate them into the future. Tada! And of course, it isn’t just professionals making outlandish predictions that fall prey to recency issues. Individual investors are just as bad. Emerging markets have been dismal for the past several years. Returns have been negative so far in 2015, and emerging market stocks lost money in 3 of the last 4 calendar years. In May 2015, EM stocks started a nasty slide. By September, investors assuming that the recent past would continue indefinitely had had enough, and started pulling money out of these funds. Here’s what flows out of Vanguard’s Emerging Markets ETF looked like this year. Investors love to hear and talk about what is going on in the market “right now.” We love this idea because we assume that “right now” will continue into the future. But what is true today won’t necessarily be true tomorrow. The world is a changing place, and always has been. Don’t be fooled thinking anything else.

China Investing: Should You Buy These New ETFs?

China investing is back in focus, thanks to some solid trading out of that country and more hopes for stimulus measures. ETFs tracking the nation have actually been pretty good performers to kick off Q4, and there is hope that they can regain some of their lost momentum. It also appears that ETF issuers are starting to grow more confident in the China ETF space, and have begun to once again launch new products in the segment. While it is nothing like what we saw at the height of the boom, there are now close to three dozen China funds trading on the marketing, including several that launched just in October. New China ETFs But while these China ETFs might be brand new, are they better options for investors? After all, these fresh China ETFs go beyond the plain vanilla indexes and seek to offer investors slightly different options in the space. So let’s take a closer look at some of these new choices for investors: SPDR MSCI China A Shares IMI ETF (NYSEARCA: XINA ) This ETF from SPDR looks to give investors exposure to the China A-shares market, charging just 65 basis points a year in fees. While it is similar to other ETFs, SPDR does use its own SSGA division to manage the fund instead of a third party, and some believe this could be a safer way to play the space. Deutsche X-trackers CSI 300 China A-Shares Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: ASHX ) / CSOP MSCI China A International Hedged ETF (NYSEARCA: CNHX ) Thanks to recent China currency devaluations, ETF issuers are hoping to strike gold by offering up A-shares hedged ETFs. These funds look to benefit if China continues to devalue the yuan, but let’s remember that only a tiny devaluation has taken place, and it has been nothing like what we have seen in the case of Japan or even Europe. CSOP China CSI 300 A-H Dynamic ETF (NYSEARCA: HAHA ) While the ticker might be a joke, the strategy behind this ETF is nothing to laugh at, as it is pretty innovative. The fund will look at both A-shares and H-shares investments and choose the version which is the most undervalued in an intriguing way to deliver outperformance. More Information For extra information on the China ETF flurry and if these new funds are right for you (as well as my favorites from these newcomers), make sure to watch our short video on the topic below: Original Post