Federal regulators appear set to go forward this spring with the auction of airwaves now owned by local TV broadcasters, but other spectrum-related developments loom as wild cards that could increase supply, thereby impacting wireless industry competition and M&As. Those other developments include the contract award for FirstNet, the federal government’s plan to create a nationwide wireless broadband network dedicated to public safety; the re-emergence of LightSquared, renamed Ligado Networks, from Chapter 11; and whether wireless firms succeed in lobbying to use commercial LTE technology in unlicensed spectrum now allocated to Wi-Fi. The Federal Communications Commission still plans to begin the “Broadcast Incentive Auction” on March 29. The auction, which could last five to six months, will free up an estimated 60 megahertz to 80 MHz of prime, low-frequency radio spectrum for wireless services. Results of the spectrum auction could affect the competitive future of IBD Leaderboard company AT&T ( T ), which has seen accelerating growth in recent quarters, and rival Verizon Communications ( VZ ) — a member of IBD’s Big Cap 20 — as well as highly rated Comcast ( CMCSA ). AT&T and Verizon are expected to buy TV airwaves in the auction, and cable leader Comcast also will likely bid, say analysts. Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL ) Google has ruled itself out. AT&T and Verizon own more than 70% of low-frequency airwaves in the top 100 U.S. markets. Low-frequency airwaves travel over long distances and can pass through walls, improving in-building services. The FCC will impose a “quiet period” that bans negotiation over spectrum until the auction is over. Satellite TV broadcaster Dish Network ( DISH ) has acquired some 75 MHz of midband spectrum — which covers a little less territory than low-frequency spectrum — but it lacks a wireless network partner and is in limbo until the auction ends, analysts say. Dish has filed to bid in the auction, but observers are uncertain that it will. The auction’s outcome could well raise or lower the odds of some major deals, long rumored in the industry: — that Comcast will acquire a wireless services provider; — that a cable TV leader will strike an alliance with Verizon; — that Verizon will enter into a spectrum-leasing deal with Dish; — that Dish and T-Mobile will merge. But even beyond the auction, by early 2017, further developments involving the FirstNet contract, Ligado, unlicensed-LTE and satellite wireless firm Globalstar ( GSAT ) could impact Dish’s plans, as well as the spectrum strategies of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. That’s because all these elements provide alternatives for network capacity, aside from the auction. Here’s a run-down of several scenarios: — FirstNet. Whoever wins this first-responder contract would need to invest in network infrastructure. Congress has set aside 20 MHz of spectrum — a wide swath of the airwaves — in the “D block” of the 700 MHz frequency band for the public safety network. The winning bidder is expected to enter into a lease agreement with the FirstNet authority for access to the 20 MHz of prime airwaves. While the FirstNet public safety network would be prioritized for emergency responders, the winning bidder would also be able to use the spectrum for commercial purposes and consumer services. The government will award the FirstNet contract after the TV airwave auction ends, if the government’s timetable proceeds as planned. Verizon has been viewed as the front-runner, but AT&T has made clear that it’s interested. T-Mobile ( TMUS ) could bid but faces long odds vs. AT&T and Verizon, analysts say. — LTE-U. Verizon and T-Mobile have been biggest proponents of developing a technical standard that would allow 4G LTE commercial technology to use unlicensed spectrum. Google, Microsoft ( MSFT ) and the Wi-Fi Alliance, which certifies Wi-Fi network gear, have lobbied the FCC to protect unlicensed airwaves, saying that interference could impair Wi-Fi services. Apple ( AAPL ), a Wi-Fi Alliance member, has not said anything publicly. Verizon and AT&T claim that no special LTE-U equipment certification is needed as long as devices meet certain basic FCC rules for unlicensed spectrum. Chipmaker Qualcomm ( QCOM ) has been backing LTE-U deployment. The FCC in February allowed Qualcomm to move ahead with LTE-U testing at two Verizon facilities to demonstrate that the technology would not interfere with Wi-Fi. Qualcomm and the Wi-Fi Alliance have been working on “coexistence” plans. The cable TV industry has a big stake in the outcome, analysts say, because Comcast, Charter Communications ( CHTR ) and others have been expanding public Wi-Fi networks. While Verizon has targeted 3.5 GHz spectrum in the near term, it could try to carry out LTE-U in higher 5 GHz airwaves that cable TV firms covet. If LTE-U gets a green light, the Apple iPhone and other devices could support the technology by 2018. — LightSquared , now Ligado. Former Verizon Chairman and CEO Ivan Seidenberg is chairman of Ligado, while former FCC Chairman Reed Hundt is a board member. Ligado, controlled by private equity firms, has a sizable 35 MHz of midband spectrum. After emerging from bankruptcy, Ligado reached agreements with tractor maker Deere ( DE ) and GPS device maker Garmin ( GRMN ), resolving issues over potential global positioning system interference. While Ligado might provide services to industries such as energy or transport, or pursue next-generation 5G services, it could sell the airwaves as well. The company hasn’t spelled out its new business model, analysts say, and it’s still awaiting some FCC approvals to use the spectrum for commercial purposes. — Globalstar. The FCC has been studying Globalstar’s petition to use airwaves in the midfrequency 2.4 GHz block for wireless services. The Wi-Fi Alliance and other groups have opposed Globalstar’s plans, citing possible interference issues. Globalstar could lease capacity to a wireless firm or an Internet company if it wins at the FCC. Globalstar’s stock, though, has plunged about 50% in the past year to near 1.40 while its FCC approval has languished. Image provided by Shutterstock .